Category: Defence

  • JOSEPH CAMILLERI. New series. We can say ‘no’ to the Americans.

     Australia at the crossroads of time and imagination 

    Can Australia rise to the challenge of a rapidly transforming world or is it bound to the myths of a bygone age? (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. New series. We can say ‘no’ to the Americans.

    We should have a very clear and unromantic view of what we conceive to be the ‘national interest’.

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  • GARRY WOODARD. New series. We can say ‘no’ to the Americans.

    We have said No to the Americans: Robert Menzies

    Saying No to America was not an upfront characteristic of Menzies’ foreign policy, based as it was on supporting and attracting the support of ‘great and powerful friends’. Supplementing that was his politically profitable propaganda about threats from Asia. (more…)

  • RICHARD WOOLCOTT. New series. We can say ‘no’ to the Americans.

     The present situation offers the Turnbull Government – or its successor -an opportunity to move beyond policies towards Asia based on fear of China and on compliance with United States wishes.  (more…)

  • RICHARD BUTLER. New series: We can say ‘no’ to the Americans.

    Australian Foreign Policy; We can say “No” to the US.

    We must end the interpretation of the ANZUS Alliance which leads us to accompany the US in whatever interventions it mounts in international affairs, and we must stop misleading the Australian people on the nature of the Alliance. (more…)

  • CAVAN HOGUE. New series: We can say ‘no’ to the Americans?

    Of all American allies Australia is the most subservient. A problem is that we have harped on the loyal little ally theme to the Americans so much that they take us for granted but we have not always toed the line. Admittedly, Gough Whitlams’ relative independence caused ructions in Washington but there were special circumstances. In that case, the CIA apparently considered action but nothing was done. (more…)

  • MARK BEESON. New series: We can say ‘no’ to the Americans?

    Getting to ‘no’

    Ideas have their moments. The way we think about the world is partly a reflection of who ‘we’ are and partly a consequence of the times we live in. One of the biggest ideas that has informed Australian foreign policy since it became formally independent is that we live in an especially insecure apart of the world, a long way from our natural allies. (more…)

  • We need a transformational foreign policy.

    The following submission to the Hon. Julie Bishop for the White Paper on Foreign Affairs and Trade has also been sent to the Prime Minister, the Leader of the Opposition and Senator Wong, as well as selected MPs and Senators.
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  • TRAVERS McLEOD. General Mattis, the new US Defence Secretary – the right choice for an ahistorical President

    With General Petraeus, General Mattis changed the mindset of the US military. Let’s hope that if duty and ethics call, Mattis can change the President’s mind too.
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  • Dealing with China

    China will look to play a greater role in existing institutions and to craft new institutions and arrangements which place it at the centre in a pattern perhaps reminiscent of the Middle Kingdom … We must continue to pursue policies designed to avoid invidious choices [between China and the US].  (more…)

  • PAUL BARRATT. Managing ANZUS in the age of Trump. Quo vadis series.

     

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Summary.  Australia should do a ‘really deep stocktake of what is in our vital national interests and what we are prepared to sign up to’ . (more…)

  • The Global Strategic Landscape – present realities, and prospects under Trump. Quo vadis series.

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Australia should call on all the nuclear weapon states – in particular, the two major arsenal-holders US and Russia – to return to the prudent protocols and courtesies of classical great power diplomacy, within the protocols and disciplines of the UN Security Council system of global collective security. (more…)

  • ALISON BROINOWSKI. Trump – Seize the moment. Quo vadis series.

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Summary. We have a unique moment to do something Australia has never done – make a rational distinction between our national interests and our enduring regard for the US. (more…)

  • CAVAN HOGUE. Has the alliance got us into more trouble than it has got us out of? Quo vadis series.

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Summary. Trump does give us an opportunity to do things we should have done long ago. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. ANZUS – Reality check coming soon! Quo vadis series.

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Summary. We need diplomacy of the highest order, not military interventions which, as we have seen, generally make conflict situations worse. (more…)

  • RAMESH THAKUR. ANZUS in the time of Trump. Quo vadis series.

