Was Israel complicit in the 7 October 2023 massacre?

The dreadful atrocities by Hamas on 7 October 2023 horrified the world and triggered the destruction of Gaza, the deaths of more than 50,000 Gazan men, women and children and the wounding of tens of thousands more.

Israeli leaders placed the entire blame on Hamas for the deaths of 1200 Israelis and others and the kidnapping of another 250. But the attack would not have been so devastating if the Israel Defence Force had responded to the evidence that Hamas was preparing a large military action.

The usual explanation was that the IDF and Shin Bet were overconfident that Hamas didn’t have the resources or the determination to mount an effective attack in Israel. However, it is worth remembering “The first casualty of war is truth”. Could there be another explanation as to why the top IDF commanders didn’t connect the dots before 7 October?

Ignoring the warning signs

1. The Israel-Gaza border has not been historically peaceful. Since 2008, Israel has had four armed conflicts with Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups, the most recent being 29 months earlier in May 2021.
2. According to The New York Times, Israeli officials had obtained detailed attack plans more than a year before the attack. The document was widely circulated among the Israeli military and intelligence leadership, who largely dismissed the plan as beyond Hamas’ capabilities, though it was unclear whether the political leadership was informed.
3. Israel allowed suitcases filled with cash to enter Gaza from Qatar.
4. Israel had close surveillance of Gaza with information from the border, drones, aircraft, satellites, collaborators and electronic equipment. It is highly likely the IDF had observed evidence of tunnel construction and the training of Hamas operatives. Similarly, the IDF was probably aware of the flow of weapons into Gaza from Egypt. Why was the evidence ignored?
5. In July 2023, a member of Israeli Signals Intelligence (Unit 8200) alerted her superiors that Hamas was conducting preparations for the assault. An Israeli colonel ignored her concerns.
6. Female IDF observers along the Gaza security fence repeatedly reported unusual activity in the Gaza Strip which resembled preparations to attack the fence. Their reports were ignored.
7. Days before 7 October, Egypt warned Israel that something big was about to happen. The warning was ignored.
8. Just before 7 October, Israelis staged several provocative actions in the Occupied West Bank and on the Temple Mount.

In summary, before 7 October, IDF commanders expressed confidence that Hamas was too weak to seriously harm Israel and criticised lower ranks who warned that the militant group was preparing to cause further trouble. The 7 October attack created a casus belli for Israel It is possible that the failures of the IDF to prevent the 7 October attack was a deliberate ploy by Benjamin Netanyahu’s Government to justify a brutal war on Hamas, and the destruction of Gaza (casus belli). The more outrageous the atrocity, the easier it was to create the social licence, both domestically and internationally, to wage a brutal war of reprisal. The deliberate tactical defeat on 7 October provided the pretext for a strategic victory. Historically, vicious attacks on the US led to severe retaliation. For example, the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour resulted in America entering World War II and later dropping two atomic bombs on Japan. The 9/11 disaster led to the War on Terror in which tens of thousands of people were killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. For Israeli strategists, the greater the atrocities of 7 October, the greater the justification for a righteous war and severe payback. So, the attack by Hamas on 7 October was Israel’s casus belli for a war of retribution that fulfilled Israel’s strategic objectives. Senior members of the IDF could have been instructed to ignore the warning signs that Hamas was preparing to attack. This instruction resonated with Napoleon’s dictum: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” The 7 October attack was strategically useful for Israel

1.  The massacres of 7 October reinforced the belief of many Jewish Israelis that Palestinians are untrustworthy savages who should not be living inside the borders claimed by Israel. This belief fuels the current plan to transfer Gazans to other countries.

2. If there are no Palestinians in Gaza, the area can be totally absorbed into Israel with many benefits including:

• The area can be profitably re-developed. President Donald Trump said it could become “the Riviera of the Middle East”.
• It removes the Palestinian claim for royalties from the Leviathan gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea off Gaza and Israel.
• It ensures there is no recurrence of rocket attacks from Gaza into Israel.

3.  The Hamas-Israel war distracted world attention from the widespread violence by Jewish settlers and the IDF towards Palestinians living in the Occupied West Bank. Over the 18 months from 7 October 2023, more than 870 Palestinians were killed in the West  Bank,including 177 children.

• The 7 October atrocity moved the political centre of gravity of Jewish Israelis further to the right, and thus increased support for Likud’s and the hard-right political parties’ position that there will not be a Palestinian state between the River and the Sea.
• The genocidal war appeased the hard-right Jewish leaders such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and ex-Defence Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir who equated the Palestinians with the ancient Amalek tribe. In the Hebrew Bible, Saul, Israel’s first king, was told by God (YHWH) via the prophet Samuel, “Now go, attack Amalek, and kill all that belonged to him. Spare no one, but kill alike men and women, infants and sucklings, oxen and sheep, camels and asses!” (1 Samuel 15:3).
• The atrocities of 7 October helped Israeli influencers and lobbyists in Western countries to motivate their political leaders and mass media to support Israel militarily, socially and to shield Israel from international pressure [UN Security Council, International Criminal Court, International Court of Justice, Human Rights groups etc].

In March 2025, a handful of Israeli politicians urged Coalition MPs to dump Australia’s longstanding two-state policy on Israel and Palestine.

• Strategically, the war drew Israel’s enemies, Hezbollah and Iran into supporting Hamas. Israel then used its imaginative tactics and American-supplied advanced weapons to militarily defeat them.
• The war provided an opportunity to incrementally enlarge Greater Israel by annexing territory taken from an enemy (eg expansion in Gaza, the Syrian side of the Golan Heights and possibly East Jerusalem and Occupied West Bank).

9. The war showed the world that Israeli weapons were successfully battle tested. The defence industry continues to be important for Israel’s economy

10. While the Hamas-Israel war continues, Benjamin Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister and thus avoid criminal charges and

possible jail.

 Israeli Commission of Enquiry

Many Israelis want an impartial investigation into the catastrophe of 7 October– laying bare what went wrong that day and beforehand.

Such an investigation may uncover evidence that senior Israeli politicians wanted a calamity to occur so that they had a casus belli and could achieve their strategic objectives of expanding Greater Israel. Consequently, senior IDF commanders may have been instructed to ignore signals that Hamas was preparing for a major assault on Israel. Netanyahu does not want such an investigation because a serious probe will probably hold him responsible for the IDF failure on 7n October.

John Stace

John Stace is a retired country doctor. He is shocked by the mistreatment of Palestinians by Israel.

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