John Menadue

  • John Menadue. Saving lives at sea!

    To justify its harsh refugee policies, the government has been telling us that their policies are designed to save lives at sea. What hypocrisy!

    And only last week we saw at the ALP Federal Conference, former Labor ministers justifying their ‘turn-back’ policies as a means to reduce drownings at sea.

    Please spare us this charade.

    The objective of our inhuman refugee policies is overwhelmingly political, to be seen to be tough on boat arrivals and win electoral support as a result. The object of the present government has been to deride the Labor party for its alleged softness on refugees and to parade its own toughness on boat arrivals, and particularly towards Muslims. It has been overwhelmingly playing to our fears of the foreigner. It is not about stopping drownings at sea.

    John Howard led the breakdown of bipartisan policy on refugees and deliberately sought to divide the country by the promotion of fear. Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison followed even more unscrupulously. This promotion of fear of the outsider and the person who is different has been exploited to the full and it has paid off politically, to our great shame.

    Boat people were no longer people in great need and distress. For political purposes they have been demonised. They were ‘illegal’ and akin to criminals. Scott Morrison told us that they brought diseases and wads of cash. We were told that they were so inhuman that they would even be prepared to throw their children overboard.

    To justify these disgraceful policies we are now told continually that their purpose was to stop the drownings at sea.

    If the objective was to stop the drownings, we would have been sending ships to rescue distressed people at sea. That is what the Italian navy has been doing. But we send out our ships to stop arrivals, return asylum seekers to Indonesia or detain them off shore almost indefinitely. It is not designed to save lives at sea.

    During the Indochina outflow in the late 1970s and early 1980s there were tens of thousands of refugees drowned at sea. We will never know the number. Thousands were thrown overboard, raped or robbed by pirates on the high seas. But we did not turn away from the plight of desperate people by suggesting that if we helped it would only encourage more risky voyages and more drownings.

    If we were seriously committed to a genuine policy of stopping drownings at sea, one would expect Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison to be nominated for humanitarian awards – perhaps a Nobel Prize each. But when they are honest with themselves they will know that this argument about their policies being designed to stop drownings at sea is disgraceful and dishonest nonsense.

    And by what moral authority have we a right to say that we should stop desperate people taking risks for freedom. If a family is fleeing the Taliban or that death cult IS or fleeing persecution and facing death in Iraq or Syria have we a right to say that they should not risk their lives in flight either by land or sea. Surely it is for them to make the calculation that the risks in flight are less than the risks of staying in their homeland and facing persecution or worse. How can we honestly say that it is up to us to make the moral decision about whether other people should take risks for their own survival?

    The whole campaign against boat arrivals is to politically exploit our fear. It is not to stop drownings at sea.

    Let’s be honest with ourselves.

  • John Menadue. Liberal Party misuse of Royal Commissions.

    Dyson Heydon is in the news again. 

    Several weeks ago he appeared to question the credibility of Bill Shorten as a witness before the Trade Union Royal Commission. He also had unusual things to say about the credibility of Julia Gillard when she appeared before the Commission. 

    See below a repost of an article on the Liberal Party and royal commissions.

    John Menadue

     

    REPOST

    With the Abbott Government there is a pattern of using Royal Commissions to attack former and current ALP leaders. See the links below to two earlier posts on the subject.

    What we really need is a Royal Commission into billions of dollars of tax avoidance by major companies operating in Australia. They are avoiding proper scrutiny.

    John Menadue.

    The Royal Commission into the Home Insulation Program – a ‘dog’s breakfast’.

    What a remarkable thing to say!

  • John Menadue. The Senate saves the day on the Trans Pacific Partnership.

    The Senate saves the day on the Trans Pacific Partnership.

    Often the Senate is seen as obstructive or worse. But it has performed a very useful purpose in helping to derail the Trans Pacific Partnership. Hopefully the TPP will not be put back on track.

    According to the New York Times, our Trade Minister Andrew Robb told the TPP negotiating ministers in Hawaii that the Australian Parliament – read Senate – would not accept the further restrictions on trade in pharmaceuticals which the US was proposing. He was apparently concerned that to accede to the US demands would result in substantial increases in Australia’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and penalise Australian pharmaceutical users. As a result of this breakdown on pharmaceuticals, the Australian government ‘walked away from the negotiations’.

    Perhaps I missed it, but I was surprised that I read this report from the New York Times and not from the Australian media. With a few exceptions, the Australian media has consistently failed to report and analyse the minor benefits that we will obtain from successive ‘Free Trade Agreements’ that Andrew Robb has finalised with Japan, China and the Republic of Korea. The so-called benefits have been grossly exaggerated but the Australian media has largely accepted the government’s version of events. And so we saw little serious examination in the Australian media of the TPP.  https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/blog/?p=3226

    There are many reasons why the proposed TPP was not in our interest.

    The first of course was the US proposal to increase protection from five to eight years for US pharmaceutical companies and their biologic products. It would have added to the high costs of pharmaceuticals in Australia as a result of Big Pharma’s influence on Australian governments in the Australian market.

    Very frustrating was also the fact that it was only late in the day that we were able to have some understanding of what Big Pharma and other powerful US multinationals were attempting with the TPP. This secrecy made it difficult to access the real agenda of corporate America. But with the benefit of some hindsight it is clear now that the US corporate agenda was not to free up trade but to increase protection.

    From the beginning TPP should have been suspect in terms of our national interests. The TPP was designed deliberately to exclude China. The US has been trying to build a trade bulwark against China, our main trading partner. Surely our objective and that of the US should not be to confront and contain China, but to accommodate wherever possible its involvement in the world economy and in world politics. Furthermore TPP did not include Indonesia which by 2050 is projected to be the world’s fourth largest economy. 70% of Australia’s merchandise trade passes through Indonesian waters every year. Indonesia is our most important strategic partner.

    How could the TPP serve our interests by excluding both China and Indonesia that are so important for us? Only two years ago we released a White Paper ‘Australia and the Asian Century’. That White Paper which highlighted the importance of the Pacific region for our future, has been taken off the government website and was clearly ignored in the TPP negotiations.

    Another major concern over TPP was the provision for settlement disputes between investors and countries whereby investors could sue governments in compliant pro-business fora for losses incurred when governments legislate in the public interest. Why this presents such a problem can be seen by what has happened in Hong Kong. Having lost its case in the High Court over plain packaging of tobacco, Phillip Morris is now suing Australia in Hong Kong because of an earlier trade agreement that Australia signed with Hong Kong. What an awful abuse of corporate power in defiance of our national interests.

    There were also other problems. At the end it seems that the US was not prepared to provide reasonable access for dairy products and sugar. This was a re-run of the US attitude ten years ago in the negotiation of the US-Australia Free Trade Agreement. That agreement not only denied proper access for Australian sugar and dairy products it also turned out to be a real dud in helping to promote Australia-US trade. Shiro Armstrong of the ANU has reported that both Australia and the US are ‘worse off than they would have been without the agreement’.At the time John Howard told us what a wonderful outcome it was for Australia

    In retrospect it is clear that almost everything was wrong about TPP – both its objectives and its processes.

    The collapse of negotiations is a welcome outcome but our media hardly noticed. So often it is obsessed with adversarial politics and personalities and has little interest in policy. In the TPP negotiations we had major national issues at stake, but our mainstream media was asleep at the wheel – again.

  • John Menadue. Parliamentary reform and the new Speaker.

    In my post of 12 May this year ‘Democratic renewal and our loss of trust in institutions’, I wrote about our loss of trust in so many institutions including our parliament and political parties. If Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten want to improve public debate and restore some faith in our public institutions the election of new speaker Tony Smith provides an opportunity to change course.

    The most trusted of our institutions are all public institutions; the ABC, the High Court and the Reserve Bank. The least trusted are political parties and the expenses mess triggered by Bronwyn Bishop will add to that lack of trust.

    Trade Unions and business groups rank about equally in trust but they are well down the list of trusted institutions. The Federal Parliament is trusted about as much as our media and not surprisingly with News Corp the least trusted of all of our media.

    The abuse of public trust by Bronwyn Bishop and others must be addressed but there is an unfortunate and consistent clamour by the powerful to undermine parliament and governments. The powerful, the wealthy, large businesses and the media don’t want their powers checked. That is why they target the parliament and political parties for criticism. This is not really surprising as the parliament in particular and our general political processes are the best means to redress power in favour of the powerless.

    Consider the furore over Bronwyn Bishop and the minimal attention to other rorts. Last week the media reported that the privileged and poorly performing sons of Rupert Murdoch would each get $US 27 million a year for four years in remuneration. There is little comment about the widespread and enormous tax avoidance by the powerful.

    Politics is the means to rebalance power in favour of the poor and needy. That is why democratic renewal is so important.

    The main concern I have about Bronwyn Bishop is her abuse of power and using her powers in the parliament in the interests of Tony Abbott and his government. She also had the unpleasant knack of looking down on those that she considered of less merit than herself. Unfortunately neither Tony Abbott nor Bronwyn Bishop has shown any real appreciation of the parliament and its proper role. How galling it was to hear from her on her resignation that she had done it ‘because of my love and respect for the institution of parliament and the Australian people’.

    There are few signs that government leaders appreciate the damage that Bronwyn Bishop has done to the standing of the Parliament. Christopher Pyne said that Bronwyn Bishop ‘had been felled in the most unfair circumstances by politics today’. Tony Abbott added ‘Despite some admitted errors of judgement she has served this parliament, our country, her party, with dedication and distinction over 30 years. She has been a warrior for the causes she believed in.’ But clearly she was not a warrior in the interests and integrity of our parliament.

    Hopefully the new speaker will provide an opportunity for parliamentary and democratic renewal. He has said that he will not attend party meetings. That is important but he needs to go much further. He should consider the practice of the House of Commons in the UK that speakers in future must be nominated at least by a minimum number of members of the Opposition. This ensures a less partisan speaker.

    With the new speaker’s leadership, the parliament should take responsibility and in a quite transparent way for the control of members’ of parliament’s expenses and entitlements. These matters should be the responsibility of the Department of Parliament and not the Department of Finance.

    As I mentioned in my earlier post on democratic renewal, I outlined other important ways to reform and improve the parliament.

    To assist members of parliament to counter the power of the cabinet and the public service the last parliament established a Parliamentary Budget Office. It provides independent and nonpartisan analysis of the budget cycle. It was a good start. But its work is restricted to budgets. Similar offices should be established in such areas as health, defence and foreign affairs.

    The research resources of the Parliamentary Library should also be enhanced. In the development of Gough Whitlam’s policy program the Parliamentary Library was a critical enabler. 

    We need an improved parliamentary committee system where hopefully we can begin to see again the art of negation and compromise. The Senate has shown that improvements are possible. A good start in our next parliament would be an all-party committee to consider ways in which the performance of the parliament could be improved and the power of the executive contained. 

    We need a broad agenda for parliamentary reform. The major party that is credible on parliamentary reform will reap a large electoral dividend. The best way for Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten to prove their bona fides as parliamentarians is to demonstrate by actions how they value the Parliament and use it as their forum and not television grabs, and talk back radio. What a pleasure it would be to see the parliament as a lively forum for debating policy and asking genuine questions to elicit information rather than a means to score political\l points. If only our politicians would seriously endeavour to find common ground by starting on such issues as senate electoral reform, political donations and ending the abuse of power by lobbyists. Leadership by Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten in these areas is the best way to restore confidence in parliament and politics. Don’t talk about it. Do it.

    There is a lack of trust in most of our major institutions. With the help of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten the new speaker does provide an opportunity for the reform of Parliament and the restoration of confidence in our political processes. Those processes are essential for good policy and governance in Australia and supporting the most vulnerable and powerless in our community.

  • John Menadue. Don’t tamper with citizenship.

    The Australian Government has presented new legislation that would enable the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection to revoke Australian citizenship for dual nationals who might have been involved in terrorism activities. There would be no judicial review.

    As a result of an apparent disagreement in Cabinet, the government has deferred a decision on how to deal with sole Australian nationals who might be linked to terrorism.

    This is a massive overreaction for largely party-political purposes – promoting fear of terrorism and feeding anti-Muslim sentiment in the community. Determined not to be wedged on the issue the ALP is yet again in ‘me too’ mode.

    There are good reasons why we should not tamper with citizenship. Citizenship is a critical and unifying national symbol and should not be used to address alleged short-term problems. Acts committed by Australians should be punished under criminal law and if the law is not effective for the job it should be strengthened.

    Some four million Australians are dual citizens. They are a national asset. We are a country built on migration and citizenship is the culmination of that migration process. Citizenship is a key part of nation building and should never be discounted or discouraged. It should basically only be revoked on the basis of false claims in the application for citizenship. We should not be diverted from the centrality of citizenship.

    A key principle of all citizenship is that people of many different backgrounds can become good and loyal Australian citizens. In the present situation that means that Muslims, like others, can become good Australian citizens. It is belief in that principle that holds this country together. If we debase that principle we should not be surprised that many people, particularly young people with origins in the Middle East might decide that they have no future in this country.

    Australians citizens commit many crimes – murder, drug trafficking and child abuse. Should we revoke their citizenship? Why only IS supporters? Each year our police forces are called to intervene in over 200,000 cases of domestic violence. Surely that is a much greater problem than IS. All offences including supporting IS must be addressed with rigour but we must ensure that citizenship is open to all people who have met our criteria.

    Some ministers have sought to strengthen their case for denial of citizenship to dual-citizen holders by pointing out the citizenship revocation legislation in the UK. But the UK is not a country built on migration. We are.

    The government estimates that revocation of the status of Australian citizens who have dual citizenship would affect less than half of those allegedly assisting IS. The numbers would be small but the consequence would be that the legislation would probably prevent these people returning from overseas. This would leave a few of our jihadists overseas to continue their damage. How perverse this would be. It would be much better if they return to Australia and we prosecute them under our laws.

    The government legislation proposes that the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection should have the power to revoke citizenship based primarily I would expect on information from ASIO or other security services. There would be no judicial review. The rule of law would be trashed. What a worry it would be relying on ASIO and Minister Dutton!

    In addition to strengthening our criminal law there are other ways that we can protect ourselves against terrorism or discourage possible recruits. We can withdraw passports to prohibit travel. We can also suspend legal entitlements such as Medicare and social security payments which attach to permanent residence, and not to citizenship.

    As Malcolm Turnbull has said, citizenship revocation should not be a ‘bravado’ issue and used to weaken our rule of law. Government bravado and promotion of fear is making us less safe. It is undermining citizenship.

     

  • John Menadue. Our health system is sustainable.

    To justify an increase in the GST, Premier Baird has joined the long list of conservatives who keep telling us that our health system is unsustainable. Earlier the Treasurer, Ministers for Health and the Commission of Audit warned us in one way or another that the Australian health service is unsustainable, particularly with an ageing population.

    The fact is that it is sustainable. .

    We need to keep modernising Medicare but by almost any international comparison we have one of the best and most sustainable health services in the world. We need to keep our problems in perspective.

    The Commonwealth Fund publishes a regular research report on health systems in major countries. The Commonwealth Fund is a highly regarded private US foundation that compares major systems around the world to stimulate innovative policies and practices in the US and elsewhere.

    In its 2014 report ‘Mirror, mirror on the wall’ it compares the performance of healthcare systems in eleven major countries. The comparisons cover quality of care, access, efficiency, equity,‘healthy lives’ and health expenditures per capita.

    Its overall health ratings for these eleven countries were as follows:

    1. UK
    2. Switzerland
    3. Sweden
    4. Australia
    5. Germany and Netherlands (equal)
    6. .
    7. New Zealand and Norway(equal)
    8. .
    9. France
    10. Canada
    11. US

    On almost all the measures the UK with its National Health Service is a stand-out performer. . Grounded in primary care and with a single payer it has well and truly stood the test of time. The regular laggard in almost all these rankings is the US. It tells us a great deal about the failure of a health service based on multiple private insurance payers. Our private health insurance lobby is trying to take us down this disastrous US path.

    When one looks at the break-down of these rankings, the UK ranks at the top in quality of care, access, efficiency and equity. US ranks last in access, efficiency and equity. What is more, the UK system is the cheapest at $US3,405 per capita in 2011 compared with the US, the most expensive at $US8,508 per capita in that same year.

    As indicated, Australia stands at number four in overall rankings amongst the eleven countries. In particular areas we ranked as follows

    • In quality of care we ranked number 2.
    • In access, we are well down the list at number 8. This reflects in part our high level of co-payments or out of pocket costs. The Abbott Government plans will make this worse.
    • In efficiency, we rank number 4.
    • In equity we rank number 5, which reflects in part our failures in mental health, indigenous health and in remote healthcare.
    • In ‘healthy lives’ we rank number 4.
    • In health expenditure per capita in 2011 at $US3,800 we were the third lowest amongst the 11 countries.

    Another measure of our success of course is our high life expectancy.

    It is quite clear that by world standards we rank quite well. We are behind the UK, but far ahead of the US. . Medicare has served us well but is 40 years old without major review.

    But there are ways that we could improve our health services.

    • Mental health, indigenous health and remote healthcare are major shortcomings.
    • Our co-payments are confused and inequitable.
    • Subsidised private health insurance makes it harder for Medicare to control costs.

    There are many ways in which the efficiency of our system could be improved and costs better managed.

