Student-led protesters in Bangkok are publicly demanding a fundamental change that was once merely thinkable – reform of the monarchy
Cameron Douglas
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Thailand’s students revive their tradition of protest
Thailand’s authorities so far are responding relatively calmly to the latest political protests. They need to: like all nations, Thailand has had enough shocks in 2020.
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CAMERON DOUGLAS. Thailand’s future party now past tense
Thailand’s constitutional court has what must be unique powers to decide the fate of political parties – and the shape of national politics. It exercised its powers again last week. The latest party to threaten military-backed authoritarian rule there no longer exists
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CAMERON DOUGLAS. Court bans Thai military opponent
Thailand’s Constitutional Court has banned as an MP the leader of a new and successful political party that opposes the military and the current prime minister. It could turn out to be step 1 in ending his political career.
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CAMERON DOUGLAS. Thailand’s elections – horse-trading, according to plan
The results of Thailand’s first post-coup elections went well for the military junta, following their script for keeping control of government in the name, and name only, of democracy.
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CAMERON DOUGLAS. Thailand’s military erect a democratic facade
Thailand is about to return to popular elections but the democratic facade will ensure the military remains the country’s fourth branch of government. New rules should confirm the 2014 coup leader as prime minister but will leave him relying on a coalition to govern
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CAMERON DOUGLAS. The new Thai Constitution!
Thais will vote in their first post-coup election towards the end of next year, after approving in a referendum a new constitution that will usher in an era of paternalistic democracy.
The referendum was held on Sunday, August 7, but even before the official results were declared one of the supporters of the country’s 2014 coup announced plans to set up a political party that would nominate coup leader and current Prime Minister, General Prayut Chan-o-cha, as the post-election prime minister. (more…)
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CAMERON DOUGLAS. The military coup and the Constitution in Thailand.
Thais will vote in a referendum on Sunday (August 7) to approve, or reject, a new constitution. This will be the post-coup government’s second attempt to implement a new national charter.
The constitution would usher in a form of parliamentary government but the military would retain the power of veto: the system could not be regarded as democratic as the word is understood elsewhere.
For Thais voting on Sunday, the effective choice is between more military rule and more military rule. (more…)
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Cameron Douglas. Thailand and the military junta – an update.
Thailand’s military government got almost all it wanted in the country’s draft constitution, which will now be put to the people in a referendum on August 7.
The next four months, however, will be a rough time for Thailand: the release of the draft was accompanied by a warning from Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha that critics of the government could be detained for one-month for re-education.
Despite the tougher government line, the draft attracted criticism from the Pheu Thai party, the political grouping backed by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. It issued a formal statement calling on people to reject the document.
The draft would give the military junta veto power over the government formed following the return to elections, at this stage scheduled for July next year.
This effective control would be for five years after the formation of a new government and would be exercised through the Senate.
The Constitutional Drafting Committee decided, at the behest of the military junta, that the Senate should be appointed. Essentially, the by the National Council for Peace and Order – the military junta – would select the 250-member upper house.
Six members of the top brass would be ex officio members.
The draft also leaves open the possibility, as the military suggested, that a future prime minister might be an outsider – someone not elected by the people.
It requires that political parties submit the names of three people as candidates for the top position before the elections are held. The House of Representatives would select the prime minister after the poll.
If the House could not agree on a candidate the way would be opened to choose an outsider.
The House would choose the prime minister. The Senate, however, would join in the vote on whether to reject the parties’ nominees and appoint someone else.
In a sign that the junta is determined to that the draft should pass the referendum, it stepped up the pressure on critics this week.
Until now, critics have been detained for several days for what the military calls attitude adjustment. Two Pheu Thai members who spoke out against the constitutional draft were detained over the weekend.
This week, army commander General Teerachai Nakwanich said the detentions were a warm up for the re-education sessions. Troublesome elements must be dealt with, he said.
General Prayut claimed credit for the “training course” proposal. “I initiated the idea myself,” he said. “In the past they [critics] were summoned to undergo ‘understanding’ but when they went back their behavior was unchanged.”
The result in the August 7 referendum will depend on whether the junta or its opponents can get out the vote.
The military government will dominate the debate between now and then. It has easy access to media – it instructs TV stations to provide the airtime – and is using soldiers to spread the message at community level.
