Projections on Australia’s future are bleak if it maintains it’s hostility to China and cloying dependence on America, particularly when coupled with a corrupt and incompetent LNP government.
Tell me, where do you think Australia will be in one, five and twenty years time?
Let me speculate. One year from now Covid19 will still be with us and nothing will have been resolved with China. Further trade restrictions will be in place and President Biden will have opened a dialogue with China to advance US economic interests. We will not be coat tailing on those discussions. The US will still be confronting China in the South China Sea but without harm to its moderately improved relationship.
The US will request that Australia overfly and conduct naval patrols and exercises in the South China Sea, which we will do, eliciting praise from the US and further perplexing and angering the Chinese who in addition to restricting the import of iron ore will limit tourist and student arrivals.
The Australian economy will be shagged. With an election approaching Morrison will take a very pragmatic and irresponsible decision and borrow more money. A lot more money. Initially scared of debt the LNP will have come to see the political and electoral advantage of doing so. They will take the view that short term LNP gain will be long term Labor pain.
Which is all very well except that Albanese is unelectable. Nice as he may be, he does not have the leadership skills or strength of character to handle the crises Australia is now facing and which will only intensify over the next year. Murdoch will back increased debt, so will the US.
Australia doesn’t have a clue where it is going and has not for many years, probably a hundred. Tucked under the umbrella first of Britain and then America we did not have to think. We had no need for independent foreign or defence policies. When I was in the Department of Foreign Affairs, we would not move on making a major decision without the approval of Washington and London.
Secure under this imaginary umbrella Australians were free to acquire wealth, wreck the environment, indulge in sport and feed their insatiable hedonism, ‘Where the bloody hell are you.’
If Australia had some idea of self, outside of self indulgence, Abbott and Morrison would not have been Prime Ministers and Albanese would not be leading Labor. Had the unions not been emasculated by Hawke and Keating they would not have supported Albanese.
Australia will not find sufficient new markets to replace Chinese imports, certainly not from the UK and Europe. Faced with a deteriorating economy and increased debt the dollar will fall. This under normal circumstances would aid exports, except that Tehan will not turn things around. He neither has the wit nor wisdom to negotiate, he is a dud.
Australia’s credit rating will be marked down, adding to the cost of borrowing and the economic downward spiral. Morrison will win the election and the Labor Party will go into an even bigger funk because Albanese will resign with no obvious successor. Labor, bereft of leadership, will assume long term opposition, much as the failed opposition in white South Africa, which Australia will increasingly come to resemble. What small policy changes occur will be as a result of external pressure.
Morrison’s spin and jargon will increasingly be detested but accepted in the absence of an opposition and functioning Main Stream Media(MSM). He will try and revive Australian exceptionalism, sporting prowess and beaches but it will not wash overseas. The EU, Japan, China and other nations will slap a tax on our goods in the absence of functioning and effective emissions control and again, as with Apartheid South Africa, Morrison will attempt to spin his way out of it. But by then we will be on the nose, a pariah state.
At this point Australia should reinvent itself, it should break free from the cloying, constricting, confining, controlling and humiliating embrace of the United States and negotiate our place in Asia. But we won’t. We don’t have the courage. Australians are good on physical courage. Physical courage impresses coaches, other teams, the media, observers and military opponents. Moral courage is something Australians, by and large, do not understand and place little store in. It is obtuse, invisible and for the Right it demonstrates a weakness of character.
Australia does not have the moral courage to break free of the declining and decomposing US. We have determined that we will go down with the ship. In the absence of courage and imagination we have decided that we will be martyrs to the declining and decaying American dream of gun ownership and the desire to ‘go it alone’. The all American, ‘stuff you – who needs consensus’. Just as an aside, American diplomacy has always been a weak tool, relying on and standing just behind American military might. Yes, ‘we are happy to negotiate but if you don’t comply, we will blow your brains out.’ Just look at the Paris peace talks between Viet Nam and the US. Kissinger.
The US did not come to the assistance of Australia or the East Timorese at the time of bloody independence. They said they gave us information but we had our own better sources through Australian intercepts. John Howard was dragged, in his own inimitable way, kicking and screaming into East Timor. It was public opinion that pushed him. He wanted American involvement, they told him to do it himself. They sent a couple of ships off shore but they did not honour ANZUS. And this after all we had done! The Americans made a point which we have failed to notice.
Having got away with corrupt practice the LNP will continue to bend and break the rules to keep themselves in power and in pocket. They will continue to pay Indonesian and Sri Lankan military, police and officials to stop refugees in boats, a practice begun under Howard. The white dominated LNP feel Australia is theirs they take offence at refugees seeking solace and protection. They are affronted by ‘outsiders’ taking a piece of the action. They demand forelock tugging, unless new arrivals are very rich and they can get a bit of the action.
Five years on and Morrison’s borrowing will only have benefited the top end of town. Unemployment will have increased; poverty will be visible and social unrest will be making the north shore and eastern suburbs uneasy. Many will have copied Johannesburg and surrounded their houses with razor wire and electric fences. Security companies will be in demand.
