Mack Williams

Given the key role which President Xi has played in the negotiating process between President Trump and Chairman Kim a recent analysis in the Global Times (published by the People’s Daily) provides some valuable Chinese insights into the prospects for the Second Summit. (more…)

President Trump’s announcement of a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in late February at an agreed but as yet unspecified location ( probably Hanoi or Ho Chi Minh) has reactivated interest in the search for a resolution of the “Korean crisis”. It followed a flurry of activity among key stakeholders over the past few weeks.   (more…)

Following the major Republican defeat in the US mid-term elections, President Trump has accelerated preparations for his 2020 re-election replacing “Make America Great Again” with  “Keep America Great” as the theme. This will put more pressure on achieving his initial campaign rhetoric to clear the decks. But the series of problems he encountered in the past few weeks are complicating his plans. This is the scene in which the shock announcements on Syria and Afghanistan need to be viewed.  (more…)

Not surprisingly North Korea was relegated by the US:China “tariff war” in the recent G20 summit in Buenos Aires but some progress may have been made in preparing for the next phases of US:DPRK and ROK:DPRK dialogues. China also made clear the linkage between its trade disputes with the US and the extent of their cooperation in working on the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. (more…)

As renewed discussion grows pace in Australia about being less dependent on the United States in any Cold War against China how realistic is that option? For one thing we would need to loosen some of the linkages which have embedded us so deeply into the US defence machine through the US Indo Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). (more…)

Despite President Trump’s exchange of “love letters” with the North Korean leader, from the public record it seems that Secretary of State Pompeo’s last discussions with Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang failed to achieve any significant breakthrough on denuclearisation. But there have been several important developments in the Korean scene over the past few months which impinge directly on Australian national interests. (more…)

Korean issues  have often been edged out of the headlines in the past few months by a plethora of other global issues but they remain far from being resolved. “War War” been replaced by “Jaw Jaw” at least for the moment. Much is still simmering along  largely beneath the radar. And much has been clouded by the chaotic US domestic scene – not only surrounding President Trump’s own governance problems but equally his relations with the US intelligence and defence establishment. So where do things stand right now?  (more…)

While the pace of media reports about the Korean Peninsular has slowed a little since the Singapore Summit there has been much going on – in public and under wraps. Skepticism about the North’s commitment to the core issue of denuclearisation has grown but it is still clearly too early to form definite conclusions about where it may all end .  The central negotiations remain between the United States and the DPRK but with the ROK closely connected  there is a flourishing set of side talks between other key players and some without any direct US involvement. Foremost among the latter have been the  intra-Korean talks in which both sides seem to be working  quickly to  take advantage of the present situation to speed up cooperative endeavours across a wide range of areas. China and Russia have also  been encouraging the DPRK to follow the course by moving jointly to pressure the US to dilute the UN based sanctions – all of which will be on the agenda for Trump when he meets Putin soon and talks with Xi as he seems frequently to do. (more…)

Much has been written about the recent Kim:Moon Summit and its communique. The signs on the interKorean front are encouraging but all still hinges on how the Kim:Trump Summit. It will have to address the absolutely critical issue of “denuclearisation” – what it actually means and how could it be achieved. There is still  far to go and the challenge for Trump is to find a way short of Armageddon that will really so diminish the North’s nuclear and ICBM capability that he can claim a victory.   (more…)

The pace of developments on the  Korean peninsular in the past month or so has been breathtaking matched by  the plethora of pundits who have sought to interpret what it all means and where we may be headed. Not surprisingly given the history and geography and the stakeholders involved much of coverage has been confusing and often contradictory. Facts are hard to come by as also has been reliable inside information. But it is all about to kick off with the two Korean leaders holding their summit later this week in the DMZ. So what do we know? (more…)

Fairfax Media’s awakened interest in the South Pacific would have been only too welcome if it had not been sparked by a leak from the all too familiar ‘senior defence sources’ in Canberra and Washington which so distorted the scene.   (more…)

President Trump’s positive response to Kim Jong-un’s invitation to direct talks naturally has created a swirl of media commentary and speculation.  It has served Trump’s interest to promote a sense of surprise though it probably also reflects a considerable amount of activity by a number of stakeholders in recent months.  Given the DPRK’s track record in earlier negotiating efforts and the seemingly dysfunctional White House, it is hard to be more than cautious about where it might lead. (more…)

The recent quick visit of the Prime Minister to Washington has raised more questions than it has answered about the state of Australia’s relations with the US and China. Have the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister set out a new policy on China and the South China Sea or are they just playing at trying to distance themselves modestly from Washington? (more…)

The appointment of Admiral Harris as Ambassador to Australia raises serious concerns about the role he will play in the development of Australian strategic policy as we seek to maintain the sort of relationship with China and the US outlined in the White Paper. (more…)

While Washington is paralysed by alleged White House scandal the US has taken its eye off the South China Sea. Continuing developments in the region have reinforced China’s position. Australia cannot afford to delay its own examination of our long term national interests in our neighbourhood.  (more…)

The decision by the DPRK to reopen high level talks with the ROK next week in preparation for the Winter Olympics is monumental for the ROK. Followed by the US:ROK decision to defer major military exercises at the time of the Games it could well provide an opportunity for informal contacts which could lead eventually to direct US:DPRK talks.   (more…)

The White Paper provides a long overdue but commendable assessment of the extensive challenges and opportunities for Australian foreign policy. It should have formed the basis for considered parliamentary debate. Unfortunately, while acknowledging for the first time the extent and pace of change, it offers few new or fresh ideas on how it should be managed and is preoccupied with maintaining what it can of the status quo. (more…)