    • Can we afford the funding we commit to IVF and end of life services at the expense say of indigenous and mental health?
    • The split of commonwealth and state responsibilities adds to costs and hinders integration of hospital and non hospital care. We have in reality two stand-alone health systems, primary care and hospital care. There is little incentive for the Commonwealth to improve primary (GP) care in order to reduce pressure on expensive state run public hospitals. We need joint funding and planning of all health care that I have proposed for many years.
    • The remuneration of doctors, pathologists and radiologist through fee-for-service is a perverse incentive which encourages over-servicing and over-prescribing. It also hinders the treatment of long-term chronic sufferers.
    • The government subsidy to private health insurance adds $10 billion per annum to government costs benefits the wealthy and weakens Medicare.
    • Australian drugs cost at least $2b. Per annum more than similar drugs in NZ because of the clout of Medicines Australia in negotiating prices with the Australian government.
    • With its lobbying power, the Australian Pharmacy Guild protects pharmacists from competition.
    • Our health workforce is riddled with demarcations and restrictive work practices. Nurses are not properly encouraged and employed. Yet they hold the system together.
    • The Productivity Commission has drawn attention to great variations in productivity between public hospitals and between private hospitals.
    • There is no accountability in any meaningful way for what the health industry produces particularly in general practise. There is little effective peer review in private hospitals. Where are the service bench marks in patient outcomes, the use of preventive strategies, and integration of care or even waiting times?

    There is clearly a lot we can do to improve healthcare in Australia and better manage costs. But overall, we have a very good and sustainable health service which ranks well against comparable countries.

    Sorry if I keep repeating myself on health care but the myths about our unsustainable health care are recycled time and time again and seldom contested.

  • John Menadue. Militarisation, the new norm.

    I was surprised recently on arriving at Sydney Airport to see the new Australian Border Force (ABF) decked out in their new military-style uniforms. The personnel looked like part of the Australian Defence Force instead of Customs and Immigration officers. There was clearly a new message being conveyed.

    But perhaps I should not have been so surprised as I had seen online only a few days earlier the launch of ABF in Canberra with the mandatory 10 Australian flags backing our Prime Minister, the Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, the Secretary of the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, and the new bedecked Head of ABF.

    Militarisation has become increasingly the norm in Australia eroding more and more of our civic domain.

    Tony Abbott has been running scare campaigns on many fronts particularly against ‘illegal’ asylum seekers and terrorists. The language is clear, we are at war with asylum seekers in their rickety boats. Scott Morrison described Operation Sovereign Borders as a ‘military-led border security operation’. He added that the battle against people-smugglers ‘is being fought using the full arsenal of measures’. Tony Abbott speaks of the continuing war against illegals. Operation Sovereign Border is run by the Navy. The Minister for Immigration and Border Protection refuses to tell the Australian people about asylum seeker boats because the matter is ‘operational’, i.e. we are in a military operation on the high seas..

    Many of us had hoped that at last we were putting to an end the appointment of the Australian military as vice-regal representatives in Australia. But we are now back-tracking on that with General Cosgrove our new Governor General and General Hurley our new Governor in NSW. The military is the norm.

    Our aid programs have been progressively militarised. AIDWATCH has recently reported that our ‘military forces manipulate humanitarian aid in order to achieve tactical and political objectives. While the military can play an important role in the immediate aftermath of a humanitarian crisis, particularly through the provision of transport and creating a secure environment, researchers have found that militarised aid is not effective and can cause harm to local communities and aid workers. It added ‘All Australian government activities in Afghanistan that are related to Operation Slipper – whether delivered by the ADF, AFP or Ausaid – are not aid. At a Senate Inquiry into Australia’s aid program to Afghanistan in December 2012 it revealed almost $200 million in military spending being reported as “aid”. The acknowledgement raises serious concerns about the close relationship between aid and Australian military and police forces in Afghanistan.’

    The militarisation of Australia and our conditioning to it has been most evident in the extravagant celebration of the Centenary of Gallipoli and WWI. The Australian War Memorial has orchestrated an extremely well-funded campaign across the country, including schools, to depict WWI as the starting point of our history, our coming of age. We are encouraged to celebrate this disaster and forget our great civilian and peace time achievements in the decades just before 1900 and in the subsequent decade. There were remarkable civilian achievements; federation, the national parliament, a living wage, rights for women and an Australian ballot. We were world leaders in these and other civilian achievements but we are encouraged to forget them so we can focus on our military history and valour.

    David Stephens, the Secretary of Honest History, wrote in this blog on 20 June this year that we will probably spend up to $A700 million on the Centenary of WW1. He said ‘The Australian spend per death [in WWI] is between five and nineteen times the average spend per death of the next five major combatant countries – NZ, Canada, UK, France and Germany.’ That tells us a lot about how militarisation has become the norm.

    Our foreign policy has become subjected to our military dependence on the US. We are at the beck and call of the US military, usually regardless of our own interests. We do it time and time again – Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iraq again. Malcolm Fraser has warned us that the US is a ‘dangerous ally’. The US has many attractive features but war seems to be in its DNA. As I wrote in this blog on 15 June this year, since its independence in 1776, the US has been at war 93% of that time. It has never had a decade without war. It has launched 201 out of 248 armed conflicts since the end of WWII and maintains over 700 military bases around the world in more than 100 countries. Former President Eisenhower warned Americans about the industrial and military complex in the US. The warning should be for us as well as for the Americans about the militarisation of civilian institutions and values. Our foreign policy has been eclipsed by our mistaken military adventures and dependence on the US.

    There is great danger that the militarisation of Australian history and our ready acceptance of military as the accepted norm will lead us to more and more tragedy. We used to believe that committing our country to war was the most serious thing that any government could ever do. That is no more. We go to war without even the Australian parliament being consulted. Tony Abbott could hardly contain himself at the prospect of sending 1000 ADF troops to far away Ukraine after the downing of MH 17. The military threat of ISIS is grossly exaggerated as Malcolm Turnbull has told us.

    Henry Reynolds in this blog on 18 April this year. ‘Militarism marches on’, warned us ‘The threshold Australian governments need to cross in order to send forces overseas is perilously low. Because there has never been an assessment of why Australia has been so often involved in war, young people must get the impression that war is a natural and inescapable part of national life. It is what we do and we are good at it. We ‘punch above our weight’. War is treated as though it provides the venue and the occasion for Australian heroism and martial virtuosity. While there is much talk of dying, or more commonly of sacrifice, there is little mention of killing and never any assessment of the carnage visited on distant countries in our name.’

    Militarisation is becoming more and more pervasive. We are sleep-walking in dangerous territory.

     

  • John Menadue. A graph on boat arrivals for lazy journalists.

    I have reposted below an article I wrote on 8 December last year pointing out that Tony Abbott did not stop the boats. But the debate proceeds, assisted by journalists who still claim that Tony Abbott stopped the boats. He didn’t. 

    So that my argument can be better understood, see the graph below which reveals quite clearly that there was a dramatic fall in boat arrivals from July 2013 when Kevin Rudd announced the policy that future boat arrivals would not be settled in Australia. We may argue about the wisdom of this policy, but it effectively stopped the boats. There is a current debate about turn-backs of boats, but they were only a marginal influence in stopping the flow of boat arrivals.

    Boat People Arrivals

    Not only did Tony Abbott not stop the boats, but he, together with the Greens was responsible for the dramatic increase in boat arrival numbers after the rejection of the Malaysian arrangement in August 2011. At that time, irregular maritime arrivals were running at less than 300 per month. That increased to over 4,000 in July 2013 when the Rudd Government acted. For further background see repost below,

    Repost from 8 December 2014.

    The data just does not support the never-ending claims by Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison that they stopped the boats. The under-resourced and uncritical media accepts the Coalition’s line.

    I will come to the recent data, but first the evidence is clear that action by the Coalition along with the Greens in the Senate to prevent amendments to the Migration Act greatly assisted people-smugglers and boat arrivals from 2011 onwards.

    The rejection of the arrangement with Malaysia by the High Court started the rot. The High Court decision may have been sound in law, but it had powerful consequences for boat arrivals. The arrangement with Malaysia needed improvement but it did provide guarantees that Malaysia had never provided before. The UNHCR was prepared to actively cooperate. When the High Court rejected the Malaysian arrangement in August 2011, irregular maritime arrivals were running at less than 300 per month. That number increased to 1200 by May 2012, and kept on rising.

    The Labor  Government  attempted to amend the Migration Act to address the problems identified by the High Court but the Coalition together with the Greens blocked the amending legislation. They bashed Malaysia at every opportunity. The failure of the Malaysian arrangement sent a very clear message to people smugglers that boat arrivals would succeed. Boat arrivals were running at over 4,000 per month in July 2013.

    The action by Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison in association with the Greens triggered this dramatic increase in boat arrivals. Both Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison made it abundantly clear that they did not want to stop the boats with an arrangement such as that with Malaysia. They wanted to stop Labor stopping the boats. Their political intentions were revealed by WikiLeaks that reported that ‘a key Liberal Party strategist told the US embassy in 2009 that the more boats that come the better’. (SMH 10 December 2010). Scott Morrison became Shadow Minister for Immigration and Citizenship in December 2009.

    Action by the Coalition in the Senate triggered a large increase in boat arrivals in 2012 and into 2013.

    But did Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison really stop the boats when they came to power?

    The data shows that the downward trend in boat arrivals occurred from July 2013, two months before the Coalition came to power. See data below.

    2013 Boat people arrivals(excluding crew) Boats
    January 2013 471 10
    February 925 16
    March 2455 37
    April 3396 47
    May 3315 47
    June 2715 41
    July 4145 47
    Aug 1591 25
    September 837 15
    October 339 5
    November 207 5
    December 355 7

    Source: Department of Immigration and Border Protection, and Australian Parliamentary Library.

    What largely stopped the boats, although not completely, was the announcement by Kevin Rudd on the 19th July 2013 that in future any persons coming by boat and found to be a  refugee would not be settled in Australia. We may argue about the wisdom of that policy, but it effectively crippled the business case of the people-smugglers.

    In the data above, there are undoubtedly some leads and lags and seasonal factors, but the data shows that the Rudd announcement of 19 July 2013 dramatically cut the number of boats and people arriving by boat. The major turnaround occurred between July and August, before the Coalition came to power.

    As the Abbott Government was not sworn in until 18 September 2013, its policy on boats would also have had only marginal effect on September arrivals.

    So between July and September, people arriving by boat fell from 4,145 to 837 and the number of boats fell from 47 to 15. The trend largely continued after that time.

    Peter Hughes a former deputy secretary in the Department of Immigration and Citizenship put it this way in an article in the Canberra Times in late 2013. ‘The arrival of 546 asylum seekers in October and November 2013 represents only 14% of the number of arrivals for the corresponding months in 2012. This is a dramatic reduction … The announcement of long-term resettlement of refugees in Papua New Guinea and Nauru by the previous government has likely been decisive in changing the decision to travel to Australia on the part of those asylum seekers who have not yet handed over their money to a smuggler. ‘

    The game-changer was Kevin Rudd’s announcement of 19 July 2013 on no resettlement in Australia for boat arrivals. It is also likely that tighter visa procedures on Indonesia’s part would have helped reduce the number of boat arrivals.  In effect the Rudd Government slammed the door although the boat turn a rounds pushed the final bolt home. In other words, if there was any doubt in the minds of people smugglers and asylum seekers trying to come by boat those doubts were removed.

    The Abbott Government capitalised on a trend which the Rudd Government clearly started in July 2013.

    Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison have wrung every political advantage they could from boat arrivals. But the evidence is clear that they helped accelerate the numbers before they came to power and it was the action of the Rudd Government, before they came to power in September 2013 that put boat arrivals on a downward track

    Operation Sovereign Borders has really been quite marginal and would not have been ‘successful’ without the July 2013 decision. Navy and Customs were able to turn a few boats around. This would have been impossible if boats had continued to arrive at 47 a month as they were in July 2013. OSB has been very high profile and very expensive – and offensive to Indonesia. But OSB has not been the main game.

    The game-changer was Kevin Rudd’s announcement in July 2013.

  • John Menadue. The real problem is partisanship, not expenses.

    I have yet to hear anyone who supports the spending by Bronwyn Bishop of $5,000 in taxpayers’ money for a helicopter ride from Melbourne to Geelong for a Liberal Party fundraiser. It is surprising however that, as a member of parliament, she attracts so much attention for this relatively small misuse of public money, but little mention is made of large scale indulgences of companies that provide private travel, yachts, holidays and entertainment for senior executives at the expense of the taxpayer..

    But the real issue at the moment is the damage that Bronwyn Bishop has been doing to our parliament and the lack of trust we all have in our members of parliament. She is a biased and partisan class warrior and quite unsuited to uphold and advance the dignity of parliament. In the current parliament up to February this year she had ejected 309 MPs of whom 304 were from the Labor Party. That bias is intolerable.

    Tony Abbott speaks often of our constitutional roots in the UK parliamentary system. There are some practices in the House of Commons that we could consider. The first is that candidates for speaker must be nominated by at least twelve members of whom at least three be of a different party to the candidate. This ensures a degree of bipartisan support. Second, the speaker resigns from his or her party and does not attend party meetings. Thirdly, the speaker’s seat is not contested at the next election by a member of the opposition party.

    The speaker of the House of Commons clearly sees his or her role as the servant of the parliament and not of the government or the ruling party. There is a long tradition in the House of Commons that the speaker must protect the parliament against the encroachment and power of the king/the government. It is a hard won tradition. House of Common’s speakers have been executed for placing the interests of the parliament ahead of the government. That is why we still preserve the fiction that the speaker has to be ‘dragged unwillingly’ to the speaker’s chair. But that’s as far as the relevance goes these days. Unfortunately, in Australia on taking the speakership, the speaker becomes not a servant of the parliament but of the government and the ruling party.

    Our system has developed differently but there are still things that we could learn from the House of Commons. Most importantly, there are two things. The first is that a new speaker should have the support of both the government and opposition parties. Second, the speaker should never attend caucus meetings of the ruling party. If Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten could agree to such terms in a replacement for Bronwyn Bishop, I would be confident that we could begin to see a renewal of our parliament. Alternatively, if they could not agree, Bill Shorten could propose that he would adopt such an approach in the next parliament if he was able to win a majority. I am sure the public would respond very favourably.

    The real problem is not so much $5,000 for the helicopter ride, but the way parliament has been damaged by a biased speaker who cares little for the reputation of the parliament.

  • John Menadue. What a dreadful week.

    Last week an important public debate on key issues facing Australia was sabotaged by Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey and News Corp. The old scare campaigns were back again. Bill Shorten’s timidity did not help. Paul Keating commented ‘We have a political culture that has the ambition of a gnat’. He is right.

    Instead of a sensible discussion on climate change and carbon pollution, News Corp, via The Australian and the Daily Telegraph picked up a draft options paper on climate change which was being prepared for the ALP Federal Conference. This options paper suggested that the ALP is considering an emissions trading scheme. The paper apparently did not propose a carbon tax and it should be quite clear that an emissions trading scheme is not the same thing as a carbon tax. But that didn’t concern the Daily Telegraph which attempted to derail any sensible public discussion by depicting Bill Shorten as a zombie crawling from the carbon tax grave.

    It is worth noting that The Australian, together with the Australian Financial Review, is sponsoring a summit next month on policy reform. But what hypocrisy it is for News Corp to be sponsoring a summit whilst it is a major contributor to debasing public debate on climate change in Australia as it does also consistently in the US and the UK.

    Of course Tony Abbott couldn’t help joining in the ‘debate’ on an emissions trading scheme and a carbon tax when News Corp, as is the usual practice, gave him the lead in he wanted. We saw again the one-liners. He said ‘We’ve always said … that if Labor came back the boats would be back, the mining tax would be back and now we find that if Labor came back the carbon tax would be back’. He didn’t rerun his old one-liners on Labor increasing the deficit and the debt because his own policies have done just that.

    It was John Howard who first proposed an emissions trading scheme in 2007. Malcolm Turnbull supported Kevin Rudd’s carbon pollution reduction scheme in 2009 and crossed the floor to do so. Almost every reputable economist believes that a market mechanism like an emissions trading scheme is the best way to reduce carbon pollution. It is the lowest cost and most efficient way and one would think that it would appeal to a government that espouses a belief in market mechanisms. Neither News Corp nor Tony Abbott can help themselves in their politics of demolition on climate change. Only the previous week Tony Abbott had stepped up his attacks on renewable energy.

    The public wants something better in public discussion on climate change. The Business Council of Australia, the Australian Industry Group, the Australian Conservation Foundation and the Australian Council of Social Services have established an Australian Climate Round Table. They called for a ‘civil and constructive’ discussion on the subject. Clearly Tony Abbott and News Corp are not interested in such a discussion.

    It is ironic that last week The Australian and Australian Financial Review also announced that they would be sponsoring a summit ‘to fix Australia’ The agenda includes ‘reforms to the federal and state taxation systems that taken as a whole are both efficient and fair’. Yet Neil Chenoweth reported in the AFR on May11 this year the ‘the Australian Tax Office has only one company in its highest risk category for tax avoidance- Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation’. On April 9 this year Michael West in the Sydney Morning Herald wrote ‘Rupert Murdoch’s US empire siphons $4.5b from Australian business virtually tax free’. That may be efficient for News Corp but it does not sound fair for other taxpayers.

