China looms large in the Australian psyche. On a practical level, what happens in China largely determines the success of global action to deal with climate change, the profitability of our rural economy and the financing of our universities. Our national leaders are concerned about rising tensions in our region and the interplay of US-China relations. How are we to find our way through media doom and gloom and come to grips with the reality of China? (more…)
Category: China
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Behind the ‘Red Curtain’: Decoding China’s institutional logics
Instead of simply aligning their interests with the US, it is critical for US allies such as Australia to find a new balance in the great power rivalry between Washington and Beijing, and to develop their own strategic approach toward China. Among other things, this will require an understanding of how policy is formulated behind China’s ‘red curtains’. (more…)
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China: The challenge of complexity
All of us here can probably agree that we are currently living in a time of greater strategic uncertainty and challenge than at any time since the end of World War II, and certainly since the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s. China is seen as being at the epicentre of this. (more…)
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The United States has troops operating inside China
There’s a lot of controversy over what China is doing in the South China Sea, but there seems to be very little in the way of perspective. The recent “water attack” on Philippines vessels was not a hostile act by a military nation, it was a Chinese Coastguard ship deterring another nation from building on a disputed island. China’s actions are overshadowed by the immense US military presence encircling China, and now extending to US troops operating inside China. (more…)
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Post-strategic ambiguity and Australia’s Taiwan problem
“What will Australia do in the event of a US-PRC war over Taiwan?” is now a question that must be openly and deliberately addressed. Across nine presidential administrations, “strategic ambiguity” promoted regional stability. The flip-flops of the current Biden Administration have cast doubt on the efficacy of “strategic ambiguity”, as the means of deterring war over Taiwan, as American pundits, generals and politicians loudly anticipate imminent conflict in the next three to five years. (more…)
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ASPI’s call for a militia – a step to military madness
The Australian economy is increasingly becoming a war economy. The PM talks of the economic benefits of weapons manufacture, and of how the military and a growing military-industrial-complex is almost a job creation scheme. The media works diligently to build and sustain a sense of fear. But even so, the warmongers of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and their stablemate, Strategic Analysis Australia (SAA) are not satisfied. (more…)
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The empire breaks down
The West’s decline is no triumph, but nor is it a tragedy. It’s just the latest reminder that all organising systems, even empires, are transient, that success always brings complacency, but that the best of human civilisation is renewed and transformed even as the old order fades away. (more…)
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Australian foreign policy is traditionally hitched to the US – but the rise of China requires a middle path for a middle power
Few nation-states have been shaped by their underlying physical geography and location in the world quite as much as Australia. (more…)
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Target China: US plans to goad Beijing into Taiwan war
The Biden Administration is implementing a plan to draw Taiwan into a direct military confrontation with the People’s Republic of China. (more…)
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What Albanese could seek to achieve in China visit
Whether Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit China in 2023 remains uncertain, but the odds are favourable. Beijing has issued an invitation and Albanese said that the trip remains ‘likely’. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has confirmed that Canberra ‘would look to make sure that a visit can occur’. But there remain two factors that might derail a visit. (more…)
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Of 24 countries, Australia has the most unfavourable view of China
Views of China – and its soft power – are more positive in middle-income countries. (more…)
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Beijing and Canberra should go with the grain of their improving relations
Based on its review of “the changes in the Chinese barley market” that it started in April this year, the Commerce Ministry on Saturday lifted the anti-dumping and countervailing duties it levied on imported Australian barley from May 2020. (more…)
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The ASPI interference machine: China is everywhere
It’s hard to credit, but the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) continues its incessant grumbling about forms of interference across a number of areas of Australian political and economic debate. What stands out in this method of noisy declaration is the tactic of sidelining legitimate public debate. Such interference supposedly impairs the credibility of the argument, given that the argument is also being advanced by sinister external forces. Blame Johnny Foreigner, and you have scored a few points in your favour. (more…)
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The United States has put Australia back in its place … again
After a rather extraordinary month of steadily escalating defence PR and conspiracy opportunities, Australia was sat on its backside over the weekend and reminded to know its subservient place. (more…)
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AUKUS, Australia and the drive to war
My fear is not that AUKUS SSNs, if they arrive, will be late, ineffective, and obsolete. My fear is that they will arrive and will be effective and even lethal. Because, if that is the case, they will play a part in the drive to a potentially devastating war with China that would be a disaster for the entire world. (more…)
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Why was Wang Yi brought back as China’s foreign minister after Qin Gang’s abrupt exit?
