John Menadue

  • Parliament of Australia. Russia in the Region.

     Current Affairs.  

    Beyond the attention assigned to the arrival of Russian naval vesselsin the Coral Sea coincident with the G20 meeting in Brisbane in November last year, there has been little public scrutiny of Russia’s recent activities in the Asia-Pacific, and particularly in Southeast Asia.

    Russian engagement with Southeast Asia is certainly not a new phenomenon, with Presidents Putin and Medvedev clearly pursuing Asia-oriented foreign policies since the late 1990s. Recent efforts to expand relations with China have been teamed with attempts to expand links with Southeast Asia and promote investment in Russia’s Far East and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Over the last year or so Russian engagement with Southeast Asia has picked up markedly—in terms of overall economic cooperation, but notably in terms of strategic arrangements, nuclear energy discussions, and weapons sales.

    Strategic Arrangements

    Russian Prime Minister Medvedev visited both Vietnam and Thailand over 6-8 April. Vietnam is key to Russian strategies in Southeast Asia. Now involved in a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’, the two countries are economically tied across diverse fields including energy, finance and trade. The Vietnamese have recently agreed on an FTA with the EEU while, during his visit to Thailand, Medvedev also urged an FTA between Thailand and the EEU.

    The importance of Cam Ranh Bay for Russian aspirations in the region needs no explication. To apparent US chagrin, Russia is now being allowed to operate tankers from the airbase there to refuel Russian bombers operating in the West Pacific. Last year, Russia and Vietnam also signed an agreement to simplify procedures for visits by Russian ships to Cam Ranh for servicing, repairs and crew rest. Cam Ranh Bay is now the base for three submarines (being equipped with cruise missiles) bought by Vietnam from Russia, with two more expected by early in 2016.

    Thailand is a new agenda for the Russians and this nascent attention is a response to the advent of the new military administration of General Prayut Chan-ocha and Thailand’s movement away from traditional allies. Increased defence cooperation has been proposed, and a Russian battle groupvisited the Thai naval base at Sattahip in March this year. During the Medvedev visit, discussions centred on trade growth, defence cooperation and weapon sales, while several deals in areas including investment, energy and tourism were signed.

    Russian ships also visited Myanmar in 2013, while a Myanmar military delegation travelled to Russia. The range of Russian visits in 2013 and 2014 highlights the various areas of cooperation. A jointRussia-Myanmar Military Technical Cooperation Joint Commission has been created, and some 150 Myanmar students and officers are currently studying at Russian military schools.

    Nuclear energy

    After a visit to Myanmar in March 2015, Nikolay Spassky, the deputy director of the Russian atomic energy agency Rosatom, claimed that Myanmar had agreed to cooperate with Russia in nuclear matters. The Myanmar Minister for Information U Ye Htut confirmed only that Myanmar was seeking to ‘use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes’.  Russia and Thailand also signed an MOU on the peaceful use of nuclear energy in September 2014.

    Late 2014 saw the Indonesian National Nuclear Energy Agency advising that it was working with Rosatom in order to develop a nuclear power plant in the country.  It was announced in April 2015 that a Russian-Indonesian consortium had won a tender to design a multi-functional research reactor in Indonesia.

    Golubev Aleksey Viktorovich, chairman of Rosatom, visited Vietnam (Ho Chih Minh City and Khanh Hoa) in October 2014, promoting Russia’s capacity to assist with nuclear energy production. Vietnam has had plans—now somewhat delayed—to establish two Russian reactors totalling 2000 MWe at Phuoc Dinh in southern Ninh Thuan province by 2020. To service these facilities, several hundred Vietnamese students have been trained or are now studying nuclear energy subjects in Rosatom’sclosed cities.

    Weapons sales

    Russia is promoting its military products across Southeast Asia and has been doing so for some time. Powerful efforts are now being put into selling Sukhoi Su-35 jet fighters to Indonesia to modernise its air force, with Russia promising to include technology transfers in the deal. Other weapon sales being discussed include electric submarines, amphibious armoured vehicles and helicopters.

    Russia is also anxious to sell passenger aircraft in the region with Russia’s Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Yuri Slyusar, who accompanied the Medvedev mission, seeking opportunities to sell Sukhoi Superjet 100 airplanes to Vietnamese carriers.

    During the Medvedev visit, Russian Trade Minister Denis Manturov suggested that Russia could sell military aircraft and other defence equipment to Thailand to be offset by much increased Russian purchases of Thai rubber. After his return to Russia, Manturov revealed that deals on rail services, military aircraft, and the sale of three Sukhoi Superjet transport planes were also in train, while Thai military sources suggested that battle tanks might also be purchased. Thai Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon has been spruiking the expansion of arms purchases from Russia.

    Premier Medvedev noted during his visit to Vietnam that ‘cooperating with Vietnam also means extending Russia’s reach to the 10 ASEAN economies’. In this expanded endeavour, Russia will have to compete with a spectrum of other ardent suitors, including the US, China, Japan, India and Australia.

    This Australian Parliamentary Library Blog was published on 8 May 2015.

  • Stephen Morey. How 37% of the vote in the UK resulted in 51% of the seats.

    Current Affairs. UK election

    On Thursday, May 7 2015, the Conservative Party won the national election in the United Kingdom – despite the fact that nearly two-thirds of ballots were cast for other candidates. With only 36.9% of the vote – some 3% more than opinion polls predicted – the Conservative Party won a 50.9% absolute majority of seats, 331 out of 650, in the House of Commons.

    The 61.1% of voters who supported other candidates will thus be represented by a minority in the Commons. There have been public protests at an outcome that some feel was not a democratic expression of voters’ will.

    Labor made bigger vote gains, but lost seats

    Here are a few facts about the election results that may surprise readers:

    • The Conservative Party increased its vote by 0.8%, but increased its number of seats by 28 seats.
    • The Labour Party increased its vote by a greater percentage than the Conservatives did, 1.5%, but its number of seats decreased by 24.
    • Most voters cast their votes for defeated candidates, so most are “represented” by an MP they did not support.
    • Some parties are over-represented in the House of Commons relative to their support among voters. So the governing Conservatives, with 36.9% support, have 50.9% of the seats, and the Scottish Nationalists, with 4.7% support, have 8.6% of the seats.
    • Other parties are grossly under-represented, most notably the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) with just one seat, yet 12.6% support.
    • The percentage swing to UKIP was the biggest for any party in the UK for at least a generation, but the 3,881,129 people who voted for them – the third-biggest vote after the Conservative and Labour parties – are almost all unrepresented in the House of Commons now.
    • Both the Labour and UKIP leaders resigned following their parties’ disappointing number of seats won, even though the votes for their parties significantly increased.

    ‘First past the post’ distorts multi-party contests

    Why is this so? The problem with UK elections, highlighted previously in The Conversation, is that single-member electoral districts, combined with the lack of preferential voting, means that election results usually strongly distort the voters’ wishes.

    Here’s how it happens.

    Consider the county of Cornwall. With six electoral constituencies, the overall vote was as follows:

    43.1% Conservative

    22.4% Liberal Democrat

    13.8% UKIP

    12.3% Labour

    5.8% Green

    2.5% Others

    Although 57% of voters in Cornwall voted for parties other than the Conservatives, the Conservatives won every seat. This is because, under the first-past-the-post system, each winner needs to be just a nose in front of each of the other candidates, even if most of the voters didn’t vote for him or her. In fact, only one Conservative candidate exceeded 50% support in Cornwall.

    The full details of what happened are given in the table below:

    Breakdown of voting in six seats of Cornwall

    Author provided
    Click to enlarge

    The only voters whose ballots count for the election of an MP are those who support the candidate who gets the biggest share. This biggest share is usually well under 50%, because there are five or sometimes six parties getting significant support in the UK. There is no preference voting, so if – for example – you vote for a Greens candidate, as 3.8% of voters across the UK did, your vote is effectively discarded (in all but one seat) because at least one other candidate gets more votes.

    The Conservatives were able to win a clear majority of seats because their candidates got ahead of others in more than half of the 650 seats, even though they received several million votes short of a majority of votes. Across the south-east and west of England the same picture we see in Cornwall was repeated in many places – with overall votes of less than 50% the Conservatives won all, or almost all, the seats.

    But in the rest of the UK the story is different. In the north-east of England, for example, around Durham and Newcastle, out of 28 seats, Labour won 25 and the Conservatives only 3. But, again, Labour’s vote was well under a majority, being just 45.1% of the vote.

    What happened in Scotland? Well, the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) are celebrating a huge win, but actually a majority of voters, albeit a very slim majority, voted for other candidates. Final figures show that the Scottish Nationalists won 49.97% of the vote, but 94.9% of the 59 seats in Scotland (56 seats).

    Some have said this result in Scotland presages a vote for independence in any future referendum, but the SNP did not win a majority of votes in Scotland last week, nor a majority in the 2014 referendum. A win in any further referendum doesn’t seem likely soon.

    So this is why many people in the UK are upset by the election result. Most voters didn’t vote for the outcome they got, and most voters are not represented in the House of Commons – which is the only elected House – by the candidate they voted for.

    Is this distortion really the best that democracy can offer? I would say a definite no.

     

    Stephen Morey is Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Linguistics at Latrobe University. This article first appeared in The Conversation on 11 May 2015.

  • Stuart Harris. What Australia’s Foreign Policy Should Look Like

    Fairness, Opportunity and Security
    Policy series edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue. 

    The focus in Australia’s foreign policy has shifted back and forth between the global and the regional, and between multilateralism and bilateralism in economic and political relationships, due only in part to party political differences. While some policies, such as immigration, refugees and to a degree defence, are widely debated in Australia, many are not. Moreover, foreign policies are often not just linked to domestic interests but become part of domestic electoral politics – whether as photo ops with foreign leaders, muscularly assertive security stances or support for influential domestic pressure groups. This often leads to opportunistic political decisions lacking long-term vision and analysis.

    We concentrate here on two broad and interrelated challenges to our present foreign policy: first, the choice between the global approach and the regional approach and second, avoiding a choice between the political and economic relationships with the US and China. These two challenges embrace much of what is in practice a wide and complex set of influences.

    Among those complexities, the international environment for Australia’s foreign policy is changing with globalization and greater porosity of borders. Inter-state conflict has greatly diminished but intra-state conflict has risen, with consequences for international refugee flows. Population movements more generally will grow and, like political refugees, will target Australia among other well-developed countries. Emerging issues, such as climate change, stressed global commons – oceans, biodiversity, cyberspace and the atmosphere – as well as traditional economic, food and energy issues will shape international relations. Moreover, foreign policy objectives – national security, wealth and prosperity, and a geopolitically stable environment – have become more interrelated. This is even more so if we desire to project a moral dimension through aid and human rights efforts.

    Looking at the first of our two challenges, given our multicultural society, a global conception of our foreign policy is inevitable. Australia arguably supports the international system of international law and global rules. Yet despite Australia’s eagerness to participate in international developments, its political support for global institutions has in practice been equivocal. Scepticism about support for the United Nations is often expressed by political leaders, notably in response to criticism of Australia’s indigenous affairs and refugee policies. Australia worked effectively within the UN framework in the East Timor crisis and during its Security Council membership. Its participation in UN and G20 efforts to develop climate change responses, however, has been grudging. Support for the US in the first Iraq war was within UN auspices; that for the second Iraq war was not. While US belief in its exceptionalism means that it is not bound by its own rules, for smaller countries including Australia international rules are crucially important.

    Australia’s substantial contribution in developing regional cooperation processes and institutions started in the 1970s, with largely bipartisan domestic acceptance in the 1980s and early 1990s. The Coalition government in the mid-1990s switched the emphasis back to Britain and the US, and this was reinforced particularly after al Qaeda’s attack on the US in 2001.

    Asian regional dynamics are changing. Population growth and development in the region is rapid; the importance of countries such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam in particular will grow for Australia. This means there will be a need for a more active foreign policy toward the region. Solutions to many of Australia’s problems, not limited to people smugglers and terrorism, will increasingly need cooperation from regional neighbours.

    Asian developments also have significance for our defence policy, requiring greater emphasis on a regional response. Shifts in the geographic focus of Australia’s defence policy in the past have been between either the defence of Australia and its immediate neighbourhood, or forward defence as with our Vietnam involvement. Recently, more emphasis has again been given to alliance support.

    In terms of the second challenge, the Australia-US relationship has undergone various transformations. In early post war years, it reflected acceptance of a US international leadership within a range of global trade, finance and arms control institutions, international rules and cooperation. Then, as part of the Western alliance during the Cold War and fear of nuclear war, US bases were and remain as Australia’s contribution to early warning and arms control objectives. Although the Western alliance is now more amorphous, Australia has become closer to the US in recent decades. That we have tended to follow US strategies in the Middle East that failed to reflect the complexities of tribalism, religious divisions or sectarian wars – as in Afghanistan and Iraq – should hold lessons for the future. At the same time, the US has become more unilateral in its actions under Presidents Bush and Obama in particular, and is inclined to define what is acceptable or not for Australia.

    The US link has increasingly shaped Australia’s defence, security and foreign policies. More importantly, we have followed the US in seeing solutions to international problems largely in military terms. Sometimes this is sensible as in East Timor and Solomon Islands. Sometimes it is not. Australia’s global approach outside the UN has had mixed results. Our operations in the Middle East – Afghanistan and Iraq in particular – have raised two issues: was the emphasis central to our vital interests; and were we successful? The answer to the first is doubtful; to the second, the failure of those efforts is not in doubt, despite the skills of the Australians involved; the continuing costs, including to domestic security, are substantial.

    It is hard to separate the Australia-US relationship from that of the Australia–China relationship. The US is a Pacific power, but it is an outsider in Asia. Australia, however, is linked to the region from within. China is the largest trading partner of virtually all Asian countries including Australia. Australia’s future relations with the region, in Northeast Asia and with ASEAN in particular, will depend upon relations with China as well as with the US. We should not continue to subordinate foreign policy to security policy; our influence in the region will depend not just upon our military capability but also upon our economic strength and our diplomacy.

    While Australia has enhanced its US relationship in security terms, its economic relationship with China remains largely in a separate policy box with Australia keen to enhance economic ties with China. That policy separation will be more difficult to sustain in the future, with the US increasingly seeing economic developments from a strategic viewpoint, as the ‘pivot’, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) suggest. Yet China will continue to have a critical influence on Australia’s economy, GDP and employment; despite attempts by politicians of both parties to politicize China’s limited investment in Australia, foreign investment including from China will be needed in the future to support our economic growth.

    Given the importance of China to Australia’s economic fortunes, we need to focus more on that relationship, develop greater understanding of its many dimensions, and establish depth comparable to that we have with the US relationship. We also need to decide for ourselves issues affecting China rather than seek guidance from the US, whose interests are often different to ours.

    US global leadership post-WWII contributed substantially to global and regional stability and remains essential, but that leadership is now ambiguous. It needs to come to terms with the new global and regional circumstances, primarily but not limited to the rise of China, and its own constrained relative capabilities. China undoubtedly wants to move from under the strictures of US primacy and potentially will do so in the long term. It is a long way from being able to do so at present. With a recent hardening of attitudes, the US and its military want to maintain that primacy and treat as adversarial China’s attempts to move to greater equality and reduced vulnerability to US dominance. Australia needs to avoid involvement in such a contest and must help reduce their mutual mistrust, developing an accommodative approach in its diplomacy with the US and China.

    For Australia, the US relationship also has a broader economic impact. After a long protectionist history, Australia became a strong supporter of an open, non-discriminatory trading system, supported multilateralism and a rules-based international economic system, under the GATT and then WTO, to its considerable advantage; it reverted, in the 1990s, however, to becoming a preferential bilateral trading nation. Although helping some groups of traders, overall such preferential agreements have provided limited benefit and incurred considerable economic costs, as the preferential US-Australia ‘Free Trade’ Agreement illustrated. Apparently under US pressure to create a precedent, Australia conceded some sovereignty to overseas investors in the economic policy field, through the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) instrument. Its recently concluded Korean agreement permits legal recourse (overriding Australian legal jurisdictions) if Australian policy changes are judged to affect foreign investors’ expected success. It is apparently proposed that this should be part of the preferential TPP currently being negotiated. Safeguards will presumably be sought but with considerable doubts about their likely effectiveness. The TPP is already dividing the region contrary to Australia’s interests, since not just China, but Indonesia and India in particular, will find it difficult to meet the admission conditions. There are times, as with the TPP, when we should be willing to walk away from bad deals. Rather than surrendering sovereignty in the TPP, we would gain more by putting our efforts behind region-wide efforts such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

    So what should our foreign policy look like? A successful foreign policy needs a long-term strategic vision – over decades, long enough to understand that there will be major, and not just marginal, differences to the world as we know it. That vision needs to be based on a clear direction and a careful analysis of all relevant factors and their implications. Our policy orientation should be multilateral and multidimensional, using all our foreign policy tools and recognizing that military methods are unlikely to resolve many problems we might expect in the future.

    Moreover, Australia should not automatically follow the US, but should support actively existing international institutions and their rules and rule-making processes, and contribute constructively to further development of international rules. Areas where this will be necessary are in the climate change field and perhaps international refugees. Although Australia is less well placed to lead internationally than in the past, it can still influence developments if it bases its approach on its own independent thinking and interests. Given the changes likely over the long-term in Asia, however, our efforts should be directed primarily to the region.

    In the security field, the objectives of our existing policies are unclear, as are just what constitute the aims of our military procurement and defence policy more generally, illustrated most recently by the confused submarine issue. Given our diminishing defence spending capabilities, priorities will be needed among different interests and objectives, concentrating our efforts rather than trying to foresee all potential areas in which our military could be involved. Traditional security threats directed at Australia are unlikely in the short and medium-term, but given the potential changes in the region, self-reliance and area denial would seem to have priority rather than other options including alliance support.

    This would have implications for our current considerable enmeshment with the US military. We need to avoid having to choose between the US and China, especially in the, admittedly currently low, likelihood of actual military conflict. While China has not shown real evidence of expansionist objectives, Taiwan is a qualified exception. A potential cause for conflict could arise over Taiwan in the future, in which case pressure will increase on Australia to support the US militarily. Yet opinion polls continue to show little public support for our participation and we should look to discourage any action on our part that encourages US confrontation with China. As Mr. Abbott said in 2012, the US should not take Australia entirely for granted. Inevitably, military conflict between the US and China would have massive consequences, including for Australia if involved. Democratic processes would require that no Australian political leader commit Australia to military conflict involving China without substantial public support and a full parliamentary debate. Without that, history would be unforgiving.

