Australia is the victim of its own success – the jurisdictions that have succeeded will not give up their gains. Thus, Victoria and New South Wales – and Queensland – have to achieve zero-case status too, otherwise we will have a fractured nation and lives that are too far away from normal.
Five of our states and territories have eliminated Covid-19 from their communities. Their lifestyles and health systems, if not their economies, have returned to close to normal. It is they, along with Queensland and New Zealand, who are likely to drive what happens in Australia.
To achieve and continue with zero-case status, we need to minimise the risk of a major breach in our current systems for quarantining international arrivals.
The Grattan Institute has recently written about the disorder of a “yo-yo” economy, one that is open one day, closed the next. Their view is that “… the right thing to do is to pursue a goal of zero cases before restrictions are completely eased” and that to “… maintain zero cases there must be effective quarantining of all international arrivals”.
In Part I we consider the “zero-case” concept; in Part II we look at international arrivals.
The current situation among our states and territories
The following table summarises the active case status of our eight states and territories and New Zealand on September 6, when the Premier of Victoria announced the road forward for his state.
| Covid-19 active cases by jurisdiction on September 6, 2020
Source: https://www.covid19data.com.au/ |
|||||
| Active cases | Days with no active cases | Days with no new cases | Days with no locally acquired cases | Estimated 7-day average of latest locally acquired cases | |
| NSW | 168 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Less than 10 |
| VIC | 1872 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Less than 100 |
| QLD | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Less than 3 |
| SA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| WA | 2 | 0 | 9 | 119 | 0 |
| TAS | 0 | 5 | 26 | 114 | 0 |
| NT | 0 | 23 | 36 | 155 | 0 |
| ACT | 0 | 37 | 58 | 59 | 0 |
| NZ | 116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Less than 5 |
What is meant by zero-case status? The Queensland government seems to have defined it as “no community transmissions for 28 days, equivalent to two incubation periods”. They say that if NSW can achieve that status, Queensland would open the border.
Using this definition, the table shows that five Australian states have achieved zero-case status – SA, WA, NT, Tasmania and ACT. They can be deemed to have “eliminated” the virus from the community, even though some active cases may occasionally occur in managed quarantine from international or interstate arrivals. They all accept that community breakouts might occur, but hope that they can be controlled quickly.
Queensland and New Zealand have a small number of local transmissions persisting. Those two jurisdictions are determined to conquer the virus and should soon join the “eliminated” group.
NSW is struggling after incursions from Victoria and is just managing to keep the virus “suppressed”. But with cases popping up unpredictably, and with lack of strong action, one fears a serious outbreak will occur in NSW any moment.
In Victoria, my home state, though infections are trending downwards, the Covid-19 situation is “uncontrolled”. Victoria is the pariah. None of the other jurisdictions welcomes us.
Some state borders are likely to remain closed until all states reach elimination
Victoria’s current outbreak, resulting from a breakdown of the hotel quarantine system, has been rampant for about three months, exceeding 700 daily infections at the end of July. Level 4 restrictions are in force and likely to last until mid-October.
Lifestyle for Victorian residents, and Melburnians in particular, is far from normal with virtual home confinement, face masks outside the home, 9pm curfew, a five-kilometre travel limit, no restaurants, gyms, cinemas, and so on. Work conditions are far from normal with significant impacts on education, retail, construction, all forms of tourism and for private and public transport. And the health system is severely compromised with significant numbers of health workers Covid-19 positive or isolated, and virus clusters in hospitals and aged care.
Other states don’t have anything like this. They are almost back to normal life, with dinner parties, restaurants, intrastate travel, and so on – except perhaps for NSW. Our interstate friends and families confirm all this.
At the moment the five zero-case states along with Queensland and New Zealand all seem to be coping with their borders closed or restricted (education and tourism industries the main exceptions).
The Premier of Western Australia has refused to commit to a date when he will open borders – he noted that all Australian states, in the middle of the year, made a commitment to open the borders but then“Victoria happened”. He emphasised that releasing and reimposing lockdown and opening and closing borders, again and again, is not how he wants to run his state. Tasmania’s Premier has more or less said the same. The Queensland Premier has been very vocal about keeping borders secure.
The evidence is that Australia’s approach to the virus means it has not done as badly as nearly all other Western economies. And GDP data show that those states with strict border controls have not done as badly economically as Victoria and NSW.
Thus the successful jurisdictions will fight to retain the results they have attained and the hard work put in to get there. Victoria seems determined to reach zero-case status. NSW might have to take the political and economic risk and implement a Victorian-style lockdown, rather than continuing to pressure the other jurisdictions to adopt NSW’s weaker “suppression” model. Their penalty is rejection by the rest of the country if there is suspicion that there are undetected infections that could be imported.
We need better quarantine management of international arrivals
To reach zero-case status or any kind of normality, Australia (and New Zealand), in addition to eradicating local transmissions, have to ensure no new infections enter their communities from overseas.
Hotel quarantining is like a rusty bucket – a leakage waiting, and certain, to happen. The risk from quarantining international arrivals in city-based hotels is way too high in terms of the devastation it could wreak on the economy, on our health systems and on our lifestyles.
If possible, quarantining needs to be moved away from Australian population centres into remote or secure locations such as those used as immigration detentions centres. This policy was used in the early stages of the virus. International arrivals should be flown there directly and not to any major airport or centre.
