Mark was born and raised in the Boston area. His rough and tumble youth left an indelible mark reflected in his Boston blue collar accent, attitude and life-long membership of the Red Sox nation. He fell in love with Hawaii the moment he arrived in January 1969 to pursue a PH. D. in Oceanography at UH. (more…)
Mark J. Valencia
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Albanese, Xi meet in the shadow of the Australia-China-US triangle
As Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Beijing in an attempt to improve relations, Elena Collinson warned that untangling Australia- China relations from China- U.S. relations would be difficult. Indeed, Australia–China relations remain deeply troubled. Because the dynamics and dangers in the relationship are still the same, it is worth revisiting a piece I wrote last year for Pearls and Irritations. (more…)
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US partly to blame for Taiwan Strait incident
A major purpose of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China was, in his words, to reestablish communications to reduce “ misunderstandings and miscommunications” to prevent or manage incidents between the two militaries. The 3 June near collision of China and US warships in the Taiwan Strait is a prime example. (more…)
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Is a Gulf of Tonkin-type incident brewing in the South China Sea?
The situation in the South China Sea is on the verge of becoming a game of chicken between the U.S. and China with the Philippines in the middle. This would be very dangerous and could cause China to miscalculate. Either one blinks or they clash.
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The South China Sea: countries in glass houses should not throw stones
The Philippines publicly announced that it is deploying navigational buoys near some of the rocks it claims and occupies in the South China Sea. It says the buoys signify “the country’s sovereign rights and jurisdiction over our EEZ” and has warned of “serious repercussions” if China removes them. This was just its latest provocative and hypocritical action in the South China Sea. (more…)
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A worst case scenario for the South China Sea
The increasing militarisation of the South China Sea disputes sets the stage for the worst case scenario—frequent and widespread conflict that eventually results in a military confrontation between China and the US. To avoid this scenario, the reality is that China, its rival claimants and the U.S. have to compromise. (more…)
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The negative consequences of the Philippines’ choice of the US over China
The Philippines has clearly chosen the U.S. over China in their struggle for regional hegemony. The Marcos Jnr administration says that it is in its national interest to do so. But there will be significant negative consequences as well. (more…)
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The US diplomatic blitz regarding the South China Sea
The US is engaged in a public relations blitz to win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asia and demonise China. However it is replete with deceit and hypocrisy. (more…)
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What should the US do vis-à-vis China in the South China Sea?
To provide a deterrent to China’s domination of the South China Sea, the U.S. needs to place its warships, planes and missiles in the region, possibly in the Philippines. However, any scenario that doesn’t involve US accommodation of China’s interests, and China’s accommodation of its neighbours’ interests, won’t end well. (more…)
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Why is Australia conducting provocative intelligence flights and activities off the China coast in support of the US?
How would Australia react if Chinese ISR (Intelligence ,Surveillance,Reconnaissance) planes were similarly operating off its coast probing its defences and dropping sonobuoys to detect its submarines? (more…)
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Who is provoking whom in the South China Sea?
The frequency and intensity of dangerous incidents between US and China militaries are increasing in the South China Sea and second-in-line to the US Presidency Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan doesn’t help ease the situation. But the U.S needs to pause and examine just who is provoking who and its contributions to the tension there. (more…)
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Hope for a better Australian policy toward Southeast Asia?
America has been trying to use Southeast Asian countries and ASEAN in its contest with China for regional dominance and Australia has long followed America’s lead. But now there is a glimmer of hope that at least the Australian approach towards Southeast Asia may change for the better. (more…)
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Australia is dancing with the devil’s in the South China Sea
Is Australia sleepwalking into a conflict with China in the South China Sea? Canberra echoes Washington’s arguments about freedom of navigation and mimics US surveillance activities in the South China Sea, while claiming it acts in its own interests. Yet it must ask itself: how does provoking a possible military conflict serve the country or region? (more…)
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China, the U.S. and the South China Sea – what could go wrong?
The U.S. and China continue their standoff in the South China Sea. Although they are struggling to set a ‘floor’ and guardrails for their military interactions, there is much that could go wrong.
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The U.S. – China dispute over the Taiwan Strait’s legal regime
In the most recent flap over the legal regime governing passage of warships through the Taiwan Strait, both China and the U.S. are partially right –and partially wrong. (more…)
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Is the Quad’s maritime domain awareness initiative a trojan horse for the US military?
The Quad has launched the Indo-Pacific Partnership on Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). While hailed by its backers as a step forward in practical Quad cooperation, it could be a Trojan horse for the US military. (more…)
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Quad Hypocrisy on the Law of the Sea
The Quad’s statements regarding upholding the “international order” are hugely hypocritical when it come to the Law of the Sea. (more…)
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Close encounter of China-Australia military aircraft raises questions
A close encounter between Australian and Chinese military aircraft over the South China Sea has resulted in mutual accusations of provocative and dangerous behaviour and raised many questions. Here is what we know –and what we need to know before drawing conclusions. (more…)
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Will Ukraine break the back of the beleaguered US Indo-Pacific strategy?
Implementation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy is already facing significant obstacles. Now divisions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are further undermining US diplomatic efforts. (more…)
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The ASEAN-US summit: rhetoric versus reality
When the US-ASEAN Summit was first announced, there were great expectations on both sides. However fond hopes foundered on the rocks of reality. (more…)
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US-CHINA compromise in the South China Sea could be the basis of a larger strategic framework
China has already proposed “a new model of great power relations” implying equality and shared responsibility in world affairs. To avoid military conflict, the U.S. must accommodate to some extent China’s legitimate interests and aspirations by sharing power—when, on what issues, how, and how much are to be negotiated. (more…)
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Supposed lessons of the Ukraine tragedy for the Indo-Pacific
The tragedy of Ukraine has elicited a plethora of opinion pieces purporting to divine lessons learned for the Indo-Pacific. Some of them make sense. But many others reflect fuzzy, biased and wishful thinking. (more…)
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Who is militarizing the south China sea?
There is an ongoing debate between the U.S. and China as to who is militarizing the South China Sea. Who is right is not clear and they both have their arguments. (more…) -
China-Australia laser incident raises many questions
The belligerent statements by Scott Morrison and other seem blown out of proportion for political reasons and may have been motivated by the upcoming elections. (more…)
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US Indo-Pacific Strategy is built on false assumptions about ASEAN
The agenda of the new US Indo-Pacific Strategy for Southeast Asia is based on false assumptions and ignores fundamental differences between them and the U.S.
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Dutton’s posturing can only lead to military confrontation with China
As the US draws its allies in an encirclement campaign against China, Australia’s Defence Minister is adding fuel to the fire.
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Sea of hypocrisy around US freedom of navigation operations
These US operations in the South China Sea may violate international law, increase the risk of confrontation and are politically motivated.
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An uneasy rules-based order: China’s restraint in South China Sea has limits
The implementation of AUKUS and increased US intelligence probes threaten China’s nuclear submarines that are its deterrent against a strike by the US.