Dutton will declare demonstrators ‘enemies of the state’ and deploy terrorism laws to round them up for periods of detention without trial. They will spend time on Christmas Island and other former refugee detention centres being re-educated.
Leadership will not have improved, if anything it will be worse, as the LNP remains cowering under US command. China will have asserted it’s influence in the region, which will be prospering, and internationally, as American influence declines.
The inevitable conflict between the US and China will occur toward the end of this period with Australian losses of aircraft, ships and troops who were deployed to take several islands in the South China Sea but repulsed. America will get a very bloody nose. It will consider using nuclear weapons but will be restrained by threats from Russia, France and Germany. America will slink away, concluding a face saving ‘peace treaty’ that concedes China’s control of the South China Sea.
Anywhere between then and twenty years down the track, Australia, by then a virtual one-party state, with draconian police powers in play, will be the visibly poverty stricken poor white neighbours of Asia. China will offer loans and grants in exchange for ownership and equity. These will be accepted. Political life and the economy will be controlled by China through a thoroughly corrupt LNP puppet government, very much reflecting the government of Sri Lanka.
China will address the issue of racism through the state-owned newspaper, The Australian. They will explain it is far more entrenched and subtle than calling a person of Asian appearance a chink. It is middle class mothers asking their sons if they marry that Asian or African girl do they really want their children to look different. They will explain the pain of a sugar coated racial slur and the deep seated and insidious nature of white supremacy.
All this might have been avoided if Australia had voluntarily moved from under the wings of the eagle and engaged in an open and honest way with China. But for that would require intelligence and courage which we have noted is sadly lacking.
To strike a more optimistic note. The future of Australia is in the hands of the people, not the politicians we have become used to. We must change the nature of our political discourse and leadership, we must reinvent ourselves.
If you believe this projection far fetched or too harsh, please say what you think the next twenty years holds for Australia.
Bruce Haigh is a political commentator and retired diplomat. He is also a former Jackaroo, Roughneck, Taxi driver, Tank gunner and farmer. His honours thesis was on Australian political cartoons 1960-69. In Afghanistan he took photographs of Russian military equipment. He was portrayed in the film ‘Cry Freedom’ and was a friend of Steve Biko. He was a friend and confidant of Benazir Bhutto. He served on the Refugee Review Tribunal.
Bruce Douglas Haigh is an Australian political commentator and former diplomat.
Comments
55 responses to “Australia, Sovereignty: the long and short of it”
Too depressed after reading that to comment.
I observe that Senator General Molan has been widely reported over the past week as predicting armed conflict with China within the next ten years. Which, perhaps, leads him to the same rather fundamental question as the one Bruce implies: what can we do to repair our China relationship or (as perhaps Jim Molan might prefer to put it) how might we deal with military challenges before our new submarines, ships, planes and missiles are delivered? Who is for appeasement, anyone?
I’ve just been reading reports of Molan’s sensationalist comments. He refers to China being “primed” for war and having been for a some time, and notes that the US is also “primed” for war. What does he actually mean by “primed”? Ready to attack? Ready to respond if attacked? Exercising vigilance on the watchtowers? It’s not really clear but there is a big difference. And what’s his underlying evidence or reasoning? Let’s hope Mr Molan doesn’t make high office because no one will know what he’s talking about and everyone who hears what he has to say will panic.
It would be rare that anyone on this site might quote Mark Latham positively but I recall him once saying that he had never met anyone from the ADF who wasn’t a “meathead”.
Molan is a bully. A man of limited intellect. He and Morrison share these characteristics plus both are know it all smart arses. Molan believes what he says about China which is a worry but also looking for approval and relevence. Diplomacy is not appeasment.
Appeasment suffers lack of policy and self respect.
I agree that we must find diplomatic solutions. It would be good to see more constructive discussion of the issues and how they might be resolved. If Molan and his ilk really believe that war with China is inevitable then they also must be aware that Australia is simply not equipped to win such a war. So, aren’t they arguing for appeasement? It is inevitable that countries will have their disagreements. Megaphone diplomacy of the Australian kind – amplified by our news media – is not going to resolve these. Military posturing by us will have no more relevance when all that material eventually arrives than it does within Senator Molan’s ten-year time frame and he of all people should know that. We need to cultivate friendships on the other side of our maritime fence and rely less on military alliances with rich and powerful countries on the other side of our globe. That calls for a different kind of diplomacy than our warrior leaders appear to understand.
I agree Ian
Perhaps I am clutching at straws here but the States are going their own way on the environment and energy. There is a lot of intellect and diversity in Sydney and Melbourne and economic interests in Perth and Adelaide and Brisbane. Perhaps they will need to go their own way on foreign policy despite the latest bit of paper coming out of Canberra that says that’s naughty. Why would the States want to be anchored by Canberra? Won’t this demonstrate incompetence and force Federation to adapt?
