Ken Henry was forever explaining economic growth, and consequently the strength of the budget, is a function of productivity, participation and population. With the weak productivity growth of recent years likely to continue, the population and labour participation assumptions become crucial – particularly as the Treasurer is forecasting budget surpluses so big that over 10 years they are assumed to wipe out the Government’s net debt. The question must me asked: to deliver the forecast surpluses the government demanded, did Treasury have no choice but to assume a much faster rate of population growth, even if this contradicted the Prime Minister’s congestion-busting rhetoric? (more…)
Abul Rizvi
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ABUL RIZVI: Migration confusion again (Part 2)
Judith Sloan writing in The Australian (We’re the big losers in this immigration numbers game) has called on the Morrison Government to do much more to drive down immigration, not just the migration program which is measured in terms of permanent visas granted, but also net migration which measures long-term and permanent arrivals minus departures. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Migration confusion again (Part 1)
Judith Sloan writing in The Australian (We’re the big losers in this immigration numbers game) has called on the Morrison Government to do much more to drive down immigration, not just the migration program which is measured in terms of permanent visas granted, but also net migration which measures long-term and permanent arrivals minus departures. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Questions for Dutton on his record border protection failure.
The mainstream media (other than The Australian, The Daily Telegraph, Herald-Sun, Daily Mail, Sky News After Dark, Alan Jones, Ray Hadley and their ilk who usually obsess about border protection) has at last picked up on Dutton’s failure to secure our borders. Dutton now holds the record as the Immigration Minister under whom Australia received the largest number of non-genuine asylum applications (see here and here). It is time now to ask Dutton more detailed questions on what he has done about this over the last three years and what he will now do given he has failed to stem the surge? (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Asylum Seekers and Character Checking
Government has expressed concern that under the Medevac Amendments, serious criminals will enter Australia. Immigration Minister Coleman said at Question Time that a backpacker from Norway passes a stronger Character test than the people entering under the Medevac Amendments. While this is superficially correct, in practice the Government is being quite misleading. Let’s unpack the issues. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Another Dutton mess. This time Citizenship processing.
The Auditor-General on 11 February 2019 found in its audit of citizenship application processing that these are not being processed in either a time efficient manner or a resource efficient manner. But this is a tiny portion of a wider malaise in the administration of a once world class immigration system the Government and the senior leadership of the Home Affairs Department has allowed be run down. The record numbers of largely non-genuine asylum seeker applications (see here and here) and the Government’s lack of action on these (the backlog of these at primary and review stages is now likely to be well in excess of 60,000 – Home Affairs will not reveal the actual backlog) is the end result of the wider malaise. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Is the Government walking both sides of the street on immigration?
Scott Morrison has announced (see here) a commitment to ‘create’ 1.25 million jobs over the next five years, beating Tony Abbott’s commitment in 2013 to create 1 million jobs over five years. But to achieve 1.25 million jobs over five years, Morrison will need to maintain an even higher level of net migration than over the past five years. How should we reconcile this with Morrison’s earlier speech committing to reduce immigration, particularly to reduce congestion in the major cities (see here)? Well the two can’t be reconciled. One of them must, almost by definition, be untrue.
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ABUL RIZVI. Is The Australian making excuses for incompetent immigration administration?
Nick Cater writing in The Australian (see here if you can get past the Paywall) seems to think people trying to manipulate the visa system is news. Has he been as asleep to this while our intrepid government has allowed a world class visa system to deteriorate into chaos (see here)? It is the chaos in our visa system that has enabled Dutton to set a new record in the number of mainly non-genuine asylum seeker applications (see here). But rather than ask the hard questions about how a government obsessed with border protection could have allowed this, Cater looks to blame anyone other than the government. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Government Continues to Pretend We Have No Air Borders
In an echo of Donald Trump, Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Immigration Minister David Coleman continued to pretend yesterday we only have sea borders and we can ignore our air borders. They announced closure of two detention centres (see here) without telling the Australian public that their mismanagement of the visa system will inevitably mean we will need lots of detention space in future if we are to ever regain control of the visa system and deal with the deluge of mainly non-genuine asylum seekers arriving by air (see here). (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: Privatising visa processing – the alarm bells are ringing (Part 1)
Major ICT transformation projects conducted ‘in partnership’ with a big IT company are high risk. Privatisation of core government functions such as visa processing are also high risk, especially when undertaken under the cloak of commercial-in-confidence type secrecy. Doing the two together multiplies the risk big time. But that is exactly what the Home Affairs department is doing. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: Privatising visa processing – the alarm bells are ringing (Part 2)
Major ICT transformation projects conducted ‘in partnership’ with a big IT company are high risk. Privatisation of core government functions such as visa processing are also high risk, especially when undertaken under the cloak of commercial-in-confidence type secrecy. Doing the two together multiplies the risk big time. But that is exactly what the Home Affairs department is doing. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: How the 2017-18 migration program was delivered.
