It is yet to be seen if Australia’s establishment will come to repair its diplomatic relationship with China anytime soon in order to avoid losing 39 percent of our export income and adding one million workers to the unemployment queues.
The China import ban and economic coercion narratives seem to be riddled by factual inaccuracies. Morrison’s adversarial bluster about ‘not trading our values’ and DFAT being ‘coy’ about revealing the ‘magnitude’ of the import ban warrants our examination of the exports’ figures.
The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) states that 1 in 5 jobs are foreign trade-related jobs (2,554,780 jobs approximately), and 2 in 5 foreign trade-related Jobs are dependent on trade with China (1,021,912 jobs approximately). The DFAT’s exports data from 2005 to September 2020 shows that Australian yearly exports to China increased significantly from 18bn dollars (11.9%) in 2005/06 to 150bn dollars (39.4%) in 2019/20, which makes China our largest export market for goods and services and a growing source of foreign investment.
The first three quarters of 2020 show that growth in exports to China was -9.1%, 20.3%, -12.6% while growth in exports to the rest of the world was -4.12%, -12.8%, -0.01%. Hence, the cumulative growth decline in exports in the first three quarters of 2020 was -1.5% to China and -16.9% to the rest of the world. However, the changes from one quarter to the next may not explain seasonality in exports.
This is why we compute year over year growth in exports so as to compare each quarter this year to the same quarter last year. The five-year over year growth in our exports from the third quarter in 2019 to the third quarter in 2020 clearly show that exports to China (37.5%, 10%, 5.2%, 0.6%, -12.7%) were always more robust than our exports to the rest of the world (4.1%, 1.1%, -0.6%, -16.0%, -18.2%).
The year over year growth in the second quarter of 2020 (just before the claims of an import ban were made) shows that exports to China increased by 0.6%, while the growth in exports to the rest of the world declined by -16.0%. Whereas the year over year growth in the third quarter of 2020 (after the claims of an import ban were made) shows that exports declined by -12.7% to China and by -18.2% to the rest of the world. If the -12.7% decline in exports to China in the third quarter is interpreted as an import ban, then how should the -18.2% decline in our exports to the rest of the world be interpreted?
A number of exports were identified as targets of the import ban, but the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has been reticent to reveal how significant or insignificant these bans were to our overall exports to China. The exports in jeopardy of the (probable?) import ban are as follows (FY 2019-20 figures): Beef 2.8bn (1.89%), Crustaceans 611m (0.41%), Wheat 567m (0.38%), Barley 550m (0.37%), Sugars 99m (0.07%), Alcohol 1.1bn (0.74%), Wood 1.2bn (0.85%), Wool 1.9bn (1.29%) and Copper Ores & Concentrates 2.4bn (1.59%). Together, they represent 7.58% (11.4bn) of the 150.5bn total exports to China and 2.99% of our total 381.9bn exports.
Meanwhile, the three major (‘high-value’) exports of Iron Ore 84.8bn (56.34%), Coal 13.9bn (9.24%) and Natural Gas 15.7bn (10.48%) represent 76.1% (114.5bn) of our total exports to China and 30.0% of all our exports. In essence, China imports 82.9% of all our Iron Ore exports, 25.3% of all our Coal exports, and 33.1% of all our Natural Gas exports, which may offer some comfort in the short to medium term.
The political response to the China imports ban is at best ambiguous with the usual diversionary tactics. It seems that our establishment is only focused on high-value exports, given their importance to the economy and employment. It is also important to note the undue influence of the key players from these high-value sectors (lobbying, political donations, unseating three prime ministers, etc) compared to the low-value ones.
Morrison has maintained that judgments on trading with China “are not decisions that governments make for businesses”. He is conveniently distancing himself from any responsibility for the economic fall-out with China, despite making it clear that Australia will not trade its values to justify why his government will not back down on its position regarding the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan.
It is rather a stretch for Morrison to claim the moral high ground with China when many of our other trading partners are not particularly the epitome of democracy, nor do they have spotless human rights records. The number of our trading partners that are worse than China in terms of Human Rights and Economic Freedom comprises 80 countries according to the conservative Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index, and 36 countries according to the libertarian Cato Institute’s Human Freedom Index. So, if we are trading with all those countries that are worse than China, then are we NOT trading our values with them?
The Australian political elites’ deliberate stunts in stoking public fears about the threat of China as a rising geopolitical ‘adversary’ are only poor diversions from the daily struggles of the Australian people: unemployment; rising food, energy and property prices; high consumer debt; budgetary cuts to government spending on health, education, and infrastructure.
The ‘China Import Ban’, ‘Economic Coercion’ and ‘China threat’ narratives serve two primary objectives. Firstly, to redirect the anger of the population for widening socioeconomic inequality in Australia. Secondly, to prompt collective societal support for U.S. foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific, which has been reframed as a war against the insecurities fomented by China’s geopolitical ambitions and unfair advantage in international trade and globalization.
One thing is certain that there is a growing rift between the ‘chest-beating’ ideologues to appease a dysfunctional U.S. ‘leadership’ of world affairs and the pragmatists in the Coalition Government about our trade relationship with China. And, while the pragmatic common sense of the Australian people often prevails over ‘provincial’ loyalties, it is yet to be seen if Australia’s establishment will come to repair its diplomatic relationship with China anytime soon in order to avoid losing 39 percent of our export income and adding one million workers to the unemployment queues.
George Mickhail is an LSE trained academic and a geopolitical risk analyst with 30 years’ experience in major global accounting firms and business schools. His research focuses on MetaCapitalism and mapping the geopolitical threats of global financial networks. He comments regularly on political economic affairs and his research is cited in the media.
Comments
81 responses to “The China Import Ban:The disturbing facts and figures.”
Jeffa
thank you for list of US and AustraIian “values”
we should add specific Australian items to be proud of:
Timor Leste (Downer, Howard)
mistreatment of refugees (Howard, Dutton)
treatment of first nations (since occupation by British)
neoliberal destruction of egalitarian community
corruption of military (copy US military behaviour)
corruption of democratic federal government (Abbott, etc)
Great article but already out of date. So we since it is clear that yesterday we had lost 7.58% of our total exports to China, this morning that has more than doubled with the loss of coal.
I expect we will be given 30 days to digest this news before China switched off natural gas exports. Which given they have a friendly neighbour to their immediate north, with lots of gas and with exports to Europe under threat from the USA, it surprises me that China is still buying any gas from us.
So this morning we have lost 16.6% of our exports to China and by this time next month it will be closer to 30%.
Also not included is the loss of tertiary sector revenue via loss of international students and tourists.
When the PRC blocks our wool exports watch the NFF change its LNP tune. That mob of Canberra pretenders are only good for attacking maritime unions and workers wages and conditions. They have been riding on the backs of farmers for years.
That’s true Janet, but the key thing is our response. It seems you want appeasement, to which I suggest there will be no end. I want us to find other markets. I know that’s easier said than done, but I suggest we have no choice for a long-term future. All this has come as Man Lee said, though Tl thinks otherwise, because of China’s desire to punish Australia. If you don’t want to crawl to China, what do you suggest?
