Assuming that the Morrison government goes more or less to full term — and some senate obstruction should not be enough to persuade a governor-general, even one in a witness support scheme — to grant an early dissolution — Morrison has probably about 15 months of economic recovery, ordinary economic management, and general steering of the ship of state before he must face the electors.
His recovery results will be heavily influenced by matters now out of his control, such as the future of trade with China, consciously put in jeopardy for no clear reason. For the moment, iron ore prices may overcome, in total value, the losses faced by coal miners (many of the mine owners actually Chinese), wine, fish, and barley, and any other item chosen for impact on the Australian economy and Australian public opinion. But it is China setting the pace, not us.
Quite separate from that is the impact on the world economy, on the United States, and on Australia, of the continuing trade war between China and the US. It is said that President Joe Biden is as hardline on China as Trump, but of a somewhat different style, more focused on negotiation and multilateral channels. All that may be so, but one can be sure that the economic conflict and the “local hegemony” pushing and shoving will be resolved by Chinese and American negotiators in their own interests, and without any regard for Australia’s. Nor should we kid ourselves that the cost of going out of our way to provoke China is being negated by a wave of world sympathy for the way China is said to have been bullying us. Deeds, not words, will matter, and all of our traditional trading competitors will be trying to grab Australian market share.
The pandemic has hit many economies very hard. Even with the availability of vaccines, including ones being distributed free, mostly to the third world, by Russia and China, it may take a long time before trade supply and demand and the movement of money and people between countries is anywhere back to normal. An obvious example from the Australian viewpoint involves air transport and tourist income from overseas. Sooner or later, the Australian recovery is going to bump hard against such considerations, which operate quite independently of our attempts to provoke a war with China or the resolution of the trade war.
It is by no means clear that Morrison has the currency or the cred with international players to manoeuvre Australia into a position where we can pick the low-hanging fruit of world recovery. Indeed we may have squandered the hard-won advantage of good virus management and an earlier restart by the way we have become involved in unnecessary quarrels.
We are certainly not improving our standing with other countries with our position on climate change, loyally maintained by Morrison to the supposed advantage of some tiny constituencies against strong opposition from the wider electorate. Australia is now an international rogue — almost a pariah at the level of apartheid South Africa — on the matter.
Many of our traditional friends, particularly in Europe, Canada, the Pacific and now the US are looking at us with disdain. Morrison is ignoring the advice of some he regards as friends, such as Boris Johnson. Biden has been a good friend of Australia but has no real relationship with Morrison (or any of his ministers) and plenty of reason to treat them (as Barak Obama did) with a certain disgust. This is not least because of how Morrison tried to associate himself with Donald Trump. If Biden thought about it, and there will be people who remind him, the resentment will extend to Morrison’s association with deeply politicised American cults operating rather more as Trump public action committees than in furtherance of religious beliefs. George Pell apparently to the contrary, God is not a registered Republican, and nor should any Australian PM be.
Morrison learned from both John Howard and later Tony Abbott, a certain type of anti-internationalist rhetoric about Australia making up its own mind about international problems and refusing to be bullied by others. It may serve well, up to a point, with an Australian audience when our leaders are getting lectures on human rights from Libya or dealing with critical commentary from the OECD, under present management, on our lack of meaningful or effective action on climate. But Australians do not, by and large, have a chip on their shoulder about being citizens of the world, champions of human rights and advocates of collective action to fight common problems, including pandemics.
It was Morrison, in particular, who ramped up the rhetoric against refugees, and treated them not as people fleeing war and oppression but as invaders, possibly terrorists engaged in intrinsically illegal activity. Liberal ministers have incited hatred against groups of refugees and confected a law and order crisis — one which was, it is to be noted, repudiated by the electorate.
Morrison and Frydenberg (when the former was Treasurer, the other, minister for the environment) were notionally on the side of Malcolm Turnbull when he was trying to coax some (minimal) action on climate change. But Morrison is now personally one of the most reactionary and obstinate ministers on the subject. He is seemingly unable to make any sort of significant shift, and will not if it makes him look bad.