    Stuart Harris was Secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs 1987-88. He is currently an Emeritus Professor and Visiting Fellow at the Coral Bell School of Asia and Pacific Affairs at the ANU.

  • Ian Marsh. Part 2. Democratic Renewal: policy-making practice.

    Fairness, Opportunity, Security.
    Policy series edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue.

    In Part 1, I pointed out that the Westminster style two-party system is in trouble.

    Part 2. Implications for Policy Making Practice.

    At least four implications would seem to follow from the above analysis.

    The first concerns the need to create systemic capacities to address single issues. As Bernard Crick observed many years ago, the present forms and processes of parliament under the Westminster system are tantamount to a continuing election campaign. This suits majoritarian or winner-takes-all government. This mise-en-scene was designed for an era in which the major parties championed different ideologies and different medium-term agendas. It assumed that these parties enjoyed support from more or less half the community. It also assumed that their approach to particular domestic issues as they arose could be derived from their distinctive overarching programmes.

    Neither of these conditions now holds. There is no party platform or canonical document from which to infer attitudes to gay marriage, euthanasia, the financial crisis, live cattle exports, refugees or Gonski: to nominate just a few recent matters. Each of these issues is associated with distinctive alignments, distinctive agendas, distinctive coalitions and distinctive narratives. Thus there is no longer any natural nor enduring majority on many if not most of the issues that are on the current political agenda.

    Furthermore, the present system has almost no capacity to create a political conversation around single issues that is at least partially separate from the struggle for office between the major parties. It lacks any capacity for what might be termed a ‘contemplative’ phase in the unfolding of contested policy issues.

    Second (really a corollary of the preceding point), coalition-building needs to be made routine within the structure of the policy making system. As a large literature attests, where the community is fragmented and pluralised, a coalition symbolises wide support. Coalitions add important public cues to the political equation – cues that, in the majoritarian era, were largely delivered by major party brands.

    Third, to the extent possible, bi(multi)partisanship opportunities need to be explored. As noted above, on many issues there is now substantial overlap between one or other of the parties. Yet you would never know from the present political conversation. A critical moment in the public policy process occurs at the point of time at which an issue first enters the political agenda. For recent examples, think of McClure, Gonski, Higher Education funding, the debate over the deficit. If the agenda entry phase in the policy process could be made more transparent, the opportunity to explore the scope for at least partial cross-party alliances would be greatly extended.

    In a strategic phase, the political conversation might focus on: Why is this issue significant? What establishes its claim to a place in the national conversation? What are some of the options for dealing with it? If the scope for agreement around such matters could be made at least partially transparent, the public conversation might thereafter better focus on real areas of contention. This would need to occur before the executive makes more immediate policy choices.

    And finally, opportunities for ad hoc public engagement need to be considerably extended. Digital media provide a variety of opportunities for ad hoc groups of citizens to come together around particular issues and to advance policy proposals. There are already examples of this occurring beyond the formal system. But the latter has no or very limited capacities to connect to this activity.

    Recall the way citizens proposed a motion at a local branch and then followed its advance to regional and later national party conferences. This suggests how such processes now need to be orchestrated around single issues. Engagement needs to be serial and reciprocal, not sporadic or one-off. If groups of citizens propose something and it is rejected, the reasons need to be stated. More importantly, the proponents need the chance to return to their cause by augmenting their argument and by meeting a higher support hurdle. How these matters might be operationalised needs much more thought. But the principle that engagement should be serial and reciprocal is fundamental.

    In sum, in a different era the major party organisations provided much of the tissue that connected the formal system to its publics. They still have important roles. But they can no longer deliver the necessary linkages. So how can connections be rebuilt?

    System Adaptation.

    There are many proposals for system development. Deliberative democrats propose much wider use of citizen juries and similar choice mechanism. Others see a redefined role for major parties, with requirements for community engagement and policy activism expanded (e.g. Latham, Reith, Faulkner). Voting reform is another possibility although there has hitherto been no mobilisation around this issue, as for example occurred in New Zealand. Social media is just emerging – but it has no connection to the formal system. Indeed to be effective all these initiatives need to be anchored in a formal structure within the representational system. Access and engagement, which is broadened and deepened and sited at the epicentre of the representational system, is fundamental.

    It is hard to see any alternative to a much expanded and deepened role for the parliamentary committee system. Furthermore, Australia’s political system is almost purpose-built for such an outcome. The Senate was modelled on its US counterpart. In fact, the procedures that would be associated with a democratic transformation are evident in our own historic experience. Between 1901 and 1909, the electorate returned three parties – the Free Traders, Protectionists and Labor.

    Governing required at least two of these parties to reach an accommodation with each other on particular measures. Deakin, the leading political architect of the period, led minority governments. To create sufficient parliamentary support to enact contested measures, he needed to initiate a parliamentary (and hence public conversation) at the strategic end of the parliamentary issue cycle, but before the government’s own approach was determined.

    To achieve this outcome, he turned to the tried and tested vehicle, committees of the legislature. Indeed the Australian constitution provided him with an ideal structure. The Senate had been conceived as an independent House on the American model. In its initial years most members acted in this spirit.

    More recently, the (late) Liberal Senator, David Hamer, recommended converting the Senate to a Committee House. Ministers would cease to be drawn from this Chamber. Committee chairs would enjoy extended standing (as is occurring now in the UK). Senate committees could then become important agenda entry points for new and emerging issues. The adversarial culture, which is now often breached in committee enquiries, could be equally qualified in broader Senate proceedings.

    With an especial focus on emerging and strategic issues, committees could be agents of the legislature rather than the executive. They could recommend action – and the legislature would debate their recommendations. Ideally this would be free of the whips. But even with whipped or partially whipped votes, majority, cross-party support in the Senate would provide important guidance for the executive. A more diverse expression of views in the legislature prior to the executive determining a course of action would give the executive more flexibility in response. Following this debate, it would be up to the government to decide what to do. But such a change in the policy determining sequence would also represent a major change in the structure of political power.

    Conclusion

    The present adversarial system was born in 1909. It was based on two powerful party organisations that each appealed to roughly half of the Australian community. These days are long gone. The challenge in the twenty-first century is to develop a political system more aligned to Australia’s pluralised society.

    Thus, while most of the contributions to this series of policy discussion papers focus on the nature and content of future policy choices, it is argued here that actually achieving future policy reform may well depend equally on reforms to our political system and decision making processes. Furthermore, it might be noted that this is not entirely a new situation. In the 1970s and early 1980s, the outstanding economic problem of the day was ‘stagflation’, and a significant factor in the election of the Hawke Government in 1983 was its promise to seek a new approach to dealing with this problem built around a search for consensus, based on equality of sacrifice. Indeed it is arguable that at the time of the election the incoming Labor Government was more strongly identified in the public mind with its promise of “consensus” than with the actual content of its policies. Whatever the case, however, it is indisputable that that Government was able to achieve a great deal of policy reform that set Australia up to meet the challenge of globalisation.

    Now we are facing similar challenges of political and policy failure, and again we need to address the political challenge of the how to reform the decision-making system as well as the policy content. Essentially this political challenge is to change the system so that it is more conducive to producing a majority in favour of sensible reforms.

    But unfortunately to date, the potential of the parliamentary committee system to meet this need is hardly recognised. The procedural and other changes that would be required to enhance its standing and influence in the broader political and policy making system would be tantamount to a democratic transformation. Such institutional developments would align the formal system much more constructively with its publics.

    The incentive structure in parliament which presently favours an adversarial approach is a fundamental issue. Present parliamentary incentives dictate that what one declares black the other must almost invariably proclaim to be white. Until we face up to the mismatch between the formal structure of Australian politics and the society which it nominally serves, dysfunction and gridlock must be expected to continue.

    Can any of the major parties (or any of the minority blocs in the Senate) summon the resolve, the tactical guile and the political imagination that is necessary to transit to a post-majoritarian political order?

    Ian Marsh is a Visiting professor at the UTS Management School. His study Democratic Decline and Democratic Renewal: Political Change in Britain, Australia and New Zealand (with Raymond Miller) was published in 2012 by Cambridge University Press.

     

  • Ian Marsh. Part 1. Democratic Renewal: towards a post-majoritarian policy making structure?

    Fairness, Opportunity and Security
    Policy series edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue.

    Whoever wins the next election, the challenge of dealing with a hung Senate will almost certainly loom large. Perhaps also a hung House of Representatives. Malcolm Turnbull tells us that the appropriate response is a compelling narrative delivered with conviction and resolve by a sufficiently competent leader.

    Is this enough? In this short note I will argue that the problems in present political arrangements are much deeper – they are systemic and structural. The present political and policy system is largely gridlocked. This is the result not of incompetent leaders or deficient narratives, important though both certainly are, but rather of a slow-burn legitimacy crisis that has been many years in gestation.

    Put another way – recent decades have witnessed not one but two seismic shifts: economic globalisation and social pluralisation. The former has been more or less addressed by the major parties. The latter has yet to be assimilated.

    Evidence of social pluralisation and the consequent political gridlock is clear in the recent political record. John Howard passed the GST but at the following election lost the popular vote. Hardly auspicious. After much delay and much cash, he also privatised Telstra. Otherwise, despite ten years of office, tough reforms were conspicuous by their absence. Moreover, he governed with a windfall revenue gain of $283 billion. Despite this, in the ten months prior to defeat, the Howard government u-turned on not one or two but seven measures. These were not minor matters: they were issues at the heart of its programme – Work Choices, climate change, broadband, the Murray-Darling, education funding and so forth.

    Things hardly improved thereafter. The only significant policy matters to survive the Rudd and Gillard governments were based on bipartisanship – plain cigarette packaging, the NDIS and perhaps the Abbott-Morrison-led race to the gutter on refugees. Climate change is on-going.

    Short of bipartisanship, we have no recent examples of successful policy change on a major contested issue. Not one.

    If further confirmation is needed, look no further than the rise and decline of Tony Abbott. As an uncompromising and negative Opposition leader, he was lauded by some for his ruthless pursuit of office, reflected in wholly populist negative campaigns. But in government he faced the reality of office. Nemesis intervened. His slogans created expectations that even his most ardent supporters must now recognise to be contrary to Australia’s national interests. At one level, his fate is testament to combative hubris. At another, to a dysfunctional political incentive structure.

    Underlying political gridlock is a crisis of democratic legitimacy. This will afflict any government. It derives from a disconnect between the formal political and policy making system and its publics. This is a fundamental systemic problem. It has not sprung up overnight or over one government. It has been driven by a variety of structural changes. The following sections explore first, the nature of these structural shifts; second, the requirements for renewing citizen engagement; and third, the systemic changes that might be required to make this wider engagement a reality.

    Three Structural Changes

    Why has democratic legitimacy so eroded? This outcome has been driven by three structural changes: first, the decline of major party organisations; second, a convergence of major party (particularly economic) agendas; and third, and most importantly, a pluralisation and differentiation of citizen identities. Let’s look briefly at each.

    First, the story of major party organisational decline is well known. From a membership of some 8% of the entire adult voting population in 1966, the major parties now attract only some 0.8%. Moreover, whereas only 2% of citizens did not identify with either major party in 1967 the number rose to 28% in the early 2000s and has since hovered around this level. Hence, around 50% of the electorate now have weak or no identification with either major party. Further, about 20% of us vote for minor parties and independents and about another 20% of those eligible do not vote or do not enrol or vote informal. An astonishing number!

    But decline extends well beyond public support. Party organisations used to be important sites engaging activists and aggregating interests. Party branches were widespread and embedded in local communities. Party conferences were important policy making forums. Citizens could advance motions at local and regional party meetings and thus experience political efficacy. These capacities are long gone. Conferences now only occur infrequently and are largely stage managed. A small coterie of parliamentary elites substantially influence manifesto design. Member influence is marginal. The dense tissue that once connected the major parties to their publics has gone.

    A second reason for citizen disaffection arises from convergence of major party agendas. The days when they stood for significantly different directions for national social and/or economic development have long gone. The Hawke-Keating government led a national response to economic globalisation. The illusion of effective government continues to be sustained by memory of this era. But crisis-induced bipartisanship was its essential condition. The end of a shared sense of economic crisis around 1996, or even earlier, was also the end of that era.

    Remember the political incentive structure rewards differentiation. Hence the amount of illusion and make-believe in the political world that we now experience. This is reflected in the short termism, populism and often opportunistic, fabricated or manufactured difference which characterises contemporary politics Moreover, responses are framed with an eye to media impact rather than any underlying values or ideology. Leaders who do not play these games have been given short shrift by their supporters.

    These changes in the formal political system have marched in step with another more fundamental change. This is the transformation of Australian society. The social movements of the 1970s were the proximate cause. Think of the women’s, gay, environment, Indigenous rights, multicultural, animal rights, consumer etc movements, and the more conservative counter-mobilisations that they stimulated. These attitudinal changes have effected a fundamental transformation in the political orientations of Australians. The days when you could think about politics exclusively in binary or class terms are long gone

    This change in Australian political identities is absolutely fundamental. The Australian community is now pluralised and differentiated and, in some contexts, increasingly regionalised. The best image is a kaleidoscope. This reflects not only the diverse values that are held by Australians, but also the challenge in framing persuasive political narratives. The assumption that basic partisan values are widely shared no longer holds. Rather leaders need to craft appeals that can reach out to majority coalitions.

    In sum, the slow-burn crisis of legitimacy, which the three foregoing structural changes have occasioned, is perhaps only now fully apparent.

    In Part 2 I will be examining the implications for policy-making practice.

    Ian Marsh is a Visiting professor at the UTS Management School. His study Democratic Decline and Democratic Renewal: Political Change in Britain, Australia and New Zealand (with Raymond Miller) was published in 2012 by Cambridge University Press.

  • Joel Windle. School choice: parents follow the money.

    If private schools offer little academic value over public schools, why do 35% of Australian parents continue to choose to pay the hefty fees rather than sending their child to the local state school?

    Parents have a high regard for public schools

    School choice is a dilemma for a minority of parents. My research with parents in Melbourne suggests that the preference for public schooling is strong even amongst those who end up sending their children to a private school.

    In fact the most highly regarded form of education, as reported by parents, is the local public primary school. Parents making the decision on where to send their children to secondary school spoke glowingly of the quality of teaching and the cultural and social diversity in public primary schools.

    For some, at the secondary level, it is simply a question of resources and facilities. The super-funding of private schooling by successive federal governments has resulted in visible disparities, and this drives demand.

    Some of the parents I studied were contemplating private schools with twice the level of resources per student, and more than ten times the spending on capital works (including five times more capital funding from government) than the nearest public secondary school. This extra funding is reflected in sporting and music programs and state-of-the-art science facilities.

    The cut-throat competitiveness, archaic trappings and social selectivity of private schools are held against them by many parents, who under a different funding regime would go public. In fact, school sector was not considered to be an important consideration in choosing a school in my study.

    For the 666 parents surveyed, the most important consideration was the quality of the teachers (“very important” for 82.7%), followed by a caring environment (75.4%), a good reputation (72.9%) and well-behaved students (71.4%). This suggests that most parents make decisions about where to send their children to school based on perceptions about the quality of the learning environment.

    It is difficult for parents to gain an appreciation of quality of learning environment, and it is unlikely that many will be swayed by the “value for money” findings of recent research.

    In my study, just one in five parents consulted the MySchool website and little store was placed on the information provided there. Word-of-mouth, and in particular the views of extended family members, counted most.

    The most obvious signs of quality, for parents, are classroom harmony, student eagerness, extra-curricular activities and orderliness. The blazer, with no pedagogical value, has come to symbolise qualities of academic excellence through its association with the most traditional private schools.

    Pre-war prestige

    Such schools are able to exemplify harmonious learning environments through extreme levels of social and academic selection. The “best” schools in the system, judged on examination results, recruit four out of five students from the top socioeconomic status group. Only around 1% come from the bottom group.

    A small group of high-fee private schools and academically selective public schools operate under the kind of conditions prevalent in the pre-war years, prior to the mass expansion of secondary schooling and the retention of students with broader life-experiences, cultural baggage and outlooks.

    It is the very narrowness of these schools’ focus and audience, as well as their historical influence over curriculum and assessment, that makes them appear as beacons of excellence.

    The dominance within the school system of high-fee private schools, virtually all established prior to the Second World War, has produced a halo effect over the private school sector as a whole. Newer and low-fee private schools, with no academic distinction, benefit from this halo and proliferate within an exceptionally favourable funding environment.

    The pressure to assure good examination results has contributed to this drift, particularly in the context of a conservative assessment system that favours the most traditional academic disciplines and forms of evaluation.

    The fact is that in other countries, including the US, where it is more difficult for private schools to receive public funding, the private sector has not expanded beyond a small group of wealthy clients.

    In Britain, private schooling has even declined over the past five years.

    The Australian school system needs to look not to private schools that are only able to function by social exclusion, but to a wider view of learning – in socially and culturally mixed settings.

    If equally resourced, the public sector would certainly draw in a greater proportion of students. However, it seems to be going the other way, with more and more public schools replicating the segregative strategies of private schools by selecting which students can attend.

    Joel Windle is Adjunct Senior Researcher, Monash University. This article was first published in The Conversation on 27 April 2015.

  • Philip Clarke. Pharmacy sector in dire need of reform.

    Among the most significant reforms proposed by recently released Harper Competition Policy Review is the removal of regulatory restrictions that greatly limit competition in the community pharmacy sector. But implementing the recommendation will require politicians who are up for a real challenge.

    Any changes to how the pharmacy sector works involves taking on what has been described as “the most powerful lobby group you’ve never heard of.” The Pharmacy Guild of Australia, which represents the interest of pharmacy owners, is widely perceived as one of the most influential lobby groups in Australia.

    Monoploy rents

    Australian pharmacies are currently protected from competition by two sets of government regulations that form part of what’s known as the Community Pharmacy Agreement. Negotiated every five years between the Federal government and Pharmacy Guild of Australia, the agreement regulates most aspects of the pharmacy sector, from remuneration for supplying government-subsidised drugs to rules about the ownership and location of pharmacies.

