Australia is fast becoming a sad joke, an object lesson in how not to behave towards China. If we are becoming an example, it is an example of what to avoid.
‘According to lore, or perhaps mythology, a newspaper editor in the Antipodes warned the Kaiser in circa 1914 not to do something or other – which, needless to say, he did. Or perhaps it was the Tsar at the time of the Crimean War. In any event, the phrase ‘We Warn the Kaiser’ has come to illustrate gratuitous warnings by self-important types which have no effect whatsoever.’ (Gerard Henderson’s Media Watchdog, Issue no 457 26 June 2019).
Ms Natasha Kassam, a research fellow in the diplomacy and public opinion program at Lowy Institute, may have hoped that the Chinese Government would take her opinion essay ‘China cannot have it both ways’ (AFR 28-29 p 42 Nov 2020) more seriously than Kaiser Wilhelm took the warning from an obscure Australian country newspaper. At any rate, the Australian Financial Review gave Kassam’s essay prime position on its editorial page and followed it up with a similar editorial the next day. So let us consider her arguments seriously.
She claims in summary that Beijing has badly underestimated Australian resistance to what she terms its threats; and that the Australian example of courage and national unity in the face of such Chinese Communist Party bullying is inspiring or will inspire other countries around the world to stand up to Beijing.
It is interesting that a research fellow was tasked to carry the argument on a matter of such national importance. One might have expected the Executive Director of the Lowy Institute, Dr Michael Fullilove AM, to sign his name to this. But maybe it was a trial balloon, sent up to test which way the wind is blowing? Or maybe it was meant as a not-so-subtle putdown to Beijing?
In any event, the Australian Financial Review upped the ante against China in its strongly worded editorial the next day, 30 November: ‘Beijing’s freezer brings Australia out of the cold’ which amplified the case put by Kassam.
Omissions from the Kassam article are telling. There was no mention of the key trigger that most provoked China’s anger: Australia’s aggressively worded demand to WHO to investigate the coronavirus that allegedly originated in Wuhan, China, and which in true Trumpian style pointed the finger of blame firmly at China.
Australian allegations of human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang were not mentioned: nor was the McCarthyist mistreatment by Australian parliamentary committees and mainstream media of prominent Chinese Australians. There was a cursory reference to the ‘14 grievances’:
‘The Chinese embassy’s list of irritations is lengthy, spanning concerns from foreign investment decisions to unfriendly media reporting’.
Kassam dismissively noted ‘the familiar litany of complaints that Canberra is out of line in the South China Sea or on Huawei’s exclusion from our 5G network’. She concluded the first part of her essay:
‘But now it seems that Beijing is openly demanding political compliance from not just the Australian government, but the free press and academia too. All of this comes from a country that claims to be a defender of the international order, on the basis of “mutual respect”.’
There was no discussion of the merits of the Chinese grievances, despite their ample exposition in Chinese official statements and in Chinese media close to the state. There was no mention of advocacy by various prominent Australians urging that the Chinese grievances be taken more seriously: e.g., by Geoff Raby, Bob Carr, Gareth Evans, Gregory Clark, Peter Drysdale, Andrew Forrest, and other leading business figures.
Kassam’s real purpose was to convey a story of resolute Australian national circling of the wagons around the principled positions that the Morrison Government is taking: and to claim that the Australian strategy is fast attracting international support. In important respects, I believe, this is a false narrative, full of assertion but almost devoid of evidence. I would similarly criticise the AFR editorial of 30 November.
Kassam notes:
‘Almost all Australians want to diversify away from the Chinese market, and trust in China has plummeted, according to the latest Lowy Institute Poll.’
She says:
“Businesses in both countries look for alternatives and prepare for what now seems inevitable: politically motivated trade disruption’.
She offers no data to support the claimed alternative markets for Australia. She is silent on the massive economic costs Australia now faces, as predicted on a worst-case scenario by a leading global bank CITI, reported in Australian Financial Review, page 6, 28-29 November, ‘China tensions could lead to a $76B hit: Citi’.
The CITI figures are indeed scary, under its downside scenario which given Australia’s continued truculence towards China now looks the most likely scenario. A 50% drop in our exports to China, including iron ore, would cause Australia’s total merchandise exports to decline by 20% over the coming year, leading to a $76 billion loss in our export earnings, causing a sizeable 3.8% hit to nominal GDP. (And this is apparently without taking into account any estimate of Keynesian multiplier effects). CITI suggests that in this scenario the Australian dollar would be around 16 cents lower compared to baseline over the next 12 months.
