In a recent Pearls and Irritations article Jon Richardson has sought to make the argument that the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO played no part in Russia’s 2022 invasion but that this was a product of Russian imperialism. Why supporters of this line of argument seek to attribute the invasion to only one factor – Russian imperialism – is a mystery. (more…)
Graeme Gill
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The Russia-Ukraine war and NATO
The persistent debate about NATO’s role in the Ukraine conflict centres on Russia’s longstanding objection to the alliance’s expansion, which Moscow views as a threat. This historical stance is a crucial part of understanding the dynamics of the ongoing conflict, as both sides acknowledge the centrality of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership in influencing the invasion and shaping the geopolitical landscape. (more…)
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Crimea and conundrums
Over recent weeks Pearls and Irritations has published two pieces on Crimea. One by David Higginbottom reports his views of the situation in Crimea following a visit there, arguing that there is widespread acceptance of Russian rule. The second, by Jon Richardson, argues that Higginbottom is wrong, that any pro-Russian majority is a result of the influx of ethnic Russians following the deportation of the Tatars in 1944, and that the future of Crimea should be determined principally by its original inhabitants (the reference to terra nullius in the title). (more…)
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Has Putin been fatally wounded by the Prigozhin affair?
The world watched amazed as the drama unfolded in Russia at the end of last week, with the head of the Wagner Group, Evgenii Prigozhin, openly attacking the Minister of Defence and the military general staff, and some of his troops advancing on Moscow. Although this mutiny was blunted, many observers have been quick to argue that it has fatally wounded President Vladimir Putin and presages his fall. (more…)
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Myths and a Ukrainian settlement
As the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches and an escalation in the conflict on the ground seems likely with the passing of winter, it is appropriate to begin to think about the terms of a possible settlement. (more…)
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A final word on NATO expansion and Ukraine
Mr Jon Richardson has written a piece commenting on some of the points that I made in my critique of an earlier piece by him, and while I think exchanges often reach the point of exhaustion, some of his comments do warrant a response. (more…)
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NATO and the origins of the Ukraine war
A key question for international diplomacy is how to end the current conflict in Ukraine. History shows that for a lasting peace to be achieved, those issues at the heart of the conflict need to be addressed. Where they are ignored, resentment festers and instability is the likely result. Accordingly in thinking about a settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, we need to be clear about the causes of that conflict. Jon Richardson has argued that NATO expansion did not cause the war and that NATO has not been an organisation hostile to Russia. How accurate is this view? (more…)
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Triggers for war: Why and how did the Ukraine war occur?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 burst onto the international scene and has, within a few short months, upturned much of what international politics was thought to be about, at least in the developed West. (more…)
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Putin and Ukraine: the beginning of a wider war?
The only rationale for NATO’s existence is that Russia is a threat. Since the Cold War ended, the alliance has found no alternative reason to be.
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