Category: Economy

  • John Menadue. Is the public sick of reform?

    The business sector and the media have each been asking this question. It is not surprising perhaps in view of Tony Abbott’s plummeting approval rating and the election results in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

    In the Australian Financial Review on 2 February 2015, Laura Tingle said ‘The biggest national question to flow from Queensland’s historic 2015 election result is not whether the Prime Minister will survive, but whether, after 30 years, voters have had enough of political rhetoric about reform and change and whether both sides of politics back away from ambitious reform as a result.’

    Perhaps election day in Queensland was ‘a disappointing day’ for the Business Council of Australia and the ‘reforms’ its rent seeking constituency would like, more privatisation.

    My contention is that the public will respond to well developed and explained policies for change. But that was not what we are being presented with. What we have been hearing about for many months is a burnt out ideological agenda from the Government and the BCA that markets are always right and that privatisation is the way of the future. Surely privatisation reached its high water mark years ago and it has been ebbing ever since.

    Queenslanders have particularly shown that asset sales are now off the agenda. Even the Liberal National Party in Queensland has now disowned asset sales.  It should have learned a lesson from former Queensland Premier, Anna Bligh, who decided that her Labor Government would sell Queensland Rail. She was defeated after a long period of Labor Governments, but the sale of Queensland Rail really soured the public attitude to her government.

    In all these cases of privatisation, there is a strong public perception that wealthy financial advisers, underwriters and brokers have drained hundreds of millions of dollars in fees at the expense of the public.

    It will be interesting to see what the NSW Premier, Mike Baird now does about his proposal to lease the state-owned transmission company Transgrid and over 50% of distribution businesses Ausgrid and Endeavour Energy for 99 years to the private sector. Recent polling by Reach Tel for Stop the Selloff Campaign reveals that 67% of people in Victoria and 74% of people in SA believe that they were worse off with privatised electricity networks.

    The question will also be asked in the NSW election in eight weeks’ time that with the interest rate at record levels, the most prudent thing to do would be to borrow rather than sell valuable assets to build new infrastructure. The 10 year bond rate is the lowest in living memory at 2.25%. We could lock in a record low interest borrowing for 10 years. With our inflation rate at about the same as the bond rate the real interest rate would be close to zero.

    At the national level Tony Abbott has not put forward well-developed and explained policies. At the last election, he had a lot of one-liners but very little developed thought on policy. Tony Abbott didn’t win the last election with his so-called ‘policies’ he won because of the shambles of the Rudd/Gillard era.

    Tony Abbott’s wrecking ball approach which was so successful in opposition is not working in government. His policies have not been carefully developed and explained. In his National Press Club speech he spent a large amount of time trying to sheet home responsibility to the Rudd and Gillard governments rather than defend his own record and explaining his vision for the future.

    The public is clearly not impressed with policies like asset sales and taxes that benefit big business and the wealthy, but leave the public the loser. That is why Joe Hockey’s budget is in ruins. It was regarded as unfair. No attempt was made to wind back the benefits of the generous superannuation concessions, concessions on the capital gains tax, negative gearing, salary packaging and the very widespread failure of wealthy companies, many of them international, to pay tax – Apple, Google, Glencorp, Westfield, News Corp and Ikea.

    I am confident that the public will respond to well-developed policies that are efficient and fair.

    Tony Abbott has never developed a credible narrative. He has not thought much beyond one-liners. He has done very little in credible reform and the bits and pieces he talks about don’t fit into a coherent story.

    Bill Shorten speaks of 2015 as being the year of ideas.  There’s a lot of policy development to do, but will he go the same way as Tony Abbott and attempt to gain office by default.

    The public is certainly sick of the type of ‘reform’ that we are being offered by the government and its friends in big business. But I am confident that the community, if treated respectfully, will respond to relevant policies that are well developed, tested, fair and properly explained. We have had very little of that in the last 18 months.

     

  • John Menadue. Tony Abbott at the National Press Club

    In his speech today, Tony Abbott recycled many of his one-liners that we heard at the last election. Let’s examine several of them.

    First, he said that his government was a low-taxing government and that it would reduce the budget deficit by reducing spending, rather than increasing taxes. But the most recent mid-year economic forecast shows that tax receipts are increasing substantially as a result of allowing budget creep as people move into higher income tax brackets. Government receipts/taxation are projected to increase by 2% from 22.8% of GDP in 2012-13 to 24.8% in 2017-18. Further the coalition said it would reduce debt. At the end of 2013 actual net debt was $178 b. The Department of Finance tell us that at the end of 2014  the net debt was $239 b, an increase of $61 b or 35%

    Tony Abbott said that he would stop the boats. But despite being told about the success of this ‘signature policy’ and the uncritical response of the media, the facts are that Tony Abbott did not stop the boats. What started the reduction in boat arrivals  was the announcement by Kevin Rudd on 19 July 2013, two months before the last election, that any new boat arrivals would be processed offshore and if found to be refugees, would not be settled in Australia. That was the real game changer, not Operation Sovereign Borders and the turn backs of a few boats to Indonesia.The number of people arriving by boat in July 2013 was 4,145. It fell substantially to 837 by the time the Abbott Government took power. The downward trend began in July 2013, two months before Tony Abbott came to power.

    As part of a dishonest and exaggerated scare campaign, Tony Abbott said that he would abolish the carbon tax. He did. But now without a carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme, we have no credible policy in place to address the growing threat of climate change. If Malcolm Turnbull comes back as leader an emissions trading scheme will be quickly back on the agenda.

    Tony Abbott said that he would abolish the mining tax. And he did – and Australia is much worse off as a result. Giant international mining companies like Glencore are paying very little company tax at all. Is that good economic management and is it fair?

    In his press club speech, Tony Abbott said that his government was on track in the building of roads. But many of the roads he claims to be building are really recycled projects from the previous government which Anthony Albanese had announced. In any event, we don’t need more roads for the reasons I have written about in this blog. We need to invest in new public urban rail systems.

    In his press club address, Tony Abbott complained about the Senate. Certainly the Senate has refused to pass some key government budget items, but that has been because the Senate came to the view, which I generally agree with, that many of the government’s budget proposals were unfair. Furthermore, Tony Abbott now prefers that we forget that at the last election he said that he would not hesitate to take the parliament to a double-dissolution if it was necessary to tame the Senate and the ALP. We have heard nothing more about this threat if the senate continues to misbehave. The media has completely forgotten this threat or was it a promise.

    One liners may be effective in opposition and at election time but they don’t usually make for good policy.

  • Europe and the Greek elections.

    The Greeks have been suffering for decades at the hands of a political and business oligarchy. Corruption and massive tax avoidance have been commonplace. It is not surprising that the Greek people rejected the mainstream parties and have thumbed their noses at the the EU, the European Central Bank and the IMF. Europe looks to be headed into new territory. Leonid Bershidsky on ‘Bloomberg View’ has an interesting take on ‘Syriza, Le Pen and the Power of Big Ideas’.  John Menadue.

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-26/syriza-le-pen-and-the-power-of-big-ideas

  • US Government unveils goal to move Medicare away from fee-for-service.