    Last week Joe Hockey told us once again that we needed tax reform. But he has already ruled out key reform measures like changing superannuation deductions and payouts. He has also ruled out negative gearing that even the Reserve Bank now says we must consider. The ALP has made some timid proposals in both these areas, but instead of treating them as a useful contribution to a public debate on tax reform, both Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey seized on it an opportunity for attack and ruled out reform in both these areas.

    Joe Hockey said again last week that we needed to reform the GST, but then ruled it out unless all the states and territories agreed. Surely national leadership on tax reform must come from the Australian Treasurer and not run for cover as soon as the states disagree. Joe Hockey shirked his responsibility.

    The only tax change that is now in prospect is bracket-creep which is increasing government revenue.

    During the week the Business Council of Australia president, Catherine Livingstone said

    ‘Within hours of the Treasurer outlining a compelling case for the need for fundamental tax reform and balancing of the tax mix, both major parties began ruling out key elements of sensible tax reform, including changes in the GST. Our political representatives are elected and paid by the community to implement policies that will best serve the country. Their leadership responsibility is to ensure that there is a constructive, well informed debate, leading to implementable outcomes; it is not to undermine the debate in the cause of party-political posturing. Leadership requires being open and honest with the community about the challenges we are facing. It requires the energy and conviction to take on difficult and complex reform imperatives.’

    Catherine Livingstone spelled out very clearly that we have had a very bad week.

    See link to the policy articles that Mike Keating and I have edited on the need for policy reform in Australia. https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/blog/?p=3719.

    As Ken Henry said in the foreword to the series

    ‘I can’t recall a poorer quality of public debate on almost any issues, that we have had in recent times in Australia.’

    Perhaps it is always darkest before the dawn!

  • John Menadue. Refugees- from toxic politics to a humanitarian policy.

    The ALP Federal conference which will be meeting in a week’s time, will be considering refugee policy along with other major issues.

    I have re-posted below a post from 22 June on refugees .  

    Media reports suggest that boat ‘turnbacks’ will be a contentious issue at the conference. There are several issues that I think should be kept in mind on this issue.

    The first is that the dramatic drop in boat arrivals has not been due to turnbacks, but the decision by the Rudd Government announced on 13 July 2013, that any people arriving by boat in future would never be settled in Australia. That was the game-changer. Tony Abbott’s actions were quite marginal, including some turnbacks. These turnbacks had a great deal of publicity but they were not significant in curbing the flow of boats. 

    Second, turnbacks should only be considered as part of a regional agreement that importantly involves Indonesia, Malaysia and the UNHCR. Unilateral turnbacks should be rejected. 

    Third, the issue of turnbacks reminds us again how important it is to build trust and arrangements with regional countries. This will require considerable diplomatic effort and resources. It will take time. Unfortunately, as I mentioned in the post below, we treat regional countries as fair-weather friends and go to them when we have a problem, but turn our backs when they have a problem.  John Menadue

    Refugees – from toxic politics to a humanitarian policy (repost from 22 June 2015.

    The old Irish story tells of the guide who spoke to a lost Irishman. If you want to get to Dublin I wouldn’t start from here.

    The same is true of refugee politics today. We are in a dreadful position at the moment but we need to be pragmatic and determined to get to a humane and generous policy.

    Before looking at practical ways to an improved future for refugees, there are several things that we need to keep in mind.

    First, the Australian public in my view will not support a generous refugee policy if arrivals are seen to be irregular and not under the control of the Australian government, particularly if the arrivals are being determined by people-smugglers.

    Second, the generous acceptance of Indochinese refugees in Australia thirty years ago would not have been possible if we had had the arrivals of boat people that we had in Australia in 2013. At one stage, boat arrivals that year were running at the rate of close to 50,000 p.a. At the height of the outflow of over a million people from Indochina in the late 1970s and 1980s, the largest number of people arriving in Australia by boat was 1423 in 1977-78. From my experience as Secretary of the Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs from 1980, I was very conscious that a large numbers of boat arrivals would have prejudiced the Indochina program. We put a great deal of effort into minimizing and downplaying boat arrivals.

    Third, the success of the Indochina program depended on two related features. The first was that countries of the region would hold asylum seekers for a period for processing on the understanding that, secondly, countries like Australia, the US, Canada and France would resettle large numbers of those refugees. It was called burden-sharing.

    Fourth, the collapse of the arrangement with Malaysia triggered the dramatic increase in boat arrivals in 2012 and 2013. People-smugglers realised that there was no effective Australian counter to their activities. The collapse of that arrangement with Malaysia was the result of the collaboration and joint action in the Senate by the Coalition, the Greens and supported by major refugee advocate organisations in Australia.

    Fifth, Tony Abbott did not stop the boats. As I set out in my blog of 8 December 2014 the decisive factor in stopping the boats was the decision by the Rudd Government on 13 July 2013 that no future boat arrivals would ever be settled in Australia. People arriving by boat fell from 4,145 in July 2013 to 1,591, 837, 339, 207 and 355 in subsequent months. The number had dramatically fallen by the time the Abbott government came to power. The new government attracted a lot of attention with turn-backs to Indonesia but these were really only minor operations with boat arrivals dramatically reduced by then. The decision of the Rudd Government on 13 July 2013 was the game-changer, not the Coalition rhetoric about ‘stopping the boats’. The media seems remarkably willing to accept Tony Abbott’s one-liner on the subject and refuses to examine the facts. The result of all this was Manus and Nauru. What a price we are now paying for the collapse of the arrangement with Malaysia with which the UNHCR was prepared to cooperate and which would have been an important building block in regional cooperation.

    Against that background, how should we now proceed? For further background see article by Peter Hughes,Arja Keski- Nummi and myself.

    The key to an acceptable future refugee arrangement is joint responsibility and burden-sharing with our regional neighbours. Countries of the region have severe problems with irregular people flows as we have seen recently in arrivals from Myanmar and Bangladesh. As co-chair with Indonesia on the Bali process, our foreign minister should have shown good faith by seeking to convene a meeting with affected regional countries to tackle people-smuggling and trafficking. But too often we are fair-weather friends with our neighbours, and show interest only when we have a problem. We say ‘nope, nope, nope’ when they have a problem We need to give high priority to building effective cooperation on refugees in the region, together with UNHCR.   It is in that context that turn-backs should be addressed and not through unilateral action.

    Regional cooperation is the only long-term arrangement that makes sense. But it will take a lot of time and trust. We are not really trying at the moment. We must accept that Manus and Nauru are not sustainable in the future.

    We should negotiate Orderly Departure Arrangements where possible to address problems at source. I would expect that Myanmar would be interested in Australia taking some Rohingya . Sri Lanka would also be likely to be cooperative in our taking of Tamils. In both cases the arrangements would be part of an orderly program.

    We should focus part of our aid and trade programs on regional countries that have persecuted or alienated minorities.

    We should increase our refugee increase to 20,000 plus. At the peak of the Indochina program we were taking about 35,000 refugees p.a., adjusted for our population increase since then.

    We should consider new migration pathways, e.g. 4-5-7 Visas, for vulnerable persons. There were over 800,000 temporary entrants, excluding tourists, in Australia at 30 September 2014.

    We should think again about blanket opposition to offshore processing. The important issue is not where the processing occurs, but is it fair and effective, and is it done in cooperation with UNHCR. Some years ago I was opposed to offshore processing, but I changed my mind in light of the dramatic increase in asylum numbers in 2012 and 2013 after the collapse of the Malaysian arrangement. A consequence of the collapse of that arrangement is that we are now faced with Manus and Nauru.

    We should formally end mandatory detention. It was introduced by the Keating government. It is very expensive, cruel and does not deter asylum seekers. With the near-end of boat arrivals, the numbers who are in Immigration detention has declined dramatically. We should formally end mandatory detention except for detention necessary for safety, security and health checks.

    We should set a time limit for the final processing of the 30,000 asylum seekers who arrived by boat and whose status has not yet been determined.

    The unfortunate souls on Manus and Nauru must be treated with dignity and respect and either repatriated if found not to be refugees or resettled as soon as possible in third countries with the cooperation of UNHCR.

    The key to resolving the political problem surrounding refugees is to insist that vulnerable people that we accept in future must be part of an orderly program. I see that as the best way to gain the support of the Australian community and develop refugee programs that we can again be proud of.

  • John Menadue. Q&A – Why bother with Ministers?

    The ABC has tied itself into a knot in trying to appease the government and get ministers back on Q&A.  But why bother? If ministers aren’t allowed or don’t want to go on the program, so be it. They would not be missed and neither would most members of the shadow ministry.

    I must confess that I am only an occasional viewer of Q&A.  It is not for me. It unfortunately follows the adversarial and confrontational approach that is so debasing so much of public discussion in Australia on important issues.

    ABC viewers would be much better served in my view by hearing from experts in their own fields telling us the prospects on such important issues as climate change, infrastructure, regional relations, inequality, security and refugees. Unfortunately politicians now invariably obfuscate and confuse the issues, and dish out one-liners and clichés.

    For the ABC to suggest that it would shift Q&A from general programs to news and current affairs has been an invitation for editorial interference by the government. It should be resisted. Who is running the ABC, its board or the government? By suggesting that it would shift Q&A to another department it has given Tony Abbott an opportunity to get himself off the hook that he has impaled himself on.

    In the 1960s Gough Whitlam objected to the ABC insisting that on current affairs programs they would not allow an opposition leader to appear unless there was a minister to provide an alternate view. In the name of ‘balance’ the ABC in effect allowed the government, by refusing to have ministers appear effectively vetoed an opposition leader from appearing.  Fortunately, Talbot Duckmanton, the General Manager of the ABC, was persuaded that the government should not be allowed to veto appearances of opposition leaders.

    Neither should the ABC allow the government now to dictate to Q&A. If ministers don’t want to appear, that would be their loss. In most cases viewers would applaud.

    Tony Abbott said that heads would roll at the ABC over the Q&A spat. Where heads should be rolling is at ASIO for its incompetence over the handling of Man Haron Monis. He was a real danger compared with Zaky Mallah in the Q&A audience. Could there have been a series of more serious mistakes than we saw from ASIO, the AFP and other agencies over Man Haron Monis? Despite enormous increases in funding and powers, our security services escape effective responsibility and scrutiny.  Heads should roll at ASIO, but we needn’t hold our breath.

    There is one rule for the ABC and a different one for ASIO regardless of mistake after mistake.

  • John Menadue. London Postcard-some impressions.

    We have just spent three weeks in the UK in Bath and London. But I kept the blog going with the help of friends.

    For years I have largely avoided the UK. When I first visited London in 1963, I was very conscious of social and economic class. It seemed quite unhealthy. Most people knew their place, particularly working people. In 1963 I found it quite a relief to go to Ireland that did not show the same obsession with class. That initial impression in 1963 was followed by the harshness, in my view of the Thatcher years.

    I sensed in my recent holiday that things have changed, at least in the places I visited. There seemed a new social mobility and vibrancy, greater openness and certainly more multiculturalism. The black kids were lively and attractive. There were many East Europeans working in restaurants and shops and they were much more helpful than I recall my experiences of British customer service back in 1963. People on trains were much more courteous than I am used to in Sydney. In short, I have had to revise my views on the UK somewhat.

    I enjoyed the National Gallery more than the Louvre. It was not as overpowering. The art was well selected and the gallery much less crowded. The British Library had a superb Magna Carta exhibition. The impact at the time of the Magna Carta has been exaggerated but it has had a substantial long-term influence around the world.

    With the Greek crisis I was keen to see the Elgin marbles at the British Museum. I hadn’t realised that the British Library was formerly housed in the British Museum where Karl Marx had researched and studied in the Reading Room for years. But the Elgin marbles were my main interest. They were more remarkable and stunning than I expected. I stood in a vast hall with the Elgin or Parthenon marbles on every wall’. And in the next room there were Greek sculptures that I felt were even better than those in the Louvre. .

    Not surprisingly, Gough Whitlam was a campaigner for the return of the Elgin/Parthenon marbles to Greece. The British Museum presents a threadbare argument that the ‘marbles’ in the British Museum ensures even better public access to them than would have been possible had they stayed in Athens! And to add to this threadbare defence of the British, the Museum asserted that they were obtained legally. That might be technically true, but in the early 19th Century when the marbles were removed, Athens was occupied by the Ottoman Turks.

    The early 19th Century was a period of enormous art theft particularly by the British and the French. When considering Greek debt today perhaps the British and French might consider how much they really owe the countries of the Mediterranean that they plundered 200 years ago.

    I have always been an admirer of the National Health Service and in London I found it as good as I had always believed it to be. As a university student in the 1950s, Nye Bevan had been a political hero of mine. The NHS has outlived and outperformed its self-interested critics. It was no surprise that the NHS was the prime feature at the opening ceremony of the recent London Olympics

    In London the public transport system is in good shape and carries an enormous number of passengers each day. We could learn much from the London underground. But despite public transport, London still has major road traffic problems. It illustrated to me again that more and more express and toll roads will largely induce more traffic and will contribute little and at great cost to improving urban living. That is the experience of all major cities but the motor and construction lobbies want us to waste more and more money for their benefit. Good public transport must be associated with effective road-user charges that reflect the real cost, particularly in peak periods that we each impose on other users of the road system. Road tolls and road congestion taxes may be difficult politically but they are essential for urban living in big cities. More and more roads are not the answer.

    Our UK visit was just a few weeks after the general election with the return of the Conservative Party to government with a narrow majority in its own right. The Conservative Party gained 36% of the vote but with the vagaries of first-past-the-post polling, it won 51% of the seats in the House of Commons. The real wipe-out was the Liberal Democrats across the country and the Scottish National Party taking 56 of the 59 seats in Scotland with massive swings. Scotland, had always voted overwhelmingly Labour until this election. The UK Independence Party, which campaigned against continued UK participation in the European Union polled 12% of the vote but only won one seat.

    The Cameron Government may yet reap a bitter harvest from the last election. It has promised a referendum by the end of 2017 on whether the UK should exit the EU. This will give vent to the parochialism that I had hoped the UK had left behind. For the next two years, the issue of UK remaining or leaving the EU will be the focus of political attention and distract from many other key issues. If the UK decides to turn its back on Europe, I think the UK and Europe will be the losers.

    Additionally, if the UK decides to exit the EU, that is likely to trigger a new referendum in Scotland and encourage a Yes vote for Scotland to leave the UK.

    The Scots have little to thank David Cameron for. A major thrust of his recent election campaign, encouraged by his Australian advisers, was to warn the English that if they voted Labour, they could finish up with a Labour Party/Scottish coalition government. Cameron strongly played the anti-Scotland card in England. That deliberate and successful tactic meant that the Conservatives won well in England. The message was clear. Beware of the Scots.

    History may yet reveal that the significance of the UK election was that the UK left the EU and that was followed by a breakup of the UK itself. The Scottish Labour Party is committed to the United Kingdom but the Scottish National Party seeks separation from the United Kingdom. Gordon Brown, a Scot and former UK Prime Minister has warned that as a result of Conservative tactics the United Kingdom may be on ‘life support’

    In London there was understandable outrage over the deaths of over 30 UK tourists in Tunisia. In response and like Tony Abbott, David Cameron described IS as an ‘existential threat’. Clearly it is not. The existence of neither the UK nor Australia is threatened by IS. It is one thing for David Cameron and Tony Abbott to promote fear about the terrorism threat for political purposes. It is much harder to combat the causes of terrorism and IS in particular. Yet it is the policies of the UK, Australia, the US and others in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya that have mainly served to worsen the terrorism threat. The history of Western aggression, exploitation and colonisation over centuries in the Middle East has played into the hands of extremists. Our policies have created anarchy in the region. We side with the despots like Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies. Australia and the UK recruits to IS are transiting through Turkey. But we don’t want to offend Turkey by insisting that it closes these transit routes.

    I was reminded again in the UK that we will not begin to contain IS unless we first accept that our policies in the region have been counter productive to our own security as well as the security of the people in the Middle East. We need to build strong partners in the region and that includes Iran.

  • John Menadue. Is the European Project finished?

    Perhaps the Greek crisis will force a fundamental rethink and Europe will find the way to rekindle again the idealism and hope that gave rise to the European Project in the aftermath of WWII.

    By any means ‘Europe’ has been a remarkable success in social development, human rights, economic growth, the mobility of people and capital – but most importantly of all, a seventy year period of peace. After centuries of war, mainly religious wars, followed by WW1, Hitler, the Holocaust and Stalin, Europe has been at peace.

    The founders of the European Project spoke with great idealism of ever-closer union in Europe.

    But the signs are not good today. This is highlighted particularly by the political and moral gap between the ‘hard-working’ Germans, the ‘lay-about’ Greeks, with France looking more insipid every day. The early success of Europe depended on France to balance the power, strength and even threat of Germany.

    Germany’s reputation and its development in almost every way have been remarkable since WWII. That success has been in part due to its own efforts, but also through the generosity of the US and others in forgiving Germany its sins and its debt. The allies learnt from Versailles after WWI that punishing a defeated Germany only produced more tragedy.

    Unfortunately today Germany shows all the signs of bullying Greece for its mistakes and repeating the mistakes of Versailles.

    In an interview a few days ago with German newspaper Die Zeit, Thomas Picketty called for a major conference on European debt and emphasized that Germany in particular should not withhold help from Greece. Picketty said

    ‘My book (Capital in the 21st Century) recounts the history of income and wealth, including that of nations. What struck me while I was writing is that Germany is really the single best example of a country that, throughout its history, has never repaid its external debt. Neither after the first nor the Second World War. However, it has frequently made other nations pay up such as after the Franco-Prussian war of 1870 when it demanded massive reparations from France and indeed received them. The French state suffered for decades under this debt.’

