Recent comments by former Prime Minister John Howard is indicative of just how easily conflict situations can engage quickly and end badly in the hands of a ‘strong’ Prime Minister who takes the Howard view that the Executive alone has an unchecked power to commit to war. As Howard’s view on the ‘war powers’ is strongly held by the Turnbull Government his thinking on current conflict situations remains significant. (more…)
Andrew Farran
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ANDREW FARRAN. Afghanistan in the wake of the Pakistan Prime Minister’s dismissal
President Trump must decide soon whether the US should remain in a holding pattern in Afghanistan. As Trump has little personal skin in the war to this point he may decide that enough is enough leaving everyone to ponder what it was all about. Is the recent dismissal of the Pakistani Prime Minister a further complication? (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. The Fall of Mosul and Raqqa opens the door for Australia’s exit from the Middle East
Now that ISIS has for all intents and purposes been driven out of Mosul and Raqqa the time has come for the Australian government to step back and review its diplomatic policies, and military commitments, in that region and focus back on the region of primary concern: East and Southeast Asia and the Southern Pacific. Whatever becomes of Trump himself there is little likelihood of the US reverting to the status quo ante as existing under the Bush and Obama administrations. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. Apparently all not well among our elite Forces
It appears that all is not well between and among our elite military forces, and between them and their hierarchies above, possibly right up to the government itself. After all it is the government that has committed these elites into battle situations leading to allegations of unlawful killings of civilians, in this case in Afghanistan (vide: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-11/killings-of-unarmed-afghans-by-australian-special-forces/8466642) (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. Britain and Brexit: The Starting Pistol Fires!
No amount of political pressure from the EU would force Britain to accept a package it doesn’t want, and vice versa. A closure without agreement because of the Article 50 deadline would be an ‘own goal’ for all parties. Yet we may be seeing another replay of familiar European conflict themes, a century after these were intended to be put to bed. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. More troops to Afghanistan: at best a patch job; at worst perpetuating futility
Whereas economic globalisation might seem for a time to be on the wane, in the military sphere globalisation is on the rise. Regional alliances are being transformed into global alliances. ANZUS has been merged de facto into NATO, and where NATO is persuaded to go so shall we. Australia has been involved in Middle East conflicts – in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria – and is now under pressure to expand its Afghanistan commitment. We should be clear about the purpose and intended outcomes of such commitments. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. Stirring a Witch’s Brew – Selling military equipment to Saudi Arabia.
Australia is busily involved in selling military equipment to Saudi Arabia which is engaged in the civil war in the Yemen whose features exceed in brutality and crimes against humanity those in Syria. Has the government clearly thought through where this might lead, and does the risk of adverse consequences outweigh a few commercial contracts regardless of where Australia might end up in relation to the wider conflict now well underway in the Middle East? (more…)
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The hideous Syrian tragedy
Our armed forces have been deployed abroad opportunistically, even cynically, for decades. This must be avoided in future if they are to serve Australia’s true defence interests in future. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. The Tactical Strike Force fighter to stalk terrorists – really!
Why does the Prime Minister extoll our expensive F-35s as instruments for killing terrorists in irrelevant conflicts when their purpose is to protect the nation against threats of strategic dimensions were they to arise, not now but in the decades to come? (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. Some good news on trade at last.
The WTO’s long awaited multilateral Trade Facilitation Agreement has at last received the required number of ratifications and entered into force on 22nd February. It will expedite the movement and clearance of goods at the border and at airports, and significantly reduce time and costs for traders. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. To TPP or not to TPP? – Trade negotiators need to get back to first principles,
If the compounding mess of the global trading ‘system’ is to be overcome, trade negotiators need to get back to first principles. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. Molan v. Woolcott: The rough and the smooth in regional diplomacy
Molan writes that this sensitive touch in relations with Indonesia is reflected in a long tradition of Australian diplomats putting Indonesia’s interests and the views of Indonesians ahead of our own. Indeed he implies that but for geography Indonesia would be of little or no importance to us at all.
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ANDREW FARRAN. New series. We can say ‘no’ to the Americans.
We should have a very clear and unromantic view of what we conceive to be the ‘national interest’.
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ANDREW FARRAN. ANZUS – Reality check coming soon! Quo vadis series.
Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.
Summary. We need diplomacy of the highest order, not military interventions which, as we have seen, generally make conflict situations worse. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. Under Trump – A moment of truth may be approaching
Indications are that a Trump Administration will expect America’s allies to pay their way to a greater extent than former President Nixon’s expectations were pursuant to the Guam Doctrine of 1969 mid-point in the Vietnam War.
By and large it could be argued that Australia has paid its way – through Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq since that time. All defeats. Will the balance of wider interests be more or less benign in the coming years?
The next year may see the return of ‘nation’ states. Elections in 2017 may bring in a swag of far right governments in Europe. The greatest risk is Marine Le Pen in France which would presage or bring forward the inevitable break up of the EU. (more…)
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ANDREW FARRAN. The legal spat in Canberra – more serious than we may think.
Legal advice on a government decision to go to war.
The legal spat between the Commonwealth Solicitor-General and the Attorney- General is potentially more serious than it might appear.
It is not uncommon that certain actions or proposed actions by governments raise either constitutional or international legal issues of questionable validity. In this context the Governor-General, the Parliament, the bureaucracy, the military and others in the official sphere may seek assurance that what they or the country are being committed to do is legal. Should it not be legal there may be serious personal consequences for them.
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ANDREW FARRAN. ‘We must get out of Syria’
A comment in support of Richard Woolcott’s blog: “Australia’s Shambolic Policy on Syria – Up Shi’ite Creek Without a Paddle. – We must get out of Syria”
Richard Woolcott has stated with clear reasons why we should get out of the Middle East conflict which threatens to broaden and involve us in an expanded war that is not in our interests. One wonders how any times these points need to be made to the government before it acknowledges the folly of its situation in Iraq/Syria. (more…)
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Defence & Australian Strategic Policy Institute – Joined at the Hip
Following on John Menadue’s recent item in which he dissected the funding of Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and the pervasive influence of the ‘Australia/US Defence and Intelligence Complex’ of which ASPI is a part, he questioned whether ASPI as a supposedly independent source of strategic advice could provide the advice necessary to get the balance right for Australia between the US and China.
Andrew Farran argues that it is already too late because of the intertwining threads of our intelligence and military arrangements with the US, now inextricable. We have missed the opportunity to develop a force structure suited to our national strategic situation and interests at far less cost than will be incurred by partnering US strategic operations. In this regard ASPI has lost its original purpose and is not providing the independent strategic advice to government envisaged for it. (more…)