    On 27/28 and 29 January 2015 I posted three articles on Health Policy Reform. One issue I discussed was the major problem of fee-for-service (FFS) as a means of remunerating doctors. Such a scheme remunerates quantity rather than quality of service.

    On 26 January, the US Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary, Sylvia M. Burwell, outlined a major change in the way that doctors and hospitals will be remunerated in future. She said ‘HHS has set a goal of tying 30% of traditional, or fee-for-service, Medicare payments to quality or value through alternate payment models.  … Today’s announcement would continue the shift towards paying providers for what works, whether it is something as complex as preventing or treating disease, or something as straight-forward as making sure a patient has time to ask questions’.

    See statement by Sylvia M. Burwell below. Australia is increasingly out of touch as we cling to fee-for-service style payments. We are lagging behind most developed countries with FFS and even the US which has the most expensive and inefficient health services in the world.

    Better, Smarter, Healthier: In historic announcement, HHS sets clear goals and timeline for shifting Medicare reimbursements from volume to value

    In a meeting with nearly two dozen leaders representing consumers, insurers, providers, and business leaders, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia M. Burwell today announced measurable goals and a timeline to move the Medicare program, and the health care system at large, toward paying providers based on the quality, rather than the quantity of care they give patients.

    HHS has set a goal of tying 30 percent of traditional, or fee-for-service, Medicare payments to quality or value through alternative payment models, such as Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) or bundled payment arrangements by the end of 2016, and tying 50 percent of payments to these models by the end of 2018.  HHS also set a goal of tying 85 percent of all traditional Medicare payments to quality or value by 2016 and 90 percent by 2018 through programs such as the Hospital Value Based Purchasing and the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Programs.  This is the first time in the history of the Medicare program that HHS has set explicit goals for alternative payment models and value-based payments.

    To make these goals scalable beyond Medicare, Secretary Burwell also announced the creation of a Health Care Payment Learning and Action Network.  Through the Learning and Action Network, HHS will work with private payers, employers, consumers, providers, states and state Medicaid programs, and other partners to expand alternative payment models into their programs.  HHS will intensify its work with states and private payers to support adoption of alternative payments models through their own aligned work, sometimes even exceeding the goals set for Medicare.  The Network will hold its first meeting in March 2015, and more details will be announced in the near future.

    “Whether you are a patient, a provider, a business, a health plan, or a taxpayer, it is in our common interest to build a health care system that delivers better care, spends health care dollars more wisely and results in healthier people.  Today’s announcement is about improving the quality of care we receive when we are sick, while at the same time spending our health care dollars more wisely,” Secretary Burwell said. “We believe these goals can drive transformative change, help us manage and track progress, and create accountability for measurable improvement.”

    “We’re all partners in this effort focused on a shared goal. Ultimately, this is about improving the health of each person by making the best use of our resources for patient good. We’re on board, and we’re committed to changing how we pay for and deliver care to achieve better health,” Douglas E. Henley, M.D., executive vice president and chief executive officer of the American Academy of Family Physicians said.

    “Advancing a patient-centered health system requires a fundamental transformation in how we pay for and deliver care. Today’s announcement by Secretary Burwell is a major step forward in achieving that goal,” AHIP President and CEO Karen Ignagni said. “Health plans have been on the forefront of implementing payment reforms in Medicare Advantage, Medicaid Managed Care, and in the commercial marketplace. We are excited to bring these experiences and innovations to this new collaboration.”

    “Employers are increasingly taking steps to support the transition from payment based on volume to models of delivery and payment that promote value,” said Janet Marchibroda, Health Innovation Director and Executive Director of the CEO Council on Health and Innovation at the Bipartisan Policy Center. “There is considerable bipartisan support for moving away from fee for service toward alternative payment models that reward value, improve outcomes, and reduce costs. This transition requires action not only by the private sector, but also the public sector, which is why today’s announcement is significant.”

    “Today’s announcement will be remembered as a pivotal and transformative moment in making our health care system more patient- and family-centered,” said Debra L. Ness, president of the National Partnership for Women & Families. “This kind of payment reform will drive fundamental changes in how care is delivered, making the health care system more responsive to those it serves and improving care coordination and communication among patients, families and providers. It will give patients and families the information, tools and supports they need to make better decisions, use their health care dollars wisely, and improve health outcomes.”

    The Affordable Care Act created a number of new payment models that move the needle even further toward rewarding quality.  These models include ACOs, primary care medical homes, and new models of bundling payments for episodes of care.  In these alternative payment models, health care providers are accountable for the quality and cost of the care they deliver to patients. Providers have a financial incentive to coordinate care for their patients – who are therefore less likely to have duplicative or unnecessary x-rays, screenings and tests.  An ACO, for example, is a group of doctors, hospitals and health care providers that work together to provide higher-quality coordinated care to their patients, while helping to slow health care cost growth. In addition, through the widespread use of health information technology, the health care data needed to track these efforts is now available.

    Many health care providers today receive a payment for each individual service, such as a physician visit, surgery, or blood test, and it does not matter whether these services help – or harm – the patient. In other words, providers are paid based on the volume of care, rather than the value of care provided to patients. Today’s announcement would continue the shift toward paying providers for what works – whether it is something as complex as preventing or treating disease, or something as straightforward as making sure a patient has time to ask questions.

    In 2011, Medicare made almost no payments to providers through alternative payment models, but today such payments represent approximately 20 percent of Medicare payments. The goals announced today represent a 50 percent increase by 2016. To put this in perspective, in 2014, Medicare fee-for-service payments were $362 billion.

    HHS has already seen promising results on cost savings with alternative payment models, with combined total program savings of $417 million to Medicare due to existing ACO programs – HHS expects these models to continue the unprecedented slowdown in health care spending.  Moreover, initiatives like the Partnership for Patients, ACOs, Quality Improvement Organizations, and others have helped reduce hospital readmissions in Medicare by nearly eight percent– translating into 150,000 fewer readmissions between January 2012 and December 2013 – and quality improvements have resulted in saving 50,000 lives and $12 billion in health spending from 2010 to 2013, according to preliminary estimates.

    To read a new Perspectives piece in the New England Journal of Medicine from Secretary Burwell:http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1500445

    To read more about why this matters: http://www.cms.gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Fact-sheets/2015-Fact-sheets-items/2015-01-26-2.html

    To read a fact sheet about the goals and Learning and Action Network:http://www.cms.gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Fact-sheets/2015-Fact-sheets-items/2015-01-26-3.html

    To learn more about Better Care, Smarter Spending, and Healthier People:http://www.cms.gov/Newsroom/MediaReleaseDatabase/Fact-sheets/2015-Fact-sheets-items/2015-01-26.html

    Participants in today’s meeting include:

