Category: Politics

  • John Menadue. Coal is good for humanity! The Tony Abbott story continues.

    The messenger may have changed, but apparently not the message. Only this week our new Prime Minister said ‘Can I simply say, the government’s policies are unchanged’

    An obvious example of this unchanged policy is that Malcolm Turnbull has agreed to the go-ahead of the $16 b. Carmichael Coal Project in central Queensland. This is despite the stand he used to make that burning fossil fuels was a major contributor to carbon pollution and climate change.

    To reinforce that ‘policies are unchanged’ and picking up where Tony Abbott left off Malcolm Turnbull’s new Energy Minister, Josh Frydenberg, tells us that the mine would ‘help lift millions of people out of energy poverty’. He pointed out that over a billion people around the world don’t have access to electricity. He is telling us in another way what Tony Abbott kept telling us that ‘coal is good for humanity’.

    Only three months ago Oxfam Australia reported that coal is ‘not good for humanity’. It said

    Four out of five people without electricity live in rural areas that are often not connected to a centralized energy grid so local, renewable energy solutions offer a much more affordable, practical and healthy solution than coal. The Australian coal industry faced with the rapid decline in the value of its assets and an accelerating global transition to renewable energy has been falsely promoting coal as the main solution for increasing energy access and reducing poverty around the world. But as well as failing to improve energy access for the world’s poorest people, burning coal contributes to hundreds of thousands of preventative deaths each year due to air pollution and is the single biggest contributor to climate change, pushing people around the world deeper into poverty. … the world’s poorest people are made even more vulnerable through the increasing risk of droughts, floods, hunger and disease due to climate change. Australia must rapidly phase out coal from its own energy supply and as a wealthy developed country, do far more to support developing countries with their own renewable energy plans. 

    Recently the Lancet, the UK medical journal, said

    ‘Climate change fuelled by the burning of coal as well as other fossil fuels, presents a potentially catastrophic risk to human health through heat stress, floods, droughts, extreme weather events, air pollution and the spread of disease.’ 

    In the face of an abundance of expert opinion, Malcolm Turnbull and Josh Frydenberg keep approving new coal mines. They accept the spin of the coal mining industry that ‘coal is good for humanity’.

    If they really want to help the poor and the planet, they would facilitate the wind-back of thermal coal production and re-double efforts to extend wind and solar power that doesn’t need a centralized distribution grid and can be deployed much more quickly and cheaply. Malcolm Turnbull talks about technology disruption. That would be a good way to help the planet through battery storage for solar power.

    Far from helping humanity to wind back the fossil fuel industry, the government is doing the reverse. A test of Malcolm Turnbull’s commitment to the environment is whether he will wind back the $6 b. annual subsidy that taxpayers pay to fossil fuel companies that have devastating environmental records and lobby incessantly and successfully to keep their hands in the taxpayers’ pocket.

    This $6 b. annual fossil fuel subsidy includes two really big hand-outs. The first is the fuel tax credit scheme costing about $2 b. which favours the big miners. Secondly, the oil and gas industry also get a massive tax break through accelerated depreciation that is approaching $2 b. p.a.

    The OECD only recently reported that ‘The time is right for countries to demonstrate that they are serious about combatting climate change and reforming harmful fossil fuel support is a good place to start.’ The OECD identified that its member countries had fossil fuel subsidies of $US 200 b. p.a.

    The Abbott government cut our foreign aid funding from $5.6 b. in 2012-13 to $4 b. in 2015-16. These are the largest ever multiple-year and single-year cuts in ODA in our history. Julie Bishop accepted these cuts. The wealthy miners with their lobbyists speak up all the time. But there are few to speak for the poor who need ODA.That is why foreign ministers have such an easy time. They have no domestic constituency. The don’t need to listen to the poor in Myanmar or Bangladesh.

    These cuts in ODA say a lot about the priorities of the Australian government. It cuts our aid to some of the poorest countries in the world but continues subsidies to those companies causing devastating climate change. By abolishing the carbon tax the polluters can continue to pollute without any penalty. It is time to reject the spin of the miners and stopped pretending that ‘coal is good for humanity’.

  • Luke Fraser. Rail and roads: a reform blueprint to match Turnbull’s boldness and innovation

    Australia’s new Prime Minister demands boldness and innovative action. Amen. To date road and rail reform has proven too dry and monolithic for most Prime Ministers. But failure to act is now accruing several billion dollars in road debt annually. Transport consumes over $30 billion of taxpayer treasure annually. Boldness and innovation here can bankroll many other solutions across Australia’s economy.

    Recently I juxtaposed the continued failure of Australian rail with the US experience, where Jimmy Carter’s bold market reforms have seen $AUD 800 billion of market money invested in rail since 1980. But what are the solutions for Australia?

    I propose five matters which promise to not only solve our core rail freight issues, but which will also bring responsible and productive reform – indeed, tax reform – to our road sector:

    1. Don’t look to government’s Inland Rail project for any answers

    Inland Rail is a $10 billion dollar project conceived by the transport bureaucracy to link Australia’s east coast freight task. Good in theory, but execution falls flat: several hundred pages of government business case fail to present a plausible commercial prospect to investors at even the thinnest rates of return. Even at a lower government investment rate, Inland Rail only shows an economic benefit cost ratio of 2.6:1 – and a great deal needs to go right to make even that ratio realistic[i]. Spending taxpayer treasure to build this would be lunacy. Inland Rail only works in the context of pricing reforms for east coast highway trucking.

    1. Address the lack of direct pricing arrangements for inter-capital road freight

    Is our economy big enough for a fully commercial east-coast freight railway? Probably. But for now over 85 per cent of Australia’s east coast interstate freight runs on trucks[ii], because they offer a more efficient service than rail can provide. This is primarily due to the antiquated way trucks are charged and the overwhelming historical expenditure bias towards highways. No other modern large economy is so truck-dependent for long haul.

    While highway trucks pay steep fuel tax and registration charges for their contribution to road damage, the devil lurks in the detail of this charging system: it is an entirely averaged charge across all trucks and roads nationwide. In other words, charges don’t reflect the true costs of maintaining the major east coast highways which out-compete rail: a semi-trailer pays the same taxes and charges, whether it is hauling interstate freight on the Pacific Highway or delivering to a farm on a dirt road in the outback. Not all roads need to attract a direct charge, but the major highways which compete directly with railways should be so charged (initially the charge might not even need to be actually levied, but rail investors at least need to see what it might look like).

    To put this in context, average road charging of trucks on the major rail-competitive highways would be like our electricity providers charging a flat connection fee for suburban homes and large factories alike: the quantum of fees raised might be right, but home-owners rightly would be furious at having to cross-subsidise the business sector.

    In some cases, developing direct prices on the intercapitals might make some road freight routes even cheaper. So be it: rail and road investors and their financiers simply need certainty and transparency around pricing before anyone will open their chequebook on any projects. This step would bring competition reform to roads in a controlled and useful way, one designed explicitly to minimise unintended consequences.

    1. Market-test the government’s national railway – but be careful about it

    The government signalled the sale of Australia’s national railway (the Australian Rail Track Corporation – ARTC) in its 2015 budget. This is the right outcome: Experienced market proponents are the only people to run commercial rail. As in the United States, the new owners should be relieved of all commercially-crippling passenger train responsibilities.

    But if a ‘quick and dirty’ asset recycling of ARTC occurs without first establishing the fair direct price trucking should be paying for use of competitor highways to the railway, the new owner of Australia’s railways will be buying a pig in a poke.

    Tasmania and Victoria allowed this to happen to their grain branch lines around 15 years ago – railways were sold, the new commercial owner found them mostly non-commercial against trucking and promptly began ‘asset stripping’ to make what was left viable. this resulted in the Crown buying back railways at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars and great embarrassment. Western Australia and its grain growers are living through precisely the same stuff-up today. To allow this to happen to Australia’s national mainline network would be not far short of economic vandalism. An ARTC sale could consider appropriate enforceable obligations, such as allowing connected rural branch railways to be run profitably by farmer cooperatives to the mainline, as often occurs successfully across North America. But the vendor should not be too prescriptive about what stays, what goes and what new railways get built.

    Inter-capital highways are the only parts of the road network competing directly with national rail for freight custom. Highways are also one of the biggest spending pressures on our spiralling, debt-laden roads budget. They should be the first subject for innovative and responsible road reform.

    1. Align funding control with accountability: hand national highways over to the Commonwealth

    Since Whitlam, most ‘national’ highways have been the sole funding responsibility of the Commonwealth, yet for over 40 years Canberra has taken no responsibility whatsoever for their delivery. This disconnect encourages Federal transport ministers to throw vast taxpayer dollars at highway ribbon-cutting and then blame the states for failure to deliver when anybody criticises highways. The States should stop being made the whipping boy here and call Canberra’s bluff in an important reform to Federation: hand full responsibility for all national highways to the Commonwealth – make Canberra directly responsible to the voter for the outcomes of profligate, politicised and erratic highway spending patterns.

    1. Examine market models for national highways

    It would be logical for Canberra as sole owner and financier of a national highways network to examine more productive commercial operation of these highways, with trucks paying a fair and transparent direct charge in return for pro rata fuel tax and registration rebates: in short, productive fuel tax reform.

    Throughout Europe, professional road services companies have managed highways very effectively for decades, providing good service levels far more efficiently than bureaucracies with their large fuel taxes and inflationary construction costs. Bringing pricing and spending disciplines to the expensive highways might even reduce the cost of truck charges overall because the quantum of non-commercial road spending would be reduced significantly.

    The alternative to bold and innovative future with a competition reform pedigree is more mindless, politicised highway spending, more State and Commonwealth transport blame games, billions in new government debt accrued each year, no national rail sector of any substance and little if any productive market investment in either rail or highways.

    That is not a future that squares with our new Prime Minister’s narrative.

     

     

    Luke Fraser is founder and principal of Juturna, a public policy consultancy specialised in road and rail freight and market investment reforms. He is a former national trucking industry CEO and has authored several reform studies for Infrastructure Australia. In 2012 he was appointed to the COAG Road Reform Board. He was for a time a chief of staff in the Howard government.

    [i] Remarkably, the Inland Rail business case appears to overlook specific new motorway infrastructure in northern Sydney – Northconnex – which is likely to reduce interstate road freight travel times significantly on the run through Sydney. This might render Inland Rail’s stated improved delivery times thoroughly uncompetitive.

    [ii] Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics Interstate Freight in Australia Research Report 120 (2010)

     

     

  • Dean Ashenden. What is to be done about Australian schooling?

    Dealing with high and rising social and cultural segregation is the real challenge of school reform.

    Over the past two or three months alone, no fewer than five prominent individuals and organisations have tried to answer an increasingly vexing question: what is to be done about Australian schooling?

    Australia, these various commentators agree, is among the school reform dunces of the Western world. While other countries forge ahead (the argument goes) we are stuck. Some schools and school systems – government, independent or Catholic ­– and some curriculum areas have done better than others, but since around the turn of the century none has done much more than flatline, despite strenuous reform efforts by state and federal governments.

    It is on this stubborn ground that the battle of the reform agendas is being fought. Some of the reformers want to press on in the current direction. Some want a quite different agenda. And some want a different system.

    To press on is to persist in the view that if schools are exposed to the right combination of pressures and given the right capacity to respond, they will lift their “performance,” and this will be reflected in better student results in standardised tests. Since Julia Gillard become federal minister for education in 2007, this has been the dominant Australian reform agenda, prosecuted through NAPLAN, the MySchool website, and a flurry of other measures aimed at encouraging parental choice, making schools more accountable for student attainment, and taking us to “top five by ’25.” Gillard’s Coalition successor in the education portfolio, Christopher Pyne, bought the line and packaged it up as the “four pillars” of reform.

    Two of the five recent reports ­– one by prominent academic and consultant Brian Caldwell, the other by the Centre for Independent Studies, or CIS – belong to this agenda. Their concern is not with the “pressure” side of the equation, but with the amount and kind of elbow room schools need if pressure is to turn into “performance.”

    Caldwell has been the leading Australian proponent of school autonomy since the publication of his seminal The Self-Managing School (written with Tasmanian principal Jim Spinks) in 1988. He was among the first to argue that autonomy should serve educational as well as professional and organisational ends, and was therefore among the first to realise that a causal chain with ill-defined “autonomy” at one end and closely specified “outcomes” at the other end is a long and tangled one.

    The most recent of Caldwell’s many investigations of the connection, based on the experience of four government schools in Victoria, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory, finds that, yes, “autonomy” does improve “performance,” or it can anyway, sort of. The analysis “tends to confirm,” Caldwell concludes, “that higher levels of school autonomy are associated with higher levels of student achievement providing there is a balance of autonomy and accountability” (emphases added). In other words: in the universe of schooling, where everything is related to everything else, it all depends.

    Such inconvenient caveats, qualifications and distinctions eluded the sponsor of Professor Caldwell’s study, then education minister Pyne. “Great schools have leaders and teachers who have the independence to make decisions and deliver the education that best suits the needs of their students,” he enthused in launching the report. “And the research, including the findings by Professor Caldwell, tells us this is the right approach.”

    It doesn’t, and it didn’t, of course. The concept of “autonomy,” along with the Commonwealth’s $70 million Independent Public Schools Initiative and Caldwell himself, has been roped into a highly politicised and dubious campaign that is not interested in whether, how and to what end relationships between schools and systems need reform. It is interested, instead, in making public schools more like private ones.

    The CIS is also a supporter of autonomy and of independent public schools, but wants to go several steps further. It wants Australia to follow the example of the United States, Britain, Sweden, Chile and, most recently, New Zealand in introducing “charter” schools. Models vary, but the general idea is that charters are public schools privately operated (by for-profits as well as not-for-profits) within the terms of a contract or “charter.”

    In the CIS proposal, charters could set or choose their own curriculum and make their own industrial arrangements. They could be either “conversions,” which take over failing public schools, or “startups” going into competition with existing schools. One objective is, of course, to lift “performance,” but the CIS also argues that charters could encourage innovation and bring choice to families currently deprived of it for reasons of income and/or a preference for non-religion-based schooling.

    Considered in its own terms the case is plausible, attractive even. The charter mechanism (unlike the “autonomy” approach) recognises that the whole web of relationships of which “the school” is part needs to be rejigged. Schools working with “the disadvantaged” – the clientele the CIS has in mind – do need better ways of organising teaching and learning, hence different staffing profiles and deployment, and hence different industrial arrangements. They certainly need school-based or school-shaped curriculum. And even if the evidence about the “performance” of charters is mixed, as the CIS concedes, well, there’s still the claimed benefit of extending “choice” to those who don’t already have it.

    It is not until we step outside this advocacy that the real problems appear. Wanting to introduce charters into the US system in 1991 (when the first charters were established) is a very different thing from wanting to introduce them into Australia in 2015. In the United States the charters were designed to tackle the public school monopoly in the interests of variety, choice and innovation. Australia already has plenty of all of these features, and they have not served us well, not least because the ground rules are so different.

    In the United States, neither mainstream public schools nor charters are permitted to charge fees or to select on academic, racial, income or other grounds. Without seeming to notice the implications, the CIS suggests a level playing field for Australian charters and mainstream public schools: they should be funded to the same level, should not be permitted to charge fees, and should be non-selective.

    This raises an obvious question. If a level playing field is a good way to run the public system, why not the system as a whole? It might be assumed that a think tank committed to free and open competition, and to its educational correlative, equal opportunity, would be the first to ask the question, and to pursue the questions that then arise. It could ask, for instance, whether the lack of levelness in the playing field contributes to “educational disadvantage” and whether more levelness might reduce it. But the question is not posed.

    How is it that the CIS wants to import the charter idea, but not its regulatory framework, from the United States? How come the CIS has public schools for the “disadvantaged” in its sights but does not even mention arrangements for the “advantaged” or what has produced such a yawning chasm between the two? Why doesn’t it mention the possibility that a “failing” Catholic school might become a “conversion” charter? Why no consideration of the pros and cons of converting at least some independent schools to charters? Or of the pros and cons of more cooperation between schools in disadvantaged areas as against more competition between them?

    My purpose is not to question the sincerity of the CIS and its authors in wanting to do something about a serious educational and social problem. It is to point to a downward gaze that has trumped the CIS’s own first principles. Disadvantage is being addressed on the strict proviso that certain interests and arrangements remain not just untouched, but unmentioned. It is a question to which we will return.

    Geoff Masters is the long-time CEO of Australia’s preeminent education research organisation, an international authority on the complex interactions of assessment, teaching and learning, and a prominent critic of the all-too-familiar lockstep curriculum. To these research and educational credentials Masters has added a concern with how reform should proceed. In this he draws on arguments advanced by Canadian guru Michael Fullan and others, and particularly on Fullan’s critique of the Gillard agenda (title:Choosing the Wrong Drivers for Whole System Reform).

    Masters argues that, contra Caldwell and the CIS, choice, competition and school autonomy are best understood as elements of an agenda that doesn’t work. That agenda (Masters says) is based on the mistaken belief that “improvement will occur if schools are given incentives to improve,” including rewards, sanctions and the need to compete for students.