But his obstinacy does not come from philosophical or scientific opinion — he simply ignores the science and the advice coming to his government that are entirely against him. Nor is he doing this simply from a strongly-held opinion (or detached independent external advice). On matters such as these Morrison is pragmatic and conviction-free. If he has any abiding beliefs they cannot be deduced from what he says. Most likely he now recognises the need to move in a significant way but hasn’t yet worked out a marketing trick for making any concessions seem enormous to an outside audience, while minuscule to voters. It’s a hard ask, made more difficult every day. Perhaps he fears that a major move would have a few cross the floor — but to vote with whom?
Morrison acts as though he is on top. But carrying on in the way he does can only make his government more vulnerable. Labor might want to avoid being wedged — on national security for example — but should reflect that hardly any of Morrison’s views or policies are in the national interest. I cannot think that a smart opposition ought to be assisting him to resolve any of his dilemmas, or helping to smooth the contradictions of his policies. It needs more mongrel, not more understanding, deference and discreet assistance. But a winning opposition must do more than inserting more “nots” in government policy statements. It should be imaging and selling, an altogether fresh view of what Australia and Australians need. It ought to on about an entirely different, yet strangely familiar concept of the role of government, the purpose of government, and the way good government is done. In my lifetime not a single alternative Labor government has won simply by promising not to be like the government.
John Waterford AM, better known as Jack Waterford, is an Australian journalist and commentator.
Comments
34 responses to “Morrison, the man with no abiding beliefs, also lacks agenda, map or destination”
Morrison, the ‘zero-talent weirdo’. That sums him up, I think
But , but, Jack: Don’t forget we have those “five eyes” of intelligence to guide this religious crank with unbiased options, so rest easy mate.
“If he has any abiding beliefs they cannot be deduced from what he says”
It seems widespread amongst LNP politicians that they don’t say where they stand on climate and clean energy, like a corollary to their internal talking point memos – an advisement to not talk about climate or say anything that appears like division or ambition. Even pollies like Barnaby Joyce avoid saying outright that he rejects the science on climate, without leaving much doubt that he does.
How long can this tactical coyness be sustained? It seems like it has gone on for decades and reporters/interviewers have never seemed to be willing to press them on what they really think, or what sources of information about it they look to, or if they even read IPCC or CSIRO/BoM reports, or if they seek out the Chief Scientist or other experts to explain what they don’t understand? But I haven’t seen much better from the ALP – not much Mongrel in the ALP on that front, despite what looks like big targets and ample opportunity; too focused on the defensive perhaps.
Yet I suspect even within the LNP there are more that accept the climate problem is very serious than the tiny few who dare say so out loud. I am not sure what must change for them to vote against fossil fuel supportive, clean energy impeding party policies. I cannot see them growing bold under Scott Morrison.
It’s rather sad, the headline is morrison to a tee, why doesn’t a majority of voters see that?
lololol I haven’t read the article (yet) as the headline says it all!
While Morrison and his Wolverines appear to be cultivating belligerence with China for the sake of US interests, which could lead to a war, they are also very pleased that sales of iron ore to China have increased dramatically and now propping up Australian GDP. Meanwhile the dollar is rising which is not good for Australia’s current economic situation for necessary imports, and exports other than iron ore.
If they are in fact cultivating war, then isn’t it remarkable that this resembles the days of “pig iron Bob” all over again.
The difference this time however, is that China is not imperialist like Japan in the 1930s wanting to start a war, while the US seems intent of delivering one.
Liberals appear to learn nothing, and of course Labor goes along for the ride not to appear too different.
The value of the Hong Kong stock exchange last year was five trillion US dollars. This year it is six trillion. A wave of sympathy for the HK secessionists? Not. Morrison has placed a huge bet on continued US dominance in Asia. He has put the house mortgage, the missus and the pet dog on our biggest gamble in history. A mug punter.
