Andrew Farran

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Brexit – August holiday time for urgent reflections to avoid disaster

    In that other hemisphere August is a time for holidays and reflection. For some it may be more a matter for reflection as they contemplate the virtual stalemate surrounding the UK’s quest to be rid of the EU. The fact is that having so inextricably integrated itself with the EU over so many decades extrication has become a nightmare. Crashing out rather than a phased withdrawal is now a more likely prospect. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Special Forces: The Downside – Impossible missions out of country and out of culture

    The Australian Special Forces are again in the firing line for alleged misconduct in combat, in relation to which the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force is expected to hand down a report in the near future. The number of alleged incidents are more than previously believed, though relatively small overall. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. BREXIT. Where’s Boris?

    It was mid-afternoon on the Monday (9th July) and the assembled Eastern European Foreign Ministers had visited London to hear an address by Foreign Minister Boris. But where was he? Boris had a major distraction from his day job. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. South Pacific Islands responding to security concerns

    The Pacific Islands Forum will announce a new Biketawa Plus Declaration at its forthcoming Ministerial summit with fresh directions and priorities for members in the face of external pressures on the region, not least from China and Russia. There will be particular attention to security issues in keeping with good governance and the rule of law. The Forum owes much its character and structure to a former Australian diplomat and late Secretary General whose regional experience provided formative insights for its development in the modern era.
    The sinews of a viable Pacific Islands cooperative grouping with concerns for regional security, in addition to economic and social development, democratic values and human rights, are beginning to take a firm form. In an overdue development – previously impeded by local conflict and political instability, and it could be said Australia’s benign neglect of the region over several decades – the countries of the Pacific Islands Forum will next September sign a new Declaration, Biketawa Plus, to guide the Forum on its priorities for security cooperation and provide a framework for meeting emerging threats in keeping with good governance and the rule of law.
    The Declaration is also expected to cover environmental concerns and climate change resilience (such as protection against rising sea levels).
    There has been a long-lead up to this point, beginning with the formation of the South Pacific Commission in 1947, a body whose main task was to coordinate and cover the regional programs and interests of the former colonial powers. Over time the Commission lost something of its standing  and influence as the island states gained independence and sought to shake off those former colonial connections.
    Following unsettling periods involving failures of governance in several of the territories- such as the George Speight coup attempt in Fiji in 2000 and the subsequent denial of democratic values in that country; and the racial and ethnic violence in the Solomons leading to the successful peace-keeping intervention by Australia through the Regional Assistance Mission (RAMSI) in 2003 –  the Forum has sought to increase its presence and assert its own political prerogatives – more so than has been seen previously among such inter-governmental groups in the region.
    The Declaration in September will be known as Biketawa Plus, after the initial Biketawa Declaration in 2000 prompted by the Fiji coup at that time. An inspirational and formative genius progressing this move at the time was an Australian diplomat, Greg Unwin, who had served for many years in the region having opened Australia’s first diplomatic mission in Apia, later as Australian High Commissioner in Vanuatu and Fiji, and then as Deputy High Commissioner in New Zealand.
    At the 2000 Forum summit in Kiribati Mr Unwin played a key role in the drafting of the first Biketawa Declaration which followed a closed-door ‘retreat’ of members on an off-shore island of the same name. This consolidated the political cohesion of the members that has been built on since.
    At the initial Kiribati meeting Unwin was nominated for the position of first secretary-general of the Forum but being an Australian met some opposition. However his regional credentials and acknowledged experience, and personal skills, carried the day and when the question of a second term arose, his renewal was confirmed without objection. As Secretary-General he saw the Forum adopt its “Pacific Plan” at the Port Morseby summit in 2005 – a scheme of cooperation based on its “four pillars” of economic growth, sustainable development, good governance and security.
    [Greg Urwin died in 2008: see Hamish McDonald, “Careful diplomat brokered regional co-operation, SMH, Aug 15, 2008]
    The governmental initiatives this year are clearly a response to increasing concerns over Chinese naval and diplomatic activity in the region, including reports of the alleged funding of a naval base in Vanuatu, since denied; and other projects whereby it is being said that expensive Chinese loans with strict repayment terms are being forced on these vulnerable island states – as a consequence of the relative neglect of islander development goals in past decades.
    On the military and security front it is to be noted that military exercises known as “Indo-Pacific Endeavour” were held this year and included defence and security training with forces from Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, PNG and the Solomon Islands. The Australian army is also supporting the development of Vanuatu’s mobile forces. A defence co-operation program operating more widely in the Pacific Islands has included the delivery of  new Guardian Class offshore patrol vessels.
    In addition to more aid money from the May Budget, the Australian government recently agreed to build a 4,000 km $136 million undersea internet cable connection between the Solomons and Australia to prevent, it is said, the Chinese company Huawei being involved in the project, allegedly for security reasons.
    Earlier in its Foreign Policy White Paper the government committed to setting up an Australian Pacific Security College “to deliver security and law enforcement training at the leadership level”.
    The Australian newspaper reported on 5th July that a Parliamentary Library briefing paper speculated that these commitments “may reflect a renewed desire on the part of the Australian government to work with Pacific Island countries to ensure values such as the rule of law and transparency are strengthened as new players in the region emerge” – a nod towards China and Russia.
    The South Pacific is no longer a backwater for Australia. It is an area of strategic and political importance locally. More particularly, unlike with southeast and east Asia, it is a region where Australia can exercise real influence for good and be taken notice of.  This carries commensurate responsibilities. The Pacific Islands Forum’s Biketava Plus initiative is the most recent example where Australia’s influence for good can be exercised effectively, with one caution: our defence and intelligence cadres should conduct themselves in these regions, when it is appropriate for them to be  there at all, with a light touch. The Pacific Islanders are the stakeholders in this region and must be seen as the drivers of their own destiny – with help from their friends. Australia cannot afford to be seen as acting as if it runs the place, least of all act as the local bully. That could lead to an embarrassing displacement.
    Andrew Farran is a former diplomat, law academic and trade policy adviser.