Good analysis and Australia struggles to grow up…. Unfortunately too many Australians are fearful of our own sovereignty, evidenced by resistance to a republic, then Howard et al. entering the ‘Asian century’ with emergence of white nativist or nationalist dog whistling, as an electoral tactic (plus deep seated belief).
While radical right libertarian economic policies and white Christian nationalist social policies are both central to the LNP, imported via US/GOP or Koch linked think tanks and donors (plus Oz media proprietors), there is an interesting interplay of issues or tactics with the LNP and media acting as a ‘delivery system’.
The tactic, understood well in the US, is that libertarian policies alone can only attract 5% of the vote as they are not very palatable for older voters. However, if you fill the media and social narrative spaces with ‘noise’ and allow white Christian nationalist ideas to dominate e.g. dog whistling, gay marriage etc., elections can be won (by ageing, regional and monocultural electorates) and libertarian policies can then be adopted once in government.
Now we have (enforced?) megaphone diplomacy by the Australian PM, Ministers and friendly media commentators using the US language e.g. ‘decoupling’ etc., like a death wish for our own sovereign trade relationship with China imposed by our conservative elites in think tanks, politics and media; vicious circle?
Thanks Bruce for your detailed narrative with much to reflect on.
I credit comment from”Michael in China” and “Mike Gilligan” for giving me a leg up.
Yes, Michael I agree that engaging in an honest and open way with China, as Bruce suggests “it requires more than intelligence and courage. It also requires vision”.
Mike thank you for mentioning a significant policy initiative of the Whitlam Labor Government, the 1976 Defence White Paper and your relevant comments.
I consider myself fortunate to have lived and experienced the vision, the policies and governance renewal under Whitlam, only to see it thwarted by the bloody minded LNP, Senate, the Press (especially Murdoch who turned on him) and the CIA.
Or in Gough’s own words* – “as Senator Withers has confessed, they “set upon a course to destroy us”. Australian conservatives set out to prove about themselves what they always allege about the communists; once they get in, they cannot be got out”. – “We are witnessing a concerted effort by conservative forces in Australia and, indeed, throughout most of the developed countries to use the Western recession as an excuse for preventing or postponing reform but take quite overt steps to entrench their own positions and increase their own privileges. This is not just an Australian phenomenon, although nowhere is this process so blatant or crude as in Australia”. I feel nothing has changed!
Then again probably the greatest reform, designed to significantly underwrite his other policy reforms, was the ill fated Petroleum and Minerals Authority under Minister Connor. The Labor Party was counting on this giving us a vertically integrated mining corporation to provide for public infrastructure and its resourcing (similar to what Statoil has done for Norway).
I weep for the country, for what we had and could have had, only to see our wealth frittered away by corporations, waved through by subsequent governments in all jurisdictions, both LNP & Labor under neo-liberal agendas.
* Reform During Recession – Gough Whitlam, Inaugural T.J. Ryan Memorial Lecture (28 April 1978)
Ian – thanks. It is only with the perspective of what we face now that the brilliance and audacity of Whitlams inspiration can be understood
Bruce,
A very sobering analysis of Australia’s cultural and political landscape as we enter 2021. I spent three decades in high school classrooms teaching Geography, History , Asian Studies and related topics to students from Year 7 to Year 12. In the end it became too much and I got out! . I am glad I am out of it. Sadly unlike students in many Asian countries who value learning as a means of advancement , all our students seem interested in is getting a ‘good grade’ . I wonder how many could even pass (50%) if made to resit exams? The pressure on us teachers , mainly from parents and sadly school administrators, to “pass” students was immense . Most Asian education has 70% or even 75% as the Pass mark for assessments – no “Mickey Mouse” courses there. During my career, before and after teaching, I worked in the Federal and a State Public Service . I was a “Nasho” and saw service in Vietnam as a Medic. I have worked in the English education system. I am fortunate to have visited the U.K., most of Southern Western and Central Europe, the Middle East , Southeast Asia, the east and west coasts of the U.S. and Ontario, Canada.
Australia rarely gains a mention in overseas news bulletins .People I met and the students I taught knew little or nothing about Australia.Many think Sydney is the National Capital .Teaching in England certainly brought that ignorance home. I strongly resented being treated by my employer and in most (not all) personal interrelationships in England as a “Colonial” .
Morrison’s ill advised attack on China over the Virus , while bowing to U.S. pressure (yet again!) was so immature and self defeating . We need to assert our independence strongly.If Switzerland and the Scandinavian countries can do it why can’t we?
Our media is a a disaster!. The totally unsuitable education system right through to tertiary level needs a total rethink. Voters must demand much more than the mediocre wishy washy nonsense from our politicians and so called leadership in business if this country is to avoid the scenario so well painted by Bruce.Ordinary people, particularly our women need to rise from their slumber and stand for Parliament and try for leadership positions in industry.
Sadly I am not confident we can avoid this disaster . The modern day ‘prophet’, Donald Horne was so correct, all those years ago.