Tell the story, please Skilts?
What Scomo punt underwrote the HKX?
There are smarties and mug punters. Morrison is a mug punter. He put everything on the nose for a Trump victory and bet our balance of payments and long term economic future on a society split by racial division, political corruption, money being printed like its going out of fashion and a declining consumer base. The smart money which flowed into HK put it on the future of an expanding market of the Chinese middle class of 400 million consumers and a society that has increased the average wage by 100% in the last ten years. Morrison didnt underwrite the HKX surge. Like all mug punters he backed the losing horse. The smart money always looks at the mugs and puts their money eleswhere. But he did get a medal from Trump.
What a load of crap, go and compare the ASX200 from say 1995 to today with the Hang Seng.
What, no political corruption in your nirvana called China lololololol. And your comment about printing shows you’re an ignorant tool.
O dear the Wall Street Journal published this a day ago.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-stocks-have-banner-year-gaining-nearly-5-trillion-11608892204”
“Chinese businesses listed on exchanges from New York to Shanghai have
added 41% to $16.7 trillion, according to S&P Global Market
Intelligence data for the year through Dec. 22. That outpaces a 21%
run-up for American companies to $41.6 trillion. ”
And they did it without their printing presses pumping devalued paper money into stocks as the US did this year with the US COVID “rescue package.”
Morrison just put the biggest bet in our history on an economy with a 24 trillion dollar debt and flat productivity. PRC will overtake the US economy in size by 2028. Just a word of advice. Stop reading Macrobusiness. It makes the reader go blind to economic reality. Have a nice day there champ.
Like I said, simply look at the charts from ’95 to today, not much diff and if you’re as smart as you think you should know cherry picking dates proves nothing.
I don’t support MBs position on China and for my pains have been blocked twice for 3 months on each occasion.
May I also say that Morrison reflects the obstinacy and revenge behaviours of Donald Trump.
Installing Andrew Hastie as assistant defence minister recently is nothing but pure and deliberate provocation. Hastie, is part of the group within federal parliament called the “Wolverines”, war hawks who are said to represent Washington more than Canberra in their attitude towards China. The group also includes Tim Wilson and James Patterson, both members of the notorious IPA. Hastie is ex-SAS and also an evangelical right wing Christian. In giving Hastie this promotion, Morrison is literally poking China in the eye again – it is a provocative, stubborn, and destructive in terms of a diplomatic message.
He also put Alan Tudge in charge of immigration, when it has only been a couple of months since a Federal Court judge labelled his behaviour as criminal after he left an Afghan man languishing in an immigration detention centre despite a tribunal ordering he be granted a visa.
One also sees Morrison’s revenge taking place with the federal government bushfire relief. Towns like Cobargo appear to be still struggling to obtain assistance through endless red tape. This is very likely to be related to the fact that Morrison’s photo opportunity after the fires had decimated the town, was marred by a gestures from locals that he wasn’t welcome. Meanwhile Australia’s second richest man, Richard Pratt has already received $11 million under the same relief package, even though his paper pulping factory was not affected by the fire.
Morrison is one of the last of the Trump rump. With a medal of course. Pathetic if it wasnt so serious.
Thank you Jack.
“If he has any abiding beliefs they cannot be deduced from what he says”. That’s what earned his epitaph “Scotty from Marketing”.
All we get is the latest-flavoured spin and knee-jerk, funded by yet more debt and corruption. To change it, we need to tackle systemic graft in the major parties and concentrate on Australia’s desperate needs. A bill of rights. The rule of law. A rethought Federation. And a dashboard showing progress now on carbon neutrality, icecap melting, wildlife habitat retention, accommodation of cultural diversity, strengthened regional alliances, restored foreign aid.
Exactly!
Viewed through Scotty’s prism of the religious right, he will fail at the next election on the four c’s – China, climate, Covid and conservative economics.
His idea of a “comeback” is a mirage, the word constantly repeated by a myriad of guinea fowl.
