To achieve and continue with zero-case status we need to minimise the risk there will be a major breach in our current systems for quarantining international arrivals.
How many new infections are arriving from overseas?
New Zealand is an excellent case study for Australia because of the early success they had against COVID-19 and the determination they show to control it.
By August 9 New Zealand had achieved 100 days without community transmission of the coronavirus. Two days later, matters went awry when an Auckland family of four tested positive. A breach of their international quarantine system is believed to be the most likely source.
New Zealand’s previous last case of community transmission dated back to the 22 May 2020. Since early June to mid-August they had around 70 overseas arrivals classified as COVID-19 overseas acquired, an average of one a day. The 70 included 6 infections via the USA, 6 via Hong Kong, 11 via UAE, 21 via Australia (possibly in transit) and 23 via India. Infected individuals end up in quarantine with the other 270 who arrive (on average) from overseas each day. They are quarantined for a fortnight, meaning a rolling total of around 4,000 at any one time, with about 14 in their midst with the virus. In fact, on the 22 August they had 5,506 in managed quarantine.
Was it inevitable that the virus would get loose into the New Zealand community due to a breach in quarantine?
Australian data is not so readily available. Using Department of Health fortnightly reports we estimate for June and July combined, Australia had approximately 450 COVID-19 infected international arrivals. That averaged around 7.5 per day. We have no data on the country of COVID-19 acquisition for these arrivals and whether they were Australian citizens or non-citizens.
This table summarises provisional ABS data on the number of international arrivals (citizens and non-citizens). We will concentrate on June and July 2020, but the other columns provide useful comparisons.
| All arrivals – State or Territory of clearance – provisional estimates (Source: ABS) | ||||||
| State of Clearance | Jul-19 | May-20 | Jun-20 | Jul-20 | Jun-20 to Jul-20
% change |
Jul-19 to Jul-20
% change |
| NSW | 772,040 | 9,750 | 11,670 | 11,220 | -3.90% | -98.50% |
| Vic. | 557,180 | 5,920 | 6,360 | 30 | -99.60% | -100.00% |
| Qld | 393,650 | 2,150 | 4,500 | 2,970 | -34.10% | -99.20% |
| SA | 56,280 | 0 | 290 | 380 | 31.90% | -99.30% |
| WA | 211,560 | 1,170 | 1,760 | 2,900 | 64.60% | -98.60% |
| Tas. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| NT | 17,990 | 210 | 890 | 780 | -12.80% | -95.70% |
| ACT | 4,310 | 210 | 300 | 10 | -95.90% | -99.70% |
| Australia | 2,013,010 | 19,410 | 25,770 | 18,280 | -29.00% | -99.10% |
The average daily number of international arrivals for June and July combined was about 720. This means an average of about 1 in 100 infected arrivals (higher than the 1 in 270 for New Zealand). Assuming similar patterns since, we estimate that with a 14-day stay this means there is a rolling total of around 10,000 in hotel quarantine at any one time, about 100 of whom arrived infected.
The provisional data for June and July 2020 combined show that of the total of 44,050 arrivals from overseas, 24,800 were Australian citizens returning, though it is not known in which country they embarked or spent most of their time. The other 19,250 arrivals were non-citizens, including 1,430 from the UK, 1,810 from China, 1,020 from the USA, 1,850 from India, 580 from Pakistan, 510 the Philippines and 410 Indonesia.
On this we note certain inconsistencies from the federal government. By the 11 March, non-Australians from Italy, South Korea, Iran and China were not allowed into Australia within 14 days of them leaving those countries. On that date, Italy had less than 13,000 cases, South Korea less than 8,000 cases, Iran 9,000 and China about 81,000 (though eventually only reaching around 85,000). Yet we – like New Zealand – are currently allowing arrivals from hotspot countries or regions with much worse records: the UK currently with over 390,000 COVID-19 cases, US over 6 million, India over 4.5 million and Pakistan close to 300,000. Not to mention other countries on their second waves.
Why we need to move quarantining away from our cities
With it being carried out in CBD hotels, it is just a matter of time before any of the states receiving overseas arrivals go from zero cases to multiple cases, and we might have another Victoria on our hands.
Are the consequences worth it?
All international arrivals should be isolated geographically away from population centres, such as when Australians were flown from Wuhan to Exmouth in WA and then on to Christmas Island and passengers from the Diamond Princess were flown direct to Darwin for quarantine in the NT. There are various immigration detention and quarantine centres and other suitable remote facilities around the country.
We need to apply the “pub test” to arrivals, whether Australian citizens or not. Thus, flying into Australia starts with a trip to the airport in a major foreign city, like London, Delhi or New York. This is followed by check-in queues, escalators and lifts, immigration queues, security checks, airport lounges, boarding and sitting in planes, stopovers requiring similar activities, and disembarkation in Australia. All that is before reaching a quarantine hotel.
Thus, if you had the virus before departure, how many would you have infected on your travels? And if you didn’t start with the virus, what is the chance you have picked it up by the time you reach your hotel? And what is the chance someone at the hotel – hotel and security staff, your fellow “guests” and the medical staff who will treat you – will catch the virus as a result? And then what is the chance someone will take it into the community?
These chance factors are of course unquantifiable. But risk clearly exists at multiple points. The risk might be miniscule, but the consequences are gargantuan.
If international arrivals can’t be geographically isolated from population centres, then international arrivals have to be cut back significantly.
