Ren Zeping’s almost frantic call one week ahead of Beijing’s dramatic loosening of monetary policy. (more…)
Category: Economy
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Nasrallah is dead but Bibi hasn’t won
Many people now mourn Nasrallah’s death, in Lebanon and elsewhere, but Hezbollah’s existence is nowhere near in question. (more…)
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If we can’t have vision, let’s have boldness and strength of purpose
One should never feel sympathy for a politician caught in a rule-in rule-out game. Perhaps the period should be after the eighth word, but there is something spectacularly dumb about foreclosing on policy options even when they are not under active contemplation, narrowing the range of debate and allowing its terms to be set by the opposition. All the more so when, as experienced politicians well know, there are formulae of words ready to serve to convert a possibility into a non-story. (more…)
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Market hits record high
The All-Ords was in a sideways trading range between early February and early August and then dived. Since then, it has not only rebounded but escaped its former range ceiling and is now trading at a record high. (more…)
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Building a new global economic order: The role of BRICS
Over the past few decades, the Western economic system has shifted increasingly towards financialisation, prioritising the creation of paper wealth through financial markets rather than real economic output. This trend has led to significant imbalances, with wealth accumulating disproportionately in financial assets, rather than contributing to tangible improvements in living standards or infrastructure. (more…)
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International comparisons of monetary policy
Much of the expert commentary on Australia’s monetary policy settings is guided by what is happening in other countries. However, monetary tightening can have a markedly different impact in different countries, and while Australia appears to have been more cautious, so far it seems to have managed well. (more…)
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China solar giant Trina seeks approval for biggest battery project in Australia
The Chinese-based solar giant Trina Solar has submitted plans to build what would be the biggest battery storage facility in Australia, at Kemerton in an industrial zone south of Perth. (more…)
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China and the West: commercial pragmatism versus political resistance
Echoing the sentiment often associated with Calvin Coolidge, who famously said, ‘The chief business of the American people is business,’ the reasoning from a business perspective is straightforward: China delivers. Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory stands as a testament to this, producing hundreds of thousands of electric vehicles annually. Chinese firms like BYD and CATL lead in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors, illustrating how partnerships with China are driven by practical needs rather than ideology. The 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer shows that confidence in Chinese firms, especially in tech and energy, is growing among business leaders, who prioritise results over political narratives. (more…)
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What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?
Donald Trump inherited a strong economy from President Barack Obama and managed it poorly. (more…)
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Driving VW off a cliff: Germany’s lemming strategy and what it means for us
Something absolutely stupefying is happening in Germany: its iconic auto company, VW, the darling of every Chancellor from Adolf Hitler to Olaf Scholz, appears to be in a death spiral. At the end of this story I’ll draw a link to the salutary lesson countries like Australia and New Zealand need to draw from the German experience if we are to survive and thrive in the coming world. (more…)
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Does the Reserve Bank need to change?
Shortly after he became Treasurer, in July 2022, Jim Chalmers announced a review of the Reserve Bank – the first since the current monetary policy arrangements were instituted in the 1990s. (more…)
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Giving Medicare teeth is a chance to fix its flaws
Doctors tried to stop it at first, but half a century later Medicare is an untouchable brand in Australian healthcare and politics. While we’re lucky to have it, Medicare isn’t perfect. Expanding it to cover dental care is long overdue, but that shouldn’t mean repeating Medicare’s mistakes. (more…)
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Albanese has a second chance with AUKUS
Australia is to spend mind-boggling money to weaken its own security. Minister RIchard Marles has released a National Defence Strategy which centres on what he calls “projection”. That is, Australian forces threatening China from China’s surrounding waters. The Albanese Government’s defence policy manufactures grievous risk for Australia. That risk must be understood by the government. (more…)
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Private equity bares its tactics in private healthcare shakedown
An article published in the Medical Journal of Australia earlier this year points to increased private equity (PE) activity in Australian healthcare, conservatively estimating A$4.5 billion in acquisitions across general practice and selected specialties in 2022 alone. The paper refrains from extensive commentary on the drivers and implications of this trend. However, it points to broad international experience suggesting that PE’s elevation of profit above other considerations coincides with underwhelming outcomes for patients, practicing clinicians and funders alike. (more…)
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When should we expect interest rates to fall?
