Ukraine and Georgia’s NATO aspirations not only touch a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine Russia’s influence in the region, but it also fears unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face. (more…)
Category: Defence
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Cognitive dissonance in Crimea?
“What convinces masses are not facts, and not even invented facts, but only the consistency of the system of which they are presumably part.” Hannah Arendt (more…)
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Ukraine: Putin’s war or proxy war?
The claim that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a proxy war is not borne out by recent history, nor supported by Russian democrats, Ukrainians of all stripes nor most Western Russia specialists. They mostly see its roots in an authoritarian Russian state and the revanchist views of Putin and his acolytes. (more…)
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An Australian battery Industry, or a dodgy AUKUS scam?
Australia is now at a key point in our Defence major project acquisitions planning. We are looking at a very dodgy AUKUS scam which will be the driver of our largest ever Defence expenditure. Brian Toohey in this publication recently pointed out some of the serious problems of buying obsolete 2nd hand nuclear submarines from the US who cannot meet their own needs and buying nonexistent British AUKUS nuclear submarines delivered over budget and sometime in the distant future. (more…)
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Ambitions of NATO in Asia are simply a delusion of grandeur
The North Atlantic military alliance has no business in the continent and it should just stop going on about the so-called China threat. (more…)
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Jenin attack created 4,000 new refugees, part of the endless cycle of Palestinian displacement since 1948
The Israeli army’s recent attack on Jenin refugee camp resulted in 13 deaths (12 Palestinians, including four children, and one Israeli soldier killed by suspected friendly fire). An additional 143 Palestinians were injured, with 20 in critical condition, and up to 4,000 displaced. (more…)
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Taiwan solution is diplomacy rather than nuclear hell
I have yet to meet an Australian voter willing to go to war over Taiwan. Further, I haven’t heard of any Australian military leader with a clear idea of Australia’s role in a showdown between China and the US. (more…)
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AUKUS: A US device to lock Australia into the anti-China coalition
Around a week ago the Financial Review confirmed what many observers had taken for granted: the US offered nuclear propulsion technology to Australia under the AUKUS arrangements in order to lock it into the anti-China coalition. (more…)
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Sinking Billions – Revolving Doors – Part 2
The Australian Defence Department’s new Frigates project is a jobs merry-go-round for former military officers, bureaucrats, and weapons makers. (more…)
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Good news on nukes: US can’t sell Australia nuclear subs
The good news is the US can’t sell Australia the three to five used Virginia class nuclear subs that the Albanese government has announced it will buy. Nor will it sell us any new ones. (more…)
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Why is Australia so scared?
The world has just spent two decades paralysed by fear. Ever since 11 September 2001, the ‘war on terror’ has changed the lives of most people for the worse. Millions have been killed, either by terrorists or by militarists fighting them. Fearing violence, many people have fled their homelands as refugees. Others have absorbed repeated warnings about Islamist terrorism, and fearfully accepted that the response to it has to be militarism. (more…)
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American cluster bombs in Ukraine
According to the UN Human Rights Office, 9,083 civilians have been killed in 500 days of fighting in Ukraine, and 15,779 wounded. These figures are likely to increase dramatically once American cluster munitions are deployed. (more…)
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They lied about Afghanistan. They lied about Iraq. And they are lying about Ukraine
The U.S. public has been conned, once again, into pouring billions into another endless war. (more…)
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The Wagner coup: Strategic setback or military deception?