    • Kevin Cammarata, Executive Director, Benefits, Verizon
    • Christine Cassel, President and Chief Executive Officer, National Quality Forum
    • Tony Clapsis, Vice President, Caesars Entertainment Corporation
    • Jack Cochran, Executive Director, The Permanente Federation
    • Justine Handelman, Vice President Legislative and Regulatory Policy, Blue Cross Blue Shield Association
    • Pamela French, Vice President, Compensation and Benefits, The Boeing Company
    • Richard J. Gilfillan, President and CEO, Trinity Health
    • Douglas E. Henley, Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer, American Academy of Family Physicians
    • Karen Ignagni, President and Chief Executive Officer, America’s Health Insurance Plans
    • Jo Ann Jenkins, Chief Executive Officer, AARP
    • Mary  Langowski, Executive Vice President for Strategy, Policy, & Market Development, CVS Health
    • Stephen J. LeBlanc, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Network Relations, Dartmouth-Hitchcock
    • Janet M. Marchibroda, Executive Director, CEO Council on Health and Innovation, Bipartisan Policy Center
    • Patricia A. Maryland, President, Healthcare Operations and Chief Operating Officer, Ascension Health
    • Richard Migliori, Executive Vice President, Medical Affairs and Chief Medical Officer, UnitedHealth Group
    • Elizabeth Mitchell, President and Chief Executive Officer, Network for Regional Healthcare Improvement
    • Debra L. Ness, President, National Partnership for Women & Families
    • Samuel R. Nussbaum, Executive Vice President, Clinical Health Policy and Chief Medical Officer, Anthem, Inc.
    • Stephen Ondra, Senior Vice President and Chief Medical Officer, Health Care Service Corporation
    • Andrew D. Racine, Senior Vice President and Chief Medical Officer, Montefiore Medical Center
    • Jaewon Ryu, Segment Vice President and President of Integrated Care Delivery, Humana Inc.
    • Fran S. Soistman, Executive Vice President, Government Services, Aetna Inc.
    • Maureen Swick, Representative, American Hospital Association
    • Robert M. Wah, President, American Medical Association
  • John Menadue. Health Policy Reform: Part 3 – Principles for reform

    In Part 1 of this series I described the areas in our health sector that need reform. In Part 2 I spoke of the obstacles, particularly those imposed by vested interests in the health sector to protect their own interests by delaying or stopping reform. In this article, I will be suggesting ways in which we can overcome these obstacles to health reform. But make no mistake: it will be hard without political leadership and political will.

     

    Don’t rush the process

    The political process encourages parties seeking election or re-election to address problems with high political salience – waiting lists in public hospitals, needs among certain groups with chronic illness, and identified funding gaps. The political response is to develop specific proposals, usually involving carefully-calculated calculations of budgetary costs.

    Such a process, while providing short-term solutions to proximate problems, fails to address the structural problems identified in Part 1 – the fragmented nature of our health care arrangements, inequities, gaps in services, such as dental care, the allocation of resources towards high-cost hospital interventions at the expense of promotion, prevention and primary care, and the distortions associated with private health insurance.

    It also privileges those vested interests outlined in Part 2, who can mobilize resources to block all but the most minor reforms.

    Those pursuing reform need to go over the heads of the vested interests and find out what the community really wants, rather than paternalistically assuming that they know what’s best. In recent years the paternalistic assumption has been that the community prefers tax cuts to improved health services, even though evidence tends to point in the opposite direction.

    System-wide reform takes time. And it takes open minds. Governments need to realize that even when they can set aside their own financial or professional interests, “insiders” find it hard to imagine any significant departures from existing arrangements. That was a major shortcoming of the Rudd Government’s Health and Hospital Reform Commission. Outside perspectives are important.

    In order to lift the process beyond immediate concerns, those pursuing reforms can set out a basic set of principles, and, in a well-managed consultation process, can inform the community of options, and invite the community to discuss and agree or amend these principles. Such a path to reform contrasts with the quick-and-dirty proposals which emerge from processes such as the Abbott Government’s Commission of Audit. Rather, reform can draw on the tradition of white paper – green paper policy development and the reform process pursued by the Hawke-Keating Government. The Senate Committee system should also be utilised.

    Guiding principles

    As in any public policy the basic principle should be pursuit of efficiency and equity. Contrary to some simplistic notions, there is not necessarily a trade-off between these principles. An inefficient system is a high-cost system, and a high-cost system generally tilts the balance towards those who have most ability to pay. That is the basic failure of the United States system.

    Economic considerations should extend beyond governments’ own fiscal costs. Rather they should take into account costs and benefits throughout the community. There is no benefit in saving people $1.00 in taxes through Medicare if the result is that they have to pay $1.10 of $1.50 for the same or inferior services in private markets through PHI.

    Equity should be concerned with ensuring that income, wealth or personal influence does not give individuals preference in treatment, displacing those with greater needs but lesser means.  A related principle should be one of solidarity or social inclusion. This means that all should have access to the same high-quality services, rather than a segregated system with special services for the poor or “indigent”, to use the derogatory American term. In Australia we should resist most strongly the conservative notion that Medicare should be reduced to a safety net for the poor. The same high quality service should be available for all .While people with different means may make different payments, they should all be using the same services. The present “two tier” arrangements, where those with means are more likely to use private hospitals, violate this principle.

    Within such a shared system, there should be scope for users to exercise autonomy and choice, so long as these do not impose costs on other users. Financial incentives on providers and users should not detract from the principles of personal responsibility. Health care services need to be perceived as components of a set of policies promoting good health. In this regard, the community’s health should be seen as an asset worthy of attention in all government policies – taxation, urban design, trade agreements (patents), labour relations and wages policy, social security, environmental protection, sport etc. Public health should be of concern across all portfolios, and health ministers, state and federal, should have the same standing as treasurers.

    The government should consider alternatives to fee-for-service remuneration for primary care and other services. The New Zealand Government, for example, pays episodic care by doctors on a fee-for service basis but chronic care is paid on an annualized basis.

    Health programs should have a user focus, rather than a provider focus. The user drawing on different services should not have to confront multiple institutions with their own funding arrangements, records and protocols of care. Policies should aim to integrate and not merely coordinate medical services, pharmaceutical care, hospital care and rehabilitation. Such flexibility should be guided by the principle of subsidiarity. That is, services should be managed at the most feasible local level, provided such autonomy does not conflict with needs for central standards in important areas.

    Funding needs to be based on a judicious balance between individual (“out-of-pocket”) payments and pooled payments. While a lack of means should never present a barrier to those who need care, there is no reason why those with means should not make personal contributions.

    The balance between individual and collective funding is one which needs community consultation. There are arguments for a completely free, tax-funded system, and there are arguments for more individual payments where price signals play a role, but the choice needs to be put to the community in a way that explains the costs and the benefits of each method of payment. Most probably the community, presented with an informed choice, will opt for some balance.

    For that proportion of costs the community chooses to share, this sharing should be through a single national insurer, with the capacity to use its purchasing power to keep costs under control, and guided by principles of ensuring access for those with limited means and covering all against high expenses. As with other high-cost and heavily-subsidised industries, such as clothing and footwear, the $7b plus per annum subsidy to PHI should be steadily phased out. If people wand private health insurance that is their right but there is no reason for the taxpayer to provide a subsidy.

    While the government should take responsibility for pooled funding, provision of health services should allow for both government and private involvement. In regulated markets private providers should be assured of reasonable returns on their investments (including their investment in human capital), but they should not be permitted to take advantage of any privileged position in the market. Public policies should recognize that commercial incentives which are about expanding markets and good public policy which is often about encouraging personal responsibility and reducing dependence on health services do not always align.