    Countries pursuing these strategies, Masters says – referring to but not naming Britain and the United States – “tend to be the countries that have experienced the worst declines in student performance.” Research is now casting doubt both on the “theoretical underpinnings” of the incentives agenda and on associated assumptions about what motivates people to give of their best. Rather than persist with an agenda based on rewards, sanctions and competition, Masters wants Australia to build the “capacity” of teachers and school leaders, and to ensure “high quality practice across the system.”

    Masters offers an outline of just such an agenda: a higher-status and more academically capable teaching profession; a “twenty-first-century curriculum”; more “flexible learning arrangements focused on growth”; early and extra attention for children “at risk of being locked into trajectories of low achievement”; and a narrower gap between the best- and worst-performing schools.

    Another to depart from the dominant agenda is the most recent in the Grattan Institute’s impressive series of reports on schooling. Like Masters, Grattan urges “more flexible learning arrangements focused on growth.” Where Masters points the general direction, Grattan gets down and dirty, reporting in detail on the work of schools that are putting the learning-based-on-growth approach into daily practice by collecting detailed information about each student’s progress and using it to inform curriculum choices and teaching strategies.

    It is at least possible that Masters and Grattan share something else: a loss of faith in or hope of large-scale reform. Until recently Grattan was a leading importer of ideas about how systems could and should be reorganised, but it has moved steadily from telescope to microscope, from reform of the system to reform of practice and to the school as “the unit of reform.” Masters, meanwhile, is straight-out despondent.

    There is (he says) “little evidence” that the status and academic capability of teachers is about to change, while “many features of the school curriculum have been unchanged for decades.” It is not obvious that “we have policies in place to reform mathematics and science curriculum in ways that might reverse the trend in subject enrolments and performance.” The counterproductive age-based organisation of teaching and learning “is deeply entrenched and reinforced by legislation” and “there is little evidence that… we are doing a better job of reducing the number of students on long-term trajectories of low achievement.”

    Masters doesn’t investigate why all this is so, why the “wrong drivers” have been chosen, or why his preferred agenda has not been pursued. Lyndsay Connors and Jim McMorrow do, and what they find justifies both a gloomy prognosis and a different approach to reform.

    Lyndsay Connors is, among other things, former chair of the Schools Commission, while Jim McMorrow was the Commission’s money man and remains the authority on where “resources” come from, where they go, and what they do. As might be expected of an experienced journalist and a de facto forensic accountant, Connors and McMorrow come at the problem in a quite different way from Caldwell and the CIS, and from Masters and Grattan. They look at the workings of the system as a whole rather than those of individual schools. They start not with an agenda but an analysis of the problem, and look at the specifics of the Australian system rather than at reform efforts elsewhere. And, unsurprisingly, they reach different conclusions about what is to be done. In this they are in debt to a reportprepared for the Gonski review by a Nous consortium and that, in turn, was informed by the work of a handful of mostly Melbourne-based researchers. What follows is a free translation of this substantial body of work.

    Any school in any school system anywhere (the argument goes) will reflect the demographics of its location, but Australia’s set-up compounds unavoidable differences in the social composition of schools. Its most distinctive feature is the sector system: three types of school, all receiving funding from two levels of government but in three different mixes and in three different ways. Two of the three, the non-government sectors, charge fees and are mostly religion-based. The third is nominally free, and secular.

    It is often thought that these arrangements permit non-government schools to select on financial and/or religious and/or academic grounds while the government schools do not. In fact, some non-government schools behave for most practical purposes as mainstream public schools and, more to the point, some government schools select all of their students on academic and therefore social grounds, and many select some of their students, both overtly and covertly.

    These structural arrangements mean that an unusually high proportion of Australian parents have an unusually great capacity to choose from an unusually wide range of schools. They typically choose schools where their children will find others just like themselves. And the more parents who do that, the more other parents will conclude that they’d better do likewise. In the doing, they make a choice for those who can’t choose, for reasons of income and/or location, or because their child doesn’t have what the choosy schools are looking for. Thus the non-choosers, like the choosers, find themselves increasingly among their own kind.

    To point this out is not to blame parents who can and do choose, either for choosing or for the choices they make. It is to criticise a system of pressures and opportunities to which parents respond as best they can and which, in the upshot, gives Australia an exceptionally high and rising “stratification” of schooling by class and culture, now approaching the stage at which it should probably be called “segregation,” or segmentation at the very least.

    More than a third of government school students are from the lowest quarter of students according to socioeconomic status, or SES, almost three times the proportion in the independent sector, and these ratios are more or less reversed for the top quartile. There are much higher concentrations in particular schools at either end of the spectrum. The concentration of disadvantaged students in disadvantaged schools is, Nous reports, “substantially higher than for any comparable OECD country,” while the proportion of all students in mixed or average SES schools is well below the OECD average. Research conducted since Nous and Gonski reported suggeststhat the concentration of low SES students in government schools continues.

    Cultural divisions are, in at least some parts of the country, even more pronounced. Taking the cases of Sydney and New South Wales, researcher Christina Ho found sectoral differences in LBOTE (language background other than English) and non-LBOTE enrolments similar to SES differences, but with staggering concentrations in top-end schools. There, LBOTE families have opted for the government schools that select and exclude on academic grounds, while non-LBOTEs have headed for the independents that select and exclude mainly on financial grounds. Thus only one of the top ten NSW government selective schools (by HSC rank) has less than 80 per cent LBOTE enrolments, but Ho can list sixteen high-fee schools with less than 20 per cent LBOTE. In between these extremes Ho finds a less dramatic but still pronounced segmentation going on.

    The sifting and sorting of students and families into particular schools feeds a sifting and sorting of the schools themselves, a process often referred to as “residualisation.” The term was popularised by public school advocates to describe a vicious circle. Schools with high proportions of kids from poor families find it increasingly difficult to attract and keep experienced and capable teachers, principals and other key educational resources, which makes them less attractive to those who can choose to go elsewhere, which increases the proportion of “disadvantaged” students, which makes the school less attractive, and so on, and on, around and around the circle.

    There is also a flip side, not so often noted, a process of aggrandisement that produces schools of almost preposterous grandeur, with five-star resort buildings and grounds, parents paying in fees twice what is spent on the common ruck of students (and that’s before various endowments, public subsidies, accounting lurks and tax breaks), and executive salary packages three times those offered elsewhere. In the course of his review, David Gonski, who came from the world of Sydney Grammar, visited some of the schools at the other end of the spectrum, and was shocked. Australia has constructed a system not just of sectors but of gated communities and educational slums.

    This process is often seen – and objected to – as the product of “marketisation.” It is true that schools parade their wares, and parents shop around. Indeed, more of both sides do the market-like thing in Australia than in any comparable country. But to think that Australian schooling is a marketplace and to argue that the problem lies therein is to make a fundamental mistake. The problem is in the way the market interacts with the funding and regulatory regime to produce massive distortions in what is offered and to whom it is available.

    Thus we have both free and publicly subsidised fee-charging schools; religious and secular schools; schools lavishly funded and schools relatively impoverished; schools permitted to select on grounds of capacity to pay and/or religious affiliation and/or academic performance and schools prohibited from doing any of those things; parents who are required to pay when often they can’t afford it and parents who aren’t and can; and parents who are offered the full menu and others who must take whatever is put on their plate.

    The most obvious educational consequence of all this, or obvious in the psychometrics relied on by all of the authors discussed here anyway, is “inequality” of “outcomes.”

    The argument is that a student’s attainment is determined less by his or her school’s educational program than by the school’s student body. Thus a low SES student going to a high SES school, for example, will do better than his or her peers because of the company he or she keeps. The complex redistribution of students across schools, Connors and McMorrow argue, has therefore also been a redistribution of educational achievement. It has led to a gap between Australia’s highest and lowest performing students (as Gonski observed) “far greater” than in many other OECD countries. And it means that Australia was the only OECD country to see an increase in the performance gap between high and low SES schools between 2000 and 2009.

    Most striking is an increase in “between-school variance,” a measure of the extent to which schools differ from each other. An Australian Council for Educational Research study of results from the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment found an increase in variance from 18 to 24 per cent between 2000 and 2009. Over the same period variance in Finland’s schools rose from 8 to 9 per cent. As noted above, recent research suggests that the overall trend in both social redistribution and the redistribution of attainment rolls on.

    But do standardised tests, which these various comparisons rely on, focus on too narrow a subset of the learning that goes on in three areas of the formal curriculum (literacy, science, maths)? This is an important objection, but there is another, at least as important. Standardised tests say nothing at all about what is learned in school via the so-called “informal” curriculum.

    Christina Ho points to the moral as it applies to “multicultural” learning. “Scholars of ‘everyday multiculturalism’ argue that the success of Australian multiculturalism has much to do with ordinary encounters between people of different cultural background that happen every day, in neighbourhoods, workplaces, parks – and schools,” she says. “Monocultural schools, regardless of the brilliance of their teaching programs, cannot socialise students for the realities of a cosmopolitan Australian society and a globalised world.” The same can be said of learning about social difference. The general point is that students who do not learn about others do not learn about themselves either. They are being miseducated.

    Then there are the social consequences. Australian schools are increasingly active in constituting an elite that knows only itself, and an underclass that is being dudded and knows it. More diffuse but no less material is the erosion of “equal opportunity” through schooling as both a fact and as an important source of legitimation for the social order as a whole.

    A first conclusion: to say that we’re not getting anywhere is not quite right. Nor is it quite right to say that the problem with schooling is a problem of agendas. A big part of the problem is that we have the wrong system, and that most agenda-setters are looking elsewhere. We could go further and surmise that all that effort in reforming practice and schools isworking, not particularly well or widely, but well enough to stop us going backwards as a result of the workings of the system. The schools, in this perspective, are galley slaves, badly trained and fed, not very well coordinated, but stuck with rowing against a systemic tide.

    A second conclusion: are “outcomes” the thing to focus on, or the only one? All sides of the battle accept that lifting outcomes is the main game. But shouldn’t segregation itself be front and centre, by reason of its role in generating unequal attainments as well as other educational and social consequences? Why shouldn’t any school or school system that wants to select some or all of its students be held just as responsible for the resulting social mix as it is for “outcomes”? Segregation should be seen not just as an explanation of the problem, but also as a big, direct, closely reported and well-documented target of policy.

    A third conclusion: the tools of thinking about reform are not fit for purpose.

    The reform debate is dominated by the “effectiveness” paradigm, and that is a very mixed blessing. Thanks to its origins in psychology and psychometrics it is much better at understanding teaching and learning and, at a stretch, how a school works, than at understanding how school systems work. It is much more interested in what makes an effective teacher or school than in what makes an effective system. It has encouraged the assumption that “reform” consists of the viral spread of “good practice” and the accumulation of micro-gains.

    It has another problem, noted a moment ago. The effectiveness paradigm can see only the learning that goes on in the formal curriculum. It has blurred the vision of those who do see a segmentation problem, including Masters, Connors and McMorrow (and Nous and Gonski), but then relegate it to the status of an explanatory variable. The effectiveness approach makes them less than alert to learning in the so-called “informal curriculum,” the learning that comes from spending five or six hours, day after day, in a segregated school. They pass too quickly over the fact that high and rising segregation in schools is incompatible with a multicultural society, and with a democratic one.

    The language and interests of “effectiveness” have pushed out of view the system itself, and much of what goes on in schools. And it has pushed history, politics, sociology, philosophy and economics to the margins of thinking about reform. The exception, as employed and elaborated by Connors and McMorrow, illustrates the rule.

    A final thought: what is it about the system that does the damage? To one way of thinking, the problem is in regulation, and the solution is “deregulation.” In other minds, including those of the Nous researchers, the problem stems from (as Nous puts it) a “robust” and “highly competitive” market. In fact, this is less a problem of too much regulation than a matter of bad regulation. The market is not robust, but wildly distorted. Maldistributed liberty has eroded equality and discounted fraternity. The problem is not the market or regulation but their currently dysfunctional combination.

    And so, inevitably, to Gonski, the proposal for systemic reform, the great offset on the Gillard balance sheet, and the hope of the side. If Gonski is lost then so is any chance of arresting and reversing the segregationist logic of the system. If Gonski survives, then it must be remembered that he was sent into the fight with one arm tied behind his back. He was permitted to examine only one aspect of funding (the fee/free distinction, for example, was off limits), and the regulatory regime, including selection and exclusion, not at all.

    Connors and McMorrow argue that Gonski plus some regulatory tightening in a “hybrid” system is the best that can be hoped for. That is certainly the outer limit of what government can achieve at the moment. But is it the limit of thought, argument, proposal?

    My own view is that if Gonski does survive then it should be regarded not as the systemic reform job done, but as a crucial step on a long road. At the end of that road, as the CIS inadvertently suggests, is a level playing field. Between here and there is a lot of hard thinking about policy and politics, compromise and principle, which could be approached in good faith from left, right or centre. The objective is not to restore the status quo of 1960, or to defend this sector against that, or to keep adding more choice to a hopelessly rigged market, but to combine funding and regulation so that no school gets too far behind or too far ahead in the conditions needed to attract a diverse clientele and to offer an educationally engaging program. Schools are, after all, for kids. They are meant to be a bridge to the wider world, not a mere reflection of the circumstances into which a child happens to have been born.

  • Peter Gibilisco and assisted by Bruce Wearne. A Special Minister for Disability.

    Disability support and policy is currently undergoing much needed reform. Such reforms highlight the attenuated life chances of people with disabilities and how these can be mitigated by policies that emphasize the inclusion of people with disabilities into the social life of us all. There is much public money being spent on getting things right, and indeed many lives are at stake.

    The National Disability Insurance Scheme is a wide sweeping reform that seems to be trying its utmost to significantly improve the lives of all people with disabilities however severe or profound these may be. There is a constant need for significant government financial support for people with disabilities to promote their health and wellbeing.

    All this has led me in times past to ask: should there be a specific Government ministry for people with disabilities?

    But now I am wondering: how does this proposal relate to the recent change in Prime Minister and the Ministerial reshuffle? Should I be pleased?

    An article in the Sydney Morning Herald (21 September) discusses the new arrangement of Ministers with special attention to disability. The article’s headline suggests that the Turnbull Government’s reshuffle of portfolios amounts to a loss for disability. But it concludes with the statement of the new minister, Christian Porter (who has replaced Mitch Fifield), that “people can be absolutely assured that disabilities is going to have front and centre care inside portfolios.”

    The word “care” is interesting; it refers here to policies. In his portfolio statement it refers to people. This is a subtle reminder that policies need to be framed with care in order to care for people. But the statement on its own is ambiguous. My question is this: How can any one issue coming under Porter’s many-sided portfolio be “front and centre” when all the other issues to be dealt with under this “Social Welfare” portfolio also need to be addressed? I am not wanting to debate here. This is no quibble. The ambiguity confirms the suspicion that disability as a “front and centre” political issue may have lost ground in the ministerial reshuffle.

    And so to my point. I suggest that disability should be covered by one federal ministerial portfolio with one minister just as there is one Ministry for Indigenous Affairs.

    Of course the new Minister’s sincerity is not in doubt. I realise such an innovation would be difficult to implement. I also welcome his emphasis upon putting disability “front and centre”. That indeed affirms a principle of good ministerial oversight and what he has said should encourage people with disability to fight on for better outcomes. But as “disability minister” he is not simply the Minister for Disability Affairs; he is Minister for Social Services overseeing “Australian government social services, including Mental health, families and children’s policy, and support for carers and people with disabilities, and seniors.” (From the Minister’s web-site). And so the situation that confronts this minister is indeed complex with many issues “front and centre”.

    My point is that the social structural complexity confronting those with disability has to be the “front and centre” focus of a specially designated minister (and department). How else can he, or she, deal with all the other issues that have to be “front and centre” to other ministers and other departments?

    The people we are talking about are our fellow citizens who suffer from an infinite number of complex disabilities. It would make sense to have a Government minister who can articulate and define disability in human and medical discourse. It makes sense for a Government minister to be a political figurehead in overseeing impacts from legislation from other portfolios and ensuring appropriate adjustments. Such a ministry would be innovative with a massive work load. There are innumerable social issues to be addressed; the demographic features of disability across the country have to be regularly monitored.

    Australia has a diverse population, with approximately 20 per cent living with disability.

    There is also the shocking statistic that identifies that at least 45 per cent of these welfare recipients are living in poverty. This is  further suggesting that there is an appalling ignorance toward people with disabilities. Christian Porter has much work to do on this front. Australia, along with other OECD countries, should be developing a perspective on economic and social development that puts this fact “front and centre”.

    A Government ministerial innovation that I propose here will help to upgrade the professional and analytical skills of our public service to find a new path to reach out and include all of our society. This is something that a disability minister would seek to implement.

    Further: does the absence of such a specifically designated ministry already create an unfortunate stigma when it comes to the funding of disability services? Of course, this is a cultural problem even if many voices say there is a community-wide failure to acknowledge the problems confronting services to those with disabilities. How is this ignorance to be addressed without a Federal minister to give political clout to such a change in the general attitude?

    We note that many voices are suggesting that proposed funding for the National Disability Insurance Scheme will be inadequate. And indeed the appointment of a Minister for Disability Affairs, as I am proposing, would require wise guidance from those in public life (as well as parliamentarians) who are well versed about life and its struggles. This is but one step to support a move beyond mere coping with life’s struggles to embrace a national generosity that reckons with the pleasures of freedom for all.

