The destruction over the past five years of Australia’s mutually beneficial diplomatic and trade relationship with China was probably a successful ’Five Eyes’ information warfare operation, facilitated by the Australian political class’s own foolish arrogance and ignorance towards China. Australia is now back in the laager, an American strategic satellite and odd man out in the Asia-Pacific region and with a weakened economy.
The address to Federal Parliament by Chinese President Xi Jinping on 17 November 2014 marked a highwater mark in bilateral relations. Xi was in Australia for the G20 summit in Brisbane hosted by PM Tony Abbott. His theme was that China was committed to peace but ready to protect its interests.
Since then the relationship has gone downhill – first slowly and haltingly, but over the past two years with sickening acceleration. Now the relationship seems irretrievable. For educated Chinese, Australia is now an object lesson in Western arrogance, hypocrisy and betrayal of friendship. The dinner party has ended in upended chairs, shouts and bitter accusations as both sides angrily walk away.
After the high symbolism of the Xi speech, all seemed well. In 2015 the Darwin Port was leased to a Chinese company for 99 years. Growing numbers of Chinese students and tourist visitors to Australia were becoming mainstays of Australia’s thriving higher education, tourism and property sectors. China as an Australian export market grew steadily in significance: last year it represented nearly 50% of Australian commodity export earnings. Victoria in 2018 signed a memorandum of understanding with China to work with China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
From the beginning, there were signs that powerful forces were determined to cripple Australian-Chinese engagement: and they have now seemingly won. The present breakdown is tragic for Australian economic and political interests. Many innocent Australians’ livelihoods are being harmed by our own government’s and political class’s stupidity. It is hard to see now how the damage done to Australia-China relations may be healed anytime soon.
Controversially, I contend that Australia has over the past six years lived through a textbook experiment of covert foreign policy interference by powerful Anglo-American influences, subtly working through local sympathisers in public life here. Australian political elites – already culturally predisposed to trust Anglo-American friends, and naive as to their power and guile – have been persuaded to adopt increasingly adversarial positions against China across a broad front. This essay can only hint at the breadth and skill of this classic Five Eyes information warfare operation: it would take a book to expose it fully.
Clive Hamilton’s notorious attack on China, ‘Silent Invasion’, was published early in 2018. Hamilton had been China-bashing on the fringes of Australian academe for some years beforehand but was still being generally dismissed as an embarrassing outlier. Andrew Podger’s 21 March 2018 review in the Conversation was typical of the Australian mainstream rebuttal of Hamilton’s views, then considered extreme:
‘Perhaps Hamilton’s book is a useful reminder that we must not be naïve about our relationship with China. But his prescription, premised on China being our enemy and determined to achieve world domination, is precisely the wrong direction for addressing the genuine issues he raises. We should engage more, not less.’
Meanwhile, negative views of China’s agenda, supported by well-funded Canberra think-tanks like Australian Strategic Policy Institute and Lowy Institute, were quietly gaining influence in strategic areas of Australian governance. Attorney-General Christian Porter, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, backbencher Andrew Hastie and Senator Eric Abetz emerged as vocal critics of China. On the Labor side, Penny Wong and Kimberley Kitching seemed ready to join the pile-on. Others were silent, anxious not to be tagged as ‘panda-huggers’.
In 2018, the influential and US-sympathetic Joint Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs Defence and Trade supported Malcolm Turnbull’s Foreign Interference Legislation, pressed by Australian security agencies and aimed principally at China. The law was passed in 2019.
Chinese academics and journalists, even a senior NSW parliamentarian, have been harassed and vilified under its powers. Now, a further bill will strengthen Commonwealth control over state and university links to foreign governments: again, the prime target is China, and any Australian premiers who may dare to enmesh their states economically with her. Victoria’s and Western Australia’s Labor premiers are particular targets.
On the foreign policy front, Australia, misled by obviously foreign encouraged street violence against the Hong Kong government, became a vocal critic of China on democracy issues there. Australia criticised alleged human rights abuses against the Uighur ethnic group in Xinjiang Province. But we do not criticise human rights abuses in India and Palestine. Australia conducts repeated naval freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea, in protest against Chinese consolidation of its military control over islands there. Australia supported a bogus US-influenced South China Sea case against China in the International Court of Arbitration, a case bitterly condemned and rejected from the outset by China.