Kassam, and the subsequent AFR editorial on 30 November, claim that the Australian example of courage in the face of Chinese bullying could lead to world mobilisation of support for WTO rules under Biden’s new internationalist engagement. With great respect to her and the AFR editorialist, this is optimistic nonsense.
No country other than Australia has gone out of its way to thumb its nose gratuitously – and over several years now – at Beijing. In true Monty Python Black Knight fashion, we prance about with increasing aggressiveness as our limbs are lopped off. Our friends and allies do not know whether to laugh or cry at our vainglorious diplomatic incompetence.
Ironically, American and European exporters will pick up the formerly secure markets that Australia is abandoning. There will be honeyed words of support and sympathy for us, dutifully reported by our embassies: but the truth is that we are out on a limb, a limb that we are busily sawing off. We are becoming a sad joke, an object lesson in how not to behave towards China. If we are an example to others, it is an example of what to avoid.
There is, I regret to say, an element of truth in the Kassam and AFR assertions that the Australian nation is swinging behind the Government’s position. It is a measure of how far Australia has fallen under the influence of jingoistic false narratives promoted by the Murdoch press and its many imitators in mainstream media. Our elites are abandoning critical thinking. (See for example ‘Patience with Beijing finally runs out’, Philip Coorey, p 6 AFR 28-29 November )
Repeat anti-China propaganda often enough, from enough diverse sources, and it becomes embedded in the public mind. It may already be too late to stem the tide: economic decoupling from China may continue, and a significantly poorer Australia may finish up more firmly entrenched in the US-led Five Eyes Anglo-American strategic alliance.
Like King Canute defying the incoming tide, Australia is making a perfect fool of itself. Our producers, farmers, traders, and university educators – all of us in the end – are the losers. China has many other good options: it will be harder for us to find any.
Tony Kevin is a former Australian ambassador to Poland and Cambodia, and a member of the Emeritus Faculty at Australian National University. The author of Return to Moscow (2017), he has independently visited Russia six times since 2016. He has delivered lectures and taken part in academic conferences in the Moscow Diplomatic Academy and in Saint Petersburg on the outlook for Russia-Australia relations.
Comments
39 responses to “Natasha Kassam and the AFR have it wrong on China-Australia tensions”
Just admit it.
You committed inexcusable war crimes in an extremely unhumane way in Afganistan.
It’s horrifying those soilders have done and are still doing!
Stop being hypocritic.
You are just a nobody-country, stop making yourself a laughing stock!
You are merely a slave country of your master USA!
Just look at US human rights, and you dare to criticize it? NO!
Hi Paul. Like all the commentators on this post I am trying to work out what the Chinese game is. Australian primary producers take pride in their ability to export big quantities of good quality food, fibre and minerals to world markets at competitive prices but China is not responding to market forces as described in economics text books. China is the market force. I think they are trying to break Australia’s American alliance, thus removing an obstacle to regional hegemony. They are starving us into submission. This is not a matter of “face” or diplomatic Ps and Qs. This is serious.
Excellent piece. Wind it back a bit further and one will see just how patient China has been. First, Turnbull decides that he will use poor Mandarin to invoke Chairman Mao when his government banned Huawei. Insult #1. More recently, a senior government MP Andrew Hastie likened China to the German Nazis. #2. Then a far less senior but nonetheless shrill MP, George Christensen (also from the government benches) reinforced the Nazi description in July 2020. #3. For the best part of the first half of this year, the Australian government launched a bunch of anti-dumping actions aimed at Chinese imports. …. and that’s just a few examples.
Which could lead to a discussion of whether we are prepared to pay the price. I don’t think any pollie is willing to lead this discussion though.
We don’t have any choice but to pay the price. We may talk about wanting to decouple; China is actually doing it.
And in any case, who could ever trust the Chinese regime about anything? Treaties, free trade agreements mean nothing when inconvenient or when punishment is “required”. It’s not only Australia, though we are at present at the forefront. It will take a few years, but eventually China’s thuggishness will backfire.
How would you frame such a discussion? Are we not in fact having it?
That is the central point, Barney. It is not our choice.
Yes. Agreed.
