As Australia ages, the care workforce will depend on better training, stronger retention and skilled migration – not a narrow debate about population or monoculture.
Not long ago, I visited an aged care facility. As I spoke with residents and staff, something struck me. The people caring for some of Australia’s most vulnerable citizens reflected the Australia we have become.
I met carers from Nepal, India, the Philippines, China and many other parts of the world. They worked alongside Australian-born colleagues with one shared purpose: caring for older Australians with dignity and compassion.
This was not an unusual experience. It was a glimpse of one of the biggest workforce challenges facing Australia.
Yet this challenge is often missing from our national conversation about migration.
The debate is frequently framed around population numbers, borders and identity. But workforce planning requires a different question: who will care for Australia as our population grows older?
During my nearly 30 years in the Australian Public Service, including my work at Jobs and Skills Australia before my retirement, I saw how workforce challenges evolved from short-term shortages into long-term structural issues. The evidence is clear: Australia’s future workforce needs cannot be met through one policy lever alone.
We need stronger education and training pathways, higher workforce participation, improved retention and a well-managed migration system.
The care economy brings all these challenges together.
Australia’s care economy is already a major employer
Health care and social assistance is now Australia’s largest employing industry. It employs around 2.4 million people, representing approximately 16 per cent of Australia’s workforce. The industry added around 95,000 workers in the past year alone.
This is not simply another growing sector. It is becoming one of the foundations of Australia’s future economy.
The reason for this growth is clear: Australia is ageing.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics projects a continuing increase in the proportion of Australians aged 65 years and over, with particularly strong growth among those aged 85 years and over, the group most likely to require higher levels of care and support.
Longer life expectancy is one of Australia’s greatest achievements. But it also creates a responsibility to plan for the workforce needed to support Australians throughout their lives.
The workforce gap cannot be ignored
The scale of the challenge becomes clearer when we look beyond today’s workforce.
Government modelling of the care and support workforce found that demand could almost double between 2021 and 2050. By 2050, Australia could require around 531,600 full-time equivalent care workers, compared with projected supply of around 320,200, creating a potential gap of more than 211,000 full-time equivalent workers if current trends continue.
This is not a temporary labour shortage. It is a structural workforce challenge.
Australia’s challenge is not a shortage of work. It is ensuring we have enough skilled people to deliver the essential services Australians will need.
Jobs and Skills Australia data shows that the pressure is already visible.
Aged and disabled carers are now one of Australia’s largest occupations, with around 365,000 workers, while registered nurses number more than 360,000.
The challenge is not simply creating more training places. Australia must also make these careers attractive, respected and sustainable.
Care work requires skill, responsibility and compassion. Better career pathways, improved working conditions and stronger retention strategies are essential.
Migration is part of the workforce solution
This brings us to a difficult but necessary conversation.
Migration is often discussed as a question of population size. Workforce planning requires a different question: what skills does Australia need, and who will provide essential services?
The reality is that migrants are already a critical part of Australia’s care economy.
Government analysis shows that people from migrant backgrounds make up around 53 per cent of residential aged care workers, 35 per cent of early childhood education and care workers, and 31 per cent of disability and other care workers.
These workers are not simply filling vacancies. They are supporting services that Australian families depend on every day.
The nurse from the Philippines, the aged care worker from India, the disability support worker from Nepal and the health professional from China are not outside Australia’s story.
They are part of Australia’s workforce story.
The monoculture debate and workforce reality
The migration debate is increasingly becoming a debate about identity and the kind of society Australia wants to be.
Calls for Australia to return to a ‘monoculture’ raise an important question: what does belonging mean in modern Australia?
The workforce reality provides part of the answer.
Australia’s hospitals, aged care facilities, disability services and childcare centres already reflect the society we have become. Australians from different backgrounds work together every day to support the community.
The diversity of our care workforce is not evidence of a failed multicultural experiment. It is evidence of a workforce capability that has developed over decades.
Almost half of Australians have either migrated themselves or have at least one parent born overseas. This diversity brings skills, languages and cultural understanding that are increasingly valuable in a modern economy.
An ageing Australia will also be a more diverse Australia. Many older Australians will benefit from carers who understand their language, culture and life experience.
The challenge for policymakers is not how to reverse diversity. It is how to ensure that diversity contributes fully to a productive, cohesive and inclusive society.
Building the workforce Australia needs
Australia must do more to build its domestic workforce.
We need stronger pathways from education into care careers. We need better retention strategies. We need to value care work as highly skilled work.
But a realistic workforce strategy must also recognise that skilled migration will remain part of the solution.
The choice is not between Australian workers and migrants.
Australia’s future workforce will be built by Australians, including Australians who have come from every corner of the world.
Who will care for Australia?
The care economy is sometimes treated as a social policy issue.
It is much more than that.
It is an economic issue because every nurse, carer, disability support worker and early childhood educator enables others to participate in the workforce. It is a productivity issue because quality care supports families and communities.
The people I met in that aged care facility reminded me of something important.
Australia’s future will not be built by one community alone.
It will be built by Australians of every background working together.
Before we debate migration, we need to ask a more fundamental question: who will care for Australia?
Mainul Haque
Mainul Haque OAM is an economist and former senior Australian public servant with nearly 30 years’ experience shaping and analysing policy across government, academia, and the not-for-profit sector. He is a community leader, board member and non-executive director, and former ACT Multicultural Ambassador. He writes on social cohesion, migration, and public policy, grounding his analysis in practical experience.Mainul has held numerous board and advisory roles across Canberra’s community, education and multicultural sectors, and was awarded the Order of Australia Medal for his significant contribution to the ACT community.