    Peter Gibilisco was diagnosed with the progressive neurological condition called Friedreich’s Ataxia, at age 14. The disability has made his life painful and challenging. He rocks the boat substantially in the formation of needed attributes to succeed in life. For example, he successfully completed a PhD at the University of Melbourne, this was achieved late into the disability’s progression. However, he still performs research with the university, as an honorary fellow. Please read about his new book The Politics of Disability.

    Bruce Wearne was awarded a Ph.D. from LaTrobe University in Melbourne, Australia, in 1987, for a thesis examining the 20th–century history of American sociology. Having left university employment, he serves on the Editorial Board of The American Sociologist. He develops a perspective on South West Pacific politics at his blog: https://nurturingjustice.wordpress.com

     

     

  • John Menadue. Is Malcolm Turnbull sacrificing his principles?

    The polls show most Australian voters have welcomed Malcolm Turnbull’s election as Prime Minister. I did.

    It is very early days, but I am concerned by signs that he is bowing very much to the right wing of his own party and former Abbott supporters rather than spelling out clearly his own policies that we heard about for years. He told the Parliament today ‘Can I simply say the government’s policies are unchanged’

    A strong leader imposes his views on the organization he leads and not the other way around. In the longer term, Malcolm Turnbull can’t please those who welcomed his election as a sign of change and improvement, and those who stuck stoically to Tony Abbott.

    For years in opposition and then in government Malcolm Turnbull gave us a contemporary, appealing and relevant outline about what we should be doing in our national interest. Is it still there?

    Despite early signs of a more humane approach to asylum seekers and refugees, he has re-appointed the hardline ex-policeman, Peter Dutton, as his Minister for Immigration and Border Protection. It was a ‘captain’s pick’ that he didn’t need to make. I was looking for signs of change in this area, or at least a signal that change was in prospect. It did not happen. Only last week, Peter Dutton told us that he would not be blackmailed by pregnant asylum seekers on Nauru. What courage! I don’t think that is what many in the Australian public, or even Malcolm Turnbull himself, hoped for in his Minister for Immigration and Border Protection.

    Adam Bandt asked Malcolm Turnbull in the parliament about releasing children in detention. What we got was a justification from Malcolm Turnbull on Coalition refugee policies that were ‘tough’ and even ‘harsh’.

    Climate policy has been the defining issue of Malcolm Turnbull’s political career. He lost the leadership of the Liberal Party on just this issue. He once described the Coalition’s policy of Direct Action to reduce carbon emissions as ‘fiscal recklessness on a grand scale’. He also described Direct Action as a ‘fig leaf’ when you haven’t got a policy. Now Malcolm Turnbull describes Direct Action as a ‘resounding success’.

    In 2010, Malcolm Turnbull told us that ‘to effectively combat climate change’, the nation ‘must move … to a situation where almost all or most of our energy needs to come from zero or near zero emissions sources’. Now he tells the parliament that ‘[Opposition leader, Bill Shorten] is highlighting one of the most reckless proposals the Labor Party has made. Fancy proposing without any idea of the cost of abatement, the cost of proposing that 50% of energy had to come from renewables! What if that reduction in emissions you needed could come more cost-effectively from carbon storage, by planting trees, by soil carbon, by using gas, by using clean coal, by energy efficiency.’ That is dramatic turn-round in policy by Malcolm Turnbull. Was it just political rhetoric or has he changed his mind on renewable energy?

    Barnaby Joyce maintains that in the deal with the National Party, Malcolm Turnbull agreed that water policy would be transferred to his agricultural portfolio. That suggests that the interests of farmers will be placed ahead of the ecological health of the Murray-Darling Basin. That again raises serious doubts about Malcolm Turnbull’s environmental credentials. Even that resolute climate sceptic, Tony Abbott, never put Barnaby Joyce in charge of water in the Murray Darling Basin.

    The Turnbull government has now approved the $16 b. Adani Carmichael Coal Project in Queensland. In doing this, Malcolm Turnbull told the parliament that ‘clean coal’ and ‘carbon capture’ were viable responses to fossil fuel pollution. But he told us in 2010 that ‘despite all the money put into carbon capture and storage there is still, as of today, no industrial scale coal fired power station using carbon capture and storage ‘. As far as I can understand carbon capture and storage is still a pipe dream, as it has been for decades.

    The tide of informed opinion is turning very strongly against new investments in thermal coal projects like Carmichael. The governor of the Bank of England only recently warned about the risks of investing in fossil fuel and that such investments would likely become ‘stranded assets’. In 2010 Malcolm Turnbull told us that building a future that is not reliant on fossil fuels for energy is ‘absolutely essential if we are to leave a safe planet to our children and the generations that come after them.’ Yet he has now approved the Carmichael coal mine that will be one of the largest in the world and the largest in Australia. It will increase carbon pollution dramatically and put at risk the Great Barrier Reef. We are paying a heavy price for another Malcolm Turnbull somersault.

    In his own electorate of Wentworth, Malcolm Turnbull had a strong reputation and record in support of marriage equality. But that is also changing. He has now endorsed the position held by Tony Abbott. As prime minister, he has told the parliament ‘the Coalition, our government, has decided that the resolution of this matter [marriage equality] will be determined by a vote of the people by a plebiscite to be held after the next election’. Tony Abbott must be pleased. No wonder Tony Abbott said, perhaps a little mischievously that the Turnbull Government had not changed any policies of his own government.

    In Opposition, Malcolm Turnbull described data retention laws as ‘expensive, invasive and useless’. He is now over-seeing a huge expansion in the amount of information the government can access from the public. There is no sign yet that he is likely to rescue us from the ‘digital dungeon’ he warned us about.

    Tony Abbott was determined to destroy the National Broadband Network. Malcolm Turnbull, it could be argued, helped to rescue it. But the political compromise between Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull has given us a much inferior NBN. Almost all informed advice tells us that we are spending massive sums on a project which will result in this country having inadequate internet speeds. This will stifle the sort of innovative businesses which Malcolm Turnbull says the country needs. Yet he has shown no signs of building an NBN which, instead of relying upon slow and antiquated Telstra copper, connects most Australian premises to fibre. All we have had is waffle from the new minister about the government being technologically “agnostic”, whatever that means.

    It is early days yet for the Turnbull government, but the events of the last month are cause for concern. Tony Abbott and the old guard are winning consistently on policies.

    Gough Whitlam indelibly stamped his policies on the ALP long before he became Prime Minister. The reverse now looks to be in play with the Coalition stamping its policies and prejudices on Malcolm Turnbull after he became Prime Minister.

    In the end we didn’t expect much from Tony Abbott, but with Malcolm Turnbull we have much higher expectations. He has set the bar much higher for himself and our country. We were encouraged by this. But he is showing a tendency to keep running under the bar he set.

    He has given the Liberal party a lift in its political capital of about 3/4%. But has the Liberal party learned a lesson about the need for genuine change along the lines formerly advocated by Malcolm Turnbull or will the Liberal party head back to its old agenda?

    Will Malcolm Turnbull be there when we need him and help realise the high expectations we have of him. I hope so. But political compromise in the grab for power has been obviously on show in the first few weeks.

     

     

  • John Menadue. The new compradors and the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement

    Compradors are sometimes described as those who help a foreign country exploit their own. I was reminded of this when I read that the ALP Caucus had compromised its concerns over jobs for Australians and was prepared to waive the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement through the parliament with only a ‘diluted’ list of demands as the AFR put it.

    If this agreement proceeds, Australian workers are likely to be much more vulnerable. Not surprisingly the President of the ACTU, Ged Kearney said that ‘this is about Australian jobs so we will keep fighting for those jobs’. No wonder the unions are unhappy about the attitude of Labor parliamentarians.

    There is a problem; a large Labor elite with fellow travellers whose careers outside parliament as consultants and lobbyists depend on Chinese connections and largesse. They are cultivated with money, travel and entertainment. They cling like limpets to the relationship with China. They have a lot to lose if they upset China. And it shows.

    As Upton Sinclair put it so succinctly ‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it’.

     

     

  • Nicholas Reece. Falling behind in the innovation stakes

    Malcolm Turnbull has promised a new innovation policy for Australia by Christmas. Bill Shorten has pledged to be a “jobs prime minister for the new economy”. For the first time in a long while, the political rhetoric matches a genuinely huge national policy challenge.

    In the past 15 years, there have been more than 60 reports on Australia’s national innovation system. They all broadly reach the same finding: Australia suffers from a failure to turn public research into commercial outcomes, to generate higher levels of business research and development, to adapt new technologies and skills, and to participate effectively in global value chains.

    Despite all the reports, there has been precious little action and an embarrassing lack of coherence in Australia’s policy settings. As a result, Australia finds itself languishing near the bottom of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development when it comes to the commercialisation of research and in the middle of the pack when it comes to investment in higher education, research and innovation. This is a very dangerous portent for future prosperity.

    If there is a silver lining in Australia being so far behind world leaders in innovation – such as the Nordic states, Israel, Singapore, Britain, South Korea and United States – it is the existence of strong evidence about what works. Now we just need our leaders to make the bold policy interventions that will drive Australia’s economic transformation.

    These advanced economies all approach innovation systematically, with agile development agencies that foster collaboration and plug gaps in the innovation ecosystem.

    According to chief scientist Ian Chubb​, Australia is the only country in the OECD without a national research and innovation plan. China has the explicit goal of being the greatest investor in research and development in the world within a decade. Japan wants to be the No. 1 global innovator by 2018. Australia?

    We need a clear plan with an inspirational vision and goals – all backed up by our political leaders as proselytisers-in-chief.

    One useful intervention would be to set up a national innovation body like NESTA in Britain, to provide strategic leadership of the nation’s innovation and research effort, and stimulate debate and entrepreneurial activity. If the Productivity Commission is like Australia’s personal trainer, keeping the economy lean and fit, then an Australian NESTA could be the coach, driving the relentless pursuit of innovation and building entrepreneurial skills and culture.

    Instead, we have a Canberra-based bureaucracy that thinks its only purpose is to find and destroy “rent seeking”, like a heat-seeking missile. The result is that high-potential industries do not get the support they need, and globalisation has left us with a national economy that resembles a twisted reflection in a circus hall of mirrors: a gutted manufacturing sector; a dominant mining industry with its cycle of boom and bust; and domestically focused oligopolies of banks, insurers and retailers.

    Australia needs to make a game-changing investment in wealth-generating research, innovation and commercialisation.

    The Australian government allocates about 2.4 per cent of gross domestic product to research and innovation – about the same as it did in 1984. By comparison, South Korea has a target of 5 per cent.

    But the problem is much deeper than just the quantum. The priorities and incentives embodied in the allocation of funds are also problematic. More than half is allocated to public research agencies, medical research institutes and universities. A further 30 per cent goes to business through R and D tax measures. Comparatively little funding is available to support research engagement between business, universities and research organisations.

    For example, the Co-operative Research Centres program, which builds links between researchers and business, makes up just 1.5 per cent of total support for science, research and innovation, and the recently revamped Entrepreneurs’ Program accounts for 0.4 per cent.

    Britain has allocated $3 billion over five years to its Catapult Centres, promoting industry/university collaboration, compared with $190 million over the same period for the Growth Centre equivalents in Australia.

    The US government invests nearly 10 times more than we do as a percentage of GDP in business feasibility studies intended to convert research into proven technologies. The lack of an equivalent to the widely lauded US Small Business Innovation Research scheme here represents a major hole in our innovation ecosystem. That scheme is credited with triggering a fundamental shift in attitudes in US universities towards research being converted into a product or service.

    Australia also needs to plug gaps in the innovation pipeline that funds research and technology breakthroughs into commercial applications. The “valley of death” for businesses that have received venture capital is well known, but other gaps exist at the pre-seed, proof-of-concept,  and angel investor stages. The problem can be fixed with improved funding programs run by sector experts, and new taxation arrangements.

    Finland, with a quarter of the population of Australia, invests about $200 million a year in young growth companies. In Australia, the closest equivalent program is investing $350 million over 14 years.

    Finally, our government could do something really bold with our immigration program. Immigrant-led entrepreneurism is a key ingredient in the economic success of countries like Australia and the US. Immigrants make up 17 per cent of the US economy, yet 50 per cent of business start-ups in Silicon Valley have at least one immigrant as a founder. Nearly all of them are graduates of the US university system.

    The evidence in Australia tells a similar story. The University of Melbourne runs the Melbourne Accelerator Program, ranked 13th in the world among university business accelerators. Over the past three years, 46 per cent of the new businesses that have come through the program have had at least one immigrant founder.

    The Obama administration has moved to offer overseas graduate students six-year working visas. Australia should match it with something equally brave.

    Nicholas Reece is a principal fellow at Melbourne University and a former policy adviser to Julia Gillard, Steve Bracks and John Brumby.

  • Luke Fraser. Shorten, Infrastructure Australia and boldness.

    Infrastructure Australia (IA) has truly become something to conjure with; it has even spawned a comedy series. Where is it headed? Last week Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten outlined Labor’s vision. This involved:

    • a new $10 billion IA financing facility to encourage spending;
    • putting trillions of Australian superannuant money to work in infrastructure investments;
    • IA to become an investment bank of sorts

    The problem here lies in promoting more investment in infrastructure along the same lines as today.

    Lack of infrastructure spending is the least of Australia’s problems.

    Michael Keating and I demonstrated in an article ‘Infrastructure: Improvement or Impoverishment?‘ the Fairness, Opportunity and Security series just how vast infrastructure spending has become in less than a decade: between when Kevin Rudd assumed power in 2007 and relinquished it in 2013, public capital formation – mostly infrastructure investment – rose by over a third. Capital formation in transport, postal and warehousing grew by almost 50 per cent; net capital stock grew by an almost incredible 39 per cent. If spending is your goal, then as Harold Macmillan said, stop complaining – you’ve never had it so good.

    The real problem is what we spend the money on and at what cost.

    In roads, Australia spends over thirty billion dollars each year without recourse to independently verified business cases for most large projects. Few appear economic, even fewer bankable. Some are community service obligations and probably justified on this basis. Other very clearly are not: they are simply enormous wastes of money. Non-bankable projects pose a problem for Shorten’s hopes to unlock trillions in superannuation finance.   East-West Link was an $8 billion dollar project with a business case delivering as little as 45 cents in the dollar, yet it was supported at the very highest levels of Victorian and Commonwealth transport bureaucracies and treasuries. Shorten’s reforms are silent on this sort of incompetence, but it is the main game. There have been plenty of similar duds promoted under Labor state governments. Both sides of politics are caught in a ridiculous system: political will for infrastructure is all-consuming, but the appetite for clear-sighted microeconomic reforms which nurture more productive investments is absent.

    What is this costing? Modern road spending above available fuel tax and vehicle registration revenue saw roads generate multi-billion dollar new government debt in each year from 2007 onwards. The last reported figures (2012-13) work out to over $26 billion; today’s real figure is probably more like $38 billion. This is a worthy challenge for a new Commonwealth Treasurer keen on arresting wasteful spending.

    IA’s assertion that all this spending is about busting congestion is based heavily on long-discredited data around urban car use: actual growth in capital city car use from 2007 to 2014 has been overstated by factors of between around six and eight for all state capitals. In Adelaide, 2014 government figures show car growth actually dropped over those years in net terms, rather than grew[i]. Yet the 2007 forecasts continue to be quoted.

    Australia can do better.

    IA should list all projects it has rejected and publish the detailed reasons for rejection. This would inform better policy making. Conversely, it would be cause for concern if IA hadn’t rejected any projects lately: it should be either helping projects towards productive inception or showing them the door.

    An ambitious government should support IA to walk and chew gum at the same time: to get its head above projects and call out the structural reforms that – if pursued – could attract large, bankable new investments. IA has developed a reputation for too carefully picking and choosing its fights on this higher plane. It was entirely silent on the National Broadband Network. Since 2013 it has maintained silence on government road debt. It offers little on some other highly-prospective areas for investor upside.

    Take irrigation: there have been no IA calls to roll back the flawed Murray-Darling Basin Plan, corporatize the delivery of water in the basin, rein in the over-allocation of water licenses and establish the necessary structural adjustments for those affected. This is a sector crying out for plain speaking: superannuation funds and banks should have reforms explained to them in longhand that if pursued could unlock productive, multi-billion dollar investments in irrigation infrastructure. Farming should be engaged on how irrigation reform can present Asian markets with a far greater Australian farm value proposition than it does today.

    In contrast, IA’s limp 2015 Infrastructure Audit offered only a line on page 127 of a report few will ever read, saying ‘more market reform in rural water is warranted’. No data quantifying how flawed the sector is to shame to action. No sketch of bankable deal structures that might be on offer to commercial investors if Australia reformed rural water. In short: not serious.

    To be fair to Mr Shorten it is hard to capture public attention with a vague call to put steel and leadership into Infrastructure Australia, yet these are the qualities most lacking. The new PM’s call to boldness should be heeded: IA should call a spade a spade on the wasteful, unreformed and unimaginative infrastructure sectors which hold Australia back. If those in charge can’t or don’t want to do so, they should hand in their badges. Government too should be bold enough to demand better solutions from its infrastructure tsar.

