While there is much hysteria from Peter Dutton and the Murdoch press associated with the 12 asylum seekers who recently arrived by boat (it’s a catastrophe apparently), there was less excitement about a new post-pandemic monthly record for primary asylum applications set in October at 2,322. That is now approaching the monthly record of over 2,700 asylum applications set when Peter Dutton was Minister. It seems asylum seekers arriving by boat are much more exciting than those who arrive by plane. (more…)
Abul Rizvi
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Have primary asylum applications peaked?
Primary level asylum applications fell marginally in September 2023 to 2,005 from a post-pandemic peak of 2,164 in August 2023. With the Government having announced a $160 million package to get the asylum system back under some control, can we now expect primary level asylum applications to have peaked? (more…)
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Net migration of 500,000 guarantees an ugly immigration election
The October 2023 arrivals and departures data, to be published next week, is highly likely to confirm that net migration for the 12 months to September 2023 will be around 500,000. That is both unprecedented and unplanned. It will lock in an ugly immigration focussed 2025 Federal Election as net migration will fall only slowly unless there is a dramatic weakening of the labour market. (more…)
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Record asylum caseload at Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT)
With announcement of a strategy to address Australia’s burgeoning asylum backlogs, it is worth looking at the asylum caseload at the AAT. Addressing the backlog at the appeals stage is often critical to getting the asylum system working, as it should to help genuine refugees while deterring the unmeritorious. (more…)
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Albanese government addresses coalition-era asylum seekers surge
After around eight years of policy paralysis and the biggest labour trafficking scam abusing the asylum system in our history, a scam that was largely neglected by Home Affairs Minister Dutton and his Secretary Mike Pezzullo, the Albanese Government has announced a $160 million package to “restore integrity to Australia’s refugee protection system”. (more…)
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Pezzullo departure should end the Home Affairs experiment
Creation of the Department of Home Affairs was a disaster for Australia’s immigration policy and administration. The impending departure of its architect, Secretary Mike Pezzullo, enables the Albanese Government to bring that experiment to an end. (more…)
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What the forthcoming migration strategy won’t address
The Government has foreshadowed that it will soon release its new migration strategy. Most of what has been leaked to date is sensible fine tuning of employer sponsored visas which will have little impact on net migration levels. But I fear the migration strategy will be largely silent on the big issue of net migration levels and how these are to be managed. (more…)
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Asylum seekers from Pacific Island Nations
In August 2023, there was another sharp increase in asylum applications from Pacific Island nationals (including Timor-Leste) to over 390. That is more asylum applications in August than from Chinese nationals (215) and Indian nationals (214) despite there being far more Chinese and Indian temporary entrants in Australia. (more…)
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Will number of temporary entrants in Australia continue to rise?
At end July 2023, there was an all-time record 2.554 million temporary entrants in Australia. The crucial policy question is whether that will be a peak or whether the number of temporary entrants in Australia will keep rising? If the latter, what will that mean for the number of temporary entrants in ‘immigration limbo’ – unable to secure permanent residence and unwilling to depart? (more…)
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How I decided to vote in the upcoming Voice referendum
With the date of the Voice referendum now having been set for 14 October, all households will have received a pamphlet outlining the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ case. Australians should understand that these pamphlets have not been officially fact checked. An attempt at fact checking the two cases by The Guardian is worth reading but I found that insufficient. (more…)
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Treasury’s net migration forecasts and the ‘big Australia’ furore?
In May this year, Treasury created a furore when it announced net migration in 2022-23 would be 400,000 – a level Australia has never experienced. (more…)
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Donald Trump Junior vs Novak Djokovic: A tale of two visas
While both Donald Trump Junior and Novak Djokovic were granted visas to enter Australia, the stark difference in how the two cases were managed highlight the difference in approaches of the Albanese and Morrison Governments to controversial visitors. (more…)
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Asylum seekers – Labor’s Achillies heel
While the boom in unsuccessful on-shore (ie non-boat) asylum applications started in 2015 when Peter Dutton was Home Affairs Minister, as time goes by it will be Dutton and the Murdoch press that will try to make it Labor’s Achillies heel. (more…)
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Can the Pacific Engagement Visa deliver positive outcomes?