Well said Jack. We are a pariah state. I am reminded of SA 70’s and 80’s. Albo is a gutless toad. A complete waste of space. He is not reading or reacting to the crises around him.
Short and Crisp! It does look like a slam dunk for the LNP whenever the next elections are held. Not only Albo- how about this feeble and useless statement from Sen. Penny Wong about a Chinese/PNG fishing facility: “… the Morrison government must guarantee the fishing facility did not threaten Australia’s security interests or fisheries.” Sounds like she wants to be more reactionary than even the red neck conservatives!
Yes, I saw that. Why not a joint venture with the Chinese.
A joint venture to strip the straits bare?
Its called commercial fishing mate. Do you have any science to back up the scare mongering? Thought not. We had a joker posting here opposing the construction of railways for heavans sake. You tree tories want poor people to remain poor. We get it. The rest of the world doesnt buy it.
Skilts, your little bully boy tactics won’t work with me.
Have a look what they’re doing over in the Galapagos, try to open your eyes to their behaviour in west Africa. See what they’ve done in their own waters which is why they’re now strip trawling 10s of thousands of kilometres from their own country and have a fleet that dwarfs the rest of the world’s fleet by many multiples.
You’re nothing but a fake left CCP toadie.
Actually DNE, the Fake Left one is you. The Galapagos? That was a squid fishing fleet fishing OUTSIDE the Galapagos reserve and these marine reserves are supposed to boost fishing via the “spillover effect”. Those of us in the fishing industry pointed out that a lot of fish migrate so MPA’s were not a silver bullet but we werent listened to. Now the big ENGO’s are saying fishing beside a reserve endangers it? They were the ones who pushed for it but now they have an opportunity to push for an even bigger reserve in the Eastern Tropical Pacific called the Eastern Tropical Pacific Corridor, google it. The Chinese fishing fleet devasting the Galapagos hoax provides a handy pretext.
West Africa? Would be nice if people like you were concerned about what the Europeans have been doing to African fisheries for the last 40 years snd are still doing but all people like you talk about is China.
As for their own waters their management may lag the West but is quickly catching up, hence the total ban on all forms of fishing in the Yangtze River basin for ten years to recover fish stocks announved early this year. Over 20 000 former fishermen have been retrained and assisted into new employment.
Their fleet may be the worlds largest but thats a result of China’s decentralised government style. Coastal provinces have subsidised the fleets growth as an employment measure and economy building measure and the central government is only recently coming to grips with it as evidenced by recently announced fishing closures for their squid fleet in the south west Atlantic following complaints from Argentina in particular.
You’re playing around with the “spillover effect”. Designed to allow sustainable fishing for local fisheries to fish sustainably. So did Ecuador put in a marine sanctuary so China could come along and benefit? The idea that the Chinese fleet isn’t going inside the zone is laughable.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environmental-conservation/article/abs/spillover-from-marine-reserves-and-the-replenishment-of-fished-stocks/1D9AB3EA38D9C2E001A06E840587CE43
Btw, nice diversion going on about what other countries are doing in west Africa, the original post was “Why not a joint venture with the Chinese.” in the Torres Straight. I’d have the same comment if it was suggested we do that with any other country as well.
