Michael Keating

I had the privilege of serving closely all of the Prime Ministers from Whitlam to Howard. Each of them sought this office because they wanted to pursue a policy agenda they thought would make Australia better. However, the evidence suggests that Scott Morrison is different – his objective is seemingly limited to being there. (more…)

This article takes issue with a recent article by John Menadue which argues that a largely unchallenged and powerful oligarchy is wielding untrammelled political power. Instead, a number of other reasons are proposed as to why our political parties have fragmented, and how that has made the achievement of necessary policy compromises more difficult. Nevertheless, there is a way forward for a progressive party. (more…)

Many pundits are arguing that if Labor is to become competitive at the next election it must focus on economic growth and jobs and abandon or at least downgrade its policies for income redistribution and to combat climate change. The evidence, however, is precisely the reverse. It is these policies that are the key to future economic growth and jobs. (more…)

Prime Minister Morrison says that he will make sure that government services are reliable and responsive to the needs of those “quiet Australians” whose legitimate expectations are consistent with past practice and social conventions. What that means for the growing number of other Australians, who are less able to have a go and look after themselves, is apparently of no great concern. (more…)

The last twelve months has seen GDP per capita fall in Australia, but the Government and its key advisers still expect the economy to recover to trend rates of growth in the current financial year. Nevertheless, the Reserve Bank is still calling for more fiscal stimulus, while on the other hand the new Secretary of the Treasury has raised the possibility that wage growth (and by implication economic growth) may not return to past trend rates of increase because of structural changes in the economy. (more…)

The Morrison Government has reaffirmed its commitment to expand the Snowy Scheme as a key part of its strategy to meet its target for carbon emissions. However, independent estimates suggest that the cost and completion date is blowing out dramatically. In addition, it is argued here that the pumped hydro power from the Snowy Scheme will no longer be economically viable when coal-fired power is phased out. (more…)

Australia is currently experiencing a severe drought; possibly the most severe on record. Not surprisingly there have been calls for governments to do more. Some have even claimed that Australia lacks a proper drought policy. This article discusses the key features of an ideal drought policy, and what are the respective responsibilities of those being assisted – mainly farmers – and governments that are the principal source of any assistance. (more…)

Donald Trump is deluded if he thinks that raising tariffs will reduce the US trade deficit. That deficit represents the fact that the US is spending more than it earns. Unless this fact is altered – and Trump has increased the fiscal deficit – the increase in US tariffs will automatically be offset by an appreciation of the exchange rate. Back in the 1980s Australian farmers and miners understood this elementary fact, and that is why they successfully lobbied to reduce tariff protection of Australian manufacturing. (more…)

By any standard, Scott Morrison’s Government has a very threadbare policy agenda. Furthermore, the Government seems resistant to new ideas, whether they are from its backbench or the public service. According to Scott Morrison the role of the public service is limited to implementing government policy, which may help explain the thinness of his Government’s policy agenda. (more…)

Scott Morrison is on record as saying that no programs or services will be cut to pay for the tax cuts. The evidence, however, suggests that real government outlays will decline on a per capita basis, which would seem to mean that services will contract. (more…)

Spatial inequality has risen dramatically over Australia in the last forty years, and our cities are in many ways becoming less liveable. This article draws on the recent CSIRO report on the Australian National Outlook to summarise the major policy shift that is required affecting urban development to enable well-connected, affordable cities that offer more equal access to jobs, lifestyle amenities, education and other services.

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A very significant new report was released last week on the Australian National Outlook. In this article, I summarise the report’s discussion of the key challenges and policy choices that Australia faces, which will affect our future over the next fifty years. (more…)

Returning the Budget to surplus has been an article of faith in most Australian political dialogue for the last decade. However, with stagnant economic growth and the Government’s proposed tax cuts, there is a real risk that Budget surpluses cannot be sustained. On the other hand, some people who are concerned that more public spending is needed to maintain services, have argued that these can be deficit funded. Instead this article argues that in the long run Australia will need to augment its taxation revenue if it wants to maintain the public expenditure required to achieve reasonable economic growth and welfare. (more…)

Labor should oppose the second and third round of the Government’s proposed tax cuts which only take effect after the next election. The future is too uncertain to lock-in these tax cuts now. Furthermore, reasonable projections raise strong doubts whether they can be afforded, and they do not represent the best way to increase economic growth. (more…)

Labor went into the recent election with a comprehensive economic plan. Many commentators have blamed Labor’s election loss on this plan, and its support for modest redistribution, thus raising the question of where does Labor go from here?…Labor needs to sell the message that redistribution is essential to sustain economic growth. (more…)

As usual the state of the economy and its management are likely to play a central role in the forthcoming election. With the election now only six weeks away and the Budget tomorrow, it is timely to consider the true state of the economy and its management.  (more…)