President Trump’s characterisation of Kim Jong-un as a “smart cookie” illustrates the learning process he is undergoing about how to operate in Asia and who might be contributing to it. Learning how to manage President Duterte may be another challenge. (more…)
Mack Williams
-
MACK WILLIAMS. Korean Peninsula – just where are we right now?
So much is going on in the different channels between the US and China, China and the DPRK and by now maybe US and DPRK that reading the tea leaves is an almost impossible – if not frantic – task. The situation remains extremely high risk and crystal ball gazing is near to fantasy. (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. Canberra wrong-footed in our region?
For Ms Bishop to be talking in Singapore about China and democracies, the Japanese “big ship” and rallying the claimants while pleading with the US to remain staunchly committed in the region certainly is risky. We could be exposed as being more hard line than the US might turn out to be and interpreted as Australia insensitively lecturing the claimants.
(more…) -
MACK WILLIAMS. Joint patrols with Indonesia in the South China Sea?
Has Foreign Minister Bishop finally been able to kill off the proposed joint Australia: Indonesia patrols in the South China Sea ? (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. South China Sea: China taps in the last nail!
It is now clear for all to see that the only potential US “ally” for any US confrontation in the region could be Australia. China has successfully wedged the ASEAN’s in through their common concern that it would be them that would suffer most from any military confrontation in the South China Sea. (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. When and how to say ‘no’. Darwin?
We cannot remain oblivious to the fact that the creeping incrementalism, which has characterised the Defence Postures relationship, is likely to slip us into positions from which it would become increasingly difficult to say No. We need a line in the sand now to prevent this happening. (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. Trump : Getting our priorities right
Is China going to fill the void?
The media-hyped flurry to try to establish the likely policy guidelines of the Trump administration is timely and natural but should be approached very cautiously. Not only is it virtually impossible at this moment to reach many definitive conclusions it is no less easy to identify the likely key players in the new administration – even within the close-in transition team as the sacking of Governor Christie and his cohort has illustrated. At the same time Australia needs to undertake a proper review of the major strategic trends in our region which have been developing for some years – and pre-date Trump. Concerns about the implications for our region stemming from Trump’s comments in the campaign certainly served to accelerate those trends. But we are where we are today because of the fundamentally changing strategic scene. (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. General Macarthur, the Philippines and Australian troops in WWII.
The very good Boston Globe article reminded me of two other events in Philippines history of WW11 about which so little is known in Australia. They have some relevance to the contemporary scene.
For a long time prior to the famous Macarthur landing in Leyte, the Australian Government lobbied Washington right up to the President for our 7th Division to be included in the invasion force. Macarthur steadfastly refused even when so directed by the White House. The result was that the AIF’s 7th Division was separated out of the invasion fleet and sent to Borneo (many ending up in Sandakan). But their supply ships continued on to the Leyte Gulf which involved the largest ever naval force Australia has ever put to sea! How things could have been different!
The only foreigners involved in the very active resistance movement against the Japanese in Mindanao were some Australians who had escaped from Sandakan through Sibutu. They set up first in the hills of Tawi Tawi ( a slightly bigger island to the north). When MacArthur despatched some American commandos by submarine to Tawi Tawi to take command the Philippines guerillas would not let them land. They told him that they wanted to work with the Australians. All the Australians who stayed on were eventually captured and executed by the Japanese.
Mack Williams was former Ambassador to the Philippines.
-
MACK WILLIAMS. The real shipping choke point for Australia – Sibutu Channel
Neither the Australian government nor the Australian media have informed us about the critical nature of the Sibutu Channel.
As mentioned in this blog some time ago. the active political and media discussion in Australia about the South China Sea has continued to ignore the fact that the most critical choke point for Australia’s huge trade with North Asia is the Sibutu Channel. This lies inside Philippines territorial waters between Sabah and the southernmost Philippines islands. Nor has our media recognised that this area has long been a hot spot for the Muslim insurgency in the Philippines and more recently the radical Abu Sayyaf. The latter have an established history of kidnapping and ransom and worse – with a number of foreigners currently in their hands. (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. President Duterte and high stakes poker.
Following President Duterte’s recent trips to China and Japan he has continued to play his hand in what has become a high stakes poker game with the US and China attracting a growing number of interested onlookers. Despite the twists in his game, which have often been interpreted as wobbles or even backflips by many foreign observers, Duterte has kept his cards close to his chest and tried to stay on course to rebalance The Philippines’ relationship with the US and China. An axiom for understanding the Philippines domestic scene has always been “ thanks to a free and hyperactive media there are no secrets but the truth is always extremely difficult to determine”. That is certainly in play again now! (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. Duterte plays the China card
Not surprisingly, President Duterte is proving more than a handful for US policy makers on the eve of his major state visit to China. If he achieves many of the ambitious goals set for the visit , Duterte will be strengthened in his resolve to chart policies away from the traditional Philippines dependence on the US. How far China will be prepared to exploit Duterte’s position will be critical for US (and Australian) policy in the South China Sea. But so also it will be for the Philippines’ ASEAN partners as China’s considerable soft power potential in the region will be on display. (more…)
-
MACK WILLIAMS. Here we go again: Julie Bishop and Duterte!