What was it that that old Chinaman, who almost never got anything wrong, said? “Poor white trash of Asia”?
Lee (Harry) Kuan Yew. White trash, but with traitors in control.
Actually Lee did not just say “poor white trash”. He said that if Australia does not pull its socks up, it will end up pwt. Soon afterwards, Paul Keating got us off the back of the sheep.
I agree with the sentiments that Bruce’s forecast of Australia’s future is credible, unpalatable that it is. And it is the only game in town because governments (or anyone else) have been incapable of open and critical assessment of our future. And as any number of writers on this blog have demonstrated the nation’s governance mechanism has been sorely diminished by stealthy and pervasive corruption.
Lets take some heart from the fact that this has not always been the case.
About fifty years ago, Australia (sparked by Whitlam) reacted to defeat in Vietnam by restructuring the military, the defence planning establishment and our security objectives. No longer were we to wander the globe chaotically and incidentally chipping in where others’ wars alighted. We would make self reliant defence of our territory the driver of our energy and resources.That was expressed in the nation’s first Defence White Paper of 1976 which stands as an unmatched beacon for the sort of comprehensive forward thinking which Haigh is seeking to stimulate. That reshaping, led by Arthur Tange, set a bedraggled military on the path to unified self reliance – with overt American agreement.
That objective was achieved largely by the 1990s, not without pain and controversy- but delivered economically nevertheless.. But it has been eroded over the last thirty years successively by every Defence Minister beginning notably with Kim Beazley. The priority in defence spending has increasingly been political with the submarines a blatant pork barrel (breathtaking cost for a capability of relatively minor value to our direct defence) – thereby fertilising self interest in a hopelessly inefficient defence industry, academia, think tanks and venal lobbyists. All now institutionalised.
My point simply is that this nation did turn itself around, over about twenty years into the makings of an honest, confident and self reliant nation focussed on and respected in our region. These strategic objectives remain on balance our best way forward.
It’s obvious what needs to be done.
The most depressing article I have read in ages – mainly because I suspect it is true. Nice bloke Albanese but I doubt he has the mental agility to deal with what is to come and I’m certain he won’t attract enough votes to get Labor over the line. Rather, I fear we will happy clap our way into climate disaster and political oblivion led by a man who stands for nothing. That said, I’m not so sure about the claim that young white men (and women) will be taking marriage advice from their mothers. I see glimmers of hope in the large number of inter-racial marriages and partnerships that are quietly changing the Australian landscape. But I’m not sure it will be enough!
Well Bruce’s narrative is just a more detailed one that I have been offering in these comments most of the year. I would add, that increasingly Australia will look more and more like the white British colony it has always been, and in the end our occupation of this continent (25-30 million on a land mass the size of China or the US), which an Asia now reconciled psychologically to the return of China will begin to covet.
Bruce – unfortunately it requires more than intelligence and courage. It also requires vision – look to LKY who had to deal with rejection by Malaysia after the courageous fight for independence following a bitter occupation.
More frightening is the subjection to the USA. They appreciate our forward posture and stance with China and have our back, won’t forget us – paraphrasing a senior member of the Biden Asia-Pacific advisory team, a month ago. Shouldn’t we be behind them if we insist participating in that fight ?
More seriously, where is the public information and discussion around the economic modelling for the cost of needlessly disengaging with China on barley through to iron ore (albeit 5-7 years – its called planning), tourism education and migration ? I assume Treasury or Finance have done that just like business must do.
Focus on the neighbourhood. We need to seize the mantle whist the opportunity is in front of/has descended upon us.
Excellent article… “Australia does not have the moral courage to break free of the declining and decomposing US. We have determined that we will go down with the ship.” says it all, really!
It will be interesting to read this again in 5, 10 or 20 years’ time.
All very fine and true words, but what are we going to do about it? Trump is about gone, old Queen Betty is about to fall off the twig, China (and India)) will continue to grow, and the World’s largest Muslim population (Indonesia) are on our doorstep.
Australia grows more food than it can consume, has more resources that can be dug up and sent all over the World, imports just about everything it consumes, has sold off many assets to the above countries, and has nearly the highest per capita income (although unequally distributed) of any developed country.
Australia is coveted by those populous nations mentioned above, and should the USA not provide an alliance, and with the UK about to be shattered into its component countries, Australia could, in short order rapidly become a vassal state of China, India or Indonesia.
It is all very well to bloviate about Australia’s defence as many commentators do, but the fact remains that 100 years ago, those three countries had a population of 800 million, and today it is approaching 3 billion. They have to live somewhere. In comparison, Australia’s population has barely moved.
The Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity(2018) lists Per Capita income for Australia as $57395, China, $9770, Indonesia $3893, and India $2009. Their ECI (Economic Complexity Index) rates China 18th, India 42nd, Indonesia 61st, and Australia 85th, the least complex economy.