The Reserve Bank has explicitly warned against any expectation that interest rates will start to fall soon. On the other hand, the Treasurer recently claimed that the Reserve Bank is smashing the economy, implying that interest rates should fall soon. Who is right? (more…)
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Australian wheat and the BRI: The economic geography of the world’s grain trading
The global wheat trade is undergoing a transformation, shaped by geopolitical shifts, strategic investments, and historical legacies. Central to this evolution is China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its expected impact on traditional trade relationships, including those with Australia. (more…)
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The contested politics of housing reform
While most Australians remain well-housed, few public policy experts would argue that our housing system is today in good shape. Homelessness continues to increase and both rental and mortgage affordability stress are widespread. (more…)
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Why WA gets the share of GST that it wants
WA Treasurer Rita Saffioti MLA is almost certainly right when she says that there would be a “voter backlash” [in Western Australia] if “you take our [sic] GST”, as reported in The Australian. (more…)
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AUKUS could be the biggest Ponzi scheme in history
Much of the angst being generated by Australia’s worst foreign policy decision since joining the American invasion of Vietnam may well be misplaced. It is unquestionable that the former prime minister and two former foreign ministers have been correct in their assessments of the decision by the Albanese Government to proceed with the AUKUS deal, as being nothing short of disastrous for Australian sovereignty and for our economy, but the question arises, will it ever happen? (more…)
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PNG’s sustainability rests on funding people, not elites
Political and economic pressures are rising in Papua New Guinea (PNG), with escalating social tensions suggesting a need for focused regional support. Critics argue that given ongoing civil unrest, political instability with Rainbo Paita’s challenge to Prime Minister James Marape and substantial economic challenges such as a stagnating minimum wage and increasing poverty, financial aid and strategies should be directed towards supporting the PNG populace rather than bolstering the political elite. (more…)
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Burning the EV bridges with China is risky
While Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are engaged in a tight presidential race by highlighting their differences, they share similar perspectives about China. They both hold the common belief that the imposition of higher tariffs will stimulate economic growth. However, the intricate network of tariffs implemented by both the Trump and Biden administrations is generating trade tensions, adversely affecting American consumers, and hindering innovation. (more…)
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Stewards should have an early look at this roughie racehorse
We can all be grateful that the acting auditor general Rona Mellor has decided to take at least a sideways glance into Commonwealth speculation, alongside a similar bet by the probably outgoing Queensland government, in an American horse in the great quantum computing race. I know nothing to say that there is anything intrinsically dodgy about the “investment,” and it is probably by now a fait accompli. But there are ample warning signs that a lot of bad government thinking is involved, and every prospect that Albanese’s foolish “picking winners” strategy will produce any number of similar fresh “initiatives” as we approach the next election. (more…)
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In August the market dived, but then revived on rate hopes – Monthly economic and market review
The All-Ords share price index plunged 5.8% in the first two trading days of August and then rebounded 5.8% by 30 August. It ended the month just 0.3% short of where it started. (more…)
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Achieving net-zero: is nuclear the answer?
Those most responsible for creating the problems [of climate change] will see it to it that they profit from the solution that they propose. – Arundhati Roy, 2019, quoted in ‘Nuclear is Not the Solution’ MV Ramana (Verso) (more…)
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End the private hospital blame game by exposing the cost of care
The federal Department of Health will soon finish a “health check” of private hospital finances. Warnings of an emerging crisis sparked the review, with private hospital closures, claims that more hospitals are on the brink of collapse, and high-profile disputes between private hospital companies and health insurers. (more…)
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The dangers of AUKUS, the FPA and nuclear submarines
Preparations for Australian involvement in a US-instigated war against China are proceeding steadily. Despite recent polls showing that a majority of the Australian people want to keep out of such a war and stay neutral, Australia’s subservient leadership continues to provide the US military with unimpeded access to our ports, airfields and military bases as they lock us ever more tightly into the US imperial war machine. (more…)
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Missing the point: Chalmers, Dutton and the politics of division
A government is in trouble when it has to utter the banal and reiterate the damnably obvious. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is certainly struggling of late, a state of affairs all the more unspeakable given the calibre of his opponent. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton barely makes the grade of a two-dimensional politician, but has risen in the polls on a drab mixture of resentment, loathing and fear. Such a political approach does not always work but has done so in the past. (more…)
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‘Price-gouging’ and ‘profiteering’ haven’t been major contributors to Australian inflation
Australia’s experience over the past three years of the highest inflation in 35 years is in large part — as it has been in other countries — the result of producers of goods and services, in both the private and public sectors, being able to pass on increases in costs to their customers or clients in the form of higher prices. (more…)
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Path not taken: the Petroleum and Minerals Authority at fifty
Speaking recently on the ABC, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz claimed that Australia was “giving away its natural resources”. This he found “mind-boggling”. Would a sovereign mining company have made a difference? (more…)
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That time when Canada cancelled its nuclear submarine order
Back in 1987, when no one knew that the Cold War was just about to end, the Canadian Government signed up to build 10 nuclear-powered submarines. That submarine program lasted for all of two years before being cancelled in 1989. No nuclear Canadian sub ever even began construction, let alone getting put in the water. (more…)