With Trump in the White House, geopolitics has returned to the realm of great power relations. (more…)
Geoff Raby
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China’s digital sputnik moment
DeepSeek was virtually unknown when the year began. It is now shaking global stock markets and being called a “sputnik moment” for the US. Last month, xiao hong shi (Little Red Book) also emerged from seemingly nowhere, as US TikToc users began migrating en masse to this Chinese social media site in anticipation of TikTok being shut down. These follow a string of announcements by China’s digital tech giants on new developments in high-end semiconductor chips. (more…)
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Strategic space in a bounded global order: China, Russia and America
Geoff Raby AO, former Australian ambassador to China, discusses with Michael Lester the remaking of the global order in his book Great Game On: The Contest for Central Asia and Global Supremacy (Melbourne University Press, 2024). (more…)
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Trump: a reality check for Australia
On Tuesday the American people spoke with clarity and determination. They voted for jobs, secure borders and to be able to look to the future in an uncertain world with confidence and optimism. What we know from Trump 1.0 is that he his true to his word. (more…)
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The China Threat has now become the Chussia Anxiety
The West need not fear a Chussia aligned against it. It instead needs to develop geopolitical strategies to deal with China as the dominant power in Eurasia. For like the United States at the end of the nineteenth century when it consolidated its borders and established hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, China has consolidated its security in Eurasia and is now free to project power globally. (more…)
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A new global order has arrived
When justifying vast increases in defence expenditure, subsidies for so-called critical industries, foreign aid as an increasingly important element in the securitisation of foreign policy, governments and conservative think tanks never tire of telling the public that they live in the most dangerous of times. (more…)
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Great game on: China’s ascendency in Eurasia and the West’s Chussia anxiety
Dr Geoff Raby AO, Australian Ambassador to China 2007-2011, Chairman, Geoff Raby & Associates, will address the National Press Club of Australia on “Great Game On: China’s ascendency in Eurasia and the West’s Chussia Anxiety”. (more…)
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The deputy sheriff rides again
In recent days, Australia’s ‘”deputy Sheriff” role has been on full display again in our foreign policy. The prime minister’s extraordinary gaff at the Pacific Islands Leaders Forum, when caught out joshing along with US Deputy Secretary of State, Kurt Campbell, would have been noted not just among Pacific Island leaders, who would be entitled to feel belittled by Australia, but also across the region. (more…)
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Peak China? Judge by outcomes not ideology
Distinguishing in part between cyclical and structural economic challenges facing China, (eg, real estate busts vis further urbanisation potential) Geoff Raby, AO, former Australian Ambassador to China, to APEC and WTO, is sceptical of arguments propounding ‘peak china’ economic growth. (more…)
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Mr Modi goes to Moscow
Putin has done it again. Prime Minister Modi will visit Moscow as his first overseas destination since his re-election. And Modi has again demonstrated that India pursues an independent foreign policy. While this visit will come as a shock to Western policy makers. It also strikes a blow at efforts to isolate Russia internationally, while China will also be concerned. (more…)
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China and Russia have one bed but different dreams
Russian weakness has enabled China to emerge as Eurasia’s dominant power. But it also limits the partnership of the two. (more…)
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End of peak China?
It is easy these days to grab a headline about the end of peak China. China’s imminent economic stagnation is becoming conventional wisdom, unless of course one happens to be in the resources, energy, green industry, or automobile sectors, just to name a few. There, China’s demand continues to surge or, alternatively, depending on the sector, China’s capacity threatens extinction of foreign competitors. (more…)
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What’s next for China-Australia relations?