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Brexit: All in the National Interest

    British PM Theresa May is presently holding the strategic high ground on Brexit after the day-long meeting with her whole Cabinet at Chequers last Friday. To her formerly disputing colleagues she could announce that evening:  “Collective responsibility is now fully restored”. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Brexit: Time’s almost up.

    Former UK Chancellor George Osborne’s London Evening Standard headlined after the recent Brussels summit: “Stop Your Squabbling or Games Up, Cabinet Warned”. Britain’s negotiating position to this point has been “ambiguous, from a divided place” and must tighten up. Cabinet will be meeting at Chequers on 6th July, to hammer out and clarify its settlement terms once and for all. That and the White Paper to follow, and the EU’s response, will determine whether the clamour amongst the Remainders for a re-run of the Referendum, or for a final say on the outcome in Parliament, will subside or rise to the point where it could bring down the government.

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  • ANDREW FARRAN. The fog of the Irish Sea still overhangs Brexit.

    The House of Commons vote on 12th June has saved Prime Minister May for another day but has also left open the role Parliament might play in the outcome of the EU negotiations. A (definitive) White Paper on Britain’s negotiating terms can be expected after the European Economic Summit meets later this month.

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  • ANDREW FARRAN. Parliamentary report on Section 44: Despite serious democratic deficit, referendum can wait!

    There could be no clearer case for an early referendum than the fact that over half of all Australians today have barriers to nomination under s.44.  In practice, the Report states, some may never be able to overcome these barriers and nominate.  Indeed, 10,779,230 people (46% of the population) were born overseas or have one or more parents who were born overseas – a percentage much the same as may have existed when s.44 was drafted in 1898; and clearly it was not intended then that all such persons should be excluded from the Parliament after Federation.  (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Brexit: Crashing out a real possibility

    The Brexiters deeply distrust the motives of the Remainers who are seeking ways and means of frustrating the process of withdrawal as exampled by the House of Lords’ actions recently requiring that the final draft agreement be submitted to Parliament for its approval and if not approved, that the government be directed to reopen negotiations. While Britain’s final destination is still unclear it might be said that this is no time for Britain and the EU to be still skirmishing over what are essentially domestic arrangements. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Stalemate and Lawlessness over Syria.

    On ABC News Radio (Monday 16th April) Paul Barrett, a former Deputy Secretary of DFAT and former Secretary of the Department of Defence was asked in an interview whether the military actions over the past weekend in Syria by the United States, the UK and France were legal in both international and domestic law.

    He replied that they were not legal. When asked if Australian forces had participated would that have been illegal as well? He again replied that it would have been illegal. When asked further whether if he was still in his previous position as Head of the Department of Defence he would see it as his duty to advise the government of the illegality. He said it would be his duty to do so.

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  • ANDREW FARRAN. Parliamentary inquiry on proposal for a Bipartisan Defence Agreement to govern future procurements.

    Currently the Joint Parliamentary Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade is inquiring into the benefits and risks of a Bipartisan Australian Defence Agreement, as a basis of planning for, and funding of, Australian Defence capability. A comment on this reference by Richard Tanter, based on his submission to the Standing Committee, was posted in Pearls & Irritations on 14th March (“Bad, bad BADA – aka Bipartisan Australian Defence Agreement). A further submission to the Committee, prepared by Andrew Farran, on behalf of Australians for War Powers Reform (AWPR), was received by the Committee on 15th March and is reproduced below. Essentially, it states, procurement proposals and decisions should arise from a sound strategic basis and doctrine, ever contestable as circumstances change.  (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. The Brexit withdrawal agreement for the transition tabled

    The Brexit negotiators have produced a lengthy and complex draft agreement to provide for all procedural aspects of Britain’s withdrawal over the transitional period. It is concerned to preserve acquired individual rights and to enable the institutions (including judicial and law enforcement institutions) to operate effectively meanwhile. The substantive issue of Britain’s trade and ‘community’ relationship with the Union after withdrawal still remains to be settled. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. The ASEAN Summit – lots of hyperbole and some successes

    While the ASEAN summit was a public relations success it demonstrated to all that the only common factor in the group is that they belong to the one region. If tensions with China were to increase it might not last long as a group. With unresolved ethno-nationalist issues at play we cannot expect much change in relation to human rights or principled stances on sensitive diplomatic questions. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Brexit: How to get it done!