The Chinese Communist Party has a history of turning to senior figures to steady the ship in emergencies and Wang’s return may be in line with this precedent. Beijing will need someone to prepare the ground for some major diplomatic setpieces including a possible trip to the US by President Xi Jinping. (more…)
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China replaces Qin Gang with Wang Yi, but big political questions linger after foreign minister change-up
Qin’s replacement has been named, ending weeks of speculation, but it’s still not clear what prompted the former foreign minister’s removal. Wang’s appointment makes him the most powerful person to hold the position in decades. (more…)
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China’s anti-Mario Draghi moment surprises markets
China is eschewing the former European Central Bank chief’s pledge to ‘do whatever it takes’ to stabilise via monetary easing. (more…)
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How do Chinese Australians view Australia’s foreign policy?
Since the Lowy Institute’s first Being Chinese in Australia: Public Opinion in Chinese Communities survey was published in 2021, Australia’s relations with China have undergone significant upheaval. The COVID-19 pandemic, the rupture in Australia–China relations, the election of a Labor government and the turbulence in both countries accompanying their re-openings after their COVID-19 lockdowns has placed Chinese Australian communities in the public spotlight. (more…)
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$1 trillion to replace the Taliban with the Taliban
The United States left Afghanistan in a state of dangerous and monumental disorder in 2021. Soon after, it made matters still worse by confiscating the meagre foreign exchange reserves of one of the world’s most deprived countries — shamelessly claiming that it was advancing certain human rights while doing so. (more…)
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OHCHR ‘politicised’ to make anti-China claims on Xinjiang: new report
It isn’t something we expect from an august body that forms part of the United Nations but, according to CO-WEST-PRO Consultancy’s recently released fourth paper, the report issued by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on alleged atrocities in Xinjiang is “of substandard quality and is not a reliable source for popular claims made in the West about the Xinjiang situation”. (more…)
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The art of vassalisation: the new middle kingdom of the United States
An EU paper explains how traditional Western allies on the continent are being turned into vassal states of the US as part of Washington’s strategy to contain the rise of China. (more…)
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Yellen’s Beijing visit: US-China economic reality is starting to bite
On China, Biden is faced with both a political problem, represented by his secretary of state, and an economic reality, represented by the Treasury secretary. Yellen’s visit suggests economics may be starting to play a larger role in the bilateral relationship, but the US will need to demonstrate consistent sincerity to see improvement in ties. (more…)
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Will fast-growing India overtake decelerating China?
India has an economy that is growing faster than China’s – six per cent versus four per cent – and it has a population that is expanding while that of its Asian neighbour is shrinking. (more…)
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A long war against China?
The recent visit to China by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken seemed promising, until we learned what he really had in mind: a long war with no finish line. (more…)
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China, at the centre of the multipolar world
Despite the great interest in and importance of US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China, there have been far more interesting things happening here for China watchers. They illustrate the continuing shift in geopolitical gravity towards China as the centre of the multipolar world. (more…)
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The discourse of dominance
I was rather amused, or to use the American expression “tickled pink”, when I read the article titled “Coexistance: the only realist path to peace” by Stephen M. Walt in Pearls & Irritations. The article’s claim to the “realist path” to peace would make sense only to those who have dominated others for so long (albeit only a blip in the history of the people whom the author is giving a talking to) that they have forgotten the language and discourse of equality. (more…)
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Behind the Chinese successful drive to become the largest vehicle exporter
Just released vehicle export figures for the first five months of 2023 indicated that China would be the world’s largest vehicle exporter in 2023. (more…)
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Why is America so reluctant to acknowledge China’s economic power?
The statistical evidence clearly shows that China is the world’s number one economy. Unfortunately, the US and many commentators are unwilling to acknowledge that reality, but the future stability of the region depends on acceptance that we are living in a multipolar world. (more…)
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Paul Keating, Confucius and the CCP – understanding China
Misunderstanding China has a long and distinguished history. Much of that misunderstanding has been generated by western media going right back to the Qing dynasty. (more…)