If the past few months have been like a long-haul flight, Victorians are now standing in the aisles waiting for the cabin door to open, a little groggy and disoriented but relieved. They have every right to be. No other place in the world has tamed a second wave this large. Few have even come close.
Comparing different countries’ fights against COVID-19 is not a straightforward exercise, given differences in demography, geography, health system capability, and government strategy.
Perhaps most importantly, not every country has tried to get down to zero, or near zero, community transmission. This may not have been a realistic goal for countries with less border control than Australia.
Also, as Victorians understand acutely, the virus is unpredictable. Today, as the crisis accelerates in Europe and elsewhere, Victoria’s “zero new cases” are the envy of the world. But there can be no certainty about where things will be in a few months’ time.
All of this is to say that a favourable international comparison should not encourage complacency. But it is nevertheless true that Victoria’s efforts are notable on the world stage. The state’s success has warded off a significant human toll and further economic damage. As a result, Australia has a much better chance of returning to an approximation of “normal life” in the new year.
Victorians should be proud of these efforts, and the starkly different outcomes in countries that were in a similar position should reassure them that the efforts were worthwhile.
On August 5, Victoria’s seven-day average of daily new cases reached 533, the worst numbers seen anywhere in Australia.
Case numbers in several European countries began to accelerate steeply and are now much worse than ever. In contrast, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Singapore, and Australia have so far kept case numbers at a moderate level.
From a similar position to Victoria many countries lost control entirely.
But there is significant divergence even among these relatively stable countries. Sweden appears on track to replicate the sharp acceleration seen elsewhere in Europe. In Denmark and Japan, case numbers remain at a moderate level but are not trending towards zero. Only Victoria and Singapore, which peaked at about 300, have returned to single digits.
By suppressing their second waves, Victoria and Singapore are well placed to join a small club of countries that have sustained zero or near-zero cases, including New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam, China, and the rest of Australia. The dividend for these countries has been economic, not just health-related.
Countries with the worst death tolls have had the worst economic outcomes.
Victoria’s lockdown has been long and difficult, but it now occupies a rare and envious position. As Victorians await new freedoms on the next step towards COVID-normal, they should feel a sense of accomplishment.
Stephen Duckett is Director of the Health Program at the Grattan Institute. Tom Crowley is an Associate at the Grattan Institute. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article
PS See link below to how people like Josh Frydenberg have failed to understand the significance of what has been achieved.It was a ‘nasty’ and demeaning speech. John Menadue
Stephen Duckett, an economist, is an Honorary Enterprise Professor in General Practice and in Population and Global Health at the University of Melbourne, Chair of the Board of Eastern Melbourne Primary Health Network, and a member of the Strengthening Medicare task force.
Tom Crowley is an Associate at the Grattan Institute.
Comments
32 responses to “No one else in the world has tamed a second wave this large like Daniel Andrews (The Conversation Oct 26, 2020)”
How can anyone even speak of second or third waves when the testing for Covid is so flawed and 80% of those who test positive remain asymptomatic or generally unaffected? The real figures needed and never given are how many of those who test positive are actually sick in any way. So simply compare cases with mortality is dishonest.
The other question is why, when many other States, SA being one, just next door, with minimal lockdown, little or no masks, did so much better than Victoria.
Hear Hear Congratulations to Dan Andrew and team.
We should all learn that dealing with situation like pandemic or any other national disaster, we should all try to help with one heart and a non-partisan approach. We can criticize the policies but no blame game as we all are human. Even PM Morrison admitted that at one stage. The worse habit is “trial by media” by some of our so-called “independent media”. They should feel ashamed for doing that to Premier Andrews or Gladys Berejiklian or any other citizen. They have thrown our democratic principle ‘innocent till proven otherwise” out of the window. We have to give credit and praise to our GOVERNMENTS, Federal, States and Territories for doing such a magnificent job in this difficult times. All Australians have to work together for it to get back to normal again. With my best wishes.
.
And the Covid controversy rages on, and on…
Will the economy bounce back, or, perhaps more to the point, will small businesses bounce back?
No one has mentioned the school children locked out of their schools, and what might be the consequences of that.
Will the quite draconian powers granted to the police during the lockdowns be rescinded?
Will the social trust and cohesion necessary for a healthy society survive the “social distancing”, the fear?