Since 2018, Australia responding to American pressure has banned Huawei from telecom operations here, causing a major rift. The philosophy of economic engagement expounded by Abbott and Xi in 2014 is since 2018 under direct frontal attack. In August 2020, a non-strategic Chinese purchase of a large Australian dairy company was vetoed. The message had now become, Australia wants to go on profitably exporting minerals and foodstuffs to China but to have as little to do with China as possible at the human level. Chinese students here have been accused of doing the bidding of the Chinese Communist Party, and concerns raised about Chinese influence in our universities. Chauvinism and Sinophobia in Australia have grown.
COVID-19 caused further major rifts in 2020. Scott Morrison clumsily mishandled a peremptory Australian demand to WHO – reportedly originating in a request to him from US President Trump – to mount an intrusive international investigation in Wuhan into the origins of the ‘Chinese virus’. China saw that act in particular as a gross act of treachery by a friend. Morrison never apologised.
The tone of Australian mainstream media commentary on China has by now changed utterly to hostility. Establishment commentators and leader writers compete on who can season their journalism with the strongest anti-Chinese language. All pretence of objectivity or straight reporting of tensions is gone: this is now advocacy journalism. Dissenting opinions are discouraged. As media increasingly runs with the ball of Sinophobia, Morrison has began to try to step back. He and Turnbull having started the hares running, now call unconvincingly for moderation. Not just the Murdoch Press but the Australian Financial Review is full of anti-Chinese polemic. China is bitterly criticised as seeking to dictate terms to the world. The Western media outside Australia are picking up the cue. The campaign has taken on McCarthyist, even racist-tinged tones: how dare these Chinese presume to stand up to our Western ‘universal values’ ?
Every Chinese effort to rebut the growing abuse is taken as sign of further Chinese bullying. Their Canberra embassy’s circulated ‘fourteen grievances’ – an effort to list the problem China has with Australian behaviour towards them as a basis for public discussion – were mocked. China is falsely stereotyped as the provocateur and Australia the victim.
Around a few weeks ago, China would have finally decided that Australia could no longer be regarded as a trustworthy and decent partner in dialogue. They would have given up on Australia. The Brereton Report with its reported SAS murders in Afghanistan was an irresistible opportunity for what the West has offensively labelled ‘wolf warrior’ Chinese diplomacy. The photoshopped image of a SAS baby murder, illustrating a tweet by a senior Chinese foreign ministry official criticising Australian hypocrisy, was emphatically condemned by Morrison, who demanded a Chinese apology. China refused.
La commedia e finita. Australian politicians have swung in behind Morrison, while our traders and growers look on with helpless horror. How can what was a good relationship in 2015 it have degenerated to this in just five years? Senior people in industry and trade – like Morrison’s own COVID recovery adviser Nev Power
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/china-dispute-of-great-concern-nev-power-20201201-p56jgm
pleaded on 2 December for a diplomatic solution to ease tensions between Beijing and Canberra. But those who want to see Australia decoupled from China in as many ways as possible stay contentedly silent, looking back with satisfaction on their hidden work of destruction. Australia is safely back in the Five Eyes laager, and those who hoped economic rationality would triumph over global geopolitical exclusion games have been defeated.
Australia’s all-important Asia-Pacific region quietly draws a different lesson from this sad story: the lesson is, do not behave as Australia has done in dealing with China. Treat China with normal diplomatic respect and courtesy, as befits friendly neighbours. Even regional countries that have clashed militarily with China know not to provoke her needlessly, as Australia has done.
Morrison probably sees stoking up anti-Chinese prejudices as a useful distraction from his many governance failures at home: on Robodebt, on COVID-19 preparedness, on bushfires and climate change. Sock the Chinese as if there are no consequences for us.
But the consequences will be great. Australia will be needlessly poorer, more isolated from our region, and more dependent on the uncertain protection of faraway Five Eyes friends. Without a dialogue with China, our necessary engagement with our region will be handicapped. Lee Kuan Yew’s friendly warning – ‘be careful or you will be the poor white trash of Asia’ – comes back now to haunt us.
Tony Kevin is a former Australian ambassador to Poland and Cambodia, and a member of the Emeritus Faculty at Australian National University. The author of Return to Moscow (2017), he has independently visited Russia six times since 2016. He has delivered lectures and taken part in academic conferences in the Moscow Diplomatic Academy and in Saint Petersburg on the outlook for Russia-Australia relations.
Comments
33 responses to “How Australia sabotaged its own interests in relations with China.”
I think China still reserve some not to hit Australian politicians if they wake up from the warning. Let me point out another hypocritical behavior Australia dis to mostly Islamic nation Refugees years ago by keeping them off the Australian coast, to as far as refuse them medical needs in Australia soil.
A shame from a nation preaching human right.
