The Farrer by-election result marks a dramatic collapse in Liberal support and signals a broader shift in Australian politics as One Nation surges.
It is impossible to exaggerate the disastrous performance of the Liberal Party in the by-election for the seat of the party’s former (briefly) leader, Sussan Ley. In just over 12 months more than half of the people who voted Liberal when she was the candidate changed their allegiance and voted for One Nation or an independent.
What was once a relatively safe Liberal seat became the first seat won by One Nation in a House of Representatives election. Ever.
The Farrer result tells us the Liberal Party no longer has safe seats in provincial Australia. We learned in the last two federal elections that there are no safe Liberal seats in what used to be its heartland – the better-off electorates in our major cities. What’s left?
The Nationals are yet to be tested by this resurgent One Nation party. But it too failed in Farrer, in areas outside the provincial cities. The combined vote for the Liberal and National Party candidates was about 21 per cent.
Only seven weeks ago voters in South Australia dumped the Liberals in favour of One Nation. The Liberals managed to win just 18.9 per cent of the vote, One Nation 22.9 per cent. The Liberals just retained their status as the official opposition, with five seats in the Legislative Assembly to four won by One Nation. But not much of a consolation.
The rise of One Nation this year, and the fall of the Coalition (mainly the Liberals) has been reflected in all the major opinion polls. Both the Coalition and One Nation have been recording support in the mid-20s with One Nation occasionally scoring better than the Liberals, but mostly not.
In a few polls One Nation has reached 27 per cent, and one recent poll pushed it to 28 per cent. Until the South Australian election it was difficult to accept that such support for One Nation was credible. After all, its actual results in recent elections have shown it supported by around five per cent of voters and in Farrer in 2025 it received 6.6 per cent of the vote.
On Saturday, One Nation blew away all those doubts. Its candidate, David Farley, won more than 40 per cent of the vote. With preferences he is likely to finish with about 60 per cent – putting Farrer into the ‘safe’ category – for One Nation!
The distribution of preferences adds another chapter to the Liberal tale of woe. As was well publicised during the campaign, both the Liberals and Nationals recommended that their voters preference One Nation higher than the independent, Michelle Milthorpe. Everyone (including the betting markets) anticipated the final battle for the seat after preferences would be between Farley and Milthorpe.
It appears as though many Coalition voters disapproved of the Liberal wish to preference One Nation above Milthorpe. Only about 60 per cent of them followed the Coalition how-to-vote card. Its bad enough that so many former Liberal voters switched to One nation; worse that many of those who remained loyal to the Liberal Party rejected its official preference ticket. Another problem for the Liberal leadership to contemplate.
The Farrer vote leaves the Liberal Party federally on the brink of irrelevance. True, it governs with a good majority in Queensland, but Queensland voters in the past have shown that they are willing and able to elect One Nation candidates at the expense of the Liberal National Party.
Of more immediate concern for the Liberal Party is the state election in Victoria, due later this year. The Liberals have been banking on winning in Victoria against a Labor Party that is tired, tied too closely to the unions and of questionable competence.
The Liberals have had their own internal problems, but they have looked as though they could win back government in Victoria.
The biggest obstacle to the Liberals winning in Victoria however is One Nation. If its surge in popularity and electoral support in South Australia and in Farrer carries through into Victoria it will be the Liberals who will suffer the most.
Given Pauline Hanson’s federal ambitions, it would surprising if One Nation did not try to make its mark in the Victorian elections. Success for it there would be disastrous for the Liberal Party.
David Solomon is a former legal and political correspondent. He has degrees in Arts and Law and a Doctorate of Letters. He was Queensland Integrity Commissioner 2009-2014.