    In the current fevered atmosphere the signs are not good with the European Union, the European Central Bank and the IMF, together with Germany, bullying Greece to comply with their austerity program.

    The European Project has been littered in recent years by serious mistakes and problems

    • The Euro is a major problem. It is very difficult to envisage how a monetary union can work effectively without a fiscal union. The result has been that Germany and Northern European countries have benefitted from a weak Euro at the expense of Greece and other Southern European countries.
    • There is widespread unemployment particularly in Southern Europe which has been foisted on the Greeks, Spanish and others in the name of budgetary reform and austerity. The message has been clear both explicitly and implicitly to the Greeks – change your policies or we will destroy your government.
    • In the last few days the European Central Bank has cut off Greek access to additional funds and helped precipitate the panic in Greece. The Greek Central Bank has worked in league with the European Central Bank.
    • It wasn’t just irresponsible borrowing by the Greeks that caused the problems. Ther was irresponsible lending by the banks and companies such as Goldman Sacks that helped Greek debt-managers manipulate the debt figures. The financial sector must be contained.
    • Political extremism on both the Left and the Right is today flourishing in Europe. It is no surprise.
    • Quite contrary to what Presidents Regan and Gorbachev agreed, NATO has extended itself eastwards to the Ukraine and the border with Russia with inevitable dangerous consequences. Have Europe and NATO forgotten WWII and the tragedy and losses on the Eastern Front?
    • The ‘Little Englanders’ in the UK are now reasserting themselves with David Cameron proposing a referendum in 2017 on possible UK exit from the European Union and with the UK Independence Party polling 12% at the last general election.
    • Hungary is planning to build a fence along its border with Serbia.

    The fraying of Europe is obvious. It shows not only in political but also has a moral dimension. The Italian Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, recently commented on Europe’s failure to properly address the difficulties of thousands of refugees coming to Europe. He said ‘If this is your idea of Europe, keep it to yourself … You do not deserve to call yourself Europe. Either we have solidarity or we are wasting our time.

    The Germans seem to have ignored the advice of former German Chancellor, Helmut Schmidt, three years ago when he said ‘If we Germans allow ourselves to be seduced into claiming a political leading role in Europe or at least playing first among equals, based on our economic strength, an increasing majority of our neighbours will effectively resist this. The concern of the periphery about an all too powerful European centre would soon come racing back. The possible consequences of such development would be crippling.’ That crippling is occurring today and Angela Merkel doesn’t seem to understand.

    Can we dare hope to see again the moral and political leadership that we saw from people like Helmut Kohl, Helmut Schmidt , Francois Mitterrand and many more. None of them had forgotten the horrors of WWII and set about with idealism and hope to build a new Europe. The current generation of leaders has never known the travail that these earlier leaders experienced.

    This is about much more than Greece and its debts and austerity. But hopefully this crisis will force European leaders to show the courage and foresight that its forbears showed decades ago. The European Project is in trouble, but it is worth renewing. Will the bankers and small-minded get out of the way? With no vision from their leaders, the people of Europe are suffering.

  • John Menadue. The Greek crisis and regime change.

    Current Affairs

    A lot of the blame for the present crisis should be borne by many countries and institutions, but the one group that is least responsible is the present left-wing government of Greece, Syriza.

    The major blame must rest first with the previous Greek governments that mired the Greek people in corruption and cronyism. The second group that must bear immediate responsibility is the incompetence of the Troika – the EU, the European Central Bank and the IMF, led very much by the German Government. The austerity campaign inflicted on Greece has resulted in the GDP shrinking by 25%, accompanied by unemployment of 25%, and youth unemployment of 50%. Such a situation is unacceptable and is likely to result in extreme outcomes. Something just has to give in Greece.

    In this situation there are now suggestions reported by the London Times that ‘Germany will demand the Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras and Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis, resign as a condition for a new Eurozone bailout.’ If this is correct it sounds very much as if regime change is being engineered. Is the object of such a plan to break the Greek Government so that the austerity plan of the northern European countries can continue? Such a plan is outrageous. These austerity plans have caused not only major social problems in Greece, but also in Spain where an election is due in December this year.

    In retrospect, the Euro looks a bad idea, particularly when it links such diverse economies as Germany and Greece. Germany has gained economically from a weak Euro caused largely by the weak economies of southern Europe. It may not be overstating it to describe the Euro as really the Deutsche Mark in disguise. The Euro has given considerable benefits to German business and exporters. In turn, it has made southern European countries less competitive.

    The austerity driven by the Troika with German leadership has resulted in political extremism of both the Left, as in Greece, and the Right, as in France.

    For over a decade sensible economic management in Greece has been frustrated by widespread corruption and cronyism. Tax avoidance on a wide scale became acceptable by previous Greek governments. Urging Greece today to raise taxes to meet its budget deficits does not make a great deal of sense when so much tax is avoided. The crony friends of previous governments have become rich at the expense of the Greek economy and society.

    The banks in Europe and in Greece have behaved irresponsibly with their loose lending. Just as it was incorrect to blame low paid Americans for accepting sub-prime mortgages, so the blame for borrowing by the Greek people cannot be sheeted home to poorly paid Greeks who needed credit to survive. It is noteworthy that in the present negotiations the banks have refused to include debt-relief as part of a settlement package.

    Escalating public debt has been made worse by the irresponsible behaviour of that doyen of international finance, Goldman Sacks. In 2002 Goldman Sacks helped Greece to mask its true debt. Goldman Sacks persuaded the Greek debt managers that they could avoid Maastricht rules on budget deficit limits. The result of the Goldman Sacks device was that $1 b. did not show up in the Greek debt statistics.

    The overbearing attitude of the victors after WWI imposed a severe burden on the defeated Germany which it never forgot, with appalling consequences. In the US, the US Treasury decided to let Lehmann Bros fail to teach the market a lesson. The Troika in northern Europe seems intent on teaching the Greeks a lesson.

    Instead of their resolve to crush the Greek upstart government, the Troika in Germany should look at their own failures and also the long-term future of Europe. What has happened to ‘European values and solidarity’ that inspired Europe in the past? The Troika has a lot to answer for in the current crisis. Hopefully a resolution can be found that respects the rights of the Greek people and places Europe on a continuing path of development.

    Surely in the cradle of democracy the Greeks will want more control over their own destiny!

    See link below for an account by Jeffrey Sachs. He describes the behaviour of the Troika and others as ‘petulant, naïve and fundamentally self-destructive’. He adds that many of Greeks citizens are hungry, with conditions reminiscent of those in Germany in 1933.

    Jeffrey Sachs is Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management, at Columbia University. He is also Special Adviser to the UN Secretary General on the Millennium Development Goals.

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-debt-crisis-how-goldman-sachs-helped-greece-to-mask-its-true-debt-a-676634.html

     

  • John Menadue. Triple-dipping by Big Pharma.

    Current Affairs

    The major pharmaceutical companies in Australia, almost all foreign owned, keep pushing their luck at the expense of Australian consumers and taxpayers.

    In my series on health reform, I pointed to a minimum of $2 b. p.a. that we could save in drug costs if we had a government purchasing system like the New Zealanders. In the last budget the Minister for Health made a few changes around the edges but the high prices charged by Big Pharma will continue.

    It is the same story around the world. Many American consumers find it worthwhile to cross into Canada to buy pharmaceuticals.

    It is no surprise to know that Big Pharma is also highly influential in the secret negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). It is quite a scandal that we are kept in the dark on a trade arrangement which could have quite serious consequences for Australia.

    Apart from the secrecy there are major concerns. As Choice Magazine has pointed out ‘The leaked chapters of the TPP indicate that the agreement may contain an investor-state dispute settlement clause(ISDS), which allows foreign corporations to sue Australia’s government for loss of future profits.’ Dr Matthew Rimmer, Associate Professor at the ANU College of Law, has said ‘Australian consumers have been betrayed. The intellectual property chapter of the TPP is a monster. The proposals in respect of copyright law, trademark law, patent law and data-protection would hit Australian consumers hard’.

    There is major concern that the Australian government could become more vulnerable to law suits from multinational companies and particularly, Big Pharma. As Choice has pointed out, after the introduction of tobacco plain packaging rules in Australia, cigarette companies unsuccessfully challenged the new laws twice in the High Court and lost. Philip Morris then announced its decision to challenge plain packaging again, this time under international law by invoking a 1993 bilateral investment treatment that included ISDS provisions between Australia and Hong Kong.

    And we know from experience, that US corporations have massively disproportionate lawyering power compared to our legal defence resources in Australia.

    Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize winning economist, told us recently on the ABC about the benefits to the drug companies of TPP. He said ‘I talked to all the other trade negotiators involved in the drug provisions [of the TPP] and we know that the US is negotiating for a position that would make it much more difficult to get access to generic medicines and that would drive up drug prices.

    Then there is the problem of tax avoidance. The Australian Parliamentary Library told a recent Senate Committee that in total the top five pharmaceutical suppliers to the PBS in Australia received $2.8 b. in public money. Their total Australian sales were $4.8 b. But research found their combined profits were only $50 m. They paid $53 m. in tax between them, or roughly one cent in tax for every dollar earned in Australia. For a full report by the SMH for June 15, see link here. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pharmaceutical-companies-called-on-to-explain-tiny-tax-contribution-20150602-ghf59s.html

    We are really in triple-dipping country here – high prices for Australian consumers, attempts through TPP to weaken Australia’s bargaining position and widespread tax avoidance.

    I think we are being taken for a ride.

  • John Menadue. Facts on the $11b per annum private health insurance industry subsidy.

    The Minister for Health and Ageing, Sussan Ley has said she wants to canvas community and expert views on PHI (private health insurance).

    If she does consult the community on this issue that will be a welcome change, for consideration of the PHI is usually a private discussion with the vested interests – the PHI industry, doctors and private hospitals.

    I am not holding my breath about real consultation with the community. So much ‘consultation’ is purely token. Furthermore the community is genuinely confused about the range of look-alike policies that are very hard to understand until the patient has to pay. (more…)

  • John Menadue. A night with the Vice Chancellors – the export of education services.

    Current Affairs

    Education services earn an export income for Australia of over $16 b. p.a. Those export services are expected to increase to $31 b. p.a. by 2020 from about 600,000overseas students. Education is now our fourth largest export behind iron ore, coal and natural gas. It is our major services export, ahead of tourism.

    The benefits from our export of educational services have been spread across Australia. It is estimated that each international student spends over $40,000 p.a. in fees and living expenses. Chinese and Indian students represent over 30% of overseas students. The top 10 source countries for overseas students are all from our region. The growth has been extraordinary and is likely to continue.

    This spectacular increase in education exports is far beyond anything that we imagined when we first considered this subject in the Department of Trade in 1984.   As a percentage of total exports they hardly appeared on the graph.

    With our export of education services in its infancy we examined in the department our poor performance in exports generally and how we could respond. We continued to rely on resources booms every decade or so. The inflated dollar had put our manufacturing sector under great pressure. Between 1965 and 1982 we had not created one new job in manufacturing. Our economy as well as our society was insular and inward looking.

    Whilst we had a large services sector in Australia, particularly in education and health it was overwhelmingly focused on the domestic market. Our exports of services were very low in world terms. Yet we had world-class education institutions and the middle class of Asia was growing. We were not taking advantage of that opportunity and we compared very unfavourably with educational institutions in the US and UK who were performing much better than we were in expanding their role in our region.

    In the Department of Trade we could see clearly that we were missing out and we focused our attention on how we could lift our exports from our well-reputed institutions and particularly our universities.

    In addition to seeing the possible economic benefits of expanded education exports, I also saw increased numbers of Asian students as a way to improve Australians attitudes to Asia. As a student at a university college in Adelaide, I had roomed with students from Malaysia. They changed my attitudes on White Australia and relations with our region. My experience with these and other students who came to Australia under the Colombo Plan was I believe an important factor in helping to transform community attitudes about Asia and opposition to White Australia. Until those Asian students came to Australia there was a fairly widespread view of Asians as poor and unskilled and a threat to our living standards. But the Asian students studying here in the 1950’s and 1960’s were young, well educated, spoke good English and not at all threatening.

    So I saw Asian students at our universities and schools as offering both economic and social benefits.

    But to get the ball rolling we had to convince Australian universities about the possibilities of substantially increased Asian students on their campuses. In my autobiography in 1999, ‘Things you learn along the way’, I wrote about my first approach to Australian Vice Chancellors.

    ‘In the department in 1984, we commenced a study on the export of educational services. After we had completed the study, I spoke at a dinner with 19 vice-chancellors of the major Australian universities in the Scarf Room at the ANU about our thinking and plans for the export of educational services. I outlined ways in which I thought we could promote education services offshore and encourage more Asian students to come to Australia. The Americans and British had been doing it very successfully. We were not serious competitors. With the universities under financial pressure, this was a commercial opportunity for them. It would also transform university campuses and, hopefully, student attitudes towards Asia.

    The dinner turned out to be a frost. The vice-chancellors were not impressed with my commercialism. My main critic was Professor Peter Karmel, Vice-Chancellor of the ANU. He had been my mentor from Adelaide University days. We held similar views on most public issues but we didn’t agree on this one. He was upset at commercially exploiting educational services on such a scale. After the dinner, Karmel buttonholed me on my proposal. His concerns also came back to me through an old friend, Frank Hambly, Secretary of the Vice-Chancellors’ Committee: ‘What is Menadue up to in advocating selling overseas educational services in this way?’, he had asked his colleagues.

    You always remember the speeches that don’t go well but in retrospect it helped quicken reform. In the mid-1980s education exports were minimal. They now have grown to $3 billion annually with almost 150,000 foreign students in Australia each year, mainly from Asia. The Australian International Education Foundation estimates that educational exports will be worth $5 billion in 2001.’ (p.245-6)

    In fact in recent years there have been over 600,000overseas students in Australia each year, earning $16b pa for the Australian economy.

    The remarkable growth in education services has not been trouble free. With cutbacks in government funding mainly for our universities, institutions have become too dependent on fee-paying overseas students. In some cases I think academic standards have been compromised.

    But in 1984, when I spoke to the 19 Vice Chancellors, I could not have envisaged the dramatic changes that were to come. The seed I sowed with the Vice Chancellors fell on stony ground but it survived and flourished.

    John Menadue was Secretary Department of Trade 1984-86.

  • John Menadue. How the Australian Bishops and Rome ignored the warnings.

    Current Affairs. 

    We were warned about events such as in the Ballarat Catholic Diocese. But they were even worse than what we expected. Bishops have been warned for a long time but they have ignored the warnings. See article below that I posted on 22 February 2013.

    Bishop Geoffrey Robinson, formerly Auxiliary Bishop of Sydney (1984-2004) has consistently and firmly drawn attention to the damage that sexual abuse was wreaking on individuals and the integrity of the Catholic Church.

    As early as 1997, when launching ‘Towards Healing’, Bishop Robinson called on Pope John Paul II to commission a church-wide study of clerical sexual abuse. He was ignored and increasingly side-lined.

    Geoffrey Robinson has publicly said that he had suffered from sexual abuse. This made him more demanding of the Catholic Church in this area. He was also greatly influenced by the stories he had heard since 1994 when he had been appointed to the bishops’ national approach to what were called “Special Issues”. This subsequently became the Professional Standards Committee to develop procedures to respond to sex abuse complaints. This work culminated in ‘Towards Healing’. I am told by very well-informed sources that in this work on the committee he encountered both scoffing and disbelief from some bishops, including archbishops. He incurred the wrath of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith and Cardinal Ratzinger personally for his supposed disloyalty and dubious orthodoxy.

    Unfortunately for the Church, Bishop Robinson resigned in 2004, soon after he had finished his term on the Towards Healing committee. His resignation was for health reasons. He is now ‘Bishop Emeritus’.

    After his resignation as Bishop, he commenced work on the book which he published in 2007 ‘Confronting Power and Sex in the Catholic Church’. That book highlighted two things. The first was that sexual abuse was an awful but only one expression of the endemic abuse of power generally in the Catholic Church. Second he highlighted that if the sexual abuse crisis was to be effectively addressed, the Catholic Church needed to make fundamental and far-reaching changes. He stressed that sexual abuse was at the core of the Church’s ugly culture and anti-humane procedures. In such a situation he insisted that the process of scrutiny and reform must go wherever the truth leads.

    In May 2008, after the publication of his book, the Australian Catholic Bishops’ Conference issued a statement critical of the book and Bishop Robinson. The statement said

    ‘…The book’s questioning of the authority of the Church is connected to Bishop Robinson’s uncertainty about the knowledge and authority of Christ himself. Catholics believe that the Church, founded by Christ is endowed by him with a teaching office which endures through time. This is why the Church’s Magisterium teaches the truth authoritatively in the name of Christ. The book casts doubt upon these teachings. This leads in turn to the questioning of Catholic teaching on, among other things, the nature of Tradition, the inspiration of the Holy Scripture, the infallibility of the Councils and the Pope, the authority of the Creeds, the nature of the ministerial priesthood and central elements of the Church’s moral teaching.’

    Take that, Bishop Geoffrey Robinson, for telling us some unpalatable truths!