    The ownership rules disallow non-pharmacists from owning a pharmacy. So they effectively keep supermarkets and large international pharmacy chains, such as the UK’s Boots, from owning pharmacies in Australia.

    The location rules were introduced as part of the first pharmacy agreement in the early 1990s. It prevents new pharmacies opening within a kilometre and a half of an existing pharmacy.

    These ownership and location restrictions have effectively prevented new entrants into the sector and created what economists call monopoly rents for existing pharmacy owners. Monopoly rents represent the benefits that an industry gains from politically-enforced regulations to restrict competition.

    While reform of the pharmacy sector by removing these restrictions has been championed by commentators from as diverse political backgrounds as Paul Howes and Janet Albrechtson, none of Australia’s politicians from any of the major political parties have so far taken up the cause.

    Report after report

    The competition review recommendation is unequivocal:

    the pharmacy ownership and location rules should be removed in the long-term interests of consumers.

    And it comes after a similar recommendation from the 2014 National Commission of Audit report, which advocated:

    opening up the pharmacy sector to competition, including through the deregulation of ownership and location rules.

    Then there’s the report from the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO), which conducted a performance audit of the administration of the fifth Community Pharmacy Agreement (ending June 2015). The ANAO found so many shortcomings in administration of the agreement by the Department of Health that it was:

    not well positioned to assess whether the Commonwealth is receiving value for money from the agreement overall.

    The ANAO report quantified the remuneration pharmacies have received from government since the early 1990s, when the first Community Pharmacy Agreement was put in place. The figure below shows payments pharmacies receive for dispensing and mark-ups (the amount of money added to the price of drugs, to cover overheads and profit) have tripled from around $750 million in 1991 to over $2 billion by 2013 – even after adjusting for inflation.

    Author provided
    Click to enlarge

    This growth is due to much higher volumes of dispensing due to a combination of population increase, ageing, and expanded prescribing from newer classes of drugs, such statins. But as well as the increase in amounts paid to pharmacies each time a drug is dispensed, government payments are now around 20% higher in real terms than in the early 1990s, due largely to greater pharmacy remuneration from mark-ups.

    And while total remuneration has substantially increased, restrictions on competition mean there are actually fewer pharmacy businesses in Australia than when the first community agreement was negotiated in the early 1990s.

    Who wants to be a millionaire?

    The ANAO report also provides a distribution breakdown of this remuneration across different types of pharmacies. As the graph below shows, around 18% of pharmacies receive more than $1 million in remuneration from dispensing drugs listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. A comparison of the 2012 and 2013 financial years indicates a further 140 pharmacies moved into this top-earning bracket.

    Author provided
    Click to enlarge

    The high profitability of established pharmacies mean business sale prices for inner city and suburban pharmacies can run into the millions. And this high purchase price locks out many pharmacy graduates from ever owning their own business. It also means new entrants are saddled with levels of debt that turn what should be profitable business into marginal ones.

    All this creates what might be termed a cycle of rent-seeking: while the ownership and location rules protect existing owners, the next generation of pharmacy owners will have to buy their businesses at inflated prices. And this makes new owners seek ever more protection from competition to make their business profitable and, in some cases, viable.

    This might also partly explain campaigns such as “Pharmacy Under Threat”, which was run by the Pharmacy Guild of Australia. It was held in the middle of the last Federal election campaign against the relatively modest reforms proposed by the former government to accelerate reductions in price of generic drugs.The Guild claims that a petition distributed through a network of community pharmacies attracted 1.2 million signatures.

    Of course, the lack of competition in the sector comes at a cost to the consumer, both in terms of the choice of where they can shop and in the prices that must be paid. As the ANAO report demonstrates, a packet of aspirin, which may cost as little as $3 in retail marketplace costs up to $12 when it is dispensed under the PBS.

    Still, while the economic arguments for increased competition are strong, the politics of implementing community pharmacy reforms remain another matter. As one of history’s most astute political commentators Niccolò Machiavelli once observed, there is:

    nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than a new system. For the initiator has the enmity of all who would profit by the preservation of the old institution and merely lukewarm defenders in those who gain by the new ones.

    It’s this challenge that faces any reform-minded politician wanting to introduce more competition into Australia’s pharmacy sector.

    Philip Clarke is Professor of Health Economics at University of Melbourne. This article was first published in The Conversation on 7 April 2015.

  • The British Election

    The Observer newspaper in the UK has an interesting background piece on the issues facing people in the UK. It raises many of the questions that concern Australians about the disfunction and the loss of trust in our political institutions. See link to article below.  John Menadue

    http://gu.com/p/48435/sbl

  • LAUNCHING NEXT MONDAY. 11 May 2015. Policy Series

    Fairness, Opportunity and Security
    A Policy Series to fill the policy vacuum.
    Edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue
    .

    On May 11 in this blog- Pearls and Irritations– we will begin a series of articles on important policy issues. There will be over forty articles on sixteen policy areas from over thirty contributors. The series will run for four to five weeks.

    Each of the policy articles will be about 2000 words. They will be realistic, given our political and financial constraints.

    Ken Henry will be introducing the series.  

    In the week commencing 11 May we will post articles on

    Democratic Renewal (John Menadue and Ian Marsh)
    The role of government (Michael Keating, Ian McAuley and John Menadue)
    Foreign Policy (Stephen Fitzgerald, Cavan Hogue, Richard Butler, Stuart Harris and John McCarthy)

    In the week commencing 18 May we will post articles on

    Fixing the budget (Michael Keating)
    Taxation Reform (Michael Keating)
    Federalism (Michael Keating and John Menadue)
    Job Creation (Michael Keating)
    Productivity (Michael Keating)
    Transport and Infrastructure (Michael Keating)
    Welfare priorities (Andrew Podger and Peter Whiteford)

    Then will follow

    Health (John Menadue, Jim McGinty {workforce})
    Development of our human capital in the fields of education, science, innovation, research and development (Glenn Withers, Chris Bonnor {schools}, Glenn Withers {Universities})
    Population/migration/refugees (John Menadue, Peter Hughes, Arja Keski-Nummi)
    Retirement incomes (Michael Keating, Andrew Podger)
    Indigenous affairs (Fred Chaney, Michael Gracey)
    Communications and the Arts (Kim Williams {Arts}, Terry Flew {media regulation in internet world}, Julianne Shultz {cultural identity}, Rob Nicholls {NBN})
    Environment and climate change (Ross Garnaut, Peter Cosier, Brendan Mackay)
    Inequality (Peter Whiteford, Michael Keating, Ian McAuley)
    Security, both military and soft power (Michael Wesley)
    Internal security and freedom (Spencer Zifcak {Human Rights Act/Charter})

    Media enquiries. Please contact johnmenadue@staging-johnmenadue.kinsta.cloud.

     

     

  • Joan Staples. The Value of NGOs

    Australian civil society is again facing attacks from government and conservative think tanks seeking to silence and weaken community voices.   The Labor years of 2007-2013 saw a break from the attempted silencing of the Howard decade, but there is now a new push, that aims to detract from the legitimacy of NGOs and to deny the valuable role their advocacy plays in our democracy. The detail of the new push has been documented recently. It is not a coincidence that at the same time there are new younger voices in an energised environment movement. Many new groups of younger activists are fighting for their future by challenging coal and gas corporations as climate change looms.

    Government actions that are concerning and distracting civil society at present include:

    • Almost 600 environmental groups that hold tax-deductibility status in Australia are being scrutinised by a House of Representatives Inquiry. Government MPs have apparently identified up to 150 groups they wish to strike off the list. Other community groups having the same tax deductibility have not been included. There have been suggestions that those most directly challenging the fossil fuel industry are being targeted by this Inquiry.
    • The federal government White Paper on tax called, Re:Think, has a chapter on the NGO sector. It poses questions for discussion that ignore the advocacy role of developing good policy from community input. Instead, it posits NGOs as competing with the for-profit sector and asks if they have a ‘competitive advantage’.
    • Various state governments have proposed, or are proposing, legislation that would restrict the ability of groups to use public forms of non-violent protest.

    These attacks have been documented a number of times and in fact have been written about extensively. However, it is worth pausing and setting out the importance of this public advocacy to our society.

    The value of NGOs to our public sphere is multi-faceted.

    • NGOs respond to policy and they develop alternative proposals. This input is vital to good policy-making by both government and business.  Community people on the ground can see and predict the effect of policies in a practical and effective way, making improved outcomes possible for all.
    • NGOs are uniquely placed to support policy that looks to long term goals or that affects the future.  In contrast, governments react to the short electoral cycle, asking ‘how will it affect our chance of re-election?’, and businesses have a legal responsibility to ask ‘how will it affect our bottom line’?, but it is a special quality of the NGO sector that it has the flexibility to include the long-term in its policy interests and in its desired outcomes. Responding to the crisis of climate change is the most obvious example where a response relevant to the future is competing with party electoral aims and the business bottom line of fossil fuel companies.
    • Another most important role is to provide a balance to the views of powerful, organised, economic interests.  There is a large imbalance between the power of vested interests and that of the community.  On the occasions when government and business work together, the power imbalance is even greater, and NGOs are vital.
    • NGOs have an accountability function. They inform the community on the behaviour of governments and businesses and call them to account. NGOs can claim legitimacy for this role if their roots are in the community and they are informed by the practical impact of policy on themselves or their members. When this is the case, NGOs are uniquely placed to respond to (a) the impact of government and business policies, (b) the impact of lack of policy, (c) failure to implement promises, (d) the unintended consequences of policy and (e) the existence of unethical or corrupt behaviour.
    • NGOs can show the amount of public support or opposition there is for any policy. It is a creative challenge for NGOs to find new ways to demonstrate this. Rallies, public meetings, letterwriting, petitions etc. are traditional means and the internet has thrown up many new methods.
    • NGOs are better than individuals trying to act on issues alone, because by pooling financial and intellectual resources they improve the quality of their contribution to public debate.  ‘Two heads are better than one’ and ‘many hands make light work’.
    • NGOs can improve equity in our society by providing a ‘voice’ for marginalised and disadvantaged individuals and groups.
    • Regional and country NGOs are important for providing information to make policy specifically relevant to different geographical areas.  The same is true for special interest groups, such as the disabled, women, etc. Policy affecting any regional or special interest group is improved with their input, making it better policy for all.
    • Unlike the public service or government or large businesses, the flexibility of the NGO sector means it can respond quickly to new political situations.  New organisations frequently spring up in response to need or policy proposals. NGO flexibility can be seen as part of the variety, dynamism and vitality of the community from which NGOs come. The flexibility can also reflect different political and cultural ways of talking about the same issue and can tap into different parts of society.

    Conclusion

    It is exactly 20 years since John Howard first spoke of NGOs as part of the economic market, rather than as part of our democratic structure and our public sphere. The Howard years were a confusing period for NGOs. Practical actions of feeding the homeless or planting trees were commended in the name of smaller government, but advocacy on behalf of the homeless or the environment were discouraged by a number of means. Now neoliberal warriors in the Abbott government are opening up new fronts.

    The Australian community has heard two decades of economic language measuring the worth of NGOs as economic entities. This has resulted in a devaluing of NGO contributions and the devaluing of a healthy contest of ideas. It is time to reassert the positives of an engagement with the community.

  • Anne-Marie Boxall. Mental health challenges in rural and remote Australia

    Mental health challenges in rural and remote Australia are widespread and serious. Although the prevalence of mental illness is about the same across the country – about one in five people report having had a mental health problem in the last 12 months – a higher proportion of people in rural and remote areas pay the ultimate price of mental illness and related concerns; suicide rates in rural and remote Australia are 66 per cent higher than they are in major cities.

    There are many positive aspects to rural and remote living: people in rural areas, for example, report higher levels of civic participation, social cohesion and social capital. However, there are also many particular challenges associated with rural life. Some people have a sense of pessimism about future prospects; others experience financial uncertainty and pressure, socio-economic disadvantage, or struggle living with chronic conditions. Such challenges may well prejudice the mental health and wellbeing of people in rural areas.

    Also, people in rural Australia often have trouble getting to see a mental health professional when they need to. Medicare data bears testimony to this. They show that Medicare expenditure per person on mental health services in the bush is only 60 per cent of what it is in the city. This is likely to be because there are far fewer GPs, psychiatrists and psychologists per person practising in rural and remote Australia than in the cities.

    Some rural people appear to be suffering more than others. Farmers, for example, are twice as likely to die by suicide than the general employed public. The rate of suicide among young men living outside major cities is twice as high as it is in major cities. And the suicide rate among young Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people is five times higher than that for young non-Indigenous Australians.

    In response to these startling statistics, the National Rural Health Alliance has developed three modest proposals that will help make it a little easier for people to access the care they need. The proposals are as follows.

    • Introduce Medicare rebates for telehealth services delivered by psychologists and others through existing programs, such as Access to Allied Psychological Services (ATAPS), and the Better Access to Psychiatrists, Psychologists and General Practitioners.
    • Continue mental health first aid training for Rural Financial Counsellors. Funding for the program is due to cease on June 30, 2015.
    • In consultation with Indigenous experts, speed up the availability of culturally-appropriate online mental health resources specifically for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, perhaps using Aboriginal Health Workers with special training in e-mental health.

    The Alliance has taken these proposals to Parliamentarians, suggesting that they should be considered for funding in the upcoming Budget. We will continue to advocate for these proposals in the coming months because they are cost-effective and practical measures that would make a real difference to the health and wellbeing of people living in rural and remote Australia.

    The Alliance has recently published a Fact Sheet highlighting some of the issues relating to mental health in rural Australia. We have also published a Rural Mental Health Help Sheet with valuable information on where to find advice and support. Both are available at http://ruralhealth.org.au/factsheets/thumbs.

     

    Anne-Marie Boxall, National Rural Health Alliance.

     

  • Wiryono Sastrohandoyo. Getting the Australia-Indonesia relationship back on track.

    John Menadue asked me to discuss how best to get Australian-Indonesian relations back on track, although I agree  that this is a politically sensitive issue and weighing it up may not be the prudent thing to do while there is still a lot of anger in the heart of many Australians and Indonesians.

    The anger on the part of the Australians is easy to understand. Two of your citizens have been executed by firing squad, after having been found guilty of a capital crime by a duly constituted court and after all the legal processes to save their lives had been exhausted. But during the ten years between their sentencing and their execution they had reformed, become good persons who were always in the service of their fellow human beings, notably through the drug abuse rehabilitation program that they designed and carried out while in prison.

    The anger on the part of many Indonesians is different: it is born of a deep-seated grievance against Western nations with which Indonesia interacted in the past. This grievance just happened to be focused on Australia because of the awkward way the Australian government tried to save the lives of the two death convicts. They felt that they were being dictated upon and were not getting the respect they deserved. The anger seethed when the Australian PM very imprudently brought up the matter of Australian aid to Indonesia. This was regarded as an attempt to humiliate Indonesia into sparing the lives of the two death convicts. This was all they could think of whenever Australia is mentioned. Nobody remembered how Australia figured in the country’s struggle to keep its independence in the late 1940s.

    It might seem to be the dictate of common sense to let the storm blow over before saying anything about Australian-Indonesian relations, to be silent about it for a sufficient period of time to allow the negative emotions to dissipate. And yet there might be a deeper wisdom in addressing the problem right away.

    In this regard it is always a good thing to be able to see things from the other person’s point of view. When I was undergoing training to become a diplomat, we were told to cultivate the habit of two-handedness. To be able to say: on the one hand, this is how I see the issue, and on the other hand, you may have a point that I must consider.

    On one hand, Australia needs Indonesia as an economic partner; on the other hand, Indonesia equally needs Australia as an economic partner and as a collaborator in its regional architecture building. That is why I am optimistic that on both sides the wounds of recent controversy will heal. And my optimism is strengthened when I think of what PM Abbott recently said: “This is a dark moment in the relationship, but I am sure the relationship will be restored.”

    Likewise, a few days ago, Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi said she hoped the relationship would normalize because, she said, “Indonesia needs Australia and Australia, I think, also needs Indonesia.”

    It would help, of course, if the dialogue between the two countries became more constructive. During the years that I served in the foreign ministry and dealing with Australia, I learned that indeed, in this age of information, countries scrutinized each other. This is a fact of international life.

    But the developed countries of the West are the ones that are doing most of the scrutinizing, as the developing countries are more often distracted by their own domestic problems. Observation breeds criticism, and when officials express their views on issues through the mass media, they tend to address the gallery and to play to the grandstand. This generates a lot of heat without shedding light on the issues to be addressed.

    And sometimes the media are part of the problem. By providing information and commentary on issues, the media help shape public perception. Politicians and public officials have to deal with these perceptions that are eventually stripped of their nuances and reduced to their most simplistic forms. The traditional media have always tended to be sensational, but the most sensational of them all are the social media. These days, so much misperception, so much prejudice and so much hatred are being perpetrated by the social media.

    The negative impact of irresponsible media reportage and commentary is further complicated by the cultural traits of peoples. It is my impression that we Indonesians are a more emotional people compared to Australians and other Westerners who are more cerebral in their approach to issues. We tend to deal with others on a heart-to-heart basis, while Australians do it head-to-head. So in the case of a controversy such as the one on the death convicts, many statements coming from Australia, which were meant to be simply sensible and practical, were received in Indonesia as hard-hearted and cold-blooded.

    It would greatly help the relationship if we spent more time learning about each other instead of debating who is right and who is wrong. And there should also be a more robust manifestation of mutual respect. While we are so unlike each other in terms of culture and traditions, the fact remains that we are geographically next-door neighbors. We are stuck with each other.

    One of the most prudent things we can do is to invest in cross-cultural communication—in a way that shows respect for one another’s views. We can disagree while still showing respect for the person we disagree with. We must avoid the blame-game and refrain from speculation. Above all, we must avoid inflammatory language. We must shun megaphone diplomacy.

    We must do more to promote our social-cultural relations. Our cooperation in the field of education must continue .

    At the same time we must make our economic partnership work for our peoples. They must feel and enjoy the benefits of that partnership.

    We must work together to form a robust regional architecture through the Asean-led processes, especially the East Asia Summit.