As well: https://www.futuredirections.org.au/publication/the-chinese-distant-water-fishing-fleet-and-illegal-unreported-and-unregulated-fishing/
With the Mindaroo Foundation and Stokes it can hardly be described as anti Chi
O dear. I merely asked for the science and you answer with a diatribe about “fake left” and “toadies”. In regard to “Galapagos” the informed comments of “exasperated77” not withstandng, you maybe referring to the Fu Yu Leng 666. In 2017 there was one breach by a PRC flagged vessel, the Fu Yu Leng 666 which engaged in IUF (Illegal Unregulated Fishing). The Fuzhou Hong Long Long Distance Fishing Co., the owners of the Fu Yu Leng 666 has had its license revoked by PRC authorities and its staff have been put on a “blacklist” maintained by the Department of Agriculture’s Fishing Bureau as a consequence. They are out of business of fishing. The crew were convicted and imprisoned for four years in Ecuador without protest from the PRC. The Fu Yuan Yu Leng 999 was a refrigeration vessel and the IUF catch had been stored from TAIWANESE trawlers. O dear. So on the basis of ONE breach three years ago you make the excited claim of depletion of fishing stocks throughout the world. With respect that is not science. It is sinophobia which is peddled fanatically on Sky and Fairfax. Given that the illegally taken sharks stored by the Fu Yu Leng 666 were caught by TAIWANESE trawlers and no action has been taken against the trawler owners by the friendly nice government of Taiwan maybe you can fire off a protest to their Embassy? The vast majority (86%) of industrial deep sea fishing is dominated by five nations – China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Spain. When China and Taiwan are analyzed together, they account for approximately 52% of the industrial fishing effort detected on the high seas. But as a tree tory presumably you are opposed to industrial deep sea fishing also. Sigh.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6070320/
Your defence is just laughable bs. The idea that the Chinese fishing fleet is not plundering is just a joke and your defence shows you for what you are, an astroturfer.
I didnt defend anything. I just set out the facts of the Galapagos crime. Industrial deep sea fishing is not an exclusive PRC activity. You are a tree tory so presumably you regard industrial fishing as “plundering”? I am just curious as to why you are not similarly outraged by the other 26 nations that engage in industrial deep sea fishing? Your link regarding the Galapagos didn’t work? Can you please re post so it can be accessed? As every deep sea fishing fleet uses ASI can you reference any other prosecutions by Ecuador of PRC fishing vessels in regard to the Galapagos? Because i cant find any. The Future Directions paper states the trite fact that PRC has the largest deep water fishing fleet in the world and than makes the completely unsubstantiated claim that it engages in widespread illegal activity. Merely quoting an anti-PRC “think tank” doesn’t wash here mate. Astroturfer? I have been a trade union activist all my life. If the PRC would like to sling a few RMB my way i am more than happy to accept. I am a retired steelworker and trade union official hopefully returning to Mindanao when the laziest most incompetent PM in our history can raise his arse off his banana lounge and get the vaccine into Australia. I suggest you broaden your research out of the anti-PRC echo chamber of ASPI and Future Directions. And there are no reds under the bed. We are watching the Boxing Day Test and dozing off in the arvo.
Skilts, you’re a paid astroturfer. 147 posts and been here a month and north of 95% of your posts are directly China related posts, the other 5% cover that area. A lot of China apologists here, but I think you’re amongst a handful of turfers at most.
EDIT: lololol this gets even better. You should cover your tracks better, not only have you posted 147 comments in one month (Disqus shows where you’ve been posting), guess what you have posted only here and at The Global Times.
And I haven’t quoted ASPI, don’t be lazy sod!
A.S.T.R.O.T.U.R.F.E.R.
Hope it pays well.
Edit: btw you realise the Mindaroo Foundation is Twiggy Forrest, don’t you? FMG, with China it’s virtually ONLY buyer of their iron ore and VERY much pro China, so calling Mindaroo Foundation anti PRC shows you up to be not just the astroturfer you are, but a lazy one. Oh, and Stokes (that’s Kerry Stokes) is the owner of 7 West Media and West Trac with ties to Caterpillar in China. lolololol.
Forest and Stokes are anti-working class parasites. Forest is just another one of the Australian comprador class living richly off the wealth of this country on stolen land. He is not pro-PRC. He is pro wealth. That you would even consider these parasites supporters of PRC is risible. It was Lenin who said that the last capitalist would sell to the communists the last piece of rope to hang them with. That sums up Stokes, Forest, Rio and BHP.