    Before a proposed visit to the US shortly after the launch of his book he was asked by Cardinal Giovanni Re, Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops, to cancel his tour because ‘some bishops in the United States are concerned that you have been invited by some organisations that are not in communion with the Catholic Church’.  Bishop Robinson went ahead with the tour.

    Bishop Geoffrey Robinson has paid a price for telling the truth. In his own archdiocese of Sydney he commented ‘I have been excluded from a number of ceremonies usually performed by bishops. On the other hand, I have been overwhelmed by an outpouring of support from Catholic people’.

    The world Catholic Church and particularly the Church in Australia owes Geoffrey Robinson a great debt for his integrity and courage in the face of clerical bullying. He still has a lot to contribute, perhaps more than anyone else I know in the Catholic Church in addressing its present crisis.

    If only the bishops in Australia and Rome started listening to him way back in 1997 when he went public for the first time on the issue of sexual abuse in the Catholic Church.

    (I should add that I have not spoken to Bishop Geoffrey Robinson either directly or indirectly on these matters. I have only met him once and that was quite briefly and casually six or seven years ago.)

    John Menadue

  • John Menadue. Early tax avoidance: the window tax

    window_taxHolidaying in Bath, I came across an early example of tax avoidance. A window tax was introduced in the UK in 1696. It was believed to be a progressive tax on the assumption that the wealthy property owners had larger houses and more windows. But the tax avoiders found a way around the problem…fill in the window spaces with masonry and avoid the tax even if it looked very ugly. Wealthy property owners don’t often have good taste or care about neighbours. The tax was abolished in 1851.
    Tax avoidance is now largely conducted in secret and the scale of it by such companies as News Corp, Westfield Glencore, Google, Apple and the Big Pharma multinationals puts the tax avoiders in Bath in the shade.

     

  • John Menadue. Catholic bishops keep saying sorry, but avoid structural and cultural reform.

    Current Affairs.

    Catholic bishops keep telling us that they didn’t know and how sorry they are about the horrific events in Ballarat and in many other  parts of the Catholic Church before that. We all know how terrible these events are, but what have the bishops done  to address the opaque governance structures and cultural problems  that have contributed to this abuse. The Catholic Church is still run like an absolute monarchy. Sexual abuse of children is an appalling abuse of power but it is only one form of  abuse of power in a hierarchical and clerical system.In the selection of bishops for example the laity have little or any role at all.It is a rigged system.The laity who would know about sexual abuse are isolated and passive. There is a massive governance problem in the Catholic Church.

    Kevin Rudd said sorry to the Stolen Generation but very little changed. The same is true in the Catholic Church.

    Together with friends, I made a submission to the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse. This submission was on 11 November 2013. It focused on the lack of accountability, the abuse of power, the problems of governance and a clerical culture that contributed to current problems.

    Our concerns were identified earlier by the Murphy Commission which was concerned with the Archdiocese of Dublin. That Commission found that the ‘structures and rules of the Catholic Church facilitated the cover-up’.

    The Victorian Parliamentary Enquiry into the Handling of Child Abuse by Religious and Other Organisations handed down its report ‘Betrayal of Trust’ on 13 November 2013. This report said ‘No representatives of the Catholic Church directly reported the crimes committed by its members to the police’. (p.170) The Committee found ‘that there is simply no justification for this position’. It said that in not once instance of the 307 cases involving the Diocese of Ballarat, Sale and Sandhurst did the bishops report directly to the police. That is extraordinary, even though the church cooperated once police enquiries were afoot.

    The submission to the Royal Commission can be found in the following link.

    https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/religion/html_files/Royal_Commission.html

     

    The submission can also be found on the Royal Commission website under the item ‘Towards Healing issues paper’.

  • John Menadue. Risk-averse business.

    Current Affairs

    The Reserve Bank has pushed interest rates to record lows but business continues to be reluctant to invest.

    Capital investment will fall by a record 25% to $104 b. in 2015/16 compared with what companies expected to spend a year earlier. In the March quarter of this year spending by companies on new equipment and buildings fell 4.4%, the sharpest fall since the global financial crisis.

    In this blog on 30 October last year, see below, I wrote about how Australian business was becoming risk-averse – rather than investing in new ventures it was handing money back to shareholders in share buy-backs and generous dividends. This was at a time when corporate profits were high, but apparently the animal spirits of business was in short supply.

    The Reserve Bank governor, Glen Stevens, has been repeating his frustration about the timidity of Australian business.

    The head of Corporate and Investment Banking at Citi said in the AFR on 21 May this year that the Australian share market has shrunk considerably over the last decade. He said that the All Ordinaries market capitalization had fallen from 1.2% of GDP a decade ago to 0.9%. He commented ‘Australian shareholders focused on getting their money back rather than reinvesting it. … There has been a loss of mojo in Australian boards. There is a conservatism compared to what we see in the US but also a short termism of our fund management industry. … The Australian Bourse is now a capital returns exchange and not a capital raising exchange.’

    It is also significant that a lot of money is being made in property and not in areas such as manufacturing, services, transport, biotechnology and telecommunications. The recent 200 Rich List showed that almost half of our 200 most rich people were in property, retail and financial services. Almost a quarter of the richest 200 were in property. Clearly a lot of money is being made in the low value-added end of the business spectrum. It is often easy pickings for the rent seekers in the property sector to secure favourable zoning outcomes.

    Business will claim that political uncertainty is the problem. And there is some point to that with the lack of credibility in the government’s budget repair policies and the highly political nature of so much of its infrastructure funding.

    But a real problem is the short termism and lack of risk in large parts of our business sector. The frustration of the Reserve Bank is understandable that having pushed interest rates so low, the business sector is not responding with investment.

    Repost: Australian business is ‘too risk averse’ (posted 30/10/2014)

    In August this year the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Glen Stevens, told a Parliamentary hearing that Australian companies were being ‘too risk averse’ by focusing on sustaining a flow of dividends and returning capital to shareholders rather than investing in future growth.

    Research by Credit Suisse shows that non-financial companies in the ASX increased dividends by $5 billion in the twelve months to June 2014 and cut capital expenditures by $7 billion in the same period. This month the Boston Consulting Group in a new report said that ‘Australian companies paid out twice as much in dividends as their global peers in 2014’. It also commented that ‘Australian companies have been increasingly paying higher and higher dividends over the last four years and therefore investing less over time in their businesses’.

    But these higher dividend payouts are only part of the story. Instead of investing in future growth major Australian companies are engaged in large scale share buybacks. Companies like Telstra, Suncorp and Westfarmers have all been handing back money to shareholders in buybacks.

    These trends in increased dividend payments and share buybacks suggest too much of a focus on short-term returns and lost opportunities for growth.

    A major driver of these increased payouts to shareholders have been executive pay schemes in which remuneration packages are linked to short term business performance and share options. The same phenomenon has been occurring in the US. In the Harvard Business Review of September 2014, Professor William Lazonick at the University of Massachusetts said

    ‘Five years after the official end of the great recession, corporate profits are high and the stock market is booming. Yet most Americans are not sharing in the recovery. … The allocation of corporate profits to stock buybacks deserves much of the blame. Consider the 449 companies in the S & P 500 Index that were publicly listed from 2003 through 2012. During that period those companies used 54% of their earnings – a total of $US2.4 trillion – to buy-back their own stock. … Dividends absorbed an addition 37% of their earnings. That left very little for investments in productive capabilities or higher incomes for employees. … The Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager wrote in an open letter to corporate America in March “too many companies have cut capital expenditure and even increased debt to boost dividends and increased share buybacks…. Why are such massive resources being directed to stock repurchases? Stock based instruments make up the majority of the pay of [senior] executives and in the short term buybacks drive up stock prices. As a result the very people we rely on to make investments in the productive capabilities that will increase our shared prosperity are instead devoting most of their companies’ profits to uses that will increase their own prosperity.”’

    The showering of shareholders with increased dividends and share buybacks is not helpful to the long term development of new capital investment and new jobs, but it provides enormous benefits to senior executives with shares or share options.

    It is called CEO capitalism.

     

     

     

  • John Menadue. Is war in the American DNA?

    Current Affairs

    In his book ‘Dangerous Allies’ Malcolm Fraser warned us how we can be drawn into US conflicts that are of no immediate concern to us. We have seen that in recent decades in following the US into wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. He spoke of ‘dangerous strategic dependence’

    The US has a long history of involvement in wars. In the Washingtonblog.com in May 2014, and which was carried by the SMH, it showed the number of wars that the US had been involved in since its independence in 1776. The data was well documented. According to this report, the US has been at war 93% of the time since 1776. It adds –

    • The US has never had a decade without war.
    • The only time the US went five years without war (1935-40) was during the isolationist period of the Great Depression.
    • The US has launched 201 out of 248 armed conflicts since the end of WWII.
    • The US is responsible for 41% of the world’s total military spending. The next largest spenders as a proportion of GDP are China 8.2%, Russia 4.1% and the UK and France 3.6%.
    • The US maintains over 700 military bases or sites around the world in more than 100 countries.

    Take two examples. In 1953 the US ,with British collaboration overthrew the democratically elected Mosadeq government in Iran in the cause of oil interests. Just think how the region might be now if that had not happened. A year later the US engineered the fall of the Guatamalan government in the interests of the United Fruit Company

    The US  has espoused anti colonialism but  the Philippine American War 1898-1903 was a classic attack on a republic that was turned into a US  colony.As American Indians tell us ,Americans speak with forked tongues when it comes to honouring treaties.

    And the same war story goes on today. The US has spent over $3 t in Iraq,made the situation worse and destabilised the whole region.

    In 1961 President Dwight Eisenhower warned the US about the threat to democratic government posed by the military-industrial complex, a union of defence contractors and armed forces. He said ‘In the councils of government we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.’

    The result is that profits and jobs depend heavily on America being at war.

    In 2010, speaking at the Eisenhower Library, the former Secretary of Defence, Robert Gates, a Republican, said ‘Does the number of warships we have and are building, really put America at risk when the US battle fleet is larger than the next 13 navies combined – 11 of which are our partners and allies? Is it a dire threat that by 2020 the US will have only twenty times more advanced stealth fighters than China? What it takes is the political will and willingness, as Eisenhower possessed, to make hard choices – choices that will displease powerful people both inside the Pentagon and out.’

    Add the powerful domestic gun lobby to the powerful military-industrial complex spread across the country and it is not surprising that the US, even with its many admirable qualities, is geared to almost perpetual war and violence. We should stop pretending otherwise.

    It is even more worrying that the belief is widespread in the US that American  actions in the world represent Gods’s will  in pursuit of it’s ‘manifest destiny’.

    The US is a dangerous ally as Malcolm Fraser warned us. Too often we get caught in its slipstream as appears to be happening in the US relationship with China.

    And it is not just politicians who join the US cheer squad. I fear that senior Australian officials and advisers  ,who should know better are also doing so.

     

  • John Menadue. Health Policy Reform: Part 3 – Principles for reform

    Policy Series

    In Part 1 of this series I described the areas in our health sector that need reform. In Part 2 I spoke of the obstacles, particularly those imposed by vested interests in the health sector to protect their own interests by delaying or stopping reform. In this article, I will be suggesting ways in which we can overcome these obstacles to health reform. But make.

    Don’t rush the process

    The political process encourages parties seeking election or re-election to address problems with high political salience – waiting lists in public hospitals, needs among certain groups with chronic illness, and identified funding gaps. The political response is to develop specific proposals, usually involving carefully calculated budgetary costs.

    Such a process, while providing short-term solutions to proximate problems, fails to address the structural problems identified in Part 1 – the fragmented nature of our health care arrangements, inequities, gaps in services, such as dental care, the allocation of resources towards high-cost hospital interventions at the expense of promotion, prevention and primary care, and the distortions associated with private health insurance.

    It also privileges those vested interests outlined in Part 2, who can mobilize resources to block all but the most minor reforms.

    System-wide reform takes time. And it takes open minds. Governments need to realize that even when they can set aside their own financial or professional interests, “insiders” find it hard to imagine any significant departures from existing arrangements. That was a major shortcoming of the Rudd Government’s Health and Hospital Reform Commission. Outside perspectives are essential.

    In order to lift the process beyond immediate concerns, those pursuing reforms need to set out basic principles, and, in a well-managed consultation process, inform the community of options, and invite the community to discuss and agree or amend these principles. Such a path to reform contrasts with the quick-and-dirty proposals which emerge from processes such as the Abbott Government’s Commission of Audit. Rather, reform can draw on the tradition of white paper – green paper policy development and the reform process pursued by the Hawke-Keating Government. The Senate Committee system should also be utilised.

    Guiding principles

    As in any public policy the basic principle should be pursuit of efficiency and equity. Contrary to some simplistic notions, there is not necessarily a trade-off between these principles. An inefficient system is a high-cost system, and a high-cost system generally tilts the balance towards those who have most ability to pay. That is the basic failure of the United States system.

    Economic considerations should extend beyond governments’ own fiscal costs. Rather they should take into account costs and benefits throughout the community. There is no benefit in saving people $1.00 in taxes through Medicare if the result is that they have to pay $1.25 for the same or inferior services in private markets through PHI.

    In efficiency we fall well short as a result of the $10 b p.a. taxpayer subsidy to high cost PHI which makes it more difficult for Medicare to control costs; the perverse incentives in FFS which reward doctors when they treat sick people rather than keeping people healthy; a health workforce which is riddled with restrictive work practices and demarcations and an MBS and PBS which are not rigorously and regularly reviewed. Clinicians are broadly agreed that there are more than 150 services in the MBS which are of doubtful value. There is a rigorous process for getting drugs onto the PBS but little attention to getting some drugs off the PBS. We also need an independent pricing authority like in NZ to reduce the high price for generic drugs and the inefficiencies of drug pricing generally.

    Equity should be concerned with ensuring that income, wealth or personal influence does not give individuals preference in treatment, displacing those with greater needs but lesser means. In equity, we fall short as a result of out of pocket expenses that are amongst the highest in the world; a $10 b. subsidy for PHI which goes mainly to higher income people who can then jump the hospital queue; the plight of people with mental health problems, indigenous people and country people. Dental /oral health care is excluded from Medicare.

    A related principle should be one of solidarity or social inclusion. In social inclusion we are falling short by steadily moving towards a two-tier health system with Medicare becoming a safety net for the poor. We have a two-tier legal system with a safety net called the Legal Aid Service. But that service is not as good as the top tier private offering. Just as a two-tier legal system does not serve the poor adequately, neither will a two-tier health service .All should have access to the same high-quality services. We should resist most strongly the conservative notion that Medicare should be reduced to a safety net for the poor. The same high quality service should be available for all .While people with different means may make different payments, they should all be using the same services. The present “two tier” arrangements, where those with means are more likely to use subsidised private hospitals, violate this principle.

    Within such a shared system, there should be scope for users to exercise autonomy and choice, so long as these do not impose costs on other users. Financial incentives on providers and users should not detract from the principles of personal responsibility.

    Health care services need to be perceived as components of a set of policies promoting good health. In this regard, the community’s health should be seen as an asset worthy of attention in all government policies – taxation, urban design, trade agreements (patents), labour relations and wages policy, social security, environmental protection, sport etc. Public health should be of concern across all portfolios. Health ministers, state and federal, should have the same standing as Treasurers. Unfortunately we are more concerned about health services than health. An obvious example is our failure to address the enormous damage that alcohol, sweet drinks and junk food is inflicting on the health of Australians.

    The government should consider alternatives to fee-for-service remuneration for primary care and other services. The New Zealand Government, for example, pays episodic care by doctors on a fee-for service basis but chronic care is paid on an annualized basis.

    Health programs should have a user focus, rather than a provider focus. The user drawing on different services should not have to confront multiple institutions with their own funding arrangements, records and protocols of care. Policies should aim to integrate and not merely coordinate medical services, pharmaceutical care, hospital care and rehabilitation. Instead of a user focus, successive governments and DHA have failed to break the grip of providers. Our health service is structured to serve the convenience and interests of providers not users.

    Such flexibility should be guided by the principle of subsidiarity. That is, services should be managed at the most feasible local level, provided such autonomy does not conflict with needs for central standards in important areas. We fall short in subsidiarity by neglecting primary and general practice care which is close to the patient. Instead we favour the clamour of the hospital sector.

    Funding needs to be based on a judicious balance between individual (“out-of-pocket”) payments and pooled payments. While a lack of means should never present a barrier to those who need care, there is no reason why those with means should not make personal contributions. The balance between individual and collective funding is one which needs community consultation. There are arguments for a completely free, tax-funded system, and there are arguments for more individual payments where price signals play a role. But the choice needs to be put to the community in a way that explains the costs and the benefits of each method of payment. Most probably the community, presented with an informed choice, will opt for some balance.

    One option to consider is the Nordic model whereby, subject to means tests, all people pay for their healthcare up to a certain amount before their universal system or Medicare in our case, kicks in. The Nordic health systems are effective in balancing individual responsibility wherever possible with patients with high needs and limited means. The very high and unfair costs of out of pocket expenses in Australia must be addressed.

    For that proportion of costs the community chooses to share, this sharing should be through a single national insurer, with the capacity to use its purchasing power to keep costs under control, and guided by principles of ensuring access for those with limited means and covering all against high expenses. As with other high-cost and heavily-subsidised industries, such as clothing and footwear, the $10b plus per annum subsidy to PHI should be steadily phased out. If people want private health insurance that is their right but there is no reason for the taxpayer to provide a subsidy.

