Category: Defence

The Trump  Administration is preparing a new Nuclear Posture Review, (NPR) to be completed by early 2018. The instruction under which it is proceeding is to make US nuclear weapons more useable, in a variety of situations. It is being preceded by a massive program of new nuclear weapons development. Russia is also embarked on a similar program of expansion of its nuclear weapons capability. It seems that these weapons are being designed to be used more widely, not simply to serve as a deterrent force. (more…)

Prime Minister Turnbull recently visited the Philippines to attend regional economic and trade talks attended also by US President Trump. Given the presence of both, what do we know about their commitment of military assistance to their host, President Duterte of the Philippines, to ‘contain’ insurgency in that country?  (more…)

The world is worrying about nuclear weapons more than at any time since the frightening days of Reagan and Brezhnev, and with good reason.  We are all hoping that Kim Jong-un is rational with no ambition for suicide.  And at the same time, we are reduced to hoping that the American military will constrain Donald Trump’s impulses to reach for the nuclear launch button.  Leading politicians in South Korea and Japan are talking up the need for their own nuclear weapons, and Donald Trump is not saying no. So, it’s hardly surprising that 122 countries voted at the United Nations in July to pass the Treaty to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons.  Rather more surprisingly, but gratifyingly, the 2017 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to the Melbourne-born International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) for its work leading to the nuclear ban treaty.  (more…)

When it comes to the defence of Australia, much is made of the ANZUS treaty. Compared to other treaties, for example the NATO treaty, where an attack on one is explicitly regarded as an attack on all and consultation, assistance and the use of armed force all are clearly referred to, the ANZUS treaty is rather pallid. It promises consultation and the rather vague “act to meet the common danger in accordance with constitutional processes”.  (more…)

Heavily redacted documents produced in accordance with Freedom of Information laws appear to imply that the Australian government has full knowledge of current and future operations taking place at Pine Gap and that it is given the opportunity to approve or deny proposed future conduct carried out at the base. This may have serious ramifications for Australia, a signatory to the Rome Statute, in any future proceedings in the International Criminal Court. (more…)

Ramesh Thakur would welcome the shock and awe of PM Turnbull and Foreign Minister Bishop backing Gorbachev’s plea for a summit to restore US–Russia relations to normalcy and lining up with Iran, the Europeans, China and Russia in recommitting to the Iran nuclear deal as a rare triumph of diplomacy over warmongering. (more…)

Could Australia’s big new $70 billion submarines sink its big new $35 billion frigates? Could the frigates sink the subs? The questions are worth answering before we spend these huge sums on potentially vulnerable frigates and subs. The subs cost, in particular, is unnecessarily high due to the political decision to design and build bespoke subs in Australia. (more…)

At the National Press Club in Canberra on 27 September 2017, Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the ANU, launched an independent report by Insight Economics on Australia’s future submarine (FSM). The report, Australia’s Future Submarine: Getting This Key Capability Right, was commissioned by Gary Johnston, a Sydney businessman and owner of the website, submarinesforaustralia. (more…)

Last week at the National Press Club, Hugh White launched a report by Insight Economics, Australia’s Future Submarine: Getting This Key Capability Right, of which I was the principal author. The report was sponsored by Gary Johnston, a Sydney businessman with no commercial interest in the SEA 1000 Future Submarine (FSM) program but an abiding concern with the waste of taxpayers’ money in failed defence acquisition projects. (more…)

Major defence decisions have long been made with a minimum amount of consultation. That is certainly true of the recent decision to give the French Naval Group a monopoly over the design and build of Australia’s next submarine. The way this decision was made seems to reflect a long-standing view that civilians are not competent and cannot be allowed to question military expertise. This post suggests this is not good enough as many relevant considerations in defence planning and acquisitions range well beyond military expertise. (more…)

In response to criticisms from Amnesty International that the Iraq government and coalition carried out “disproportionate” and unlawful attacks to take back Mosul, a Senior British Commander, Major Gen Jones, said recently that ‘it is naive to think a city such as Mosul, with a population of 1.75 million, could be liberated without any civilian casualties while fighting an enemy that “lacks all humanity”. That pragmatic approach is what our government would have us accept in relation to our involvement in Iraq until now. (more…)

The Navy could be left without a submarine fleet for up to 20 years because of a “wildly ambitious” schedule to replace the ageing Collins Class fleet, an independent report has found. (more…)