In an opinion poll published in the Guardian online an astonishing 2/3 of voters either approved or strongly approved of the Prime Minister’s conduct of the nation’s affairs.
While this may in part be a reflection of the abysmal performance of the official Labor “opposition” there must be a deeper reason for the Prime Minister’s support. It cannot be that a substantial majority of Australians think that he is doing a good job. He manifestly is not. This can be illustrated by reference to the greatest problem currently facing the Australian government.
I am not referring to the Covid 19 coronavirus. That was never more than one would expect from a season of bad colds. Rather, the existential threat facing Australia is the steadily growing collapse of its trade with China. Here, the current Prime Minister does not take all the blame. The rot actually began under the Prime Ministership of his predecessor Malcolm Turnbull. Certainly however, the rot has accelerated this year, and for that the current Prime Minister is solely to blame.
In March 2020 the Prime Minister called for an inquiry into the Covid 19 virus that he clearly attributed to China. In the knowledge available to the public at that time it was widely believed, incessantly in the western media, that China may well have been the epicentre of the disease. Only Morrison was stupid enough to publicly express that view.
The Chinese were furious, a fury made more candescent by the systematic misrepresenting in the western media of steps China had taken with regard to the outbreak. At the time of Morrison’s ill-considered remarks there was some evidence that the virus had first appeared in China in the city of Wuhan in October 2019, although it was not identified as such at the time.
The location of Wuhan is significant. In October 2019 it was the location of the World Military Games, a phenomenon rarely mentioned in the Australian media. The hotel where the United States participants in the Games were staying was an epicentre of the disease. A significant number of the United States participants fell ill to flu like symptoms. This was not reported in the Australian media at the time, and neither was the fact that for the first time the United States failed to win a single gold medal.
We now know that the virus first appeared in Europe, specifically in Italy and Spain even earlier in 2019, and well before the first cases were detected in Wuhan. One might have thought that the new evidence would be widely published in Australia. The Prime Minister, not known for ever saying worry, could at least have made some moves to assuage Chinese anger over his attribution of the viruses’ origins to them.
The Chinese noticed the silence. The pressure on Australian exports to that country began to be ramped up. At the time of writing hundreds of millions of dollars of Australian exports to China have effectively been wiped out. The Australian government’s response has been to make a complaint to the World Trade Organisation. Good luck with that. When it finally reports, most likely several months down the track, it may well find that China’s actions were arbitrary and contrary to the rules.
That will be, if it happens, a pyrrhic victory for Australia, which in the meantime would have seen the collapse of its trade with a country that takes nearly 40% of all of Australia’s exports. The damage does not stop there. In 2019 more than 1 million Chinese citizens visited Australia as tourists. They were the largest single source of foreign tourists. That has now disappeared. The Chinese government is openly advising their citizens to go somewhere else to spend their yuan when travel resumes. That will be devastating to the local tourist industry.
It is not just tourists that have been advised to stay away. China was also the largest single source of foreign students in Australian schools and universities. That also has disappeared, and the chances of the numbers resuming in anywhere near the previous numbers are virtually zero. Thousands of academic jobs will be lost as a consequence.
When one looks at Australian government policy towards China it is difficult to know which of the multiple forces at play actually predominates. At the same time that China was firmly closing the door on Australia, the two countries were two of 15 nations (the ASEAN group, plus Japan, New Zealand, Australia and China) that signed a wide-ranging trade deal that had an eight-year gestation. Did the right-hand know what the left hand was doing?
Part of the problem is that Australia does not accept the reality of its geography. When one looks at a map, Australia is a large landmass perched at the southern end of the Asian landmass. That geographic reality has long been recognised in trading relationships. For the past three decades at least, the balance of Australian trade has swung increasingly north.
The vast bulk of Australian trade is in the Asian region, not just China, but also Japan and other Asian nations. China and Japan alone account for approximately 60% of Australia’s foreign trade. Yet mentally, Australia remains a Western nation, attaching its military strings to the United States bow, although the latter is of minor importance in terms of trade. One of the ironies of the current fight with China is that a likely major beneficiary will be the United States.
It will be a cold day in hell before the Americans do more than offer sympathetic noises to the Australians whose business with China they are replacing. What can be done by Australia to remedy the plight in which it finds itself? To be brutally frank, not a lot unless of course Canberra has a radical change of policy orientation. The chances of that happening are close to zero.
Knowledgeable and experienced China watchers such as Hugh White and Geoff Raby have been arguing for some time that a fundamental shift in Australian attitudes and behaviour toward its most important trading partner is long overdue. With no disrespect to either of them, the message has largely fallen on deaf ears. The one good thing that may come of the present breakdown in relations between Australia and China is that the former undergoes a radical change in policy and treats the world, including but not only China, as it really is rather than how it would wish it to be.
One would be unwise to hold one’s breath waiting for that change, but the bucket of ice China has thrown over Australia may just be the catalyst for a long overdue change of direction.
*Geopolitical analyst. He may be contacted at jamesoneilll83@icloud.co
James O’Neill is a former academic, and has practiced as a barrister since 1984 — first in New Zealand and then, since 2002, in Brisbane. He writes on geo-political issues, with a special emphasis on international law and human rights.
