Democrats have opened their largest generic-ballot lead in one major tracking poll, while Trump’s approval, immigration ratings and healthcare politics are all moving against him.
With just days to the mid-terms, polling seems very encouraging for Democrats and very discouraging for Donald Trump.
According to G. Elliott Morris’ Strength in Numbers analysis, “two weeks before Election Day the Democrats have their largest lead on the generic congressional ballot in the 17 waves of this survey since May 2025”.
Among registered voters, 52 per cent say they would vote for the Democratic candidate for the House in their district and 41 per cent for the Republican candidate.
Morris says that among likely voters Democrats lead 54 per cent to 42 per cent – a margin of 12 points.
As for Trump, his job approval is 34 per cent approve and 62 per cent disapprove.
On his signature policy – immigration – his net approval has fallen to minus 16 per cent, a new low; border security minus 6 per cent; and deportations minus 18 per cent.
Fifty-eight per cent say their vote for the congressional mid-terms will mostly be a vote for Congress to act as a check on the president. Although 25 per cent say they want one that helps him pass his agenda.
Forty per cent say their vote for Congress will mostly be a statement against Trump.
Fifty-one per cent think there are grounds for Congress to impeach Trump versus 39 per cent who don’t. Fifty per cent would support the next House doing so.
KFF, an independent source for health policy, research and polling policy, has also released data showing that two-thirds of US adults favour Medicare for all – once a sacrilegious policy commitment in the US.
Paul Krugman in his regular column said: “So if there is a blue wave 13 days from now, it won’t just be the result of inflation and Trump’s vainglorious wars. It will also in part be the result of a quiet but massive healthcare disaster.”
KFF also found that a quarter of voters were ‘very worried’ about being able to afford the cost of health care and gas (petrol).
Meanwhile Paul Krugman has called it as it is – saying “Trump and his allies hate America and what it stands for”.
He calls Trump America’s traitor-in-chief, highlighting New York Times‘ David Sanger reporting on the extent to which Donald Trump is going all out to support Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
Drawing on reporting by Sanger, Krugman said Trump’s support for Putin is unique in US history and unlike support in other wars (such as Vietnam and Afghanistan).
Krugman said: “What makes Trump’s support for Putin even more remarkable is that Russia has, by many accounts, been actively aiding Iran against America in the war Trump started.”
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, has confirmed the active Russian support of Iran.
Krugman asks: “What would Republicans be saying if a Democratic president was supporting a foreign dictator even as the dictator was helping another nation to kill American troops? They would be crying ‘treason’. But this is apparently ‘fine’ with Trump.”
Many have tried to explain, or understand, Trump’s sycophantic approach to Putin and Xi. Does he wish he had their power? Have they got kompromat on him?
More probably, he fits the old Cold War description of a ‘useful idiot’.
Noel Turnbull has had a 50-year-plus career in public relations, politics, journalism and academia. He blogs at http://noelturnbull.com/blog/