    Solutions are there for the asking. Investors are waiting.

    A forthcoming post offers some possible reform solutions and deal structures for the road and rail sectors – a follow up to an earlier piece on rail.

    Luke Fraser is founder and principal of Juturna, a public policy consultancy specialised in roads, freight and market investment reforms. He is a former national trucking industry CEO and has authored several reform studies for Infrastructure Australia. In 2012 he was appointed to the COAG Road Reform Board. He was for a time a chief of staff in the Howard government.
    [i] Sources: Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities Working Paper No 71 www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2007/wp_071.aspx;

    Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics, Australian infrastructure statistics yearbook 2014, December 2014

     

  • John Menadue. The infrastructure mess and wasteful road spending.

    Former prime minister Tony Abbott said that he planned to be the infrastructure prime minister. There was little to show for it apart from wasteful spending on roads. He said that the Commonwealth should ‘stick to its knitting’ and not get involved in funding public infrastructure. His focus was on roads.

    Our new prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull has spoken at the weekend of exploring radical road and rail funding, and has announced Commonwealth funding for a light rail project on the Gold Coast.

    Last week Bill Shorten announced a $10 b. infrastructure plan which even suggested giving Infrastructure Australia a trading licence!

    There is a lot of rhetoric and a lot of talk about infrastructure. Before it all gets out of hand we should stop and consider the present mess. And a mess it is. The motoring, road construction and political lobbies are promoting waste and confusion.

    In July last year Infrastructure Australia put out a draft report to canvas public comment. This is quite usual practice. The report was hastily withdrawn and the Co-ordinator General sent on ‘extended leave’. It seems that the government didn’t want a rigorous and transparent discussion on infrastructure.

    There were two particular media reports at the time that are worth re-reading. Extracts from an article by Alan Kohler give a flavour of his concern. “The whole problem with road funding in Australia is too much government involvement and not enough private rigour … Here’s the arresting heading of one of the chapters [in Information Australia’s draft report] … Australia’s nearly $20 b. annual road spend can only be described as hideously inefficient. … Australia has a true gamblers’ addiction to roads: the money spent is not a rational investment.”  See link to Kohler article below.

    www.ycat.org.au/?news=why-dont-they-do-it-in-the-road

    Josh Gordon in The Age said ‘“The Infrastructure Australia report … has delivered a scathing critique of monopoly state run road entities such as VicRoads, claiming a culture of resisting reform that has led to a situation in which political leaders are held captive to demands for more funding. … More than $20 b. a year of national road funding is being spent in a hideously inefficient manner. … The current Australian system assumes that roads are an answer to most transport problems and seeks more and more funding to that end with little consideration of alternatives that most other parts of the world enjoy, such as significant heavy intercontinental rail networks and dominant heavy mass transit systems. … The report is also critical of the federal government’s efforts to predict increases in road traffic, claiming urban congestion has consistently been overstated as a result.  See link to article below:

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/billions-spent-on-roads-in-8220hideously-inefficient8221-way-20140722-zvqcg.html

  • Misha Coleman. Open Letter to Julie Bishop on Sri Lankan war crimes.

    8 October 2015.

    Dear Ms Bishop

    Thank you for co-sponsoring the UN Human Rights Committee resolution negotiated by the Sri Lankan Government, which will hopefully provide some answers and finality to the mothers of 146,679 missing people, through the establishment of a domestic war crimes panel.  You’ll know that these Buddhist, Hindu, Muslim and Christian mothers are still looking for their children, their husbands, and they still long to re-inhabit their houses and their land.  (The resolution is essentially the response to the investigation which was undertaken by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights into atrocities committed in the final decade of a 26-year civil war, and was passed unanimously last Thursday).

    SRI LANKAN GOVERNMENT OFF THE HOOK
    Given the plethora of horror contained in the 272 page OHCHR report, the ultimate wording of resolution is understated to say the least. The Sri Lankan administration is reported to be ecstatic with the final wording: Colombo newspapers reporting last week that “Sri Lanka is happy that it is off the noose”, and the Prime Minister being quoted last week as saying that his successful negotiation of the final wording (much watered-down from the original) means that “I have kept (the former President) Rajapaksa out of the electric chair.”

    Given the closeness of the relationship between Australia and Sri Lanka, we ask you to support the ‘new’ Sirisena/ Wickremesinghe Government to move swiftly on a number of reforms, without further postponements and delays, in return for the ongoing diplomatic and financial support that Australia continues to bestow upon the Sri Lankan leadership. Immediate reforms are also crucial since the resolution adopted today has no timeframe for implementation.

    URGENT REFORMS
    Key and urgent reforms include the review and repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act which provides, amongst other things, legal ‘cover’ for torture and random detention. Another problematic piece of legislation is the Strategic Development Act, which appears to facilitate the confiscation and occupation by the Army of private land, for ”strategic’ developments such as coal-fired power stations, tourism projects and golf courses. It’s also difficult to understand the necessity and wisdom of the recently expanded Public Security Ordinance – which gives military the powers to act in a policing role, noting that there are an estimated 160 000 soldiers in the north and east now (with not much to do), representing about one soldier to every six civilians.

    DECIDING TO RETURN
    You’ll also know that a huge factor in people’s decision to return to Sri Lanka and to the north is their ability to reclaim the land they owned and inhabited – but it’s estimated that of the 67 000 acres of land occupied by the Sri Lankan military in the north, only 1000 acres has been released/returned to date.

    EXPECTATIONS?
    So what do you expect from the resolution? There is certainly an expectation by many Sri Lankans that those who are responsible for deliberate murders of civilians, deliberate bombing of hospitals and no-fire zones, and even genocide if proven, must be punished. This is an expectation that applies to LTTE cadres, the military and the political machinery. It should be noted though that around 18 000 members of the LTTE have already been punished and ‘rehabilitated’.

    And the victor’s wrath continues: frequent reports are still made that former LTTE cadre are being picked up off the streets and taken to the dreaded Terrorism Investigation Division for example. Only last week, a man who claims to have left the LTTE in 1997 was arrested by the Terrorism Investigation Division and allegedly transferred to the notorious 4th floor ‘torture department’.

    WHAT NEXT?
    If you expect Sri Lanka to move on, and recognise that the days of the LTTE are over, surely Australia can also finally release those asylum seekers from our detention centres who arrived towards the end of the civil war (2008/2009) many of whom have been in detention in Australia for more than five years, based on adverse ASIO assessments which were often largely based on information provided by the former and highly corrupt Rajapaksan Government.

    JULIE BISHOP: WHAT ELSE CAN YOU DO?
    Hundreds of Sri Lankan asylum seekers still languish in legal limbo in Australia, awaiting their claims for asylum to be processed, while ongoing harassment continues towards their family members who remained behind in Sri Lanka.

    The expedient narrative that those who have fled Sri Lanka since the end of the civil war are “economic migrants”, includes those who have lost their children, lost their spouses, lost their jobs, their homes and their land-is this the definition of an economic migrant that you use during the on-water, enhanced screening process that was especially designed by the Department of Immigration for Sri Lankan asylum seekers?

    Australia has rewarded the new Sri Lankan Government with political and diplomatic support, which has resulted in the foreshadowed economic and travel sanctions against the political leadership being taken off the table, and which has helped the new Government to regain international credibility.

    Will you now reward the Sri Lankan people with your support for some genuine reform, and will you please process – fairly – the hundreds of Sri Lankans who have sought protection from you and your Government in Australia?

    Misha Coleman is the Executive Officer of the Australian Churches’ Refugee Taskforce and wrote this letter from Colombo, Sri Lanka.

    This letter was distributed to members of the Australian Churches Refugee Taskforce.

     

  • Bob Kinnaird. 750,000 temporary residents with work rights.

    The recent Fairfax/ABC Four Corners reports exposing widespread exploitation and wage abuse of overseas students and other visa workers in 7-11 stores, horticulture and other sectors have been justly applauded as outstanding examples of investigative journalism.

    Their impact has been immediate, forcing 7-11 to set up an independent investigation panel chaired by Alan Fels and 7-11 chairman Mr Russ Withers to resign.

    The latest Fairfax report was titled ‘The Precariat’ (SMH, 3 October 2015). The term combines ‘precarious’ and ‘proletariat’ and was coined by British economist Guy Standing. It means broadly workers reliant on transitory and insecure work, though not necessarily low-skill.

    The government’s response to the scandal so far has been underwhelming. This is strange, since Trade Minister Robb says that two ‘super-growth’ industries for Australia’s economic and jobs future are international education and tourism. Both are indirectly implicated in the exploitation scandals in 7-11 and elsewhere. A prudent government would do more to secure their long-term future.

    Senator Cash In her new capacity as Employment Minister in the Turnbull government declared there was no need for government regulation of the labour hire industry, one of the central players in this sordid scene: industry self-regulation was her preferred way.

    As Assistant Immigration Minister she had earlier announced that three months ‘volunteer’ (i.e. unpaid) work by working holiday 417 visa-holders would no longer qualify them for a second-year 417 visa. That long-overdue correction was a reaction to an earlier ABC Four Corners program on mainly Asian working holiday makers being exploited in the fruit and vegetable sector.

    The Fairfax ‘Precariat’ report points out that the end of last year, Australia was host to 750,000 foreigners on temporary visas with some work rights, mostly on student, working holiday and 457 skilled visas. Another 470,000 people were here on visitor visas, largely for tourism. Technically they have no work rights but many do work unlawfully.

    This 750,000 figure actually understates the size of the temporary visa workforce because it is a snapshot at 31 December when many temporary visa-holders go home for the work shutdown or summer break and are outside Australia at this time. In June 2014, the figure was 840,000.

    Alongside the foreign worker exploitation issue, two related issues need attention. The first is the impact on Australian workers especially young people who bear the brunt of cut-throat job competition from the burgeoning temporary visa-holder work force. Between June 2007 and 2014, the number of overseas students and working holiday visa holders in Australia grew by 50 per cent, from 324,800 to 490,960.

    Expressed as a proportion of the 15-24 year old labour force (June 2007 vs 2014, latest available), the stock of WHMs and overseas students has grown from 16 per cent to 24 per cent of the total youth labour force in Australia.

    Most of these temporary visa-holders are young people and compete in the entry-level job market. Not all work, but most do.

    The impact on young Australians is clear in many indicators: declining labour force participation rates among young people, rising youth unemployment and underemployment, increasing unemployment rates among new graduates and many others.

    Competition from the growing temporary visa work force is not the only factor responsible. Increased participation rates in higher education and some welfare disincentives to work also contribute, among other things. Successive governments have failed to commission any serious study of the labour market impacts of this recent explosive growth in this temporary visa workforce. But this level of growth in labour supply is bound to have major impacts especially in times of sluggish employment growth, even before considering the characteristics of the additional labour.

    The second issue is the role of government international education and visa policies that are feeding the growth in Australia of a vast underclass of temporary visa holders desperate for work and ripe for exploitation.

    These policies need to change or the already large underclass of temporary visa workers will grow even larger, if international education and tourism do become Australia’s super-growth’ industries.

    International education and visa policies

    The two most serious examples are international education and visa policies for overseas students and graduates. Working holiday visas are also another serious area, not dealt with here.

    When Australia’s international education industry started in the mid-1980s under Labor, overseas students had no work rights in Australia. The target market was foreign students whose families were wealthy enough that their fee-paying sons and daughters didn’t need to work in Australia to survive. They were also in university study only, not low-rent private vocational colleges.

    Over time the government’s international education policies have changed dramatically. They now increasingly target overseas students from families with far less wealth and resources especially in the vocational education (VET) sector. Many go into debt to fund their Australian study and hope for a long-term employer-sponsored 457 visa or permanent residence (PR) visa. Many of these students need to work for much of their time here just to survive or send money back home, and are prepared to work for $6/hour or less. Some even pay their employer for the job, to secure 457 employer sponsorship or employer certification of ‘work experience’ needed for some visas, as reported in a Monash study I co-authored with Bob Birrell and others (‘Cooks galore and hairdressers aplenty’, People and Place, 2007).

    Over time the government has also expanded work rights for overseas students and graduates to give Australian international education providers a marketing advantage over other competitor destinations. What is being sold here is not the quality of the education offering but the right to work in Australia.

    The work rights on student visas now are 40 hours a fortnight during term and unrestricted hours the rest of the year.

    The most important recent development is the post-study work visa (485 visa) introduced by the former Labor government. This visa now gives overseas student graduates from higher education degree courses, in any field of study, unrestricted work rights in Australia for 2 to 4 years, depending on the qualification level. The vocational education (VET) sector is lobbying hard for the same post-study work visa. It is probably just a matter of time before they succeed. At present overseas student VET graduates can only get a more restricted 485 visa, limited to courses in occupations on the government’s skill shortages list and only for 18 months.

    The Immigration department says it expects 70 per cent of eligible overseas student graduates to take up the post-study work visa – a massive 200,000 by 2017-18, regardless of unemployment among Australian graduates whose numbers are set to grow rapidly at exactly this time, a result of policy-driven increased enrolments in the last five years or so.

    All overseas students and the graduates on 485 post-study work visas compete in the labour market with no legal obligation on employers to give preference to young Australians or to undertake labour market testing. Many overseas student graduates on 485 post-study work visas will end up competing in the lower-end of the job market, if UK experience with a similar program is any guide. That means even more pressure on young Australians with low skills looking for entry-level jobs.

    Incredibly, none of these extensions of work rights to overseas students or graduates including the post-study work visa has ever been based on any serious assessment of the impact on Australian residents in the job market. The Knight review, which recommended introducing the post-study work visa, completely ignored its potential labour market impact on local graduates and non-graduates.

    The main policy driver, as always, is to grow the international education sector and increase overseas student numbers and revenue. Governments like this, because it takes pressure off their education budgets. Business likes this, because it means a larger domestic market for their products and services, increased labour supply and downward pressure on wages.

    The policy changes needed are clear but unlikely, given the institutional resistance and vested interests.

    First, Australia’s international education policies should not be targeting relatively poor overseas students for onshore course delivery in Australia. Onshore provision should be targeted more to high-yield/high fee courses and well-funded students, not at overseas students so poor they have to work 40 hours/fortnight just to stay alive. If this segment is to be targeted, more emphasis should be given to providing courses offshore.

    Second, the overseas student graduate post-study 485 work visa needs a complete rethink. The timing is bad enough, coming into operation just as the Australian economy faces several years of below-trend growth, with no visa mechanism for protecting Australian graduates and job seekers. The number of 485 visas is not limited in any way and will be determined simply by graduate demand for them.

    At the very least, the visa should be restricted to graduates in occupations on the skill shortage list.

    Bob Kinnaird is Research Associate with The Australian Population Research Institute and was National Research Director CFMEU National Office 2009-14.

     

     

  • Nauru and the Philippines

    Three days ago, on 6 October, I posted a story ‘Nauru and the Philippines‘. That story carried an unconfirmed report that the Australian government was negotiating with the Philippines government for the transfer of 600 asylum seekers in Nauru to the Philippines.

    Since then there have been several reports confirming the thrust of this story, even though there has been no confirmation from the Philippine or the Australian government. These reports indicate that the discussions are proceeding, but are not yet concluded. The detail of the arrangement will be very important, particularly the residential status of any asylum seekers transferred to the Philippines. See below the links to the reports in The Guardian (Daniel Hurst and Ben Doherty) and UCAnews (Michael Sainsbury). The reports have also been covered in several News Ltd publications.

    John Menadue

    http://www.ucanews.com/news/philippines-latest-asian-nation-to-stand-in-for-australia-on-refugees/74403

    http://gu.com/p/4d64j/sbl

  • Nicholas Rowley. Cleaning up the mess on climate policy.

    It is one of the rarely considered consequences of the sad story of Australia’s national policy response to climate change, that many of our finest public servants have sadly wasted years of analysis and effort to dutifully serve the demands of their political masters.

    More than ten years ago analysis by Ken Henry under then Treasurer Peter Costello recommended a national emissions trading scheme. The advice was ignored. In 2006 John Howard asked Peter Shergold, then Head of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, to examine the most effective ways to achieve the emissions reductions required. He too concluded an emissions trading scheme was necessary. Wanting to adopt his own approach, the advice was ignored by incoming Prime Minister Rudd.

    Then in 2010 Kevin Rudd’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme hit the buffers of the Copenhagen outcome and Prime Ministerial hubris; Malcolm Turnbull, then Leader of the Opposition, lost his job over his climate policy stance and the political debate declined to resemble the name calling so prevalent at second rate Polytechnics in North London circa 1970: all dominated by toxic gesture.

    Despite Prime Minister Gillard’s noble efforts to achieve some modicum of policy stability and continuity, her government’s initially fixed carbon pricing system was swiftly dismantled by Prime Minister Abbott, together with attempts to either abolish or thwart the work of new organizations doing important, tangible work and investment such as the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) and the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA).

    It is a sad and sorry story. Much like looking into the teenager’s bedroom, the temptation is take a brief look and walk away from the mess.

    But we can’t. Largely because the issue won’t go away: the dynamics behind the problem are fixed, and the decisions taken by Australia’s major allies and trading partners will come to effect our economy whether we like it not. As the current Governor of the Bank of England said so succinctly last week in a speech at Lloyds in London “with climate change, the more businesses invest and change with foresight, the less they will regret in hindsight.” It is a speech that is well worth reading in full, and would no doubt be of great interest to Turnbull, formerly an investment banker.