The report on the 2017-18 migration program has now been publicly released, more than two and a half months after an exclusive to The Australian newspaper and a short time after the Home Affairs department appeared before Senate estimates. As reported in The Australian, the outcome was indeed 162,417, over 27,500 below the ceiling of 190,000 – by far the largest program shortfall in at least 50 years. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. What were the drivers of Net Overseas Migration in 2017-18?
Net Overseas Migration (NOM) in 2017-18 fell to 236,733, down from 262,490 in 2016-17. The decline is not as large as might have been expected given cuts to the migration and humanitarian programs and policy changes to employer sponsored temporary and permanent migration. Visitors changing status after arrival now represent a record 24 per cent of NOM – a crucial indicator the visa system is in a bad way. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: Scott Morrison’s Record on Immigration.
While Scott Morrison earlier this year publicly disagreed with Tony Abbott on immigration levels, he eventually gave way to Dutton’s ruse about ‘greater scrutiny’ leading to the migration program ‘ceiling’ not being delivered in 2017-18. Will he continue to compromise with Abbott and Dutton on immigration or has he drawn a line in the sand by appointing a moderate in David Coleman as the new immigration minister? (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. The Best of 2018: Dutton Sets New Asylum Seeker Application Record.
Why did 50,000 asylum seekers arriving by boat represent a crisis for our border sovereignty while the arrival of a similar number over the past two and a half years by plane is just ho hum? Peter Dutton in 2017-18 has set a new record for the number of asylum seeker applications received. His record surpasses that set in 2012-13 under the Rudd/Gillard government. This is the result of a crisis in our visa processing system (see here) which is likely to be creating a honeypot for people smugglers. The new record will likely be exceeded in 2018-19 as Home Affairs is reducing frontline staff and IT contractors (see here). Outsourcing visa processing will make the problem worse. Tackling the chaos in our visa processing system will cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of dollars, possibly north of a billion dollars and take many years. Is the Government’s border protection mantra a diversion from its real border protection failings? (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Is Minister Coleman Unwinding Dutton’s Sub-class 457 Changes
Poor David Coleman. Business and employer groups, particularly in regional Australia, have been pillorying him for the ham-fisted changes to employer-sponsored temporary and permanent migration implemented by his predecessor Peter Dutton. Contrary to the traditional approach of past Liberal Party Immigration Ministers, Dutton tightened these categories in a way that shocked business and employer groups. Coleman is now sensibly moving to unwind many of Dutton’s changes. But can he make the changes quickly enough to satisfy employers around regional Australia and will he get the balance right between streamlining visa pathways, protecting the opportunities of semi-skilled Australian workers, maintaining visa integrity and minimising exploitation of the overseas workers? (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Dutton Sets New Asylum Seeker Application Record
Why did 50,000 asylum seekers arriving by boat represent a crisis for our border sovereignty while the arrival of a similar number over the past two and a half years by plane is just ho hum? Peter Dutton in 2017-18 has set a new record for the number of asylum seeker applications received. His record surpasses that set in 2012-13 under the Rudd/Gillard government. This is the result of a crisis in our visa processing system (see here) which is likely to be creating a honeypot for people smugglers. The new record will likely be exceeded in 2018-19 as Home Affairs is reducing frontline staff and IT contractors (see here). Outsourcing visa processing will make the problem worse. Tackling the chaos in our visa processing system will cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of dollars, possibly north of a billion dollars and take many years. Is the Government’s border protection mantra a diversion from its real border protection failings? (Note: Please print this post to obtain a clearer view of the tables) (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Dutton Sets New Asylum Seeker Application Record
Why did 50,000 asylum seekers arriving by boat represent a crisis for our border sovereignty while the arrival of a similar number over the past two and a half years by plane is just ho hum? Peter Dutton in 2017-18 has set a new record for the number of asylum seeker applications received. His record surpasses that set in 2012-13 under the Rudd/Gillard government. This is the result of a crisis in our visa processing system (see here) which is likely to be creating a honeypot for people smugglers. The new record will likely be exceeded in 2018-19 as Home Affairs is reducing frontline staff and IT contractors (see here). Outsourcing visa processing will make the problem worse. Tackling the chaos in our visa processing system will cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of dollars, possibly north of a billion dollars and take many years. Is the Government’s border protection mantra a diversion from its real border protection failings? (Note: Please print this post to obtain a clearer view of the tables) (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Is our Visa Processing System in Crisis?