I definitely agree that Morrison’s handling of the relationship is terrible, but some of the statements in this piece are worrying. for example, “..obviously foreign encouraged street violence against the Hong Kong government”. Kevin are you really dismissing the whole HK democracy movement? Don’t you think the extradition treaty was appalling. Have you not read about the scores of people who simply disappeared, presumed taken to the mainland. There are real issues here. In your quest to critique Morrison don’t throw away the serious human rights issues.
That is exactly what they want you to believe.
Who is “they”?
Western propaganda.
What u see on the media is HK police used violence on “protesters”, yes there were, but the cases don’t even come close to the violence that those “protesters” used on HK police and innocent civilians.
If u think the violence of BLM movement and Trump’s fans are horrible, then keep in mind that HK “protesters” are even more ruthless. Those “protester” would’ve been called as “mob” and “terrorists” and shot dead if it was in the US. Even in this situation, HK police are far more restrained than the US police. That is the so called “democracy movement”.
How they did that? They were sent to Taiwan and trained by CIA, to learn how to escalate situation and use media as a tool to accuse HK police.
Then they went back to HK and hand out the guidebook to the young people, the same guidebook that was used in color revolution in the Mid-east.
There u go, job done wonderfully, “democracy fighters”.
Oh Ok so it’s all the fault of the CIA. According to you there is zero problem with the way China has decided to run Hong Kong. You are completely happy with civil liberties in HK at present. Is that right? So all those MP’s who resigned in protest were all CIA operatives were they?
Another lazy search own truth but fake news believer.
Fake News? What is fake news?
As a South East Asian, – I am from Malaysia, – I watch with ample amusement the countless episodes of utter absurdities and stupidity on the part of the Australians, especially that of Scott Morrison.
Lee Kuan Yew was indeed correct, that Australia is but a nation filled with White Trash.
It is “sad” (a word I borrowed from Donald Trump) but true.
Same old , same old,.
Meet the new boss, same as all previous bosses.
http://johnpilger.com/articles/george-bushs-other-poodle
Hopefully, Tony Kevin ‘s insights are too premature and the situation can still be rescued. It is however unfortunate that his observation of interference from other five eyes members should be seen as ‘controversial’. I would have thought it would be par for the course. By ‘controversial’, he probably means that we are reluctant to consider such acts, and therefore too naive to take evasive action. And in this he is probably right. Time to wake up though. Clearly our anglo allies have a vested interest in keeping us in the fold of a west hostile to China. But it certainly isnt in Australia’s interest to go along with this, although, as Tony says, it may be too late, and that is very depressing. That being said, there was always a lot of sinophobia to be stirred up.
Trust is earn through times, Australia was the 1st breach that trust but l think still chance of reparation from observe China didn’t engage in full fledge retaliation yet. Though, Morrison and his administration out to be out.
Tony seems to be engaging in his own ‘diplomacy’. His article itself is as opportunist as his pleas for our behaviour.
I note his dismissive tone re Huawei – so Tony would like our personal – and strategically sensitive communications’ structures’ details to be stored by Xi – China’s President for Life? I note his omission re the 99 year lease on the Port of Darwin – right next to our military base, itself soon to be expanded.
I note his apparent refusal to weigh his preference – for strategic affiliation or for trade.
I note the unbelievability of his “stirrer” contribution and I resent its insult.
What so the wicked Chinese will roll up the port of Darwin and take it home. As for the rest of your comment I have no idea of what you are trying to say.
A combative reply. As ‘Charles’ ’is a pseudonym I do not know how I may have insulted this unknown person. As to the ‘unbelievability’ of my views, I am encouraged by the support for them shown by many correspondents here .
Is it too late ? In diplomacy it is never too late . But there has to be a genuine political will and willingness to learn from mistakes. I see no sign of this in the Morrison inner circle: they remain impervious to reason and insensitive to good manners. But Labor Shadow Foreign Minister Penny Wong said some sensible things over the weekend, and opinion pieces today in AFR by Andrew Robb and Professor James Curran are encouraging. So much damage to Australian economic interests has been done already .
How Morrison implements the new Commonwealth legislative controls over State and University agreements with Chinese institutions ( something yet to be tested in our courts) will be the next test of commonsense and decent respect for China. The rabid Sinophobes will be in full cry , anxious to dismantle what is left of cooperation between Australian and Chinese institutions. They must be confronted. Evil triumphs when the good say nothing.
