Cavan Hogue

The peace negotiations on the Korean Peninsula remain fragile and neither the USA or the DPRK trusts the other. Neither side has been specific about what they will accept and the question remains what it has always been. What does Kim want in return for what he is willing to give and what is Trump willing to give for what he wants? Trumps threat to pull out of the meeting and Kim’s equally bellicose talk of war don’t help matters but neither is likely to be stupid enough to put their nukes where their mouth is. The role of China will be vital both in protecting its own interests and as a possible guarantor of DPRK security. The ROK takes a positive and realistic approach but tends to be overshadowed by the others. Australia has vital interests in this process but is not a serious player. This article looks at the options and factors involved.   (more…)

The surprising Malaysian election results show yet again that we shouldn’t put faith in polls and pundits. Despite serious gerrymandering and other bits of nastiness the Barisan Nasional lost the election. The return of Dr Mahathir raises questions about the future. He has promised to hand over to Anwar Ibrahim but hasn’t said when. Najib looks like he is in trouble and may be charged with corrupt practices. (more…)

Australia proclaims the importance of a rules based international order but it is not at all clear what those rules are, let alone who observes them and who doesn’t. Even where there is agreement on what the rule is countries interpret it to suit their interests. There are no countries in a position to cast the first stone. International agreements might reasonably be seen as rule setting but there are few such bodies where every country in the world has signed up and many important ones have not been accepted by one or more of the major world powers. I try to ask here some of the questions  that we should be looking at.  I suggest that Australian leaders reflect Australia as it used to be and not as it increasingly will be. This influences their approach to the world and to rules today. (more…)

Australian politicians and media have been beating their hairy chests accusing and warning China and Russia over their failings. One is reminded of the famous  thundering headline in The Launceston Examiner ‘We warn the Tzar of Russia’ . The question is what is the motive in all of this? Do they really hope to influence these countries or is to please the US? Perhaps the more likely explanation is that it is designed to impress Australian voters? Australia has morphed from the post Vietnam distrust of militarism to almost a warrior cult so they may hope their bellicose bombast will resound well domestically. There is also an implied claim to the moral high ground  – which is hardly unique to Australia. The rhetoric from China and Russia is not much different but we think we are different. This article looks briefly at some of the claims made. (more…)

Russia is the prime suspect in the poisoning but cannot be convicted on the basis of the circumstantial evidence before we get the report of the independent commission. But this article is concerned about what this exercise tells us about Australian priorities. We have joined 28 NATO countries to put sanctions on Russia and ignored the165 countries that did not. We made no attempt to discuss our action with our Asian friends. Where do our priorities lie? Russia is a Pacific power so might it not have been a good idea to discuss things with some  Asian powers? (more…)

By signing up to sanctions against Russia along with 22 European and North American countries Australia has made it very clear to the 100 countries that did not sign up where we think we belong. We seem to be telling our Asian neighbours that Dr Mahathir was right to say that Australia is a European outpost in Asia. We prefer NATO to ASEAN?  NATO has rushed to judgement without waiting for all the information to come in. Certainly, Russia has to be the prime suspect but there are many unanswered questions about the whole matter. Putin is capable of ordering the murder if he felt it was in his interests and Russia has the capability to do it but does it follow that they did? We don’t know one way or the other. After Iraq, British intelligence cannot be guaranteed to be right and so far we have not seen a smoking gun.  (more…)

The ASEAN-Australian summit provided an opportunity for Australia to get close to countries and leaders important to us and to make a public statement to that effect. The media coverage in Australia tended to focus on human rights in Cambodia and Myanmar which was not what ASEAN was here to discuss. However, Prime Minister Najib made an interesting comment about the potential for ISIS to exploit the Rohingya crisis. Discussion on Australia joining ASEAN was mostly about whether ASEAN wanted us but largely ignored whether Australia was in a position to join an organisation that would require it to oppose nuclear weapons and the use of violence against other countries. (more…)

Emperor Trumpus Augustus graciously received in audience today a barbarian chieftain named Flexus Taurus representing the vassal province of Terra Australis.  Flexus Taurus assured the Emperor that Rome had no more loyal vassal than Terra Australis whose inhabitants were devoted to all aspects of Roman civilisation. (more…)

Australian angst about the failure of the US to send an ambassador to Australia reflects the nature of our relationship. Tim Fischer is right to see it as an insult but it should not surprise us.  (more…)

Provoking China to score cheap political points domestically does not advance Australian interests. While most Australians would prefer the US domestic political model to the Chinese, we are not going to change the Chinese system and so must learn to live with it. Complaints about Chinese attempts to influence Australian attitudes are naive.  All countries, including Australia, try to influence the policies of others and China is no different. Our American ally has a long history of influencing other countries clandestinely and of overthrowing democratic governments that didn’t suit its interests. Nobody is in a position to cast the first stone. The government’s unnecessary public attacks on China achieve nothing and pose the risk of threats to Australian interests from China. If you lead with your chin you are asking for trouble.  (more…)

Australian reporting on international affairs leaves much to be desired as recent comments on the Philippines and Russia show.  While the situation in Mindanao must be taken seriously, it is important to understand that only 20% of the inhabitants are Moslems and that most of the island is inhabited by Christian migrants. This doesn’t seem to be understood by some commentators. The threat is not to the island but to the south. Russia also gets  superficial treatment which tends to descend into a goodies and baddies approach instead of a balanced one. (more…)

Australia has followed the hardline advocates in the US in attributing evil actions now and in the future to Russia and Putin in particular. How accurate is this view? One of the few sensible things Trump is doing is advocating better relations with Russia which can only contribute to a reduction in international tension – however much we may dislike his regime and and whatever Trump’s motives. Do we now follow Trump or his opponents on this? Australia is not a player despite being a camp follower of NATO so perhaps the less we say the better. So far Mr Turnbull has kept quiet and hopefully will continue to do so.   (more…)