It would therefore seem to make sense that a major Australian goal would be to forge closer economic ties with Indonesia, on the basis that both countries would benefit. Sadly, this has not been the case, as I suspect that a Pentecostal Liberal government is reluctant to engage with one of the largest Muslim countries of the World, depite the glaring need to do so.
Have all but given up re your centrally pertinent question: “What the F**k are we going to do about it?
To perhaps restore a modicum of our national credibility, one small step might be to prosecute the likes of Howard, Downer and Associates for their complicity in the 2003 internationally illegal invasion and destruction of Iraq. A further Count of their Indictment might be for their authorising illegal spying in 2004 on destitute East Timor.
Perhaps I’m once again, just dream’n.
Already on the agenda of The New Liberals, Wayne!
Thank you Jim Kable. I’m at least a little heartened. However on a quick perusal of TNLs website, I couldn’t find any reference to their having Howard and Downer’s Iraq and East Timor “misadventures” on their agenda. I acknowledge it may be “buried” somewhere on TNLs website and agenda. Would appreciate if you could further enlighten me/us.
How come “F**k” in 1st sentence of Ken Dyer’s original comment was edited out. Are we so delicate and horrified here on “open-minded” P&I with the sight of even a politely suppressed 4-letter expletive? Rather pathetic that you apparently find such so objectionable.
Borrow money? Why and from where? The Australian Government is the monopoly currency issuer of the Australian dollar and need NOT borrow a cent from anyone. When will this fact penetrate the cerebral processes of people? If it does borrow, which is entirely unnecessary for the aforementioned reason, it will be by bond issue which will eventually be bought back by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the circular and unnecessary monetary gymnastics which enrich the corporate parasites feeding off the fairy tale of financially constrained sovereign currency issuing Governments. Accordingly, most of the doom and gloom postulated can be set aside. That’s not to say that Australia will not need to find more markets for the foregone goods and services exported to China, but really, let’s not get caught up in a wave of unnecessary hysteria, however well meaning. It’s just nonsense.
Malcolm, may I please urge your readers to read Gareth Hutchens (ABC Business Journalist). He explains contemporary economics very simply and very clearly. (I’d include a link but the editor forbids me.)
BTW, Hutchens has been noting how Guy Debelle (Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank) has been implementing what you say.
The question though is why wouldn’t they borrow – so as to give profits in the undertaking to their “mates” and fellow rorters, of course!
Paul: Judging by where we have come from – as a nation and by where we are now – this is no dystopian vision you describe here – rather a coolly-assessed understanding of where we are headed in the now rapidly approaching future.
If we think that there are only two sides to the one political coin loosely referred to as the LNP/ALP duopoly – then we are missing the point of the emergence of a new political movement – The New Liberals (or, TNL) – diametrically different to those two – seeking an independent foreign policy with MMT vision to care for the whole of society – implementations of Aged Care Royal Commission “recommendations” gaol for Parliamentarians who have rorted the system and sold out to vested interests – a proper conversation with First Nations Australians around the Uluru Statement from the Heart and release and compensation appropriate to asylum seekers and families so tortured by the ghouls of “children overboard” and “stop-the-boats” and “on-water-matters” secrecy – and any of their top bureaucratic enablers – with gaol terms apportioned to the degree of ugliness – from the top down – as with any other Royal Commission currently underway or to be set up.
Excellent prognosis Bruce, it is exactly where we are headed, Australia will become developing nation status if not worse, a sacrifice to both the US and the UK, while both these two are struggling grandfathers going down the gurgler anyway.
This is why I held some opposition to changing the words of the National Anthem, which in any case is pure tokenism from Morrison who makes sure he gets the kudos. It will bring no change to the lives of indigenous Australians and they know it. For the Liberals our First Australians are just unnecessary weeds in the way of the mining industry, there is nothing sincere in anything they say or do in terms of bringing genuine change to the people who have lived here for 60,000 years. We’ve witnessed over 7 years of play acting from Abbott to Turnbull to Morrison – they shut the door every time in terms of real change for Aboriginal Australians who simply ask for their voices to be heard, that we allow them to use their ways of dealing with problems, and not another white man intervention based on political games to win elections.
The poor, the disabled, refugees, mental health sufferers, indigenous Australians, the homeless, the unemployed, seniors on government pensions – they are just untermensch in the eyes of this government. It’s so easy to read the ideology at the basis of Liberal Party thought. They take us right back to 19th Century English views with the same attitudes projected on the same people.
Remember the words in a verse of the well known 19th Century church hymn “All Things Bright and Beautiful.”
“The rich man in his castle
The poor man at his gate
God made them high and lowly
And ordered their estate.”
How convenient that god endorses this aristocratic hierarchy, but the Liberals still think this way, ask preacher Scott and his assemblage of men and now a new woman in cabinet who are all of the Christian persuasion they claim. Or do they just use religious claims to gaslight us? To look better when everything tells us they are hypocrites to ever even insinuate that they follow any of the teachings of the purported Jesus? I’m not a Christian but I would agree many of the things the Biblical Jesus says in the Gospels are still valid in a secular philosophical sense.