    All systems of remuneration, to private or public providers, should be subject to full accountability, and all services should be subject to the general principles of competition policy but without promoting competition where it serves no public purpose, such as a proliferation of look-alike high-cost private insurers. Accounting systems should expose all instances of cost-shifting – from Commonwealth to state governments, from governments to individuals, and from present outlays to future outlays. While there may be reasons for costs to be reallocated between different parties, such reallocations should be for reasons of equity or efficiency, and not for budgetary impression management.

    All health care services should be subject to professional governance and accountability, with clear charters of responsibility but at arm’s length from executive government. We really don’t know much about how doctors perform in private practise. We hear about occasional mal practise but very little about general performance and competence.

    The related issue of Commonwealth-state relations needs resolution. There are many possible paths to reform. One possibility for consideration is for health services to be administered by joint Commonwealth-state commissions in each state, with pooled Commonwealth and state funding. Tasmania with its small and comparatively aged population could provide the basis for a trial.  See link to ‘The Blame Game in Health’ that I posted on 3 June last year  https://publish.pearlsandirritations.com/blog/?p=1756/.

    The role of institutions

    Health reform is too important to be left to health departments particularly the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing and bodies with superficial mandates such as the recent Commission of Audit.

    Fortunately the Commonwealth has bodies such as the Productivity Commission, an organisation with not only technical expertise to analyse policy proposals, but also with the capacity to sound out those with policy interests. It gives all a forum to voice their concerns, to tease out likely unintended consequences of policy proposals, and to direct corporate interests to contribute to problem-solving and policy design rather than to defending their vested interests. Most important, it can bring an “outside” view to public policy, addressing questions and options that may be beyond the imagination of “insiders”.

    While the Productivity Commission can bring forth practical recommendations, the questions in health reform are so basic, however, that they require a wider and more inclusive process before specific issues can be addressed. Questions such as how costs are shared, and how scarce resources should be allocated, particularly for high-cost interventions with minor benefits, involve basic moral considerations.

    One possibility is to establish a Health Reform Commission composed of independent and professional people to inform and lead public discussion and advise on important health reform issues. Clinicians should be included, but not the AMA or any of the vested interests. The Law Reform Commission established by the Whitlam Government in 1975 is an example of how enquiries and consultations can be conducted with the community in order to make recommendations to government that are well-informed. The Law Reform Commission estimates that over 85% of its reports have been either substantially or partially implemented making it an effective and influential agent for reform. The Reserve Bank is another example of how a respected, professional and independent body can be a leader in public discussion of important issues. A major objective of a Health Reform Commission would be to outflank the vested interests and carry an informed discussion with the community, particularly of the key principles that should drive health care. Ahead of establishing such a commission in government it would be useful to establish an interim group of professional and independent people who can facilitate informed public discussion and provide advice.

    There are various ways to deal with public participation but the basic approach and method is that communities should be consulted to find what they want, and in successive rounds experts should analyse and report back on the costs and consequences of their proposals. For example, explaining that a completely free system would involve higher taxes and may involve greater waiting times.

    One other model is the “citizen jury” – so named because the citizens to be consulted are selected on a random basis, and are informed by professional and independent experts. They could be asked to provide their advice back to government on such key issues as: to what extent do we want to share the costs of healthcare; how co-payments should be reformed; how to overcome the commonwealth state blame game; how the workforce should be reformed.  End of life issues could also be canvassed as well as many expensive interventions that have limited effectiveness. These citizens’ juries in health could be important vehicles for a national conversation on health, a conversation that we do not have at present.

    I see parts 1,2and 3 on Health Policy Reform as outlined as, hopefully, a means to put the debate on health reform onto a more constructive and pragmatic path. Unless we get our processes working more effectively and particularly how to bypass vested interests, reform will continue to be very difficult. When we improve our processes we can be more confident of addressing the particular policy issues outlined in these three papers.

    Unless we address the issue of power and how and who exercises that power in the health sector we will not achieve worthwhile reform. Power is in the hands of providers. It is not in the hands of the public or governments. That is the key issue. We need leadership, institutions and processes to focus on how we overcome this central issue.

  • John Menadue. Health Policy Reform: Part 2 – Why reform is difficult. Health ministers are in office but not in power.

    In Part 1 on health policy reform I outlined the main areas where health reform is necessary. In Part 2 I examine the reasons why I think health reform is so hard. In part 3 I will consider ways in which the necessary path of health reform can be quickened.

    There is a major barrier to health reform. It is the power of providers or at least their assumed power. When I was asked by the National Hospital and Health Reform Commission to describe in a sentence or even one word the obstacles to health reform I said ‘power’, the power of providers. I don’t the Commission got what I was driving at!

    A succession of Australian health ministers may have been in office but they have not been in power. Aneurin Bevan who launched in the 1940’s in my view the best health service in the world knew a few things about health but more importantly he knew much more about political power and how to exercise it in the public interest. He drew on the strong support of the community, a minority of doctors and the majority of nurses. He won the day and not surprisingly the UK National Health Service was the centre piece at the London Olympic opening ceremony in 2012.

    The previous Australian health minister said we needed a conversation on health. The new minister says she will consult widely after the fiasco on co-payments. But if past practise repeats itself the conversation and consultation will be limited to the AMA and the Pharmacy Guild.

    The difficulties of sensible reform are obvious in the health field but they are a generic problem in public policy today. It has been most obvious in climate change policy where Ross Gaunaut has described the power of vested interests as a ‘diabolical problem’.

    The power of insiders – or the faintheartedness of politicians

    Reform disrupts established arrangements. In general, the longer those arrangements have persisted, the greater becomes the pent-up need for reform, meaning that reform is going to be disruptive to existing interests. By the same token, as arrangements become more entrenched, the more do those who benefit from them feel threatened, and the more political clout they develop to resist reform.

    That resistance is often based on financial self-interest, but it also aligns with a general fear of change and professional conservatism. It is difficult for those who are “inside” a system – be they administrators, professionals or policymakers – to conceive of other ways of delivering services.  Institutional inertia is a strong force. And in health care it is easy to lose sight of the fact that delivering services is not, in itself, the objective. That objective surely is serving the community by helping to keep the population healthy.

    One group with a stake in current arrangements are those who administer health services. Health is a highly technical, large and complex field that is difficult for outsiders to come to grips with. This gives disproportionate power to health administrators on the inside.

    “Joined at the hip” with these administrators are much the same vested interests (rent seekers) that batten on the health service and dominate the public debate. These are much the same vested interests who so selfishly and ferociously led the opposition to Medibank in 1975. They are still with us today but in a different guise. The AMA has a long and dubious history in opposing key health reforms going back to its opposition to the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme In 1942.

    These vested interests include the Australian Medical Association (AMA), the Australian Pharmacy Guild, the private health insurance funds, Medicines Australia and the state and territory health department bureaucracies. In addition, there is a general “pro-business” push to open up all aspects of health care more to the private sector, particularly pathology and radiology.

    The AMA in its role as a medico- political organisation opposes reform of the fee for service (FFS) system of remuneration. FFS is an administratively convenient means of remuneration, but it carries perverse incentives because it rewards over-servicing, over-referring and over-prescribing. It is particularly inappropriate for care of the chronically ill.

