According to a leaked Treasury document, which the Remainers claim was fiddled, the UK would be worse off in any alternative trading arrangement to the present – varying from two to eight percent of GDP over the next 15 years; and that none of the possible third country alternatives, including with the US and Australia, taken cumulatively, could be expected to make up for those reductions. What outcome might ameliorate these losses the most?
Category: Politics
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GARRY WOODARD. The role of strategic ambiguity in Australia’s China Policy
For half a century, strategic ambiguity about the application of ANZUS to Taiwan served Australia well. Is it time to apply this policy more broadly? (more…)
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RICHARD BROINOWSKI- Trump and Turnbull – Shared Values?
Fantasy and emotion were in free play at the White House on Friday 23 February 2018 when President Trump received Prime Minister Turnbull. Trump was well scripted, even getting Turnbull’s name right. He added that Australia was the United States’ closest friend, a claim successive US presidents have made, with variations, about many other countries when their leaders visit the White House. Turnbull gave a predictably gushing response, long on confections about shared values and mateship but short on historical accuracy – a good example of Canberra’s bipartisan delusions about the bilateral relationship. (more…)
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GOOD READING AND LISTENING FOR THE WEEKEND …
On Phillip Adams’ Late Night Live Tony Moore of the National Centre for Australian Studies at Monash explains the Centre’s “recovering the Australian working class” project. In arguing for a strong social wage he points out how means-tested benefits have contributed to “downward envy”. Australia’s working class is not necessarily poor, but it is disadvantaged in areas such as health and education.
Transparency International has released its Corruption Perception Index 2017. New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland and the Nordic countries retain their lead rankings. Australia, which held 8th place behind these countries in 2012, has slipped to 13th place. Even the United Kingdom now ranks ahead of Australia.
On Australia’s stagnating real wages Ross Gittins writes that “the union movement has done too little to counter the alarmists telling their members they’ve lost the power to ask for more”. Stagnating wages may be stoking workers’ disaffection with the Turnbull Government, to the Benefit of the Labor Party, but they’re doing nothing for people’s pay packets or the Australian economy.
Reports of journalism’s imminent demise are exaggerated, but politicians aren’t helping – the Guardian.
The IMF doesn’t share the Government’s heroic growth predictions – Greg Jericho in the Guardian..
Donald Trump is the worst of the worst – Michael Tomansky in New York Review of Books.
The real reason Americans don’t care about the cost of wars – The Nation.
Whatever Trump Is Hiding Is Hurting All of Us Now. He either believes Putin’s denials, or more likely, is afraid of what the Russians have on him – Thomas Friedman.
Turnbull’s US visit should prompt us to rethink our place in the world – The Guardian.
On Saturday Extra this 24th February, Geraldine Doogue brings you the February edition of A Foreign Affair. It was recorded at the ANU on Wednesday evening in front of an audience. Menna Rawlings, the British High Commissioner, Michael Wesley, Dean of the College of Asia and the Pacific at the ANU and Bob Carr, former ALP Senator and Foreign Affairs minister are the guests. Former ALP minister Craig Emerson also joins Geraldine to discuss his life in politics. Rodger Shanahan, research fellow for the West Asia program at the Lowy Institute provides a where are we up to in the Middle East as the situation in Syria becomes worse and Andrew Rosser, professor of Southeast Asian Studies from Melbourne University discusses why the education system in Indonesia is being held back and what the implications are for Australian education providers. http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/saturdayextra/
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JOHN MENADUE. When will we wake up to the risks as well as the benefits of the US alliance (A REPOST)
We are a nation in denial that we are ‘joined at the hip’ to a dangerous ally. Apart from brief isolationist periods, the US has been almost perpetually at war; wars that we have often foolishly been drawn into. The US has subverted and overthrown numerous governments over two centuries. It has a military and business complex, almost a ‘hidden state’, that depends on war for influence and enrichment. It believes in its ‘manifest destiny’ which brings with it an assumed moral superiority which it denies to others. As the US goes into relative economic decline, it will be asking allies such as Australia for more help and support. We are running great risks in committing so much of our future to the US. We must build our security in our own region and not depend so exclusively on a foreign protector. (more…)
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PAUL FRIJTERS. Our Countries Need Us
Humanity is at a high point. What our ancestors dreamed of is slowly becoming a reality: a world without hunger in which the vast majority of mankind live peaceful and long lives. We are not there yet, but in Europe, East Asia, Latin America, and even in Africa (our cradle), mankind is emerging from dark times. People live longer, healthier, happier, and more educated lives. Paid for and organised by countries, helped by international flows of people and information.
And yet, our countries are under threat from a disconnect between the elites and the population of individual countries.
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JOAN STAPLES. Bill weak on stopping foreign donations, but strong on silencing NGOs.
The current Bill before parliament to reform electoral donations is the most comprehensive attempt I have seen at silencing public advocacy in 30 years. It does not succeed in its supposed aim to restrict foreign donations – an aim that is supported by NGOs. Instead, it is a convoluted, excruciatingly complicated maze that will undoubtedly silence a wide range of charities, NGOs and public interest institutions. (more…)
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ELIZABETH EVATT. Democracy under challenge.