It is a relief to know the Chinese don’t need us. So they won’t have to invade our shores. Surely their main concern about Australia was shared by the Japanese High Command 80 years ago. We are a base for American sea and air power. That is what this is all about. Commodities are neither here nor there. Europe, South America Africa and Russia can supply all China’s imports.
Military technology has moved on in the last 80 years. The US bases in Australia are irrelevant. The Armenians were recently blown apart by long distance drones. By the way the Indian sourced radar was useless for the Armenians. So much for the Indo/Quad and Five Eyes. You do realise that the PLA can hit Sydney with a nuclear missile? Dont think the Japanese Imperial Army had those in 1942.
“We are a base for American sea and air power.”, do you take pride from this???
Being a slave to America is glorifying to you?
I was looking at us from the Chinese point of view, Nigel, speculating on the reason for their current hostile behaviour. I do hope Trump pardons Snowden and Assange.
Well said Kevin.
But WHY are WE pulling the Tiger’s tail? Perhaps because the US feels challenged by China’s rise? The US has been used to bullying the world for a long time. When bullies are challenged they become aggressive, though they may not deliver. So the US is reacting very defensively to having its power challenged, and we, pathetic little sycophants, imitate our master.
Do we need to do this? Could we just acknowledge China’s power and imperfections, and the US’s power and imperfections, and step back from both? Malcolm Fraser advocated something like that.
We have aligned ourselves with plenty of other nasty regimes, such as Saudi Arabia. Our criterion is not the virtue of the regime but the preservation of the prerogatives of our own filthy rich, characterised as ‘our economic interests’.
This sycophantic alignment with the US, ratcheted up by John Howard, has been entirely counter-productive, exposing us to terrorism, nuclear threat, traumatised and now criminal soldiers, wholesale US interference in our domestic politics, and now a swat from the tiger’s paw. All the old parties are totally captured by this delusion.
The Aussie Gov is now happy being a slave of its Master US and going on a very wrong road without konwing!
Sir,
Unfortunately, those that say what “the powers that be” want to hear are considered loyal to the country while those who attempt to bring them to their senses are usually labelled as “apologists”. Historically, this is a common occurrence in a country in decline. It brings to mind the Qing (Ching) Empress Dowager Cixi who punished the progressives but surrounded herself with conservative sycophants. She imprisoned the young Emperor Guangxu who attempted to initiate reforms to modernise China. The spiral to the bottom happened very quickly and the country came to be labelled “the sick man of Asia” – an insult taken to heart by generations of Chinese people.
Another ridiculous recommendation by people who have little to offer but foolish advice is that Australia must start looking for alternative markets. There is an underlying assumption that Australian businesspeople have not been doing that all this time. Australia is a high wage and high production cost country. In this situation, those countries around the world that can afford Australian good are generally those in the Western world that compete with Australia for markets. Those that can afford to buy Australian, and have been doing so, are Japan, China, Korea and Singapore. China has a huge and growing middle class. Moreover, the Chinese trust the quality of our products.
The conservatives and hawks may find poking China in the eye satisfying; but do they really have anything useful to offer in their call for building an alternative market?
Sincerely,
Teow Loon Ti
A Slovenian MP who looks half sozzled has called on Slovenians to drink Aussie wine to sho those uppity Chinese. Slovenia has a population of 2.7 million. Its economy has been contracting annually since 2012 by about 0.8% of GDP a year. Its national debt to GDP ratio is highest in Europe at about 80%. Come to think of it they might be all hitting the grog. That will work.
Sir,
Slovenia is still suffering hangover from its Soviet Union days. A bottle or two of Australian wine might make it more business savvy.
Sincerely,
Teow Loon Ti
Scummo should not be sent ‘out for a loaf’. The man is completely skillless
Black Knight syndrome indeed! A comment this morning that our collapsing export market to China was not a problem in the face of a bumper grain harvest, because the countries that supplied China in our stead would need our barley and wheat. Watching the show of national unity in defence of our indefensible war crimes in Afghanistan was numbing, particularly in contrast to the calm and reasonable behaviour of Chinese officials. Whatever their own record on invading and occupying other countries, we should remember that on this it is they have the moral high ground, and they are justified in pointing it out to us. They could go further, pointing to the role of Uighur terrorists in Syria, or our apparent collaboration with those terrorist groups we use as pretext to pursue our own strategic interests at the expense of those countries’ inhabitants.