Why I think changing the anthem words was futile:
The words “we are young and free” clearly pertains to the last 233 years since the First Fleet arrived. It refers to the country that has developed since then. It is therefore a youthful country with the right to pursue its own direction and not be told by the grandfathers of the US and UK to shut up and go back to being a child. Everybody knows of a child that has been captured by its parents control, or grandparents control – it never breaks free. This is why it is so essential that we become our own republic and cut the chains that bind us. Otherwise we will always be an infant locked in captivity, never able to realise its own identity, autonomy, and genuine ownership of its own views on all matters. We will never truly be independent.
Many of us on here hold a different view on China, and for that we are called (thanks to Clive Hamilton) CCP sympathisers, China apologists, and even accused of being on the CCP’s payroll. This is a form of ad hominem, the worst kind of appalling academic argument tool you can use in the book. Attack the person, not their argument. It is a failure of academia that people like Hamilton resort to such rubbish. The rotten tabloid media relish it.
If the truth be known, at least in my case (and I suspect for many others) my concern is Australia and where we are headed under the Liberals and a weak Labor too frightened to be different is a horror show. Watching where Australia is headed under such appalling mismanagement is painful. It’s not even about China, but our suckering the the US.
I love my country deeply, I could even say I’m a quiet patriot for all that is good in this country, but the kind of scenario of what we could become like you outline above Bruce, is the same one that haunts me everyday as I see what is being produced by the Morrison government.
Splendid summary once again George, well done and thank you.
Your reference to the “..First Australians [being] just unnecessary weeds in the way of the mining industry..” is perceptive and is correct. I remember the obstructionism of the Libs/Nats to Native Title and in particular the push to permanently extinguish the native title rights of indigenous Australians following the Mabo and Wik decisions. The recent actions of Rio Tinto confirm little has changed.
Thanks julianp
It is interesting that yesterday many from here were discussing Morrison ‘feeding the chooks’ in the Michael West article. Yet the very term comes from Joh Bjelke-Petersen himself, and he is also the one that did everything to stop the Mabo decision taking place. Fear campaigns about farmers losing all their land to Torres Strait and mainland Aboriginal Australians were at the core of his ugly propaganda. Funny that our history shows it was exactly what happened to our First Nations people. But then they weren’t white.
Still, Joh got a knighthood from the queen, which should never have happened. In retrospect it demonstrated the continued support of the British Royals (at the time) for white colonial Australia.
Its also like there is still a lineage of standard bearers for Joh in Queensland (with his police state), Peter Dutton comes straight to mind, and his fear campaigns are still at the heart of making any change for indigenous Australians.
And Peter Dutton was in fact a police officer in the final stages of that then extremely corrupt Bjelke-Petersen régime. He’s also the chap who has grown his property portfolio to at least 16 – as I read a year or so back – unless in the meantime he’s passed some over to the control of his wife or some other mechanism to make it look less! Shouldn’t legal advisers also be made liable for rorting done according to the instructions of their clients? Maybe that will be something investigated by The New Liberals when they take office at the Federal level…
The sheer mediocrity of parliament is astounding. Formal education, in this case, evinces very little in terms of efficacy
Never have so many had university degrees. Never has the quality been lower. What’s going on?
Thank you George. I agree
There is a fine and passionate essay to-day in The Guardian Australia – on-line – by Joe Williams of Wagga Wagga – in response to the nonsense spouted by Morrison. Check it out!
George, great commentary to accompany Bruce’s piece. A bit depressing if Australia continues the trajectory to become effectively a 51st state of the USA. As the US descends into even more dire economic and social straits with 100 million in poverty, let’s hope that enough Australians will wake up and vote out these poodles and lapdogs of the USA who are currently in charge in Canberra. We perhaps need a new Paul Keating, somebody who has courage to see off the rank tribalism/racism of the LNP. (I wonder if our Daniel Andrews can rise up to the challenge…).
We will be risking long term national economic suicide if we join an American war against China. The USD will probably devalue in a major way before too long; instead of China just achieving parity with the US in terms of economic size, it is likely that the Chinese economy will be much larger than that of the US before we know it. The Chinese have wisely signed up the Russians as their strategic partner which means at best, a stalemate if the US is tempted to launch a major strike on the Chinese. (And if becomes nuclear, we can all forget about everything else…).
I totally agree Man Lee. Thanks for the good words.
I doubt the majority of Parliament even bothers to read a book on China – eg Mahubani’s or Raby’s. Or Fitzgerald’s. A posse of dumdums?
George: Thumbs up from me for most of your post but…
Yes, the change to the national anthem may well have been motivated by Morrison and co as an easy bit of tokenism to keep the wolves at bay, but the fact that there are wolves that need keeping at bay is a positive thing; that is, if there was not a groundswell of support from the Australian people for reconciliation, social justice for indigenous people, then no token would be required.
