Category: Economy

  • PAUL BUDDE. The financial future of NBN?

    By late 2016 – seven years after the launch of the NBN – over two million premises were able to connect to the NBN. So far three-quarters have access to FttH (fibre to the home), the remainder to wireless and satellite networks. The revised rollout of the so-called MTM (multi-technology mix) based on FttN and HFC) only began in earnest in 2016. The NBN company has now fine-tuned its rollout strategy and is set to extend the network by 40,000 premises a week; but from here on FttH will play only a minor role, mainly in greenfield installations. (more…)

  • Anti-global backlash is realigning politics across the West.

    In the WorldPost, Nouriel Roubini writes “Across the West establishment parties of the Right and the Left are being disrupted – if not destroyed from the inside.  Within such parties, the losers from globalisation are finding champions of anti-globalisation that are challenging the formal mainstream orthodoxy.” (more…)

  • MICHAEL KEATING. The Future Outlook for Economic Reform

     

    In a recent article in the Sydney Morning Herald, Ross Gittins pronounced that we are ‘staring at the end of the era of economic reform. It has ended because it is seen by many voters as no more than a cover for advancing the interests of the rich and powerful at their expense.’

    Gittins then goes on to cite a lot of evidence that people are disaffected. Thus the size of the support for Trump in the US and Brexit in the UK, and to a lesser extent, the success of minor parties favouring more economic autarchy in Australia, all point to a threat to economic reforms aimed at deregulation and open markets. In addition, Gittins argues that the reform agenda has been captured by the supporters of small government bent on privatising those services that remain funded by government, often with what Gittins claims to be dubious results or worse.

    But according to Gittins, ‘the reformers’ greatest failure has been [to] … ignore their reforms’ effect on fairness’. Indeed, ‘at a time when technology and globalisation are shifting the distribution of market income in favour of the top few per cent of earners they’re pushing “reforms” to make the tax system less redistributive’.

    There is much that resonates in Gittins critique of the present reform agenda and why it is foundering. Nevertheless, I would like to offer a somewhat different perspective. (more…)

  • GEOFF HISCOCK. Long-awaited tax change raises tantalising prospect for Indian economy

     

    The tantalising prospect of a 10% growth rate is on India’s economic horizon in the next few years, now that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has won legislative backing for the long-awaited goods and services tax.

    On August 3, India’s upper house approved a bill to bring in a nationwide GST, creating a much simpler tax regime that will help create a unified market of 1.3 billion consumers. In theory, interstate trade barriers will come down, enabling the faster and cheaper delivery of goods across the country.

    But – and it is a massive but – there are numerous obstacles to the introduction next year of what most economists agree is the most important Indian tax reform for decades. Modi still needs more than half the states to approve a constitutional amendment, parliament will need to pass at least one more bill and a special GST council needs to be set up. (more…)

  • LUKE FRASER. Infrastructure – a partner in our labours.

     

    The Senate must be permitted to help avoid major infrastructure debacles. 

    Many recent posts in Pearls and Irritations have focussed on democratic renewal. Some have decried a lack of trust and competence in our political class. At the same time our retiring Reserve Bank governor advises government should spend more on productive infrastructure.

    Given that the Australian Senate looks harder and harder to deal with for any government and public faith in major infrastructure projects is at a low ebb, how do we proceed? (more…)

  • JEFF WATERS. ABC journalists and business.

     

    Yeah, sure, let’s ’embed’ ABC journalists in businesses, but don’t forget the unions, or Nauru.

    The recent review of ABC business coverage may have come down in favour of the National Broadcaster, but, as has been suggested in the media, any move to “job swap” or “embed” ABC journalists within private corporations is nonsensical. (more…)

  • MICHAEL KEATING. Taxation Reform

     

    Taxation reform is a continuing and topical issue. With a new government and the need for budget repair I am reposting below an earlier article in the policy series by Michael Keating.  John Menadue

    Oliver Wendell Holmes, the great American jurist, is reputed to have said, ‘I like to pay taxes. In this way I buy civilisation.’ However, in contrast to Holmes’ noble ideal, too often today we hear people railing about the burden of taxation, as though it is in some way an unfortunate even illegitimate imposition upon ourselves, our economy, and our way of life.