If remote quarantining is not possible, international arrivals should be severely curtailed.
As we listen to evidence given at Victoria’s hotel quarantine inquiry, we hear example after example of systemic breakdown in practically every aspect of the hotel quarantine system since the end of March. But the problem is nationwide, and we still hear of people “escaping” from quarantine, security guards becoming infected or anecdotes of pandering to the “quarantined”, such as allowing them to make regular visits to the nearest bottle shop.
The chance of the virus escaping from quarantine somewhere in the country is way too high for the consequences that would flow.
In Part 2 we consider overseas arrivals in more detail to examine the risks of infections leaking from the hotel quarantine system.
Robin Boyle lectured in statistics at Deakin University and preceding institutes for three decades until 2009. His academic background in mathematics, economics and finance, as well as statistics, led him to developing teaching software in those areas and to be widely sought after as a textbook author.
Comments
10 responses to “Zero-case status is the best Covid-19 option for Australia – and that means stronger controls over international arrivals (Part 1 of 2)”
Victoria, NSW and Queensland together presumably make up most of the Australian population and economy, so I am not sure they are “forced” to seek “zero-case status” as a goal just because WA, NT, Tasmania and SA have achieved it.
It may be that “zero-case status” is the right goal to seek. But it seems perfectly feasible for Victoria, NSW and Queensland to allow travel within the 3 states, and restrict travel to the rest of Australia.
“Zero-case status” seems easier to achieve for populations that are remote and less connected to the rest of the world. Victoria, NSW and Q’land have to decide whether they want to follow the other states and reduce connection to the rest of the world, or if that goal is too difficult to achieve given how integrated their economies are to the rest of the world.
Just some “counterpoints” to consider …
Hi Kien. Great to have some counterpoints. Below is part of a reply I posted earlier to a comment on Part 2. It might be relevant. Possibly travel between jurisdictions is a minor matter compared to having a close to normal life at home.
In my two articles the emphasis was that the zero-case
jurisdictions are almost back to normal and are likely to drive what
happens in the country overall. It seems that Qld, NSW and Victoria
along with NZ want to join them, based on the way they are tackling the
virus, and apparently succeeding. Will that make Australia and NZ better
off than other countries? Community elimination, with vigilance against
spasmodic outbreaks, will be a choice the two countries make and one
they will have to live with.
Hi, thank you for taking time to read my comment! I don’t have anything useful to add, and do accept that it is reasonably open to NSW, Victoria & Q’land to seek “zero-case status”. I would also agree that this is easier to achieve in Australia than other countries.
I do have a personal request. Please could you consider how the proposed quarantine on international travellers would affect Australian residents (citizens, PR) with relatives and friends abroad? I myself would like to be able to travel at least once a year to visit my mother, and would also like for her to visit.
I am fine with being in quarantine for 14 days, but I don’t think I could afford to pay for the cost of being quarantined in hotel. I am fine with being quarantined at home, and wearing an ankle bracelet which records my movement during the quarantine period.
If quarantine means staying at a hotel room for 14 days at my own cost, it won’t be feasible for me to travel even once a year. I suspect many other residents of Australia would also feel the same.
Anyway, perhaps you could give this some thought.
Definitely something we need to think about.
Looking to achieve zero cases may be the logical objective of current policies, but that doesn’t make it either desirable or acceptable. While the result may be the loosing of state borders, it is merely turning the current “lock-down” and confinement into a new version of the old prison colony, and relies on excessive state surveillance and control of the prison population. In time we will come to see also that while countries like India and Indonesia develop herd immunity and return to normal social relations and work, those who have followed our path will remain fearful, depressed and bankrupt, and at the mercy of their leaders and the health and security corporations who benefit. The heavily suppressed protests in Melbourne at the weekend have demonstrated that only force and punishment can control an increasingly desperate and angry population, and may not succeed.
Hi David. The states with zero cases don’t have the lock down conditions of Victoria and seem to have returned to close to normality, including normal social relations and work. It is depressing in Victoria, as Gary pointed out, but if we want to join the other states the current restrictions might be the only way.
This is incredibly depressing, especially for a Victorian. Is there anyone left in the Victorian public service? Does Victoria even still have hotel quarantine? It seems we are still not taking our share of international arrivals, so are we waiting for the judicial inquiry to tell us how to fix it? This morning’s Age reported how the Department of Environment pulled its staff from hotel quarantine after two months of being unable to get straight answers to how the system was supposed to work. Add to this the account in the Saturday Paper of the farcical attempts at contact tracing in this state and you have to wonder. Surely there must be someone left who has the phone number of a consultant who can tell them how to make it all right?!
Despite a good start, your conclusion of your article is poor.
My wife is currently trapped outside of Australia in Barcelona. She is unable to return due to the cap on international arrivals leading to flights being unavailable, and remains in a precarious situation with no support.
It is the state and federal governments’ responsibility to operate quarantine for inbound visitors. Simply because it is difficult does not mean that it can be avoided, and to do so is a dereliction of the duty of the government. Spend more money, fix the system, increase arrival caps. The human cost of not doing so is perverse.
International arrivals are already severely curtailed, resulting in a human cost to stranded Australian citizens which is unconscionable.
I cover international arrivals in Part 2. It includes the argument for using remote facilities, federally controlled or otherwise, for quarantining, which also allows for the arrival cap to be raised as it reduces the risk of leakage into our cities and suburbs.