    Even among the most dedicated professionals, financial incentives influence behaviour, and tend to reinforce professionals’ desire to apply their skills to problems – rather than encouraging people to become less dependent on health services.

    Where possible, financial incentives should encourage practitioners to keep people healthy, rather than to deliver services to the sick. There is no “one-size-fits-all” method of remuneration – FFS has its place, but it should stand alongside other systems, such as capitation and salaried payments.

    The perverse incentives in FFS come to play particularly strongly when health care takes on a corporate structure, where business objectives such as return on shareholders’ funds displace professional service objectives traditionally associated with medical practices. Businesses operate on the basis of expanding their markets, not on the basis of telling customers they may be over-using their services. The AMA, however, is turning a blind eye to the growing corporate takeover of general practise and the associated vertical integration into radiology and pathology.

    Excuse me for dropping names but in a round table I attended with Margaret Thatcher in the late 1980s she was asked, “Now that you have fixed the restrictive work practices of the miners and the printers, what are you going to do about the restrictive work practices of the doctors? She replied that she would leave it to her last term. She never got around to it.” And so far neither have we.

    The Pharmacy Guild strongly defends the privileged position pharmacists have gained through political influence. On the one hand the Guild strongly defends the many restrictions on competition enjoyed by pharmacists – prohibition on pharmacies in supermarkets, prohibition on price advertising, restrictions on location of pharmacies and exclusive rights to sell many non-prescription medications. On the other hand it does nothing to encourage integration of pharmacy with general practice. Thus there persists the anachronistic practice of a separation of pharmaceutical from medical services.

    It is not only in retail pharmacy that Australians are overpaying. Governments are also generous with taxpayers’ money for the mainly foreign pharmaceutical firms who are able to exploit their power in patents. Medicines Australia, the body representing manufacturers and distributors of drugs, has successfully lobbied the Commonwealth to pay high prices for prescription pharmaceuticals. Twenty years ago Australia stood out as a world leader in using government purchasing power to keep pharmaceutical prices under control. Now Australia pays top prices: for example, Australians pay $2 billion per annum more than New Zealanders pay for equivalent drugs.

    The private health insurance companies are expensive financial intermediaries, receiving a $7b annual taxpayer subsidy through the rebate, and additional support in the form of the Medicare Levy Surcharge, which subsidises those with high incomes to hold PHI. Not even at the height of manufacturing industry protection were people actually given cash subsidies to buy Holdens and Falcons.

    Private insurers don’t deliver any health services; they are simply high-cost financial intermediaries taking commissions. As I outlined in Part 1, PHI benefits the wealthy and most importantly weakens the power of Medicare to control prices. Gap insurance through PHI has underwritten an enormous increase in specialist fees. Now the private insurers are edging their way into general practice. The Managing Director of Medibank Private also reportedly told doctors that private health insurance policy holders should have priority in public emergency departments. What an outrageous proposal.

    Government subsidized private insurance is a major threat to health care in Australia. At first sight it may appear to relieve public budgets and to take pressure off public hospitals, but that’s not the way it plays out. It actually sucks resources out of the public hospitals. The remeration of most specialists in private hospitals are multiples of the remuneration of specialists in public hospitals. And as PHI pushes up costs, governments, still left with funding a large part of health services, find that they become passive players, accepting prices set by private service providers and insurers. As a result, In the United States the government’s partial programs – Medicare and Medicaid – now cost more as a proportion of GDP than do completely publicly-funded insurance systems in the United Kingdom and many other European countries. The cause of this problem in the US is PHI.

    Yet, in spite of this economic danger, and the example of the clearly dysfunctional American system, governments in this country – Coalition and Labor – have been reluctant to take on the PHI industry. Before the 2007 election Kevin Rudd wrote to the industry assuring it that their taxpayer subsidies would continue.

    In an economy where many traditional industries, from manufacturing through to print media, are facing huge competitive pressure and disruption, health care is seen as one last remaining growth sector, offering easy picking for business – if only the government would get out of the way.

    Those are the private interests. We also have eight state and territory health department bureaucracies supported by their ministers. In a nation where state governments feel that more and more financial and political power is accruing to the Commonwealth, it is natural that they defend their shrinking turf. Such considerations override any concern to see an integrated national system. In response, the Commonwealth is reluctant to stare down the parochialism of the states.

    Reform is possible

    Australian governments have a strong record on economic reform. In the 1980s the Hawke-Keating Government took on vested interests, and negotiated a wide-ranging set of reforms in the manufacturing, transport and financial services industries. Earlier, in the mid-1970s, the Whitlam Government, when it introduced Medibank, successfully stared down the AMA and the health insurers. Although the Fraser Government unwound many of these reforms, the Hawke Government successfully resurrected universal public insurance in the form of Medicare.

    But there has been no significant reform of the health sector since then. In 1977 the Productivity Commission recommended a comprehensive inquiry into health financing, but no government has initiated such an inquiry. Corporate interests have become more involved in health care, and PHI has become established once again.

    Governments generally over-estimate the power of lobby groups. They can make a lot of noise – particularly when, as a result of successful rent-seeking in the past, they have accumulated large funds to spend on scare campaigns at the public’s expense, but the capacity to make noise does not equate to a capacity to influence voters. Opinion polls consistently show that the public believe Coalition governments are too much influenced by big business, which means reforming governments should be able to gain electoral advantage from standing up to rent-seekers.

    The problem is not just about financial self-interest, however. It is also about the inertia of established practices, and an incapacity of those on the “inside” to imagine any significant variation on current arrangements. Practices such as the separation of pharmacies from medical services, fee-for-service funding, the dependence of private hospitals on private insurance, the separation of medical from hospital services in private hospitals, and so on, have become entrenched in the thinking of policymakers, politicians and many journalists. There is a deficit of imagination, an incapacity to think beyond the present.

    A large part of the problem lies in the Commonwealth bureaucracy. Commonwealth Ministers for Health are very dependent on the Department of Health and Ageing, particularly, as is often the case, when ministers are not across the issues and don’t have a clear policy program themselves. Aneurin Bevan showed how important political leadership is.

    The Department is ill-equipped to cope with policy reform. Rather, its objective seems to be to keep the peace with provider lobbies, and to keep the minister out of any public brawl or argument.

    The Department is structured in ways that reflects the interests of providers such as doctors and pharmacists, rather than on the basis of community interests, such as acute care, chronic care or demography. It has expertise in administering existing programs but it has little economic expertise. Fiscal concerns tend to crowd out any consideration of economics.  One very senior Commonwealth official said to me that the Department does not have any strategic sense in health policy.

    In fact the Department doesn’t even effectively integrate the Commonwealth’s own major programs, let alone make any real progress in bridging the Commonwealth and state divide. During the difficult negotiations with the states on health reform during the Rudd Government period, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet effectively had to step in because DHA was not up to the job. Even the task or rolling out e-health, a minor but important reform, proved to be a difficult one for the Department. DHA sees Medicare as a funding vehicle and not a policy instrument. Medicare is, in fact, is not even within DHA. Health policy is an after-thought and health reform is right off the agenda.

    The Ministerial/Departmental model in health has failed. It is incapable of contesting the power of the rent seekers. The community is effectively excluded.

