![Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with C5+1 Foreign Ministers during a C5 Ministerial Meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, on February 28, 2023. [State Department photo by Chuck Kennedy/ Public Domain]](https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Blinken-and-C51-leaders_c.jpg)
Over the past two years, there has been an increasing global interest in Central Asia, which encompasses Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan.
This attention can be attributed to various factors, including the president of China’s official visit to these countries in late 2022, the growing relationship between Turkey and Central Asia, as demonstrated by President Erdogan’s recent visit, and the visit of the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kazakhstan in early March. These high-level visits and engagements indicate the growing importance of the region and its potential impact on global politics and economics.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has prompted the United States to reconsider the strategic importance of Central Asia. However, the geopolitical complexity lies in the fact that Central Asia is caught between the competing interests of Russia and China. Despite being political and economic allies with Russia, the Central Asian countries have not officially supported or opposed Russia’s position on the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, the president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has made it clear that Kazakhstan has no intention of recognising the independence of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine. Some have even accused Central Asian countries of helping Russia avoid economic sanctions, potentially putting themselves at risk of economic sanctions. The recent visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kazakhstan and his meeting with the foreign ministers of the other Central Asian countries signals the US’s renewed interest in the region and its efforts to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape of Central Asia.
The United States has long prioritised building close relationships with Central Asian countries and has pursued a diplomatic partnership called C5+1 to foster advanced cooperation through ministerial-level meetings, expert consultations, and thematic working groups. During his recent visit to the region, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken engaged in bilateral discussions with each foreign minister and attended a C5+1 gathering of the region’s foreign ministers in Astana, Kazakhstan. He also met with the leaders of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to discuss regional issues and US priorities in the region. While the official position of the US is to encourage Central Asian countries to reduce their reliance on Russia and diversify their economic relationships, this is easier said than done. For instance, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister, Mukhtar Tleuberdi, has acknowledged that it is difficult to sever ties with Russia given the countries’ deeply interconnected economies and Kazakhstan’s desire to avoid the negative consequences of sanctions. In recognition of these challenges, the US has pledged $25 million in support of the Economic Resilience Program for Central Asian countries.
When analysing Blinken’s visit to Central Asia, it is important to consider that while it may signal to China and Russia that the US is willing to challenge their influence in the region, it is unlikely to diminish the existing connections between Central Asia and these two countries. To understand the US interest in Central Asia, we must delve into the key factors at play.
Central Asia has been historically under Russia’s sphere of influence, but there are now indications that the region is attempting to maintain itself. Russia’s current focus on Ukraine has drawn attention away from managing its influence in Central Asia. It remains uncertain whether the US or China will challenge Russia’s control of the region, but it is worth noting that China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which includes significant economic investments in Central Asian countries, could give it a more influential role in the region.
The second factor is that the US is looking to strengthen its security relationships with the Central Asian states, as it seeks to maintain its influence in Eurasia after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US is aware of the strategic importance of Central Asia and recognises the need to maintain a foothold in the region to counter potential security threats and ensure regional stability. This approach is part of the US’s broader geopolitical strategy to maintain its presence in key regions around the world.
The significance of Blinken’s visit to Central Asia underscores the growing recognition of the region as an important player in the international arena. However, all countries need to exercise caution in their actions and approach to foreign policy, especially in the context of the multi-vector foreign policy pursued by Central Asian states. Given the complexities of regional geopolitics and the competing interests of major powers, it is imperative that countries in the region carefully navigate their relationships with external actors to safeguard their national interests and maintain stability.
Guests author Mukhtar Amanbaiuly
Mukhtar Amanbaiuly Undergraduate Student at Nazarbayev University School of Sciences and Humanities Political Science and International Relations.