The 19 August Fairfax-IPSOS poll showed the Coalition with 33 per cent of the primary vote and Labor with 35 per cent. John Menadue added the two figures and deduced that 32 per cent would not have voted for any of the major Parties. The problem for pollsters after the drama of Tuesday morning in Canberra will be knowing what question to ask.
The question that occurs to most of us is why are the Liberals so keen to hand over government to Labor? Just a week ago Malcolm and his colleagues were fixated on killing Bill. Now they line up to kill Malcolm, whose best bet might be to hand over the question to the voters and call an election.
It was surprising, even shocking to learn that Peter Dutton has 35 votes in the Party room. Does he have 35 votes in the country? Are the internal conflicts of the federal Liberal Party a reflection of matching conflicts in the country at large? Only one way to find out.
This is about the Liberal Party and there have been two interesting comments in recent days from experienced observers. Catherine McGregor on Monday defined the Liberal dilemma today as “trying to integrate the infiltration of the Party’s noisiest media barrackers and activists in so-called ‘think tanks’ with the pernicious, pervasive repercussions of the Trump presidency, with the record of the Howard years.”
Catherine is an old friend and admirer of Tony Abbot and she makes a generalisation looking back to Menzies and Howard. She has a point. “Coalition harmony depends on a conservative leader accommodating the moderates.” Turnbull is a Coalition moderate accommodating the conservatives.
John Stapleton in Pearls and Irritations on 16 August raised the possibility for Peter Dutton that it is indeed possible to disprove the old saying and turn a sow’s ear into a silver purse. John informed us that a polished Liberal strategist has gone to work on Peter Dutton’s image. The same political fixer was a key figure in transforming the unprepossessing John Howard into a popular figure.
John’s report reminded me of the entrepreneurial Milo Minderbinder in Joseph Heller’s novel “Catch 22.” Milo cornered the world’s cotton crop at such a bargain price that he bought the lot then had trouble selling it. He solved the problem by coating cotton balls in chocolate. People bought them by the million.
Are we really that stupid? John Howard was Prime Minister for 11 years, so perhaps Peter Dutton is in with a show. Or is this just a prelude to a Tony Abbot challenge?
Jerry Roberts is a student of politics now wondering if he should study psychology instead.
Jerry Roberts, born and raised in Mid-West USA, trained as a newspaper reporter in Perth and has covered politics, manufacturing, and Aboriginal Affairs. He has spent the second half of his life in outback Australia.
Comments
6 responses to “JERRY ROBERTS. Will Turnbull call a snap election and let the people decide?”
Andy, it was Cicero who criticised Caesar’s bread and circuses. Cicero was a parliamentarian. I think Turnbull will see this one out. Simon — should be a good election for independents. How about putting your hat in the ring?
…at which point Jerry will eat it? (Reply to Andy Sideward by Jerry Roberts refers):
Party and Faction were ever going to destroy the Westminster ‘system’ – we’ve know this since the regicide. Australia’s Coalition just got us to the point faster than even those/we who love Liberty imagined.
Dis-spiriting is the word Malcolm Turnbull used. I get-up to face the day and hear that Tony Abbott is to be offered some token role amongst Indigenes (Treaty-work?) which is a pretty clear indication of the importance which this Government attaches to that field of endeavour. It’s beyond satire. But it feels, also, beyond redemption.
” The problem for pollsters after the drama of Tuesday morning in Canberra will be knowing what question to ask.”
More likely the problem will be knowing which answers to believe.
The feedback I am getting after the last round of electoral madness here in Braddon is that the pollsters would need to be extremely wary of basing anything on the responses to polling. People are totally sick of endless questions about their voting intention and have taken to spoofing their answers. Most report feeling bloody good about doing it, especially when they have been disturbed at dinner time.
Perhaps the aspiring representatives and their party membership need to go back to canvasing the electorate. Or does the lack of a membership preclude that option?
Jerry, I would argue that Howard was polished up, by the MSM’s mythologising work, into a ‘popular figure’ AFTER he won the 1996 election, which was itself mostly due to Keating’s arrogance following his win over Hewson. His survival for 11 years was mostly because of good luck, which enabled him to buy voters with middle class welfare, and anti-asylum seeker dog-whistling.
Jerry, am I deluded? I thought that this IS a Tony Abbott challenge.
Wonder if the renewed Taliban assault in Afghanistan ( which hasnt rated a mention in our media) has got the right wingers all exercised. The panem et circenses continues unabated
https://orientalreview.org/2018/08/21/afghanistan-the-war-that-shames-america/