Mate this is laughable. I am on the aged pension. My name is Paul Matters and i am currently living in a room in the Harp Hotel in Wollongong waiting to go back to Mindanao where i am writing hopefully some books. I also posted under my name Paul Matters here until for some unknown reason the Disquis reverted me to my hero Bobby Skiltons nick name. I also post on the Independent newspaper site. Mate i was a train driver in the Port Kembla steelworks, trade union organizer in the steelworkers union in Port Kembla, Secretary of the South Coast Labour Council for twelve years and since then have been doing some advocacy for poor people. I was effectively black listed from even doing cleaning work after i left the labour council. The most money i have ever earnt in my life was 42 thousand dollars a year in 1998. Mate i wish they would pay me. Any supplement to the pension by Beijing gold would be much appreciated. So i hope the Embassy picks up your lunatic ravings and chips in with a few shekels to help me on my way through the bell lap of life. I have had an interesting and i hope somewhat useful life and i am so fortunate. I have an interest in PRC having had the great privilege to visit with a trade union group in 1978. I was greatly moved by the determination and impressive commitment of the trade union people in PRC that we met. I have lived long enough to see what they spoke of enthusiastically come to fruition with a strong, prosperous and fair China. Mate your fevered brainwashed imagination has got the better of your senses. By the way, I couldnt give a flying toss who you are as you are just another poor misled mug. Dime a dozen mate.
Sir,
That phrase you used at the end says it all: “-but should reflect that hardly any of Morrison’s views or policies are in the national interest. ” In my three and the half decades in Australia, I have not seen a government and opposition so bedeviled by insularity and prejudice as the present ones. It is as if mainstream Australia is tussling again with the idea of culture and identity; often at the expense of other migrant communities. In this peculiarly Australian “jihad”, the idea that “they are what we are not” is traceable to the often vaunted “Australian values”, and test for migrants applying for Australian citizenship.
The same need to assert a uniquely Australian, thus Anglo-Saxon/European based, identity seems to be extended to its international dealing. It is especially telling in its not wanting to see an Asian nation become a dominant force in the Asian Pacific region. Hence our government’s eagerness to please the Americans and our constant harping of “common values”. For this reason, Australia is even willing to antagonise our biggest trading partner to assuage an essentially cultural conflict. The idea that “we will not compromise our values” both from the government and the opposition seems to take precedence over the health of our economy. Now, China is helping us decouple. We do not as yet have an economic strategy in place, just the airy idea that we “should” find other markets and develop “new products” to sell to these hypothetical markets.
The US and European Union have their own problems at a time when Australia had hardly any real problems. Yet in recent times, it seems to have generated problems of its own to be in unison with the West – just to be able to say that we have the same values. The US and Europeans do not have the same values as their allies; just common vested interests. The future is going to be hard for Australians.
Sincerely,
Teow Loon Ti
You have to laugh at Scott telling us (and China) his attitude and behaviour towards China is purely focussed on Australia’s interests, then Donald Trump gives him a ridiculously over the top award which happens to be one of the highest military decorations for “leadership in addressing global challenges” for “strengthening the alliance between the two countries”. 1.
Funny that, I wonder how often Scott kowtowed in subservience to the president, risking Australia’s future for being such a sycophant with Trump and his permanent anti-Chinese tirades.
Australia has no independence under the Liberals (not that Labor is much better) it might as well be the 51st state these days.
The award was also given to Shinzo Abe who is now undergoing bribery and corruption inquiries, the real reason for leaving politics, and Narendra Modi, who is largely under criticism for fascist behaviour and stirring the pot against Muslims (particularly in Kashmir) in his control of India. Of course all that doesn’t matter because they are both being wooed by the US to be anti-China allies.
1. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/donald-trump-awards-scott-morrison-with-one-of-the-highest-military-honours-20201222-p56pmb.html
This “Legion of Merit” should be renamed as The Trump Order of Servility! Now the Quad lapdogs have been appropriately rewarded, who will reward the President with a pardon? Maybe he will try what Nixon did- get Pence to become President and then get himself pardoned 🙂