“Almost all Australians want to diversify away from the Chinese market, and trust in China has plummeted, according to the latest Lowy Institute Poll”. – This statement, sadly, is true simply due to the massive China bashing of the media since Dec2016 and their work has been largely sucessful. This action suits the purpose of winning an election and Australia becoming poorer. Reversal of perception for better relations would be difficult.
“She offers no data to support the claimed alternative markets for Australia. She is silent on the massive economic costs Australia now faces, as predicted on a worst-case scenario by a leading global bank CITI”. – The ball is now in Kassam’s court to take up the challenge in rebutting the allegations made by Tony Kevin, the elder diplomat.
I fully agree with this. And then China kicks a massive own goal by OFFICIALLY printing a totally unnecessary “photo” of an Australian soldier purportedly slitting the throat of an Afghan child. I would never have thought that China would permit itself to slide so deeply in the gutter.
Purportedly ???
It turely happened in Afganistan by those war criminals!
Well said Tony and good comments with the exception of poor Basil who quite makes your points. Morrison is such a fool. He was set up and took the bait, hook, line and sinker.
The sad thing is Albo did a me too, demonstrating he does not have what it takes. We are, to all intents and purposes, a one party state. In terms of his leadership this was an important test and he flunked it. He had an opportunity to show how inept Morrison is but chose instead to duck for cover.
I wonder, Mr Kevin, if, despite the obvious mistakes and ineptitude by Australia in its dealings with China, you would allow that China’s response has been a trifle unhinged and over the top. Hardly the behaviour of a country aspiring to be seen and respected as a major power…more like that of an insecure, rattled country that doesn’t really understand how to deal with countries like Australia that operate quite differently from China.
Sir,
I agree with you that it is over the top; but we don’t know. I suspect it is a calculated move to tell Australia that they are no longer interested in engaging with Australia.
Sincerely,
Teow Loon Ti
Basil, with respect … I think you are responding in exactly the way that has been portrayed to be the problem!
I think Basil makes an excellent point, ad it was good of Tony Kevin to reply to it. It is one thing to hold the view that Australia has acted unwisely in prodding the bear, it is quite another to believe that only supine and servile acquiescence will serve us or that everything is entirely our fault.
I think that Teow Loon Ti is right that China has decided it doesn’t need Australia, that it will diversify its markets away from us, and make us an object lesson to the world. This, however, is still a risky strategy as China faces many economic and political challenges of its own, however secure it looks from the outside. Many posters have observed that China has been engaged in fewer wars than other great powers, so why does it have the world’s largest army? Not to defend threats outside its borders, for there are none.
Barney your last comment is simply wrong. The PRC is ringed by approximately 400 US bases and two aircraft carrier fleets in the Pacic and Indian Oceans. The US has been constantly at war since the end of WWII. It is led by a certifiable lunatic and soon to be replaced by a senile warmonger. China shares a border with 22 countries, more than any nation on earth. Which also explains its military size. You think PRC doesnt feel threatened?
Nobody, including the US, is competent to invade China. Any war – God forbid – between the US and China would not involve a land invasion. China clearly wants sovereignty in the South China Sea (where I agree it has legitimate interests, just not sovereignty), but every other nation has a legitimate interest in making sure that the seaways are open. Even Australia has a vast amount of trade following that route.
Who do you think is a candidate to invade China. The Chinese army’s most important role, unlike its navy or airforce, is internal.
I think it’s a bit provocative to call Biden either senile or a warmonger. But we can agree that time will tell.
PS: you’ve referred a few times in posts to possible war between China and Australia. It seems to me that if China decides to escalate to war, it won’t be missiles or invasion, it will be things like destroying our power networks or whatever by its highly sophisticated cyber powers.
China has been invaded and bullied by Western Imperial powers. In history, there were many countries been invaded simply because they were not strong enough to defend themselves. Who are the invaders? Mostly Western superpowers. Is it a good enough reason?
Relationships evolve around management of response dynamics to provocation. Tit for tat (T4t) obviously is not a basis for strong relationships, neither is megaphone diplomacy. Australia expects to be respected for putting together a string of TTTTTTTTT and is thin skinned when it encounters a tat.
It may well gain respect within an anti-China cohort within the country and will be cheered on by the Western media machine.