Can we trust, really trust, the numbers?
Will we have an honest assessment of outsourcing, with specific attention to security issues (hotel quarantining) and retirement homes?
And saturating this controversy, cui bono?
One more point, slightly off-topic, but also very much on-topic: From the first time I discovered Pearls and Irritations, I have enjoyed the respectful controversy expressed by writers and by those in the comments section. The comments found attached to this article contain one whose vicious and vulgar ad hominem comments are lowering the standards of this site, and are completely unnecessary and unwelcome.
Dr Duckett:
Well done to Victorians.
But what was actually needed. A curfew? Lies? Ministers illegally directing officials – a la sports rorts?
Ignoring necessity makes the argument: the ends justifies ANY means.
Even without mentioning outbreak causes. Or the Commonwealth escaping responsibility for quarantine (Constitution) because of the apparent ego of Premiers (plural), ‘led’ by Victoria.
Meaning, among other things, the cause of this type of problem has not been addressed.
Recalling other Pearls posts on the Government excesses and arrogance – notably the Commonwealth re ‘national security’, flouting court orders, secret trials, detention etc – Victoria’s response, and failure to address ‘necessity’ is alarming.
Unless more is forthcoming, a walk of shame rather than Hollywood Harold’s backslapping machine is in order.
Regards
Hear ! Hear! Very well done Dan and fellow Victorians.
Mr Duckett is always very fond of an assertion. For example: “Countries with the worst death tolls have had the worst economic outcomes”. Sadly, he never supports those assertions with factual evidence that might allow the rest of us to evaluate them. And he is forever banging on about case numbers, as if these have nothing to do with the intensity of testing. I have no idea whether or not Mr Duckett, at some point in his career, took the Hippocratic Oath: “First do no harm”. But it appears not, or perhaps he had his fingers crossed at the time.
The focus on “case” numbers and blithely unacknowledged transition from death rates (which in most places declined over the northern summer) reveals the propagandistic nature of the narrative. Some articles even transition within a few paragraphs so that they emphasise the death numbers (fraudulently inflated and falsified as they are) then start talking cases about halfway down. Add to that the deliberate conflation of “cases” with “infections” and, worse still, making out positive test results to be “cases” and we have a deliberate gross mischaracterisation of the real situation. This apparently designed to promote the false idea that there is an ongoing mortal risk to the general public and a consequent need for the draconian lockdown measures.
Another element in this fraudulent portrayal of the virus is the focus on antibodies, specifically in relation to the apparent waning of such after people have been exposed to the virus. This anti-body discussion invariably omits to mention T-cell response and so masks existing community immunity residing in those previously exposed to a similar infectious agent and then falsely implies that because antibodies diminish this automatically means long term immunity is not possible.
For the sake of eliminating the spread of a virus that has about the same death rate as a bad seasonal flu (0.14% IFR) and a 99.86% recovery rate, the Victorian economy has been devastated and the health of its people put in jeopardy through denial of medical care for those with cancer, heart problems and other long term diseases for which screening services have been either deferred or cancelled en-mass. Add to that the reduction in physical fitness of the general population through cancellation of team sports, gym closures and restriction of overall physical activity. Then add the reduction in natural cross immunity of people to all sorts of other naturally occurring but ordinarily benign pathogens through enforced social isolation, obsessive hygiene and lack of personal contact. Then add the psychological effects of social isolation, fear based exaggeration of the dangers and the casting of other people as mortal dangers. Then add the cruel isolation of the elderly and dying who where effectively imprisoned without regard for their personal wishes or rights and denied social contact from family and friends in their final days and hours. Then add the unleashing of a militarised police who were given license to assault and arrest citizens (including false arrest of at least one journalist) who deigned to protest this draconian regime and exercise of unrestrained excess of power. Add then the destruction of thousands of businesses and livelihoods, including the psychological distress and financial devastation inflicted on business owners and their employees and families. If this is victory, it is a Pyrrhic one indeed!
…IF IT’S ON TV IT’S TRUE…
Late at night when it’s nice and quiet
You might see the News Readers’ eyes go white
But don’t be frightened and don’t take flight
It’s only a Talking-head seeing the light
From the devil that lives in the autocue:
The Victorian Premier is a hero and should be acknowledged as such by Parliament, which is not likely to happen because of adversarial politics.