In their recent book, How Democracies Die, discussed this week on Late Night Live, Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, outlined how democracies can be undermined and ultimately destroyed without the violent coup of Pinochet, but by abuse of the system itself. They address the problems of the United States. But we have to be on guard because some of the symptoms are starting to infect our own democracy in Australia. (more…)
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Trump and Turnbull must recognise that China is not going away
Foreshadowed warnings by American spokesmen to the Prime Minister and his party during their coming visit to the United States about the rise of China reflect a belated realisation on America’s part that the China challenge is for real, but do not reflect the position of Australia, which has important links to both competing powers. (more…)
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Relax, there’s no need to follow Trump on company tax – yet
We were mugs to believe what we were told in the election about property prices. The Prime Minister said if negative gearing went and capital gains were better taxed, prices would be “smashed”. His Treasurer said it would “take a sledgehammer” to prices. (more…)
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Turnbull and Trump: Meeting of Mates
It is not clear what this weeks US/Australia summit meeting will achieve. Both participants might welcome its optics, but each have other political needs. The critical issue for Australia is likely to be what exactly will Trump ask of Turnbull and will he get it. It is depressingly unlikely that Turnbull will address any of the areas in which Trump’s policies have been destabilising, destructive and widely rejected. (more…)
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The Liberals and the Nationals – Malcolm Turnbull and Barnaby Joyce
Only weak and compromised Liberal Party leadership would put up with the behaviour of Barnaby Joyce and the Nationals who have influence way out of proportion to their numbers and on policy issues, are a blank page or even worse. As Ian McAuley said yesterday Barnaby Joyce is an albatross around Malcolm Turnbull’s neck. It is getting worse every day. (more…)
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Whitlam had it easier on China policy
When Labor statesman Gough Whitlam opened relations with China it was a Maoist tyranny, more like today’s North Korea than today’s China. It was sunk in poverty. Its people could not travel overseas. They couldn’t move from village to village without party permission. It was illegal to own a small business. And China ran revolutionary movements in Southeast Asia. (more…)
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GREGORY MCCARTHY. Australia’s iron(ic) curtain hurting China ties
2017 was earmarked to celebrate 45 years of Australian–Chinese diplomatic relations. Instead, Australia alleged that China interfered in its national affairs and the China Daily reported that an on-line poll had voted Australia as the ‘least friendly nation to China in 2017’. Likewise, a Global Times editorial accused Australia of McCarthyism and said that Australia had gone insane regarding the issue of China. (more…)
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Class power Australia
If you are someone with power and privilege in a state capitalist society such as Australia, it is vital to maintain class consciousness for yourself, while eliminating it in others. It is particularly important that the broader community does not see themselves as a group exploited by an inequitable economic system. Class solidarity and a concern for others must be driven from their minds. (more…)
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Trickle down economics and the Emma Alberici article.
The ABC says that their decision to withdraw Emma Alberici’s article was because it represented an opinion for which there is allegedly no evidence. In fact there is plenty of evidence that increasing corporate profits will not lead to any increase in investment or employment and wages if aggregate demand continues to remain weak. Furthermore this evidence has been endorsed by the IMF, the OECD and others. Can the ABC cite anyone or provide evidence to the contrary, other than the ramblings of Scott Morrison and the Business Council?
The following is a repost of Michael Keating’s article of 18 January, Trickle-Down Economics and a Company Tax Cut. (more…)
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MICHAEL PEMBROKE. North Korea: Why negotiations can’t wait for denuclearisation
Few people know the true story of the Korean War; few understand the reasons for North Korean bitterness toward the United States; most are unaware of the extent to which Washington shares responsibility for the creation and perpetuation of the mutual hostility that has persisted for almost 70 years. (more…)
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MICHAEL MULLINS. Joyce’s schooling is the real scandal
It is unhelpful to judge Barnaby in the way the prime minister Malcolm Turnbull did on Thursday. It’s better to focus on a critique of the culture. His leadership of the Nationals may be no longer tenable, but the best thing our political class can do for the long term is to make laws that foster respect for women. (more…)
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Political pregnancies and Opposition renewal in New Zealand
Political pregnancies are the subject of public debate on both sides of the Tasman. In Australia, the Deputy Prime Minister faces a career crisis over his indiscretions. In New Zealand, the Prime Minister is due to give birth in June. (more…)
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Has the ABC buckled to PM Malcolm Turnbull by removing critical ‘analysis’ of the claimed benefits of corporate tax cuts?
The ABC’s chief economics correspondent Emma Alberici stands by her ‘analysis’. Significantly the ABC, through Ms Alberici’s editorial superiors Gaven Morris, the director of ABC News, and Alan Sunderland, director of editorial policies, do not.In a promoted article posted on February 14 after the broadcast of an ABC News item reporting that many Australian companies did not pay any tax, Ms Alberici intro-ed her analysis with this sentence: “There is no compelling evidence that giving the country’s biggest companies a tax cut sees that money passed on to workers in the form of higher wages.” (more…)
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LINDA JAKOBSON ET AL. China and Australia Relations-Submission to the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security
I am grateful to the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS) for this opportunity to comment on the Bill. Please note that this submission is a duplicate of my submission to the PJCIS regarding the Foreign Influence Transparency Scheme Bill 2017. (more…)
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NICK SEDDON. Democracy in danger. Or, how to get GetUp.