    Lower taxation has been embraced by all political parties without any evidence that, given our already low starting point, less taxation will in fact lead to higher economic growth, let alone pay for itself. Indeed there is no evidence that the advanced economies with high growth rates of per capita income have lower levels of taxation. Nor have past cuts in our income tax led to faster growth, such as when the top income tax rate was reduced from 60 per cent to 45 per cent. (more…)

  • MARIE SEGRAVE. Exploitation of foreign workers.

     

    On Tuesday night, SBS’ Insight program aired concerns about temporary migrant labour exploitation. These issues tend to come to national attention when a particular case is exposed, but mostly they are not seen as national priorities – and, as such, the response is generally reactive rather than proactive.

    The exploitation to have attracted attention most recently often involves student-visa holders, working-holiday-visa holders and 457-visa holders.

    Just a little under ten years ago, many of these situations would more immediately have been framed as issues of labour trafficking. But, since then, there has been a shift away from identifying and responding to these cases as potential slavery or trafficking offences, and instead focusing on labour exploitation as an issue for the Fair Work Ombudsman to review and/or redress. (more…)

  • JEFF KEHOE. Can capitalism be redeemed?

    In this article in the Harvard Business Review, Jeff Kehoe poses the future of capitalism. He says

    Although it may be necessary to treat inequality as an economic problem, it is not sufficient. The US as a country needs to ask and answer some basic questions. Who gets to set the rules? What value should they reflect? What’s fair? What do we owe to one another?

    See link for full article: https://hbr.org/2016/07/can-capitalism-be-redeemed

  • MICHAEL KEATING. Improving employment participation.

    This is a repost of an article by Michael Keating last year which was part of the Fairness, Opportunity and Security policy series.  John Menadue

    The rate of employment participation and the productivity of those employees together determine the average per capita incomes of Australians, and therefore our living standards. In addition, being employed creates many of the social contacts and sense of self-esteem that are vital to our individual well-being. While arguably the best way to reduce inequality is to create the conditions where those disadvantaged people who are presently on the margin of the workforce get work, or in other cases get more work.

    In short increasing employment participation is most important if governments want to improve living standards, individual well-being, and equality. (more…)

  • LINDA SIMON. Australian VET in crisis! Are there lessons to be learned from the UK?

     

    For some the crisis in vocational education and training (VET) and the fate of TAFE was a critical issue in the recent Australian Federal elections. For others it hardly made the radar. Unfortunately a number of those others included members of the re-elected Federal Government. Karen Andrews is now the fifth Minister or Assistant Minister responsible for VET since September 2013, bringing another new face to the sector. (more…)

  • MICHAEL KEATING. The role and responsibilities of government.

     

    With the election of the new government, I have decided to repost several articles from our policy series that are still relevant.  One of these is by Michael Keating (below) on the role and responsibilities of government.  John Menadue

    Different possible conceptions of the responsibilities and roles of government are an important backdrop to the policies that will be examined later in this series of articles. The purpose of the present article is to show that despite the ideological debate between the extremes on the Right and the Left of the political spectrum, in practice:

    • The responsibilities of governments have changed little in the last thirty years
    • The roles have changed, but changes in regulatory regimes and the ‘marketisation’ of some services has enabled governments to better fulfil their continuing responsibilities. 

    (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE. Democratic renewal.

    Vested interests and the subversion of the public interest.

    There are many key public issues that we must address such as climate change, growing inequality, tax avoidance, budget repair, an ageing population, lifting our productivity and our treatment of asylum seekers.

    But our capacity to address these and other important issues is becoming very difficult because of the power of vested interests with their lobbying power to influence governments in a quite disproportionate way. (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE. Democratic Renewal.

     

    Our loss of trust in institutions.

    We speak often about the need for new ideas and policies to fill the void in the public debate.

    We will be examining these issues in this series Fairness, Opportunity and Security.

    But I think there is a prior problem.  We need political reform to restore trust in our political system and our polity. (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE. Democratic Renewal.