It may be that we were stupid not to see this coming, because China was never going to tolerate what it regards as Australian intransigence and has decided to make an example of us pour encourager les autres. But we didn’t, and now we have to live with it.
Sadly Barney I am much more pessimistic about other markets. Essentially we export raw minerals and agricultural products plus services.
The growth in minerals exports assumes massive economic growth so where in the world could there be such growth. Of the 20 largest nations on earth, Japan and South Korea are already close to maximum capacity and scope for expansion small, especially given their relatively small geographic size. The USA, Russia, Brazil and Nigeria have their own resources and will not want ours. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, DRC (also has its own resources) and the Phillipines are not strong economically and are not likely to be strong markets in the near future. Mexico is closer to USA and Brazilian resources.
Of the ten largest countries that leaves India and Indonesia. Now I have much less hope for the Indian market than meany, since it is such a poverty stricken nation and probably more serious very divided with Hindu/Muslim conflict such a few steps away, not to mention troubles in Kashmir and even ongoing Maoist rebellion in some areas. Now in terms of Indonesia, a large nation very close to us with a hostile religion and a military larger than our own. we would probably not be wise to send too much iron ore at a low price if it is used to create military infrastructure. In any case Indonesia has its own resources.
Of the ten much smaller nations (still in top 20) I cannot see Egypt, Turkey, or Iran as suddenly becoming our besties,
So that leaves Germany and the rest of the EU, Vietnam and Thailand. Exports to these nations may help but no where near enough to make up for China.
Now in terms of agricultural exports the picture is a little brighter possibly and Indonesia and perhaps India might fill the holes. Even poor nations need food stuffs and raw materials for manufacturing. So I guess for some commodities we may be OK. I think beef will be in serious trouble.
For services we had better start cosying up to Europe.
Just a point regarding Philippines Australia trade. Philippines trade currently ranks 19 in terms of size regarding trade for Australa. The Philippines growth rates post-covid are predicted to be in the 5%-6% GDP growth range. The trade agreement we have with the Philippines is the oldest we have in Asia. If there is a leader more dismissive of Australia than Xi its Duterte. It kicked off even before Duterte’s election with the then Australian Ambassador criticizing Duterte over a tasteless joke made in the Presidential election campaign. Yes another cartoon dispute. Basically social media was shut down due to the heavy traffic of anti-Australian commentary against Australia from Filipinos in response. We backed the Aquino clan and the Catholic Church against Duterte. Another bad bet gone disasterously wrong. Duterte didnt even show up at the ASEAN-Australia summit. Duterte has signed a number of agreements with PRC and Putin will be visiting the Philippines with the Russian Navy to sign security and trade deals next year. So put a line through any expansion of trade with another 100 million plus population Asian country. Duterte’s popularity rating is currently running at 91%. In Mindanao its 96%.
Bjt have you ever been to The Philippines and chatted with locals? I have, and the opinion they have of whitey still vastly outcompetes the opinion they have of chinese. The tourists from china are disgusting, self centred, self serving and completely ignorant of their surroundings, they show naught but arrogance. And duterte was popular until he started murdering innocent kids and labelling them drug dealers, many broken families in Philippines because of this. I could give you some stats from areas where Trump has 100% support, but even i wouldn’t believe those as stats are easy to manipulate into a preferred message. Only real world experiences count, they are the actual truth.
Yes i have been and am going back and am in daily contact. Duterte has murdered nobody especially kids. I could ask u for any evidence but i expect you would waste my time with Human Rights Watch. This is the latest poll from Pulse. This survey was conducted around Manila. Duterte’s popularity is even higher in Mindanao. Ever been to Mindanao champ? I suggest with your prejudice and lies about Duterte its probably best you dont drop in and have a chat with the locals as you put it.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-idUSKBN26Q0YK
As for your comments on Chinese tourists i dont waste my time debating with racists.
Then why waste your time inserting into threads on global times, a place where rabid nationalism is the norm?
Just because Duterte didn’t actually pull the trigger doesn’t make him innocent, he gave open permission for murders to occur and refused to investigate claims of wrongful killing, all while smiling.
Polls can be manipulated to say just about anything with selection of respondents and cleverly worded questions. I’ll take personally conveyed anecdotes and opinions over published polls as a preferred source of information. Reuters didnt even bother to publish the poll questions, do you know how they were worded?
Champ my time is my own and none of your business. So you have no evidence regarding Duterte’s alleged criminality apart from a few yarns in the bars of Angeles. That should go well in the ICC.
The poll questions are here
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/758994/92-of-pinoys-believe-duterte-has-done-well-in-preventing-covid-19-spread-pulse-asia/story/
Duterte’s populatrity rating in Mindanao was 98%. Now i know many Mindanawans and that is accurate. Class D citizens (about 60% of the population) also gave the President a 98% rating. Sadly the socialites of Manila dont seem to have been polled. Come on down to the Sarangani sometime and check out the support for Duterte.
Thanks for the invite, I’ll wait until all the travel warnings disappear before heading down that way.
But seriously, I hope everyone is safe from the earthquake. Take care my friend.
Banjo Patterson is often regarded as fairly apolitical but in his Future Song published in the Bulletin in 1891, he concluded that we have no song but more alarmingly, we have no singer. Its not just Morrison et al but the entire political spectrum in Australia–no future song here! China is not the problem. We are like the Blind Men and the Elephant in the Hindu parable. Cocooned in our own ignorance. Truly a stranded nation. A great article George.
The main stream media are hoping that Biden will reset the US relationship with China. And so he probably will, but what will that mean for Australia? Any US resetting will probably be at Australia’s expense! At the political level Australia’s relationship with China has been immature for a long time; from buddy buddy Ozies to blatantly disrespectful.
We must suffer the consequences of a generation of inept political leaders.
Our chance to reset the China relationship will come with the demise of Scott Morrison and the election of a new government. But even then the Labour party has a lot to do in preparation.
Peter, what do you have in mind when you say blatantly disrespectful? I’ve referred to China’s attitude to us above in my reply to Anthony. In what way are we comparable? I can’t agree that asking for an independent inquiry into coronavirus is disrespectful, as many here have argued, but I can certainly agree we should not have run ahead on our own, so that it was perhaps unwise. China’s latest blatant disrespect and stupidity? The virus entered China on Australian steaks. Have you anything else in mind?
Barney, Whilst it is appropriate for Australians on a personal, cultural or business basis to be as friendly as they wish with China, particularly business people as they are very adept at assessing risk, on a political and diplomatic level we should be very much more nuanced.
Because our politicians are more adept at tomorrow’s media headline rather than a long term stratergy, – in the eyes of most Asians we are seen as incompetent jerks at the best and lappys for Uncle Sam at the worst.
In recent times we have fallen over backwards to sell the Port of Darwin to the Chinese and now we won’t let them buy the corner fish and chip shop, so to speak. We should start to look at Asia, including China, through Asian eyes rather the five eyes! Our style is very confronting and we must do better if we are to live in Asia.