    And what is true for businesses is also being recognized by China, India, the European Union and the United States. No longer is climate change a niche concern: it has increasingly become part of the policy and business mainstream.

    Malcolm Turnbull’s ascendancy to the Prime Ministership is potentially a vital circuit breaker. From the moment his predecessor came to office “climate” and “change” were two words that could not be used together in the Commonwealth bureaucracy. Simply with Abbott’s removal those working in the central agencies, the CEFC and ARENA can breath a collective sigh of relief.

    Clearly the Prime Minister has (understandably) gained power on a number of promises including that the existing ‘direct action’ policy will remain untouched. But this is not a great problem for Turnbull. He knows that effective climate policy must send clear, stable and continuous messages across the economy about the important and economically rational imperative of reducing emissions.

    Direct action doesn’t do this. It is relevant only to the businesses who receive public money to do things that otherwise they wouldn’t. It is wasteful, and most likely so costly to be unsustainable beyond a few years.

    And with the government committed to the reductions stated in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted to the United Nations to reduce greenhouse emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, Turnbull is going to need new policies to achieve it.

    If he manages an election victory next year, then my sense is that there will be a renewed sense of creativity and urgency amongst our leading public servants to finally achieve a sensible national approach to reducing the risks of climate change. At the risk of stretching a concluding metaphor, Prime Minister Turnbull might just be the adult Prime Minister who will walk into that bedroom and clean up the climate policy mess left by his teenage predecessors.

     

    Nick Rowley is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Sydney and represents Robertsbridge in Australia and southeast Asia. Previously he advised Prime Minister Tony Blair on climate change and sustainability and helped initiate the seminal Review into the Economics of Climate Change undertaken by Lord Nicholas Stern of Brentford.

     

  • Cavan Hogue. Russia in Syria and Australian implications.

    What are Australia’s objectives in the Middle East imbroglio? The simple answer is that it is about the American Alliance. We see ourselves as part of a global alliance led by the USA and generally supported by European powers: countries that  “share our values”. We are there because they are. Therefore the fact that our military presence makes no difference to the situation in Syria or in defeating ISIS is not really relevant. Nor is it relevant that our military presence does nothing to discourage idealistic young Australians from joining ISIS and may even encourage them. Neither is it relevant that the US doesn’t really know what it is doing there. But of course domestic politics in Australia are always relevant.

    Russia does have clear strategic objectives in supporting Bashir al Assad just as it does in Crimea and Ukraine. Western pressure, including sanctions, only entrenches Putin’s domestic popularity because he is seen as a strong man who defends the Motherland against foreign oppressors. So Putin does not need to give in to American and NATO huffing and puffing. Russians distrust NATO and even more the US who they do not believe have any right to the moral highground – especially since it was the illegal Coalition of the Willing that opened Pandora’s Box. So Putin will negotiate but will not give anything important away.  Who is the greater evil: ISIS or Bashir al Assad?  Furthermore it is increasingly obvious that the current strategy is not working so the Americans must eventually go back to the drawing board which means either go home, get heavily involved militarily on the ground or work with Assad. Russia holds the cards in the Ukraine/Crimea situation and no doubt believes it has the winning cards in Syria also. While the aircraft that strayed into Turkish airspace probably was a navigational error as the Russians claim, the Russians argue that everyone opposed to Assad is a terrorist and their aim is to support their rooster against “terrorists”. Therefore they may well be targeting non-ISIS groups opposed to Assad but they are not likely to listen to sermons from NATO. It could also be a ploy to pressure others to support Assad. As the US found out when it armed the Taliban against the USSR, it is not always easy to know who are the goodies and who are the baddies.

    Australia is a babe in the Middle Eastern woods where various factions fight other factions in an ever changing kaleidoscope. We would be well advised to keep out of the region and stop kidding ourselves that we have influence. The US expects us to toe the line but we could try to persuade them to be more realistic and less ideological .However our track record is not encouraging. Russia sees us as simply a camp follower of the USA and so is not really interested in our views .Prime Minister Turnbull is showing some awareness of reality by noting that a military solution is not an option and seems to understand that our military presence in the region is more likely to radicalise young idealists than calm them down. It will be interesting to see what develops.

    Cavan Hogue was formerly Australian ambassador to USSR and to Russia.

  • Wasteful costs in health.

    Following the ABC Four Corners program on health costs in Australia, there have been a number of very good follow up articles.

    The first, in The Conversation on 29 September is by Ray Moynihan ‘Costly and harmful: we need to tame the tsunami of too much medicine’.

    https://theconversation.com/costly-and-harmful-we-need-to-tame-the-tsunami-of-too-much-medicine-48239

    The second, in the AFR on 5 October, is by Neil Soderlund, Sam Stewart and Jan Willem Kuenen is entitled ‘Why overtreatment is costing Aussies $30 billion per year and how to fix it’.

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/why-overtreatment-is-costing-aussies-30-billion-per-year-and-how-to-fix-it-20151005-gk1ktn

  • John Menadue. Nauru and the Philippines!

    The Nauru government has announced that the remaining 600 asylum seekers in the island’s immigration detention centre will be processed over the next week. This comes after a delay of two years and remarkably slow processing. Why this welcome change? What is afoot?

    We know that the Australian government is engaged in bilateral negotiations with several regional countries in trying to relocate asylum seekers. In this context I have seen an unconfirmed report that the Australian government is in discussions with the Philippines government to take asylum seekers from Nauru. If this speculation is confirmed, much will depend on what is negotiated. But an improved outcome could be in prospect.

    There are several issues to be kept in mind. First, the detention centres in Manus and particularly, Nauru, are unsustainable. The government and government officials know this. Detainees particularly on Nauru are not safe and the Australian government and its contractors have failed to protect the poor souls in our detention centres. Second, an alternative must be found that safeguards the rights of detainees. Third, any change must not give people smugglers even a hint that they can get back into business. With a new prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, the people smugglers will be looking very carefully for any sign that they could sell their services again to vulnerable and desperate people.

    If the speculation about the Philippines is confirmed, and depending on the package negotiated, this could be a welcome change. The Philippines is the only Refugee  Convention signatory country in our region with a reasonable track record in the treatment of asylum seekers and refugees. The other signatory countries are Papua New Guinea, Nauru and Cambodia. The Philippines has an Emergency Transit Facility which was established through a Memorandum of Understanding between UNHCR and the Philippines government. The Philippines have consistently acted responsibly in relation to refugees. For example they gave local integration to all Vietnamese after the end of the Indochina program. It was the only country in the region to do so. The Philippines helped with the Oceanic Viking. They recently offered to assist with the Rohingya people.

    But there are many unanswered questions. Is permanent settlement being discussed and what has Australia agreed to? It is unlikely that the Philippines would agree to forced removal as they are a Refugee Convention signatory country.

    Importantly, if these discussions with the Philippines are afoot, we should avoid pointing a finger at the Philippines in the way that we did with an earlier proposal with Malaysia. The Malaysian government was severely criticised by many for its treatment of refugees even though we have a very blemished record ourselves.

    The important issue to keep top and centre is the plight of asylum seekers in Manus, and particularly Nauru, rather than seeking to score domestic political points.

    I will not be surprised if it is confirmed that the Australian government might be in negotiations with the Philippines government. But a lot will depend on the package. Keep tuned.

     

  • Richard Butler. Russia and Syria: The continuation of politics by other means.

    In their addresses to the UN General assembly, last week, Presidents Obama and Putin focused on the civil war in Syria. Both emphasized the need for the war, now in its 5th year, to be brought to an end. They both said that a political solution needed to be found, but they differed on a central issue: the role of Syrian President Bashir Al Assad.

    The US position widely supported by western and key regional states and, of course, Syrian groups fighting the regime, was that Assad and his government must go. The Russian position was that Assad’s government is the legitimate authority in Syria and it must have a role in any negotiations to bring about an end to the conflict and determine the future government of Syria. Even before Putin’s public address, Obama stated in his, that Assad might be given a transitional role, but could not be left standing at the end. This was seen as a concession by the US. Indeed, conservative critics of Obama decried this as yet another sign of his inherent weakness.

    Importantly, both Presidents agreed that it was essential for the Islamic State (IS) to be removed. There was an expectation that, in their subsequent private meeting, they might be able to identify ways in which, despite their differing basic positions, they might forge a political/diplomatic process through which an end to the war was negotiated.

    While there was no substantive indication of what took place in that meeting, other events which took place immediately thereafter, were very clear.

    Obama invited States prepared to form a coalition against IS to join him in a meeting, which he chaired. Sixty States took part. Australia was one. Extradordinarily, given the history of US/Iraqi involvement, Iraq was not. This group pledged to step up and coordinate action to defeat IS.

    Putin announced the formation of a group with a similar purpose. It was formed by 4 States: Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. It mirrored the establishment in Baghdad, a few weeks earlier, of a common intelligence and coordination center targeted on the situation in Syria.

    Within the same period and while this public political discourse was taking place at the UN, Russia was moving significant military assets, mainly although not exclusively, aerial assets into western Syria.

    Three days after the UN speeches and talks had concluded, Russia launched its first attacks on targets on the ground in Syria. They have continued daily since then. Credible reports indicate that their targets have been, in the main, forces opposed to the Assad government, not IS. Russia has not stated why this has occurred, what exactly is intended, for how long or far this military action goes.

    But, these things are clear. Russia has now entered the Syrian and regional contest in a significant way. Putin gave some of the reasons for this in his UN speech. Russia is not prepared to accept a world shaped by US power or the notion so favored by the US that is “the exceptional country”. It believes that the west abused the authority given by the UN Security Council to protect threatened citizens in Libya by extending that to regime change in Libya. Russia will never accept external intervention to change a legitimately constituted government.      (See my paper on Russian foreign policy, Pearls and Irritations, January 5th, 2015)

    As ever, in international politics, the stated reasons for extraordinary action, especially military action, are never the whole or real reasons. Naturally, Putin has not highlighted publicly other issues which clearly are of concern to him because of the threat they pose to his hold on power; The existence of potentially jihadist groups within Russia, and his reliance upon support from small but immensely powerful groups in Russia, principally with economic interests.

    He is convinced that this pressure demand from him the visible exercise of strength, of strong government, and this in turn, is a crucial element in his wider public popularity.

    The Russians and others have watched US bombing in Syria for almost a year and have noticed that its usefulness in “degrading and defeating” IS has been questionable, to say the least, but that the impact of the actions of Syrian rebels, supported by the west have been starting to threaten the Assad regime. It is the latter trend that has more likely stimulated Russian military intervention.

    The complexity of the situation in the region, with facets not unlike a rubic cube, is now underlined by immediate reactions to Russia’s military actions and its 4-power coalition.

    Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf States see it entirely through the lens of their obsession with the rise of Iran. They take virtually no refugees from Syria, they supply arms and money to the Syrian rebels, the very groups the Russians are now bombing, because they are opposed to Assad, and that because he is supported by Iran. They welcome some of the US’ actions but not necessarily the nuclear agreement with Iran.

    Turkey, with its long and troubled border with Syria and what it sees as its Kurdish problem, and its fairly good relationship with Russia, but bitter opposition to Assad, has promoted the idea of a safe, no fly zone, in northern Syria. The entry of the Russian air force into the area has rendered that untenable.

    Perhaps above all, the US at least for the current moment seems to have no clear idea what to do, although it has just been reported that it is to increase military support to anti IS forces in Syria. It is now faced with the fact that its main nuclear armed rival has now entered, militarily, into a sphere, the gut politics of which it has thought it controlled, no matter how ineptly, and expected to continue to control. What can be done about the significantly increased possibility of military accidents between them?

    The underlying philosophy advanced by Putin at the UN, a conservative, state centered philosophy, has widespread appeal in UN circles and it is in large measure supported by international law. The US/UK/Australia invasion of Iraq in 2003 was contrary to international law. The removal of the Qadaffi regime in Libya was not what the UN authorized. Russia claims that its current military intervention in Syria is at the invitation of the legitimate government of Syria, and if this is so, then it’s legal. The action Russia then takes within Syria may be another matter and, it’s lying about its targets there is a case in point.

    Von Clausewitz’s now classic observation that, “war is the continuation of politics by other means”, would appear to be alive and well in Syria today and much of the region in which it lives. It is the approach the US has mostly employed, parlayed as pursuing peace through strength, and the Russians have now plainly adopted.

    The trouble with it is that it constitutes a continuum between violence and political settlements. It is always so costly and stupid because the settlement will come, even though it almost certainly will not be the one some would have preferred, yet only after insupportable cost. As Australia has chosen to be a participant in the US led coalition to address problems in Syria and Iraq, indeed has sent military assets there without public or parliamentary debate, we should in these new circumstances, seek respectful inclusion in policy discussion within the coalition. It should not be acceptable for our military simply to be given deployment orders. We should check ourselves any proposed deployments given the shocking errors in the US bombing of Doctors Without Borders in Kunduz.

    As, it seems that military competition between the US and Russia in a common theater is now more likely, and this could lead to calls for further engagement by Australia, the task of clarifying the legitimate legal and political means by which Australia decides to go to war has become urgent .

    (See www.warpowersreform.org.au)

    Richard Butler AC, Former Australian Ambassador to the UN and Executive Chairman of the UN Special Commission to Disarm Iraq (UNSCOM)

  • Spencer Zifcak. Human rights inquiry and a Charter of Rights!

    Tony Abbott and George Brandis always used strong rhetoric about the necessity to protect Australians’ traditional rights and freedoms. The reality under the Abbott government, however, was different. The rights of minority racial, religious, ethnic, refugee and environmental groups were relentlessly pared back. Those who stood up for human rights, like the President of the Australian Human Rights Commission, Gillian Triggs, and various UN Human Rights Rapporteurs, were shot when they conveyed their critical message.

    Nevertheless, it may yet be that the former Prime Minister and his Attorney-General will deliver to Australians a profoundly beneficial legacy with respect to human rights. That legacy looks like it will come in the form of the Australian Law Reform Commission’s (ALRC) current inquiry into the review of Commonwealth laws for their consistency with traditional rights, freedoms and privileges.

    Early in his term, Senator Brandis asked the ALRC to do two things. First, to identify Commonwealth laws that encroach upon traditional rights and freedoms and, secondly, to critically examine those laws to determine whether the encroachments identified could be justified. In the terms of reference, Brandis provided a very broad definition of such traditional freedoms.

    The ALRC has assumed this remit conscientiously, intelligently and energetically. In a recent interim report, which runs to 515 pages, it has identified hundreds of statutory provisions that may trespass upon traditional common law rights. The Commission is now calling for submissions to assist it in determining whether and to what extent these laws are justifiable.

    The nature and extent of legislative provisions that may be in breach of fundamental rights and freedoms will come a shock to anyone who cares to delve into the ALRC’s recent report. No report in recent decades has come close to providing such a detailed enumeration, description and analysis of statutory infringements of rights. Take freedom of speech and procedural fairness as examples.

    Commonwealth laws that may prohibit or restrict freedom of speech have been identified in criminal laws, secrecy laws, contempt laws, media and telecommunications laws, intellectual property laws, information laws and anti-discrimination laws. Not all of these laws will be unjustified but, equally, the ALRC has distinguished many that are likely to be.

    These include provisions in the Crimes Act, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Act, Aged Care Act, Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act, Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act, the Australian Intelligence Organisations Act and the recent Australian Border Force Act.

    Two recent cases illustrate free speech problems graphically. S.35P(1) of the ASIO Act provides that a person commits an offence if the person discloses information and the information relates to a ‘special intelligence operation.’ A special intelligence operation is defined as one established to carry out a special intelligence function that may involve an ASIO officer in the commission of a criminal or civil wrong. The penalty for the unauthorised disclosure of such information is five years imprisonment.

    This provision could slam the door on investigative journalism. All the government will need to do to stop a journalistic investigation with respect to security and intelligence is to warn media organizations that that such an investigation may relate to a ‘special intelligence operation’. Journalists are unlikely to court the possibility of gaol by writing further about their inquiries once such a caution has been issued.

    Pursuant to the recent Australian Border Force Act 2015, it is an offence for an ‘entrusted person’ to disclose information obtained by that person in the person’s capacity as an entrusted person. An entrusted person is defined to include Immigration and Border Protection Department workers. These workers can include external consultants, contractors or service providers such as doctors and welfare workers performing work by contract for the Department. Any person employed by an entrusted person will also be covered.

    The first people to find themselves silenced under this law will be those who work in Australia’s regional processing centres on Nauru and Manus Island. The law will reach far beyond this, however, muting every person involved in the provision of refugee legal, counselling and welfare services if their non-government employer is in receipt of government funding. This may be so even if the disclosure of the information would cause no harm to the public interest.

    Statutory encroachment upon the right to procedural fairness constitutes another hugely important class of potential rights violations. Procedural fairness is the entitlement that every person whose rights are adversely affected by a government decision has to contest the decision before an independent and impartial court or tribunal. Procedural fairness has not infrequently been denied in the spheres of corporate and commercial regulation, national security legislation and migration law. In recent years, there has been tidal wave of denials of procedural fairness in the latter category.