     

    In the series, Fairness, Opportunity and Security that Michael Keating and I edited there were several articles that are still particularly relevant. Several of them deal with the disappointment many of us feel about our institutions and the lack of trust in parliament and politicians. I will be reposting some of these articles over the next week. I still believe that democratic renewal is essential in Australia today. John Menadue

    Role of government. The importance of values. (Repost)

    Good government must be based on some broadly shared values that inspire and enthuse us.

    We can accept that our leaders must make some compromises from time to time, but we need to know ‘what they stand for’. We look for leaders who have conviction. (more…)

  • IAN McAULEY. Problems of Private Health Insurance.

    The PHI industry continues to make two invalid assumptions about private health care. 

    The first is that governments are intrinsically high cost and bureaucratic and that the private sector is unquestionably more efficient. This is patently not true. The least efficient health service in the world, the US, is based on private health insurance and the private sector. The most efficient health service in the world is the National Health Service in Britain which is based on a single public funder. In 2014 ,Ramsey Health,the principle beneficiary of subsidised PHI paid its CEO $31 m ,the highest remuneration in the country and much higher  even than the CEOs of the banks..Further ,Gap Insurance offered by PHI companies has underwritten record increases in specialist remuneration. PHI drives high health care costs.

    The second assumption is that the PHI industry assumes that public health services are for the poor. This is an implicit rejection of the principle that we need a quality and universal health system which is available for all. The PHI sector wants to push us into a two-tiered health system – one for the rich and the other for the poor. 

    Ian McAuley addressed many of these issues in a paper that he recently delivered to a health insurance summit.  The summary of his paper follows with a link to the full article at the end.  John Menadue. 

     

    Summary of paper to accompany presentation to the 2016 Health Insurance Summit, Sydney, 28 July 2016

    Private health insurance has generally been quarantined from the economic scrutiny that successive governments have applied to other sectors of the economy. Rather than being based on any firm economic model, financial support for private health insurance has been based on partisan preferences, with Coalition governments notably more enthusiastic than Labor governments to support it.

    So it stands as part of the complex mix that characterises our health care funding. There is no integrated health care “system” in Australia: rather we have a set of programs with different legacies, different loci of responsibility and different funding principles.

    Within that mix private health insurance has taken its place, and there is an assumption that the funding of private hospitals is inexorably linked to private insurance.

    Because governments have been becoming increasingly concerned about the budgetary costs of the private health insurance rebate, they are shifting towards the incentives in the Medicare Levy Surcharge as a way to support private insurance.

    This makes assistance to private insurance more opaque, particularly in a political environment where there is undue emphasis on fiscal outcomes (rather than economic management). Use of such hidden assistance is a retreat to the policies of the 1960s, before the cost of tariff and quota assistance for manufacturing was brought to account.

    In the absence of economic analysis of the costs and benefits of private insurance, governments, particularly Coalition governments, have argued to defend its privileged position – relieving pressure on public hospitals, providing choice, protecting the “private system” – and have suggested that publicly-funded health should be re-defined as distributive welfare for the needy rather than as a shared universal service.

    But as a means of sharing health care costs, private insurance is a high-cost and inequitable mechanism to achieve what the tax system and a single insurer can do far better. Its administrative overheads are high, and it lacks the incentives or capacity to control moral hazard and to contain health care costs.

    There is mounting evidence, revealed in the recent election campaign, that public opinion is coming to align with economists’ view that a single insurer such as Medicare is the most appropriate way to share health care costs. There is little point in saving the public $1.00 in taxes paid to the ATO if instead they are cajoled into paying $1.10 or $1.50 to private insurers – essentially privatised tax collectors.

    Australia needs exposure of the cost of support for PHI, and, an open debate about health care funding – not the emotive “private” vs “public” rhetoric that often takes place, but rather the basic question about how much we should take personal responsibility for paying for our own health care, without insurance, and how much we should share through Medicare. If the options are explained clearly Australians may accept a reasonable regime of co-payments, so long as they are not seen as a wedge to allow private insurance to destroy Medicare.