    According to a leaked Treasury document, which the Remainers claim was fiddled, the UK would be worse off in any alternative trading arrangement to the present – varying from two to eight percent of GDP over the next 15 years; and that none of the possible third country alternatives, including with the US and Australia, taken cumulatively, could be expected to make up for those reductions. What outcome might ameliorate these losses the most?

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  • The ‘hidden state’ behind the latest batch of repressive legislation

    From the back-reaches of the ‘hidden state’ has come this latest batch of suppressive legislation ostensibly to protect our secrets and to counter surreptitious foreign influences. Instead it will facilitate yet again the tendency of Australian governments to commit to overseas military adventures, sometimes illegally, without  proper Parliamentary consideration and pubic approval. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. A hard or soft Brexit. More likely Black and White

    Letter from London 

    Britain finds itself trapped like a fish with no way out other than capitulation to the best terms it can get – in relation to which the remaining 27 EU members have the upper hand.   (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. India riding roughshod in commodities trade.

    India’s decision on 21 December to slap overnight a 30% tariff increase on Australian imports of lentils and chick peas is just not what a stable, orderly trade system needs. But even so, do we need another discriminatory bilateral so-called ‘free trade’ agreement with yet another country (India) when all these taken together are a recipe for future trade wars as occurred in the 1930s.  (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. The Iranian demonstrations.

    There are few signs that the country is yet a tinder box for a counter-revolution requiring just a spark to set it off.  (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. An alternative perspective for a realistic defence policy for Australia

    In defence terms how do we operate in a region where China will by 2030 have a GDP 25 times greater than ours and whose current military expenditure is already 25 times greater, when the US will be concentrating increasingly on issues of its own elsewhere?

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  • ANDREW FARRAN. Eternal vigilance or eternal military deployments?

    Prime Minister Turnbull recently visited the Philippines to attend regional economic and trade talks attended also by US President Trump. Given the presence of both, what do we know about their commitment of military assistance to their host, President Duterte of the Philippines, to ‘contain’ insurgency in that country?  (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Parliamentary eligibility – did the High Court get it wrong? (Part 2)

    Prime Minister Turnbull now asserts that the onus is on individual Parliamentarians to prove their non-dual citizenship status (a status that previously did not disqualify). How can the onus of proof be put on them when that determination may be in the hands of an external authority? (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Parliamentary eligibility – did the High Court get it wrong?

    The response to the High Court’s decision in the Parliamentarians eligibility case has been largely uncritical and disappointing. While Section 44 (i) of the Constitution allows for a simplistic literal interpretation the Court’s failure to transpose that provision into the social and political context of the present day, and have better regard for its historical antecedents, will create more problems than it has solved and does not sit well with our multicultural and regional realities. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Middle East World Cup – match schedule unravelling – a report.

    The Middle East World Cup should be advancing towards the Finals but the match schedule is in disarray due to disqualifications and suspensions. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Trump is being reckless with the Iranian nuclear deal

     
    President Trump’s decision this past weekend to de-certify the nuclear deal with Iran displays a recklessness almost on a par with his apparent readiness to vaporise North Korea with nuclear bombs. He is in error in citing non-nuclear aspects of the Iranian government as bearing on the agreement. 

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  • ANDREW FARRAN: Korea – could nuclear war come out of clear blue sky?

    A decision about joining in the Korean conflict at any point could be the most critical war decision ever taken by Australia. Parliament should be allowed the time to take it. Whatever, the  decision must not be taken by the Executive alone [Editorial in the Bulletin of Australians for War Powers Reform (Issue #55 of 27th Sept, 2017)]  (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Not the time to deny natural justice to the Kurds.

    Will the revived march of the Kurds for an independent homeland be the time when the Sykes-Picot agreement, which amidst the chaos of the First World War divided the Arab world between British and French influence and control, becomes finally unstuck?  (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. After North Korea: breakdown of regional non-proliferation?

    “The existence of a nuclear threat is not sufficient reason to go nuclear; if it were [these Asian states] would have nuclear arms by now. In each case, the reliability of the US security commitment is the dominant variable”. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. The Korean impasse: transformed geo-politics.

    While in recent weeks North East Asia has been on the edge of a precipice, the likelihood is that the military stalemate will grind on indefinitely. A decisive act by any of the principal parties would lead all into negative territory. Only an unlikely unilateral move by Kim Jong-un to abandon his nuclear/missile ambitions would alter the equation. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. SAS Special Forces to the Philippines – Useful tactical move or first step on another escalator?

    Reports that ISIS is relocating to the Philippines following defeats in Iraq and Syria have raised concerns about its possible spread elsewhere the region. The Australian government has offered support to the Philippines, but it should think more deeply before it slides into a conflict that  develops into something it can’t control (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. We should discuss Pine Gap!

    Whether the leaked documents from the US National Security Agency were revealing, as claimed by the ABC’s Background Briefing on Sunday morning (http://ab.co/2vSXdhD), enough has been known about the Pine Gap facility long enough for some searching questions about its accountability to be well overdue. (more…)