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Summary. Trump has the potential to mark an inflection point in the evolution of Australia as a self-confident and independent Indo-Pacific actor.

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  • GARRY WOODARD. Trump and ANZUS. Quo vadis series.

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Summary. Will Australia allow itself to be drawn into Sino-American tensions in the incorrect belief that it has no choice under ANZUS or ‘five eyes’. (more…)

  • RICHARD WOOLCOTT. The Trump Presidency and Australia. Quo vadis series.

     

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS

     Summary. Our relationship with the US is of course very important and substantial. This does not mean that we should be seen as not responding quickly to the greatly changed world of 2016. (more…)

  • MICHAEL KEATING. Donald Trump and the ANZUS Alliance – Quo vadis series.

    Quo vadis – Australian foreign policy and ANZUS.

    Summary. Dennis Richardson, the Secretary of the Defence Department, recently informed us that the ANZUS Alliance was ongoing, irrespective of who was President of the United States. Of course, this is true, but so what? What was the point of Richardson’s admonition, and what was he hoping to achieve? It would be most unfortunate If Richardson’s comment was a crude attempt to stop the much-needed debate in Australia about how we should adjust to changing circumstances in the Asia-Pacific region and develop a more independent foreign policy as advocated in numerous articles posted on this blog. To my mind it is now more important than ever for Australia to forge an independent foreign policy, given the uncertainties attaching to future American policies and priorities under President Trump. (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE. Quo vadis – the future of the US-Australian alliance. Part 3.

     

    Summary. Is war in the American DNA?

    In his book ‘Dangerous allies’, Malcolm Fraser warned us how we can be drawn into US conflicts that are of no immediate concern to us. He warned of ‘dangerous strategic dependence’ on the US.

    The US has a long history of involvement in wars. In  Washingtonblog.com in May 2014, and which was carried by the SMH, it showed the number of wars that the US had been involved in since its independence in 1776. The data was well documented. According to this report, the US has been at war 93% of the time since 1776. It added (more…)

  • Quo vadis – the future of the US-Australian alliance. Part 2.

    Summary.  Malcolm Fraser warned us that we no longer have an independent capacity to stay out of America’s wars. (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE. Quo vadis – the future of the US-Australian alliance.

    Next week I will run a series of short articles entitled ‘Quo vadis – the future of the US-Australian alliance’.

    In anticipation of that series, I will be posting three articles this week.  Part 1, posted today, is by Michael McKinley concerning our reliance on the US relationship. He argues that whilst US military power remains strong, the US is in decline in many ways.

    Part 2 will based on comments by the late Malcolm Fraser in which he said “We no longer have an independent capacity to stay out of America’s wars”.

    I will write the third article, Part 3,  about the US being almost always at war and the powerful and persuasive influence of the military/industrial and intelligence complex in the US.  John Menadue.

  • MICHAEL McKINLEY. Quo vadis – the future of the US-Australian alliance. Part 1:

    Summary. Donald Trump, Dylan Thomas, and the Australia US Alliance – A great power in decline. (more…)

  • RICHARD BUTLER. Our white man’s media.

    In this blog, I will be posting occasional pieces under the title ‘our white man’s media’ about the inadequate coverage of important issues in world affairs and in particular, in our region. So much of our media coverage reflects the interests and views of the US. 

    Is the Wretched situation in Yemen of no interest to Australians?

    The civil war in Yemen has been underway for over a year. In 2015 Saudi Arabia led a coalition of 3 other Arab states and Pakistan in invading and attacking Yemen, its southern neighbor. Saudi’s role was the significantly largest one and by now virtually the only one. What tied this group together was their interest in opposing the growth of Shia influence in the region stretching from Bahrain in the Gulf to Syria in the west. In plain geopolitical terms, the growth of Iranian influence.

    The invasion was assisted by the US, mainly through air assistance. (more…)

  • MARK BEESON. Trump’s America: the irresponsible stakeholder?

    Will China fill the void that will be created by Trump?

