Living standards have fallen recently. The Albanese Government has responded with targeted assistance, but the policy options to alleviate the damage for working families are limited, especially in the short run. However, one readily available policy option would be to reshape the Stage 3 tax cuts due to take effect next July. (more…)
Michael Keating
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Gaza: Israel is winning the battle but losing the war
As was to be expected, Israel is winning the battle for Gaza, albeit at an enormous cost in lives. But what are Israel’s and its backers’ plans for winning the peace, as without an enduring peace settlement the war can never be won. Is a US-led, UN mandated Trusteeship for Palestine the way forward? (more…)
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The structural challenges facing the Chinese and American economies
The two major economies, China and America, have severe structural imbalances between their savings and investment, which could significantly damage their medium-term growth prospects, with consequences for the rest of the world. (more…)
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Australia’s fiscal challenge
Productivity growth will be less than projected in the Intergenerational Report, the budget deficits will be worse, and the Government should be setting the scene for raising more revenue. (more…)
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The APS: Balancing responsiveness and independence
Since the Robodebt saga there have been many calls for a more independent public service that can be trusted to provide competent advice frankly and fearlessly. In that case a key issue is how departmental secretaries are appointed and dismissed. (more…)
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Pearls and Irritations: A unique source of independent comment and analysis
Pearls and Irritations is a unique source of independent comment and analysis. Readers know that they will learn more and have a better and different understanding of important policy issues than is available from the mass media. (more…)
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The RBA is on a knife-edge between recession and inflation
Monetary policy operates with a lag. The pain from increased interest rates is only now starting to really bite. However, the substantial increase in interest rates is reducing demand and thus bringing inflation down. While on the other hand, further interest rate increases add to the risk of a recession. It is time therefore to pause further increases in interest rates. (more…)
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The cost of living crisis – so what would Dutton do?
Peter Dutton incessantly declaims about the cost of living crisis, blaming the government. But what would he do instead? (more…)
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Robodebt and the APS
The Robodebt scandal reflects badly on the Australian Public Service generally, and not just on those immediately responsible. (more…)
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Corruption and the expenditure of public funds
Although Gladys Berejiklian’s intervention to fund projects in her boyfriend’s electorate may not have been illegal, it should have been. The legislation and rules governing the financial management of public programs should be tightened to prevent such pork barrelling. (more…)
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Why the RBA should pause interest rate increases
Inflation is starting to come down. The main reason cited for a further increase in interest rates is the fear of a wage-price spiral. But this is no longer likely. Instead, it is time for a pause in interest rate rises to better assess the future economic outlook. (more…)
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Australia’s international strategy
America is no longer the dominant hegemon in our region. In its place Australia can and should play an important role in establishing a true multipolar system of governance. But that will first require Australia to resolve the present contradiction between our foreign and defence policies. (more…)
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Why is America so reluctant to acknowledge China’s economic power?
The statistical evidence clearly shows that China is the world’s number one economy. Unfortunately, the US and many commentators are unwilling to acknowledge that reality, but the future stability of the region depends on acceptance that we are living in a multipolar world. (more…)
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A competent budget that advances a Labor agenda
Labor has produced a responsible Budget that balances the need to advance traditional Labor priorities while also bringing inflation down. But there remains more to do. (more…)
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Will Labor’s Budget prioritise public services and a caring society?
The biggest choice facing this country is between poor public services and inadequate government income support or more taxes. Unfortunately, I fear that next week’s Budget will seek to avoid this choice. (more…)
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RBA reforms: what difference will they make?
The reforms recommended by the Review of the Reserve Bank have been well received, but it is questionable whether they will ensure that the Bank’s performance improves and that it can avoid the mistakes of the recent past. (more…)
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Why have living standards stagnated and inequality increased?
Failure to adequately tax mining super profits has greatly damaged the Australian economy.
Living standards have stagnated in the last decade or so, while inequality has increased. This article argues that the two are related and that the concentration of profit growth in the mining sector is an obvious reason why the increase in inequality was so much worse here in Australia than elsewhere. (more…)
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AUKUS and Australia’s national sovereignty
The value of AUKUS depends critically on how far it increases the chances of Australia being dragged into an unnecessary and potentially catastrophic war at the behest of the US. (more…)
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The SMH and Age Red Alert is unwarranted and dangerous
The articles published last week by the SMH and Age under the heading, Red Alert, are deeply flawed. The intent seems to panic us into war. But the many assertions are not supported by evidence or credible argument. (more…)
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How best to tackle inflation
After nine successive increases in the Reserve Bank’s cash rate, this article argues that it is time to pause. In addition, given the sources of increased inflation, more targeted measures are called for rather than the blunt instrument of further interest rate increases. (more…)
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Superannuation tax changes and budget repair
The very modest superannuation changes have been well received by most people, but the worry is the unwillingness of the Government to acknowledge, let alone tackle, the much bigger fiscal challenges that lie ahead. (more…)
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A sovereign SSN capability and Australia’s national security strategy
There is no way that the UK or the US would ever contemplate surrendering sovereignty over the control of its military operations to any other power. Australia should not either. If Australia is to acquire a fleet of SSNs, the government needs to negotiate an agreement that avoids counter-productive short cuts and ensures sovereign control of what would be an immensely valuable capability for the Royal Australian Navy. (more…)
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Hard power and Australia’s national security strategy
The previous two parts in this series addressed soft power and Australia’s alliances respectively. The focus of Part 3 is hard power and a discussion of self-reliance and Australia’s evolving military strategy. (more…)
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The role of alliances in Australia’s national security strategy
While alliances and treaties offer some protection against an aggressor, they cannot be counted upon. Australia needs to maintain an independent military capability to deter possible future threats to our independence – not least because we cannot rely on the US in all possible future circumstances. (more…)
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Australia’s National Security Strategy
To paraphrase former US President, Theodore Roosevelt, Australia’s national security is best achieved by talking softly while carrying a formidable stick as a deterrent. (more…)
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Jim Chalmers’ manifesto in favour of values-based capitalism
The Treasurer, Jim Chalmers’, recent essay in The Monthly explores the relationship between the state and the private sector, and how that matters for the problems of our time. (more…)
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Economic growth and our environmental future
A spate of articles have argued protection of the environment is incompatible with population and economic growth. But they do not address how to stop this growth and its public acceptability, nor how more determined efforts to protect the environment can succeed. (more…)
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What does Robodebt say about the APS policy advising capability?
The Royal Commission has focused on the legality of the Robodebt scheme, but the failure of policy judgment and advice seems at least as damaging. (more…)
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Facing a global economic slowdown, the Labor government will need a new strategy to rise to the economic challenges ahead
The Albanese Labor Government has had a very good first six months, however the challenges that lie ahead will be much more demanding. The Government needs to articulate its vision of how our social cohesion depends upon creating an Australian society that is caring and with reasonable equality of opportunity as the foundation for why public expenditure and additional tax revenue is necessary. (more…)
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Morrison’s self-appointment to administer six departments
Morrison’s self-appointment to six portfolios says a lot about his contempt for the quality and integrity of decision making under his government. The response by PM&C officers, who were in the know, also raises questions about how adequately they exercised their responsibility for good government. (more…)