This is a nicely nuanced piece by Stephen Duckett and Tom Crowley shining the light of reason and hope into the untidy politicking we all saw in the Federal Parliament yesterday. There is a place for politics, but not where it clouds good policy and risks people’s lives. This piece reflects extremely well on the Grattan Institute as well as its authors.
Without intelligent reserve, “brains”, decency, detachment, some such as the so-called treasurer, a patron of donors and bumboys, have mourned the loss of profiteering opportunities and seem not to notice the D Andrews have done better in administration, by hard work, duty, consistency, by expert advice from professionals, than anyone else in Australia and possibly the world. There are staggering rates, awful, deadly, in so many parts, often governed by defective loudmouthed males of no ability. Australia has some in a leached out conservative grouping, Those in executive positions who fail duty, whose actions lead to death and misery, are actually executive murderers, thieves, slaggards; this applies to many leaders of large nations or states, also to corporate chiefs. Frydenberg’s narrow incrowd, selective, ineffective budget shows he should be colouring in some more economics books and doing remedial work on civilised behaviour.
A ‘second wave’ could have been avoided if not from the pressures from the commercial interests – including the mainstream media – and the political ones – including the mainstream media.
The Victorian Opposition has made a disasterous situation worse by its intransigence, aided and abetted by the Commonwealth right wing government and supporters.
Freydenburg’s confected outrage yesterday is just one example of the deliberate politicising of the pandemic for personal and Partisan gain.
They have no shame.
I will add to this that the WA opposition and business interests condemned the strict measures imposed by the State Government, changed their tune when the actions proved to be highly beneficital, and are once again complaining as if there is nothing to justify the strict border controls still in place.
“Money, money, money…” – never mind if lots of people get sick, chronically ill and/or die in the process of maintaining an economic system which was already on its knees before the arrival of the SARs-Cov19 virus around the world.
Dan Andrews has done a magnificent job protecting Victorians and indeed all Australians from COVID-19. It was done with the enormous sacrifice by Victorian citizens who believed the experienced medical scientists rather than the ignorant Federal & Victorian COALition politicians singing from the Murdoch Media-ocrity song-sheet. Thank you Dan Andrews and the medical people responsible for this marvellous result to date.
“All of this is to say that a favourable international comparison should not encourage complacency. But it is nevertheless true that Victoria’s efforts are notable on the world stage. The state’s success has warded off a significant human toll and further economic damage.”
More than this, what has happened in Victoria is on the verge of proving to the whole world that a virus elimination strategy can still work, even if daily new infection cases are in the hundreds. Victoria has gone from highs that until recently wouldn’t have looked out of place in Europe, to stats that should be the envy of the world. No other jurisdiction has managed to reduce case numbers in such a dramatic fashion.
Now if only Frydenberg and the other drones in the Coalition would shut up about it, they might avoid further embarrassment to themselves and their government.
Seems Dan Andrews has some fans, people who are suckered into the
pandemic narrative and applaud the violent and extra-legal fascist
police state regime instituted in Victoria to combat it.
“Seems…”
Have you not noticed the surveys which indicate overwhelming support for the Victorian Government’s restrictions?
Have you not noticed the infections and deaths occurring in the USofA where there has been so much hue and cry against “Restrictions on our freedoms”?
Have you not considered the economic and social advantages which Western Australians now enjoy thanks to rapid and very strict measures in the early stages?
And have you not noticed that the jurestrictions where the highest infection rates occured now have the worst economic conditions developing?
“Seems” to me that you are either, at best, a self opinionated troll or a purveyor of deliberately concocted attempts at spreading alarm and despondency.
In these surveys we see the Stockholm syndrome in full force. As to the death rates in the USA, well as 94% involved people with serious co-morbidities while vast numbers were were falsely classified as Covid deaths when they only died with Covid. Additionally, it seems that many of those who died (both of Covid and with Covid) were killed by the State moving patients with Covid symptoms into care homes. Similar circumstances surround the UK death statistics. Talking of Stockholm, it is notable that the deaths rates recorded in Sweden (where there was no lockdown and no masking) were no worse than those in the UK and remarkably are now near zero and have been since at least July.
