Washington insists it will defend the “rules-based order” in the face of China’s increasing belligerence, but it may be raising expectations too high.
Mark J. Valencia
-
China’s belligerence in the South China Sea is backfiring
Its illegal actions and attempts at intimidation are fostering resentment among South-East Asian nations — and playing into the hands of the US.
-
Yesterday President Xi Jinping discussed South China Sea with ASEAN leaders
Will the South China Sea Code of Conduct herald a new order? China will present a united front with ASEAN countries. The US may have other ideas. (more…)
-
Nuclear submarine operations in South China Sea endanger coastal countries
The accident involving a US nuclear-powered submarine in the South China Sea brings into scrutiny the ramifications of such an accident. The release of nuclear radiation could damage the food supply of many nations. (more…)
-
China might react to the Quad and AUKUS with tried and true patience
With the Quad and AUKUS, the US and its allies — especially Australia — are clearly challenging China militarily. All eyes are now on China to see how it will react. It has many options.
-
AUKUS ruffles Australia-France-South-East Asia relations
In one of Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s first foreign policy speeches, he boldy asserted that regarding the struggle between the US and China for regional dominance, “Australia doesn’t have to choose”. (more…)
-
Japan is tempting fate by joining the US-led anti-China coalition
War between China and the US is not inevitable. But it is becoming increasingly likely – and Japan’s actions could be the trigger. Japan and its US backers should not tempt fate. (more…)
-
China’s sanctions on Western think tanks
China’s sanctions on the prominent Washington-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has prompted a
great wailing and wringing of hands. While I empathize with those affected, I do take issue with some of their specific concerns. (more…) -
China Needs to Show More Restraint in the Region
China’s aggressiveness in the region is provoking a US-led backlash that could contain or constrain it. To achieve what it considers its rightful destiny, China needs to exercise more restraint. Slow and steady will win the race.
-
Biden trumps Trump’s truculent China Seas policy
Many had hoped that under new US President Joe Biden, the U.S. would moderate its goals and behaviour vis a vis China, especially where they militarily confront each other in the China Seas. But U.S. China policy has so far not only continued that of former President Donald Trump but even trumped its hypocrisy, condescension, confrontation and militarism.
-
To achieve its goals china needs to show more restraint in the region
The much-anticipated meeting between top US and China foreign policy officials has come and gone with only the great gaps between the two to show for it. Despite growing US angst and opposition, China is proceeding apace toward its goal of regional and eventual world dominance.
-
Why wouldn’t Vietnam want US warships in their waters?
The myth that Vietnam supports a “free and open Indo-Pacific” is based on the false perception of Vietnam as the US’s deputy in South-East Asia. It is time we recognise Vietnam’s autonomy, and respect that they are just as pragmatic as the US or China. (more…)
-
A better Biden approach in the South China Sea
President Joe Biden’s Defense Department has created a taskforce to review US military relations with China and recommend any necessary changes. But what needs to be changed? (more…)
-
Diplomatic finesse in the offing? Possible modifications of Freedom of Navigation Operations under Biden
For years the US has purposely conceptually conflated freedom of navigation for commercial vessels with its claimed freedom for its military assets to threaten and probe weaknesses in its opponents’ defences including those of China.
-
Biden China team puts militarist cart before the diplomatic horse
By doubling down on Trump’s ‘in your face’ pursuit of military domination, the Biden China team seems to be proffering more of the same to the region — instability and a drift toward confrontation and conflict.
-
US allies may tempt fate in South China Sea
China is feeling increasingly cornered–both politically and militarily in the South China Sea. The presence of US allies’ navies and in particular the joining of US FONOPs there will exacerbate that sense of desperation and perhaps prompt a kinetic response from China. They need to weigh carefully the consequences of tempting fate in the South China Sea. (more…)
-
The New ‘Neocolonialism’ in Southeast Asia
In the colonial era in Southeast Asia extending from the 15th to the late 20th century, the Western powers, (including America in the late 19th century) competed for, occupied and governed Southeast Asia. The former colonial masters continued to impose economic, political, cultural and other pressures to control or influence their former colonies. Now, just as they have finally begun to throw off their lingering colonial shackles, a new neocolonial era is in the offing, more conceptual than physical. (more…)
-
US Sanctions on China’s CNOOC Over the Top
The U.S. has sanctioned China’s third-largest oil company apparently because it has explored or drilled in an area disputed by third parties. This precedent could have serious repercussions.
-
The Biden Administration, China and Southeast Asia
With its mixture of arrogance, ignorance and browbeating, the Trump administration has left a dark cloud over US-Southeast Asian relations. But there is a silver lining. This nadir provides a low-hanging fruit of diplomatic success that the Biden administration can easily and quickly pick. (more…)
-
Pompeo’s Fruitless Final Foray in Asia
Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made his latest and probably his last trip in office to Asia. He was on a mission to persuade these countries to join it in an anti-China coalition under the cover of the US concept of a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) .The trip appears to have been a failure based on fallacies.
-
Indonesia Can Lead the Way for ASEAN on US and China – Just say ‘No’ to both.
The U.S. has been pressing many Southeast Asian states to join it in its efforts to politically and militarily contain China. Indonesia – the de facto leader of ASEAN – can show the way for ASEAN members by just saying “no” to requests and actions from both the U.S. and China that it judges are contrary to its interests.
-
Do US Intelligence Probes Against China Violate the ‘International Order’ ?
The U.S. stands accused of violating that ‘international order’ by flying military spy planes under civilian “false flags” of other countries while collecting intelligence on China’s defenses. The U.S. may not only be violating international norms but also undermining confidence that it will abide by any agreements it enters.
-
The South China Sea: Grasping at Straws and Whistling Past the Graveyard
As their struggle for dominance in the region heats up, China and the U.S. are cranking up pressure on Southeast Asian countries to choose between them. As they become ever more desperate, officials and pundits are now ‘grasping at straws’ and ‘whistling past the graveyard’ in response to the rapidly deteriorating political situation in the South China Sea.
-
Who is the Rogue State in the South China Sea?
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has called China a rogue state. Among its alleged international sins are its policy and actions in the South China Sea. But if China is a “rogue” state actor in the South China Sea, it is not the only one. Indeed, the U.S. has also engaged in rampant violations of the international order –including that in the South China Sea. (more…)
-
Scenarios for the South China Sea :The good, the bad and the downright ugly
With ever more tit-for-tat belligerent rhetoric and military posturing, China and the US seem to be slouching towards a showdown in the South China Sea. What might come next can be captured in three scenarios – good, ugly and bad. (more…)
-
US hard line on South China Sea could cause a clash
On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made a confrontational policy statement on the South China Sea. The US followed up the statement with an across the board full court press of public relations, diplomacy and muscle flexing targeting China’s policy and actions in the South China Sea. (more…)
-
Why the US policy initiative in the South China Sea is likely to fail
On 13 July US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced a ‘new’ policy on the South China Sea, declaring that “America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources. The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire.” (more…)
-
The US hypocrisy on the South China Sea and Diego Garcia
The U.S. has publicly accused China of violating the existing international order, bullying other claimants, and crimes against the environment in the South China Sea. China may well be guilty—at least from the US perspective. But the same and more can be said of U.S. behaviour regarding disputed Diego Garcia in the southern Indian Ocean. (more…)