Thanks for your reply, Peter. Do you think it is all Asians that find our style confronting? We’ve certainly had our difficulties with Japan (but so did everyone else at the time) and Indonesia, eg 1999, but these were not trade-related. Singapore and Malaysia have both been terse at times. But I can’t think of any Asian country that treats us as China does.
I think we have learnt a lot about dealing with Asia in the past 30 years. Have we a lot more to learn? Very probably. Do you not agree to any extent that China’s attitude has changed, and that is is they who have chosen to cement the breakdown while we have flapped at the margins?
Mr Wartz, as Peter Small said “not all Asian”.
YES Asians generally do find “our style confronting”. Our attitudes are often generously sprinkled with “me” and “I”, while largely anemic in “we”.
Many more Asians regard Australia’s colonial impulses with apprehensive suspicion.
Especially, after President George W Bush badged Australia as US Deputy Sheriff in 2003 and PM Howard gleamed the honour with great pride.
The “confronting style” and apprehensive suspicion is even more pronounce today with Canberra’s rueful display of chest beatings in apparent lock-step walking-talking the Washington narrative.
Asian cultural sensibility are generally too polite to tell Australians what they think. However, there was one exceptional case back in the 1980s. Frustrations pushed Singapore’s Prime Minster Lee Kuan Yew to say-as-he-saw-it by paying Australia with an over-blown and highly offensive compliment: “The White Trash of Asia”.
Frustrated with Canberra’s 5 years of “confronting style” by continuously poking the dragon in the eye, just 3 months ago, a Chinese newspaper reminded Canberra that awfully offensive compliment.
Barney in answer to your questions.
I cannot say all Asians, but all that I know find our lack of interest in Asian history language and culture worrying. It was Malcolm Turnbull in one of his better moments who reminded us that China had done possibly more in saving us from Japanese invasion during the second world war than the US by holding Japan down to the north.
Knowing that why would Scot Morrison rush off to Japan a few weeks ago to sign a defense treaty when he was pretending to try and salvage our relationship with China. I think that answers your second question. It is we who have changed and China is responding to events.
Well, I certainly can’t claim Australia has been faultless. But we’re just going to have to differ, I imagine, because in my view China has been truculent, bullying and dishonourable, simply ignoring treaties. If you want to reply that other countries do the same, a common theme here, I say that may well be true but doesn’t exculpate China.
We could do the same thing, by imposing quotas on iron ore and driving up the price further, but – as I said elsewhere – that would be petulant and immature. We ought not to follow China down that road.
I am very pleased Morrison is looking to other alliances; we are going to need them. Everyone who posts here agrees we cannot rely on the US, and we probably can’t rely on anyone. But, as a boss of mine told me 30 years ago, “you have to make yourself too prickly to swallow”. China is not going to be impressed by any appeasement, it will just go harder. As the US has learned, you don’t just get your way by being the gorilla in the room, and China will have to learn that too.
Barney, I don’t disagree with you. My original comment was trying to make the point that we have gone from being overtly pally with China to unreasonably antagonistic. All the time China has had long term strategic plan I would suggest. I argue for Australia to be more nuanced, respectful and probably cautious in all our relationships. With a long term strategic goal in our nations interests rather than running from one media event to the next.
OK, we have reached a point of amity. Well done, both of us.
Barney. Hear Hear and three cheers for John Menadue for providing such a forum for a robust and informed debate.
We should start to look at Asia through our own eyes.
“I can’t agree that asking for an independent inquiry into coronavirus is disrespectful”
Mr Wartz, below are some facts. However, if you prefer not to read them all, just jump to the last paragraphs.
1. Between March 16 and March 30, Trump used the expression “Chinese virus” more than 20 times. It’s no secretly, Trump was, and still is, blaming China for the origin of Covid-19.
https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-chinese-virus-the-politics-of-naming-136796
2. On Sunday April 19th, Australian Defence Minister Marise Payne called for “a global inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, including China’s handling of the initial outbreak in the city of Wuhan”
Was Payne talking in lock step with Trump in blaming China?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-19/payne-calls-for-inquiry-china-handling-of-coronavirus-covid-19/12162968
3. Three days later on April 22nd, the ABC reported
“Prime Minister Scott Morrison is seeking to build an international coalition to give the World Health Organisation (WHO) — or another body — powers equivalent to those of a weapons inspector to avoid another catastrophic pandemic.
Mr Morrison has pitched the proposal to several world leaders in recent days, including United States President Donald Trump, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-22/morrison-to-push-for-anti-pandemic-inspection-powers/12173806
No only did the Prime Minister not water down his Defence Minister’s provocative remarks, ScoMo added fuel to the fire by proposing “weapons inspector” style investigation into China’s handling of the coronavirus.
These comments by the Prime Minister and Defence Minister, and many others, were clearly aimed at China.
The proposed scientific inquiry can hardly be “independent” if the target has already been picked, a western alliance lobbied, political objectives predetermined and conclusions pre-empted – the “Chinese virus”.
Lastly, this is piece of news below (dated December 1st, 2020) is hardly worth reporting in Australia. Apparently, most Australian media outlets just ignored this report.
Study Suggests Covid-19 Was In The U.S. Weeks Earlier Than Thought, Before First Public Cases In China
US CDC analysis of 7,389 blood samples from American Red Cross blood donors in
California
Connecticut
Iowa
Massachusettes
Michigan
Oregon
Rhode Island
Washington, and
Wisconsin
were tested at the CDC and 106 samples were found to contain anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies dating back to December 2019 – BEFORE the first public cases in China.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2020/12/01/study-suggests-covid-19-was-in-the-us-weeks-earlier-than-thought-before-first-public-cases-in-china/?sh=da5bf264bf8c
Perhaps ScoMo and Payne should now press Washington for “weapons inspector” style investigation into the American origin of coronavirus?
Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations to identify SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies: December 2019-January 2020
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472
Study Suggests Possible New COVID-19 Timeline in the U.S.
https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/press-release/2020/study-suggests-possible-new-covid-19-timeline-in-the-us.html
If the coronavirus did not begin in Wuhan, a properly constituted and properly independent inquiry should certainly discover that. I still think we need that inquiry, and China and others can present evidence, and the inquiry can demand answers of the US – as it should. My fear, from what I have read, is that China has carefully destroyed most of the evidence inside China.
Yes Barney but such an inquiry should not be led by those hostile to China or any other country. An inquiry by genuinely independent academics/scientists etc certainly is what was needed and had we called for that it would have been a diplomatic win for Australia. Indeed with our super top performance on COVID, I think us Aussias plus Kiwis would have been ideal leaders of such an Inquiry. Throw in Taiwan and Singapore of course, plus the people who managed Wuhan so well once the infection was discovered.
Instead we followed the Trump/Fox/Bannon meme which blamed China. What is more serious is that even back in February/March there was significant evidence that suggested the virus did not (or at least may not) have originated in China or at least not in Wuhan. This was ignored in preference for a poodle like yapping at the heels of the USA.
This behaviour demeaned Australia, seriously damaged our relations with a major trading partner for which we are now being punished.
I think we agree, especially on your first paragraph.
There is a scientific inquiry now underway by scientists under the auspices of the WHO, out of the hands of politicians, to establish science-based facts.