    While the government should take responsibility for pooled funding, provision of health services should allow for both government and private involvement. In regulated markets private providers should be assured of reasonable returns on their investments (including their investment in human capital), but they should not be permitted to take advantage of any privileged position in the market.

    All systems of remuneration, to private or public providers, should be subject to full accountability, and all services should be subject to the general principles of competition policy but without promoting competition where it serves no public purpose, such as a proliferation of look-alike high-cost private insurers. Accounting systems should expose all instances of cost-shifting – from Commonwealth to state governments, from governments to individuals, and from present outlays to future outlays. While there may be reasons for costs to be reallocated between different parties, such reallocations should be for reasons of equity or efficiency, and not for budgetary impression management.

    All health care services should be subject to professional governance and accountability, with clear charters of responsibility but at arm’s length from executive government. We really don’t know much about how well doctors perform in private practise. We hear about occasional mal practise but very little about general performance and competence. We fall short because Medicare data which would show, for example, under and over servicing by local government areas, is not available. Such localised data would show areas of unfairness and sometimes abuse. Just as we are now developing a My School data base, we should develop the same for ‘My Hospital’ or ‘My GP Clinic’. Subject to some confidentiality issues, ‘open data’ should be publicly available on incomes and performance across the health sector.

    The related issue of Commonwealth-state relations-the blame game- needs resolution. One possibility is for health services to be administered by joint Commonwealth-state commissions in each state, with pooled Commonwealth and state funding. Tasmania with its small and comparatively aged population could provide the basis for a trial.  This issue is canvassed further in my article Making the Federation work better which was posted on 20 May 2015.

    An efficient national and integrated electronic health system would also significantly contribute to a national health service. It would maintain an up to date health record for every person and make unnecessary so many repeat referrals and examinations. It would improve the quality of care and reduce costs. DHA has failed in this field as in so many others.

    The role of institutions

    Health reform is too important to be left to health departments particularly DHA and bodies with superficial mandates such as the recent Commission of Audit.

    Fortunately the Commonwealth has bodies such as the Productivity Commission, an organisation with not only technical expertise to analyse policy proposals, but also with the capacity to sound out those with policy interests. Most important, it can bring an “outside” view to public policy, addressing questions and options that may be beyond the imagination of “insiders”.

    While the Productivity Commission can bring forth practical recommendations, the questions in health reform are so basic; however, that they require a wider and continuing process before specific issues can be addressed. Questions such as how costs are shared, and how scarce resources should be allocated, particularly for high-cost interventions with minor benefits, involve moral considerations.

    One possibility is to establish a Health Reform Commission composed of independent and professional people to inform and lead public discussion and advise on important health reform issues. Clinicians should be included, but none of the vested interests. The Law Reform Commission established by the Whitlam Government in 1975 is an example of how enquiries and consultations can be conducted with the community in order to make recommendations to government that are well-informed. The Law Reform Commission estimates that over 85% of its reports have been either substantially or partially implemented making it an effective and influential agent for reform. The Reserve Bank is another example of how a respected, professional and independent body can be a leader in public discussion of important issues. A major objective of a Health Reform Commission would be to outflank the vested interests and carry an informed discussion with the community, particularly of the key principles that should drive health care. Ahead of establishing such a commission in government it would be useful to establish an interim group of professional and independent people who can facilitate informed public discussion and provide advice.

    A general remit to the HRC would be to encourage service cost discovery, price discovery and quality discovery, integrity (fraud and abuse) and fairness (access to care regardless of means or location)

    In addition to these general responsibilities there could be specific referrals to the HRC or the interim body, e.g.

    • Ways to phase out PHI and introduce a dental/oral health scheme within Medicare.
    • How to establish ‘medical homes’ in primary care which include both private and public clinics that provide a range of services.
    • Remove perverse incentives for the remuneration of doctors.
    • Reshape the health workforce to the needs of the 21st

    There are various ways to deal with public participation but the basic approach and method is that communities should be consulted to find what they want, and in successive rounds experts should analyse and report back on the costs and consequences of their proposals. For example, explaining that a completely free system would involve higher taxes and may involve greater waiting times.

    One other model is the “citizen jury” – so named because the citizens to be consulted are selected on a random basis, and are informed by professional and independent experts. They could be asked to provide their advice back to government on such key issues as: to what extent do we want to share the costs of healthcare and how co-payments should be reformed. End of life issues could also be canvassed as well as many expensive interventions that have limited effectiveness. These citizens’ juries in health could be important vehicles for an informed national conversation on health, a conversation that we do not have at present.

    I see parts 1,2and 3 on Health Policy Reform as outlined as, hopefully, the means to put the debate on health reform onto a more constructive and pragmatic path. Unless we get our processes working more effectively and particularly how to bypass vested interests, reform will continue to be very difficult. When we improve our processes we can be more confident of addressing the particular policy issues outlined in these three papers.

    Unless we address the issue of power and how and who exercises that power in the health sector we will not achieve worthwhile reform. Power is in the hands of providers. It is not really in the hands of the community, patients or even governments. That is the key issue. We need leadership, institutions and processes to focus on how we overcome this central issue.

    Ministers of Health may be in office but they are seldom in power.

    John Menadue chaired the NSW Health Council 2000 and the SA Generational Health Review 2003.

  • John Menadue. Health Policy Reform: Part 2 – Why reform is difficult. Health ministers are in office but not in power.

    Policy Series.

    In Part 1 on health policy reform I outlined the main areas where health reform is necessary. In Part 2 I examine the reasons why I think health reform is so hard. In part 3 I will consider ways in which the necessary path of health reform can be quickened.

    The major barrier to health reform is the power of providers or at least their assumed power. The most recent budget showed that yet again.

    A succession of Australian health ministers may have been in office but they have not been in power.

    Aneurin Bevan who launched in the 1940’s in my view the best health service in the world knew a few things about health but more importantly he knew much more about political power and how to exercise it in the public interest. He drew on the strong support of the community, a minority of doctors and the majority of nurses. He won the day and not surprisingly the UK National Health Service was the centre piece at the London Olympic opening ceremony in 2012.

    The power of insiders – or the faintheartedness of politicians

    Reform disrupts established arrangements. In general, the longer those arrangements have persisted, the greater becomes the pent-up need for reform, meaning that reform is going to be disruptive to existing interests. By the same token, as arrangements become more entrenched, the more do those who benefit from them feel threatened, and the more political clout they develop to resist reform.

    That resistance is often based on financial self-interest, but it also aligns with a general fear of change and professional conservatism. It is difficult for those who are “inside” a system – be they administrators, professionals or policymakers – to conceive of other ways of delivering services. Institutional inertia is a strong force. And in health care it is easy to lose sight of the fact that delivering services is not, in itself, the objective. That objective surely is serving the community by helping to keep the population healthy.

    One group with a stake in maintaining current arrangements are those who administer health services. Health is a highly technical, large and complex field that is difficult for outsiders to come to grips with. This gives disproportionate power to health administrators on the inside to manipulate ministers.

    “Joined at the hip” with these administrators are much the same vested interests (rent seekers) that batten on the health service and dominate the public debate. These are much the same vested interests who so selfishly and ferociously led the opposition to Medibank in 1974. They are still with us today but in a different guise. The AMA has a long and dubious history in opposing key health reforms going back to its opposition to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme In 1942.

    These vested interests include the AMA, the Australian Pharmacy Guild, the private health insurance funds, Medicines Australia and the state and territory health department bureaucracies. In addition, there is a general “pro-business” push to open up all aspects of health care more to the private sector, particularly pathology and radiology.

    Where possible, financial incentives should encourage practitioners to keep people healthy, rather than to deliver services to the sick. The perverse incentives in FFS come to play particularly strongly when health care takes on a corporate structure, where business objectives such as return on shareholders’ funds displace professional service objectives traditionally associated with medical practices. Businesses operate on the basis of expanding their markets, not on the basis of telling customers they may be over-using their services. The AMA, however, is turning a blind eye to the growing corporate takeover of general practise and the associated vertical integration into radiology and pathology.

    The Pharmacy Guild strongly defends the privileged position pharmacists have gained through political influence. On the one hand the Guild strongly defends the many restrictions on competition enjoyed by pharmacists – prohibition on pharmacies in supermarkets, prohibition on price advertising, restrictions on location and ownership of pharmacies and exclusive rights to sell many non-prescription medications. On the other hand it does little to encourage integration of pharmacy with general practice.

    It is not only in retail pharmacy that Australians are overpaying. Governments are also generous with taxpayers’ money for the mainly foreign pharmaceutical firms who are able to exploit their power in patents. Medicines Australia, the body representing manufacturers and distributors of drugs, has successfully lobbied the Commonwealth to pay high prices for prescription pharmaceuticals. Australia pays top prices: for pharmaceuticals. We pay $2 billion per annum more than New Zealanders pay for equivalent drugs. The last budget failed to properly address this overcharging.

    The private health insurance companies are expensive financial intermediaries, receiving a $10b annual taxpayer subsidy through the rebate, and additional support in the form of the Medicare Levy Surcharge, which subsidises those with high incomes to hold PHI. Not even at the height of manufacturing industry protection were people actually given cash subsidies to buy Holdens and Falcons.

    Private insurers don’t deliver any health services; they are simply high-cost financial intermediaries taking commissions. As I outlined in Part 1, PHI benefits the wealthy and most importantly weakens the power of Medicare to control prices. Now the private insurers are edging their way into general practice. The Managing Director of Medibank Private also reportedly told doctors that private health insurance policy holders should have priority in public emergency departments.

    Government subsidized private insurance is a major threat to health care in Australia. At first sight it may appear to relieve public budgets and to take pressure off public hospitals, but that’s not the way it plays out. It actually sucks resources out of the public hospitals. The remuneration of most specialists in private hospitals is multiples of the remuneration of specialists in public hospitals. And as PHI pushes up costs, governments, still left with funding a large part of health services, find that they become passive players, accepting prices set by private service providers and insurers.

    Yet in spite of this economic danger, and the example of the clearly dysfunctional American system, governments in this country – Coalition and Labor – have been reluctant to take on the PHI industry. Before the 2007 election Kevin Rudd wrote to the industry assuring it that their taxpayer subsidies would continue. The industry never publicly defends its $10 b pa subsidy. It is too ashamed. Instead it lobbies in private.

    In an economy where many traditional industries, from manufacturing through to print media, are facing huge competitive pressure and disruption, health care is seen as one last remaining growth sector, offering easy picking for business.

    Those are the private vested interests. We also have eight state and territory health department bureaucracies supported by their ministers. In a nation where state governments feel that more and more financial and political power is accruing to the Commonwealth, it is natural that they defend their shrinking turf. Such considerations override any concern to see an integrated national system. In response, the Commonwealth is reluctant to stare down the parochialism of the states.

    Reform is possible

    Australian governments have a strong record in economic reform. In the 1980s the Hawke-Keating Government took on vested interests, and negotiated a wide-ranging set of reforms in the manufacturing, transport and financial services industries. Earlier, in the mid-1970s, the Whitlam Government, when it introduced Medibank, successfully stared down the AMA and the health insurers. Although the Fraser Government unwound many of these reforms, the Hawke Government successfully resurrected universal public insurance in the form of Medicare.

    But there has been no significant reform of the health sector since then. In 1997 the Productivity Commission recommended a comprehensive inquiry into health financing, but no government has initiated such an inquiry. Corporate interests have become more involved in health care, and PHI has become embedded once again.

    Governments generally over-estimate the power of lobby groups. They can make a lot of noise – particularly when, as a result of successful rent-seeking in the past, they have accumulated large funds to spend on scare campaigns .But the capacity to make noise does not equate to a capacity to influence voters. Opinion polls consistently show that the public believe Coalition governments are too much influenced by big business, which means reforming governments should be able to gain electoral advantage from standing up to rent-seekers.

    The problem is not just about financial self-interest, however. It is also about the inertia of established practices, and an incapacity of those on the “inside” to imagine any significant variation on current arrangements. Practices such as the separation of pharmacies from medical services, fee-for-service funding, the dependence of private hospitals on private insurance, the separation of medical from hospital services in private hospitals, and so on, have become entrenched in the thinking of policymakers, politicians and many journalists. There is a deficit of imagination, an incapacity to think beyond the present.

    A part of the problem lies in the Commonwealth bureaucracy. Commonwealth Ministers for Health are very dependent on the Department of Health and Ageing, particularly, as is often the case, when ministers are not across the issues and don’t have a clear policy program themselves. Aneurin Bevan showed how important political leadership is.

    DHA is ill-equipped for policy reform. Rather, its objective seems to be to keep the peace with provider lobbies, and to keep the minister out of any public brawl or argument.

    The Department is structured in ways that reflects the interests of providers such as doctors and pharmacists, rather than on the basis of community interests, such as acute care, chronic care or demography. It has expertise in administering existing programs but it has little economic expertise. Fiscal concerns tend to crowd out any consideration of economics.

    In fact the Department doesn’t even effectively integrate the Commonwealth’s own major programs, let alone make any real progress in bridging the Commonwealth and state divide.

    Late last year in its Capability Review of DHA, the Australian Public Service Commission said that the Department ‘is hierarchical and siloed, … the Department does not have a high level strategic policy framework … policy discussions are largely constrained within work silos … there is reluctance from the Department to consider new and changed policy directions’.

    The Australian National Audit Office has also just reviewed the Fifth Community Pharmacy Agreement. It reported ‘Six broad principles and objectives were included in [this agreement] … The Department is not well positioned to assess whether the Commonwealth is receiving value for money from the agreement overall “               

    The Ministerial/Departmental model in health has failed. It is incapable of contesting the power of the rent seekers. The community is effectively excluded.

    Unless the health debate is taken to “outsiders”, away from the insiders – the rent seekers and vested interests– we are unlikely to see significant progress in health reform. The vested interests invariably win out over the public interest.

    Political struggles between the public and rent-seekers are not uncommon, but there are reasons why in health care the public interest has a hard time securing a voice. Most of the public most of the time have little contact with health services. The intense users tend to be the chronically ill (who are reasonably active but do not constitute a majority) and those who are nearing the end of their lives and are not in a position to exert political influence. It is unlike services we all experience such as education or transport, where strong public lobby groups naturally arise. Also, health lobby groups are able to exploit the public’s trust in health care provider’s services – a trust which is well-justified on the grounds of professional competence, but which should not logically extend to trust on financial or political matters.

    With a few exceptions the media does not really understand health issues. Press releases from pharmaceutical firms, pathologists and health insurers and other rent-seekers provide easy material for under-resourced journalists. It is easy for governments and so-called “business interests” to rise scare campaigns about the affordability and performance of government health services.

    The power of vested interests in health must be strongly contested.

    In Part 3 I will address governance and issues of process which are necessary to break through the inertia and counter the power of the vested interests that batten on the health system.

    John Menadue chaired the NSW Health Council 2000 and chaired the SA Generational Health Review 2003. 

  • John Menadue. Health Policy Reform: Part 1 – Why reform is needed

    Policy Series

    I will be posting three articles on health policy.

    This article outlines the priority areas where reform is necessary.

    Part 2 will explain why reform is so difficult but not impossible.

    Part 3 will be about processes and governance issues that are necessary to move us beyond the present inertia, incrementalism and tinkering, with suggestions for policy directions. I will not be proposing specific policies.

    The Rudd-Gillard Government – lost opportunities

    Traditionally, in Australia and elsewhere, Labor and similar governments have been the initiators of health reform. Conservative governments, in general, have opposed or wound back health reform.

    In Australia the Labor Party, guided by principles of universalism, equity and economic efficiency, gave us publicly-funded health insurance – initially through Medibank and then through Medicare.

    In spite of high expectations in health reform, however, in its 2007-2013 period in government Labor really did little more than muddle through. The Rudd Government established a National Hospital and Health Reform Commission (NHHRC), but it was composed largely of health insiders who seemed to be incapable of seeing health policy from a broad perspective and who failed to grasp the basic economics of health care.

    To its credit the Rudd and Gillard Governments had one major policy achievement – plain-packaging of cigarettes, and before it lost office was making progress on other aspects of prevention and public health.

    Indigenous, mental and rural health all remain in a parlous state. Health programs operate in isolation from one another. The funding of health care through multiple public, corporate and private channels results in serious inequities. And, in general, there are administrative inefficiencies and a poor allocation of scarce resources.

    Since 2013 the situation has worsened. The Abbott Government has abolished the Australian National Preventive Health Agency and Medicare Locals, has foreshadowed deep cuts in funding for state hospitals, and put up ill-considered proposals for GP co-payments. The new Minister for Health fiddles around the edges.

    Getting the most from what we have

    In considering health reform, we need to start with an appreciation that we have one of the best health services in the world in both efficiency and equity, thanks to Medicare. But Medicare was established over 40 years ago. There is little coherence or consistency in what we have at the moment. Our health care arrangements could not be called a ‘system’. They have no clear and underlying principles or philosophy.

    As a result of that lack of coherence and fragmentation there is waste in our health care arrangements. When we discuss health care we discuss parts of it, medical services, pharmaceuticals, hospital and mental health. But seldom do we discuss the ‘system’.