The Wagner coup equation doesn’t compute. It just doesn’t add up. Herbert Wulf gave us a concise summary of the surreal 24 hours that gripped the world. But there are missing pieces of the puzzle that we haven’t been given. And now we learn that the Wagner boss is back in St Petersburg, Russia. (more…)
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Propaganda: The Western media’s “Taiwanese” airspace narrative
When it comes to propaganda the Chinese could learn a thing or two from the Western media. (more…)
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De-risking Australia: separating our vital interests from America’s
Does it really matter that Australia’s defence policy has no moorings, and is created unaware of past pain, lessons and policy responses? By agents with unknown interests. And that American influence has been ushered into this void, most recently by Minister Marles? (more…)
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Sinking billions – undergunned and over priced – part 1
Missing records, billions in over-runs, conflicts of interest, and flawed ships. How the Australian Defence Department’s new frigates project is a boondoggle for a British weapons-maker. (more…)
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AUKUS and the Titanic mistake
AUKUS submarines will be highly detectable and therefore strategically useless. (more…)
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Why propaganda works so well in Australia
The past five years of intensive anti-China propaganda, highly aligned as it is with government objectives, have been instrumental in propping up public support for AUKUS and the Australian government’s flawed foreign and defence policies. Why have Australians been so susceptible to the influence of that propaganda? (more…)
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Could AUKUS be the catalyst?
It is difficult to recall a time in Australia which was more propitious than now for the launch of a new Australian Political Party. (more…)
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Propaganda works: But Australians still do not want war
The latest Lowy Institute Poll reflects a range of complicated and confusing Australian reactions to our place in the world; the threats we face; and what we think we should do about them. (more…)
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Prigozhin’s Insurrection; U.S. admits defeat in war on Russia, China
Some thoughts on the insurrection attempt in Russia. I wonder who or what lured Yevgeny Prigozhin into staging this farce. In twelve or so hours things are likely to have calmed down. ‘Western’ anal-cysts will spend weeks fantasising about their wished for outcome which, of course, was never to happen. (more…)
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Ukraine and the battle for Skaro
Over the past eighteen months, I’ve often found myself under scrutiny for not outrightly condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Any acknowledgment of Russia’s stance—that the hasty expansion of NATO played a role in the current conflict—earns labels: indifferent to Ukraine’s plight, a “Putin” apologist, a victim of Kremlin misinformation. (more…)
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Fixing an American mess: China, Iran, Pakistan link up to secure Afghanistan
Beijing, Tehran, and Islamabad know that their mutual goal of ‘peaceful development’ and expanded Asian trade routes will be unattainable without solving the terrorism dilemma in neighbouring Afghanistan. (more…)
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AUKUS: Paul Monk praises elitism, derides Australia’s vibrant civil society
In an opinion piece published in The Weekend Australian (10 June 2023), Paul Monk offers his response to critics of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine agreement. A central focus of his critique is this open letter signed by more than 100 academics. As two of the principal co-authors of the letter, we requested a right of reply, but received no response from The Australian’s Opinion Editor. The following is our rebuttal to Monk’s criticisms of the letter. (more…)
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Chasing shadows in Cuba
Why does Washington believe they have the right to conduct joint military exercises off the Chinese Pacific coast, but will not tolerate even the barest hint of those activities by China and Cuba in ‘their’ maritime neighbourhood?
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US strategists plan to destroy Taiwan’s largest chip manufacturer
Should the US go to war with China, Taiwan’s largest chip maker, TSMC will be the first target to be blown up, according to a strategist at the US Air Force’s Air War College. Not by China, but by the US military. (more…)
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AUKUS and the division of Labor
Delegates at Labor’s National Conference in August will have to pay more attention than usual to foreign and defence policy. Dissent on AUKUS is spreading, while Palestine is a promise to keep. (more…)
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A profound failure to understand and accept strategic threats
The Defence Strategic Review reflects a profound failure of the Australian leadership to understand and accept the breadth and complexity of the range of strategic threats confronting Australia, the region, and the world. How can a realistic defence policy be determined without first understanding the risks it is supposed to address? (more…)
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The mainstream media’s unwillingness to challenge U.S. militarisation
The Washington Post finally conceded in an editorial recently that the United States must “spend smarter” when it comes to defence. Instead of looking for ways to cut defence spending, however, the Post simply wants to spend differently. It favours more spending on conventional and nuclear-armed submarines, despite the huge U.S. advantage in both power projection and lethality in air and naval resources. The Post favours greater investment in cyber defences and secure communications as well as in “predictive analytics” and artificial intelligence. And, of course, the Post joins the chorus of political and pundit voices warning that China “continues to creep toward Taiwan,” currently the main driver of militarisation. (more…)