Renewable electricity is taking over. But this does not mean the end of global warming. We may need a shock to take the climate problem seriously and strive for negative greenhouse gas emissions.
It’s hard to see a big global turning point when you are in the midst of it, but we are in one now. I am not referring to the crumbling of the great rock that was the USA and a re-ordering of global affairs, although this does seem to be happening. I refer to energy.
According to British environmental think-tank Ember, increased capacity for solar and wind power provided all the world’s additional need for electricity in 2025. By Ember’s analysis, in the last calendar year, worldwide electricity demand increased by 849 terawatt-hours. Of this, the increase in solar power accounted for 636 tWh, additional wind power 205 tWh and additional other low-carbon power (such as hydro, biopower and geothermal) 11 tWh. The balancing items are an increase in nuclear power of 35 tWh and a decline of 38 tWh in fossil-fuel power.
Here in Australia, in the last quarter of 2025, solar, wind and a little hydro accounted for more than half of the power in the National Electricity Market for the first time.
The battle between renewables and power generated from coal and gas is all over, bar the shouting. Renewables have won. In the coming decade or two, they will replace almost all Australia’s fossil power, with a little perhaps remaining for peak supply and in some small and remote places. At the same time, demand for electricity will grow rapidly as it replaces fossil energy in transport, heating, cooling and many industrial uses.
But shouting there is. The noise made by pro-fossil lobbies, right-wing media and politicians has never been louder. Moreover, as a recent Senate inquiry found, much of the pro-fossil and anti-renewable propaganda is false. This is one reason why it is hard to see that we are passing a turning point.
Some Opposition politicians still hanker for nuclear power in Australia (remember the last election, when they said they would build seven nuclear stations?). This is pure pie in the sky. Spend five minutes looking up the Hinkley Point C station in the UK. It is years behind schedule and vastly over budget, despite being built by one of the world’s most experienced nuclear operators, Electricité de France.
True, China is still building nuclear. The one thing to know about China is that it is very big. They can afford to hedge their bets. About three per cent of the generating capacity they are adding each year is nuclear. They probably have the lowest-cost nuclear power in the world. If a nuclear breakthrough comes about, they will be positioned once again to lead the world. China is installing solar and wind power at a vastly greater rate, in both cases accounting for more than the rest of the world put together.
Solar power, wind power, batteries and combinations of the three have become radically cheaper over the last twenty years or so. This locks in the energy revolution for the future.
The Paris Agreement has been a powerful influence behind this. Many governments, including our own, have adopted policies to promote renewables as part of their Nationally Determined Contributions under the agreement. As the cumulative installed volumes of solar panels, wind turbines and batteries have doubled and doubled again, manufacturers have exploited the learning effect and driven costs down. This will continue into the future as far as one can see.
According to the World Bank and OECD, in the 15 years between 2009 and 2024, the ‘levelised’ cost of solar power (which incorporates capital, operating costs and cleanup after a plant has closed, averaged over its producing life using discounted cash flow) fell by
88 per cent and that of onshore wind power by 74 per cent. Battery costs have fallen even more steeply over a shorter period. Connor Teskey, CEO of Brookfield Renewables, a big investor, says battery costs have fallen by 65-70 percent in just two years. The CSIRO’s annual GenCost reports have been saying for years that solar and wind are the most economical means of generating electricity in Australia.
Australia is lucky once again in that it is well endowed with potential for solar and wind power. We have a great opportunity to develop industries based on low-cost ‘green’ energy. Indeed, most of the best opportunities for the ‘Future Made in Australia’ the government talks about are of this type. They include green aluminium, copper, zinc, silicon, ammonia and eventually steel (or perhaps semi-processed iron). Big data centres may also flock to low-cost electricity and water (for cooling).
This is an opportunity, but not a unique one. Other places have good renewable energy resources and may be able to build plants more cheaply than we can. Think of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, Morocco and Spain, western India or southwestern USA. We will have to compete for the new industries. We will need them, because our big exports of thermal coal and liquefied natural gas are bound to decline.
Does the success of renewable electricity mean we can stop worrying about climate change? Sadly, no, by no means. Only about one-fifth of the energy the world consumes is in the form of electricity (21 per cent in 2024, up from 18 per cent in 2010).
The greater part of the growing greenhouse gas emissions humans cause comes from land clearing or from fossil fuels burnt in transportation, agriculture, construction, heating and cooling and industrial processes of all kinds. The latest (9 May 2026) annual average reading of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa in Hawaii (where it has been measured continuously since 1958) is 427.35 parts per million, more than 50 per cent higher than the 280 ppm before the industrial era. Carbon dioxide accounts for around two-thirds of global warming. Methane is powerful as well. Other gases like nitrous oxide contribute.
The world continues to warm, with most of the heat absorbed by the oceans. The consequences are now well known: droughts, fires, floods, more powerful tropical storms, slowly rising sea levels, coastal erosion. In the longer term, scientists say we could see dire effects like the halting of great ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which gives northern Europe its temperate climate.
We have almost breached the ideal maximum warming of 1.5 degrees set in the Paris agreement. (The global average temperature in 2024 exceeded the 1.5 degrees ceiling, but the goal was expressed as an average over five years). Nature reports that 76 per cent of the emissions ‘budget’ calculated in 2011 for the world to stay below 1.5 degrees of warming has now been used up.
Net zero only applies to human-caused emissions. When (and if) the whole world reaches net zero, the human contribution to climate change will have levelled off, not fallen. On the way to this point, higher global temperatures caused by humans will have triggered natural emissions such as release of carbon dioxide from permafrost. Warming will not stop until we somehow achieve substantial negative net emissions. Yet, politicians of the right in Australia, not only in One Nation, have been casually dumping the net zero emissions target. They apparently don’t care about the terrible consequences for the world and their voters.
Now, there are signs that a new, very strong, El Niño may be developing. This is the huge weather pattern in which rain increases in eastern Pacific countries and is lower than normal on our side of the ocean. For Australia, this could mean a dry summer and even more fires than usual. In addition, as Julian Cribb pointed out in Pearls and Irritations, a side effect of Trump’s war with Iran is a global shortage of fertiliser.
These two factors together may lead to poor crop seasons and widespread shortages of grain. Among vulnerable populations in Africa and South Asia, there could be serious famine. Perhaps a really bad year is what we need for people to take climate change seriously.
Ralph Evans AO is author of “Toast: Climate change is doing enormous harm. Why do many Australians deny it? Can we avoid the worst effects?”. He is a former head of Austrade and co-founded the Australian arm of the Boston Consulting Group.