    These are the ballasts of our bilateral relations. If we keep on enlarging and strengthening them, if we keep on learning about each other and showing respect for each other, our bilateral relations will grow from strength to strength in all the years ahead. It is the two countries’ shared responsibility.

    Wiryono Sastrohandoyo was Indonesian Ambassador to Australia from 1996 to 1999. 

  • Walter Hamilton. Constitution Day in Japan

    Last Sunday was Constitution Day in Japan. The national holiday memorializes the historic fact that, in 1947, for the first time Japanese embraced the principle that sovereignty resides with the people––not an emperor or a shogun, but the people.

    This is no ordinary year for thinking about Japan’s post-war Constitution, given that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to fundamentally change it to provide his conservative government scope for military adventures. The basic law’s existing renunciation of the use of force to settle disputes he considers outmoded, because a neighbour like China is not similarly constrained.

    So, then, pretty important to find out what people were saying and doing on Constitution Day, one would have thought. But which story led the TV news on the national broadcaster, NHK, that night? The new royal baby in Britain. What ran second? The heavyweight boxing contest in America. Third? Nepal. After which NHK faintly remembered to call home.

    NHK (whose president has said publically that he would never want the broadcaster to get out of step with government policy) effectively turned its back on the main news story of the day. (Imagine if the ABC had failed to lead with the Anzac Day commemorations?)

    Anyone aware of the recent trend towards government intimidation of journalists (foreign and domestic) in Japan and the suppression of information and distortion of news values by those beholden to Abe, on seeing this line-up, would have immediately guessed that the pro-Constitution rallies had been big.

    And they were.

    This is how the left-leaning Asahi Shimbun reported the story:

    An unprecedented sense of crisis as well as feelings of optimism engulfed rallies and other events around Japan on May 3, the 68th anniversary of the enforcement of the postwar Constitution.

    While some gatherings backed the ruling parties’ plan to propose the first-ever amendment to the U.S.-initiated Constitution, defenders came out in droves, saying the government must not “destroy” the pacifist Constitution.

    At Rinko Park in Yokohama’s Minato-mirai district, about 30,000 people rallied in favor of preserving the Constitution, a turnout that surprised organizers of the event.

    “It reflects a growing concern among citizens over the drive to change the Constitution,” a member of the event’s organizing committee said.

    Last year, they sponsored two separate rallies in the Tokyo metropolitan area, but they attracted a total of just 5,000 people.

    In his speech at the Yokohama event on Constitution Day, Nobel Prize-winning writer Kenzaburo Oe voiced his concerns over Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on April 29, in which he pledged to strengthen cooperation between Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. military.

    “Japan is willing to become a hearty partner of the U.S.-led war around the world,” said Oe, 80. “It would be the last time for an old man like me to speak in front of this many people, but I am determined to continue working to defend the Constitution.”

    Meanwhile in Tokyo, about 900 people attended a symposium in support of constitutional revision. The “Citizens Group for a Glorious Constitution” has been lobbying prefectural and municipal assemblies across the country to adopt statements calling for amendments to the Constitution.

    It is really sad that we have been forced to preserve the Constitution that does not reflect our aesthetics,” declared journalist Yoshiko Sakurai, a leader of the group. “The United States has changed its global strategy to avoid conflicts that do not directly involve it, and given China’s militarily advances, we must change our attitudes first.”

    Aesthetics?

    Predictably Japan’s conservative press and NHK last week hailed Prime Minister’s Abe’s Congressional address, citing favourable reviews from the Obama administration and US media. “Repentance” for that troublesome-old-war-back-then was his price of entry into the Washington “smoking room”.

    What most commentators overlooked, in their rush to compliment Abe, was the clever way he presented himself as a product of the American way of doing things: the boy who went to California as an exchange student and returned to Japan with an American “cheekiness” (nonsense, this grandson of a former prime minister was always cheeky) and a taste for baloney (I mean the Italian sausage). Through a plethora of folksy historical references, he made Japanese democracy and American democracy seem one and the same thing––which certainly they are not.

    It was straight out of The West Wing; I could almost hear Toby and Sam summoning up the platitudes.

    “History is harsh. What is done cannot be undone.” This is what Abe’s “repentance” boiled down to. It reminded me of the scene in The West Wing when “Jed” Bartlet informs his Republican opponent about the killing of a Secret Service agent in an armed robbery. The dull-witted politician shakes his head: “Crime. Boy, I don’t know.”

    The issue, Mr. Abe, is not that we should try to undo history, an obvious impossibility. What we must be willing to do, however, is candidly interrogate history and embrace its lessons. So, how about starting by calling off your hired heavies who have turned NHK into a news wimp, and let your own electors learn how others really think about your plans for constitutional change.

    Walter Hamilton reported from Japan for eleven years for the ABC.

     

     

  • Richard Woolcott. Australia and Indonesia.

    For Australia no bilateral relationship will be more important, complex and challenging in the future than that with Indonesia.

    The relationship is, however, going through a difficult period at present, especially due to the reaction in Australia to the execution of the two Australian citizens for drug smuggling.  The necessary improvement will take time and require sensitive management by both Governments.  Efforts to improve knowledge and reduce suspicion in the wider communities in each country of the other will be necessary.

    Globally, Indonesia is also of growing importance to major powers such as the United States, China, Japan, Russia, and India. This is because Indonesia ,with a population of some 250 million, is now the fourth most populous nation in the world.  It is the largest Muslim country by population.  Some 81% of its people are Muslim.

    Despite a high degree of continuing poverty, it is a country with 94% literacy, an expanding middle class and a rate of economic growth of between 6 and 7% per annum.  Indonesia is a member of the G20 and the World Bank predicts it will have a larger economy than Australia within the next two or three years.  Australia needs to acknowledge the reality that its relationship with Indonesia is asymmetrical.  Indonesia is more important to us than Australia is to it.

    Prime Minister Abbott has stated that Australia should pursue a more “Jakarta less Geneva” policy.  I consider that in the context of the great changes underway in the Asia Pacific region Australia does need a fundamental change in our national psyche.  We need to focus more on South East Asia, North Asia and the South West Pacific than on our well established links with the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe.  We need a continuous and sustained approach rather than a spasmodic one more focussed on the countries of Asia.

    The rise of Asia is closely linked to the unprecedented transfer of wealth from the West to the East, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, which seems likely to continue into the foreseeable future.  This seismic shift is driven by the spectacular growth of China, in particular, but also by the rise of India and the established economic strengths of Japan and South Korea in addition to the growing potential of Indonesia itself and Vietnam.  This constitutes a historic global turning point to which Australia must respond, if we are not to find ourselves left behind.

    It follows that the Australian Government will need to craft a more appropriate and updated balance in our relations with the United States and China, as the emerging superpower.  This will be necessary to reinforce the Government’s rhetoric about our role in the Asia Pacific region with action and adequate funding.

    In what is widely referred to as the Asian Century, Australia should maintain an unambiguous policy to the Australian public, as well as to the United States and Chinese Governments, that while we are in a long standing alliance relationship with the United States and while we have some different values and a different political system from China, we welcome the rise of China and oppose policies directed at the “containment” of China.

    A failure to co-operate with a rising China could, if mismanaged, lead to instability and frustrate progress towards Asia Pacific regional co-operation.  All countries in the region need continued peace and stability if economic growth is to be maintained and to deal with competition within the region for resources, including food and water.

    Turning back to the Australia – Indonesia relationship, when the reaction to the executions is behind us, we need to resume regular and improved consultations on a wide range of policy issues.  Australia should consult Indonesia at Head of Government, Ministerial and Senior Official level, on major global and regional issues, especially those involving the current complexities in the Middle East.  On our continuing involvement in Afghanistan and our most recent additional involvement in Iraq we should consult Indonesia especially as it is by population the largest Muslim country in the world.

    We have tended to consult mainly the United States, the United Kingdom and, on some occasions, Canada and New Zealand on issues such as the second invasion of Iraq in 2003.  In 1989 the Hawke Government consulted Indonesia and other South East Asian countries with Muslim majorities, like Malaysia, or substantial minorities like Singapore and The Philippines on our participation “Desert Storm” in Iraq.  Since 1996 we may have notified Indonesia of our major foreign and security policy decisions but I understand that high-level regular consultations have not taken place, as distinct from notification.  If we are serious about our role in our neighbourhood this practice should be reinstated.

    A recent example of our failure to consult Indonesia in advance on policy issues which could affect that country was the hasty decision of the Gillard Government, subsequently rescinded, to ban live cattle exports to Indonesia.  Another was and still is the handling of the refugee / asylum seekers issue in the region, an issue which is much less of a priority for Indonesia than it is for Australia.

    Another decision which was not fully canvassed in advance at a Head of Government level with Indonesia was a decision, announced during President Obama’s visit to Australia in November 2011, to rotate 2,500 US marines through Darwin.  Such a decision should have been announced by our Prime Minister in the Australian Parliament.

    A group from the NSW branch of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, which toured Indonesia after President Obama’s announcement, said that one of the main impressions the group had formed was that Indonesia would like to see Australia follow a more independent foreign policy not based on either compliance with American wishes, or a fear of China.

    Former Prime Minister Rudd put this well when he said that “compliance did not equate to alliance” in respect of the United States;  similarly, “understanding did not equate to agreement” in respect of China’s policies.

    It is clear that Australians and Indonesians need to know much more about each other.  It is regrettable that many Australians still regard Indonesia mainly as a  mysterious and corrupt country in which the rule of law is weak.  According to the Lowy Institute’s polls many Australians still see Indonesia as a potential security threat.  This is largely because of historical fears, its size, its proximity, its assumed political instability and the violation of human rights in West Papua.

    The great majority of Indonesians are largely ignorant about Australia.  Those who do know Australia still tend to see it as part of the “Anglosphere”.  In terms of Indonesian culture many see Australia as uncouth and still harbouring undertones of racism and religious intolerance.  These suspicions go back to the days of the White Australia policy and more recently to public statements of politicians, such as Pauline Hanson, which are considered in Asia to be racist.  The fact that Australia’s Head of State is still the Queen of England also reinforces our association with the “Anglosphere”  and detracts from a more distinctive international and regional Australian identity.

    Many Indonesians I have encountered still express uncertainty about the depth and sincerity of our commitment to our Asian and South West Pacific neighbourhood.  While Indonesia, like Australia, welcomes a constructive and continuing United States involvement in the Asia Pacific region there is some concern in both countries about what the “pivot to Asia” – now referred to as “rebalancing” – really involves.  What is expected of Australia?  How will Indonesia react to this?  I am aware of concerns in Indonesia that the Cocos islands, so close to Indonesia and Malaysia and now part of Western Australia, might be used, including by drones, for security purposes in the South East Asian and Southern China region.

    In the context of global Islam and the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, Indonesia is the most tolerant of all Islamic countries.  Historically it is mainly Sunni but Islam in Indonesia has been influenced and softened by Hinduism and Buddhism.  Indonesia has generally dealt firmly and effectively with Islamic extremists and domestic terrorism.  Despite occasional acts like banning Lady Gaga from performing in Indonesia, it remains a moderate, secular state.  That it is so is of fundamental importance to Australia and other countries in the region.

    The election of Joko Widodo – known generally as Jokowi – formerly a small businessman with limited experience of international affairs and who is not a member of the established political elite, was seen as an important break from Indonesia’s past.  Jokowi was largely seen as a man of the people who would govern for the “orong kacil” (the poor and less influential people ) and who was seen as a challenge to the established elite.  In fact, after eight months in office Jokowi, according to a number of commentators in Jakarta and Australia, has not so far lived up to the hopes expressed after his election.

    In this context it is of interest to note that when President Jokowi ceased to be the Governor of Jakarta and became President of Indonesia, he was succeeded as Governor of Jakarta by his Deputy who is a Christian, ethnic Chinese.

    Time Magazine, in a cover story last October on Jokowi, described him as “A New Hope” which indicated a break from a corrupt political elite dominated past and a fresh beginning.  Initially, in Indonesian polls he enjoyed 75% support.  Recently, however, this has dropped to 60%.  It has been a problem for him that Jokowi  does not lead a political party and secured the Presidency in part through the support of a former President, Megawati Sukarnoputri, the current leader of the PDI – P.

    Megawati has used her position as party leader to play a role in nominating the Cabinet, some members of which were not Jokowi’s choices.  Also, for example, Budi Gunawan was pushed by Megawati for the role of Police Chief.  Initially Jokowi did not withdraw Budu’s nomination although the Corruption Eradicaton Commission (KPK), one of the most respected institutions in Indonesia, had announced he was under investigation. He has since done so.

    Jokowi is aware of the need to streamline investment procedures, including in respect of mineral developments.  He has established co-operative relations with a number of Indonesian business leaders.

    Australia’s relations with Indonesia, as I have noted, are complex and have entered another difficult phase when the Australian Governments’ and Parliaments’ pleas for clemency for Sukurmaran and Chan have failed.  This will reflect a perception that Australia is still essentially a Western country, more influenced by the other Anglosphere countries, especially the United Kingdom, than it is by its neighbour Indonesia.

    Under President Jokowi Indonesia remains a nationalist, sensitive, post-Colonial society which will not buckle under what it sees as intrusive Western pressure.  As I warned both the Government and the Opposition in January – too late as it turned out – public political pressure could be counter productive and would actually reduce the prospects of clemency.

    The pressures, related to widespread domestic opposition to the death penalty, were also seen as inconsistent (the Howard Government had supported the death penalty for Saddam Hussein and the Bali bombers), “gesture” politics related to Australian domestic politics, which put Jokowi, a new and nationalist President, into a position in which he and his supporters considered he could not yield to foreign, including Australian, pressure.  We would be well served if we lectured less and consulted and listened more.

    Jokowi also has difficulties with the Indonesian Parliament (DPR) as up till now he and his supporters do not command a Parliamentary majority.  This is a complicating factor which could change depending on Indonesian domestic policies as Jokowi’s term unfolds.

    To conclude, the importance of our future relations with Indonesia, and in the context of the Asian century, cannot be overstated.  It is essential that each country comes to know more about its neighbouring country.

    As a nation we need to be genuinely and continuously engaged – not just in a rhetorical sense or in going through the motions – with our very large neighbour of increasing regional and global importance.  It is vital that Australia does not allow single issues, such as the problems related to East Timor, or the execution of the two Australians convicted of drug smuggling in Indonesia, to influence excessively a bilateral relationship of paramount scope and importance.   Both countries will share this neighbourhood for the rest of time.

     

    RICHARD WOOLCOTT AC, Founding Director, Asia Society Australia; Former Ambassador to Indonesia (1975-78); Former Ambassador to The U N ( 1982-88); Former Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs & Trade (1988-92); Chairman, Australian Indonesia Institute (1992-1998)

    This article was first published in the Asia Society Australia Newsletter. 

     

     

  • COMING SOON. A policy series to fill the policy vacuum.

     COMING SOON.   11 May 2015

    Fairness, Opportunity, Security.

    A Policy Series to fill the policy vacuum.
    Edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue

    There is growing public disquiet. The government and the opposition keep playing the political and personal game at the expense of informed public discussion of important policy issues.

    As a community we have become concerned about the trustworthiness of our political, business and media institutions. Insiders and vested interests are undermining the public interest. Money is unduly influencing political decisions. There is gridlock on important issues like climate change and taxation. We are not satisfied with ‘small target ‘politics.

    After a near death experience Tony Abbott says he is open to new thinking and ways of governing. Time will tell. Bill Shorten says 2015 will be the year of ideas. Let’s see.

    On May 11 in this blog- Pearls and Irritations– we will begin a series of articles on important policy issues. There will be over forty articles on sixteen policy areas from over thirty contributors. The series will run for four to five weeks.

    Each of the policy articles will be about 2000 words. They will be realistic, given our political and financial constraints.

    Ken Henry will be introducing the series.

    ATF Press plan to publish these policy articles in book form later this year  

    Policy Series.  Areas to be canvassed

    Economic policy
    Fixing the budget 
    (Michael Keating)
    Federalism
    (Michael Keating, John Menadue)
    Productivity
    (Michael Keating)
    Job creating and participation
    (Michael Keating)
    Foreign policy  (Stephen Fitzgerald, Richard Butler, Cavan Hogue, Stuart Harris, John McCarthy)
    Security, both military and soft power  (Michael Wesley)
    Health  (John Menadue, Jennifer Doggett {co-payments}, James McGinty {workforce})

    Development of our human capital in the fields of education, science, innovation, research and development (Glenn Withers, Chris Bonnor {schools}, Glenn Withers {Universities})
    Transport and infrastructure (Michael Keating)
    Population/migration/refugees (John Menadue, Peter Hughes, Arja Keski-Nummi)
    Welfare priorities (Andrew Podger, Peter Whiteford)
    Retirement incomes (Michael Keating, Andrew Podger)
    Indigenous affairs (Fred Chaney , Michael Gracey)
    Communications and the Arts (Kim Williams {Arts}, Terry Flew {media regulation in internet world}, Julianne Shultz {cultural identity}, Rob Nicholls {NBN})
    Environment and climate change (Ross Garnaut, Lesley Hughes, Brendan Mackay)
    Inequality (Peter Whiteford, Michael Keating, Ian McAuley)
    The role of government (Michael Keating, John Menadue, Ian McAuley)
    Democratic renewal – the lack of trust in government and the hollowing out of our  political parties (Ian Marsh, John Menadue, Barry Jones)
    Internal security and freedom (Stephen Zifcak {Human Rights Act/Charter}, Peter Timmins)

     

    Media enquiries. Please contact johnmenadue@staging-johnmenadue.kinsta.cloud.

     

     

  • Gigi Foster and Paul Frijters. This budget … will favour the rent-seekers.

     

    Long before the release of French economist Thomas Piketty’s smash bestseller, it was recognised by social scientists that income inequality in developed countries had been rising for a while.

    Economists’ stock-in-trade explanation for this trend was that people whose skills combined well with modern production technologies had seen bigger income growth than people whose skills didn’t combine well with these modern inventions. In other words: those whose skills complement new technologies are the disproportionate beneficiaries of economic development.

    Raising your income, with complements

    The line of argument here is best illustrated by example. If the income of an illiterate apple picker in the US rose a bit between (say) 1980 and 2010, but the income of a university-educated US worker rose a lot more in that same period, then so-called skill-biased technological change could explain this divergence if excess productivity is generated when one combines the more skilled worker with modern production technologies, like computers or automated warehousing.

