Cavan Hogue

President Trump wants to invite Australia to attend the forthcoming G7 meeting as a guest  along with Russia, Japan, South Korea and India. Mr Morrison has said he will consider a reply. (more…)

Why do our government and media apply different standards and rules to China and the USA? We are usually told it is because we share values with the US but not with China. Also, China is aggressive and the US is a democracy which respects universal human rights and the rules based international order.

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The current situation is Hong Kong is depressing as both police and protesters blame the other and both engage in violence. There is no sign of reconciliation and the future looks bleak whatever happens. Recession is serious. This report is from a long time resident of Hong Kong who works in universities but prefers not to be identified. It is not safe to stand out in either direction. University staff have to teach on line because universities are closed which makes more work but it is still possible to keep in touch with students –  even  with those holed up in campuses. (more…)

Current protests, including violence, present difficult decisions for the PRC and for Xi Jin Ping. The Hong Kong Government does not seem to be able to control things so what will Beijing do? No option provides a simple solution.  (more…)

Australia’s vote in the UN on the Diego Garcia issue suggests there will be no change in our Government’s approach to foreign policy. (more…)

Our actions and public statements on Huawei and other Chinese investments clearly identify China as a potential threat which logically makes it an enemy. We do not apply the same standards to other countries which have the same technical capability. The US has been pressuring other countries to follow its lead in banning Huawei. How does American pressure differ from Chinese pressure? Our answer presumably would be that one is an ally and the other is a potential threat? This sends a clear message to China which so far has had a limited effect on our trade and other relations but how long will this last? It could be argued that the only reason China would have to be hostile towards Australia is because of our close alliance with the USA.  (more…)

It looks very much like Ukraine will elect a TV comedian with no political experience as president. Since Australia is ruled by clowns at the moment we are hardly in a position to criticise! (more…)

There has been much speculation about what Kim wants and what happened at the summit. When dealing with characters like Trump and Bolton anything is possible but Kim is much more focussed and any consideration of current events should never lose sight of the fundamentals that underlie anything Kim does. He wants to stay in power but is not interested in promoting any ideology to any other country. His foreign policy is therefore essentially defensive. DPRK criminal activity abroad is essentially to make money or knock off people who might be a domestic threat. Threats to other countries are a dog baring its teeth to potential attackers. To attack the US would be suicide. (more…)

The newly elected Brazilian President, Jair Bolsonaro, is a right wing, socially conservative former army officer who is a fan of Donald Trump and is following many of his foreign policy adventures like pulling out of the Paris Climate accords and moving his embassy to Jerusalem. John Bolton is anxious to forge close military ties with Brazil. Bolsonaro has taken measures to replace indigenous rights by commercial agriculture and mining in the Amazon basin which poses a threat to both the people and the environment. It’s nice to have friends in high places. (more…)

Much of the current situation arises from internal conflicts and policies but US policy has nothing to do with democracy and everything to do with US commercial, ideological and strategic interests. Foreign support for Maduro or Guaidó is based on predictable ideological and national interest lines. Domestically the military supports Maduro against widespread unrest and public demonstrations but how long this can last is a moot question. All parties call for peaceful solutions although the US has reserved its options. I look at some of the complexities.   (more…)

The recent clash between Russia and Ukraine is about access to the Sea of Azov especially arising from the Russian bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland.  Russian and Ukrainian claims and explanations are entirely predictable as is NATO’s condemnation of Russia. The Russians claim that it is all the fault of Ukraine for illegally entering Russian territorial waters while Ukraine says Russia is to blame and that it is yet another example of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The legal position is disputed and somewhat murky but Russia is clearly in breach of a 2003 agreement on the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. There have been tensions and minor incidents for some years but. tension has escalated with threats from both sides and even an offer from Turkey to mediate. (more…)

Our current Prime Minister loves P R slogans and seems to believe that they are a satisfactory alternative to an understanding of a world that does not eat meat pies. To his credit, however, he has publicly criticised US trade policy which is at least standing up for Australian interests as he boasts he does. The same cannot be said for the Jerusalem fiasco. He is a member of the Pentecostal church which believes that Jesus will return in Jerusalem so we must support Israel. As he faces elections next year that is probably all that will save him.   (more…)

Do we really need an American ambassador?  Ambassadors are paid to represent their own country, not ours, so what’s in it for us? Do we really need an imperial legate to keep us in line when we never get out of line?  Our media relies on American sources for its news and Rupert Murdoch makes sure we get the right message.  We may expect increasing pressure to join in putting pressure on China to do what the US wants it to do but an ambassador is not really needed for that. We can salve our wounded pride with the thought that a very large number of other countries don’t have an American ambassador either and President Trump prefers twitter to send his messages. Anyway, Joe Hockey has lots of mates in Washington so leave it to him. (more…)

It is hard to know whether to laugh or cry at Trump’s speech to the UNGA which saw him laughed at. He was clearly shocked that the unwashed masses didn’t understand that patriotism was superior to globalism whatever Dr Johnson might say about patriotism. And how could they fail to appreciate the achievements of the Messiah? And the Trumpet shall sound, and we shall be raised! He may be despised and rejected of the rest of the world but they love him in the rust  belt. And anyway we are told the whole world loves a clown, right? Perhaps the General Assembly should pass a resolution expressing sympathy to all those decent Americans who did not vote for The Donald? (more…)

Trump has shown little political savvy and even less powers of analysis. However, it is hard to see the USA as having the moral high ground to justify the hysterical moral outrage generated by Trump’s incompetence when it has done exactly the same thing many times in many places. Syria is a case of double standards. Great powers always promote their own interests irrespective of their domestic arrangements. Americans don’t care about MH17 because lots of Americans were not involved so Trump was not going to raise that with Putin – if he was even aware of it. Australia would be well advised to keep out of this but we won’t because MH17 is important to us.   (more…)

We have two countries and individuals with a well established record of breaking treaties, agreements and promises who tell us they have established a relationship of trust. How reassuring! At least for the time being they have stopped threatening and that is a good thing but no clear definition emerged of exactly what is meant by denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.  No doubt further talks will take place and the optimist in me says this gives hope but the pessimist says don’t start counting chickens. There are many traps and problems to be solved. While we don’t know what Kim is willing to offer nor do we know what he is willing to accept from the Americans and what they are willing to give. (more…)