    How times change. A decade or so ago, former World Bank president and deputy secretary of state Robert Zoellick suggested to China that it needed to become a “responsible stakeholder”. Even at the time this advice looked slightly condescending and patronising. Now it looks bizarrely out of kilter with a rapidly evolving international order.

    In the twilight of the Obama administration, Xi Jinping is the most important leader at the current APEC summit in Peru. His keynote speech in support of trade liberalisation means he is also the current standard-bearer for continuing economic integration and the sorts of institutions that are supposed to facilitate it. (more…)

  • MUNGO MacCALLUM. Trump, Turnbull and ANZUS.

    So with a single bound across the Pacific, Trumpery has come to Australia – or at least to our elected leaders, which is the troubling bit.

    Last week Malcolm Turnbull was inveighing against the elites – yes, Malcolm Bligh Turnbull, the multimillionaire lord of Wentworth, Mr Harbourside Mansion himself.

    His complaint that the “elitist” ABC was talking about section 18c – the ABC, not the manic Murdoch press which has spent relentless months on the same subject until Turnbull was forced to throw a chunk of raw meat to his right wing predators in the form of an inquiry, and the forthcoming dismemberment of the unlucky Gillian Triggs, who has been designated as official blood sacrifice. (more…)

  • MACK WILLIAMS. Trump : Getting our priorities right

     

    Is China going to fill the void?

    The media-hyped flurry to try to establish the likely policy guidelines of the Trump administration is timely and natural but should be approached very cautiously. Not only is it virtually impossible at this moment to reach many definitive conclusions it is no less easy to identify the likely key players in the new administration – even within the close-in transition team as the sacking of Governor Christie and his cohort has illustrated. At the same time Australia needs to undertake a proper review of the major strategic trends in our region which have been developing for some years – and pre-date Trump. Concerns about the implications for our region stemming from Trump’s comments in the campaign certainly served to accelerate those trends. But we are where we are today because of the fundamentally changing strategic scene. (more…)

  • RICHARD BUTLER. Attack on Mosul : Australian Involvement?

     

    There does not appear to be a plan for the political disposition of Mosul, if and when the Iraqi/US led coalition frees it from ISIS. The political, economic, and confessional interests at stake have attracted all regional powers. Australia’s reasons for taking part, as the 4th largest contributor to the coalition, need clarification.

    Almost a month ago, the Iraqi led attack on Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, began. Its aim is to drive ISIS out of that city. In addition to the Iraqi forces, this action is being joined by Peshmerga ( Kurdish ) troops, and Shia militia, supported by Iran. (more…)

  • ANDREW FARRAN. Under Trump  – A moment of truth may be approaching  

     

    Indications are that a Trump Administration will expect America’s allies to pay their way to a greater extent than former President Nixon’s expectations were pursuant to the Guam Doctrine of 1969 mid-point in the Vietnam War.

    By and large it could be argued that Australia has paid its way – through Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq since that time. All defeats. Will the balance of wider interests be more or less benign in the coming years?

    The next year may see the return of ‘nation’ states. Elections in 2017 may bring in a swag of far right governments in Europe. The greatest risk is Marine Le Pen in France which would presage or bring forward the inevitable break up of the EU.  (more…)

  • GEOFF MILLER. Trump, Australia and the South China Sea.

     

    The Trump victory has led to justified concern in Australia, as elsewhere, and few would carp at what seems to have been a successful and cordial talk between him and our Prime Minister. It’s a good thing that Trump thought enough of the relationship to include Australia among the countries to receive an early call.

    However, we need to be careful in considering our responses, even to a welcome approach. In characterising the conversation, Malcolm Turnbull talked about the enduring nature of the ANZUS Treaty and the Australian-American relationship, which he said transcended whoever was President or Prime Minister in our respective countries. He went on to talk about the defence relationship, how Trump intended a major expansion in US naval strength, and how that would mesh in with our own projected naval expansion (even though our new submarines aren’t going to be in service for decades). It seems that references to the South China Sea, and protecting freedom of navigation and commerce, may have come into the conversation. (more…)