Mr. Tony, I don’t know if you understand Chinese, but Australia’s reaction is actually not surprising to the Chinese. China has a long enough history, and Australia’s reaction has appeared many times in Chinese history. In fact, Australia is “事大主义” (I don’t know how to explain this term), much like North Korea in history. You may hardly imagine that when the Ming Dynasty defeated the Yuan Dynasty and became the most powerful country in the world, North Korea would choose to go to war with China, but this is what happened in history. For North Korea, which is “事大主义”, the ruling class is highly bound to the Yuan Dynasty and can no longer look back. Once the forces close to the Ming Dynasty come to power, the old forces will lose everything. Therefore, the existing ruling class in Australia cannot turn back until the new power defeats them. The defeat I am talking about does not mean victory in elections, but complete liquidation. The old forces will lose their political influence, property, and even their lives. It was like the North Korean generals who went to the Ming Dynasty led their troops back to North Korea and captured the capital The Han City. History always goes back and forth, but every time it is different.
I am not sufficiently knowledgeable to comment intelligently in an overview sense on the present China-malaise, beyond that the problem has escalated way beyond President Morrison’s foreign policy capabilities and China is more than capable of matching any puerile reaction from Australia, with a puerile reaction of its own. What I will say in respect of President Morrison’s response to “that tweet”, was I have no doubt he thought long and hard about his reaction. Unfortunately, what he was thinking about was how his reaction could be used for domestic self-promotion. And was it not Mr Smugly McSmirkyface’s wish to be seen as a great and powerful global leader in publicly calling for an international investigation into Covid and its alleged Wuhan source that turned a relationship that was far from ideal but more or less stable, into a “tit for tat” slanging match or have I missed something?
See my reply to Basil below.
Yes. I am a “grower and a trader” and I too look on with horror as years of hard and dedicated work in developing relationships with China is trashed by our ignorant, arrogant political class in Canberra. A political class that knows nothing of Chinese history nor cares about Australia’s future,- only their own political necks. The only thing of comfort is that we do have John Menadue’s blog for discourse on this matter. To listen to the drivel from the lips of our mainstream media, such as on the ABC “Insiders” this morning, only leads to further despair. Penny Wong did make a gallant attempt at a considered position, but she too must be terrified at what the “five eyes” might inflict upon her,- as they did all those years ago to Whitlam!
It was said that Bin Ladin in his final days spent his time looking at recorded TV broadcasts in which he featured. We now know that Morrison has a photographer following him around producing what amount to propaganda photographs. I wonder if Morrison has someone collecting and cataloguing TV broadcasts in which he features. No, I am not comparing Scott Morrison in any other way with Bin Ladin, but such is the way of narcissists.
“Their embassy’s circulated ‘fourteen grievances’ were mocked,” without being published, of course. Not one Australian in 100 has read those fourteen (very real) grievances).
As to, “Australia will be needlessly poorer, more isolated from our region,” it is true. I live in SE Asia and I can promise that no-one here has any sympathy whatever for Australia’s plight. The episode has, if anything, only strengthened Asian solidarity.
I will be going back to Mindanao when Australia gets a vaccine (last in Asia) and let me assure readers here, no one has any sympathy for Australia’s self inflicted problems, in Mindanao or it seems from a distance, the Philippines in general. President Duterte will be hosting a visit by Putin next year, Russian and Chinese vaccines will be used with assistance from both those countries and the US navy has been kicked out the West Phiippines Sea by Duterte. The muslims of Mindanao appear not to give a toss about the Uighurs, unlike that staunch defender of Islamic rights – Australia. Whose soldiers commit atrocities against Afghan civilians in a war of aggression against a country that never threatened us. If it wasnt so tragic it would be joke.
Thanks for your point about the Muslims there. Same here. I asked one why they weren’t disturbed by the allegations about Xinjiang and she handed me a report by one of the World Muslim Council’s 12 International inspectors who checked it out. It was not published in the West, of course, but the Times of India published an interview: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/pakistan/no-cultural-religious-repression-of-uighur-muslims-in-xinjiang-pakistan-diplomat/articleshow/67675590.cms
I began reading this piece well disposed to the case being made. However it came across as assuming most of what it was trying to demonstrate.
This paragraph seemed to be taking as its criterion of truth or at least the wisdom of various positions, the Chinese position on things.
I read on a little further, but not far.
Can i suggest you read the Philippines experts in regard to the bogus claim in regard to the Spratleys by the failed and unpopular government of Aquino on a claim initiated by Marcos. In particular the articles by Rigoberto Tiglao an anti-communist, imprisoned by Marcos who has written the definitive analysis of the West philippines Sea dispute. He is not a white man so maybe you wont have the energy.
https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/08/05/opinion/columnists/topanalysis/arbitration-suit-vs-china-a-colossal-hoax/750998/
Some of us have been encouraged by the rise of China, and see it as a potentially better torch-bearer of civilisation than the Anglo-culture was ever likely to be. It is far from perfect, but we feel like supporting it against a culture that is clearly crashing.