There was a scientific inquiry carried out by a group of world renown virologists who went into Wuhan in February 2020, during the height of the outbreak, and published a scientific report. See link to report below.
https://reliefweb.int/report/china/report-who-china-joint-mission-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19
The Joint Mission consisted of 25 national and international experts from Germany, Japan, Korea, Nigeria, Russia, Singapore, US, China and the WHO, headed by Dr Bruce Aylward, a world renown Canadian virologist.
As you’d know, there is no shortage propaganda, misinformation, disinformation and outright blatant lies in our “free and independent” but neutrality deficient Australian media.
Australian media simply choose not to report, downgrade, bury one of the most significant forensic serology investigations on coronavirus by the US CDC on December 1st which factually confirmed that covid-19 was present in the US BEFORE the first reported case China.
This is the equivalent of Iraq’s WMD. Instead of finding the “WMD” in China, the US CDC found the “WMD” in America’s backyard. An inconvenient truth that undermined and shattered the Washington-led “Chinese virus” narrative.
While this CDC finding was reported in a number of US media outlets, a quick Google search and searches for this specific CDC report in our ABC and BBC’s archives came up empty. Perhaps I need a better search engine and longer shovel?
A simple acknowledgement would be nice – from Washington, London and Canberra, and people like yourself, that western powers, our governments f#@ked-up big time launching a global campaign accusing China for the Chinese origin of Covid-19.
Now what about your fear of what you read about “China has carefully destroyed most of the evidence inside China”?
Propaganda 101?
Maybe, Jeffa. I can only go by what I read, and I try to read as widely as possible – one of the reasons you find me on this website. And of course the same is true for you – you can only read widely and try to discern.
I don’t trust the WHO because it was in China’s pocket in December and January. As I wrote above, I want a genuinely independent inquiry, and I agree it should cover all the points you raise, along with other concerns.
Is that an acknowledgement that
“Washington, London and Canberra, and people like yourself, that western powers, our governments f#@ked-up big time launching a global campaign accusing China for the
Chinese origin of Covid-19”?
Or is the “don’t trust the WHO” just a digged-in begrudging refusal to acknowledge evidence-based facts?
Not quite, Jeffa. I understand your enthusiasm, but let’s hold the horses until we get the inquiry. If ever.
Thank you George. I’m leaving some links to Aussie (now US citizen) John Helmers website. John lives in Moscow. Both articles are China related, even though John mainly does Russia. Everyone should read, might learn some info they were not aware of.
http://johnhelmer.net/the-australian-chewing-gum-is-now-on-the-russian-shoe-australian-minister-asks-lavrov-to-save-exports-from-chinese-sanctions-lavrov-asks-for-australian-support-to-stop-fake-mh17-evidence-in/
http://johnhelmer.net/truth-vaccine-kills-australian-american-campaign-against-china-in-world-health-organisation-debate/
Cheers.
Thanks for the links. So Marisa got on the blower to Lavrov. Australia coal exports are finished with the PRC and they are increasing their imports from Russia. That call went well then.
The writer maintains that Morrison has made it clear that ‘Australia will not trade its values to justify why his government will not back down on its position regarding the South China Sea, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan.’ But what are these values exactly? To me it seems they are a determination to lie and distort the facts regarding these four issues.
I have followed these stories in the media since their inception, and have done considerable background research along the way, and been heartened by others who have done the same and published narratives closer to the facts than appears in the mainstream media or is being voiced by various Australian politicians. Yet, despite this, these four issues, along with others, are endlessly recycled as if they are the unassailable truth, when in fact they are a product of opinion and speculation.
So what values are we upholding or protecting here? And why?
Let us know when you find out what those values are, I’m wondering myself.
Just in regard to the South China Sea, the Philippines which was the beneficiary of a favorable arbitration by the Permanent Court of Arbitration over the Spratly Islands is now not pressing the issue. Duterte has booted the US military out of their bases and the Philippine Navy is not co-operating with the US Navy patrols in the West Philippines Sea. Putin is visiting the Philippines next year. The 5 Dash Line which is advocated by the PRC and is objected to by the Morrison government, was drawn up by the Kuomintang government prior to the revolution in 1948 and consequently Taiwan also claims all of the Spratly Islands. The PRC and Taiwan have a bi-partisan policy in regard to the South China Sea. So can anyone explain what in heavens name our gunboat is doing in the South China Sea?
We focus very much on the Chinese claims, but according to Kishore Mahbubani, author of the book, ‘Has China Won?’, these scraps of islands, dotted throughout the region, are subject to multiple claims by the various countries in the region. China was not the first to begin making claims, Vietnam was. Mahbubani hopes that claims to these bits of rock and sand will be put on the backburner by all concerned and settled at a later date, after the region has consolidated its economic ties. Certainly it is difficult to see what business Australia or the US has in interfering.
Regarding another matter, the militarisation of some of shoals and reefs etc reclaimed by the Chinese, Mahbubani tells us that Xi Jinping offered to not militarise them if the US agreed not to weaponise the waters of the South China Sea. The US rejected this offer.
The Philippines claim was initiated by the Marcos dictatorship in the 1970’s. Marcos attempted to take the Spratly Islands, designated by his dictatorship as the Kalayaan Group of Islands, claimed as a municipality of Palawan, by military force but was prevented by the Taiwanese Navy and the South Vietnamese Navy. Marcos made the grab after a survey of the islands indicated mineral wealth. Marcos then did a deal with the Rockefeller-owned American Oil Co., which his government gave authority to explore for oil in the Reed Bank. Interestingly, Marcos claimed that the whole area was “terra nullis”. Ring a bell anyone. So we are supporting the claims of the Marcos dictatorship. The worst thieving, criminal regime in history.This is a farce.
https://www.manilatimes.net/2018/08/13/opinion/columnists/topanalysis/revealed-marcos-secret-operations-to-take-over-entire-spratly-archip
I think china will be very displeased that you separate Taiwan from them in your statements.
Our gunboat is in international waters, what’s the problem with that?
Champ i expect when i am chatting with Xi next in Beijing he might be a little displeased. Our gunboat isnt the only thing all at sea in this discussion.
To have any hope of repairing the cold war with China, is to replace Prime Minister Morrison and his Government. Unfortunately the last 4 years, Australia has been held hostage to the ideological madness of Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Scott Morrison. Not only has corruption creeped into the narrative also their bible prophecies. Separation of Church and State: Section 116 of the Australian Constitution appears to have become a myth under the current Government. With no “Bill of Rights” denies the right for the citizens of Australia to challenge the erosion of our Democracy.
So far we only look at the cost to Australia for exports, but what about imports? I have seen Australians writing in readers comments in the main stream media who say we should reject everything that we buy from China, or put tariffs on all of it.
Imports are about a 1/3 of the trade relationship, while exports are 2/3rds. Already a trade imbalance that favours us, and the very opp0site situation that the US under Trump has complained about. In fact if China was like the US it should be complaining to Australia that we are not buying enough goods from them.