    Unless the health debate is taken to “outsiders”, away from the insiders – the rent seekers and vested interests– we are unlikely to see significant progress in health reform. The vested interests invariably win out over the public interest, time and time again.

    Political struggles between the public and rent-seekers are not uncommon, but there are reasons why in health care the public interest has a hard time securing a voice. Most of the public most of the time have little contact with health services. The intense users tend to be the chronically ill (who are reasonably active but do not constitute a majority) and those who are nearing the end of their lives and are not in a position to exert political influence. It is unlike services we all experience such as education or transport, where strong public lobby groups naturally arise. Also, health lobby groups are able to exploit the public’s trust in health care provider’s services – a trust which is well-justified on the grounds of professional competence, but which should not logically extend to trust on financial or political matters.

    The media stories tend to be about failures – often in public hospitals because they handle the most difficult cases – and about corporate activities. Press releases from pharmaceutical firms, health insurers and other rent-seekers provide easy material for under-resourced journalists. It is easy for governments and so-called “business interests” to raise scare campaigns about the affordability of government health services. They don’t mention that when those services are privatized they are generally more expensive), but it is very hard to engender a debate about health policy. The superficial slanging match about the Commonwealth’s GP co-payments is illustrative of the paucity of the public “debate”.

     

    In Part 3 I will address governance and issues of process which are necessary to break through the inertia and counter the power of the vested interests that batten on the health system.

     

  • John Menadue. Health Policy Reform: Part 1 – Why reform is needed.

    I will be posting three articles on health policy.

    This article outlines the priority areas where reform is necessary.

    Part 2 will explain why reform is so difficult but not impossible. The key issue is power and how it is exercised

    Part 3 will be about processes and governance issues that are necessary to move us beyond the present inertia, incrementalism and tinkering, with suggestions for policy directions. I will not be proposing specific policies. 

    The Rudd-Gillard Government – lost opportunities

    Traditionally, in Australia and elsewhere, Labor and similar governments have been the initiators of health reform. Conservative governments, in general, have opposed or wound back health reform.

    In Australia the Labor Party, guided by principles of universalism, equity and economic efficiency, gave us publicly-funded health insurance – initially through Medibank and then through Medicare.

    In spite of high expectations in health reform, however, in its 2007-2013 period in government Labor really did little more than muddle through. Kevin Rudd promised to take over state hospitals if the states continued to stonewall, and polling suggested that the public agreed with his approach. But in the end he gave way: fragmentation of services between the Commonwealth and the states continued, as did the practices of cost and responsibility shifting between those two tiers of government. He focussed on hospitals and not on primary care.

    The Rudd Government established a National Hospital and Health Reform Commission (NHHRC), but it was composed largely of health insiders who seemed to be incapable of seeing health policy from a broad perspective, and who failed to grasp the basic economics of health care. The process achieved very little and chewed up a great deal of time and money. It was a wasted opportunity.

    To its credit the Rudd and Gillard Governments had one major policy achievement – plain-packaging of cigarettes, and before it lost office was making progress on other aspects of public health. The success of these public health reforms, in contrast with the minor achievements of health care programs, is consistent with the possibility that reform of these programs is impeded by institutional inertia and the power of rent-seekers, a point taken up in Part 2. The tobacco industry is well-heeled, but it does not have friends in health departments.

    Case mix funding to improve hospital efficiency was also a useful reform

    Indigenous, mental and rural health all remain in a parlous state. Health programs operate in isolation from one another. The funding of health care through multiple public, corporate and private channels results in serious inequities. And, in general, there are administrative inefficiencies and a poor allocation of scarce resources.

    Since 2013 the situation has worsened. The Abbott Government has abolished the Australian National Preventive Health Agency and Medicare Locals, has foreshadowed deep cuts in funding for state hospitals, and has put up ill-considered proposals for GP co-payments.

    Getting the most from what we have

    In considering health reform, we need to start with an appreciation that we have one of the best health services in the world in both efficiency and equity, thanks to Medicare. But Medicare was established over 40 years ago. It is now a bits and pieces operation – some parts added in good times and with cut-backs in difficult times. Some additions have been made by Labor governments and some by anti-Labor governments. There is little coherence or consistency in what we have at the moment. Our health care arrangements could not be called a ‘system’. They have no clear and underlying principles or philosophy.

    As a result of that lack of coherence and fragmentation there is waste in our health care arrangements. Nurses, doctors, paramedics and others are all working hard and professionally, but there are managerial inefficiencies and high bureaucratic costs in both the private and public sectors: I have estimated that reforms would result in a saving of at least ten per cent of our health bill or about $15b in today’s costs. Abolition of the taxpayer subsidy of over $7b per annum to private health insurance would represent about half of these savings.

    But a big waste is in misallocation of scarce resources. Capacity to pay often overrides consideration of therapeutic needs. Governments seek savings in public health and primary care – savings which are more than offset by higher needs for hospitalization and high cost specialist care. Demarcation rigidities result in overwork for some and under-utilisation of skills for others such as nurses. In all, the whole is far less than the sum of its parts.

    Seldom do we stand back and ask the central issue: what do we need and expect from a health system? That question should be a starting point for reform.

    The concerns of health policy – a system approach

    Incremental reforms addressing real or perceived shortcomings in particular programs, even if they achieve some economies, are going to do no more than to perpetuate existing problems. Reform needs to cut across programs, and concerned with the following six issues.

     

    1. Primary care. Primary care has been largely ignored in health reform. It should be the starting point for any consideration however of preventive health and chronic care. Early interventions and health check-ups can head off costly and debilitating illnesses.

    Specialist care has become very expensive. We have an obsession with hospitals. But hospitals should be the last resort rather than the first. Countries such as the United Kingdom and New Zealand have high quality care in part because of the philosophy underlying their systems, but also because those systems are grounded in primary care, which is the most efficient and equitable way to deliver health services for all regardless of income. It is where care is best integrated.

    Fee for service (FFS) remuneration in primary care has encouraged “turnstile medicine”, excessive treatment and increasingly the corporatisation of general practice.  FFS is a major barrier to reform in primary care. FFS may be appropriate for episodic or occasional care for walk-in patients but it is not appropriate for chronic and long term care, particularly mental and indigenous health care. Our governments have failed in this key area.

    A major barrier of course to improved health services through primary care is that the Commonwealth funds GPs and other medical services, other than those in public hospitals, while the states operate public hospitals. There are substantial savings in keeping patients out of hospitals but with different funding steams there are few incentives to do so. In fact, when the Commonwealth is more concerned with its fiscal balance than with sound economics, it has every temptation to skimp on primary care, essentially imposing higher costs on the states and poorer health outcomes on the community. The Commonwealth’s fiscal obsession has outweighed any sense of economic responsibility

    2. Workforce. Health is the largest and fastest growing sector of the Australian economy. Its structure and workforce are riddled with 19th Century demarcations and restrictive work practices. For example there are several hundred nurse practitioners in Australia when there should be thousands, performing routine functions such as administering regular vaccinations. About 10 per cent of normal births in Australia are delivered by midwives: in New Zealand that figure is over 90 per cent.

    We don’t have a shortage of doctors so much as a misallocation of doctors. Nurses, allied health workers and ambulance staff are denied opportunities to upgrade and realise their professional potential and improve services.