    Ian McAuley, Fellow, Centre for Policy Development

    For a link to Ian McAuley’s full paper, see http://www.ianmcauley.com/academic/confs/phijul2016.pdf

    (more…)

  • JOHN AUSTEN. Is there a simple way of dealing with national infrastructure issues? Yes, but it is not a simple matter of adopting Infrastructure Australia’s ‘project list’.

    The argument

    Recent pieces offered a seemingly simple way forward to deal with national infrastructure issues.

    It should be simple. All parties should commit to (Infrastructure Australia’s) “project” list – in part or in full – and then stop spending. These “projects” have been properly assessed and found to be worth doing, and specifically worth doing by the federal government because they have some national significance. [1]

     

    Indeed, governments should limit project spending to proposals that have been properly and publicly assessed. We are entitled to know what is being done in our name and why. (more…)

  • JOHN AUSTEN. The High Court – The Williams case and transport

    This article expands on previous comments that the Williams (No. 2) case is reason to reconsider Commonwealth engagement in land transport. [1]

    The challenge to Government spending programs

    Williams (No. 2) was the third recent challenge in the High Court to Commonwealth Government spending.

    Before these three cases it was widely assumed the Government could spend as it sees fit. Governments worked on that assumption using the equivalent of Jack Sparrow’s compass to guide them; Conservative administrations set course towards rural roads, Labor steered to cities.

    The three High Court cases should consign the assumption, the compass and lack of proper Commonwealth direction to the deep. [2] (more…)

  • LYNDON MEGARRITY. Rex Patterson and the Whitlam Government

     

    Dr Rex Patterson entered politics in 1966 by winning a by-election for the seat of Dawson as an ALP candidate on the platform of Northern Development. During Whitlam’s time as Opposition leader (1967-72), Patterson and Whitlam worked closely together on Northern Australia policies; Patterson also developed a media and parliamentary profile as Labor’s spokesman for rural affairs and Northern Development. As a federal public servant in the 1950s and 1960s, Patterson had developed expertise in sugar, pastoralism and other primary industries and was therefore well qualified to be Labor’s spokesman for these issues. (more…)

  • JOHN CARMODY. More on Brexit

    Dr John Carmody reflects on the historical journey of the European Union.

    (more…)

  • JOHN AUSTEN. High speed rail – here we go again.

    Another proposal involving high speed rail Sydney-Melbourne recently surfaced; from CLARA (Consolidated Land and Rail Australia).

    Extensive media reports noted an advisory board including former Trade Minister the Hon. Andrew Robb, ex Premiers the Hon. Barry O’Farrell and the Hon. Steve Bracks , and former US Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood. A figure of $200billion was mentioned, with a claim it will not rely on government funding.

    So far the outline is sketchy.There are four website pages and a sub three minute video. The idea seems to be to create a series of new cities in inland NSW and Victoria linked to the state capitals by high speed rail. It is a decentralisation plan of which high speed rail is one aspect. Decades would pass before such a plan came to fruition, if ever. (more…)

  • JOHN AUSTEN. Road pricing rather than more road funding must be the priority.

     

    Road pricing is a hot topic for policy advisers although less popular with the public and elected representatives. This article attempts a (overly) simple explanation of what, why and whereto of road pricing. (more…)

  • TIM HARCOURT. Three reasons free trade has become a political football.

     

    Surveying democratic election results around the world, it’s clear the high water mark for globalisation has been met. Free trade, always questionable economics, is no longer good politics and in many ways has jumped the shark. (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE. Road funding – what is going on.

    Road funding is becoming a mess with quite serious misunderstandings of what is being spent and how much is being wasted. The benefits are of increasing doubt.

    In this blog I carried a post by John Austen ‘Road spending incurs billion dollar new debts annually‘. He pointed out that in 2013-14, we spent $5 billion more on roads than was raised in road revenue. He described how the Australian Automobile Association keeps adding into ‘road revenue’ other vehicle related taxation that is really general tax revenue – GST from motorists, fringe benefits tax, luxury car tax and passenger motor vehicle customs duty.