Foreign Minister Bishop’s not so gentle rebuke of President Duterte that the Philippines as a claimant state should pull its weight in the South China Sea eerily had all the elements of the earlier Australian approach to the acrimonious bilateral debate between Washington and Manila over the closure of the huge US bases in the Philippines. Much of which occurred in my 5 years as Ambassador there. Driven by our perceived Alliance obligations we were under instructions from Canberra to offer what assistance we could to the US in their debate with the Philippines on the grounds of regional security. (more…)
-
Mack Williams. Abbot’s visit to Korea not all about trade!
As Tony Abbott’s first time to South Korea (ROK) as Prime Minister this visit carries much more importance than the mercantilist hype in which it has been cloaked. It will certainly will be seen through a much larger prism by his hosts – and their brothers across the border. The Korean peninsular is of fundamental strategic importance to Australia as the only place in the world where the national interests of the all major powers intersect and the potential for conflict remains so high. The mozaic of all these interests is extremely complex, demanding close and continuing interest of the highest order and very sensitive management on our part – as the Prime Minister and his team should have learned from the instant and robust reaction not only from China but also the ROK to his incautious remarks about Japan being Australia’s best friend in the region. This visit offers him the opportunity to appreciate this kaleidoscope of challenges at first hand.
Both Japan and the ROK are alliance partners of the US but they often sing from very different hymn sheets – usually to the chagrin of the US as witnessed by President Obama’s very public efforts at the recent summit in The Netherlands to initiate and chair the first face to face meeting between Prime Minister Abe and President Park. Likewise, on many issues the ROK is more comfortable with China than it is with Japan. As their country has been a battlefield for centuries between China and Japan, Koreans have learned more about managing relations with both than any other country and have much wisdom to offer at a time when the rest of the world is beginning to focus on the looming strategic shifts in the region
North Korea , of course, remains a constant threat not only to the ROK but to the region and the world more widely. ROK views on and policies towards the DPRK are naturally far more complex than media headlines would suggest – and often more sophisticated. This links directly into the ROK relationship with the US which is often quite sensitive. Australia would do well to understand much better these shades of difference and bear them in mind in forming our own policy towards the DPRK.
There have been some notable occasions when Australia and the ROK have worked very closely together on regional and international initiatives :for example, Hawke and his Korean counterpart with the foundation of APEC, Rudd and his counterpart with the development of the G20. But the Middle Power vision of the two countries in the region , along with Indonesia and others, has often been mooted but never taken off. It could be timely to revisit the concept in discussions with President Park.
Given the welcome progress on the FTA after so many years in the making and the extraordinary size of the travelling business retinue some of the hoopla is understandable. But there is still some way to go before its outcomes can be reasonably quantified. It will make little if any impact on the big hitters of Australian exports to the ROK whose business is well established and working well on a market basis with what is a remarkably globalised Korean economy. Last year we enjoyed a $ 10 billion trade surplus with our exports to the ROK twice the value of their exports to us. In any event Korean business culture is such that touring spectaculars seldom lead to instant match-making. Sustained engagement through personal networking remains essential. Even door opening for groups of this size becomes very problematic.
Our agricultural exports should gain benefit from the FTA but the floodgates are unlikely to open wide – especially in beef which has been so contentious for decades. The services sector should also benefit. The most obvious Korean gain will be the removal of the 5% tariff on cars which has disadvantaged Korean manufacturers to cars from Thailand.
In his recent Asia Society promo of the North Asia tour Abbott is “hoping” that the FTA will be signed while he is Korea. The uncertainty is generated by the lengthy translation of the volumes of paperwork involved. The Korea US FTA several years ago failed so badly in translation – sparking over 300 cases in Korean courts and real tensions between Seoul and Washington.
After signature the formal approval of the FTA by both parliaments will be needed before implementation. On the Korean side this will be no cake-walk especially in the very sensitive agricultural area. Democracy is very much alive and well in Korea and they have a higher proportion of rural electorates than Australia. Given the outstanding success of cooperatives in the ROK, rural voters are largely small and ageing farmers not rapacious landlords or agribusiness. The Korean government may wait for the signature of FTA’s currently in negotiation with Canada and New Zealand to present all three as a package to the National Assembly.
Mack Williams is a former Australian Ambassador to the Republic of Korea.