    Pharmacies should be providing more basic health services for the community and should be active partners with doctors in the front line. Pharmacists are the most underutilised and highly-qualified professionals in our health sector. They need to be integrated into primary health care.

    There will never be adequate delivery of service to people, particularly the aged, without radical workforce reform, mainly within primary care. As Minister for Health, Nicola Roxon enabled some nurse practitioners and midwives to access the Medical Benefit Scheme but the access was quite minor. The MBS can be the lever for major workforce renewal.

    It is quite remarkable that we have endless talk about the need for workforce reform everywhere but in the health sector. Surely governments could not be frightened of the AMA! In our modern economy the restrictive work practices and demarcations in the health sector are a disgrace.

     

    3. Program structures. Health services are structured and funded around providers – medical services by doctors, pharmaceuticals through big Pharma and the Pharmacy Guild, and hospitals through state governments and private agencies. The structure of the Department of Health and Ageing reflects this provider focus rather than a focus on consumers.

    Such a provider-based structure, rather than a user- or customer-based structure, is reminiscent of corporate structures abandoned in the private sector a half-century ago, and is inconsistent with the “outcomes” focus of public sector reforms of the 1980s. Yet it survives in the health sector with the only institutional recognition of consumers is through the Health Consumers Forum of Australia, a body funded by the Commonwealth and which seems more like a marketing arm of the Department of Health and Ageing than a group representative of consumer interests.

    We need to progressively change the focus of health programs to serve the community rather than providers. One possible structure would be around types of users – acute, chronic and occasional. It would help reduce the competition between different provider areas for limited resources. The Department of Health and Ageing shows no serious interest in consumers but together with the Minister always seems to have an open door for the rent seekers such as the Pharmacy Guild.

     

    4. Funding. Funding of health services is a mess, resulting in serious inequities, high administrative costs, and misallocation of scarce resources. Some services, financed either through private health insurance or Medicare, are free at the point of delivery, while others can leave consumers with massive out-of-pocket expenses.

    We have some of the highest co-payments in the developed world but they lack rhyme or reason. They are a “dog’s breakfast” with the level of government subsidies varying enormously. Some co-payment arrangements work on a safety-net basis, while others, such as for psychologists, leave the consumer bearing open-ended risks. The Abbott Government’s “reforms”, if implemented, would make the situation worse. Medical and pharmaceutical co-payments have little in common, and dental services are much more poorly funded than medical services. The safety nets are unfair and lead to abuse.

    Persons on high incomes should pay more for health services through efficient and defensible co-payments. A “universal” service does not necessarily mean it should be free. Subject to a means test, there needs to be more discipline by consumers in their use of health services. Jennifer Doggett at the Centre for Policy Development has proposed workable means-tested reforms in this area with a Health Credit Card. See http://cpd.org.au/2009/07/out-of-pocket-rethinking-health-copayments/ There is no sign the Commonwealth is concerned about the problem however, even though most other countries have better models to emulate. The Nordic countries, for example, insist on a single public funder and universality but with efficient and equitable co-payments.

    The other great funding distortion in Australian health care arrangements is private health insurance (PHI) – essentially a high-cost mechanism which allows some, particularly those with high incomes, to jump the queue for health services, thus worsening waiting times in public hospitals and diverting resources to private hospitals, contrary to the claim that it takes pressure off public hospitals.  It penalises country people because there are few private hospitals in the bush. Australia’s arrangements also mean that private and public hospitals operate on different funding streams and with little integration of services.

    The government, through means testing rebates for PHI, has removed some inequities, but PHI remains a costly and inequitable way to do what the tax system and Medicare do much better. Also, PHI is administratively inefficient with bureaucratic costs about three times higher than Medicare.

    Private gap insurance promoted by PHI has facilitated enormous increases in specialist fees. Most importantly, the expansion of PHI progressively weakens the ability of Medicare to control costs. The evidence world-wide is clear that countries with significant PHI have high costs without any better health outcomes.

    The stand-out example of PHI causing high costs and poor outcomes is the United States.  President Obama may have substantially achieved universal coverage, but PHI with its lack of cost control will ultimately cripple and finally destroy his reforms. Warren Buffett has described PHI companies as the “tape worm” in the US health sector.

    The Commonwealth already has a sound model of a single payer operated through the Department of Veterans Affairs – a model which retains the strong control of a single payer accountable to the community whilst allowing private practise involvement in service delivery.

    The Commonwealth has failed to understand the damage that PHI is already doing in Australia. PHI is a Damocles sword hanging over Medicare. We must assert the key importance of a single public funder.

    It is interesting to note that the $7b plus per annum taxpayer subsidy to PHI is more than would be required to fund a Medicare dental scheme!

     

    5. Defining Medicare. This great Labor monument needs a review. Medicare has become a passive but efficient funding mechanism, providing a partial subsidy for certain health expenses, rather than the public insurer it was intended to be. After all, it is still called the “health insurance commission”, but it is nothing of the sort, and it is not even within the health portfolio.

    Medicare has a remarkable database which should be used to highlight and inform policy concerning over and underutilisation of services across the country. Why for example do rates of caesarean section vary enormously across the country and why are Australian rates very high in world rankings? There are many other large variations in clinical procedures that must be made public and explained.  Medical services should be subject to the same rigorous cost-benefit examination as pharmaceutical services. Medicare is not doing it.

    Even more potential lies in the use of that database for research into efficacy of treatments. This was an intention of Medicare’s designers, who envisioned the day when computing power could extract clinical information from that database. That day has arrived, but the government, although willing to invest billions in some areas of medical research, shows no interest in using this valuable resource, or in the integration of MBS and PBS data which would provide rigorous pharmaceutical evaluation at a tiny fraction of the cost of clinical trials.

     

    6. Cost and blame shifting. Governments, more concerned with their fiscal balances than with economic efficiency, try to shift costs on to other governments, Commonwealth to state and vice versa, on to individuals, or on to future generations for example in neglect of public health. Attempts to resolve the Commonwealth/state blame and cost shifting have been largely unsuccessful and certainly expensive with the Commonwealth succumbing to state political pressure without fixing the lack of integration.

     

    In Part 2 I will be looking at the major obstacles to health reform, including the influence of the vested interests who are concerned to protect their own territory rather than serve the public interest.

  • John Menadue. Health Workforce Reform.

    Conservative commentators and the Business Council of Australia speak endlessly about the need for industrial and workforce reform particularly in the blue-collar area where there has already been very substantial reform and improvement. Changes in the Australian workforce have helped transform the Australian economy in the last 30 years. It was begun under the Hawke/Keating governments and continued under the Howard governments.

    But the health sector has scarcely been touched. I ‘guesstimate’ that there is a potential productivity dividend of at least 40% in health workforce reform over the next decade. That 40% may be on the low side. The Productivity Commission estimated a few years ago that a 10% efficiency improvement in health would deliver an $8 b dividend at that time.