    There are four key areas of concern in relation to migration. These relate to the mandatory cancellation of visas (on character, security grounds or other grounds); the new ‘fast-track’ process for assessing applications for refugee status; changes to the Maritime Powers Act (the legislation which authorises boat turn-backs); and ASIO assessments in relation to refugees and non-citizens. In each, many former rights to procedural fairness have been swept away.

    So, for example, under the new fast-track procedure for assessing refugee status, immigration officers make initial decisions on refugee applications after asking asylum seekers a very limited number of standardised questions. Then, the Minister may (but need not) refer the officer’s decision to a newly constituted Immigration Assessment Authority (IAA).

    The IAA, however, can conduct its review without interviewing the applicant or conducting a hearing; without allowing an applicant to comment on adverse information or the reasons for the decision; without providing an applicant with any documents relied upon at the officer’s initial examination; and without considering any new information or evidence at the request of the applicant. In other words, procedural fairness has been rendered entirely nugatory.

    The ALRC has done remarkable work in identifying a plenitude of similar instances. It is already apparent from that work that Australia’s protection of traditional rights and freedoms can be characterized as piecemeal and haphazard. If it stays the course, the Commission’s final report is likely to stand as the most comprehensive analysis yet undertaken of the state of rights and freedoms in Australia.

    Given the numerous examples of statutory infringements of rights and freedoms that are likely to be identified, it may be time seriously to consider the most comprehensive and sensible solution to this mishmash: that is, the parliamentary enactment of an Australian Charter of Rights.

    Spencer Zifcak is Allan Myers Professor of Law at the Australian Catholic University and a former President of Liberty Victoria

     

  • Ranald Macdonald. The ABC and a Call to Arms.

    A CALL TO ARMS –Why this Country needs you to act. That is the title to my talk today and my exhortation to you all.

    The latest figures show over 400 ABC staff already “removed” from the ABC, as we edge towards its 500 target.

    The recent change in Prime Minister-ship has NOT changed expectations at the ABC or at SBS. The situation continues to be dire. I will try and explain why.

    It is terrific to see so many of you here to this Annual General Meeting of Friends of our ABC.

    It is a good word ‘friends’ because it means that in times of need – and let me emphasize that is NOW – by definition we are there for the ABC, to defend it against the naysayers, to support it in every way we can and if necessary to go to the barricades for it.

    And, can I suggest, we may well need to go to the barricades to ensure our public broadcaster can do its job.

    If you read the papers, all is happiness and light with the new PM, who just happens to be the former Communications Minister who announced the $270 million cuts, played the heavy with both board and staff of the ABC – and was part of Cabinet which approved the capricious decision of Julie Bishop to terminate the DFAT contract with the Australia Network.

    In the words of outstanding journalist and commentator Quentin Dempster, that decision “vandalized the ABC’s international reporting capacity” and has decimated Radio Australia.

    Which leads us to the positive role, we as Friends, can claim – and that is the right to demand that the ABC does better. We try to ensure that it fulfills its charter for all of Australia and provides us with the quality and range of programing we expect of it.

    As the wonderful John Clarke advised me, do not let the Friends be portrayed as WMDs – that is, Well Meaning Dills who just say everything the ABC does is great.

    I am sure everyone in this room has felt like

    throwing his or her shoes at the TV set or have actually turned off the radio when irritated by crass or rude questioning, or by the lack of quality of a program.

    The ABC is by no means perfect; it has become too Sydney-centric and lacking in depth and interpretation of overseas news stories. Some of its most popular productions have been truncated – though there are financial reasons for all this.

    Yet, this country needs our ABC, we need a strong and independent Australian voice – and decision makers need to be held to account by a properly sourced broadcaster.

    The ABC is under charter to provide quality programs across the full range of the news local and (let me emphasize) INTERNATIONAL, to cover the arts, provide original Australian productions promoting Australian talent, documentaries, children’s programming and sport. Rural and regional communities need the ABC’s involvement desperately – and they cannot be directed from Sydney or Melbourne without local involvement.

    Forget the annoyances, though, and think of the quality and range of what the ABC still offers us all – and at 13/14 cents a day.

    Further, imagine the impact on our democracy – of the quality of public debate – if Murdoch further rules the waves through a weakened and uncompetitive ABC and a truncated SBS.

    When I asked Ron Tandberg to draw us a cartoon, he came up with the concept front-paged on your excellent UPDATE and on the ABC Friends web sites around Australia, which I called The Forces of Evil.

    Those forces he drew breaking into an ABC viewer’s home (and which seek to destroy our public broadcaster) come from many directions.

    From inside the ABC tent (why would the Managing Director have to have foisted on him as a board member looking over his shoulder the person who did the government’s work in identifying “efficiency” dividends i.e. cuts to funds to satisfy the demands of the Abbot Government?), or from some formerly inside the tent (i.e. Chairman Maurice Newman, who now berates the ABC through the welcoming columns of The Australian), and from those who ideologically or for commercial and competitive reasons want to weaken, or achieve death by a thousand cuts, of both the ABC and SBS.

    These forces – and it is not just Mr. Murdoch and his Rottweilers – though he and they lead the anti-public broadcasting pack both here and in the UK and in the United States.….These forces try to persuade the communities they do NOT need public broadcasting – private enterprise and the web and new media will do the job.

    Let me read an excellent OPEN LETTER from the Friends to our new PM.

    “We ask that some of the decisions about ABC matters made at Cabinet over the last year and more be reviewed. They do not sit well with the views expressed by yourself in previous years when you made clear how much you value our National Broadcaster.

    They do not sit well with the Malcolm Turnbull who launched the Parliamentary Friends of the ABC.

    The do not sit well with your previously expressed high praise for the ABC.

    We would ask that the following specific proposals be considered.

    1. Appoint a more balanced Nominations Committee to recommend appointments to the ABC and SBS Boards – recent appointees suggest the Government is preparing for privatization.
    2. Ensure that Managing Director Mark Scott’s replacement, and the appointment process is absolutely apolitical and wholly transparent.
    3. Restore ABC funding to pre-Abbot Government levels and lock in the next triennial funding cycle at least to those levels.
    4. Restore the DFAT/ABC contract to run the Australia Network Television – the ABC’s overseas service.
    5. Take particular steps to restore the ABC’s rural and regional network – we note the importance of this for the National Party, for rural MPs and for our communities.”

    Incidentally the advertisement for Mark Scott’s replacement as CEO of the ABC is now out and incorporates the following:

    “Operating under Government Charter the corporation has a unique role in informing, educating and connecting all Australians.”

    Also – “Will have responsibility for ensuring ABC’s success in augmenting and reinforcing a sense of Australian culture and identity.”

    (It does not refer to international news coverage, perhaps because the loss of its Australia Network early into its 10-year contract has been so devastating)

    The Conservative Party Culture Secretary in Britain stated that the BBC should be “narrower and more focused”.

    News Corp Australian CEO Julian Clarke echoed his boss’s views here with an ‘exclusive’ interview in The Australian in which he asked, “Why should the ABC push into new media spaces?”

    Murdoch loyalist and columnist and ABC hater, Chris Kenny, wrote recently; “The ABC needs to allocate its resources more effectively, in keeping with its charter obligations, to the regions, and with less emphasis on Scott’s passion to expend into every available digital platform”.

    Comment – it is hard to fulfill the charter requirements if the resources given it are inadequate. Further, to opt out of digital and other technologies available to the broadcaster to properly compete will ensure slow and lingering death,

    The conservative newspaper, the UK’s Daily Telegraph, in a recent editorial criticizing the BBC Director General’s speech said that “The simple and better answer, for the BBC to reduce its activities in areas where the private sector can provide, was apparently not even considered by the corporation’s numerous and well paid executives….”

    Both Murdoch’s senior and junior – Rupert and James – in their recent MacTaggart Media lectures in Edinburgh have made their positions very clear about leaving the new media outlets to private enterprise and opining that public broadcasting sticks to its traditional television and radio operations.

    They use weasel words.

    They mean, just leave the new media to us and we can make more money and have greater power – that is their clear agenda. Weakening public broadcasting or even sentencing it to a slow death by not allowing it to compete effectively would make life easier for the competitors.

    At least – though James Murdoch went close – they don’t publicly echo the Institute of Public Affairs position put to the Abbott government that we do not need public broadcasting in Australia.

    THAT the ABC should be privatized.

    So why do Australians need a strong ABC and SBS?

    To quote the excellent Quentin Dempster again:

    “The ABC and SBS contribute to local content production under their respective Charters but always within the constraints of funding allocated by the federal cabinet’s expenditure review committee.

    The most recent down-sizings of the ABC and SBS have seen the loss of programming and mass sacking of content creators as both were forced to reshape their operations. The ABC lost local current affairs specialization in Radio National, live broadcasts on Classic FM and regional TV production. With Foreign Minister Julie Bishop’s unilateral termination of the DFAT Australia Network contract the ABC’s network of in situ correspondents, which had helped to make ABC international coverage so distinctive, were decimated. Radio Australia was reduced to ‘rip and read’.

    To secure the sustainable survival of the ABC and SBS, their raison d’etre needs to be restated. Public broadcasters view their audiences as citizens in a robust democracy and not as consumers to be delivered up to advertisers. Creative independence through a critical mass of program makers with a capacity to commission and make the full genre of programs based on the clash of ideas is vital for the AABC’s continued relevance. Although the digital revolution has enabled the ABC to cost-effectively extend its reach of younger audiences, its other Charter purposes (localism, international coverage, regional production, specialization) are being willfully neglected.

    For SBS the raison d’etre is clear. In an era of geo political tension, drone, jihadi and lone wolf terror, a new polyglot Australia needs a broadcaster committed to build understanding, break down insularity, xenophobia and bigotry. The taxpayer investment in SBS’s multi-lingual radio, GTV and online services should be seen as a counter to both terrorism and ethnic isolation. The prize: a more informed, inclusive and cohesive polity.

    These are the intangible benefits of Australia’s unique mainstream public broadcasting system.” 

    To return to the Friends’ letter to our new PM, the challenges for public broadcasting – for its survival – are out there for all to see.

    So, please continue to support the Friends Nationally in its work to ensure a better, more independent, and more competitive ABC.

    We are not WMD’s (Weapons of Mass Destruction) – as like each of you, we retain the right to criticize as and when needed, BUT as committed Friends and supporters of public broadcasting.

    We are in the process of building membership nationally, of introducing a new category of ABC Supporters (who give but do not wish to be members as such) and we are developing a Fighting Fund to pay for getting the message across that we Must Not let the ABC be weakened or compromised.

    The Forces of Evil will not go away – and the change in PM where the Communications Minister is now PM will be unlikely to see a significant change in policy. Active protest, pressure and debate can achieve remarkable things in a democracy – so please all do what you can as groups and individually.

    We hope for the best and will see what happens to repair the damage, but it is hard to see a reversal by this Government of the Australia Network decision, nor of the cuts, nor of the imbalance of the nomination committee for the board, and we await with concern who Prime Minister Turnbull gets as the new CEO of the ABC.

    Also, despite the soothing words of the new Communications Minister, who in a ”frisky” moment (but in a prepared speech) said there was merit in the idea of privatizing the ABC, the Government will be judged by what he and the former Communications Minister actually do to allow the ABC and SBS to compete and serve Australians to the best of their abilities.

    While the jury ruminates – let us work to all build the strength of ABC Friends by inviting new members and Supporters (a fresh category for those who back us but do not want to join) and by Donating to our National Fighting Fund.

    Sadly, I can confidently predict that we will be drawing on the Fighting fund to protect our national broadcasters. And we need to persuade the Labor Party to really commit to supporting both the ABC and SBS. (Its draft platform encouragingly says it will “increase funding” but we need cast iron guarantees.)

    So, we as Friends seek – Australia needs – your continual backing and active recruitment to the cause.

      This is a speech delivered by Ranald Macdonald to Friends of the ABC on 27 September 2015. Ranald Macdonald was formerly Managing Director of David Syme, the publisher of The Age. 

     

  • Mark Carney and climate change – an historic speech

    The following are extracts from a speech given by Mark Carney, The Governor of the Bank of England at a Lloyd’s of London dinner on 29 September 2015

    He outlines how climate change is a huge financial risk, particularly for investments in unburnable fossil fuel assets. He points out that  the vast majority of these assets could be ‘stranded ‘and that the window of opportunity to address climate change is ‘finite and shrinking’

    The media has described this as a ‘milestone speech’   See link  to full speech and references.

    Extracts follow   John Menadue

    The tragedy on the horizon

    There is a growing international consensus that climate change is unequivocal. 2

    Many of the changes in our world since the 1950s are without precedent: not merely over decades but over millennia.

    Research tells us with a high degree of confidence that:

    • In the Northern Hemisphere the last 30 years have been the warmest since Anglo-Saxon times; indeed, eight of the ten warmest years on record in the UK have occurred since 2002; 3
    • Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are at levels not seen in 800,000 years; and
    • The rate of sea level rise is quicker now than at any time over the last 2 millennia. 4

    Evidence is mounting of man’s role in climate change. Human drivers are judged extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of global warming since the mid-20th century. 5  While natural fluctuations may mask it temporarily, the underlying human-induced warming trend of two-tenths of a degree per decade has continued unabated since the 1970s. 6

    While there is always room for scientific disagreement about climate change (as there is with any scientific issue) I have found that insurers are amongst the most determined advocates for tackling it sooner rather than later.  And little wonder.  While others have been debating the theory, you have been dealing with the reality:

    Since the 1980s the number of registered weather-related loss events has tripled; and inflation-adjusted insurance losses from these events have increased from an annual average of around $10bn in the 1980s to around $50bn over the past decade. 7

    The challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come.  The far-sighted amongst you are anticipating broader global impacts on property, migration and political stability, as well as food and water security.

    We don’t need an army of actuaries to tell us that the catastrophic impacts of climate change will be felt beyond the traditional horizons of most actors – imposing a cost on future generations that the current generation has no direct incentive to fix.

    That means beyond:

    • the business cycle; 9
    • the political cycle; and
    • the horizon of technocratic authorities, like central banks, who are bound by their mandates.

    The horizon for monetary policy extends out to 2-3 years. For financial stability it is a bit longer, but typically only to the outer boundaries of the credit cycle – about a decade. 10

    In other words, once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late.

    This paradox is deeper, as Lord Stern and others have amply demonstrated. As risks are a function of cumulative emissions, earlier action will mean less costly adjustment. 11

    The desirability of restricting climate change to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels 12 leads to the notion of a carbon ‘budget’, an assessment of the amount of emissions the world can ‘afford’.

    Such a budget – like the one produced by the IPCC 13  – highlights the consequences of inaction today for the scale of reaction required tomorrow.

    These actions will be influenced by policy choices that are rightly the responsibility of elected governments, advised by scientific experts.  In ten weeks representatives of 196 countries will gather in Paris at the COP21 summit to consider the world’s response to climate change. It is governments who must choose whether, and how, to pursue that 2 degree world.

    Climate change and financial stability

    There are three broad channels through which climate change can affect financial stability:

    – First, physical risks: the impacts today on insurance liabilities and the value of financial assets that arise from climate- and weather-related events, such as floods and storms that damage property or disrupt trade;

    – Second, liability risks: the impacts that could arise tomorrow if parties who have suffered loss or damage from the effects of climate change seek compensation from those they hold responsible.  Such claims could come decades in the future, but have the potential to hit carbon extractors and emitters – and, if they have liability cover, their insurers – the hardest;

    – Finally, transition risks: the financial risks which could result from the process of adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy.  Changes in policy, technology and physical risks could prompt a reassessment of the value of a large range of assets as costs and opportunities become apparent.

    The speed at which such re-pricing occurs is uncertain and could be decisive for financial stability.  There have already been a few high profile examples of jump-to-distress pricing because of shifts in environmental policy or performance.

    Risks to financial stability will be minimised if the transition begins early and follows a predictable path, thereby helping the market anticipate the transition to a 2 degree world.

    Transition risks

    The UK insurance sector manages almost £2tn in assets to match liabilities that often span decades. While a given physical manifestation of climate change – a flood or storm – may not directly affect a corporate bond’s value, policy action to promote the transition towards a low-carbon economy could spark a fundamental reassessment.

    Take, for example, the IPCC’s estimate of a carbon budget that would likely limit global temperature rises to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

    That budget amounts to between 1/5th and 1/3rd world’s proven reserves of oil, gas and coal. 24

    If that estimate is even approximately correct it would render the vast majority of reserves “stranded” – oil, gas and coal that will be literally unburnable without expensive carbon capture technology, which itself alters fossil fuel economics. 25

    The exposure of UK investors, including insurance companies, to these shifts is potentially huge.

    Conclusion

    Our societies face a series of profound environmental and social challenges.

    The combination of the weight of scientific evidence and the dynamics of the financial system suggest that, in the fullness of time, climate change will threaten financial resilience and longer-term prosperity.

    While there is still time to act, the window of opportunity is finite and shrinking. 31

    Others will need to learn from Lloyd’s example in combining data, technology and expert judgment to measure and manage risks.

    The December meetings in Paris will work towards plans to curb carbon emissions and encourage the funding of new technologies.

    We will need the market to work alongside in order to maximise their impact.