Australia is young if we think of Australia as only coming into being upon European colonization with eventual self-government in most things arriving in 1901. But if we think of Australia in a civilization sense, then we are old. We have a vast and largely unexplored pre-1788 history of human endeavour, culture and thought. The fact that in our early days, our forefathers were unable to recognize this doesn’t mean that it never existed or ever went completely away. I think here we can have optimism.
Forget the transitory kudos that the appalling Morrison may gain. In terms of Morrison’s legacy, I doubt that this small symbolic change will take precedence over his (and the LNP) inability to begin to bring Australia to real independence from UK/USA protection.
George, your take on ad hominem struck a cord with me too. Many Chinese Australians like me who have lived in this country for decades, our children who grew up in this country and our grandchildren who were born in this country, love Australia dearly. However, when we attempt to explain the many misconceptions about China and the Chinese people, we too risk being labelled China apologist or plainly pro-Chinese. We are more easily tagged because we are genetically Chinese; even though many of us are overseas Chinese from the Southeast Asian region; and thus have no connection with China apart from ancestry. We have nothing to gain but a lot to lose when we speak up about the deteriorating Australia/China relationship. Most of us from families with business backgrounds are concerned about the damage that the conflict can do to the Australian economy; and thus the jobs and living standards of Australians. It takes a lot of time and effort to build up a relationship with a trading partner. Once that trust is built and the business progresses, it takes a lot of goodwill to maintain the relationship and to further improve it. While the business community of Australia may understand this, the government seems to expect business as usual while they pillory China for geopolitical reasons. Concerned Chinese Australians have been alarmed by this dichotomy and have attempted to ameliorate the situation by providing explanations. The powers that matter do not hear us. The situation continues to deteriorate.
I am afraid that the full impact of the decoupling (we are only hanging on by the thread of iron ore) takes a bit of lead time to be felt. The government announces that 80% of businesses are bouncing back. The question is whether they will stay there six months or a year or more down the track. With experience of the pandemic and economic freeze, people with discretion will save that extra dollar instead of spending it. With drastically reduced tourists, international students or businessmen, business will slow to a standstill and ultimately fail. Moreover, once the pandemic is over, competition for markets can be expected to be very intense. What is most upsetting is that the political elites take what we have for granted. Many politicians want us to believe that other countries around the world are in the same state. What they do not tell us is that many are preparing for a post Covid19 future. Europe has just sign a trade agreement with China, Russia is building the 2nd gas pipeline to Europe, RECP is set to go (although Australia is a signatory, there is no assurance as to how this will pan out with China) and the US is expected to improve its trade relationship with China in order to accelerate its recovery. The situation for Australia is dire indeed.
Thanks for your comment Teow Loon Ti.
With your first paragraph I can only try to empathise about what people of Chinese ancestry, and in fact others with Asian features from different countries must sometimes be experiencing. Like you explain, if Chinese people come here from other Asian countries, where they have lived perhaps for several generations, and have been Australian citizens also often for several generations, it must be doubly difficult due to the fact that you relate to being Australian, although feel rejected because of your appearance and subtle cultural differences.
But while I can empathise, I cannot ever be the person targeted because I fit in – I have British ancestry going back to the First Fleet so I’m not so obvious. All I can say is that I do understand that it is painful for those targeted, and it is very much a motive for me to be writing on this site to dispel racist views.
You will notice I have often mentioned Australia’s long history of racism projected at Chinese people, and that did not start with Mao, but far earlier – so it is not just about ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ or the CCP. I also think the the current government and media is milking racism and xenophobia in exactly the same way Howard did over those of Arab, Middle Eastern, Afghani and Sri Lankan backgrounds. It is a game of ugly nationalistic, jingoistic prejudice, and it is also racist in the sense that it always comes from the point of view that those who come from the West are somehow superior to other so called “races” on Earth. That was the fuel of imperialism too.
Since the human genome project was completed we know that genetic variation is not sufficient to say there is anything more than one race called the human race on this planet, and so we are truly all one in that respect.
Yet many still linger unconsciously in the belief of the 19th Century pseudoscience categorization titled ‘Scientific’ Racialism, which divided the world into Aryans, Mongols, and Negroes – three distinct races – and it allowed for those who called themselves Aryans to think they were superior. This kind of thinking began already in the 17th Century but by the 19th Century it was said to be a ‘science’. Many through ignorance still ascribe this kind of thinking to Adolf Hitler much later, but its root is much far earlier and widespread in countries we call allies as well. What scares me is that many of the white supremacist groups in Australia today, still believe in exactly the same rubbish.
Given that I have travelled extensively in my life, and been also in the situation where I had to adapt to another culture and learn another language to fluency, it was a very valuable lesson to know what that experience implies. Many Australians have no idea of the difficulties one faces in such an experience, the humility it requires, home sickness, and that learning a new language and fitting into another culture is no joke.