Comments
7 responses to “The China shock may provide a much-needed catalyst for change”
We need to strengthen our export performance around the world and rely less on the Chinese market. A letter from eight former Trade Commissioners published in The Australian on 18 December tells us how to do it. “Tradies” are not necessarily blokes driving utes. We need shop-front trade offices in major cities where local businessmen can walk in without going through Fort Knox security and our Export Department should be led by a senior Minister. The eight signatories suggest the Deputy Prime Minister.
Fat chance of that happening now the mug punter has woken up to the silent invasion.
And how special is the own goal by Xi
He has put a rocket up iron ore price – nice one Xi
And how clever of Xi blockading Aussie coking coal triggering huge spikes in Chinese coal prices.
Now Xi take a bow with Chinese steel mill profits getting crushed.
And as for Mr Woo with no heating cos of the lack of coal for his local power station he will be ecstatic with Xi.
And as for the education/migration scam businesses of universities I am happy for them not to come.
Fair bit of wishful thinking there champ. The xenophobia of your last comment was a nice touch of course. I suspect that Xi and the people of PRC at this stage dont give a flying toss what the adherents of Rupert Murdoch and Peter Costello’s media empires think here in Australia. They are too busy getting on with the job of growing their economy, increasing the country’s wealth and distributing it to the people. Unlike here in Australia, where we are led by the laziest PM in our history and we have one blast furnace chugging out less than one per cent of the world’s steel production. If Xi has scored an own goal this year then i think the people of the PRC are applauding. “Chinese stocks have gained nearly $4.9 trillion in value this year, aided by the country’s rapid recovery from the new coronavirus, a string of initial public offerings, and a blistering rally in shares of consumer and technology companies“. Chinese businesses listed on stock exchanges from New York to Shanghai have added 41% to $16.7 trillion. But this report doesn’t come from Global Times. This report comes from today’s Wall Street Journal. Read it and weep.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-stocks-have-banner-year-gaining-nearly-5-trillion-116088922
The majority of Australians think PM Morrison is doing a good job because he is presented as doing so by an uncritical main stream media. This has also led to a huge increase in anti China sentiment among Australians. With the help of the media the Australia China trade war is playing well politically for Morrison. Given the lack of positives on the domestic policy front why would he change tack in one of the few areas he is winning votes? He doesn’t care if loss of trade with China causes economic loses in Australia as long as he wins the next election. That’s the only thing that matters.
Summary of China’s 14 grievances [NSG – on national security grounds; US – on behest of US]
1. Blocked foreign investment acquisition on national security grounds. [NSG & US]
2. Banning of Huawei & ZTE from 5G network. [NSG & US]
3. Politization and stigmatization of normal exchanges and cooperation including scholars .[NSG]
4. Foreign interference legislation viewed as targeting China. [NSG]
5. Call on an international investigation on Covid-19 on behest of the US. [US}
6. Incessant and wanton inference in China’s domestic affairs, Xinjiang, Hong Kong & Taiwan [US].
7. The first non-littoral country to make a statement on South China Seas to the UN.[US]
8. Siding with US on anti-China campaign and spreading misinformation from the US about China’s effort to contain the coronavirus. [US]
9. Legislate to scrutinize agreements with a foreign government targeting China – torpedo Victorian government BRI with China. [NSG & US]
10. Provide funding for anti-China think tank for spreading untrue reports on Xinjiang.[US]
11. Early dawn raid on Chinese journalist, without charge or explanation. [NSG]
12.Thinnly veiled allegations against China on cyber attacks without evidence. [NSG]
13. Outrageous condemnation of the governing Party of China by MPs, and racists attacks on Chinese and Asian people. [US]
14. Unfriendly or antagonistic reort on China by media, poisoning the bi-lateral relations.[US]
(a) Those allegations with [US] or [NSA] are tied to US foreign policy and are difficult to reverse without US approval. Probability of reversal – zilch at the moment.
(b) Australia response by public chest beating about 14 counter demands to China, only add logs to the fire. (The Conversation)
(c) Cabinet reshuffle on Trade, Education & Tourism as reported in the SMH. Three important Ministries that deal with China are Trade, Education and Tourism. There are no new talents to front the Australia-China trade, but only round robin and musical chairs played by the same actors. Fixing the China problem does not appear fair dinkum and not using Alan Tudge as Minister for China Affairs is a missed opportunity to repair relations.
From the above, repairing the relations is not in the agenda at all for next 6 months.
Maybe make that 6 years. The unflushable turd( hat tip to the late and great Mungo) Morrison has successfully uncoupled Australia from the fastest growing and soon to be largest economy in the world. This has to be the worst economic decision since Decca Records told the Beatles they would never make it in 1962 and signed Brian Poole and the Tremaloes instead.
Actually it is quite possible for a majority of Aussies to think their PM is doing a good job when he manifestly isn’t. Some of us think this is not unusual.
All the criticism of our ham fisted ‘diplomacy’ re China is well said I think.