    Similar returns are not available to the apple picker, who uses no new technology in his work as time marches on. On the contrary, he must compete with new inventions like an automatic apple-picking machine, rather than designing or tweaking such a machine, as could be done by a high-skilled worker.

    Hence, while the educated worker brings home part of his steeply rising productivity in his paycheck, the pay packet of the apple-picker grows more weakly as his country develops.

    But economists aren’t the only ones pondering why inequality has increased.

    The old boys’ club

    Political science has for years spoken of rent-seeking interest groups whose members actively try to circumvent the democratic process, subverting the intentions of large groups like states or countries in order to get more for themselves and their chums.

    This line of reasoning paints a very different picture of inequality than that arising from skill-biased technological change. Rather than an unfortunate but unavoidable side effect of economic advance, whose fruits can ultimately be made available to all through democracy and redistribution, increased inequality that results from rent-seeking is arguably cancerous. Divisive, subversive, and unfair, it offends and cripples the very society from which it springs.

    The Aussie case

    Which of these is responsible for observed inequality in Australia? We take a first stab at answering this question in our recent paper, published in the Australian Economic Review’s Policy Forum entitled “On the Economics and Politics of Inequality”, curated by Ian McDonald.

    We examine the industries in which the richest Australians work. We argue that if they rode to their riches on the back of skill-biased technological change, then our richest residents should have invented new technologies, or combined their skills with existing production and delivery technologies like computers, specialised medical equipment, or specialised engineering technologies. Moreover, we should expect a good number of our richest residents to have made their fortunes elsewhere and arrived in Australia later in life: their economic contributions should not be country-specific.

    In fact, the vast majority of the richest Australians work in property, mining, and banking/finance. Tellingly, the highest-earning workers in these industries do not invent or use advanced production or distribution technology (as far as we can tell!). People in these highly regulated industries are handsomely rewarded when they can negotiate special favours, such as property rezonings, planning law exemptions, mining concessions, labour law exemptions, or money creation powers.

    Much as we economists might not want to admit it, our findings lend more support to the political science view of inequality than to the economist’s traditional view, at least as regards to inequality within Australia. While preliminary, our findings support the contention that the way to get richest in this country is to know people who are in a position to award special favours that circumvent democratic processes, and then ingratiate yourself to those people.

    Does the budget entrench or counteract inequality in Australia?

    The 2014 budget could almost have been written by the rich. Higher levies on the rich, such as higher marginal income tax rates at the top, are temporary whereas cuts to support for the poor, such as medical co-payments or the halving of unemployment support, are permanent.

    Some changes could have been made but were not, such as superannuation tax concessions that heavily favour the rich and distort incentives. Instead, changes were made that primarily benefit a few very rich owners or administrators. Abolishing the carbon tax, for example, mainly benefits a handful of coal-fired power station owners. University fee deregulation mainly benefits top university administrators.

    How can we improve this situation in the next budget?

    Closing off the superannuation loop-holes is a big change that would reduce inequality. Capping the salaries of top university administrators, rather than using government debt to finance exorbitant payrolls for these bureaucrats, would help a bit. Lifting the import ban for bananas, which currently benefits a few large banana producers at the expense of the rest of the population, would also help.

    Reforming the regulations around property rezoning and planning exemptions would help a lot. Reforming superannuation funds, whose very high running costs go into maintaining a few CEOs and those large buildings you see in the middle of our large cities, would help a lot. Many more such adjustments are conceivable.

    Economists at the Treasury, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Productivity Commission, and elsewhere know perfectly well how to reduce inequality and tackle the political favouritism that fuels increased inequality. The question is almost entirely one of political will. Does the population care enough about inequality for the politicians to deliver? We will see.

    If you care about stamping out the cancer of political favouritism, by all means make your voice heard. But do not be surprised to see more political favouritism in the next budget that will further increase inequality.

    Gigi Foster is Associate professor at UNSW Australia Business School. Paul Frijters is Professor, Economics at the University of Queensland.  This article first appeared in The Conversation on 27 April 2015.

  • Philippe Le Corre. World War II is also not over in Asia.

     

    Historians estimate that 14 million Chinese died at the hands of the Japanese in WWII. The Chinese economy and society was in ruins. Will Australia attend the 70th anniversary of VJ Day in Beijing on September 3 this year. John Menadue.

    All the controversy on the Russian celebration of the end of World War II has obscured the similarly problematic role of such events in Asia. Indeed, at a recent roundtable among think-tankers and government staffers, one participant candidly asked a simple question. “What will governments do when China’s official invitation letter to attend World War II celebrations in Beijing arrives?” Embarrassing silence ensued. On September 3, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) plans to host a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II and, to use the Chinese phrasing, “victory in the World Anti-fascist War and the Chinese people’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression.”

    There is nothing new about the Chinese communist party wanting to demonstrate its military strength in front of foreign leaders. Since the creation of the PRC in 1949, senior representatives of “friendly countries” have been in attendance at celebrations such as the 60th anniversary of the regime in October 2009. That event included a military parade with 10,000 troops and the display of many high-tech weapons held in Tiananmen Square, the precise place in which the pro-democracy movement was crushed in June 1989. This year, Western leaders feel both pressure to attend from the Chinese, and discomfort with an event that is clearly aimed at celebrating the country’s new international assertiveness.

    This discomfort is particularly acute in Asia, where China wants to play a bigger role and where Japan sees China’s rise in a region it used to dominate economically as a threat. The territorial dispute in the East China Sea has particularly been a source of tension between the two Asian powers. China would like to use the 70th anniversary events to show off its military and diplomatic strengths. The September military parade will therefore be a challenge for many non-Asian government leaders invited to attend the celebrations. Only Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose own May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow will not be well-attended by Western leaders due to the Ukraine situation, has confirmed his presence in Beijing. Others are pondering about what to do and who to send to Beijing.

    Most European leaders are pondering whether to go. The situation is somewhat similar to the announcement in March by the United Kingdom that it was to become the first Western nation to join the board of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). With regards to the invitation to attend the September events, the China-friendly U.K. has been avoiding the question, as it faces a general election on May 7 (the new government will have to decide.) France is focused on making the Paris 2015 climate conference a success, and therefore follows its own agenda; and Germany does not want to alienate itself from the United States and Japan by attending alone a somewhat controversial event.

    All Europeans are keen to expand economic and trade relationships with China, but they do not want to damage their relationships with Japan. They should indeed send a representative to Beijing but probably not their most senior leader in order to avoid interfering in an already complex regional situation in Asia. European governments should consult each other on this matter, and give a joint response to China. They should also consult with the United States to avoid another AIIB situation. The United States will wait for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to Washington at the end of April—as well as his annual statement marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in August—to start thinking about who to send. Even more that Europe, it will seek to preserve both China’s and Japan’s pride at the same time. That will be a challenging diplomatic task.

    Philippe Le Corre is Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Centre on the United States and Europe at The Brookings Institution. This article was published on April 16, 2015.

  • James Hogan. An Unspeakable Wrongness

    And so, it has come to pass. With a dreadful inevitability, Indonesian Law has taken its course, and the sentences passed so long ago on Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran have been carried into execution. Some will wonder at our capacity to mourn these men and their fellows when we struggle to find compassion for other, more ‘deserving’ victims.  Others will take an even harder line, noting with approval the completion of a ‘fine evening’s work’, a message sent regardless of the tariff.   Yet if recent months have shown us anything, it is the  growing recognition in our community that Death has had its day, and that the time has come to take a stand for life, whatever the chances of success.

    How else can one explain the extraordinary efforts of Reprieve and the Mercy Campaign, of the Foreign Minister and her shadow, of parliamentarians from the Prime Minister down, of the Christian and Islamic leaders of Sydney? How about the tens of thousands of ordinary Australians who have attended vigils and signed petitions? Or the famous actor, tweeting quietly and with simple courtesy to the President, using whatever influence he could muster to try to make a difference?

    There have been stumbles, well-meaning but ham-fisted interventions from private citizens and holders of the highest office, words almost instantly regretted and far, far better left unsaid. These have been the exception: the rule has been cautious and respectful, allowing every opportunity for reflection and dialogue, cognizant of our own vulnerabilities – understanding, perhaps, that some games can be played only by a Great Power.

    Yet no matter how persuasive the argument, how profound the transformation in the inmate, how careful the observance of protocol, it all still ended in tragedy.

    Tragedy comes in many forms, but here it arises with surety from the act itself – the slow, methodical and deliberate taking of a healthy life, removing all promise, all hope, any skerrick of doubt that might remain about a future. Too often we focus on worthiness in the inmate instead of its absence in a system that can take a life with such calmness and professionalism.  Too often we seem concerned with method, with structure and technicalities: the feigned concern for suffering, the relative merits of one mechanism over another, the comical focus on the inmate’s dignity during his final hours.

    Such dignity as he is able to retain comes only from within, bound up with life and humanity, taken only at the last. Dignity might be stifled by procedure, but dignity isn’t in its gift. More than three quarters of a century have passed since George Orwell wrote of the scene in a Burmese prison yard as his party escorted a Hindu man to the gallows. The prose is clipped, almost official, telling of a moustache beyond proportion, an unexpected visitor, and a bumbling jailer, so inept that he could fail to organise a hanging on time. And then, the condemned man, firmly restrained by his escort, pushes momentarily against their grasp to avoid a puddle of water:

    It is curious, but till that moment I had never realized what it means to
    destroy a healthy, conscious man. When I saw the prisoner step aside to
    avoid the puddle, I saw the mystery, the unspeakable wrongness, of
    cutting a life short when it is in full tide. This man was not dying; he
    was alive just as we were alive. All the organs of his body were working
    – bowels digesting food, skin renewing itself, nails growing, tissues
    forming – all toiling away in solemn foolery. His nails would still be
    growing when he stood on the drop, when he was falling through the air
    with a tenth of a second to live. His eyes saw the yellow gravel and the
    grey walls, and his brain still remembered, foresaw, reasoned – reasoned
    even about puddles. He and we were a party of men walking together,
    seeing, hearing, feeling, understanding the same world; and in two
    minutes, with a sudden snap, one of us would be gone – one mind less, one
    world less. 

    Death, you see, is different. The  issue lies not in the machinery, the crimes of the prisoner, nor even in the repugnant camouflage adopted by the authorities to distance themselves from the act  – the fiction of a blank cartridge, the executioner’s mask, the lethal injection machine that uses a random number generator to choose between two button-pushing executioners  (no, I’m not kidding). The issue lies only in the pointless termination of a life, a life that cannot be held to be of lesser value than our own without that too being diminished, and one day disappearing altogether from view.

    That is why we must continue to speak up, that is why we must petition and appeal when a rational mind says the actions are futile or some say that the inmate doesn’t deserve to be saved. That is why we must celebrate those who have fought so long and hard in what has become a losing battle. Each time we sit back, each time we remain silent, the tide of human dignity ebbs subtly further from the shore, and the value of our lives ebbs with it.

     

    James M. Hogan is a Brisbane academic. These are his own views.  In an earlier life he was heavily involved in anti – death penalty work with Amnesty, and he has written many (unsuccessful) appeals for clemency.

    [Orwell’s famous essay, should you wish to link to it, may be found here:

    http://www.george-orwell.org/A_Hanging/0.html  ]

     

  • Peter Christoff. On these numbers, Australia’s emissions auction won’t get the job done.

    Last Thursday, the Abbott government announced the results of its first reverse auction of emissions-reduction projects. Using A$660 million drawn from the A$2.55 billion Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF), the government has purchased 47.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, as a first step towards reducing greenhouse emissions under its Direct Action plan.

    Federal environment minister Greg Hunt proclaimed the auction to be a “stunning result”, claiming that the ERF alone will get the government to achieve its existing Kyoto target.

    The Australian newspaper’s triumphant front page headline hailed the outcome as a “direct hit on carbon target”, with national affairs editor Sid Maher writing:

    The Abbott government has claimed vindication for its Direct Action policy, saying the first auction in the scheme has put Australia on track to “more than meet” its carbon-reduction target at a “fraction of the cost” of the carbon tax.

    But how effective has this first auction really been, and what might we expect in the future?

    Maths and myths

    Closer scrutiny of the package of contracts is impossible at this stage, and some of the answers won’t be clear until the projects begin to deliver (or not) emissions reductions over time. Even so, there are plenty of grounds for concern.

    Part of the answer comes down to crude arithmetic and some rather dry number-crunching. Once all factors are taken into account, Australia needs to cut its CO2 emissions by 236 million tonnes to meet its official target, agreed under the Kyoto Protocol, of cutting emissions by 5% below 2000 levels by 2020.

    Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, the going rate for carbon emissions will remain at the average of almost A$14 per tonne of CO2 paid in this first reverse auction. If so, the A$1.89 billion remaining in the ERF’s coffers will buy another 135 million tonnes of emissions.

    Assuming all the 47.3 million tonnes bought in the first auction are delivered, and the price per tonne of carbon remains the same, then the total emissions reduction bought by the ERF will be around 182 million tonnes of CO2. This is 54 million tonnes (or about 23%) short of Australia’s overall target.

    Source, Author provided
    Click to enlarge

    However it is likely that this first auction has picked most of the “low-hanging fruit” – emissions-reduction projects that are easy or cheap to implement or already under way. In future, the number of “emissions-reduction-ready projects” may decline, and the cost per tonne of emissions reductions increase. If the average price rises in subsequent auctions – or if Australian energy use and emissions continue to grow – the overall shortfall will increase still further.

    Devil in the detail

    The story doesn’t end there. The auction’s 107 participants have varying deadlines for delivering their projects. Surprisingly, only 1.5% of the contracts (by volume of CO2 to be reduced) are set to end within 3-5 years, within the target deadline of 2020. Meanwhile, 40% of emissions reductions are set to be delivered over seven years, and the remaining 58% over ten years.

    It’s hard to know when many of the contracted projects will produce their cuts. Without access to the detail of specific contracts, it is hard to assess when each contract will “mature”. About half the contracts (again, by volume of CO2) are “forest protection” projects. These can be assumed to deliver results immediately. A further 15% are vegetation regeneration and soil carbon projects, which also are likely to come “online” pretty quickly.

    But some 35% are industrial schemes – projects to capture waste methane from landfills or piggeries – which may take one or two years to become fully operational and start delivering results. If so, this could mean that these projects will contribute more emissions reductions towards the end of their contracts than at the start. In other words, emissions reduction from industrial projects is likely to be lower before 2020 than a simple annualised estimate would allow. (It’s also worth noting that no major emitters in the energy and resource sectors are among the successful first-round bidders.)

    The best we can do here is estimate the annual abatement promised by each project across the lifetime of its contract. This indicates that only 28 million tonnes of emissions – around 60% of the 47.3 million tonnes lauded as the outcome of this first auction – will be have been cut by 2020.

    Unfortunately, our shortfall just increased to 73 million tonnes, or to 30% short of Australia’s overall target.

    Are these really emissions reductions?

    Last, and not least, there is the issue of the “quality” of the emissions savings. Almost half of the projects (by emissions volume) involve “forest protection”. These are rural projects, mainly related to the previous Carbon Farming Initiative (now subsumed into the ERF), which generate carbon credits by paying farmers to stop the destruction of native vegetation for which clearing permits had already been issued (so-called “avoided deforestation”) or to enhance sequestration of carbon in soil and vegetation.

    Most people paying superficial attention to the workings of the ERF would expect public money to be spent on cutting “real emissions”, for instance by moving our industries onto renewable energy sources, rather on paying rent to rural landowners to avoid activities that may release emissions in the future. Useful though these projects are, one wonders whether they should constitute the core and bulk of Australia’s flagship climate policy.

    All up, on the evidence so far, Minister Hunt has greatly overstated the auction’s achievements. If this is to be the main mechanism used during the remaining five and half years before the 2020 emissions target deadline, then – short of economic downturn and a dip in emissions from the energy sector – Australia won’t meet, let alone exceed, even its very weak 5% reduction target.

    The ERF would need well over A$3 billion to buy all the emissions needed to meet Australia’s present target. And that is not to mention the parallel debate about whether Australia needs to adopt tougher targets.

    Moreover, the ERF’s reverse auction approach seems incapable of driving a national transition to renewable energy or encouraging substantial emissions-reducing activities by major industrial emitters. It is certainly unable to meet more ambitious post-2020 targets, of the sort recommended by the Climate Change Authority, which are the minimum that will be required if Australia is to do its fair share in combating global warming in the future.

    Peter Christoff is Associate Professor at University of Melbourne. This article first appeared in The Conversation on 27 April 2015.

  • Mark Triffitt and Travers McLeod. Hidden crisis of liberal democracy.

    A “burning platform” with big, tangible impacts on our everyday lives is often the tipping point for concerted action. We call these crises.

    Think of the G20’s actions in the wake of the global financial crisis or the global response to 9/11. Both events left governments and decision-makers with no choice but to act.

    Then there are the hidden crises. These are usually not a single, explosive event, rather a pattern of events whose impacts are difficult to connect.

    As such it takes time to bring to the surface the underlying cause and have it widely recognised as a crisis. It takes even more time to convince decision-makers to act.

    Climate change is an obvious example of this knowledge-action gap.

    For most of its “life” as a policy issue, climate change was perceived as an intangible – hard to define, connect and quantify. It was even harder to convince the public and policy-makers to respond.

    Seminal developments over the past decade have changed all that. Scientific consensus, volatile weather patterns leading to observable security, economic and environmental impacts, as well as global awareness campaigns, have persuaded new stakeholders, including the US military and Bank of England, to move into the action camp.

    Yet the evolution of climate change as an issue has exposed the least obvious crisis of the 21st century: our system of democratic governance.

    It is on the tip of our tongue every time we speak of the difficulties in resolving climate change – our frustration with the lack of future-focused, coherent action. But we rarely articulate it.

    So it remains largely hidden – and therefore largely off the agenda for action and change.

    In what ways is liberal democracy failing?

    Specifically, the failure to tackle climate change speaks to an overall failure of our liberal democratic system to:

    • deliver competent, future-focused policy that can guide and give context to the pressing need for action on core challenges

    • reconcile expert knowledge and community opinion to deal with the big issues of our age

    • gain and sustain long-term consensus on what is often complex policy action to deal with these issues

    • achieve effective action by devolving power to local communities or projecting solutions across borders through transnational collaboration.