The best WA (and NZ and seemingly now Vic) can boast of is that they eliminated the possibility for community acquired immunity to the disease and have now put themselves in the position of risking a succession of further outbreaks in the consequently now larger than it would have been non-immune section of the community, for which the only way out is the availability of a vaccine — something which may nor may not be along in the next 12 – 18 months. In the meantime, the tourist and foreign student industries have been, and will remain, largely devastated.
I think “community acquired immunity” is still a figment of some neo-liberal’s (or perhaps Swede’s) imagination, Antip.
Community acquired immunity is the process that has served species in the natural world for least 4 billion years. Community immunity is what has occurred as a result of virtually every epidemic and pandemic in history – that is how species adapt to pathogens. The later day rewriting of science and history to promote figmentary idea that this is not how it works is a marketing ploy of the pharmaceutical companies – the people with vested interests in selling their products and who disparage both the idea that the community can build immunity any other way and that there things people can do to build their immune systems (such as sunlight, exercise, vitamins (specifically D) and a healthy diet) and other treatments that can aid recovery (ergo the shameless attack on HCQ efficacy using rigged “studies” reportedly involving lethal doses of the drug and which were later withdrawn).
While vaccines have been credited with curing diseases such as polio the real situation is less definitive. For instance, it is obvious from a few minutes research that the US polio epidemic of the 1950s was largely over by 1957 when the vaccine was released to the public (refer https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/salk-announces-polio-vaccine). In fact, you can clearly see in the graph at https://ourworldindata.org/polio that from the peak of 57,879 case in 1952, the case incidence had already dropped precipitously to 15,140 in 1956 and 5,485 in 1957. Contrary to the big-pharma spin, in the past few years the polio vaccine itself is reported to have been the cause of epidemics in some seven countries, including Somalia (refer http://polioeradication.org/where-we-work/somalia/).
Polio lingers on and a watchful eye will always be needed, see https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03045-2
And no one in the world botched hotel quarantine on the scale, and with the serious consequences, as the Andrews government did.
Ignorant, half trained people, led by profiteering deliberate filth, let D Andrews down, by treachery and stupidity. Typing pigs cannot think straight , nor honestly.
And I thought that it was the hotel who employed the manager who was responsible for the transmission… Gosh, Mr Andrews must get around 😉
Basil: behind your comment lie intricate and extremely important questions, with different views leading to praise/scorn of various parties. That is: responsible to whom? In the case of quarantine guards, they are responsible to their companies. The companies to the Department which let the contract. The Department to the Minister. The Minister to the Premier. And the Premier to the Prime Minister because it was only by the Prime Minister’s action that the States undertook quarantine functions. Quarantine is a responsibility of the Commonwealth to the people (Constitution). To me one question is: how deeply should those up the chain check on the performance of those one step below? Presumably this depends on views of the competence of those involved, risks and consequences of failure and whether there is any hint of on-the-ground failure. In the case of the Ruby Princess the hint came too late for the Commonwealth to check and remediate, and thus responsibility to the public lies with the State Government. Here? Regards
Petal, it’s a systemic failure of governance that led to the botched hotel quarantine and for that the Vic. Government must take responsibility.
Basil: subject to the outcome of the inquiry, that appears to be correct.
the jadebeagle pointed to this likelihood in may and july.
that said, at some point the Commonwealth – which cannot avoid its actual responsibility for quarantine, should or did become aware of the failure (even a dog could see it). when it did, it should have exercised its quarantine duty in a different way e,g, send in troops (which is likely permitted) or remove this function from Victoria.
as is the case with probably illegal border closures, it chose to do……nothing.
leaving State Governments open to electoral consequences, inducing them to proselytize their electorates including through divisive rhetoric and general bullshit and fabrications. the Commonwealth abdication of responsibility creates the likelihood of recurrence of national governance failures, perhaps not in quarantine but elsewhere – a likelihood increased by its ‘success’.
it also lays groundwork for further grabs for ’emergency power’ by the Minister for Home Affairs etc.
that Mr Andrews, and other Premiers, fell for this reflects poorly on their ability to govern in our Federation – confirmed by questions about their honesty and health & economic results – if not by their defective health etc. governance.
regards
And what were you doing early in the pandemic, Basil?
IF it’s at all relevant, I was minding my own business. I certainly wasn’t botching hotel quarantine.