For me the real answer to xenophobia and racism is to immerse yourself into another culture, learn about it with an open mind, and in so doing, gain respect for the people who manifest that culture in their own country and elsewhere. It is the antidote to fear of the unknown. For those who dare to do this with China, Chinese people, and even Chinese language, there is such a gift waiting to be received that it is worth much more than gold. My experience with Chinese people in Australia, since 3 years of age (yes it was), and in China, has always returned me with positive outcomes. Show interest in Chinese culture and respect for Chinese people and they will reward you with an open door, and a great deal of encouragement for your interest. I believe we misread China and through laziness with learning about its history, culture, language, philosophies, and political evolution,we have no idea what such an extraordinary country has to offer.
On the topic of Jesus once again, few people know that Kong zi, more well known as Confucius in this part of the world, said more than 500 years before the purported Jesus:
” Do unto others as you would have them do unto you”.
That is one of the most profound pieces of secular wisdom in the history of the world, and wouldn’t it be good if we could all try to adhere to its merit.
George, thanks for the understanding and the kind words. I must confess that a huge part of what I am comes from being educated under the British colonial education system that they left behind in Malaysia. The switch to Malay orientated education came only after I left university in 1970. I also attended university in Australia several times. I think in English and do mental multiplication in Chinese! I may seem very critical of the West in my writings but I have a very Western orientated mind underpinned by an education in English. There is much about the West that I admire and much that Westerners can be proud of. The same can be said of my other heritage, Chinese. I live very comfortably within my split personality.
Maybe you are just a very good example of what more positive Western and Eastern influences can achieve in a person when they are given equal respect.
Excellent article. If Hawke and Keating were responsible for the demise of the Unions, Rudd and Gillard gave the LNP the opportunity they craved: total control. When Kevin O7 came to power he should have buried LNP for a decade. Instead Labor tore itself apart on gigantic egoes, and the LNP regime began.
The LNP Pentecostal regime will continue if the Labor party does not dump Albanese and try to find someone with a bit more charisma. I cannot see another opportunity for Labor until at least 2024/5, by which time Australia will have become the Australian “Gilead” version of Keating’s “banana republic”.
Plausible. Dan Tehan, the physical embodiment of a brain fart?
In 100 words (!). (Strict editorial constraint for those like me with no public reputation.)
Albanese will win – in October this year or May 2022. Murdoch is irrelevant.
Australia’s platonic (intellectual) ‘elite’ certainly knows where we are going – and why. Just read this blog.
Frances is already ensuring that Australia will find new/growing markets, enough to bridge the (temporarily?) decreased margin of export profitability to China.
Haigh needs to pass (Macro) Economics 101: “credit ratings” are irrelevant.
Tehan – agreed! (Yet the ABC’s Sally Sara was just as deprecated.)
The U.S. is not ‘declining nor decomposing’. Its military reach will dwarf China’s for the next 30+ years, (particularly given China’s aging population). Biden will co-ordinate inter- and intra- nationally, brilliantly. Especially when he wins the Senate.
Haigh’s “critique :-))” will itself help evolve an intelligent and clearer ownership of our national identity.
Thanks Bruce for the good kick in the shins we need. “Why IS Australia” the question we must answer. Ian Kershaw said ” the path to Auschwitz was paved with indifference” Our indifference to our predicament and to those we inflict our indifference on will be our Waterloo.
Bruce’s errie forecast of Australia’s future following economical decoupling from China for the next 10 years or so has shattered the Australian dream created in the golden 1960s where the lucky country became the focus of immigration from more than 150 nations on earth. When EU developed & raised their standards of living, they stop coming and were replaced by Asians and other emerging countries. With the rise of China and RCEP, the living standards of Asia country is rising and with increased racism in Australia, immigrants will stop coming. Our population will not exceed 30 million and although we can feed ourselves, we no longer able to afford the luxuries of consumer goods and social services which we are used to. Finally the EastAsiaForum article by Peter Drysdale and Shiro Armstrong, ANU (4Sep2020): “For Australia to join the great decoupling from China that some Americans and Australian security officials demand would bring devastating costs to Australia and to economic and political security across Northeast Asia. It fails to appreciate that exorcising our trade with China would also decouple trade from Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia”.
If we don’t improve our game, then our Australian dream will turn into a nightmare, a shade worse than Keating’s banana republic.
So why push decoupling from China in the first place?
Bruce you are certainly correct on Dan Tehan.
Bruce, as much as I want to be optimistic your essay confirms my pessimism for Australian people of ordinary and lesser means. Donald Horne may well have referred to the lucky country governed by the mediocre, but he could have added the descriptor: mean, corrupt, immoral and criminal. I see the Liberals are indulging in money laundering, giving taxpayer monies to corporations and mates and having at least some of that money returned, not to the taxpayer, but to the Liberal party by way of political donations. Morrison will continue to avoid accountability by limiting parliament’s days for sitting. Perhaps even delaying the implementation of a covid vaccine is part of that strategy. To misquote a song from Oklahoma ‘the country’s in the very worst of hands’.
A country will always have its fair share of scoundrels. It’s the system that selects them for government that we need to put on trial.