    Climate change is the sharpest manifestation of an entirely new order of policy challenges that confront and confound democracies around the world.

    These include cybersecurity, corporate profit-shifting, deepening inequality, porous borders and the movements of people and money that spill through them.

    Yet the crisis of liberal democracy remains intangible. This is because we prefer to blame the idiosyncrasies of leaders and bad leadership, rather than the system itself and its growing pattern of policy gridlock and dysfunction.

    In the process, we overlook the fact that our delivery mechanism of democracy – liberal democracy – evolved out of a pre-21st century world. It was a world where the speed, scale and complexity of policy were of a dramatically lower order.

    So in a globalised, digitally saturated world no longer bound by speed limits, our hands are tied by political and policy machinery, like parliaments, designed to synchronise with the 20th century’s comparatively languid rhythms of decision-making.

    In a world of hyper-diversity, this “machine” is engineered to churn out responses to complex challenges within one-size-fits-all templates and packaged slogans.

    Moreover, it is largely monopolised by political parties and career politicians. They seek to choreograph the 21st-century policy world with an unimaginative two-step of 20th-century ideologies and allegiances.

    Creative coalitions and values that reflect today’s world are, as a result, largely absent.

    All this should tell us why the consensus-creating and policy-making institutions liberal democracy relies upon for action and legitimacy risk becoming a case study of failure.

    It is also why those who inhabit what is, in effect, an old-fashioned democracy “factory” retreat into the adversarial, the short-term and the sloganistic. These are the blinkers that allow them to shut their eyes to disruption and insist there is no underlying crisis.

    What can be done to overcome this crisis?

    Successfully tackling climate change and other big policy challenges depends on making tangible the intangible crisis of liberal democracy.

    It means understanding that liberal democracy’s governance machinery – and the static, siloed policy responses generated by such democracies – is no longer fit for purpose.

    It means coming up with disruptive solutions – like coalitions of countries, cities and companies to tackle climate change – that re-align this machinery with the new order of scale, complexity and speed that defines our 21st-century world.

    Long-term solutions to fix the crisis in democratic governance in Australia might include:

    • More deliberative systems that directly engage citizens and deepen debate. Such systems would work to capture and grow long-term vision, values and objectives – rather than static perceptions of incremental policy decisions made for tactical reasons.

    • Expert and citizen panels that are genuinely intergenerational and cross-sectoral. Their composition should favour younger generations and ensure the baby boomer generation cedes some control over what it leaves to the next.

    • Granting more decision-making power to institutions independent of the government of the day, but still accountable to parliaments (such as the Parliamentary Budget Office or Infrastructure Australia). This would increase the capacity of policy planning and decision processes to have staying power beyond individual political cycles.

    • Enabling the appointment of some ministers from outside the parliament. This would allow experienced hands – experts at the top of their game – to lead a portfolio while remaining accountable to the parliament.

    • Synchronising state and federal electoral terms (to be a minimum of four years), with state and federal elections to take place at two-year intervals. This would allow the meshing of short, medium and long-term planning, complete with clear milestones.

    Some of these ideas might work. Some might not. But persisting with a system that seems increasingly incapable of managing the most pressing issues of our age is not an option.

    Climate change is symptomatic of, and accelerates, the crisis across our liberal democratic systems. We cannot fix one problem without resolving the other.

    Mark Triffitt is Lecturer, Public Policy at University of Melbourne.
    Travers McLeod is Honorary Fellow in the School of Social and Political Sciences at University of Melbourne.
    This article was first published in The Conversation on 22 April 2015.

     


     

  • Peter Day. Rather Be Dancing With Me Rosie.

    My grandad, he represented Australia; wore a green helmet, too.

    Walked out and faced the music: ducked a lead ball, not a leather one, mind you.

    Not much of a dressing shed in which to relax and prepare;

    A stinking-bloody-trench, sick mates, a smoke, and a ‘God-help-me’ prayer.

    Such a long way from home; just seventeen, no one has a clue.

    The pollies speak of glory and sacrifice; another teenager’s down … no, not Blue.

    No greater love can a man have than to lay down his life for a friend.

    That Jesus fella knew a thing or two; just wish me Good Friday would come to an end.

    What am I here for anyway; King and country? Is it worth this terrible hurt?

    Rather be dancing with me Rosie than going toe-to-toe with a Turk!

    Letters from mum, they arrive; bring tears and a smile.

    Her words are like a prayer in this foreign land; me home for this next little while.

    Come back alive, dear son, I miss you; hope these socks warm-up your limbs.

    Things are much the same here, luv; dad’s keeping busy mowing lawns and puttin’ out bins. 

    He misses you too, son, but can’t bring himself to write.

    Figures time might slow down if you’re on his mind while out of sight.

    God, what I’d do to be mowing lawns and playing cricket in the backyard;

    Smelling Gran’s scones in the kitchen, and making life for me sisters hard.

    I had my future mapped-out: after Uni I’d teach and inspire kids.

    Instead, I’m rolling in mud and blood and death; another teen heading for the skids.

    “A just war, a waste of life, a sin”the experts all have their say;

    Like seagulls squawking ‘round a packet of chips; wish they’d just be quiet and take time to pray.

    Pray for our families, our minds; the crippled hearts that no longer feel.

    Pray for our enemies, too; what happened to them and their loved ones was also a big deal.

    Welcome us home, but not with flags, anthems, chest-beating and the like;

    But with silence and humbled hearts, because we all know what just happened wasn’t right.

    War is failure. I know that. There’s not much else to say;

    Man’s inhumanity to man; may it never again hold sway.

    Peter Day is a Catholic Priest in Canberra.

     

     

  • Walter Hamilton. In the Name of the Emperor

    Emperor Hirohito never made it to Okinawa. He passed away before he could fulfill that stated desire. (He was scheduled to go in 1987, until illness intervened.) Okinawa was the scene of some of the most savage fighting of the Pacific War: 100-200,000 Japanese soldiers and civilians died there in April-June 1945, as well as 14,000 Americans.

    The Okinawan or Ryukyu Islands were annexed by Japan in 1872 during the reign of Hirohito’s grandfather, the Emperor Meiji. Ever since, the islands’ ethnically distinct people have remained stuck at the bottom of Japan’s socio-economic ladder; Okinawans endured disproportionately heavy sacrifices during the war, and continue to do so.

    Once the Americans handed the islands back in 1972 (less the vast tracts of real estate occupied by U.S. military bases), Hirohito had 17 years to make the trip south. His son, Akihito, went as Crown Prince and would visit Okinawa a further nine times after acceding to the Chrysanthemum Throne. But Hirohito––who went to every other prefecture in the nation during his long reign––never made it.

    Were there political forces keeping him away? Could it be that conservative governments in Tokyo, and their patrons in Washington, feared a Hirohito visit would become a rallying point for opponents of the Security Treaty? Most Okinawans oppose the heavy American military presence in their midst, so what would they think of the emperor who effectively put it there?

    Earlier this month Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko made a well-publicised trip to the western Pacific, carrying on where Hirohito almost left off. They went to the island-state of Palau to pay their respects to those who perished in the Battle of Peleliu in September-November 1944 (the distinguished Australian cameraman Damien Parer was among the many thousands killed on that speck of land).

    The trip was a considerable undertaking for the Imperial couple: he is now 81, and she is just a year younger. It also carried potent symbolism: in the dignified and modest way in which the frail Emperor and Empress conducted themselves; in the fact that they ventured to another country––Palau is now independent––to draw attention to the terrible costs of war; and in the emphasis placed, in their remarks, on the sacrifices made by both sides in the conflict. This was no chest-beating exercise; it was a voice of reason, humbly reminding Japanese of the true legacy of their past.

    None of this symbolism was lost on the Japanese public, at a time when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing a revisionist view of history by downplaying or denying some of the worst aspects of the nation’s past militarist adventures. The New York Times editorialized on 20 April:

                   Mr. Abe’s nationalist views and pressure from competing political forces have affected  his judgment on these delicate issues. He has publicly expressed remorse for the war and  said he will honor Japan’s past apologies for its aggression, including the sex slavery. Yet  he has added vague qualifiers to his comments, creating suspicions that he doesn’t take  the apologies seriously and will try to water them down.

    His government has compounded the problem by trying to whitewash that history. This  month, South Korea and China criticized efforts by Japan’s Education Ministry to force  publishers of middle-school textbooks to recast descriptions of historical events —   including the ownership of disputed islands and war crimes — to conform to the  government’s official, less forthright analysis. And last year, the Abe government tried           unsuccessfully to get the United Nations to revise a 1996 human rights report on the  women Japan forced into sex slavery.

    Japan’s Imperial family, many believe, is acting as a bulwark against Abe’s retreat from responsibility and as a restraint on his government’s ambitions for an enhanced military capability and more assertive posture towards China.

    At a news conference in February, Crown Prince Naruhito, the heir to the throne, was asked for his views ahead of the 70th anniversary of the end of World War Two. He replied: “I myself did not experience the war… but I think that it is important today, when memories of the war are fading, to look back humbly on the past and correctly pass on the tragic experiences and history Japan pursued from the generation which experienced the war to those without direct knowledge.”

    The key words are “humbly”, “correctly” and “tragic”. In a country where the sovereign (or, in this case, the sovereign-to-be) is expected to remain strictly apolitical, this was as near as one gets to a public reprimand.

    Prime Minister Abe has a special “panel of experts” preparing to advise him on the public remarks he will deliver on 15 August when the nation commemorates the war anniversary. Next week, in Washington, where he is set to become the first Japanese Prime Minister to address a joint meeting of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, many expect to hear a preview. The New York Times commented that, apart from progress on defence cooperation and trade,

     the success of the visit also depends on whether and how honestly Mr. Abe confronts  Japan’s wartime history, including its decision to wage war, its brutal occupation of China and Korea, its atrocities and its enslavement of thousands of women forced to  work as sex slaves or “comfort women” in wartime brothels.

    Australians, fresh from their commemoration of an earlier conflict, should also be attuned to the Japanese leader’s take on history. As will the Imperial family, which has made it clear it will not allow its prestige to be appropriated for any future acts of belligerency. Should Abe during his U.S. visit resort to “weasel words” about the past, there is an octogenarian monarch waiting in his palace who may be prepared to call him out.

     

    Walter Hamilton reported from Japan for the ABC for eleven years.

  • COMING SOON – Mike Keating and John Menadue (joint editors). POLICY SERIES

    Mike Keating and John Menadue (joint editors)
    Fairness, Opportunity and Security -filling the policy vacuum

    There is a growing public disquiet that both the government and the opposition keep playing the political and personal game at the expense of informed public discussion of important policy issues.

    As a community we have become concerned about the trustworthiness of our political, business and media elite. Insiders and vested interests are undermining the public interest. Money is unduly influencing political decisions. There is gridlock on important issues like climate change and taxation.

    After a near death experience Tony Abbott has said the he is open to new thinking and ways of governing. Time will tell. Bill Shorten has said that 2015 will be the year of ideas. We hope so.

    From early May in this blog we will be posting a series of articles on important policy issues. Mike Keating and I will be joint editors.

     There will be over 40 policy articles .Each of the articles will be about 2000 words.

    They will be   realistic, given our political and financial constraints.

    It is planned that these policy articles will be published in a book by ATF Press in October/November this year  

    Policy areas to be canvassed

    Economic policy
    Fixing the budget
    Taxation
    Federalism

    Productivity
    Job creation and participation
    Foreign policy
    Security, both military and soft power
    Health.
    Development of our human capital in the fields of education, science,  research and development and innovation.
    Transport and infrastructure
    Population/migration/refugees
    Welfare priorities.
    Retirement incomes
    Indigenous affairs
    Communications, the arts, media and culture.
    Environment and climate change
    Inequality
    Role and responsibilities of government
    Democratic renewal – the lack of trust in government and the hollowing out  of our political  parties.
    Internal security and freedom.

     

  • Julianne Schultz. The Great War and Australia’s future.

    The Gallipoli centenary provides a unique opportunity to reflect on the many wartime legacies – human, political, economic, military – that forged independent nations from former colonies and dominions. Over the next fortnight, The Conversation, in partnership with Griffith Review, is publishing a series of essays exploring the enduring legacies of 20th-century wars.


    It seems poignantly appropriate that the web address gallipoli.net.au, which features the logo, “Gallipoli: The Making of a Nation”, is owned by Michael Erdeljac of the Splitters Creek Historical Group. Splitters Creek is now a suburb on the western edge of Albury, better known for its active Landcare group, and as the home to the endangered squirrel glider.

    In the competitive market for Great War memorabilia, Erdeljac deserves to be congratulated. He has owned the URL for 14 years, well before commemoration became a national preoccupation. He is motivated by his own conviction that “we must remember”.

    The history recalled on the site is serviceable; the list of names of those killed at the Gallipoli landing, Lone Pine and Nek battles heartbreaking; the opportunity to “own a piece of history” well-priced: A$1200 for a framed print of a photo from the front. The photo was donated by the late daughter of Corporal Herbert Bensch, one of the many Australians of German heritage who fought for the Australian Imperial Force (AIF) in the Great War.

    It was in a camera belonging to his mate, who was one of the nearly 9,000 Australian soldiers, 3000 New Zealanders, 35,000 Brits, 27,000 French and 86,000 Turks who died on the peninsula a century ago. Years after returning, Bensch processed the photo and it became a family heirloom.

    It is poignant because it was settlements like Splitters Creek in the Riverina that were home to many of the almost 60,000 Australians who died during that war. As has been graphically captured on the screen, and is now easily accessible in the digital records of those who fought, many of the young men who volunteered to travel across hemispheres were country lads woefully ill-prepared for the slaughter they would face.

    Not all, like Bensch, traced their forebears back to England. For many of those who fought it was a chance to be involved in a great adventure, albeit often with tragic consequences.

    Did the Great War really create Australia?

    The notion that this blooding and the other epic battles of the Great War made the nation has become a truism. But it is one that needs to be examined.

    Australia was already a (teenage) nation in 1914. It was a nation crafted from the time, eager to assert its independence (in most things) from the motherland, infected by a racism made (almost) scientific by Darwinism, egalitarian, protectionist, and, in important democratic domains (compulsory voting), marked by a progressive spirit.

    In many ways, Australia was a world leader – forging both a civic and an ethnic idea of nation.

    In Europe, by contrast, at the beginning of the war, as David Reynolds details, there were only three republics – France, Switzerland and Portugal – but five major empires: the Ottoman and British, and those headed by the Romanovs, Habsburgs and Hohenzollerns. Five years later, all but one of these empires had imploded. There were 13 new republics and nine nations that had not even existed before the war.

    In Europe, the 16 million lives lost and 20 million injured literally created nations. The carnage emboldened a democratic, nationalist and in some places revolutionary, spirit. It led to major political changes in Great Britain, the beginning of the end of the old aristocracy, and eventually the devolution of Ireland. In Australia, by contrast, it slowed and divided the progressive movement, tingeing the country with grief.

    Although the trauma and loss was profound in Britain, Australia and New Zealand, there were no battles on home soil in either the motherland or the dominions. In Britain, the outcomes were less concrete. They were more tied, as Reynolds argues, to:

    … abstract ideals such as civilised values and even the eradication of war.

    In Australia, as John Hirst has written:

    Gallipoli freed Australia from the self-doubt about whether it had the mettle to be a proper nation.

    So, in Australia, the experience of war became shorthand for nationhood. In New Zealand, it marked the beginning of a long journey to even fuller independence.

    It is an ancient notion that equates battle and blood with independence and freedom; that there is life in death. The very idea that war “was the truest test of nationhood and that Australia’s official status would not be ratified psychologically until her men had been blooded in war” is, as historian Carolyn Holbrook persuasively argues, evidence of:

    … muscular nationalism [that] was given legitimacy by Social Darwinism.

    The Great War did not make Australia – that had been relatively cerebral activity, notwithstanding the conflict of settlement, which reached its conclusion on January 1, 1901, when the colonies federated into a nation. The nation began as penal colonies, prosecuted battles of settlement, welcomed people from many lands and crafted a constitution. But like many adolescents it was conflicted, as Holbrook argues:

    … the very nation that it sought to distinguish itself from was the nation whose approval it craved.

    The Great War was not even the first foreign war that Australians fought in alongside Britain – that was in South Africa. But as the legend of Breaker Morant has captured, there were important differences in attitude between Australia and Britain that came to the fore in foreign battles.

    Many historians have argued that the lingering feeling of illegitimacy, of having a chip on the shoulder that needed to be avenged, helped fuel the idea that participation in the Great War was a coming of age. This was proof, as Hirst noted, that Australia really had the “mettle to be a nation”.

    Eagerness to participate was not universally shared. This is illustrated most powerfully in the failure of two referenda to introduce conscription. This was another important mark of an independent nation, of a place where people had the right to make their own decisions rather than being the property of the state. So those of Irish heritage expressed anti-British sentiment, those of German descent were regarded suspiciously, and Indigenous Australians joined the fight. It was complicated.

    Afterwards, the tragedy of loss and grief was palpable. Australia’s progressive spirit was divided and lost momentum.

    And then, in little more than a generation, another war began which layered trauma on catastrophe, left the air full of human smoke, changed global geopolitics and renamed the Great War, World War One.

    In an enduring sense, it was the Second World War that really changed the world. It consolidated the American Century, defined in part by conflict with the Soviet Republic and its empire; triggered the end of colonialism and its multi-faceted implications; created space for the assertion of international law; and provided the framework for the remarkable transformations of the past seven decades.

    How Australia changed

    Undoubtedly, the wars of the 20th century shaped – arguably even made – modern Australia. But this was not because of an ancient blood sacrifice in distant lands or even the closer strategic battles that followed. It was a product of the responses, realignments and decisions that followed.

    Every country has its most symbolic year from each of the world wars, and can trace the consequences of the bloodletting that accompanied the global realignment of the last century.

    In Australia this can be measured in many ways, but three major legacies stand out: increasing independence from Britain, deeper engagement with the rest of the world and more multiculturalism at home. It was in the aftermath of these wars that Australia found its voice in international forums – at Versailles and in the formation of both the League of Nations and United Nations.