    Nurses, doctors, paramedics and others are all working hard and professionally, but they work in silos. I have estimated that reforms would result in a saving of at least ten per cent of our health bill or about $15b to $20b in today’s costs. Abolition of the taxpayer subsidy of over $10b per annum to private health insurance would represent about half of these savings. See my blog of 17 March 2015 on PHI and funding a Medicare dental scheme.    

    But a big waste is in misallocation of scarce resources-a $10b Private Health Insurance subsidy and serious underfunding of mental and indigenous funding. Governments seek savings in public health and primary care – savings which are more than offset by higher needs for hospitalisation and high cost specialist care.

    Seldom do we stand back and ask the central issue: what do we need and expect from a health system? That question should be a starting point for reform.

    The concerns of health policy – a system approach

    Reform needs to cut across programs, and concerned with the following six issues.

    1. Primary care. Primary care has been largely ignored in health reform. It should be the starting point. Early interventions and health check-ups can head off costly and debilitating illnesses. But unfortunately the financial incentives are against primary care and in favour of expensive specialists.

    We have an obsession with hospitals. But hospitals should be the last resort rather than the first. Countries such as the United Kingdom and New Zealand have high quality care, in part because of the philosophy underlying their systems, but also because those systems are grounded in primary care, which is the most efficient and equitable way to deliver health services for all regardless of income. It is where care is best integrated.

    Fee for service (FFS) remuneration in primary care has encouraged “turnstile medicine”, excessive treatment and increasingly the corporatisation of general practice. FFS is a major barrier to reform in primary care. FFS may be appropriate for episodic or occasional care for walk-in patients but it is not appropriate for chronic and long term care, particularly mental and indigenous health care. Our governments have failed in this key area. Increasingly physicians in Europe and elsewhere are taking salaried positions where they are supported in practice medicine in a collegiate environment where the time for team review of patient management is a routine part of care, not something that is seen as an irritating waste of time with poor remuneration. FFS encourages over-investigation and over-treatment. Doctors respond to financial incentives just as other people do and this is not always in the interests of patients.

    A major barrier of course to improved health services through primary care is that the Commonwealth funds GPs and other medical services, other than those in public hospitals, while the states operate public hospitals. There are substantial savings in keeping patients out of hospitals but with different funding steams there are few incentives to do so. In fact, when the Commonwealth is more concerned with its fiscal balance than with sound economics, it has every temptation to skimp on primary care, essentially imposing higher costs on the states and poorer health outcomes on the community. The Commonwealth’s fiscal obsession has outweighed any sense of economic responsibility.

    The trends in General Practise are disturbing. In 1999 45 % of doctors were GP’s it is now less than 38%.The earnings of GP’s are substantially less than specialists. It is more attractive financially for medical graduate to become specialists

    In this blog, John Dwyer (See ‘Commentary Part 1‘ and ‘Health Policy Reform Part 2‘) argued persuasively for an integrated primary care system in Australia. It would provide a ‘medical home’ for a wide range of patients with diverse health problems.

    2.  Workforce. Health is the largest and fastest growing sector of the Australian economy. Its structure and workforce are riddled with 19th Century demarcations and restrictive work practices. For example there are several hundred nurse practitioners in Australia when there should be thousands. About 10 per cent of normal births in Australia are delivered by midwives: in New Zealand that figure is over 90 per cent.

    We don’t have a shortage of doctors so much as a misallocation of doctors. Nurses, allied health workers and ambulance staff are denied opportunities to upgrade and realise their professional potential and improve services.

    Pharmacies should be providing more basic health services for the community and should be active partners with doctors in primary care.

    As Minister for Health, Nicola Roxon enabled some nurse practitioners and midwives to access the Medical Benefit Scheme but the access was quite minor. The MBS can be the lever for major workforce renewal.

    It is quite remarkable that we have endless talk about the need for workforce reform everywhere but in the health sector. The restrictive work practices and demarcations in the health sector are a disgrace. Jim McGinty will be writing further on health workforce reform in this policy series.

    3. Program structures. If we go to a garage to service our car we expect the garage to take responsibility for the whole car. But not in health. We have to go to different professions for different services, suppliers and interest groups all with their separate billing and regulations. Health services are structured and funded around providers – medical services by doctors, pharmaceuticals through big Pharma and the Pharmacy Guild, and hospitals through state governments and private agencies. The Department of Health and Ageing reflects this provider focus rather than a focus on consumers.

    Such a provider-based structure, rather than a user- or customer-based structure, is reminiscent of corporate structures abandoned in the private sector a half-century ago, and is inconsistent with the “outcomes” focus of public sector reforms of the 1980s. Yet it survives in the health sector with the only institutional recognition of consumers is through the Health Consumers Forum of Australia, a body funded by the Commonwealth and which seems more like a marketing arm of DHA than a group representative of consumer interests. Patients are invariably last in the queue.

    We need to progressively change the focus of health programs to serve the community rather than providers. One possible structure would be around types of users – acute, chronic and occasional. It would help reduce the competition between different provider areas for limited resources. DHA shows little interest in consumers but together with the Minister always seems to have an open door for the rent seekers such as the Pharmacy Guild and the AMA.

    4. Funding. Funding of health services is a mess, resulting in serious inequities, high administrative costs, and misallocation of scarce resources. Some services, financed either through private health insurance or Medicare, are free at the point of delivery, while others can leave consumers with massive out-of-pocket expenses.

    We have some of the highest co-payments in the developed world. They also lack rhyme or reason. ” with the level of government subsidies varying enormously. Some co-payment arrangements work on a safety-net basis, while others, such as for psychologists, leave the consumer bearing open-ended risks. The Abbott Government’s “reforms”, if implemented, would make the situation worse. Medical and pharmaceutical co-payments have little in common, and dental services are much more poorly funded than medical services. The safety nets are unfair and lead to abuse.

    Persons on high incomes should pay more for health services through efficient and defensible co-payments. A “universal” service does not necessarily mean it should be free. Subject to a means test, there needs to be more discipline by consumers in their use of health services. There is no sign that the Commonwealth is concerned about the problem however, even though most other countries have better models to emulate. The Nordic countries, for example, insist on a single public funder and universality but with efficient and equitable co-payments. Jennifer Doggett will be writing further about co-payments in this policy series.

    The other great funding distortion in Australian health care arrangements is private health insurance (PHI) – essentially a high-cost mechanism which allows some, particularly those with high incomes, to jump the queue for hospital services, thus worsening waiting times in public hospitals by diverting resources to private hospitals, contrary to the claim that it takes pressure off public hospitals. PHI penalises country people because there are few private hospitals in the bush. Australia’s arrangements also mean that private and public hospitals operate on different funding streams and with little integration of services.

    The government, through means testing rebates for PHI, has removed some inequities, but PHI remains a costly and inequitable way to do what the tax system and Medicare do much better. Also, PHI is administratively inefficient with bureaucratic costs including profits about three times higher than Medicare.

    Private gap insurance promoted by PHI has facilitated enormous increases in specialist fees. Most importantly, the expansion of PHI progressively weakens the ability of Medicare to control costs. The evidence world-wide is clear that countries with significant PHI have high costs without any better health outcomes.

    The stand-out example of PHI causing high costs and poor outcomes is the United States. President Obama may have substantially achieved universal coverage, but PHI with its lack of cost control will ultimately cripple and finally destroy his reforms. Warren Buffett has described PHI companies as the “tape worm” in the US health sector.

    The Commonwealth already has a sound model of a single payer operated through the Department of Veterans Affairs – a model which retains the strong control of a single payer accountable to the community whilst allowing private practise involvement in service delivery.

    The Commonwealth has failed to understand the damage that PHI is already doing in Australia. PHI is a Damocles sword hanging over Medicare. We must assert the key importance of a single public funder.

    The $10b plus per annum taxpayer subsidy to PHI is more than would be required to fund a Medicare dental/oral health scheme and significantly improve the funding of mental, indigenous and rural health

    This subsidy of $10b is the most critical issue in health care. The nettle must be grasped!

    5. Defining Medicare. This great Labor monument needs a review. Medicare has become a passive but efficient funding mechanism, providing a partial subsidy for certain health expenses, rather than the public insurer it was intended to be. After all, it is still called the “health insurance commission”, but it is nothing of the sort, and it is not even within the health portfolio.

    Medicare has a remarkable database which should be used to highlight and inform policy concerning over and underutilisation of services across the country. Why for example do rates of caesarean section vary enormously across the country and why are Australian rates very high in world rankings? There are many other large variations in clinical procedures that must be made public and explained. Medical services should be subject to the same rigorous cost-benefit examination as pharmaceutical services. Medicare is not doing it.

    Even more potential lies in the use of that database for research into efficacy of treatments. This was an intention of Medicare’s designers, who envisioned the day when computing power could extract clinical information from that database. That day has arrived, but the government, although willing to invest billions in some areas of medical research, shows no interest in using this valuable resource, or in the integration of MBS and PBS data which would provide rigorous pharmaceutical evaluation at a tiny fraction of the cost of clinical trials.

    6. Cost and blame shifting. Governments, more concerned with their fiscal balances than with economic efficiency, try to shift costs on to other governments, Commonwealth to state and vice versa, on to individuals, or on to future generations for example in neglect of public health. Attempts to resolve the Commonwealth/state blame and cost shifting have been largely unsuccessful and certainly expensive with the Commonwealth succumbing to state political pressure without fixing the lack of integration.

    In Part 2 I will be looking at the major obstacles to health reform, including the influence of the vested interests who are concerned to protect their own territory rather than serve the public interest.

    John Menadue chaired the Report of the NSW Health Council 2000 and the SA Generational Health Review in 2003. 

  • John Menadue. Failed policies have made us a larger terrorism target.

    Current Affairs. 

    The major drivers of Islamic terrorism are a century of Western policies in the Middle East that have colonised, expropriated and attacked the people of the Middle East. Those suffering from these policies are overwhelmingly Muslim. Add to that the continued and current meddling of Western powers in the Middle East and it is not surprising that we have a surge of young Muslim misfits who have a sense of resentment and grievance against the West.

    But we want to avoid the truth about the awful consequences of what we have inflicted on the people of the ME. The government tries to do this by endless talk about death cults. An analysis by Fairfax Media shows that since September last year Tony Abbott has referred to the IS ‘death-cult’ 346 times! By contrast, he referred to domestic violence only 43 times. Yet domestic violence takes the life of over 100 people in Australia each year. We have had only two deaths as a result of ‘terrorism’ by an apparent ‘weirdo’ and a botched rescue operation– the Lindt Café.

    Domestic violence is a far greater threat to our society than IS.

    In his budget Joe Hockey said that ‘The threat of terrorism is rising and ever evolving and our response must be swift and uncompromising’. He proposed an extra $1.2 billion on top of an additional $1 billion last year to make Australia ‘safer from terrorism’. But funding to combat domestic violence is miniscule.

    The government clearly believes, probably correctly, that it can play to its political strength on national security and frighten the community about the death cult IS as it has done over asylum seekers. It will help divert attention from  failures elsewhere.

    Our ‘terrorism industry’ is booming. Our security agencies have no difficulty gaining large and increased budget funding. Terrorism and security consultants are thriving. Academics are joining the rush. I suspect that a lot of the comment from this terrorism industry is recycled and untested speculation. This industry is very incestuous.. From personal experience I am very sceptical about most so called ‘terrorism experts’ It was failed intelligence that got us into this mess in Iraq in the first place.

    Western policies, including our own, continue to fuel terrorism.

    With the breakup of the Ottoman Empire at the end of WWI there was a scramble by the colonial powers, particularly the UK and France to divide up the Middle East for their imperial purposes. The West has continued to prop up authoritarian and corrupt governments like those in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Emirates. The West continues to plunder Middle Eastern resources and particularly oil. In 1953 the CIA overthrew the democratically elected Mosaddegh government of Iran for the benefit of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, now BP.

    The US and its allies, including Australia, have deployed more than 2.5 million troops to Afghanistan and Iraq since 2001 and spent more than $1 trillion on these conflicts. Hundreds of thousands have died, mainly the people of the Middle East, yet the security situation is now worse than it was in 2001. The US Secretary of Defence told us only yesterday, after the fall of Ramadi, that ‘Iraqi forces lack the will to fight’.

    The West speaks endlessly about the IS ‘death-cult’ but ignores the US drones, directed by CIA operatives in Langley, to fire hellfire missiles that invariably kill  innocent civilians. We focus on possible atrocities on our home soil but ignore the tragedy that we have helped inflict on people in the ME and elsewhere.

    What arrogance it is to think that we can successfully intervene in a region that is wracked by centuries of tribal and sectarian disputes. We are quite ignorant of the cultures in the ME but we act as if we know what is best for them.

    Not surprisingly many young Muslims, some social misfits, some wanting to demonstrate their manhood, respond to this tragic history of Western colonisation, plunder and aggression against Muslim people and their lands.

    Some are apparently wishing to return to Australia.. If on checking they seem genuine we should be supportive Careful monitoring would be essential. Families and communities as well as government agencies would need to be actively involved in the de radicalisation process.

    The most effective way to discourage more IS recruits is to let them hear from returnees that they have made a mistake. Nothing would better undermine Islamist propaganda.

    The Chilcott Enquiry in the UK was told by the Head of MI5 that UK participation in the Iraq War substantially increased the threat6 of terrorism in the UK. A former head of the AFP in Australia told us several years ago that we face the same risk because of our involvement in Iraq. And we are back in Iraq again!

    Western and Australian policies in the Middle East have made us a large and high profile target for Islamic terrorism. It should not surprise us.

    We need to address not only terrorism itself, but the causes of terrorism. And the causes have been a succession of Western policies which have brought humiliation and anger to the people of the Middle East.

    Our policies continue to nurture terrorism.

    The Australian Government is spending enormous sums to ‘keep us safe’. In fact its policies have put us in greater danger. And the opposition meekly falls into line.

  • John Menadue. Making the Federation work better.

    Fairness, Opportunity and Security
    Policy series edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue.

    State governments spend about 25% of their budgets on health and another 25% on education. A cooperative arrangement between the commonwealth and state governments in one of these areas would greatly improve the operation of our federation. This article will focus on possible cooperation in health.

    A State handover of health services to the Commonwealth, as suggested by Tony Abbott many years ago, would be one way to overcome the waste and buck-passing between the Commonwealth and State governments in health. Kevin Rudd suggested that his government might take over state hospitals. Opinion polls suggested that the public would support this approach. But Kevin Rudd backed away. In passing it should be noted that the Commonwealth has no recent experience in running hospitals. It is not an easy task.

    But as a Commonwealth takeover is most unlikely, an alternative would be to establish a Joint Commonwealth/State Health Commission (Joint Health Commission) in any State where the Commonwealth and a State government can agree – a coalition of the willing, a Commonwealth/state partnership on a state by state basis.

    It is envisaged that the joint commission, with shared Commonwealth/State governance would be responsible for funding, planning and integrating all health services in that State. Consistent with an agreed plan, the Commission would then buy health services from existing providers – Commonwealth, State, local, NGO and private.

    A political agreement between the Commonwealth and any State is essential. If this political agreement is achieved, we would see a more cohesive and integrated health service, delivered much more efficiently. Once the benefit was clear in one State, hopefully other States would follow.

    I believe that this proposal would have strong public support. We are tired of the blame game.

    Either the Commonwealth government or any State government could initiate the breaking of the impasse.

    Background

    The Commonwealth Government provides about 43% of national health funding and the State Governments and territories 26 %. Another 31% of funding is from non-government sources (mainly individual users of health services).

    In both the NSW and SA health reviews that I chaired some years ago, a view was widely expressed that it’s all very well for State governments to review their health systems, but a major problem is the inefficiency, fragmentation, gaps, cost and blame shifting which results from the different roles of the Commonwealth and State governments in health’. This view was expressed, not only by those working in the health system, but also by the community generally. It was also frequently expressed by the media. The problem of divided responsibilities is well understood. The public doesn’t really give a hoot who plans and delivers health services. The public’s real concern is that the services are provided efficiently and equitably.

    Integration of commonwealth and state health functions are essential. Professor John Dwyer, in this blog, estimated   that more than 600,000 state hospital admissions per year could be saved if there was more timely community intervention which is funded by the Commonwealth.

    A solution requires a political agreement between the Commonwealth government and at least one State. The political issue cannot be avoided and attempts to get around this issue are likely to be unsuccessful, time-consuming and cumbersome. A bureaucratic or organisational response to a political problem will be unsatisfactory. The issue must be addressed politically. If there is political agreement, governance, financial, administrative and other issues could be successfully managed.

    Such an approach would not produce a unified national health system, but six (excluding the territories for the moment) joint health systems which are State-based. Nonetheless, this would be superior to the present division and fragmentation. The six State-based joint commissions may also better reflect the different history and needs of respective States. One size doesn’t necessarily fit all.

    The states may also be now more interested in what is proposed here because the 2014 budget suggests that over the next 10 years the Commonwealth will contribute $ 50 b less to state hospitals than the outgoing Labor government proposed. There was no certainty that this 10 year funding would have remained in place but I don’t think there is any doubt however that the Abbott government will attempt to shift more responsibility to the states for hospitals and schools.

    A Joint Health Commission in any State where the Commonwealth and the State could agree would have the following characteristics.

    1. Coverage of Joint Health Commission

    The wider the coverage the better to ensure real and comprehensive resource allocation and integration of services across the full continuum of care. The following programs should be included as the planning responsibility of the Joint Health Commission.