    With better information as a foundation, we can build a virtuous circle of better understanding of tomorrow’s risks, better pricing for investors, better decisions by policymakers, and a smoother transition to a lower-carbon economy.

    By managing what gets measured, we can break the Tragedy of the Horizon.

  • Frank Brennan. Border control gulags have had their time

    What are the chances of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten agreeing by Christmas that it’s time to close the refugee processing centres on Nauru and Manus Island? Turnbull and Shorten already agree that the boats coming from Indonesia should be stopped. The boats are now being stopped, if need be, with turnbacks, which neither side of politics now questions.

    Now that the boats have been stopped and will remain stopped no matter who is in government, there is no reason to maintain the facilities on Nauru and Manus Island. The conditions in these facilities are not only harsh, they are cruel. These facilities no longer serve any useful purpose. They cost a fortune. They are wreaking havoc with the local community as well as with the traumatised detainees. They have outlived their intended purpose. They are gulags which rightly tarnish Australia’s reputation.

    Consider the history. When Julia Gillard failed to have her Malaysia solution implemented, she set up an expert panel chaired by Air Chief Marshall Angus Houston, the respected, recently retired Chief of the Armed Forces. In August 2012, Houston’s panel told the Gillard government that ‘the conditions required for effective, lawful and safe turnbacks of irregular vessels headed for Australia with asylum seekers on board are not currently met in regard to turnbacks to Indonesia’.

    So they looked for other short-term measures. Having studied John Howard’s 2001 Pacific solution, the panel concluded that ‘in the short term, the establishment of processing facilities in Nauru as soon as practical is a necessary circuit breaker to the current surge in irregular migration to Australia’.

    When Kevin Rudd replaced Gillard in June 2013, he set about resurrecting the Pacific Solution immediately but with an added ‘nasty’: anyone found to be a refugee on Nauru or on Manus Island would be resettled anywhere except Australia.

    The situation has changed radically in the last three years. We no longer need a ‘circuit breaker’. Retired Major General Jim Molan has advised government that the conditions for effective, lawful and safe turnbacks are now met. The military have turned back boats. They have stopped the boats coming.i

    Tony Abbott as prime minister was adamant that his government was acting decently when stopping the boats and turning them back. The government is confident that the people smuggling racket in Java has been smashed. The Labor Party national conference has signed off on stopping the boats and agreeing to turnbacks if they be required.

    I concede that there is no way that Turnbull would agree to any substantive change for some months until he can be satisfied that the change of prime minister has not resulted in any renewed effort by people smugglers to regroup in Java.

    And there is no reason to think that Turnbull’s approach would deviate in the least from Abbott’s. He was after all the leader of the Opposition at the time Kevin Rudd was dealing with the Oceanic Viking incident in Indonesia. Everything Turnbull said at that time was taken from John Howard’s song sheet, completely consistent with everything later said by Abbott as prime minister.

    For example, Turnbull told parliament on 20 October 2009:

    It should not ever be controversial to state, as a matter of policy and principle, that Australians have the right to decide who comes to this country, our country, and the manner in which they come. The previous prime minister, Mr Howard, was criticised for saying that, but the fact is that that is what every Australian expects of their government.

    Under the Howard government it took a range of strong measures and years of vigilance to halt people smuggling. The Rudd government, on the other hand, has quite deliberately, and with dangerous naivety, unpicked the fabric of that suite of policies, sending an unmistakeable message to people-smugglers that our borders are open for business.

    In short, Labor has lost control of our borders.

    In May 2014, Turnbull as a minister in the Abbott cabinet did concede that Rudd’s renewed Pacific solution as enacted by Abbott was harsh, indeed very harsh. Though conceding that others thought it cruel, he did not think it so.

    When asked on BBC TV if he was comfortable with Australia’s policy of ‘outsourcing its human rights responsibilities to ill-equipped third countries’, Turnbull replied: ‘I don’t think any of us is entirely comfortable with any policies relating to border protection.’ He was insistent that Australia was acting in compliance with international law.

    He then added: ‘We have harsh measures, some would say they are cruel measures. I would not go so far as to say they are cruel. But let’s not argue about the semantics. The fact is that if you want to stop the people smuggling business you have to be very, very tough.’

    Anyone hoping a Turnbull government will be more accommodating of boat people than an Abbott government will be sadly mistaken.

    But that is not the end of the matter. Now that the Australian government with Opposition concurrence has firmly closed the entry door to Australia, there is no warrant for maintaining the chamber of horrors in the Pacific which was set up as a ‘circuit breaker’ deterrent. Turnbull needs to admit that a purposeless chamber of horrors is not just harsh; it is cruel, and it is unAustralian.

    After a few months transition, it will be time to close the facilities on Nauru and in Papua New Guinea; abandon the Cambodian shipment plan; negotiate a regional agreement for safe returns ensuring compliance with the non-refoulement obligation; and double the refugee and humanitarian component from 13,750 places to 27,000 places in the migration program, as recommended by the 2012 panel.

    The government should encourage further community participation in a refugee resettlement scheme which allows refugee communities and their supporters to increase the number of refugees resettled without taking the places of those refugees who would come anyway without community sponsorship.

    Why not increase the humanitarian program to at least 20,000 places as was espoused by both sides of politics before the 2013 election campaign? And why not provide another 7000 places for community sponsored refugees?

    Novelist Tim Winton has rightly said that there is a need for Australia to turn back, to ‘raise us back up to our best selves’. We, the voters, are sick and tired of the unnecessary meanness and nastiness. We can walk and chew gum at the same time. We can both secure our borders and increase our commitment to orderly resettlement of more refugees.

    We can secure our borders without the Pacific gulags and the oppressive onshore measures denying asylum seekers work rights and adequate welfare assistance. The ethical dividend of closing our borders is being able to treat anyone inside our borders decently and being able to bring asylum seekers in Nauru and Manus Island to Australia for processing and resettlement.

    If the boats could have been stopped back in 2012, there is no way that Houston’s panel would ever have recommended the Nauru/Manus Island gulag. We the voters should now demand the ethical dividend from Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten.


    This is part of Frank Brennan’s address The Ethical Challenge of Stopping the Boats Upstream, Closing the Camps Downstream and Opening Community Services to the Melaleuca Refugee Centre, Darwin, delivered on 29 September 2015.

     

  • Libby Lloyd. Coming to grips with our domestic war

    For many reasons there is currently a much greater interest in the issue of domestic and family violence. This derives from increased media attention, the significant increase in intimate partner homicides (64 so far this year), the vastly improved police and legal response, constant revision and improvement of state and federal laws, as well as the appointment of Rosie Batty as Australian of the year. There has been a recent enquiry in Queensland and there is currently a Royal Commission in Victoria. We’ve had plenty of enquiries. How much more discussion on the topic do we need? We can already be quite confident we know enough about the causes of this violence and we also know what needs to be done. We just need to get on and do it.

    Roughly speaking one in three Australian women report having experienced physical violence from an intimate partner in their lifetime. One in four children has witnessed domestic or family violence and one in five women report sexual assault (frequently within their relationship).

    Violence against women costs the Australian economy $13.6b a year! KPMG was commissioned in 2008 to cost violence against women and their calculations include: pain, suffering and premature mortality; costs for health (treating effects); protection related costs (eg absence from work); consumption related costs (damaged property, moving etc); second generation costs (ongoing costs related to the children); administrative costs (police, incarceration, courts, counselling, violence prevention); and transfer costs (payment of government benefits).

    For many reasons it is a challenge to quantify domestic and family violence and sexual assault – mainly because we can never be certain of the number of non-reports and different jurisdictions record the data differently. But we do know that women are becoming increasingly confident to report and this may explain the increased number of reports – or perhaps the prevalence is increasing – or both.

    The legal definition of domestic violence varies slightly within jurisdictions but by and large covers physical, sexual, emotional and psychological abuse. The term violence covers excessively controlling behaviours, such as stalking, refusing to allow external contacts, friendships or access to family, limiting access to money, denying liberty as well as physical violence. And we also know that women and children are overwhelmingly the victims of domestic violence, and men are overwhelmingly the perpetrators of violence. We must also take account of the facts that men can be more physically violent and generally they are physically stronger.

    Many factors contribute to domestic and family violence and sexual assault such as the abuse of alcohol, use of drugs, mental health issues, pregnancy and separation may all increase the risk of domestic violence. Financial stress, personal stress and lack of social support are also strong correlates of violence against women. We are yet to fully understand whether these factors are primarily causes or consequences of violence against women.

    Many women in abusive relationships return to the perpetrator of the violence and try to reconcile, they just want the violence to stop. It is a major step for many women to extricate themselves from violent relationships – their children are linked to their local schools and community, there are emotional, financial and other inter-dependencies.

     

    Australia has increasingly developed better responses to domestic violence much of it built on the work and advocacy of feminists in the 1970s. The first women’s refuge in Australia (Elsie) opened in NSW in 1974 with funding support from the Whitlam government in 1975. Successive governments have built on this response with increasingly effective preventive programs, support for victims/survivors and their families and law enforcement. Each jurisdiction in Australia has in place a variety of laws, programs and policies responding to, and attempting to prevent domestic violence.  Each jurisdiction funds its own programs and systems, and there are also some Australian Government funded programs operating in the states and territories, particularly supported accommodation and safe houses.

    What is new and is a really important initiative is the 12 year National Plan to Reduce Violence against Women and their Children (2010-2022). The National Plan demonstrates that violence against women is a complex issue and needs a wide range of targeted and properly funded responses.

    There has been a National Plan to Reduce Violence against Women and their Children (2010-2022) in place already for 5 years. This Plan is based on the 2009 report ‘Time for Action’ presented by the National Council to Reduce Violence against Women and their Children which was established by Prime Minister Rudd in 2008. The National Action Plan clearly outlines a very broad range of actions that need to be undertaken. All States and territories have signed on to the Commonwealth’s National Action Plan and each has developed its own Action Plan that joins up with the Commonwealth’s Plan. This is landmark moment as now all States and Territories and the Commonwealth are working together in a coordinated long-term effort to address violence against women. Now we can keep building and improving on the initiatives that prove successful.

    It is a long-term Plan (4 sub-plans each of 3 years) each building on the previous plan(s). It is bi-partisan and was agreed by COAG in 2009 by the Prime-Minister and all First Ministers and it has continued strong support despite changes of governments. It has a strong focus on prevention. For the first time sexual assault is joined up with domestic and family violence. It aligns and joins up with other initiatives among which are: the National Framework for Protecting Australia’s Children (2009-2020); the National Partnership Agreement on Homelessness; the National Partnership Agreement on Remote Indigenous Housing; the National Disability Strategy and more.

    What is different about this Plan is that it contemplates and identifies a wide range of interventions that need to be addressed

    1. Communities are safe
    2. Relationships are respectful
    3. indigenous communities are strengthened
    4. Services meet the needs
    5. Justice responses are effective
    6. Perpetrators stop their violence and are held to account

    The National Council also featured a major outcome to be ‘systems must work effectively together’. This remains one of the greatest challenges and one that is constantly mentioned.

    The Rudd Government response In 2009 was to immediately allocate funding to a number of Council recommended initiatives: establish a national helpline (1800 RESPECT); establish ‘Respectful Relationships’ programs in schools; set up ‘The Line’ social marketing campaign targeted at young people and parents; fund research into perpetrator treatment; establish an Australian National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS); allocate Community Action Grants; fund a new National Community Attitudes Survey and continue funding the Personal Safety Survey; provide additional support for front-line workers and services and establish a national AVO register. Additionally the Foundation for Prevention of Violence against Women and their Children has been established (Our WATCh) by the Commonwealth and the Victorian, NT and South Australian governments. Its role is to drive nation-wide change in the culture, behaviours and attitudes that lead to violence against women and children.

    The Abbott/Turnbull governments have continued with strong support for the National Plan and are working closely with all states and territories. The Turnbull government this week announced $100m additional funding for innovative technology including phones to keep women safe: increased support for the Safe at Home program where the perpetrator moves out and the victim and her children stay in the family home; increased funding for the national helpline 1800 RESPECT; increased support for police in indigenous communities; improved support and services for women including increased training for frontline staff and trials of integrated service models. They also provided funding for longer-term measure to change the attitudes of young people to violence. It is exciting that the national curriculum will now include Respectful Relationships education for all children.

    Work to establish the most effective responses to change men’s violent behaviour is well underway. Services are gaining a stronger voice and strong efforts are underway to join up services (wrap around services). Courts are constantly improving their responses. The media is becoming more interested to work to assist a solution. Schools are becoming more active and more engaged. Civil society is becoming involved and taking a role and responsibility to find solutions. Our responses and responsibilities to violence against women are increasingly widening.

    Until recently violence against women has been considered a ‘women’s issue. Excitingly this recent announcement by Prime Minister Turnbull was signed off by the Ministers for Women and Minister for Employment, the Attorney General, the Minister for Health, the Minister for Social Services, the Minister for Indigenous Affairs, the Minister for Communications and the Minister for Education. This is a remarkable shift to recognise that all these ministries (and more) have a major part to play in combating and preventing violence against women.

    Now an increasingly wider response and significant support is being given to the issue of prevention of violence (and sexual assault) by sporting organisations (AFL and NRL as leading examples), faith-based organisations and by community based men-led organisations such as the White Ribbon Foundation. Schools and business, the private sector and the broad community understand that we all must play a part in stopping this violence. Violence against women is everyone’s issue; it is no longer ‘a private matter’ nor ‘just a domestic’. It can not be just a headline of horror in a newspaper, or 2 extreme minutes on the TV news.

    We must all come to understand that this is a complex issue that can not be solved quickly or easily. We know that we have made a good start in tackling it, but it will be a long slow road. We must raise our children to understand the importance of their relationships – they must be respectful – boys to girls, girls to boys and all to each other. We must parent our children carefully and responsibly. We must call out violence when we see it. We need to respond to violence as individuals as a family and as a community. It can’t be solved just by governments – we all have a part to play. It will take great effort but most of all it will take all of us to play a part to resolve it.

     

    Libby Lloyd AM was chair of the National Council to Reduce Violence against Women and their Children, Chair of the Violence against Women Advisory Group and a co-founder of the White Ribbon Foundation.

  • John Menadue. The government just does not get it on Free Trade Agreements.

    I hope readers are not getting tired that I have said many times that the government continues to exaggerate the benefits of bilateral FTAs, most recently with Japan, Korea and China. With so little to show after two wasted years – increased debt, increased deficits, and not ‘stopping the boats’ despite telling us of success a thousand times – it is perhaps inevitable that the government will cling to small improvements in trade. But the gains are small. In the AFR on 30 September 2015, Bill Carmichael, former chairman of the Australian Industries Assistance Commission, said

    We will undoubtedly gain valuable export opportunities from the Free Trade Agreement with China. But we could have achieved a great deal more, if when preparing Australia’s market opening offers, our negotiators had recognised the obligation to reduce our trade barriers as an opportunity to improve productivity. … The opportunity to life productivity was missed by the Abbott government in negotiating all three FTAs concluded last year. … The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade … has resisted any change in its flawed approach to trade negotiations. … In defending secrecy, Trade Minister Andrew Robb maintains that public involvement would compromise his negotiating position. As has been explained in the AFR, there is no conflict between his need for secret negotiations and a Productivity Commission process, introducing public input to our negotiating agenda. DFAT’s flawed approach to trade policy cannot be pushed aside as having marginal consequences.

    See link to full article below.  John Menadue

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/alan-mitchell/how-malcolm-turnbull-can-use-free-trade-agreements-to-boost-productivity-20150929-gjx1to

  • Why the Rich are so much Richer in the US

    Nobel Prizewinner Joseph E. Stiglitz has been at the forefront of the debate in the US and elsewhere about growing inequality. In a recent review in the New York Review of Books, James Surowiecki comments on three recent books by Stiglitz. He says:

    “The numbers are, at this point, woefully familiar: the top 1% of earners take home more than 20% of the income and their share has more than doubled in the last 35 years. The gains for people in the top 0.1%, meanwhile, have been even greater. Yet over that same period, average wages and household incomes in the US have risen only slightly, and a number of demographic groups (like men with only a high school education) have actually seen their average wages decline.”

    See link to article below.       John Menadue

    http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/sep/24/stiglitz-why-rich-are-so-much-richer/?utm_medium=email

  • Ian McAuley. Economic Management, Lobbyists and the Coalition Government.

    On Abbott’s political departure David Marr wrote in The Guardian “Within days of his fall he’s looking like a prime minister Australia once had a long time ago”.

    Most people and organisations who have given him unwavering support ever since his narrow win as Opposition Leader in 2009 were remarkably quick in endorsing Turnbull’s judgement that he “has not been capable of providing the economic leadership our nation needs”.

    Of course many independent economists had been saying that and more about Abbott’s economic management – it was indeed disastrous. But the surprising phenomenon was the sudden turnaround by those who had been loyal right up to the end.

    This sudden switch was most noticeable among spokespeople for so-called “business” lobbies (as if “business” is some homogenous collection of like-minded people with identical interests), but it was also noticeable on the street. In the Essential opinion polling in early September voters gave the Abbott government strong marks on economic management, but journalists’ roving microphones in the days after the transition found few, if any, people willing to say anything positive about his economic management. As Bob Dylan said of people who so readily switch their loyalty “You just want to be on the side that’s winnin”.