I suggest that China has not been unhinged and know when it is being dis-respected with Australia and it will not win any media based war (one country with 1.3 billion people against 30 plus Anglo-European nations with population of just 700 million). It is not worth their effort as any response will become mangled to fit a pre-determined in the Western media machine.
Respect tends to follow a TT4t/T4tt pattern. I suggest Morrison was seizing his moment to be a hero, perhaps under instruction, and the Chinese decided that if words will not work, perhaps money will.
Basil, you have a good point to the extent that China has been ‘rattled’ indeed by Australia’s stunning turning its back on China in recent years . There is sharp Chinese disappointment at a broken friendship by a country China was beginning to trust . Recall the good vibes a few short years ago when Xi visited every state in Australia and addressed the Federal Parliament, back to back with Obama . We really were becoming China’s little mate then . China feels let down by repeated examples in recent years of Australian treachery and disloyalty to a friend, as they would see it. The Afghanistan cartoon , though unfortunate , can be understood in those terms. Australians need to make the effort now to see ourselves as China sees us, if we want to retrieve anything at all from this slow-motion disaster. Sadly, today’s AFR is once again full of vitriolic abuse of China – from Jennifer Hewett, Phillip Coorey , Tom
Switzer , and yet another lead editorial. We are not learning anything from this pain.
But Tony, surely you believe in a free press. It is what has allowed you a platform here (and other places), and you are able to argue against the AFR journalists. There is another country, part of this discussion, where disagreeing with the regime can be truly dangerous to your health.
As one who has lived and worked in China over a 40 year period I think I have a pretty good idea – probably more than most of those commenting here – of what drives China, and why they respond to issues involving countries like Australia the way they do. Australia has certainly made big mistakes in its relationship with China but that doesn’t justify the latter’s huge overreaction in responding to us. It’s going to be hard getting out of this mess and we need steady thinking here in Australia, certainly not silly comments like those above by Bruce Haigh who wants to see the issue in narrow domestic political terms.
China’s has been a vigorously defensive culture for thousands of years, defending the richest large patch of land on earth against wave after wave of rapacious invaders. Expect their defence to be hard-hitting.
A very accurate assessment. Australia’s economic future and the basis of our prosperity and comfort at home and abroad is coming into focus decoupled from Asia. The Chinese are leading the way and the rest will follow and that will be easy after all white people have been trying to tell Asia how it is and what to do for a very long time. We should have listened to Lee Kwuan Yu in the 60’s he gave us an Asian view, so did the head of Malaysia, several times. I think the Chinese and Asians generally have been remarkably patient with our lack of manners and insufferable smug Anglo-European centric view of life but no longer. We are what we now were becoming, ignorant expats stranded on a very large desert Island. China and Asia do not have to put us in our place, geography will do that and when we pine for home and the comfort of our past we will find a fractured and broken Europe slowly deflating into a modern form of medieval misery and a broken and collapsing America, armed dangerous and dysfunctional. I held the view, written before that we were on the wrong side of History, this will be not the Asian century but the Asian millenium. It is going to be very uncomfortable and it may take several hundred years for us to develop the ability to understand that the colour of our skin and historical banditry does not provide us with any rights or privilege at all. The tragedy? led by the nose into a blind alley by fools and liars incapable of thinking anything else but ‘ she’ll be right mate’ – well it won’t.
I agree with you Michael, up to your point about Europe. If you meant the dis-United Kingdom and its useless imperial longings (per John Major!), that is fine. In contrast, the EU ideal may be still in the making but it has been honourable and tries, with Russia (not mentioned by Morrison, nor Saudi Arabia!) and with China. Sycophancy to Trump has tarnished those (Morrison, Theresa May) who grovelled, and yes, America is collapsing. Morrison should look to NZ but the con artiste would rather die; Australian Chinese who’ve lived here, some for multiple generations, will suffer, thanks to the LNP and now the ALP. What a vile, narrow place to live in.
A bit hush on ourselves but spot on about a smug Anglo-European view of the world. Whatever happened to multi-cultural Australia?
I think Scott Morrison is simply out of his depth here. Scotty from sales is fast becoming a Willy Loman in his own lunchtime.
Australia recently joined the RCEP. Our PM then promptly flew off to Japan to weave a Maginot Line in the sky. I see that as little more than foolish posturing from out on a limb, while a State Visit by China’s Xi to Japan is, or so we are told, still on the horizon.
Japan is not burning its bridges. (Neither is South Korea.) Why are we?