Proposed amendments to the Electoral Act if enacted will profoundly constrain or shut down political advocacy that is the lifeblood of a healthy democracy. (more…)
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The American Empire, China, the Region and Australia
As the American Empire weakens we see a tendency to look to China and seek security in a nebulous concept of “the region.” We are not facing up to the defence of our continent by Australians for Australians. (more…)
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GOOD READING AND LISTENING FOR THE WEEKEND …
Writing in the Canberra Times John Warhurst examines the wealth of the Catholic Church, a topic that has come to prominence in terms of its capacity to provide monetary compensation to victims of sexual abuse.
Phillip Adams interviews Professor Shae McCrystal of the Law Faculty at the University of Sydney, on Australia’s industrial relations system. McCrystal explains developments leading up to present arrangements and problems with the Fair Work Act. She calls for restoration of aspects of the twentieth century arbitration system to compensate for workers’ loss of bargaining powers.
“The Australian Government should consider setting up, or at least subsidise, a major domestic and exporting cigarette industry in Australia, even if the subsidies go to foreign companies or that the domestic industry is run by foreign companies” writes Crispin Hull in the Canberra Times. Before you send him an angry E-mail, have a look at his well-reasoned argument.
Private health insurance is back in the news, with articles by Fairfax journalists Esther Han and Ross Gittins. Esther Han explains why people are giving up private insurance, while Ross Gittins says private insurance is a “con job”: private health insurance is “such bad value that, when John Howard sought to prop up the private system, he had to make it subject to a tax rebate”.
Barnaby Joyce and the changing landscape of the news media – Tim Dunlop
Barnaby Joyce has leapt to international prominence – New York Times.
Labor’s energy spending spree has electrified the South Australian election – the Guardian
Daniel Ellsberg worries about nuclear war – New York Review of Books
On Saturday Extra the 17th February, Andrew West fills in for Geraldine Doogue. Items include: cleaning up the cleaning business, an accreditation scheme for companies doing the right thing by their employees with UTS associate professor Sarah Kaine; what will be the geopolitical hotspots for the Trump government in 2018 with the University of Melbourne’s Timothy Lynch and University of Sydney’s Brendon O’Connor; how can the Centre Left combat rising populism, anti-immigration parties with Flinders University’s Rob Manwaring; journalist Anneliese Rohrer discusses the conservative/far right coalition ruling her country Austria and US academic Marie Griffith on why sex has fractured US politics. That’s Saturday Extra www.abc.net.au/rn/saturdayextra
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Toxic legacy of US assault on Fallujah ‘worse than Hiroshima’
[Reprint of an article in the UK Independent dated 23 July 2010]
Dramatic increases in infant mortality, cancer and leukaemia in the Iraqi city of Fallujah, which was bombarded by US Marines in 2004, exceed those reported by survivors of the atomic bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, according to a new study.In 2004 General Jim Molan was in charge of the Coalition forces attacking Fallujah (more…)
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Admiral Harris : Ambassador or Viceroy?
The appointment of Admiral Harris as Ambassador to Australia raises serious concerns about the role he will play in the development of Australian strategic policy as we seek to maintain the sort of relationship with China and the US outlined in the White Paper. (more…)
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Many are thinking: we can surely do better as a nation
Across the country there is much amusement, and a good deal of bewilderment. People are asking: how can our subservience to Washington’s bidding hit such an all-time low? How can a government think it can shape Australia’s future security and prosperity by mouthing one inanity after another? (more…)
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Deeply Denying the American Reality. Part 2: Australia’s avoidance means complicity.
In any other context but the alliance, the facts attending the US global strategy at both the conventional and nuclear levels would be seen by Australian strategic analysts and policy-makers for what they are – profoundly threatening developments and habits of mind which threaten international peace and security and the ecology of the planet. But this realisation, apparently, is beyond them. And the silence indicates not only complicity but a deep malaise. (more…)
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Issues of Integrity, Not Sex
The story of a middle-aged husband and father talking up the “failure” of his marriage to justify his relationship with a much younger and previously childless woman is too clichéd to have much drama. The effect of this on the abandoned wife and, in this case, four daughters, would of course make for a story of genuine poignancy. We may even wonder what caused the younger woman to assume a future with a man who is not only married but an avowed and vocal upholder of traditional family values, whatever they are. (Loyalty, honesty, transparency and kindness could be a start.) (more…)
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Deeply Denying the American Reality. Part 1: Faces Australia Chooses Not to Recognise
The alliance with the United States is not now what it was thought to be at the beginning because the US itself is not now what it was thought to be. The problem was that, even then, it wasn’t what Australian leaders thought it was. The rose-coloured view remains however: no evidence in official Australian thinking and acting that the US is almost self-evidently a dangerous actor. The indicators proliferate nevertheless; they suggest alliance partners exercise caution, prudence, continuous critical scrutiny and the avoidance of all measures presaging war. (more…)