Yet do any of these people who make these comments think about how ceasing imports from China would affect us? Where do we get similarly priced goods that are as well made and of such variety? Which countries would step up to the mark to replace the goods? I cannot think of any that would give us the same quality for the low prices and not cause massive rises in prices on the shop shelves. Just take a walk through Bunnings and see where so many products are made = China. Same for much of the clothing and shoes that Australians wear.
What would Australians say if they had to pay a lot more for similar goods? A rise in the price of so many different goods would of course also cause a significant spike in inflation. Many Australians think we could make these products here but have no idea that Australian wages and work conditions would make these products vastly more expensive. Then there are Chinese parts in many products that come from Europe of the US and UK. Most European cars even the top ones like BMW have Chinese made parts in them, even Swiss watches have their parts largely made in China.
Using the figure provided by George Mickhail, a list of information is derived:
Total Australian exports to China = $123billon
Total Australian jobs created = = 1,021,912
Amt Export revenue required to created jobs = 1,021,912/$123 billion
= 8,308 jobs/billion or 8 jobs/million
Education: loss of revenue due to stranded students = $6.6 billion =54,832 jobs
Education: loss of revenue due to complete loss =$12.6 billion = 104 680 jobs
Tourist loss $4,655×1.44 million visits = $6.703 billion =55,688jobs
It is apparent from these figures, that losing our China export would have seriously consequence in our economy. Yet, Canberra still let out hot airs and chest beating as if nothing untowards would happen to the people when our export revenue drops by 30%. They are too busy playing geopolitics and forgot to tell the grim figures until revealed in this article.
These are grim reaper’s data and would never end up in the mainstream media less it frightened the voters to change government.
Well, we are going to have to get used to losing China exports. China will buy as little as it can from us, and there’s nothing we can do about it. I’m not one of the Neville Chamberlains here shouting “appease, appease, appease” and advocating total surrender, not only because it’s wrong but because it’s futile.
A couple of brokers and others have pointed out we could severely punish the Chinese by putting a quota on iron ore exports, which could push the price up another $40. But I believe that punishing another country by trade shenanigans designed to humiliate is the mark of a petulant and immature nation, and I would not like to see Australia do that. As it is, China’s bullying has really helped iron ore prices: Canberra’s budget had an anticipated price of $60, which shot up to $140 and is now rising way beyond that, thanks to fears about China. And of course China pays that inflated price and pays our JobKeeper scheme. Thanks, CCP.
As to the losses you refer to Anthony, they are gone. Although quite a lot of Chinese students still want to come, despite the CCP. Ditto tourists, and as far as I am concerned they are welcome. But I’d never trust any agreement with the CCP, who are utterly untrustworthy. Promises and treaties mean nothing to them, from Hong Kong to Australia.
I’ll never understand why you (and so many here) totally exculpate China and think it’s all Australia’s fault, hot air and chest-beating. What chest-beating? We haven’t changed our attitude much since 2014, but China’s attitude certainly has – vastly more belligerent. We don’t call China chewing gum on our shoe, trash, or circulate insulting images. Scott Morrison has been pretty dignified and maintained a constant line, supported by 81% of Australians. Do you think that extraordinary level of support is only down to misleading campaigns by the mainstream media and ASPI (as some here have suggested)? I am one of the 81%. I am sorry if it sounds disrespectful, but I think that in your eagerness to boost China you may have lost the capacity to judge impartially.
81% of Australians. 81% of the people theybpolled. Wouldn’t trust them ATM.
Obviously, your prerogative.
Like George Wendell has already stated, it is exactly what we expect when we only get racist-Aussie nationalist, pro-US media coverage. It is not Australia that is the whipping boy, it is China, and things Chinese that have been the victim of the Western media, and Anglo xenophobia since year dot. If you broaden your reading material (ask George Wendell!), you may surprise yourself with what you find. The problem for some of us who are ethnically Chinese is that the demonization of China, and things Chinese can have a direct impact on the psychological well-being of some of us, quite apart from a risk of being spat on by some riled-up Aussie. If you hadn’t realised also is that there is much internal Australian politics riding on this. I would wager half my house on the LNP winning the next national elections because of their wrapping the flag around themselves. That’s politics 101. 99.9% of Chinese Australians don’t have any skin in the game, even if we can have strong opinions either way. But we KNOW we are the collateral damage, which like how George Wendell has said. This is what happened 120 years ago, and it could happen again: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight-Nation_Alliance
I don’t want to underplay Chinese Australians’ experience of racism or abuse. It is indefensible, and I do not excuse it in any way. Of course, racism cuts many ways, and I perceive PRC attacks on China as partly racist. Again, of course, I do not feel threatened in my own country so the situations are not comparable, but racial ignorance and intolerance is found in every culture, certainly Han culture.
But – and you knew there was a but – I cannot agree that all the mainstream media are racist and nationalist. Nationalist, maybe – but nothing like China’s tame media. This website could not exist in China. Criticism of the PRC is not racism, just as people on this website argue that criticism of Israeli policies is not anti-Semitism. Labelling criticism as racism is simplistic and, forgive me, lazy. There are racists criticising China certainly, but that’s not the majority of criticism. Why can’t you – and the majority of other posters here – concede that Australians have legitimate concerns about our biggest trading partner that are based on its behaviour, not its race? Amid all the calls for respect, why are people so craven as to accept that China does not owe Australia any respect? The demands are entirely one-way.
Sure, it is actually very easy to ‘concede’ China’s behaviour; it is setting out to punish Australia, and it will probably continue to do so for a while. Which is of course really bad for our business, jobs, etc. Would it surprise you if I told you that even from 12 months’ ago, I was already expecting these Chinese actions that we are seeing now? They have previously done this sort of action to South Korea, and even Japan. The Chinese state does not have much political strings to pull, so it falls back on the economics. But back to the Australian situation, the Chinese were already signalling their serious unhappiness about a few key matters. Huawei was a huge item for them- not only did Malcolm Turnbull stop Huawei’s business in Australia, he went around the world, including the US to tell them to do so. That was going past the Chinese red line. However they didn’t go ballistic until the calling for the investigation into the corona virus- it wasn’t that we called for the investigation, it was HOW we did it. And the HOW included our insistence that it should be an Iraq-style weapons-inspection type of investigation, with extra-territorial inspectors, presumably also from Australia, going into China! Trump called it a Chinese virus, Dutton came back from a briefing in Washington, and Marise Payne announced Australia’s demand- all within a few days. The Australian government played party politics, and also wanted to rub China’s face in. This was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The rest is history- after that, the Chinese government pretty much decided to buy ZERO from Australia, with the exception of iron ore, which they badly need. So back to your point about Australia’s legitimate concerns. Yes, we have the concerns, which at this point in time mean nothing to the Chinese government. They are determined to punish Australia. I am not defending their actions. I am explaining logically why the Chinese government has done what they have done. For those of us who understand how things work in China, it is no mystery. It’s only a mystery to nearly all members of our government.
One thing our government does not understand is that when the CCP makes up its collective mind on an issue, it sticks to it. China has one political party, makes long term plans, and it gets things done out of commitment to its policies and decisions. It’s why the country has made so much progress in a short period of time.