    After excluding the Chinese, deporting German residents and treating the first Australians as subhuman a century ago, Australia slowly let down the gangplank and after the Second World War began again to welcome large numbers of people from all around the world. While the legal separation from Britain took much longer to achieve – and is still a work in progress – the reaction to the knighting of Prince Philip on Australia Day, 2015, suggests this is a project nearing completion.

    At a more prosaic level, one of the greatest media empires the world has ever known can trace its antecedents to the wartime reporting (and political dealmaking) of Sir Keith Murdoch. And it was the wartime experiences of Gough Whitlam that shaped his political agenda that was implemented three decades later, and still upholds the foundations of contemporary Australia.

    Not just an intellectual exercise

    It is striking that 2015 is the centenary of the Gallipoli offensive, the 70th anniversary of end of the Second World War in the Pacific, and the 40th anniversary of the end of the Vietnam War. This is a good time to reflect not only on the actions of those wars, but on their consequences and their enduring legacies.

    The battles are important, but the lessons to be learnt in their aftermath need to be interrogated to explain how we got where we are.

    This is essentially an intellectual exercise. Australians generally shy away from such activity, preferring celebration, commemoration and consumption. This year is replete with travel agents offering guided journeys to far-away battle sites (because, apart from Darwin, none of these modern wars occurred on mainland Australian soil), books, films, television series, exhibitions and coins.

    The ballot for places to attend the Gallipoli commemoration was massively oversubscribed. The Perth Mint’s 99.9% gold Baptism of Fire $5050 coin sold outquickly, but there are still plenty of the 99.9% silver Making of a Nation coins for just $99 and others from the Anzac series. The first episode of Channel Nine’s Gallipoli miniseries attracted more than one million viewers before sinking into ratings netherland.

    And the Splitters Creek Historical Group still has copies of Corporal Herbert Bensch’s colleague’s battlefront photo, and the list of many of those who died at Gallipoli 100 years ago.


    You can read a longer version of this article and others from the Griffith Review’s latest edition on the enduring legacies of war here.

    Julianne Schultz is the Founding Editor of Griffith Review; Professor, Centre for Public Culture and Ideas at Griffith University.

    This article was first published in The Conversation on 15 April 2015.

    See also:  http://honesthistory.net.au/wp/investing-our-legacies/

  • Bruce Kaye. Corporate Tax and Ethics Dodging

    The Senate committee hearings with testimony from high profile executives from some very large corporations have brought to notice the strategies to shift profits in order to avoid paying taxes in Australia.  The companies claim that they are acting legally.  The counter claim is that such manipulation of the law is unfair – it is not ethical.

    I am not competent to deal with the all complexities on tax law or the international agreements that are relevant to this problem.  But even those who are competent do seem to suggest that there are problems largely arising from the failure of the law to keep up with changing technology in relation to the jurisdictional character of a nation state.  Trevor Boucher has provided such a contribution on this blog.

    This is not a new problem.  The growth of large corporations in both Europe and the emerging US was greatly assisted by the introduction in law of limited liability for business corporations.  This change enabled the mobilisation of significant capital in order to undertake extensive enterprises.

    Limited liability was a compromise on the part of the community in which the corporation was located to limit liability where it would normally have arisen in order to get things done for the benefit of the community.  However the internationalisation of business enterprises in the twentieth century has complicated the nation state basis of the location and operation of corporations.  This has been vastly accelerated with the growth of the internet and of information technology generally. It is not surprising that the IT companies Google and Apple are in the spotlight in the present debate.

    Within nation states business corporations have gained significant influence on governments.  To some extent, we see that here in Australia but it is a trend that has advanced to a far greater degree in the US.  The capacity of the US government to secure legislation against the interests of business corporations is now very limited.

    There is no ethical reason that should inhibit governments making laws that favour business corporations, or any other organisations such as unions, charities, or a multitude of other corporations as long as those laws serve a discernible good for the community which the government exists to serve.  Such tax concessions are in principle not much different from grants given to organisations or groups in the community.  Enormous subsidies to the car industry over the years have been justified on the basis of a benefit to the community.  That is in essence an ethical judgement.

    Similarly grants to private schools, sporting bodies and a host of other community organisations are judgements made on the basis of a benefit to the community.  Not everyone agrees with every decision made by the government or particular ministers.  But that is part of the democratic character of the society in which we live.  People are free to seek to influence such decisions either to lobby for them or to campaign against them.  If they are to make a success of such endeavours they need to persuade either the broad community or those with authority to make decisions that their case is based on the benefit of the community.  That becomes an essentially ethical question – what is for the good of the community.

    In the current debate there is some talk about whether the corporation is acting unethically – is the profit shifting for tax avoidance unethical, or in its more usual form in the debate is it unfair.  In a number of senses the corporation has some of the characteristics of a person – it can be sued for example.  It has a corporate memory, it has patterns of internal operating relationships that can be seen to be more or less attractive in ethical terms.  It can be seen to have a corporate memory, though like the memory of an individual that does not mean that that memory will or should determine future actions.  However it is hard to see the corporation as in itself an ethical agent in the same sense in which a human individual is.  Nonetheless it remains the case that the corporation is a complex set of internal and external relationships which are susceptible of ethical appraisal.

    The key issue in the present situation is the decision making structure of the corporation, ultimately of the board.  In general board members are required to decide matters in terms of the purpose and well being of the corporation.  They are bound by what we might call an ethical obligation to the benefit of the corporation.  But as individuals they remain ethical agents who are not just board members but also citizens who belong to a community.  Their obligation to the corporation is secondary to their obligation to the community.

    An analogous issue applies to the taxation laws of a country.  Significantly these are related to treaties the country has entered into in relation to taxation and trade.  Subverting the operation of those treaties is surely an ethically ambiguous activity.  In this sense the actions of Google and Apple, if they are indeed legal under our laws and treaties then it is difficult not to see them as thereby ethical.  If, however, those laws no longer satisfy the community benefit or fairness test then it becomes an ethical obligation to campaign to change them.

    When they seem to us to be somehow unfair our options essentially are to work to reform the terms of operating, the law and the treaties.  Trevor Boucher has shown in his blog that this is not any easy task.

    However I think there are two things that can be attempted that might enable a better judgement.  The actual facts of the law (see Boucher) and the details of what the companies actually do should be made transparent to public examination.  That at least would enable clarity of thought. I think it is entirely reasonable to seek to persuade the company to change its practices.  They don’t have to do what they are doing.  So bringing informed pressure on the relevant board members would be an appropriate strategy.

    Clearly we need to persuade our government to address these issues and to seek to bring the law and the relevant treaties into line with the changed circumstances. Again there is nothing like exposure to public gaze.

    In all this however we would be wise to recognise that Australia is a minnow internationally in this and we should expect the international giants to look after their own interests.

     

    Bruce Kaye is an Anglican Theologian currently an Adjunct Research Professor At  Charles Sturt University. He previously taught a course on the rise and role of the business corporation at UNSW. He was formerly General Secretary of the Anglican Church of Australia. 

  • Trevor Boucher. International Tax : Some Constraints

    I certainly would not want to be seen as an apologist for multinational company groups in the current debate on what to do about profit-shifting tax avoidance activities of groups like Google and Apple.

    But there are some significant legal/technical obstacles in the way of solutions.

    Like other countries, Australia taxes each company in a group on the basis of where it is resident. An Australian resident is liable here on its worldwide income, but a foreign resident is taxed by Australia only on income with an Australian “source”. Put simply, profits have a source where the activity that generates the relevant income is located.

    Our taxing rights are affected by the some 40 legally-binding (but terminable) tax treaties that Australia has with other countries. They are part of a world-wide net of such treaties, based on an OECD model. One key rule is that Australia can’t tax the business profits of a company resident in a treaty country unless it has a “permanent establishment” (PE) here. The concept of “permanent establishment” and the terms in which it is expressed –“ a fixed place of business”- were formulated in pre-information technology “old world” days of bricks and mortar, when there was a clear physical place where income producing activity was carried on.

    In defined circumstances an agent in Australia of a foreign company could be a PE of that company, eg if the agent had authority to conclude contracts on its behalf. However with the availability and speed of technology, and no doubt readily available structuring advice, it is not difficult for groups like Apple and Google to so arrange things that their subsidiary that is drawing income from Australia does not have (for them) unwanted PE status.

    The OECD /G20 is looking at this, with (as far as can be seen) attention being given to to patching up the agency rules. International consensus on changes, followed by bilateral or multilateral treaties and domestic enabling legislation is likely to be a drawn out affair. I am not holding my breath. How readily will the US sign on to measures that cause its companies to pay more foreign tax?

    The UK (with a coming election) is going alone, despite OECD criticism, with its own “diverted profits tax” to address the exploitation of treaty provisions. Is Australia to follow with a similar unilateral approach? If one says that profits are diverted there must be a status from which the diversion takes place. If that status is determined by the existing “old world” tax treaties the UK approach might involve going around in circles. Also, each tax treaty has a standard provision that requires that its rules and limitations apply also to any later substantially similar taxes imposed in addition to the existing taxes.

    On a different tack, let’s look at what a customer in Australia pays for an Apple device. We have been given to understand that this dealing is with a Singapore subsidiary that does not have a PE in Australia. Even if it did, only a small part of sales receipts would properly be taxable here. The devices are manufactured in another country and employ foreign- developed technology for which some royalty expense can properly be charged. Achievement of sales does not require a big marketing effort in Australia. We in Australia would think it inappropriate if China were to say that the whole or a substantial part of an Australian company’s receipts from the export to that country of Australian iron ore or coal was a profit made in China.

    Turning to Google, if you place one of the ads from which it makes its money you are, apparently, dealing with a Singapore subsidiary that does not have a PE in Australia (see above).Courtesy of the technology you may be interacting with a computer or human being in another country/ countries. These days, that is not all that strange – when we ring up about a phone problem we can find that we are speaking to someone in the Philippines who can deal with it from there. A bank matter may involve use of a person in India. A daily newspaper finds it cheaper to have its sub editing done in New Zealand. In other words, use of overseas-located technology does not in itself speak of tax avoidance.

    Coming at it another way, however, Google’s advertising service offered to Australians does have an Australian character. Technically though, it is a business profit shielded from Australian tax by the PE rule. In 1968, faced with a similar inability to tax know-how and other like payments we developed a new definition of “royalty” , gave royalties a statutory “source” in Australia where they are paid by an Australian resident  or are an expense of  a “permanent establishment” here. Without exception, we excluded them from the PE rule in all subsequent treaties.

    The US itself, home to major multinationals, is necessarily part of any solution. A US parent is taxed there on foreign subsidiary profits remitted home as income, credit being allowed for foreign tax paid. Profits diverted into tax haven subsidiaries and not paid up to the parent are not taxed , although they are available for group use. In 1962, “controlled foreign corporations” laws were introduced to tax parents on income so diverted. (BHP has said that it pays our CFC  tax on income of its Singapore marketing company.) However, the US protective rules have major loopholes which Congress has not seen fit to close. Seemingly, the US prefers the extra tax-free clout that the loopholes give to their corporations over the contribution to its revenue that effective taxation would achieve.

    Were the US to tax effectively, US groups would (because of availability of credit for foreign tax paid) have less incentive to avoid Australian and other foreign taxes.

    The Government’s discussion paper would have us believe that a reduction in Australia’s company tax would lessen avoidance incentives. Well, for companies addicted to tax minimisation it would have to be a very big reduction. A reduction in our rate would do two things: for Australian-resident shareholders it would mean smaller imputation credits and thus more personal tax, while for foreign shareholders the benefit would accrue to them or the Treasury of their country.

    It’s not easy.

     

    Trevor Boucher was Australian Commissioner of Taxation 1984-93. This was followed by two years as Australia’s Ambassador to the OECD.

     

     

  • Judith Crispin. Anzac day, the Armenian Genocide and destruction of cultural heritage in the Caucasus.

    “Generally speaking, genocide does not necessarily mean the immediate destruction of a nation, except when accomplished by mass killings of all members of a nation. It is intended rather to signify a coordinated plan of different actions aiming at the destruction of essential foundations of the life of national groups, with the aim of annihilating the groups themselves. The objectives of such a plan would be disintegration of the political and social institutions, of culture, language, national feelings, religion, and the economic existence of national groups, and the destruction of the personal security, liberty, health, dignity, and even the lives of the individuals belonging to such groups. Genocide is directed against the national group as an entity, and the actions involved are directed against individuals, not in their individual capacity, but as members of the national group.”

    Raphael Lemkin, Axis Rule in Occupied Europe: Laws of Occupation – Analysis of Government – Proposals for Redress (1944)

    As we prepare to commemorate one hundred years since Australian forces landed at Anzac Cove, we might spare a thought for the victims of the Armenian genocide.

    Causal connections between the April 25 Gallipoli landings and the order by the Ottoman Minister of the Interior on April 24 to round up and execute Armenian intellectuals, do not feature in our Government-curated Anzac narrative. To our shame, Australia is not among the twenty-two nations that formally recognise Turkey’s massacre of 1.5 million Armenians as genocide.

    One may wonder why it should matter if Australia continues to exclude the Armenian Genocide from its national story. But there are three good reasons to bring this particular genocide into public discourse and our Anzac commemorations.

    Firstly, genocides are not simply crimes against a specific people, they are crimes against all humanity, and participating in their denial shames us as a nation. Common decency compels us to stand beside the Armenians on April 24 to denounce their historical genocide, as, indeed, we should denounce all genocides. This is my first and most important reason for urging Australia to recognise the Armenian Genocide.

    But it is also worth noting that by continuing to deny the 1915 genocide, we miss out on an opportunity to honour Australia’s extraordinary humanitarian response to that event. Captured Australian servicemen held by the Ottomans in Turkey were unwilling eyewitnesses to the Armenian, Greek and Assyrian genocides. They essentially blew the whistle on Ottoman atrocities in the region.

    Captain Thomas Walter White of the Australian Flying Corps, for example, reported mass Armenian graves in northern Mesopotamia and western Turkey. In the Jordan valley, Australian soldiers rescued Armenian refugees and a famously recounted story tells of Colonel Arthur Mills carrying a sleeping four-year-old Armenian girl to safety on his camel.

    During the war, atrocities against Armenians were reported by Australian newspapers. Returning Australian soldiers, many of whom had assisted Armenian refugees in Turkey, joined the civilian Armenian relief fund. This grassroots movement raised millions in relief funds for the Armenian cause, and remains the largest humanitarian effort in Australian history.

    It seems ludicrous that our Anzac commemorations focus on Britain’s failed Gallipoli campaign, which took almost 9000 Australian lives, but do not acknowledge the extraordinary humanitarian efforts toward the Armenians by allied soldiers and civilian Australians.

    Another compelling reason to talk about the Armenian Genocide is to challenge the assumption that all of this occurred in the past and has no connection to current events. Ripples from the 1915 genocide can be clearly observed in Jihardi attacks on ancient Assyrian/Persian culture that we are reading about right now.

    It must be emphasised that Lemkin’s definition of genocide signifies “a coordinated plan of different actions aiming at the destruction of essential foundations of the life of national groups, with the aim of annihilating the groups themselves.” This coordinated plan, which Lemkin suggests might include “disintegration of the political and social institutions, of culture, language, national feelings, religion” extends beyond the mass murder of an ethnic group in its intentions.

    Genocide seeks to wipe out all traces of a people—physically, culturally and historically. The current destruction of cultural monuments across the middle and near east has its very roots in the 1915 Armenian Genocide. When we watch ISIS destroy Assyrian monuments on You Tube, we are seeing something that was set in motion a hundred years ago—something that might not have occurred if the international world had held Turkey to account over the genocide.

    Why, then, has Australia become an active participant in an effort to conceal the Armenian Genocide? Particularly given that Australia’s humanitarian efforts, and the rescue of Armenians by our soldiers in Ottoman Turkey remain unacknowledged as a direct result. The answer appears to be that Australia has buckled beneath the pressure of conjoined denialist efforts by Azerbaijan and Turkey—denial of both the 1915 Armenian Genocide and the ongoing cultural genocides in their countries. Only by bringing these events into the light of day will Australia regain its own dignified and honest history.

    On the evening of April 24, 1915, sometimes called “Red Sunday”, Ottoman officials arrested 250 Armenian intellectuals in Constantinople before deporting and murdering them. The order, given by Minister of the Interior Talaat Pasha the day before the Allies landed at Gallipoli, marked the start of the Armenian Genocide.

    This murderous campaign was part of a wider extermination program targeting Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks who were seen as obstacles to Turkey’s unification with Turkic tribes in Azerbaijan and the creation of a grand Pan Turkish region.

    The 1915 massacres merged seamlessly into later Turkish-Azerbaijani efforts to eliminate Armenian culture in Nakhichevan, in the early 2000s, and current attacks on Assyrian culture in Iraq by ISIS and their affiliates. The Ottomans went on to massacre between 1 and 1.5 million people in a government organised and systematic genocide.

    Often described by Historians as the precursor to the Jewish Holocaust, the Armenian Genocide was chillingly similar in detail to events engineered twenty-five years later by the Third Reich.

    Armenians were murdered in concentration camps. They were gassed or sent on death marches into the Syrian Desert. Approximately 80,000 Armenians were set alight in haylofts and stables across the Muş plain. Thousands of others were taken into the Black Sea or the Euphrates and drowned. So many Armenian corpses were left in the Euphrates, in fact, that the course of the river was temporarily changed. The New York Times described hundreds of Armenians in crammed cattle trains or driven along Syrian roads “strewn with corpses”.

    Like their Third Reich successors, the Ottoman Empire conducted medical experiments on their Armenian prisoners, injecting them with Typhoid infected blood and overdoses of morphine. Armenian businesses, farms, houses and private property were confiscated and financial institutions were ordered to turn over all Armenian assets to the Ottoman government.

    The 1919 trials and court-martials of Ottoman officials firmly condemned Turkish atrocities against Armenians—and, in 1921, assassin Soghomon Tehlirian hunted down and executed former Turkish Grand Vizier Talaat Pasha in Berlin. The trial of Soghomon Tehlirian, which revealed an undercover operation to kill the architects of the Armenian Genocide, horrified international lawyer Raphael Lemkin. He went on, in 1943, to coin the word “genocide” to describe the Ottoman massacre of Armenians.

