Given the Israeli Parliament’s overwhelming rejection of a two-state solution the world needs to recognise that it is no longer possible, at least in the short and possibly medium term. It’s a mirage that opinion polls show most Israelis and Palestinians don’t want. Given their long acrimony, the sad truth is that each side wants to overpower the other and have only one nation.
The Palestinians want continued intifadas with the hope that Iran, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah will come to their aid and extinguish Israel. Israeli’s hope that they can defeat Hamas and Hezbollah, destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and rule the occupied territories without further resistance.
In the short to medium term Israel has the upper hand. In the longer-term Israel needs to come to terms with its Palestinian population and its Arab neighbours to survive. But for now, the realpolitik points to just one outcome which idealists in the West refuse to recognise because they adhere to the fantasy of a two-state solution.
Professor John Mearsheimer contends that Israel’s end game is for a Greater Israel that annexes the West Bank and Gaza and forces Palestinians to flee elsewhere. And the US won’t stop that since the Israeli lobby in America has political sway. If he is right the future is not a two-state solution, but a mass refugee crisis.
Mearsheimer’s compelling case for this scenario was put to the Centre for Independent Studies in May which was ably hosted by its CEO Tom Switzer.
Mearsheimer is a spellbinding speaker and won a prestigious academic award for being one of America’s most distinguished and influential scholars. Mearsheimer is renowned for his prescience on world crises based on analysing power balance realities rather than indulging in wishful thinking. Unfortunately, he does not offer remedies on each crisis, just what is likely to unfold. A summary of his thoughts and works is provided by Wikipedia.
He believes the world is anarchic with superpowers seeking security through forward offence rather than homeland defence. The only way to avoid war is to achieve agreed balances of power where major nations respect each other’s regional spheres of influence. In other words, a multipolar world, not one where the US fights to retain post-Soviet era global hegemony since that is both unaffordable and unsustainable.
Interestingly, US Presidential favourite Donald Trump and his fellow Isolationist Conservative (Iso-Cons) accept the same conclusion which is why they have sidelined the Neo-Conservatives (Neo-Cons) within the Republican Party. The mass media has been slow to pick up this huge shift in GOP politics focusing instead on the dire consequences of the Iso-Cons’ hostility to foreign import and immigrants.
For more on this topic, P&I recommends:
Percy Allan AM was Chair, Evidence Based Policy Research Project (2018-2022). He is also a Visiting Professor at the Institute for Public Policy and Governance, University of Technology Sydney. (Former Secretary, NSW Treasury and Chair, NSW T-Corp 1985-1994 and Chair, NSW Premier’s Council on the Cost & Quality of Government, 1999-2007)