It’s not been hard to understand the Chinese point of view since they have been trying to comprehend Australia’s sudden change in attitude themselves (particularly since Trump appeared on the scene with his uncontrolled, often rude and obnoxious anti-Chinese abuse). They have come under so many false accusations that they have trouble understanding Australia’s direction themselves.
Meanwhile you only have to read the Global Times to see that they have been asking questions of Australia and informing us of their views for a very long time. They’ve also told the other side of the story in terms of Australian efforts to block imports from China which Australian media tend to exclude. They only ever tell the Australian government’s point of view, there is no chance for China to have a say.
Yes Man but do you not think that our ban on Huwei was a much bigger blow to China and that we hit first?
That is why i find all this weird. it was Turnbull who started it all via his bans on Chinese investment of “security grounds”.
Now any rational person looking at China would agree that for them coal, gas and iron ore are significant security concerns and that once we placed ourselves in the camp of the enemy with no chance of being swayed, we are fair game for Chinese national security concerns.
There is a serious war brewing between China and the USA, the young Dragon and the old Eagle. Hopefully it will be a cold not hot war, but as it heightens, we in Australia must accept that China regards us as a strategic enemy (military, economic and diplomatic).
It seems we have chosen our side and must put up with the consequences. No point whinging, although I think it SHOULD have been put to the Parliament for proper discussion and consideration.
So I think we can expect that all discretionary trade will disappear (including students) and that once China has an alternative to iron ore trade will cease altogether. Our economists need to model the effect on us and plan accordingly. Moreover they must not assume that countries we regard as “friendly will replace chinese markets. China will naturally put pressure on these too, so firstly South Korea, then Singapore and then Japan will look for alternatives to Australai if that keeps them in the Chinese market.
We must also stop being hypocritical. We and our leading ally use trade sanctions constantly for blatant political purposes- Iraq, Iran, Russia, Cuba,Venezuela, Syria etc. In international diplomacy you reap what you sow and we are now copping the consequences.
Agree on most points, but on China influencing 3rd countries regarding Australia, they won’t because they don’t have the soft power. You mentioned putting matters before the Australian Parliament- great idea, trouble is when it comes to national security, our Parliament has historically been bypassed, and will be in the future. Also, the last time DFAT was in real charge of foreign affairs and trade was when Julie Bishop was our foreign minister. DFAT these days are only an after thought- after ASIO and the security guys have decided what our policies are. It is no coincidence that we have become such rank amateurs when it comes to dealing with our biggest trade partner. https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/john-menadue-who-is-in-charge-of-australias-relations-with-china-the-australian-prime-minister-or-asio/ It is a matter of cause and effect… the Australian government/ASIO decided to seriously push back China a couple of years ago. The ‘effect’ is the extreme Chinese response we are seeing. We deliberately did what we did. As to the why, I must allude to what has been said by George Wendell in his comments above. White Australia, like White America is seriously uncomfortable with the sudden rise of non-White China as a big power. As the junior guy, the ‘Deputy Sheriff’, we wanted to show the Sheriff, our ultimate protector, that we can be seriously counted on. Hence we went out of our way to pixx off China. We poke the Dragon in the eye more than a few times, so we should expect it to breathe fire!
As a major trading nation China does have significant soft power. South Korea in particular does not want to be the meat in the sandwich between the USA and China and must seriously be weighing up its options. So I would expect they will do whatever is reasonable to placate China. Singapore has cultural ties which will keep them neutral. Japan is rather more uncertain, but if the prospect of being a nuclear target becomes serious then who knows how the population will react.
Each and every nation will weigh up their options and choose a side. Most will try to assess whether China or the USA will come out the winner. If they think it will be China then they too will drop us like hot cakes.
However it seems to me that it is not just a battle between USA and China. Russia and China seem cojoined so the winner in any battle is very unclear.
If so, it is temporary. They have a long history of distrusting each other, with good reason. They may be happy to pal up against the US for a while, but it won’t last long.
An historical parallel might be Bernard West’s What Went Wrong, about Western-Islamic relations. Whenever one side seemed about to abolish the other, internal factions and rows always prevented it. When, with the rise of the nation states, the Ottomans stood on the brink of disaster, mutual distrust between Britain, France and Russia always saved it. Human nature, Janet, I suspect.
Barney
The partnership between China and Russia will last as long as they have a common enemy. In this case both China and Russia understand that the USA sees then as strategic competitors and that it will destroy then if they can. Neither will want to have border clashes with the other while they see USA as a serious threat.
For Australia at least for the next decade (or until there is a war and one or other side is defeated) we have to assume that there is a clear alliance between China, Russia, Iran, Syria and Venezuela, just as China and Russia see a clear alliance between all the NATO countries, the remaining 5 eyes plus most of Scandinavia and Japan.
What is perhaps far more relevant to Australia is where the rest of East Asia stands, plus the Pacific islands and I guess also the Indian subcontinent. Also Africa, South America and the rest of the middle east. Turkey too but I am not sure whether Turkey knows what it is doing so hard for any others to follow.
That’s a pretty good summary, Janet, for 3 short paras. I don’t agree that the US wants to destroy Russia or China, but it certainly wants to keep hegemonic power (as China wants to gain it). I’m suggesting only that such an alliance (the China one) will be filled with mutual distrust and rivalry as well as partnership. I wasn’t suggesting violence between them: there’s a multitude of levels between friendship (such as Australia-NZ) and war. Of course any large-scale Western alliance is also a very mixed bag.
Re Asia, it seems to me that many who have posted here, especially those of Asian heritage, have shown wisdom in saying that a principal ambition from Japan to Vietnam will be to avoid being drawn into a binary rivalry.
Barney
Yes I fully agree that most of Asia will try to keep out of the way of the clash if they can.
You may be right about the USA desire to destroy Russia and China, but it is what Chinese and Russians believe that matters most. Back in 2015 I think it was, Russia held a civil defence exercise involving more than 1 million people, all to counter potential nuclear attacks.
Listen carefully to Putin’s words where he makes it very clear that he at least, fears nuclear attack and has stated clearly that any attack on Russia involving even low yield nukes will be treated as a nuclear attack.. So I argue that for as long as Russians believe that USA might attack them they will try to keep ALL their neighbours sweet. I assume that it was just such a fear that made Putin make his 1 March 2018? speech which was not so much a threat as a warning ie attack us and we have these 6 super duper scary weapons with which we can retaliate. I have not followed the progress of his scary weapons but did notice a day or so ago that one of them had had a successful test.
Yes agree! Avoid being drawn into the US-China contest, just like how New Zealand has admirably done so. NZ is actually in China’s good books.
For the sake of our Australian economy, and jobs for all of us, I would suggest the following:
1. The trading relationship with China is too important for our LNP-Labour Party point-scoring politics. This trade relationship has to be ring-fenced, so we have to have a bi-partisan approach.
2. Review ASIO-DFAT interface- decide who is in charge! We should really close down DFAT if all they are doing is to defer everything to ASIO, and the intelligence guys (who as we know are joined at the hip with US intelligence).
