The distribution of third-place preferences will be fundamental in this weekend’s Farrer by-election. Whoever wins, be assured that the voters will have Australia’s best interests in mind when they cast their vote.
Much has been written about the 9 May Farrer by-election, mostly from a distance. Here’s an Albury perspective, starting from the events following former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s resignation, when the campaign proper began. The resignation was surprising only in the sense that Ley’s tenure as opposition leader was terminated shy of an ungenerous 12 months.
With lessons learned from the Coalition’s recent federal election defeat, an already-established Milthorpe and her team had the jump. That jump was boosted by early endorsements of Milthorpe from two sitting Members of Parliament: Australia’s most popular politician, David Pocock, with his city-centric edges smoothed on the right flank by cross-border Independent Helen Haines.
One Nation’s 7 March campaign launch and candidate announcement featured Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, accompanied by a hype machine full of gluttony and febrility that seemed to overawe the characteristically stolid PHON candidate, David Farley. An electric 600-strong crowd of Hansonite faithful oozed a confidence that this was a movement whose time had arrived.
Since then, Milthorpe and Farley have been the two candidates popular media opinion suggests will prise a crown jewel from the Coalition, delivering the latest blow in the vengeful destruction of a two-party system. It has been a powerful narrative, and something to write about, at least.
The Coalition cannot be discarded. Michelle Milthorpe has effectively carved into the middle-class base of Liberal support in Albury. But the Nationals should still command attention in this discussion. For years, their man, Tim Fischer, was renowned as a gentlemen, and in Farrer, one of the last of a kind, before things went terribly wrong. Voters are sensitive to this. The Nationals have not hesitated to trade on the sentiment in Farrer that Fischer is one of ours.
What is clear is that a two-candidate final count will not be a Coalition duel, but this is inconsequential. Consequential, as we’ve all heard, are preferences. But just how? It means Milthorpe is in big trouble.
The penultimate-round candidates are very likely to be David Farley, Michelle Milthorpe and a Coalition partner. I’d expect that to be the National’ s Brad Robertson. In the political climate of 2026, a Liberal triumph in Farrer over their Coalition partner would feel more smash-and-grab and less dominium.
A considerable split three ways at this point is a reasonable assumption. The distribution of third-place preferences will deliver Farrer its member. Could a PHON voter preference a Teal independent over the Nationals, and could a Milthorpe voter preference One Nation, abetting the first lower-house victory for Hansonite nationalism over the Nationals? The answer is obvious. A third place for Farley or Milthorpe points to one outcome: the election of Brad Robertson.
A third-placed National presents something more complex. How many Nationals voters agree with the common labelling of Pauline Hanson and her movement as an odiously racist one? I’d be surprised if it’s a majority. The Teal label on Milthorpe is too potent to usurp a caution towards Farley and his party anyhow. And Coalition how-to-vote cards suggest a congruency, or at least expediency with this, as shown by the painful inability at a recent candidate’s forum of the Liberal candidate to provide a please explain regarding their preference of One Nation above Michelle Milthorpe. So in this third-placed Nationals hypothetical, enter David Farley: candidate for Farrer and member of PHON.
A two-candidate preferred vote may obscure the above dynamics, so the battle to escape the cut at the final round is crucial. But do not be surprised by a margin closer to 60-40 than 49-51.
A final word on who wins? I’d say David Farley, though not with confidence.
To internalise this analysis may precipitate disappointment, anxiety, frustration, or worst of all, despair. Fear not. Despite common streaks of grievance and populism, all candidates have demonstrated interest in, and vision for the future of our country. Reading this, those with a healthy cynicism may suggest the author has had the wool pulled over their eyes. Well, that may be. But whatever your opinion of their politics, please make no mistake: the voters of Farrer have the best interests of this country in mind. No matter the outcome, the result of 9 May will reflect a good-faith exercise of democratic privilege.
Jordi Nugent
Jordi Nugent is a policy analyst based in Albury and Canberra. Jordi had indicated an interest in running in the May 9 Farrer by-election but withdrew prior to nomination.