    In one of those twists of politics it was only the Murdoch tabloids that maintained some level of integrity in not switching loyalty. Otherwise there was a media scramble to revisionism.

    It was reminiscent, in a scaled-down way, of Stalin’s denouncements. Once Bukharin, Rykov and others had been led away after their show trials, it was almost forbidden to utter their names. “Comrade who?” was the polite warning to anyone who made the slip of mentioning those who had been purged.

    Of course Turnbull is no Stalin, indeed in his liberalism he couldn’t be further away politically. But the process takes place almost automatically, best described in Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four, which recounts the story of the hapless Winston Smith, whose job is to re-write newspaper accounts that don’t fit with the contemporary political mood. These days his task would be to sanitize web pages. “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia”, “We’ve always said Abbott was a poor leader”.

    The “right” tried to own Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four as a comment on Stalin’s dictatorship, but its message was directed much closer to home. He wrote it in 1948 when Britain was involved in all manner of rapidly-shifting postwar alliances. (It is in Animal Farm where he deals explicitly with the Soviet dictatorship.)

    Having worked behind the scenes as a public servant and an academic, I can recall many instances when executives in business lobbies have been privately critical of Coalition governments, while publicly giving them their fullest support. So I was not particularly surprised by the sudden turnaround in sentiment last week.

    But I would like it if our lobby groups could break from that puerile and hypocritical practice of giving uncritical public support to Coalition governments, and, to quote from the Prime Minister “respect the intelligence of the Australian people”.

     

  • John Menadue. Murdoch is losing his touch.

    Two weeks before the fall of Tony Abbott, Rupert Murdoch tweeted “Abbott, far the best alternative”. The Liberal Party ignored his tweet and chose Malcolm Turnbull.

    Rupert Murdoch’s declining influence is becoming plain to see.

    At the last SA state election, the Adelaide Advertiser backed the Liberal Party. The Liberal Party lost.

    At the last Victorian state election, the Herald Sun backed the Liberal Party and the Liberals lost.

    In Queensland, the Courier Mail backed the Liberal-National Party at the last election and there was a record swing which tipped the LNP out of office.

    At the last Federal election in 2013, the biggest two-party swings to the Coalition were in Victoria (+5.1%) and Tasmania (+9.4%). In both states the Murdoch role was relatively moderate. There were lesser swings to the Coalition in NSW (+3.9%) and Queensland (+1.8%) where the Murdoch papers, The Daily Telegraph and the Courier Mail were the most vociferous.

    None of this is surprising. In June this year Essential Research reported that the News Ltd metropolitan newspapers are the least trusted in Australia. Trust in the major metropolitan newspapers was as follows.

    SMH                            70%
    The Age                      66%
    The Australian           54%
    Herald Sun                 48%
    Courier Mail               48%
    Daily Telegraph         46%

    The most trusted media organisation in the country is the ABC.

    The two big issues for Australia in the last decade have been the Iraq War and climate change. Rupert Murdoch and his loyal editors have been on the wrong side of history on both issues.

    Tweets by Rupert Mudoch and slavish support by his editors is proving counter-productive.

    Rupert Murdoch’s political influence has always been exaggerated. It was claimed that he had the happy knack of always choosing winners. He is now showing a great capacity to back political losers like Tony Abbott.

  • Why fighters are quitting ISIS.

    The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence at Kings College London points to the ways that many thousands of recruits who journeyed to Iraq and Syria may now be regretting their decisions. The more defectors speak out, the more the ISIS cause will suffer. The ICSR Report Executive Summary follows.  John Menadue.

    Executive Summary

    • Defectors from the so-called Islamic State (IS) are a new and growing phenomenon. Since January 2014, at least 58 individuals have left the group and publicly spoken about their defection. They represent a small fraction of the many disillusioned fighters who have turned against IS.

    • The defectors provide unique insight into life in the Islamic State. But their stories can also be used as a potentially powerful tool in the fight against it. The defectors’ very existence shatters the image of unity and determination that IS seeks to convey. Their narratives highlight the group’s contradictions and hypocrisies. Their example encourages members to leave the group. And their experience and credibility can help deter others from joining.

    • The defectors’ reasons for leaving may be as complex as the reasons they joined. Not everyone has become a fervent supporter of liberal democracy. Some may have committed crimes. They joined the most violent and totalitarian organization of our age, yet they are now its worst enemies.

    • Among the stories of the 58 defectors, we identified four key narratives:
    1) ‘IS is more interested in fighting fellow (Sunni) Muslims than the Assad government
    2) ‘IS is involved in brutality and atrocities against (Sunni) Muslims.’
    3) ‘IS is corrupt and un-Islamic.’ 4) ‘Life under IS is harsh and disappointing.’

    • Defecting from IS is complex and dangerous. Wannabe defectors are faced with numerous obstacles. Their first challenge is to separate from IS and make their way into non-IS held territory. But even those who succeed are not necessarily safe. What prevents them from speaking out is the fear of reprisals and the worry that prosecutors may use their openness against them.

    • Our recommendations are for governments and activists to recognize the value and credibility of defector narratives; provide defectors with opportunities to speak out; assist them in resettlement and ensure their safety; and remove legal disincentives that prevent them from going public.

  • Climate Change and Refugees.

    We have had a wake-up call about how Western and particularly US policies have destabilised the Middle East with the resulting exodus of refugees. Half of the Syrian population has either fled or been displaced within their own country.

    Climate change in the Middle East is adding to the problem. This is examined in a report by Jaime de Melo for the Brookings Institute on August 24, 2015. He comments:

    The disintegration of states resulting from political, ethnic and religious conflicts are the proximate causes of this migration surge (from the Middle East), but evidence from the new climate-economy literature suggests that weather has also played a role and will certainly play a growing role as our planet warms. … While the ongoing Syrian civil war has many contributing factors … the exceptionally long five-year drought linked to rising mean temperatures in the Middle East has contributed to civil unrest. … Had the misguided agricultural policies been avoided, the supply of ground water would have provided a cushion during this exceptionally long drought and, according to accumulating evidence of the new climate-economy literature, social tensions would have been less. … Dealing with increasing migratory pressures from economic factors and rising temperatures will require countries to delegate national sovereignty and accommodate far greater migration flows than in recent history or face widespread conflicts.

    See link below.        John Menadue

    http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/planetpolicy/posts/2015/08/24-climate-change-migration-challenges-de-melo?utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=21546201&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-86GsrZ85KCP18SnH76p0QsbRPDAQ5bQPK3r1FlgIRf90ooVMG-4ZJGIR0Z3LuV9ZcVYHZU2521rlC90eQ3r-DpDUKULg&_hsmi=21546201

  • David Charles. Innovation, Disruption, Growth and Jobs of the Future

    What a difference a day makes to so many things including innovation. Immediately prior to the replacement of Tony Abbott by Malcolm Turnbull the Commonwealth Government barely had innovation, to say nothing of digital disruption and start ups, on its radar. Its major achievements in the area of funding for innovation were mostly notable for cutting and rebranding existing programs.

    To be sure they had responded to worthy ideas from the Business Council of Australia to identify and support five industry growth centres but the level of support – $188.5 million over 4 years – is modest and expectations about their impact, outside government, is limited.

    The Labor Party had gradually been building up a series of initiatives aimed at strengthening Australia’s innovation capacity but these were gaining very limited traction in the broader economic debate.

    In one giant bound the new Prime Minister has put innovation, start ups and the great opportunities for both growth and jobs offered by technology disruption and the digital revolution in particular centre stage.

    He has matched his rhetoric by placing Christopher Pyne in the Ministry of Industry, Innovation and Science and making Wyatt Roy, who was not even born when the internet was let loose, Associate Minister for Innovation.

    The amazing thing about the change in the priority of innovation is not that it has happened at all but that it has happened so relatively late compared to other developed and emerging economies. We had better hope that there are advantages in being a fast-ish follower.

    There is rather a lot to digest in the brave new world that has been opened up. My purpose is to attempt to throw some light on the now fashionable term of disruption, whether digital, technological or innovative and the most important disruptive technologies. To briefly review what earlier adopters, including China, have been doing and to point to areas where Australia might focus in a bipartisan way.

    Disruptive Technology/Innovation

    The literature on innovation tends to identify three different kinds of innovation, all of which have somewhat different implications for competition, creative destruction and supporting policy instruments.

    The first two kinds which have until relatively recent times dominated discussion of innovation tend to be those which do not radically alter existing markets and value networks. The simplest kind might be considered to be evolutionary/continuous innovation which improves existing products and markets in broadly expected ways. They add value to customers and companies but don’t alter the nature of things.

    The next step up the innovation food chain is radical/discontinuous innovation which tends to come in unexpected ways and have a large impact on the value proposition for customers and companies. The introduction of the first automobiles can be seen as an example of such innovation, but initially the impact of the new technology was not large and far reaching.

    The third step in innovation is disruptive innovation, popularized by the management writer Clayton M Christensen, which creates a new market and value networks by replacing an existing market and value networks. The mass production system associated with Henry Ford is a powerful example. While new technology was involved in mass production as opposed to craft production, the radical change was the new business model introduced by Ford and the thoroughgoing change it made to transportation.

    An example of disruptive innovation which is in the news at the moment is that associated with the name of Uber. If the Uber model is allowed by regulators to proceed, it will radically alter the on demand transport market and force wide ranging and painful change in the traditional taxi business.

    Disruptive innovation will change both markets and value networks. For a country which is only a marginal player in some important manufacturing and services markets, it offers the opportunity to carve out serious positions in newly emerging value networks and create the jobs of the future. Perhaps it is this characteristic which has captured the imagination of policy makers.

    Where is technology disruption taking place?

    Three directors of the McKinsey Global Institute have recently published an important book on this subject with the title “No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All The Trends “ by Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathon Woetzel. The four disruptive forces are:

    The age of urbanization.

    Accelerating technological change.

    Responding to the challenges of an ageing world.

    Greater global connections.

    The 12 disruptive technologies they identify which will drive acceleration technological change are:

    Changing the building blocks of everything (Next generation genomics and Advanced materials;

    Rethinking of energy comes of age (Energy storage, Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery and Renewable energy);

    Machines working for us (Advanced robotics, Autonomous and near-autonomous vehicles and 3-D printing); and

    IT and how we use it (Mobile internet, Internet of things, Cloud technology and Automation of knowledge work).

    All these areas are likely to be important and offer opportunities for agile and capable Australian companies. At various times these technology disrupters have all received some attention in the media.

    But the reality is that in the field of start-ups a lot of the attention has been given to IT and how we use it. Seek is an often quoted example of Australian success and Uber is pointed to as a harbinger of the sharing economy. There is no doubt that IT in its various forms is important but it is not the only game in town and in developing policy responses to build Australia’s innovation system it is important a broad view is taken rather than putting all our eggs in one basket.

    Britain in its 8 great technologies program announced a couple of years ago has committed 600 million pounds to big data, space, robotics and autonomous systems, synthetic biology, regenerative medicine, agri-science , advanced materials and energy.

    The China Challenge

    China has already been a major source of disruption in global markets with its command of manufacturing production in a range of industries. Optimists in the west see the Chinese challenge stopping at the stage of labour intensive products and me-too products. However, the emergence of companies such as Haier in white goods, Geely Motors in automotive, Huawei in telecommunications and Hengan International in consumer products strongly suggest a different and more challenging reality. These companies are disrupting global markets and building new value networks.

    The Chinese government realizes that the future for China lies in innovation and in 2006 launched a 15 year plan to raise the share of R&D in GDP to 2.5 per cent.

    Reflecting the importance of STEM skills Edward Tse in his recent book China’s Disruptors makes the point that of 200,000 doctorates awarded around the world in science and engineering in 2010 China was second in the world with 31,000 compared to 33,000 in the USA.

    In IT and e-commerce a number of Chinese companies have already come on to the global radar and have the potential to rival the big name US companies. Companies like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and Xiaomi are ultra entrepreneurial, large and growing quickly. They all have global aspirations and in time will look like and act like US and European multinationals with their own global value networks. Some of these companies are already significant investors in start-ups offshore in places like Israel and have R&D centres offshore.

    The next Chinese challenge is well and truly on the radar of governments and industry in the US, Asia and Europe. Innovation policies are being developed partly with an eye to the challenge.

    What are other countries doing to support innovation?

    Most developed countries have innovation policies of one kind or another but two small countries which have received a good deal of attention are Israel and Singapore.

    Israel which spends 4.5 per cent of its GDP on R&D has through its Office of the Chief Scientist pursued a range of policies aimed at boosting innovation. Special emphasis has been placed on creating a very positive environment for start ups. Notable in this regard is the Israeli Incubator Program which supports 20 incubators throughout Israel. Special early stage funding has been provided to support the development and growth of start ups. This can involve the provision of $7 for every $1 invested by private sector entities.

    In 2014 start up exists are estimated to have been valued at $15 billion. While a lot of venture capital has come from US sources, in recent years Chinese investors have become important.

    Singapore through its National Framework for Research, Innovation and Enterprise has learnt from the Israeli approach and amongst other things has put in place a Technology Incubation Scheme. Under this scheme the government co-invests up to 85 per cent of the costs of a start up.

    Special attention is being given to the digital economy. The Infocomm Development Authority which has a mission to support the development of the IT and telecommunications sector provides Sing$ 200 million to support start ups. They plan to support 500 start ups over the next five years.

    Apart from funding start ups, both Israel and Singapore are also focusing on building up their talent pools to support the digital economy.

    The Conservative Government in the UK and its immediate coalition predecessor have placed a high priority on policies to support innovation. A key agency is the Technology Strategy Board, now renamed Innovate UK, which has a portfolio of programs including Smart Grants, Catapult Centres and the Small Business Research Institute. The Catapult Centres launched in 2013 are designed to convert good ideas into commercial results. So far 9 have been established.

    The UK Treasurer in his 2015 Budget Speech argued that one of the aims of the British Government was to improve economic growth by making Britain:

    “The best place in the world to start, invest in and grow a business, including through a package of measures t help unlock the potential of the sharing economy.”

    As noted earlier, the UK government has identified 8 great technologies. These go well beyond the digital economy.

    Some pointers for Australia

    We now have a great opportunity to develop an effective and hopefully bipartisan innovation policy worthy of the name in comparison to what other developed countries are doing and Australia’s special needs and potential.

    We are not starting from ground zero. Some of the key elements of such a policy are in place:

    The importance of STEM skills has been recognized notably by the Chief Scientist and action aimed at building the talent pool has started. The Opposition has promised a series of STEM initiatives.

    Five industry innovation growth centres are being established and some funding has been provided albeit modest in comparison with the UK Catapult program which seems to have been the model for the centres.

    The CRC Program following the Miles Review is being continued.

    But a strong case can be made that given the challenge and the size of the opportunities available that a much more strategic and rather better funded set of integrated instruments are urgently needed.

    As we have seen, Israel, Singapore and the UK innovation policies are seen as playing a very significant role in future growth, business development and jobs. These policies all place a heavy emphasis on building the STEM talent pool. As well, they devote very substantial resources to the incubation of start ups and the financing of early stage businesses. Australia by comparison has hardly begun to move the needle. The Opposition’s promised $500 million Smart Investment Fund to co-invest in early stage companies is one way forward.

    Innovation and the incentives to create and build businesses ought to be essential elements of tax reform. Perhaps using the UK aim of being the best place in the world to start, invest in and grow a business as a starting point for Australia.

    In terms of scope, while the opportunities associated with digital disruption are no doubt large and perceived to be so in other jurisdictions putting great weight on innovation, innovation policy should not ignore the also large opportunities that will come from the technological disruptions identified by the McKinsey study noted earlier.

    A global perspective is needed to fit Australian companies into emerging global value networks. Given our location in Asia Pacific the opportunities offered by building connections to the leading Chinese IT and manufacturing companies are likely to be considerable. The Australia China Free Trade Agreement ought to be part of creating the right environment for these connections to be built.

    Finally, a community effort is required involving not just the Commonwealth and State Governments but also business, universities and the research entities such as the CSIRO and the medical research institutes. The conversation about innovation has just received a major injection of energy, the will is now needed to take advantage of this in a comprehensive, bipartisan and durable way.

    David Charles was the Chair of the Advanced Manufacturing CRC and will be a Director of the recently-announced Innovative Manufacturing CRC. He is a Director of Insight Economics Pty Ltd. From 1985-1990 he was Secretary of the Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce. He was a Founding Director of the Allen Consulting Group.

    See link below to an article by David Charles in the Policy Series which was published on 25 June 2015.

    https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/blog/?p=4143

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Refugee Diary.

    It is one thing to endure the terror of barrel-bombing by the Assad regime and the barbarism of ISIS in Syria. But this is only the beginning of a harrowing trek by Syrians in their journey to safety and freedom in Germany and elsewhere. Verica Jokic, an ABC  journalist gave a compelling account on Radio National on Thursday 24 September 2015,  of the trek from Syria to safety. Her eye for the small detail brings home the plight of asylum seekers much more effectively than all the statistics. John Menadue.

    See her story on the link below:

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/on-the-ground-following-syrian-refugee-crisis/6798898