Donald Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping is expected to focus heavily on military communications, Taiwan, nuclear tensions and crisis management as both sides seek to avoid dangerous escalation between the world’s two largest powers.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth’s rare presence in President Donald Trump’s entourage to Beijing signals a willingness on both sides to strengthen military communications to de-escalate and avoid crises, and suggests US arms sales to Taiwan will feature in talks, analysts say.
The Chinese experts expected Beijing to include Defence Minister Dong Jun in talks during the summit, with one source suggesting that Dong and Hegseth might also hold separate negotiations on the sidelines of the Xi-Trump summit.
The summit might include discussion of nuclear weapons and restoring and expanding military-to-military communication channels, they said.
Hegseth, who arrived with Trump aboard Air Force One on Wednesday evening, is the first American defence chief in decades to accompany a sitting president on a state visit to China.
Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, said Hegseth’s participation was likely to advance bilateral military communication mechanisms and crisis management.
Since Hegseth was taking part, Zhu said China would “at the least” bring in Dong, its minister of national defence, to the summit.
In 2017, Li Zuocheng, then chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC), was the only PLA official present at the Xi-Trump summit in Beijing.
Zhu said both sides hoped this communication mechanism would help to prevent miscalculation – particularly accidental skirmishes that could flare up in the Taiwan Strait or the disputed South China Sea.
“Given that fundamental differences are difficult to resolve, the immediate priority becomes avoiding miscalculation and stabilising the relationship,” Zhu said.
Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, said Hegseth’s presence could hint at progress on defence communications.
“In an ideal situation, this should mean the restoration of some military mechanisms because both sides attach importance to crisis management. Neither side wants conflict,” Zhou said, adding that the creation of “new channels” could not be ruled out.
He said those mechanisms could include the Joint Staff-level communication channels that were established in 2017 but suspended in recent years.The last exchange at that level took place in 2023, via a video call between then US Joint Chiefs chairman Charles Q. Brown and Liu Zhenli, then chief of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC.
Liu was placed under investigation in January for suspected serious disciplinary violations. Beijing has not named a replacement for his position.
Zhou also said Taiwan was likely to remain a key focus, particularly regarding US arms sales to the island.
“On the Taiwan issue, the US side may come under greater pressure from China. This will definitely be raised at the highest level,” he said.
“Because China’s capabilities are increasing, countermeasures are also increasing. The US may realise such sales could bring greater risks.”
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, agrees that Hegseth’s presence hinted at exchanges on strategic matters that were likely to include arms control as well as PLA actions near the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and East China Sea.
The two sides were unlikely to reach any enduring consensus on those matters but they might make progress on the scale and timing of US arms sales to Taiwan, Shi said.
“If the meeting proceeds smoothly, the substantial arms sales to Taiwan currently planned by the US for the near future could potentially face a brief delay. However, even if such an arrangement were reached, it would not be announced, nor would the specific terms of the exchange be disclosed.”
Zhao Tong, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said nuclear issues were likely to be discussed.
“China’s nuclear expansion has become an increasingly significant concern in US strategic calculations, in some respects rivalling or surpassing concerns about Russia’s nuclear threats. While China is unlikely to endorse a trilateral arms-control framework involving the United States and Russia, it may signal openness to resuming a bilateral strategic security dialogue,” Zhao said.
“If both sides adopt a pragmatic approach, such a dialogue could create space for initial official-level exchanges on nuclear issues within a broader effort to stabilise the bilateral relationship.”
Zhu Feng from Nanjing also believed the two sides were expected to exchange views on nuclear disarmament, “though their respective positions on this matter remain vastly divergent … No substantive progress is anticipated on this front during the upcoming talks.”
The summit comes amid the ongoing Iran conflict and after Trump sought to persuade China to use its influence with Tehran to help end the fighting.
Beijing has repeatedly stressed the importance of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
Shi said Iran was not likely to become a central topic.
“Neither the United States nor Israel has succeeded in militarily subduing Iran. Furthermore, China lacks both the capacity for military intervention and the leverage to effectively mediate the conflict. So this topic is unlikely to emerge as a central theme of the dialogue,” he said.
Republished from South China Morning Post
Amber Wang
Amber Wang is a reporter for the China desk with SCMP, and focuses on Chinese politics and diplomacy. She joined the Post in 2021, and previously worked for The New York Times and Southern Metropolis Daily.
Alcott Wei
Alcott Wei reports on China joining SCMP in 2025, after working as an intern for the Beijing bureau in 2024 and has long had a keen interest in Chinese politics. He graduated from the Hong Kong Baptist University with a bachelor’s degree in journalism and communication.