    Because road spending exceeds road revenue on a substantial scale, additional road spending is adding to debt. In this blog, Michael Keating and Luke Fraser ‘Infrastructure: improvement or impoverishment?‘ pointed out that:

    • Since 2007-08, revenue from motorists no longer covers road spending.
    • The accumulated stock of debt attributable to roads could be as high as $114 billion by financial year 2023-24.
    • Almost all the major multi billion dollar road projects have escaped serious srutiny.

    Wasteful roads expenditure is contributing substantially to our growing debt because road spending is exceeding road revenue.

    It is time to pause and examine the mess that road spending is creating. It is out of hand with doubtful benefits to road users and the community.

  • The election campaign’s other big lie: the Coalition hasn’t delivered ‘export agreements’.

     

    Pearls and Irritations has carried many articles about the exaggerated claims for free trade agreements.  That exaggeration continued during the election campaign. One of the five pillars of Malcolm Turnbull’s ‘plan for jobs and growth’ was the alleged benefits of recently negotiated FTAs.

    An increasing feature of the most recently negotiated FTAs is that Australia’s hard-won labour standards are being negotiated away through 457 visas in return for access to overseas markets and particularly China.

    Peter Martin in the SMH of July 7 highlights how little has been delivered through FTAs. See link below.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-election-campaigns-other-big-lie-the-coalition-hasnt-delivered-export-agreements-20160706-gpzcx3.html

  • MARK TRIFFITT & TRAVERS McCLEOD. Stability will only be found through ideas and democratic renewal

     

    On Saturday, Australia’s political system crossed a line. From the normal messiness of democracy into fragmented incoherence. From voter unrest to potential revolt.

    The implications are clear for anyone who wants to see. Instability is no longer a one-off in Australian politics but a pattern. Out-of-touch political leadership is no longer an individual failing but systemic.

    The enemies of the major parties may no longer be each other. Their principal enemy is fast becoming the ballot box. (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE. What the major parties ignored in the election?

     

    The election seemed more about avoiding some key issues than a contest of values and ideas.

    Because so many key issues such as refugees were avoided, it is not surprising that so many voters, about one third, turned their backs on the major parties. Some issues like the NBN were widely canvassed in social media but largely ignored in the public campaign. (more…)

  • JOHN MENADUE: ‘Plan for a strong new economy’

     

    As a voter in the prime minister’s electorate of Wentworth, I have received two letterbox drops from Malcolm Turnbull on a 5-point plan for economic growth and jobs.

    This 5 point plan is the centre piece of Malcolm Turnbull’s national campaign. It is a very flimsy plan which the media has not seriously examined. (more…)

  • IAN McAULEY. Brexit – retreat to isolationism and discontent of those left behind.

    The Brexit vote has given the media a cornucopia of stories – dissent in the British Conservative and Labour Parties, the possible breakup of the “United” Kingdom and turmoil on financial markets.

    These, however, are distractions from two serious issues that go beyond the events in one European country and in the rarefied world of financial markets. These are the retreat to economic isolationism and the discontent of those who have been left behind. Both are echoes of the developments in Europe between 1929 and 1933, which saw such terrible consequences. (more…)

  • GREG WOOD. FTA’s and Australian democracy and future governance.

    Andrew Robb’s response to concerns that Australia’s recent spate of free trade agreements were being negotiated in secret was to claim that trade negotiations have always been conducted that way. That comment contains a splinter of truth but a plank of misinformation.

    Once, not lately, trade ministers routinely informed Parliament on Australia’s aims, progress, and problems in important trade negotiations.

    More importantly, trade negotiations were much narrower in scope, solely concerned with the tariffs and quotas affecting trade in physical goods. The international trade agenda expanded in the WTO Uruguay Round. The ambit of Australia’s FTAs is wider still and commonly includes commitments on our foreign investment policy, investor state dispute resolution (ISDS), labour mobility and intellectual property law.   Their broad scope now goes to the heart of national policy, law, governance and culture, and carries far reaching legal and societal implications.

    FTAs also carry major foreign relations implications; the close economic intermeshing is only sustainable when the other party has a similar economic, foreign, and strategic policy mindset. In contrast the WTO is based, (was based?) around the most favoured nation concept, which goes a fair way to neutralising bilateral relations as a determinant of trade flows because business can readily shift between competitive national sources of supply.