    Since the 1920s Turkey has undertaken a systematic and highly funded campaign to oppose international acknowledgement of the Armenian genocide.

    But what has this got to do with cultural destruction? The beginnings of Armenian culture can be traced to Nakhichevan’s founding, in modern day Azerbaijan, during 3669BC. According to tradition Nakhichevan, whose name derives from the Armenian “Nakhnakan Ichevan” (Նախնական Իջևան), meaning, “first landing place”, was established by Noah after the Biblical deluge.

    It was in this land, shadowed by holy Mt Ararat, that the theologian Mesrob Mashtots first created the Armenian Alphabet and founded the earliest Armenian schools.

    In 1605 the population of Julfa, an important Armenian centre in Nakhichevan, were forcibly relocated to Persia by Shah Abbas. The town of Julfa was destroyed to prevent the Armenians returning but, recognising the importance of its historic cemetery, Shah Abbas ordered his soldiers to leave it untouched.

    Julfa cemetery, which graced the banks of the river Arax, once held 10,000 ornate Armenian khachkars (cross-stones) from the 15th and 16th century, inscribed with Christian crosses, suns, flowers and climbing plants. Alongside these khachkars stood tombstones from the late 6th century and undated pagan gravemarkers from even earlier. This extraordinary cemetery, spread over three hills on Nakhichevan’s border with Iran, was home to the largest collection of East Christian cultural monuments on earth.

    In 1920 Nakhichevan was declared part of Azerbaijan, a decision reinforced by the Treaty of Kars. This Treaty created a new border between Turkey and Armenia—ceding Armenia’s holy mountain Ararat to Turkey as well as important cities and the ancient ruins of Ani.

    The last remaining 2,000 Armenians were deported from Nakhichevan in 1989. Official Azerbaijani historical records now state that Armenians did not live in the South Caucasus before the 19th century.

    A premeditated campaign to erase all traces of early Armenian culture in Nakhichevan has been undertaken by the Azerbaijan Government. Of around 280 named Armenian churches in Nakhichevan, few remain standing today.

     

    In 2005, in direct violation of the 1948 UN Convention on Cultural Heritage, Azerbaijani authorities demolished Julfa cemetery’s priceless khachkars with bulldozers, loaded the crushed fragments onto trucks and emptied them into the river Arax. Video footage and photographs taken from the Iranian bank of the river captured almost 100 Azerbaijani servicemen destroying Julfa’s khachkars with sledgehammers and other tools.

    Demands by The European Parliament in 2006 that “Azerbaijan allow missions, such as experts working with ICOMOS who are dedicated to surveying and protecting archaeological heritage, in particular Armenian heritage, onto its territory, and that it also allow a European Parliament delegation to visit the archaeological site at Julfa”, were refused.

    Shortly thereafter, Nakhichevan authorities constructed a military shooting range on the very ground where thousands of human remains lie, still unmarked.

    Despite compelling evidence in photographs, video and satellite images, Azerbaijan has consistently denied the destruction of Julfa cemetery.

    What we are witnessing now, in Australia’s refusal to recognise the Armenian Genocide, is the result of a combined denialist campaign by two politically and militarily allied countries, capable of exerting huge pressure on the international community through Turkey’s NATO role and Azerbaijan’s control of oil.

    This combined effort has effectively silenced discourse around the conjoined events of the 1915 genocide and the ongoing destruction of Christian monuments in Azerbaijan, Turkey and elsewhere. In achieving this goal, Azerbaijan and Turkey have concealed important historical contexts for understanding recent attacks on Assyrian culture by ISIS and their affiliates.

    Turkey and Azerbaijan’s deliberate efforts to blind international politics to past and present crimes against humanity has been tolerated by Australia, ostensibly, for the sake of Anzac Cove photo opportunities in 2015.

    Turkey’s exclusion of NSW MPs from the 2015 Anzac Cove ceremony because of bipartisan support for a Parliamentary motion to recognise the Armenian Genocide, demonstrates a clear intention to use Anzac day to blackmail Australia into supporting Turkish denialism. Treasurer Joe Hockey, of Armenian heritage, called for Federal Parliament to formally recognise the Armenian Genocide while in opposition, yet refuses to jeopardise his dealings with Turkey now that he is in Government.

    But the international tide is turning. In response to Pope Francis’s recent statement that the 1915 massacres in Armenia constituted the “the first genocide of the 20th century,” Turkey recalled its ambassador to the Holy See. Following The European Parliament’s resolution to adopt the same term, genocide, in relation to Armenian history, Turkish President Erdogan stated, “It is out of the question for there to be a stain, a shadow called ‘genocide’ on Turkey.”

    Many eminent Turkish academics presently advocate for genocide recognition, motivated by the same desire for historical truth that should be inspiring Australia’s own stance on the issue. Only by acknowledging this genocide can Turkey honour its past national heroes, the Oscar Schindler’s of the Ottoman Empire—men like Mehmet Celal Bey and others who saved thousands of Armenians from persecution.

    Genocide includes massacres, but is not limited to massacres. Any systematised and organised attempt to erase a people should be considered an act of genocide.

    When a force, such as the Ottoman-Turks and their Azerbaijani allies, seeks to destroy all traces of a people through mass murder, through destroying their cultural monuments and through an extensive and well-funded rewriting of history—there can be no doubt that we are speaking of Genocide. Australia’s role in the Armenian Genocide was humanitarian, admirable and praise-worthy. We should never forget that—but we should never have allowed our legacy to be tainted by Turkey’s efforts to suppress historical truth.

    Perhaps this Anzac Day we will remember that our greatest victory at Gallipoli was not at Anzac Cove. What brought lasting honour to our nation is symbolised in the image of a four-year-old Armenian girl carried in the arms of an Australian camel-mounted soldier, to safety.

    Dr Judith Crispin is the Director of Manning Clark House in Canberra. A practising artist, composer and writer, Judith is an honorary fellow of th Australian Catholic University and part of an international research team working on the digital repatriation of ancient Armenian culture.

     

     

  • Government White Paper on Energy – the good, the bad and the ugly.

    In the Australian Financial Review on 15 April, Ross Garnaut comments about the Abbott Government’s Energy White Paper. He says that by failing to take global warming seriously, the White Paper discourages solar power, encourages doomed coal investment, hobbles the RET and misses the chance to raise petrol taxes.  John Menadue.

    See link to article below:

    http://afr.com/opinion/columns/abbott-governments-energy-white-paper-fails-to-face-reality-20150414-1mkroh

  • Paul Komesaroff, Alphonso Lingis, Modjtaba Sadria. Julie Bishop can reach out to Iran now that confrontation has failed.

    Foreign Minister Julie Bishop’s visit to Tehran this week presents a rare opportunity for Australia to take the lead in global diplomacy. The publicly stated goal of the trip has been limited to the dubious intention of convincing the Rouhani government to allow Iranian nationals seeking asylum in Australia to return without fear of victimisation. But the implications of the visit are much more important and far-reaching than that.

    The need for a diplomatic initiative to change the dynamic in relations with Iran is obvious. As the mounting crisis in the Middle East reminds us every day, the policy of confrontation has failed. Contrary to the efforts of hawks around the world – including in the US Congress – a more nuanced strategy of dialogue and engagement is urgently needed.

    Hawks have made us less secure

    Not only has the approach based on isolation and unrelenting economic and political pressure failed, but it has been catastrophically counterproductive for all sides. International trade has suffered and security has not improved.

    The withdrawal of countries from the Iranian market under pressure of sanctions policies – as in the case of Japan – has simply opened up opportunities for competitors such as China and Russia. It has played no role in generating meaningful progress on the nuclear issue. The Iranian economy has been brought to the point of collapse, with disastrous effects for ordinary citizens but little impact on the opulent lifestyles of many officials and wealthy businessmen.

    If these facts are not enough, the ongoing, desperately tragic events in the region should be the game changer. The long-term stand-off between the US and Iran has prevented solutions to arguably the most important and dangerous problems in the world today.

    There can be no resolution to the civil war in Syria without the cooperation of Iran. Defeat of Islamic State and its hateful ideology requires the forging of a partnership between Iran and the West. The re-Islamisation of Turkey can only be resisted with support from the secular traditions exemplified in Iranian history and culture. Overcoming the impasse in Lebanon and Gaza associated with the continuing influence of Hezbollah and Hamas will only be possible when Iran considers it to be no longer in its interests to support them.

    What can Australia do?

    Julie Bishop’s visit comes at a perfect time. The recent successes in the P5+1 negotiations in Geneva, in which Iran signalled its agreement to accept significant restrictions to its nuclear program, have for the first time in decades created a climate of genuine hope for change. The agreement is yet to be ratified by both sides – and approval by the US Congress is by no means assured. It is, however, an indication that at least some politicians on both sides recognise the urgency of the situation and the need to go beyond the useless hostility of the past.

    This is where Australia can step in and take the lead. Exactly what political rapprochement with Iran will ultimately look like is uncertain but we can play an important role in shaping it.

    The possibilities could involve an agreement to scale down funding of extremist anti-Israeli organisations and a negotiated transition of power in Syria. In exchange, Iran would get renewed access to world markets and all that comes with active membership of the international community. The possibility of a military alliance to bring a quick end to the Islamic State and to restore stability to Iraq – an idea unthinkable only months ago – should not be ruled out.

    Civil society offers many ways to engage

    Relations with Iran involve more than just interactions between governments. There is also direct engagement between our own civil society and the many non-government groups there. This is the approach we must adopt to forge a new relationship between Iran and the West in order to overcome the grim legacy of the last 35 years.

    Iran is a large, complex society with vast resources and a population close to 80 million. More than 20 million are university students and graduates. The members of the vast, educated, entrepreneurial middle class are the main supporters of democracy; they are the natural allies of Western partners hoping for more relaxed and open social policies in Iran.

    Ironically, the members of this group have been the principal victims of sanctions policies. They have been left exposed politically and as a result of the growing unemployment and radicalisation of youth these policies have produced.

    This is the time for a change in direction in the policies of the world community towards Iran to allow normal economic and cultural intercourse to resume. It is time to scale down the sanctions and to become engaged, openly and generously, with different levels of Iranian society.

    The depth of the past hostility may mean that any changes have to occur incrementally. Both sides will need to test the viability and local acceptance of a gradual re-establishment of exchanges between them.

    The places to start are the safe areas of education, culture and business. All these areas offer exciting opportunities for Australia.

    Educational exchanges could help restore our crisis-ridden educational sector, while assisting Iran in overcoming a critical shortage of high-quality knowledge providers. There are almost unlimited possibilities for two-way cultural exchanges that draw on the thriving Iranian culture industry, especially in film, music and literature. Business people will find an inexhaustible thirst for new products, from electronic goods to fashion, to new techniques for producing renewable energy.

    Western countries have discovered again and again that bullying tactics are often counterproductive but that quiet victories can be won by cultural and economic engagement. In the case of Iran the bullying – in which Australia has been a willing partner — has failed. It is time to try the gentle alternative.

    Iranian society is ready for change

    Iran is a complex modern society that is ready for change. We in Australia can support this process by fostering dialogue and cultural and economic exchanges with Iranian civil society. More positive and constructive policies will create a win-win situation for all.

    If the opportunity is lost, the outcomes will be dire for all the players, not just in the region itself, but also in Europe and the United States.

    Let us hope that in her discussions with the Iranian government the foreign minister is able to move beyond the question of asylum seekers and seize the opportunity to stimulate a movement away from the failed policies of the past towards a more fruitful – and safer – commitment to dialogue, reconciliation and mutual prosperity. All of our futures might depend on it.

    Paul Komesaroff is Professor Medicine at Monash University. Alphonso Lingis is Professor Emeritus of Philosophy at Pennsylvania State Uniersity,  Modjtaba Sadria is Desmond Tutu Reconciliation Fellow,  Director, Think Tank for Knowledge Excellence, Tehran, Adjunct Professor at Monash University.  

    This article first appeared in The Conversation on 15 April 2015.

  • Marilyn Lake. Fracturing the nation’s soul.

    You might be interested in this repost. John Menadue.

     

    During World War 1 Australia lost its way. Its enmeshment in the imperial European war fractured the nation’s soul.

    World War I had consequences for individuals as well as nations. HB Higgins’s life would be deeply affected by the British decision to invade the Ottoman empire in early 1915. As a member of the new federal parliament in 1901, Higgins had opposed Australian participation in the Boer War, fearing that this would set a terrible precedent for involvement in other imperial wars, whose purpose, goals and strategy would always be determined by other powers. He also doubted the legitimacy of the European war, writing to his friend Felix Frankfurter, Professor in Law at Harvard, ‘What do you think of it? … [T]here are higher ideals than attachment to a country because it is my country. I blame our British jingoes…’ Higgins was deeply troubled when his only child Mervyn elected to join British forces fighting in the Middle East.

    When his son was killed in battle on 23 December 1916 Higgins and his wife Alice were devastated. Higgins poured his grief – and his bitterness over the imperial cant that had justified the war – into a new commitment to internationalism and disarmament. The only good that might come out of the war was not national pride, but a new world order. ‘Vengeance is a fruitless thing’, he wrote to Frankfurter. ‘I feel that the best vengeance my dead boy could hope for would be an integrated world, an organized humanity.’ No nationalist flag-waving or eulogies to the Anzac spirit for him.

    We tend to forget the doubts and expressions of opposition to Australia’s participation in World War I in which in fact only 30 per cent of eligible men chose to enlist. The anti-war mobilisations have largely gone unheeded in official and contemporary accounts of the war, which have recast the widespread destruction as a creative experience, one that gave ‘birth to the nation’, conveniently forgetting that our distinctive Commonwealth of Australia, with its world famous democratic reforms, made its name on the world stage in the years before the war, between 1901 and 1914. Australian nation-building was a peace time achievement.

    A decade before the outbreak of the European war, in 1904, an American visitor to Australia, Victor Clark, one of a number of investigators who journeyed south to Australasia, noted that ‘New Zealand and Australia are the most interesting legislative experiment stations in the world and they experiment so actively because their political institutions are extremely democratic’. The colony of Victoria had first invented the idea of a legal minimum wage in 1896, which was later elaborated as a living wage calculated to meet the diverse needs of workers defined as human beings, in the Commonwealth Conciliation and Arbitration Court by HB Higgins, in the Harvester judgment of 1907. Australia and New Zealand had pioneered industrial democracy and women’s political rights. ‘While the principles of democracy were first enunciated in the United States’, noted the historically-minded American suffragist, Carrie Chapman Catt, ‘Australia has carried them furthest to their logical conclusion’. Thus did we take our place on the world stage, not in fighting an imperial war.

    In Australia, it was noted by numerous overseas commentators, the working man and the voting woman advanced together, during the first decade of the nation’s existence, which saw a steady increase in the Labor vote, until the Fisher Government was elected, with majorities in both Houses in 1910. By war’s end, however, the Labor Party had split, conservative forces had triumphed, and the British Empire had gained a new lease of life in Australia. In World War 1 Australia lost its way. Its enmeshment in the imperial European war fractured the nation’s soul.

    Let’s look at this impact further through the experience of Higgins, now a largely forgotten Australian, but one of our unsung national heroes. Henry Bourne Higgins was a member of the Victorian Legislative Assembly in 1896, when it introduced the minimum wage. He became an opponent, as noted above, of the British imperial war in South Africa, a member of the federal parliament from 1901 and then, from 1906, President of the Commonwealth Court of Conciliation and Arbitration, whose path-breaking reforms, shaped by a profound commitment to social justice and the public good, won him renown around the world. In 1914, he was invited by the Harvard Law Review to contribute an article on his innovative jurisprudence which he titled ‘A New Province for Law and Order: Industrial Peace through Minimum Wage and Arbitration’.

    By 1920, however, the conservative backlash unleashed by the impact of World War I and the fevered imperialism of Prime Minister WM Hughes, who sought to by-pass the Arbitration Court by setting up his own tribunals saw Higgins submit his resignation. It would seem appropriate to remember Higgins, the Australian idealist, and others of his generation, as we prepare to deal with the veritable tidal wave of military commemoration, funded already by $140 million, even as our universities face further funding cuts, increased student fees and the number of historians employed to teach students actually declines. Which funding bodies, one wonders, might finance commemoration of those who fought for Australia’s distinctive democratic and political ideals and support projects to carry their ideals forward?

    My current research project on the international history of Australian democracy has highlighted Australia’s high reputation around the world before World War I as a distinctive, pioneering, bold, independent-minded democracy. It was the perspective afforded by distance that enabled American Professor Hammond of Ohio State University to write of ‘the most notable experiment yet made in social democracy’ established in Australia in the first years of the Commonwealth, in the years preceding the outbreak of war.

    In 1902, in the shadow of the South African War, HB Higgins wrote an essay called ‘Australian ideals’ in which he asked prophetically whether the new Commonwealth of Australia was to become a militaristic nation or a progressive one: ‘Australia must make her choice between two ideals – the ideal of militarism and the ideal of equality’. Australians had to choose between the opposing standards of militarism and social reform, he suggested. He and his generation dedicated themselves to the latter, while we in our time seem to have committed to the former. Australian values we are now ceaselessly told are military values.

    One hundred years on from 1914, Australia has seemingly become the militarist nation Higgins warned about. Rather than celebrate the world-first democratic achievements forged by women and men in the founding years of our nationhood, the years that made Australia distinctive and renowned, we are told that World War I, in which Australians fought for the British Empire, was the supreme creative event for the nation. But those who lived through it knew that our nation was not born in the carnage of the world war, which left the country divided, disillusioned, disoriented, desolate and dependent on a resurgent British Empire.

    In the inimitable words of novelist Miles Franklin, writing to her American friend Margaret Drier Robins in 1924,

    it seems to me that Australia, which took a wonderful lurch ahead in all progressive laws and women’s advancement about 20 years ago has stagnated ever since. At present it is more unintelligently conservative and conventional than England and I am sad to see the kangaroo and his fellow marsupials and all the glories of our forests disappearing to make room for a mediocre repetition of Europe.

    Miles Franklin knew that although men could do many things they could not give birth to nations. Only women could do that. And in 1902, Australian women’s political ‘lurch ahead’ had made Australia the most democratic country on earth, an object lesson to humanity.

    Marilyn Lake is Professor in History at the University of Melbourne.