Gatherings of more than five people are still banned. And the government will have the threat of detention to control critics.
The struggle over the constitution – and the future shape of governance in Thailand – will be less than equal.
Cameron Douglas is a businessman who travels to Bangkok frequently.
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Cameron Douglas. The Thais do many things well … governance is not on the list.
Thailand is nearing the end of extended efforts to write a national constitution – known as Constitution 20/2, as it is the second shot at putting together the 20th charter since the abolition of absolute monarchy in 1932.
Thais do many things very well – from cuisine to culture to graphic design. Governance is not on the list.
In that same period the country has experienced 21 coups – 12 were successful and nine failed. Thailand has had periods of electoral governance but authoritarian rule is the norm, not an exception.
The result of the constitution drafting and redrafting will be that Thailand will continue to have some form of authoritarian rule. The generals in charge of the country are determined to extend their influence beyond the reintroduction of an electoral system, scheduled for the second half of next year.
Precisely how that will be done is playing out now, in discussions between the Government, led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, and the Constitutional Drafting Committee it appointed last year.
General Prayut took power in May 2014, as anti-government protests paralysed Bangkok’s city centre and government operations.
The protests were aimed at ending what leaders called the Thaksin regime – government by parties backed by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin was a corrupt populist (although Thailand has a history of corruption and even now ranks poorly on Transparency International’s index of perceived corruption).
He was ousted in a coup in 2006. But political parties he backed won four elections between 2001 and 2011.
The protests that blockaded Bangkok lasted six months. But the government would not resign and the demonstrators could not force it out. Meanwhile, people on both sides of the political divide had been killed or injured in the protests.
In May 2014 Prayut, then army commander, broke the deadlock by staging a coup. He stepped in, he said, to stop the violence, end corruption and embark on a process of long-term reform.
The underlying reasons were:
> A desire for the military to be in charge during the inevitable royal transition. King Bhumibol Adulyadej is 88 years of age and his health is poor. Thais revere him; he has reigned since 1946 so most Thais have not known any other king. The transition will be a time of immense sadness and uncertainty.
> The need to finish the job started by the protesters and neuter the Thaksin regime. Thaksin and his political party are relatively quiet but they are still there, waiting for the return of popular elections.
And the army wants to thwart him.
The regime first promised elections for late 2015 or early 2016. The current scheduled timing is July or August 2017.
Elections, however, require a new constitution, as coup makers routinely scrap existing charters.
The new document has to be acceptable to the military. It also has to be supported by the people, who will vote on it in a referendum.
The Government set up a constitution drafting committee in November 2014 but the junta’s National Reform Council rejected the initial draft.
The sticky issue was a provision for a body called the National Committee on Reform and Reconciliation Strategy, which would have been dominated by the military and would have been able to exercise executive and legislative power during times of national crisis.
It was a reach too far.
A second constitutional drafting commission is now due to report to the Government on March 29.
Its first draft, made public in January, would extend the power of the military until the first sitting of a new parliament. It would also allow for a non-MP, an outsider, to be prime minister.
The military, however, wants to be able to wield supervisory power for a further five years. As a parliamentary term would be four years, this would enable them to exercise control into the second period of elected government.
The junta has proposed that the senate be appointed and its members to include senior military and police leaders. The senate would have the power to launch censure motions against the government.
The military would have the power of veto and intimidation.
The regime specifically wants to make sure future governments follow its reform policies.
The junta also suggests each constituency should return three members, with voters choosing only one candidate. This would make it difficult for a single party to win a majority.
The pivotal issue is whether the head of the drafting committee, lawyer Meechai Ruchupan, accepts the junta’s plans.
General Prayut has said he thinks it is likely the committee will agree. If not, he said, he would keep sending the proposals back until they did.
Mr Meechai’s public response to the junta’s plans has been correct but unenthusiastic.
The Government, however, is confident it will get a document it finds acceptable. It is arranging for soldiers and military students to go into local communities before the referendum to explain the benefits of the draft.
And it will allow no organised dissent. The law against public gatherings will remain in force. The only criticism allowed will be in forums the Government arranges.
General Prayut has pledged elections will be held next year even if the referendum fails. Logically, this means the Government would be ready to impose its preferred constitution.
The future holds continued authoritarian rule in Thailand. Situation normal.
Cameron Douglas is a businessman who travels to Bangkok frequently