    • State Health (including Health Care Agreement)
    • High level residential aged care
    • Department of Veterans’ Affairs (DVA)
    • Home and Community Care (HACC)
    • Commonwealth Regional Health Services in rural and remote areas.
    • Medical Benefits Scheme (MBS)
    • Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme (PBS)
    • Aboriginal Health
    • Local Government health
    • NGOs (e.g. nursing services)
    • Public health

    State Health, HACC, etc. would tender for the provision of services to the Joint Health Commission. Similarly, local government and NGOs would tender, although allocations to them would probably need to be made through the State Health department.

    Private hospitals could probably be excluded from this coverage, as they depend on private contributions rather than direct government funding – except for occasional seed money. But provision should be made for private hospitals, along with local government and NGOs, to tender for supply of services to a Joint Health Commission, (see 3 below). The private delivery of health services should be encouraged where it is consistent with the state-wide plan and is delivered efficiently.

    Importantly, existing providers would continue to operate and provide services, and where appropriate, ministers – both Commonwealth and State – would continue to be responsible for their own services. But those services would be purchased by the Joint Health Commission as part of a state-wide plan, which I refer to under ‘functions’ below.

    2. Pooled Funding of Joint Health Commission

    The Joint Health Commission would receive a negotiated pooled allocation of funds from the Commonwealth and the State government. which reflected the coverage of programs for which it would be responsible (see 1 above), with appropriate population growth and cost indexation add-ons. As a starting point the shares of the two governments would reflect their current funding shares. Changes in the shares and total funding would be subject to the advice of the National Health Performance Authority (NHPA). That Authority would provide public advice to the two governments. The two governments would need to agree on annual funding arrangements.

    Whilst confidence in the funding formula is developed, it might be useful to consider shadow funding in the first 3 years and move to actual pooling of funds thereafter.

    3. Functions of Joint Health Commission

    1. a) Shared Resource Allocation through the purchase of various services from providers – Commonwealth, State and local government, and NGOs as part of a joint strategic plan.
    • In this case, shared resource allocation can be achieved through the establishment of a minimum set of Commonwealth and State programs.
    • The major changes associated with the JHC would provide an opportunity to move from producer dominated health care delivery to an output/patient focussed delivery system. So many of our health programs reflect provider interests; the MBS reflecting the interests of doctors and the AMA, the MBS reflecting the interests of the Pharmacy Guild and Big Pharma and public hospitals reflecting the interests of their providers, state governments. Patients are a secondary concern. We need to shift to a patient focussed health system in such key areas as chronic, acute and occasional care.
    • Funding would be allocated with agreed short and long term integrated outcomes, rather than siloed program outcomes, with specified standards and levels of performance.
    1. b) Shared Performance Management

    Oversee continuous improvement of the health system, monitor progress and establish reform targets and timelines:

    • Development of standard measurement
    • Benchmarking
    • Patient-centred best practices

    The NHPA provides an excellent opportunity for the establishment of a system that can meet the needs of consumers, community and health services. The NHPA can provide an approach that examines health status and outcomes, determinants of health, and health system performance.

    The NHPA should facilitate the mapping of progress for the population of a State, region or service. It could also be used to examine progress in tackling a particular health problem (e.g. aboriginal health), and to take a wider look at the interface between health and other government departments, the private sector and non-government organisations.

    4. Joint Health Commission Governance

    The following features could be included, and would ensure full Commonwealth and State government input into the state-wide plan:

    • Membership of the board should be high level to enable strategic decision-making on broad and longer-term issues.
    • Maximum transparency and disclosure of the Joint Commission’s work and final recommendations in order to neutralise special pleading and vested interests and to ensure public understanding and support.
    • The board of directors must have clear ‘governance’ responsibility and not a junior role. They should reflect the broad interests of the whole community and not be seen as representative of the Commonwealth or State or ‘insider interests’ that so dominate health systems in Australia.
    • Independent chair appointed by the two Ministers from a short list provided by the respective Commonwealth and State Health CEOs. It might be useful to have the chair from another State.
    • Apart from the chair, no jurisdiction to have more than 50% representation.
    • Representation could include other Commonwealth and State jurisdictions (e.g. Indigenous Affaires) and people having experience in the private sector.
    • The board would appoint the CEO who would be responsible to the board and not the two jurisdictions.
    • The board would approve the strategic plan and budget.
    • A constitution may be useful to provide more user-friendly objects, role, function and operating procedures, including engaging the private sector.
    • Subsidiarity should be an important principle for governors in developing the state-wide plan. Management and service delivery should be driven down to the lowest and most local level possible, consistent with state and nation-wide standards.
    • The Board should have a small secretariat, but rely on Joint Health Commission for planning etc. It must avoid a new level of bureaucracy.
    • Board costs would be shared by Commonwealth and State.
    • The Commonwealth and State minister would be responsible for negotiating high-level policy principles, including overall funding on the advice of the board. This would help reduce the risk of the board dividing on Commonwealth/State lines. Ministers must reach broad agreement if the Joint Health Commission is to work.
    • The board should be responsible to the Commonwealth and State minister, with one financial report to both. If there is not agreement between the two ministers, there would be a public dispute resolution procedure which would encourage cooperation and dialogue between the two ministers. This would encourage public trust in the integrity of the process. I would expect that this would produce an agreement in almost all cases. If resolution is not possible, the Commonwealth minister would prevail; given the need for a stronger national role and that the Commonwealth Government provides 43 % of national health funds compared with 26 % by the states.

    These governance arrangements could be reviewed in 5 years.

    Summary   

    A Joint Health Commission established upon agreement of any State with the Commonwealth would be a substantial improvement on the present arrangements. It would help break the impasse on federalism and better integrate health services. It requires a political decision between the Prime Minister and premier.

    The public is tired of the blame shifting and fragmentation in health and would respond to a sea change such as this. Such a joint health commission in any State that agreed would help achieve what both of them are seeking in health – a better integrated health system and a favourable community response, A committed Commonwealth government could use its financial leverage to make such an offer attractive to the states.

    A Joint Health Commission in any one State could begin to address the ‘big ticket’ problems in health delivery – the Commonwealth/State fragmentation, an eroding primary health care system, an antiquated workforce structure and obvious system failures in safety and quality.

    Of course, the fragmentation in health is not just caused by Commonwealth-State fragmentation. The two big Commonwealth programs – MBS and PBS – are not effectively integrated.

    All these big-ticket issues are lost sight of in the argy-bargy of Commonwealth/State blame and cost shifting.

    Not only would a Joint Health Commission in one State be a substantial improvement, it would also be very symbolic, demonstrating that governments can address hard political issues in a cooperative way.

    We must stop asking continually for more money or tweaking the health dollars, when many problems are structural. A lot of health spending is counter-productive – throwing money at problems to get them out of the media or for short-term political gain, rather than solving systemic problems. Any increase in health dollars must be accompanied by system change. A Joint Health Commission starting in one State is a sound way to begin breaking the impasse.

    The key is political will by ministers. If there is the political will, the governance problems can be resolved.

    There is no reason that the principles proposed above in health could not be applied in other fields such as education.

    John Menadue AO was formerly Secretary Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Secretary Department of Trade, Ambassador to Japan and CEO of Qantas.

  • John Menadue. Role of government . The importance of values.

    Fairness, Opportunity and Security
    Policy series edited by Michael Keating and John Menadue.

    Good government must be based on some broadly shared values that inspire and enthuse us.

    We can accept that our leaders must make some compromises from time to time, but we need to know ‘what they stand for’. We look for leaders who have conviction.

    For example, we need to discuss tax reform but so often it becomes a technical discussion when what is really at stake is the sort of society we want and how tax can help us in the goals we seek. Tax is a means to an end. It is not an end in itself. Oliver Wendell Holmes put it succinctly that taxes are what we pay for a civilised society. That is where the discussion about tax should start.

    We also need good managers but management also is a secondary issue. The important issues are the values and principles that should guide policy and programs which in turn must be managed well.

    Unfortunately values, principles and ideas have given way to ‘small target’ electioneering and the marketing of products. Money has replaced membership as the driving force of election campaigns.

    Principles as the basis for policy.

    We need leaders and political parties to express themselves in a clear set of principles which accord with the best of Australians’ values. Otherwise the political contest is reduced to satisfying short-term materialist ‘aspirations’, appeasing vested interests and managing the media cycle.

    From community values a set of principles of public policy can be developed. Those principles can underpin a coherent set of policies and programs which implement those policies.

    Values > principles > policies > programs.

    Compromising on issues such as refugee policy simply legitimises those who exploit people’s fear and is likely to drive out sensible and reasonable political debate and confuse supporters.

    Many of us take an optimistic view of human nature and recognition of the importance of the public sphere where people realise their full capabilities. These ideas can be expressed in consistent and coherent principles such as fairness, opportunity, stewardship, the common wealth, including enhancement of social environmental and institutional capital and protection of natural resources.

    Today, Australia faces great challenges – climate change, population ageing, commodity based exports, deficits in human capital and a weak base for public revenue. The politics of ‘what’s in it for me’ discourages us from facing these challenges, for there will have to be trade-offs. Some will have to pay more than others and some will have to forego benefits now for the sake of longer term benefits. Such transitions can be painful, but are more likely to gain support when people understand the principles underpinning public policy.

    When a political party is unified around a set of principles it can still have a robust debate about how to give effect to those principles. But it would be in control of its message because its parliamentary representatives can engage with the electorate in a consistent and sincere voice, with less reliance on ‘talking points’ and spin and with less concern with the immediate reaction of focus groups. Party supporters would be much more prepared to accept political compromise if they know that there is strong leadership and there is broad agreement on key values and principles. Leadership has to be patient and consistent around these values and principles – and never go backwards. Authenticity and sincerity are then easily recognised. 

    From values to principles

    Values such as fairness, freedom, citizenship, stewardship and ethical responsibility, would be generally accepted by most people. As the values are translated into practise they can be further defined as principles that then lead to policies, e.g. the value of fairness can be expressed in the principle of a stronger link between contribution and reward- a link which has become severed by hugely disproportionate executive pay, high returns to rent seekers and financial speculators and the long head-start of inherited wealth.

    The following is indicative of a set of values and their expressions in principles.

    Fairness/equity

    A ‘fair go’ is primarily about economic opportunity.

    People should be provided with a good education and those who put it to socially useful ends should be rewarded. Governor Lachlan Macquarie was no socialist but his ‘tickets of leave’ gave the outcasts and underprivileged of this country another chance. We built a nation this way. We must give a chance for newcomers and all people to have another opportunity.

    Fairness promotes social mobility and limits division and resentment.

    Fairness should not be restricted to education.

    The path to prosperity with fairness is through productivity and well-paid employment rather than government handouts. The Nordics have demonstrated that education and incentives for participation do produce fairness and economic prosperity.

    Fairness implies that we are tough towards ‘bludgers’, whether they be tax-dodgers, the vulgarity and indulgence of  those with inherited wealth, protection from competition, government hand-outs and favouritism or cheating on social services.

    Fairness implies full employment as a macro-economic goal to ensure human capabilities are not wasted.

    Areas where we fall short in fairness include

    • Unfairness in taxation,
    • Neglect of early childhood education,
    • Treatment of the needs of indigenous people and refugees,
    • Diversion of education funding to wealthy schools,
    • Inadequate ODA.

    Freedom

    We all have rights to the extent that they do not lessen the rights of others.

    Except where the rights of the vulnerable are at stake, the government should not intrude into the private realm.

    Denial of freedom does not happen overnight; it is eroded step by step.

    We must be vigorous in promoting our freedoms – freedom of speech, freedom of religion, the rule of law and free and fair elections.

    The potential abuse of power should be minimised by the separation of powers and the separation of church and state.

    Areas where we fall short in freedom include

    • The growing power of cabinet and executive which is not adequately balanced by parliament.
    • We have no Human Rights Act.
    • We have reduced freedom as a result of counter-terrorism legislation.
    • The media increasingly fails to protect our freedoms and often facilitates abuse of power by lobbyists.

    Citizenship

    We are more than individuals linked by market transactions.

    Our life in the public sphere is no less necessary than our private lives. As citizens we enjoy and contribute to the public good. It is where we show and learn respect for others, particularly people who are different. It is where we abide by shared rules of civic conduct. It is where we build social capital – networks of trust. We need to behave in ways that make each of us trusted members of the community. ‘Do no harm’ is not sufficient.

    Citizenship brings responsibilities – political participation, vigilance against abuse of power and paying taxes.

    Areas where we fall short in citizenship include

    • Our withdrawal into the private realm; there are growing gated communities, private entertainment,
    • Private rather than public transport and resulting reluctance of influential people to support investment in public transport.
    • Disregard of neighbours.
    • Government subsidies, private health insurance and private schools that discourage the coalescence of socially mixed communities around shared public schools and public hospitals
    • NGOs have increasingly become part of government.
    • Tax avoidance by large corporations. 

    Stewardship

    We have inherited a stock of assets or capital; environmental (forests/water), public and private physical capital (roads/ports), human capital (education), family capital (family and friendship bonds), social capital (trust), cultural capital and institutional capital (government and non-government institutions). That stock of assets must be retained and where possible enhanced.

    We must use our resources as efficiently and productively as possible.

    Areas where we fall short in stewardship include

    • We are amongst the highest per capital carbon polluters in the world.
    • We are placing a heavy strain on the planet which prejudices our grand children’s future.
    • We waste water and degrade the land.
    • We continue to log old growth forests.
    • We are degrading the Great Barrier Reef.

    Ethical responsibility

    Those in prominent office should promote those qualities which draw on the best of our traditions and the noblest of our instincts.

    The duty of those with public influence is to encourage hope and redemption rather than despair and condemnation, confidence rather than fear. It is to promote the common good – to encourage us to use our talents. It is to respect truth and strengthen learning to withstand the powers of populism and vested or sectional interests. This would set a tone of public discourse which nurtures public institutions

    Areas where we fall short in ethical responsibility include

    • Leaders, who appeal to our worst instincts, e.g. dog whistling on refugees.
    • Executive salaries,
    • Undue influence of vested interests and corporate lobbyists.
    • Those in public office should help the community to deal with difficult problems which may require painful adaptive change, such as climate change, rather than provide the false comfort of ignoring or downplaying them.
    • Tax avoidance by large companies.

    We need leaders and institutions that make clear what they stand for on key values and principles which are then translated into policies and programs.

  • John Menadue. The Budget and Liberal economic management.

    Current Affairs:  The Budget

    Opinion polls and the public generally seem to believe that the Liberal Party is a superior economic manager to the Labor Party. There are also signs that the Liberal Party believes this about itself.

    But the somersault in last night’s budget  was extraordinary. I don’t think I have ever seen a government repudiate so quickly – what it had been telling us for years – how it was necessary to ensure our future. We had dire problems of debt and deficit that the former government had bequeathed to the Abbott/Hockey government.

    The debt and deficit rhetoric and actions taken in the 2014 budget have now been abandoned. The 2014 budget is a smoking ruin. 

    If a private or public company was managed like the Australian economy the whole board would be sacked. 

    The budget may be politically cute but our economic future is prejudiced. The headline in today’s AFR sums it up ‘Hockey spends up as deficits hung out to dry’. In the SMH Ross Gittins said ‘This is the budget of a badly rattled government that has put self-preservation ahead of economic responsibility. It will do much to restore Tony Abbott’s political fortunes but next to nothing to return the budget to surplus or hasten the economy’s return to strong growth.’  John Menadue

    See below a post I made on this subject on 23 March 2015.

    There is not fire after all. There is no emergency.

    For the last 18 months Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey have been talking endlessly about a deficit and debt disaster. Clearly we should have been calling in the fire brigade to quell the fire that the Labor Government had lit.

    We were told that there was a 13% debt to GDP ratio that the government had inherited. That debt would bring disaster unless the government took dramatic action to fix it. Joe Hockey told us only last week in releasing the report of the Intergenerational Review that the budget projections were so bad that we would ‘fall off our chairs’ when we saw them.

    Yet since this government came to power, the budget deficit has deteriorated $80 billion over the Forward Estimates.

    So in light of the desperate situation the government inherited and the deterioration in the budget under its own watch, what does the government do?

    Tony Abbott now tells us that we can forget about any budget emergency and all the dire predictions of the past.  He told us only a few days ago that the next budget would be dull and that all the heavy lifting had been done. He assured us that there would be no more unpleasant medicine. He inferred that a nett debt of even 60% to GDP was no problem. He indicated that in the next budget, we would have tax cuts for small businesses and a revamped child care and family package.

    I don’t think I have ever seen a government repudiate so quickly what it was telling us was so necessary to ensure our future. We had dire problems that had to be fixed. The government has now abandoned the rhetoric and its policies of the last 18 months.

    And its 2014 budget is a smoking ruin.

    How can Joe Hockey with any credibility present his next budget? The narrative of the last 18 months has all been torn up.  He and the government by their own actions have discredited their own claims to being good economic managers.  Billie McMahon did better than this.

    In the Australian Financial Review on March 19, 2015, Laura Tingle put this mess together under the heading ‘Being governed by fools is not funny’. She is dead right. See link to her article below.

    http://afr.com/opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/being-governed-by-fools-is-not-funny-20150319-1m2wd1

    The government now wants us to believe that there was no emergency and no fire at all. It was all made up.

    But the problem is that we do have budget difficulties that must be soberly and carefully addressed without penalising the vulnerable in our community.

    What a mess!