The priestly pundit caste in the media is well into their election coverage rituals while the political parties are busy adjusting their strategies to tailor their offerings to these ritual needs.
For a start, the pundits have already looked intensely at the runes on when the election will be held, although the little matter of a cyclone has had unexpected impacts on that.
While waiting for illumination on that unexpected natural intervention, they have returned to casting the bones in a bid to interpret the significance of shifts in poll results which are within the standard margins of error and when — and how many — debates will be held involving the two leaders. They are also preparing arcane questions on issues, hoping for clangers and ‘gotcha’ moments.
The pollies are preparing campaign programs featuring “announceables”, families, picture opportunities, ads, slogans and attacks on the other side.
Most importantly the campaigns will revolve around two leaders who are both deeply unpopular and far from charismatic. One of them (you can guess who) stumbles his way through interviews and has demonstrated neither vision nor charisma. The other (you can guess who) has a history of going missing when things get tough.
But sadly — and disconcertingly for both the pundits and political parties — things are going wrong with the standard rituals. Thing even get worse and — heaven forbid — less predictable.
What is desperately needed — for the political parties and Australia — are new approaches.
It’s a bit hard to imagine what that might mean for Peter Dutton beyond possibly producing some costed promises and seeking to unite, rather than divide, the nation. But for Anthony Albanese the choice is simple – step back and let some of the very talented Labor cabinet members play a much bigger role in the campaign.
Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong is one of Australia’s most popular politicians. She has performed brilliantly as a minister in turbulent times and has that crucial quality: the ability to cut through on issues. Tanya Plibersek might be given a bit part too, for a change.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen is ideal for highlighting the giant chasm between the Labor and LNP policies on climate and energy. Admittedly — like much about Labor — there is not much courage in his portfolio promises, but they are least based on a realistic appraisal of the climate threat and face an opponent with unrealistic policies in the areas — other than shutting down renewables and promoting a pipe dream about nuclear energy.
Education Minister Jason Clare has at least stood up strongly for universities in the face of anti-intellectual attacks from conservatives obsessed with wokeness and ignorant of how R&D benefits the nation and its productivity, let alone the manifold benefits of intellectual curiosity. Of course, he could do something about the massive bureaucratic loads on universities and the over-generous funding of private schools.
Health Minister Mark Butler holds a position with both massive problems and massive opportunities. The problems are simply that there are always new demands, new funding needs and new health issues which need to be addressed. On the other hand, the other side has a notorious reputation for cutting back on health and health funding. Dutton is generally regarded as the worst health minister in modern times and, as no one can name the current shadow minister, can be blamed for all the threats to our health system.
Immigration Minister Tony Burke is in a similar situation to Butler – big problems and big opportunities. The obvious problem is that immigration is the third rail of Australian politics. The obvious opportunities are in re-assuring communities about the importance of multiculturalism, working with Muslim communities to give them a sense of safety and reaching out to the still significant Jewish progressive communities.
The government has another overwhelming advantage. It has many more women in Parliament and cabinet than the LNP has or ever will have. Dutton has always been on the nose with women voters who don’t like his aggressive approach. That needs to be ruthlessly exploited.
Instead of Albanese being the centrepiece of the campaign, thereby risking more stuff-ups, let other ministers be upfront about policy announcements and events. Be even braver and use an assistant minister, such as Andrew Leigh, in more prominent campaign roles. He is not your traditional stump style orator but brings great intellectual heft. Ony a truly incompetent campaign staff could not find audiences which would be won over by the intellectual depth he brings to his portfolios. He would be ideal for linking up with other pollies to go jogging and give an image of a fit and healthy party.
Of course, it is equally important to produce a series of devastating negative campaigns. From climate change to nuclear power, to female parliamentary representation, to healthcare and multiculturalism, Dutton is a large walking target for negative campaigns.
Labor has been pathetically fearful of being criticised for, or being seen as, too radical. Instead, it has been seen as timid and its leader as weak. That’s why some alternative voices are necessary.
The media wouldn’t like this because it is outside their general frame of reference for elections. But it couldn’t be worse than an entire campaign constructed around Albanese. Moreover, it could challenge the media to think about how they report on elections and bypass them with a major online campaign about everything but Albanese.
The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Pearls and Irritations.
Noel Turnbull has had a 50-year-plus career in public relations, politics, journalism and academia. He blogs at http://noelturnbull.com/blog/