    Contradicting Robb’s view on secrecy being normal, DFAT lists 710 “stakeholders” consulted while negotiating the China FTA. They include the Deer Industry Association and the Nursing and Midwifery Board of the Northern Territory. The Australian Parliament isn’t amongst them, hence nor is the Australian public more generally. That’s unacceptable: the ambit of these agreements is such that we are all stakeholders. Before any negotiations commence Parliament should be informed and debate Australia’s agreement objectives and the likely requests that will be made us by the other country.

    The opportunity to be more open with the Australian public is still there in the current negotiations with India and Europe and the imminent revisiting of the agreement with China. The FTA with China is a rubbery document, lacking true reciprocity. The meagre provisions on services trade are set for review in the next two years. Also scheduled for consideration is an “investment specific State to State dispute settlement” mechanism. What does that mean and when would it come into play? It would seem to give the Chinese government further additional leverage in any commercial disputes with Australia, something it has in spades by proxy, as most Chinese enterprises remain state owned or state controlled.

    Because FTAs are legally complex they are good at hiding their secrets. The ISDS provisions are inherently vexatious, those in the TPP getting most attention. Blandishments aside, ISDS will constrain parliament’s public policy latitude by imposing a potential compensation cost. Mr Robb argues that the FTA agreements include carve outs for health and environment and thereby protect Australia. Do they? TPP wording refers to “legitimate” public policy, opening a field day for lawyers.

    Australian Governments of late seem only to listen to the din of money as though that equates with national interest. Allowing a firm closely connected to the Chinese military to run Darwin, our northernmost port, beggars belief. On another tack Japan, Korea and China have all attached great importance to self-sufficiency in food production. For China overseas land investment is currently seen as a means to achieving it. The AFR recently noted that Chinese who buy land in Australia are feted for “a pioneering effort from national heroes” and gain “face”: the individual is delivering a national benefit. From our perspective it’s essential that Chinese rural investment be integrated with Australia’s rural industry and local community, not separate, apart, commercially excised. This implies the importance both of investment scrutiny and joint ventures.

    Australia’s past experience with Japan is cited as reason to be relaxed about current Chinese investment. Lost in history is that over decades successive Australian governments adopted policies to guide Japanese investment to suit Australia’s agenda: initially limiting Japan to minority holdings in iron ore and other mineral resources; later advocating joint ventures in thermal coal; actively encouraging investment in the automotive sector; and stipulating that only Australian residents could buy urban housing.

    Foreign relations with China will become ever more complex. A recent paid China Daily insert in the AFR included an article by one, Guo Yanjun. This described President Xi Jinping as “opening a new era for China’s ‘great power diplomacy’ and his diplomatic concepts, which are fundamentally beyond the constraints of the Western international relations theory, are based on China’s cultural tradition of pursuing peace and cooperation with neighbouring countries. To put these concepts into practice, Xi has proposed a kind, sincere, reciprocal and tolerant foreign policy towards neighbouring countries…” Effectively that’s an assertion of Chinese unilateralism, hence for us menace rather than reassurance. Where does China’s approach to the South China Sea fit with that?

    Contrary to Australians’ market oriented, Productivity Commission, economic rationalist, presumptions, the rest of the world doesn’t view trade and investment solely through this prism. Other countries weigh national interest broadly, judgements on foreign relations and security meshing with trade policy and economic development strategies. The Darwin decision shows we don’t. The inclusion of David Irvine on FIRB is a sensible step, but the process of meshing trade, foreign and security policy needs to be thorough. The incoming Australian government must improve the coordination of trade, foreign and security policies and ensure all perspectives are clearly articulated to cabinet and its advisory committees for consideration, not decided internally within one agency. That now mandates the separation of the trade and foreign affairs functions, currently within DFAT, back into separate portfolios. Trade should be represented on the Security Committee of Cabinet.

    Greg Wood was formerly Deputy Secretary in Prime Minister & Cabinet, and High Commissioner in Canada. He also headed the Americas and Europe Division in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He has had a long involvement in international trade policy and trade negotiations.