3. REFRAIN from poking the Dragon in the eye. Each poke of the eye is costing $1Billion!
4. Don’t push our luck, or be foolishly brave, by sailing our warships to within 12 nautical miles of the Chinese-claimed islands. Only the Sheriff has sufficient heft to do so.
5. When uncertain, leave matters to the Sheriff!
Cheers!
A reasonable program!
If there is one sentence by an Australian PM I would like to withdraw it is John Howard’s proud and naive acceptance of the deputy sheriff role. It did us immense damage.
Janet, Let me leave you with extract of the article that I had put a link to:
“As Hugh White and others have repeated many times, we need to address carefully how we manage the situation with China becoming more powerful and the US in relative decline. China is not going away and we and our neighbours have to find a way to come to terms with that fact.
The Australian Treasury estimates that in 2030 China’s GDP will be $US42.4 trillion and America’s $US24 trillion.
There will of course be downsides as well as upsides in our future relations with China. But we are not addressing them sensibly. ASIO is not helping…”.
So you can flip the coin- there will be 2 outcomes:
1. There is a nuclear exchange between the US and China-Russia, the result of which is that we can kiss goodbye to all our collective futures.
2. No war, and so China’s economy becomes about twice the size of the US in 2030.
We can’t tow the continent of Australia to nearer our declining protector, the USA. So like it or not, we will have to deal with the biggest come-back kid in the world, China.
But if the past portends the future, past Chinese emperors (with the exception of the Mongols) were all benign. We just have to send some tributes to him every year, like what SE Asian countries did for many centuries in the past. 🙂
“There is a serious war brewing between China and the USA, the young Dragon and the old Eagle.”
I agree, except for this line. I’m no historian… this according to Wikipedia:
The 1st Chinese Dynasty ruled for about 430 years from 2070-1600 BC.
The last dynasty ruled for 268 years (Qing Dynasty 1644-1912).
From 1st to last is approximate 3,982 years
Then add modern China from 1912 to 2020 = 108 years.
That’s a total of roughly 4,090 years.
Given the age difference one may say, not in any disparaging way, the Young Eagle is barely spring chicken.
Jeffa
I was of course thinking post WWII or at least last 100 years. Of course if you really want to get historical you will know that the Chinese culture/empire did expand but so too did the Western civilization. To get something like a parrallel you would need to say start at ancient Greece which gave way to Rome which gave way to Charlemagne which gave way to UK which gave way to USA. It is a bit like the shifting of Chinese capitals as dynasty followed dynasty. Given they spoke languages as disparate as those of English and Greek I think the pattern fits.
Janet, I humbly defer to your knowledge and authority.
However, one of the defining moments of the birth of the Chinese “civilisation state” was the standardisation of one written language, weights, measures, money, etc which began to develop and was enforced during the reign of Emperor Shi Huangdi (the First Emperor of Qin 221-206BC, famous for his Terracotta Army found inside his royal tomb in Xian).
Over those 4,000, or so ,years of tumultuous as well as peaceful existence, borders and capital cities (the seat of Chinese central government) shifted back and forth with the ebbs and tides of each dynasty and external influences.
Despite the standardised written Chinese language, tens of different spoken languages, aka Chinese dialects, are spoken today in China and all over the globe.
One can reasonably say, ancient China (中国, Middle Kingdom)
1. as a concept
2. with its own distinct socio-political character
3. political and governmental structure, and
4. a largely cohesive territory ruled by a central government
began during the reign of Qin Emperor Shi Huangdi and remain through to modern China today.
Though Greek philosophy hugely influenced European thoughts, developments and civilisations, it is, at best, tenuous to suggest even today, or at anytime before today, that Europe has the 4 ingredients of nationhood outlined above.
The resumption, and closure, of national borders during the pandemic clearly underscores the European Union as a collection national states, rather than a singular state ruled by a determinant central government – as was and is the case with China.
Hence, China was a state existed long before the European conceptualisation of statehood or nationhood.
As I said earlier, I’m no historian or political scientist. I defer to your knowledge and authority, and standard corrected.
all of this happened as the CCP has been deciding what to do about coal and get really serious about climate change
maybe we have given them a useful excuse to start their coal reduction process….. particularly as they obviously know we are already behaving like criminals and idiots about climate change
While racism is present in our society, Australia is certainly not a racist country. I am finding it almost ironic that the people who use the term ‘gwailou’ in their language, keep bringing the racism up.
The word ‘racism’ is weaponised in conversations, causing others to become defensive.
Current confrontation with the Chinese state and CCP has nothing to do with the racism. Australia had a similar conflict with the US back in the eighties.
If “racism” is a weapon, so is “human rights”.
The general morality of human rights is largely agreeable and commendable. The way “human rights” is defined, narrated, wielded and applied by Anglo-American powers is not.
The Wuhan Lockdown (January 23) was derided as gross human right abuse. NZ lockdown (March 26) was commendable. One is Chinese, the other Anglo-Saxon.
Guantanamo Bay and “enhanced interrogation” (aka torture, banned under UN Convention Against Torture) was War on Terrorism. The arrest of Chinese dissidents were “human rights abuse”. The detention and arrest of Julian Assange is not.
The 1960’s use of carcinogenic Agent Orange against 4 million North Vietnamese was necessary to counter the “Domino Theory”. No human rights abuse there. No war crimes. No crimes against humanity.
The 1991 & 2004 rampant use carcinogenic U-235 depleted uranium ammunition in Iraq causing spike in birth defects was justifiable against the Islamic State. No human rights violation there. No human rights abuse there. No war crimes. No crimes against humanity.
Scores of US economic sanctions and boycotts causing untold human sufferings, poverty, malnutritions, starvations, destruction of health and education systems… are “necessary”. No human rights abuse to see here.
These are just a few examples. The list can go on and on and on and on……
thank you for list of US and AustraIian “values”
we should add specific Australian items to be proud of:
Timor Leste (Downer, Howard)
mistreatment of refugees (Howard, Dutton)
treatment of first nations (since occupation by British)
neoliberal destruction of egalitarian community
corruption of military (copy US military behaviour)
corruption of democratic federal government (Abbott, etc)
>>>If “racism” is a weapon, so is “human rights”.<<<
One is not an excuse for the other to be used as a weapon. Or simply, two wrongs do not make a right. It is just a tit for tat.
I do not like the ‘Anglo-American’ power any more than the rising power of the Chinese state. They are just two forms of the same evil.
In case you missed my last sentence, we had a confrontation in the past with the Americans. They even sent their Pacific fleet to a ‘friendly’ visit to Australia. I was watching from the office window how numerous small boats try to stop large navy ships from docking in Sydney harbour. Well, they did not call those protesters the racists back then.
Speaking of human rights…
If the protests in Sydney and Melbourne were as violent and destructive to the property, as they were in Hong Kong, I am sure that our police would be less restrained than the Chinese. Honestly, I do not care what they do in their own country. I do not even care what Anglo-Americans do. We have our human rights issues in this country. We were told that adding the Australian Indigenous people into our constitution is ‘too complex matter, and will take time’.
I suggest that people should more worry about our domestic problems.