CGTN Radio host Liu Kun interviews Ambassador Tony Kevin, Ambassador Geoff Raby and Dr. Zhao Hai on Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent trip to Australia and broader China-Australia relations. (more…)
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China steals a march on a distracted world
For China these days it doesn’t get much easier to pursue it geostrategic objectives. With the US distracted on two fronts in Europe and the Middle East, and Russia mired in its intractable invasion of Ukraine, among the great powers, China is largely free to advance its interests on an increasingly global scale. Sabre rattling over Taiwan only further serves to distract the US from China’s much larger game. (more…)
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Deploying to the Red Sea a test of US fealty
It is worth considering when exactly deploying our military assets in Australia’s interests becomes a test of fealty to the United States, and an act of ‘‘mateship’’. (more…)
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Albanese’s China visit: an ear to the future
Fifty years’ ago, the grainy black and white image of Whitlam with his ear pressed against the listening wall at Beijing’s Temple of Heaven, led to the joke: What is being said to Gough? Answer: ‘Mei you!’ The ubiquities response then by Chinese service staff in restaurants and stores in those day, loosely, ‘don’t have any’. (more…)
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Cheng Lei’s release a win for diplomacy
Make no mistake, had the Australian Government not changed last year, Chen Lei would still be languishing in her miserable detention cell, denied access to her children, relatives, and friends. (more…)
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Another brick laid building the new order
The recently concluded summit of the five member states of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) agreed to expand membership to include from next January Saudi Arabia, Iran, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE. Western media and commentators’ responses have been a farrago of sneering at the unlikely hodgepodge of countries that will now be members, raising the spectre that this group is setting itself up in opposition to the G7, and is an anti-West alliance of Global South members. (more…)
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Muddled on the Middle Kingdom
Anthony Albanese needs to see for himself what the Chinese economic miracle looks like close up. (more…)
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China is going to be the great winner from Putin’s strife
Russia’s failed attempt to make Ukraine into a buffer state is only helping China’s statecraft on its own western borders. (more…)
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Why a different world order is already here
US primacy is being replaced by two orders led by Washington and Beijing. Canberra’s job is to make the US understand what has happened. (more…)
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Penny Wong and Paul Keating need to have this vital debate
Australia now has an adventurous and activist foreign policy again. But it has not answered the questions that the former prime minister raises. (more…)
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Australian journalists in China: Send them back!
In August, it will be three years since Australia’s China-based correspondents were harried out of China. In an extraordinary over-reaction, the ABC, Fairfax, and News Corp closed their offices in Beijing and Shanghai. (more…)
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China’s big foreign policy plays leave Australia in the cold
The Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress in October last year may be seen with the efflux of time as a watershed event, not so much for the extension of Xi Ping’s tenure in the job, but for subsequent sharp policy resets. (more…)
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China: decoupling from the West and winning the long game
With the re-opening of China and with the ending of Covid restrictions, a new confidence seems to be surging through the country. While the next two years are seen to be a particularly dangerous time, with the real prospect of armed conflict with the US, beyond that it is felt that China’s time will have come. Australians are now largely denied this view since the timorous Australian media is no longer present in China. (more…)
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Best of 2022: Australia’s China threat industry led by Sydney Morning Herald takes a hit
Above a picture of a tired looking Xi Jinping – taken at the G20 – the Sydney Morning Herald ran the headline: The Face of Capitulation. It was as banal as it was predictable. It was for a Peter Hartcher story that crowed at having slayed the dragon (sub-text: this was Hartcher’s personal victory). (more…)
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Penny Wong should go to Beijing for the 50th Anniversary
On 21 December, it will be exactly 50 years since a joint communique establishing diplomatic relations between Australia and the People’s Republic of China was signed in Paris by each country’s Ambassador. To mark the event, it would be normal practice for a ministerial visit in either direction to occur. China is big on commemorative occasions. It does them well. (more…)
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Australia’s China threat industry led by Sydney Morning Herald takes a hit
Above a picture of a tired looking Xi Jinping – taken at the G20 – the Sydney Morning Herald ran the headline: The Face of Capitulation. It was as banal as it was predictable. It was for a Peter Hartcher story that crowed at having slayed the dragon (sub-text: this was Hartcher’s personal victory). (more…)
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Finding a way on China ties
Beijing and Canberra remain deadlocked in a trade war. But there is a step-by-step means for both parties to climb down gracefully. (more…)
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Defence Strategic Review-Prometheus bound – China the constrained superpower
Several contributors to this series have argued that China should not be seen as a military threat to Australia. Their arguments are based on historical, political, and cultural grounds, or all three. Henry Kissinger in his 2011 book On China concluded similarly. (more…)