That China may want to invade Australia is a silly idea promoted by certain people in Australian media. For example, in early 2023, Sky News Australia published an hour-long documentary claiming China’s “aggression” could start a new world war. This may be linked to the huge $1.5 billion fund set aside by US Congress to project China in a bad light, the sum including $500 Million for media outlets to produce journalism critical of China. Nevertheless, as shown in a Lowy Institute Poll in 2024, its influence is clear; two-thirds of Australians think China will become a ‘military threat’ in the next 20 years.
The following are some obvious and evidence-based reasons why the idea is just simply anti-China propaganda and China’s invasion of Australia is most unlikely:
- That Australia is at little risk of a land invasion is confirmed by former Defence Chief, Angus Houston, in Australia’s Defence Strategic Review in early 2023. Indeed, it is more likely Australia may join the US in invading China, as indirectly confirmed by Australia trying to acquire long range military missiles to attack China.
- China has certainly built up a strong military, one that can now match the US military. But, as is well-known, it is designed mainly for China’s self-defence and survival, particularly from a potential invasion by the hegemonic US. As put by John Mearsheimer of Chicago University, Professor of International Relations, the Chinese have learned from the past 150 years of humiliation by Western powers that they must have a strong military to protect themselves from history being repeated.
- China has also learned from history not to fight faraway wars. In the words of Professor Kishore Mahbubani, formerly Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN for 10 years, “Two thousand years of Chinese history have created a strategic culture that advises [China] against fighting unnecessary wars in distant places. The likelihood therefore is that, while China’s strategic weight and influence in the world will grow significantly, it will not behave as an aggressive and belligerent military power.”
- One potential basis for the belief in an invasion of Australia is the idea that China is hungry for Australia’s natural resources. This would be so only if China is put on the same level as the hegemonic US and the rest of the Western world that robbed the natural resources of other countries. It simply totally ignores China’s 6,000-year-old history showing China is in no way like the hegemonic West.
- China has a Confucian foreign policy. It prefers to avoid a military option whenever possible. The essence of advice by China’s master strategist, Sun Tzu, is that, “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” This was acknowledged in a back-handed way by former US National Security Advisor and political strategist, Henry Kissinger. As he pointed out, Chinese strategic thinkers seek to avoid direct conflict and place a premium on victory through psychological advantage. For example, instead of adversarial contests, China seeks to get all disputing parties in South China Sea islands to the negotiation table to try to find win-win solutions.
- As may be seen in its recent history, China’s foreign policy of non-aggression has remained unchanged. China has not even fired a shot over its borders for more than 30 years. Besides, China is not exporting its authoritarian government. And that’s for a pragmatic reason; unlike US elites who believe the world would be a better place if everybody else embraces American values, China believes only Chinese people can truly reflect Chinese values.
- Professor Kishore Mahbubani in his book, “Has China Won”, showed that despite many wars being fought by China over the past two thousand years, China is not expansionist. Any militaristic streak in China’s lengthy civilization would have shown up long ago. This is particularly when China’s Admiral, Zheng He, travelled far and wide with his fleet of ships, many up to 400 ft long, 50 m wide and several stories high and about four times bigger than Christopher Columbus’s “Santa Maria” (85-90 ft long). He could have but didn’t colonise any of the places his fleet visited.
- Confucianism recognises the people have the right to overthrow any evil ruler. Mencius, and scholars like Xunzi, confirmed that an incompetent ruler should be replaced. China’s paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, re-affirmed this in his 1974 speech at the UN General Assembly. This principle within China mitigates against rulers coming to power with invasive intentions.
- China’s highly successful Belt-and-Road Initiatives have also shown that, rather than launching destructive wars, China has a highly successful formula in expanding its global status through win-win trade deals. China is very aware that crude exploitations of the Western world devastate the economies of many poor nations.
- As must be obvious to most Australians, Australia is too far away for any successful invasion by China. This is especially with China’s planes having to go around Indonesia’s airspace.
If those ten reasons are not enough to convince us, we can rest assured that even the many saltwater crocodiles in North Australia would be enough to eat all Chinese soldiers stepping on its shores, bearing in mind the Mary River crocodile can swim at 28 kms per hour and launch at six-seven meters in about a second.
Gim Teh
Gim Teh is a retired Australian law academic and a former member of the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal. He has an interest in misinformation and imperialism and has written about US-Australia-China relationship.