A fundamental aspect of a well operating immigration system is one that encourages people to apply for the right visa and follow intended visa pathways after arrival rather than use visitor visas to by-pass applying for the right visa. Visitor visas have the lowest level of scrutiny and are the easiest to exploit. But the current Home Affairs leadership has let both offshore and onshore backlogs and processing times increase dramatically with a commensurate decline in the integrity of Australia’s immigration system. This includes allowing unscrupulous labour agents to use the Protection Visa system to supply easily exploitable labour to unscrupulous employers. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Morrison says ‘enough’ to a problem largely of his making.
Scott Morrison says ‘enough’ to the level of migration to Sydney and Melbourne (see here). Yet he fails to mention that it was his actions that brought about the surge in migration to Sydney and Melbourne in the first place. And more knee jerk decisions won’t help, either from the Commonwealth or the states. (more…)
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An agricultural visa would change Australian society – for the worse
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has, for the time being, rejected creation of an agricultural visa in favour of changes to the existing working holiday maker program and the seasonal worker visa (see here). These are unlikely to satisfy demands of the National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) for an agricultural visa. While most Australians would see this as a marginal issue, they should not. An agricultural visa has the potential to take us down a very slippery slope if the experience of other nations with such visas is any guide. (more…)
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How the 2017-18 migration program was delivered
The report on the 2017-18 migration program has now been publicly released, more than two and a half months after an exclusive to The Australian newspaper and a short time after the Home Affairs department appeared before Senate estimates. As reported in The Australian, the outcome was indeed 162,417, over 27,500 below the ceiling of 190,000 – by far the largest program shortfall in at least 50 years. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Is Dutton Frustrated by the Success of Turnback Policy?
After Scott Morrison’s success in implementing boat turnbacks, and Shorten insisting he will maintain that policy, Dutton’s role in this space has largely been confined to scaremongering. At last he has found a role he excels in. But like the boy who cried wolf, is the Australian public starting to see through Dutton’s bluster? (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Privatising visa processing – the alarm bells are ringing (Part 2)
Major ICT transformation projects conducted ‘in partnership’ with a big IT company are high risk. Privatisation of core government functions such as visa processing are also high risk, especially when undertaken under the cloak of commercial-in-confidence type secrecy. Doing the two together multiplies the risk big time. But that is exactly what the Home Affairs department is doing. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Privatising visa processing – the alarm bells are ringing (Part 1)
Major ICT transformation projects conducted ‘in partnership’ with a big IT company are high risk. Privatisation of core government functions such as visa processing are also high risk, especially when undertaken under the cloak of commercial-in-confidence type secrecy. Doing the two together multiplies the risk big time. But that is exactly what the Home Affairs department is doing. (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI. Morrison’s U-Turn on Migrants for the Bush.
Scott Morrison has given another exclusive, this time to news.com, on his ideas to encourage more skilled migrants to settle in the regions and smaller cities and away from the major metropolitan centres. While it’s great to have a prime minister prepared to talk about immigration and population, he again failed to explain why usage of existing visas for the regions and smaller cities has steadily declined since he first became immigration minister under Tony Abbott and why Peter Dutton took steps to strangle the Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme. Will Morrison now reverse Dutton’s changes? (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Scott Morrison’s Record on Immigration
While Scott Morrison earlier this year publicly disagreed with Tony Abbott on immigration levels, he eventually gave way to Dutton’s ruse about ‘greater scrutiny’ leading to the migration program ‘ceiling’ not being delivered in 2017-18. Will he continue to compromise with Abbott and Dutton on immigration or has he drawn a line in the sand by appointing a moderate in David Coleman as the new immigration minister? (more…)
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ABUL RIZVI: Will the number of temporary entrants continue to grow?
Apart from Senator Anning’s appalling speech, the other big immigration news this week was that the stock of temporary entrants in Australia was over 2 million as at 30 June 2018. Since 2012, the stock has grown by over 400,000. This has been a long-term trend since the recession of the early 1990s. But is it inevitable this trend will continue, and if so, is that a good idea? (more…)