Spot on. The hysteria about China being whipped up by the government and media is lurching us a to a war footing. Australia and China are complementary economies. Decoupling our economies would seriously impede the prosperity of both countries.
But if the foreign policy hawks genuinely believe China’s intention is to invade or subjugate Australia they should advocate the obvious step and ban or impose a huge tariff on iron ore exports to cruel Chinse steel production used for infrastructure and construction to drive its growth. And also close China’s three BeiDou telecommunication stations in Australia that act as an alternative telecommunication systems to the US GPS system and is vital for guiding its navigation craft including missiles. And join the US and Japanese navies in asserting their right to sail up and down the Chinse coast supposedly to keep sea lanes opens that have never been closed to trade.
Either we decide to co-exist with China or we prepare for war and hope our neigbours take our side, not China’s. So far they they preferred to engage with China to their mutual benefit, not ramp up tensions. Even Japan which invaded, occupied and desecrated Japan for 15 years between 1937 and 1945 has restored relations with China and recently signed a new trade deal. If they can work with China, why not us?
I thought I’d reached a stage in life in which not much would surprise me, but I have to admit that the pace of deterioration in the Australia-China relationship has left me flabbergasted. That this could happen without any clear strategy or sense of a endgame on the part of those leading the campaign against China, or any explanation as to how it serves Australian interests other than vague notions of defending our “values” – whatever that means in this context – adds to my astonishment. The endless babble by commentators in the media who are clueless about China, its history, its foreign policy strategic objectives, and so on, has both been conditioned by this campaign of distortion, and amplifies it. As one not prone to conspiracy theories or theories of dark secretive forces driving foreign policy, I am at first hesitant to accept Tony Kevin’s idea of a Five Eyes information warfare operation, but in the absence of any sensible, rational explanation as to how Australia finds itself in a mess with China that we don’t need to be in, and that is so counter to our substantive national interests, I’m prompted to give Tony’s proposition some serious thought.
‘without any clear strategy or sense of an endgame’ is not a matter of importance for this government. They seem to have only one consistent policy: to stay in power and do whatever is needed to that end, no matter the legality nor the morality of their actions.
It’s not necessary to posit a “classic Five Eyes information warfare operation” to make the case (conspiracy or a stuff up?) : your case is persuasive and the truth of it much to be regretted even without a Five Eyes operation. Even so, if you write the book I’ll buy a copy.
Basil and Lawry, as a former DFAT professional trained to see stuff-up rather than conspiracy in most situations, I initially shared your scepticism. But we do know that US and UK have much experience in setting up and using clusters of influence to drive regime change and policy redirection , as seen for example in revealed materials from Integrity Initiative and Institute for Statecraft in the UK. As Basil says , when the cost to Australian national interests is proving so bizarrely high that even Morrison’s circle is now getting worried, one does look in this case for something to have triggered such kspectacular national stupidity.
I do not think there will be a book by me on this, unless a major Australian book publisher commissions it from me. Unlikely now.
Thanks Jim Cable for your interesting comments.
What “triggered such kspectacular national stupidity” was probably assisted by various groups and people pushing an anti China agenda for their own reasons but Morrison et al didn’t have to act on it. I think things are the way they are because Morrison saw an anti China stance as a way to boost his domestic popularity and distract voters from his many failings. He either didn’t see or didn’t care about the damage it would do ( or saw and still didn’t care). This kspectacular stupid thing was done because the Australian people voted for a kspectacular stupid and incompetent PM and government. China relations is not exactly the only area in which they are messing up and this screw up is consistent with their actions in nearly all other policy areas. Luckily democracy is one of our values and the Australia people are free to vote Morrison back into power at the next election. This is one of the things that makes us better than the Chinese.
I think the 5 eyes context makes a lot of sense. What would be the logical response of the Anglo-American world to ongoing collapse (1)? To bring all the members closer, and away from the non-anglo world, in response to the perceived threat from China and Russia. To make this happen, the Anglo world has enforced complete compliance in the commercial media for the last several years. This enabled Brexit, taking Britain away from the EU (2). Removing Australia from the economic sphere of China, as discussed in this article, is part of the same logic.
1. “U.S. Military Could Collapse Within 20 Years Due to Climate Change, Report Commissioned By Pentagon Says”, Nafeez Ahmed, in Motherboard, 24-Oct-2019
2. “Brexit and the media”, Simon Hinde In Hermès, La Revue Volume 77, Issue 1, 2017, pages 80 to 86