For those stranded overseas, what is more important are those of us already here who – like them – can’t see our families and who can’t find a job. Get Australia in order and then people can return to a country where their families are still alive and where there are jobs for the taking. A positive spin-off of remote quarantining could be lifting the arrival cap numbers. However, more arrivals almost certainly mean more infections, and lifting the cap in the current system would only add to the risk of leakage from quarantine.
Which model will Australia end up with?
As the pandemic has progressed, Scott Morrison’s overall control has been diminished as state leaders have increasingly defied or ignored him.
His response has often been erratic, straw-clutching and coercive: ‘off to the rugby’, ‘open the schools’, ‘open the state borders’, ‘the CovidSafe tracking app’, ‘supporting Clive Palmer v WA’, ‘the vaccine(s) just around the corner’ and ‘open the state borders’ again.
Worryingly, most recently we have his promotion of NSW’s “suppression” model over the community “elimination” model everywhere else.
The Premier of NSW seems to be saying that “zero-cases is impossible” – even while other states and territories have been there for months. The New Zealand PM, within hours of the August 11 cluster appearing, put Auckland into Level 3 lockdown and the rest of the country into Level 2.
Five jurisdictions out of eight with community elimination is an amazing result by any measure, worldwide. With some luck, despite being pushed in another direction by our PM and his senior ministers, all of our eight states and territories and New Zealand will achieve zero-case status and our whole country can live in peace until the COVID-19 problem is solved, albeit with a little bit less wealth.
The PM can help out by concentrating on the role where he made his name. That is, by introducing controls on our international borders to minimise unwanted consequences from overseas arrivals and by making widespread use of our extensive immigration and refugee detention facilities.
Robin Boyle lectured in statistics at Deakin University and preceding institutes for three decades until 2009. His academic background in mathematics, economics and finance, as well as statistics, led him to developing teaching software in those areas and to be widely sought after as a textbook author.
Robin Boyle lectured in statistics at Deakin University and preceding institutes for three decades until 2009. His academic background in mathematics, economics and finance, as well as statistics, led him to developing teaching software in those areas and to be widely sought after as a textbook author.
Comments
9 responses to “Zero-case status is the best COVID-19 option for Australia – And that means stronger controls over international arrivals (Part 2 of 2)”
For how many years would we have to keep this quarantining system running? Forever?
The virus is not going away and we have no idea how long it will take to find an effective vaccine and run it out across the population. We are paying dearly for this tunnel vision obsession with Covid 19 which the Australian records show primarily kills old people. (97 per cent of those who have died are over sixty.)
Meanwhile, thanks to the lockdowns young and working age people will die. The are not having their cancers detected (a 30 per cent drop has been recorded); domestic violence is up; elective surgery which can help to lengthen lives is not being conducted; sedentary behaviour, with adverse health consequences is enforced by government; youth self-harm and calls to suicide lines are up; and unemployment is up dramatically.
The terrifying impact of the lockdown has yet to come. In about a year’s time many young people find themselves repeatedly rejected when they apply for jobs and they will come to believe that their lives are hopeless. This pattern is well known.
Rather than an obsession with Covid 19 let’s see a statistician look at the whole picture.
There is a lot of confidence that there will be a vaccine soon, which should mean the end of quarantining. And confidence of more effective treatments.
Victoria is suffering with issues such as those you mention. However, in my two articles the emphasis was that the zero-case jurisdictions are almost back to normal and are likely to drive what happens in the country overall. It seems that Qld, NSW and Victoria along with NZ want to join them, based on the way they are tackling the virus, and apparently succeeding. Will that make Australia and NZ better off than other countries? Community elimination, with vigilance against spasmodic outbreaks, will be a choice the two countries make and one they will have to live with.
I wish it was true that a vaccine will be available soon but according to testimony given yesterday to the US Senate yesterday by Robert Redfield from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director most of the American public will not have access to a vaccine against the novel coronavirus until late spring or summer of next year. He is not alone in that. Most experts seem to think that a vaccine cannot be rolled out in under a year to eighteen months. On top of that we don’t know how effective any vaccine will be. The vaccine has to be both effective and widely rolled out. There are reported cases of people getting Covid 19 more than once. That does not bode well for the chances of an effective vaccine.
To stay at zero case states like WA, Qld etc will have to stop people in their states visiting relatives from other states and having those relatives visit them; they would have to stop visiting overseas relatives; they would have to stop international students coming and going; specialists workers and seasonal workers coming and going. This is not to mention ordinary tourism, such as WA residents’ trips to Bali. And on top of that people will break the rules. Alternatively they would have to have super efficient quarantine and screening arrangements for all such movements.
The reality is that the virus, like the common cold or the flu, is not going away.
If the country as a whole can get to zero cases in the community, all interstate travel, at least, will open up
Let’s hope we do get down to zero community transmission but I suspect this is wishful thinking.
I absolutely agree with your argument to relocate arrivals outside the CBDs of our biggest cities. I can’t understand why the federal government didn’t, couldn’t or shouldn’t take control of arrivals, since anyone arriving, even Australian citizens, in normal times is subjected to checks and controls by the Department of Immigration and the Border Force. The carry-on about the alleged ‘offer’ of ADF personnel is a fig-leaf covering the abandonment of federal responsibility and the ad hoc adoption of an inherently gimcrack quarantine-in-city-hotels system which was bound to fail somewhere.
Yes Andrew, it is a bit hard to comprehend. The concept of using remote facilities is in the news at the moment. A statement from the federal government saying why they can’t or won’t use remote facilities would help. It is almost as if they want to make it even more difficult for the states.
No mention of foreign students. Surely their mooted arrival should receive some attention?
Hi Richard. South Australia announced a limited number of international students might be allowed to arrive, and it seems they would quarantine as for others.