As I do not keep my head in the sand, I am well aware that the Chinese in Australia are now more subjected to insults than before. My Korean friend is worried at the moment. Some people do not differentiate between ‘Asians’.
But because of the racists in our society, we should not mute critics of the Chinese state by calling them racist or accusing them of believing in the ‘conspiracy theories’.
What would you expect? Australians only get racist-Aussie nationalist but pro-American diatribe on China in the mainstream media, and China is easy to vilify, it’s been going on since well before the Australian goldrush. If you notice our media is mainly interested in anglophone countries, they are always the goodies. China has been the whipping boy for a long time well before Mao was even born. Most Australians know diddly squat about China or its people. Xenophobia works a treat here.
Check this out, it appeared in The Bulletin in 1886:
https://www.reddit.com/r/PropagandaPosters/comments/j4p8ht/the_mongolian_octopus_his_grip_on_australia_by/
Everything in this image was false. You’ve got to like the way Chinese are blamed for Opium in the image when at exactly the same time the British and Americans were forcing it down China’s neck to correct their trade imbalances. They even had two wars plus the Boxer Rebellion which they suppressed so they could keep it up.
Barney i respect your opinion but calling chewy on your boot was never much of an insult when i was a kid.
No indeed, it’s quite benign to us. But in much of Asia, I’m told by Asian and Chinese friends, it is about as insulting as you can get, sort of equivalent to motherf….r. I’m largely reading what I perceive to be the intention.
“I’ll never understand why you (and so many here) totally exculpate China and think it’s all Australia’s fault, hot air and chest-beating.”
There may be a range of reasons for this behaviour. But they all could be easily grouped into three categories. One’s character, one’s ideology and one being tasked of promoting somebody’s interests.
The sinophobes trifecta. The choice of ad hominem, reds under the beds and a conspiracy theory. Turn it up mate this stuff went out with bell bottoms.
How much do you know about reds mate?
I wonder if the Grim Reaper was asleep while Australia was prosperous some 30 years ago with no exports to PRC.
Australia exports 2013/14 vs 1963/64 percentages based on ABS trade data on DFAT STARS database and unpublished ABS database. 1963/64 figures in parenthesis. United States: [3.7%] 3.9% (1.9&); Other Americas 1.2% (1.6%); China [32.7%] 36.7% (7.7%); Japan [9.0%] 18.0% (22.4.0%); Other Asia (28.3% (8.7%); United Kingdom [3.8%] 1.4% (23.5%); Other Europe 4.1% (12.4%) Oceania & Antarctica 4/1% (4.1%) Others Including Africa 2.4% (8.1%). [2019 figures in square brackets]
Top 15 trading partner of Australia 2019: (1) China: US$89.2 billion (32.7% of total Australian exports); (2) Japan: $24.4 billion (9%); (3) South Korea: $13.6 billion (5%); (4) United Kingdom: $10.4 billion (3.8%); (5) United States: $10 billion (3.7%); (6) India: $9 billion (3.3%); (7) New Zealand: $7.1 billion (2.6%); (8) Taiwan: $6.8 billion (2.5%); (9) Hong Kong: $5.3 billion (2%); (10) Singapore: $5.3 billion (1.9%); (11) Malaysia: $4.6 billion (1.7%); (12) Vietnam: $4.2 billion (1.6%); (13) Indonesia: $3.7 billion (1.3%); (14) Thailand: $2.6 billion (0.9%) & (15) Germany: $2.1 billion (0.8%)
From these figures, one can conclude that (1) The loss in exports to UK, Europe and Japan since 1960s, were taken up by China by 2019. (2) Total exports to Asia including China is 58% and the top 11 out o 15 top trading nations are Asians.
If George Mickhail’s figures are correct on the relations bw jobs and export income, then the total decoupling losing US$89 billion in export revenue would place a big burden on our social welfare structure – pensions, medicare, unemployment benefits and other welfare payments.
To Floyd G: The Grim reaper was created gradually in the last 40 years and it has now matured to cause hardship to Australians, not at the poverty level, but not able to get the luxuries we were used to in the last 40 years, just like a cut in pocket money of 1/3 for a teenager – unhappy.
Many thanks to commentators who show empathy with the 1.2 million Chinese Australians who felt great disappointment and sadness in the loss of export revenues.
The extra one million in the unemployment queue will be handy to Scott in his other great project of destroying industrial awards, penalty rates and trade unions.
Sir,
Thank you for writing such a timely and informative article. There are many other countries around the world that have values as good as or even better than Australia’s. Yet they are able to work cooperatively with China to create employment and put food on the table for their people without losing their self-respect. How they do it is not nuclear physics. It is simply “mutual respect”.
Sincerely,
Teow Loon Ti
Dear Tl. Did you not provide the answer yourself, when you suggested that China was punishing Australia? China is not in a mood to be conciliated, and most Australians are not willing to pay the price to conciliate. China’s Government has absolutely no respect for Australia, by your own account, so Morrison’s inept attempts to mend fences are hardly mutual.
Downhill from here – at least for a while.
Hi Barney,
I have not suggested that China was punishing Australia. The idea that it is an attempt to punish is an interpretation of their actions. I did suggest however, that they could have decided to reduce engagement. All the while, I was saying that China was reacting, in an understandable way, to the constant pillorying by the Australian government and Australian msm. I also said that the adversarial method used in Australian politics is not a suitable way to engage with them. I hope, and believe, that they are aware that our business community’s attitude is different. They, like Andrew Forrest, have spoken up about a less confrontational approach and were upbraided by the press for putting business above loyalty (something of that nature – I can’t remember the exact words). I remember using the words “poke them in the eye”. Really, there is no price to be paid at all. What do we lose by interacting with them politely? If we need to speak up about matters that they are sensitive about, we could do it quietly through diplomatic channels.
They know that we are a democracy. They know that we are an ally of the US. They have traded with us for the last three decades until the present government and msm got their heckles up. I think that when people decide to fight, little respect would be forthcoming from either side. Personally, I think that time will heal the situation and then rapprochement will be possible. It will require firstly a complete change of attitude of the present government and msm. That seems quite unlikely. How long a time that is needed is anybody’s guess.
Sincerely,
Teow Loon Ti
Dear Tl, I’m sorry if I wrongly put words in your mouth. I scrolled back, and I based it on this reply by you to me; “It’s like “I won’t buy your wine because you have been rude to me.” It’s
NOT like “I will not trade with you unless you do what I tell you to
do”. So I may have interpreted too freely.
But, to continue the discussion, surely China is sophisticated enough to understand that Andrew Hastie (for example) is not the government. I’m no friend of Morrison, but I think he has been quite polite, while being firm about what he perceives to be Australia’s national interest. Please don’t think I am accusing you of this, but sometimes “less confrontational approach” has been used to mean not civility (which we all value) but acquiescence. I think Twiggy Forrest came close to this.
I think most Australians do respect China. I do, though – and I gather you have collected this by now! – I despise many aspects of the CCP regime. We have agreed they are not coterminous. I certainly agree that the solution is time, but I don’t think Australia can achieve much. I think it will be other geopolitical pressures and rising issues.