Earlier this year, I wrote on the potential risks of the new Pacific Engagement Visa (PEV) that will provide a lottery-based pathway to permanent residence for nationals of Pacific Islands and Timor Leste. (more…)
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Have we turned a corner on growth in asylum applications?
Since international borders re-opened, asylum applications at the primary stage steadily grew from a low of around 618 in February 2022 to 1,786 in March 2023. While this was well below the peak in 2017-18 of around 2,500 per month, it would have been worrying the Albanese Government given the entry of the Coalition and Murdoch press into the public debate on asylum numbers. (more…)
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On borrowed time: Pezzullo proves he does not understand immigration
In his opening statement to the recent Senate Estimates hearing, Department of Home Affairs (DHA) Secretary Mike Pezzullo again proved he does not understand immigration policy or administration. (more…)
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Are we on track for net migration of 400,000 in 2022-23?
In the May 2023 Budget, Treasury caused a ‘big Australia’ furore by increasing its net migration forecast for 2022-23 from the 235,000 it published in the October 2022 Budget to 400,000. (more…)
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What should we make of the 2023-24 Migration Program planning levels?
The Government has announced the 2023-24 migration program will be set at 190,000 places – in headline terms a 5,000 place reduction on the 2022-23 migration program. (more…)
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Is Treasury driving the ‘Big Australia’ debate?
As the two major parties continue to debate which of them is pursing a policy of ‘big Australia’, Treasury has quietly forced both of them to accept its preferred long-term net migration target of 235,000 per annum – net migration, that is the difference between long-term arrivals and departures, is the key driver of Australia’s population. (more…)
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Will Labor restore immigration compliance activity?
One of the many appalling consequences of establishing the Department of Home Affairs (DHA), and transfer of immigration compliance functions to Australian Border Force (ABF), was an extraordinary cut back in immigration compliance activity. (more…)
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Why provide a faster pathway to Australian Citizenship for NZ Citizens?
Anthony Albanese has in essence reversed the Howard Government’s 2001 changes to rules around NZ citizens living in Australia and their access to Australian citizenship. (more…)
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What to look for in a Migration Strategy
Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil will shortly (possibly on 27 April) release a new migration strategy. This follows a review of the migration system led by former Secretary of PM&C Martin Parkinson and a review of visa integrity by former Police Commissioner Christine Nixon. (more…)
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Why was there a blow out in net migration?
This front-page story in The Australian on the blow out in net migration has created a frenzy of finger pointing, most of it ill-informed. (more…)
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Asylum cases in Australia for first time exceed 100,000
In February 2023, the number of asylum cases in Australia for the first time exceeded 100,000. (more…)
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Independent occupational shortage body for employer sponsored visas would not work
This editorial in the Sydney Morning Herald suggests an independent body should determine which occupations are in shortage for employer sponsored visas rather than using labour market testing. That would be a mistake. (more…)
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How will we know the migration system has been fixed?
The Minister for Home Affairs, Clare O’Neil, has declared Australia’s migration system is “broken. It is unstrategic. It is complex, expensive and slow. It is not delivering for business, for migrants, or for our population”. (more…)
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Overseas student policy: too important to get wrong
Overseas students are a key source of export income and a tool of Australia’s soft diplomacy. Whether for good or bad, they have also become a major funding source for university research. (more…)
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Legacy boat arrivals: Is a decade of policy paralysis about to be addressed?
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus says the Government will shortly announce a ‘humane resolution’ to the situation of 31,000 legacy boat arrivals who have been living in Australia for over a decade. (more…)
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Are allegations of bogus asylum claims valid?
Hannah Dickinson, an asylum lawyer from the Asylum Seeker Rights Centre, is reported in The Canberra Times to “have rubbished suggestions people are seizing on huge backlogs of asylum applications to lodge bogus claims for protection”. (more…)
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Interpreting Treasury’s latest population statement (Part 1)
Treasury’s December 2022 Population Statement has received more media attention than any of its previous statements. This is predominantly due to Treasurer Jim Chalmers promoting the statement extensively in contrast to his predecessor who largely treated these statements as business as usual. (more…)