    Reform of the health workforce structure, work practices, multi skilling, teamwork, and flexible training, are the key micro-reform issues that we face.  The most obvious example of restrictive practices in health is in obstetrics and midwifery.  In Australia, less than 10% of normal births are managed by midwives.  In the Netherlands it is over 70% and in the UK over 50% In NZ it is 90%.  The reason why Australia is so far behind the field is opposition by obstetricians who want to protect their market share and high incomes. They are highly favoured through the Medical Benefits Scheme.

    Health is Australia’s largest industry, and employs about 7% of the civilian workforce.  About 70% of every health dollar of expenditure is in labour costs. Such a large area of expenditure cannot be excluded from workforce reform. It is more important than any other workforce issue. Health workforce reform will not be easy but it is essential. Above all else it requires political courage to face down the special and entrenched interests that dominate the health sector.

    Several years ago, an emeritus professor at University of Sydney, Professor Kerry Goulston described the problems he saw as follows.

    Our medical workforce management in hospitals is rigid and antiquated. Job sharing is rare. … Most hospitals are staffed on the front line at nights and weekends by junior medical staff, often without onsite supervision…. The traditional roles of doctor, nurse and allied health personnel have to be redesigned around the patients’ needs.  Many procedures carried out by doctors could be done by non-doctors. Many medical duties could be done by other health professionals. In places where it has proven impossible to recruit doctors, nursing staff have been upskilled to provide a higher level of clinical care. It is clearly possible to extend this model for use in public hospitals where better supervision is available, but would require a reduction in the strict demarcation of clinical roles. … The morale of our hospital workforce is low. Disengagement and loss of commitment is a real issue.

    We clearly need to dramatically reshape our health workforce. The Productivity Commission made the first serious attempt to address the problem. But progress has been very slow.

    My own view is that the financial lever of the Medical Benefits Scheme is the best way to promote reform. Nicola Roxon made a few changes in this regard but it was quite minor.

    We need concerted and strong political and administrative action to break down  the old historic workforce boundaries and boxes and  establish new ways of working – teams working across professional and organisational boundaries; flexible working to make the best use of the range of skills and knowledge of staff; streamlined workforce planning and development which stems from the needs of patients not of professionals; maximising the contribution of all staff to patient care, doing away with barriers which say only doctors or nurses can provide particular types of care; modernising education and training to ensure that staff are equipped with the skills they need to work in a complex, changing health system; developing new, more flexible careers for staff in all professions; expanding the workforce to meet future demands and more flexible deployment of staff to maximise the use of their skills and abilities.  .

    We need for example to consider nurses undertaking greater responsibility for prescribing, diagnosis and triage in hospitals; nurse anaesthetists complementing and substituting for medically qualified anaesthetists; enrolled nurses taking on some of the tasks currently done by registered nurses; midwives substituting for obstetricians; new allied health assistants supporting allied health workers to increase their capacity to treat more patients; practice nurses undertaking some of the work currently performed by GPs, including some prescribing, screening and triage.

    Professor Peter Brooks  has drawn attention to the 60,000 physician assistants in the United States who grew out of the ‘medics’ in Vietnam. They are trained for about two years in 100 professional programs across the United States, concentrating on science and clinical aspects.

    Clearly nurses, allied health, ambulance officers and community health workers could undertake more skilled work except for the barriers erected by other professionals.  Pharmacists need to employ their professional skills in primary care with less of their time spent as shop keepers.

    The great problem is that our health and community services workforce is trained and works in boxes – ‘there are boxes everywhere’. We need dramatic change, up-skilling, multi-skilling, broad banding and teamwork.

    Failure to tackle these major workforce problem results in clear loss of morale and high staff turnover across the health and community sector. We see the problems like the tip of the iceberg, only when they are revealed before a court or medical board. The powerful sectional interests still call the shots and resist change. If they had blue collars, rather than white coats, the story would be different.

    What is lacking is courage and determination to address the problem. Excuse me dropping names but in the late 1980s, I attended a round table discussion with UK Prime Minister, Maggie Thatcher in Sydney.  She was asked ‘now that you have reformed the work practices of the printers and coal miners in the UK, what do you propose to do about the restrictive practices of doctors and lawyers?’  She replied, ‘It is a very serious problem, but if you don’t mind I will leave it until my last term’.  The coal miners and printers were fair game, but not the doctors and lawyers who were put in the ‘too hard’ basket.

    The health and community workforce structure is at the end of its design life. The whole health system is built around provider demarcations. It must be efficiently built around patients’ needs.

     

     

  • Nanny Endovelicus. Preventing prevention Part 2

    This is part 2 of a series on health prevention. It was initially posted in October last year.  John Menadue.

    Yesterday, in part 1, I began the task of analysing the cuts to the Commonwealth’s health budget and to the promised payments to the States and Territories in the area of prevention. Are the cuts well justified by the statistics?

    Obesity – Nutrition and Physical Inactivity

    Other than tobacco and excess alcohol consumption, the rising rates of obesity are the most concerning statistics in the area of preventable diseases. People’s diets and their levels of physical activity both contribute to obesity and overweight. By mid 2012, almost two thirds of Australians over 18 years were either overweight or obese according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, a significant increase from a decade ago. The current combined level for obesity and overweight is 63% for adults (70% of men and 56% of women). Of children between the ages of 5 – 17, about 18% are overweight and 8% are obese; this is very bad news, but at least it isn’t worse news – these numbers for children are largely unchanged since 2007-08. Unsurprisingly, a clear pattern of socio-economic disadvantage is visible: the prevalence of obese children, for example, is four times higher in disadvantaged areas.

    Australia is now in the top league tables in the obesity stakes, still lower than the United States but we’ve been catching up fast.

    On specific metrics for exercise and nutrition, the AIHW (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare is also being abolished as a standalone statutory body by decision of the 2014 Budget with the functions to be amalgamated in a mega ‘productivity and performance’ entity) reported this year that: 92% of Australians did not eat 5 serves of vegetables per day and 52% did not eat 2 serves of fruit; and only 43% of adults were active enough to meet recommended guidelines of 150 minutes per week of walking or other moderate or vigorous activity.[1]  

    The nation has a long way to go on the obesity problem. Dutton often cites the alarming obesity statistics – but mainly as a precursor to argue for his plans to charge people more for primary care from their GP – which is of course where a lot of prevention advice is given and where lower-income people are most likely to go. Given the current minister is well aware of the problem, presumably there are major initiatives to tackle obesity. However, there is no evidence in the federal budget of anything much being done. Perhaps the government is making good on its comment that this is a matter for people’s personal responsibility.

    Other Risk Factors

    There are of course other risk factors both behavioural and biomedical – eg. high blood pressure, high cholesterol, high salt intakes – but it is in particular the key risk factors described above which drive the major increases in chronic disease.   So while not unimportant, the Commonwealth, States and Territories chose to focus their efforts and funds on the SNAP behavioural risks that could potentially be influenced in a better direction.

    Where to now?

    So, with the data under our belts, does the picture suggest less attention or a reduction in funding for prevention activity?  The answer is self-evident.  More emphasis on prevention is clearly in order.  And that is what most countries are doing – increasing considerably their attention to the difficult area of lifestyle risk factors in order to counter the significantly increasing burden of preventable chronic diseases. The head of the World Health Organization, Margaret Chan, has noted that chronic noncommunicable diseases have overtaken infectious diseases as the leading global cause of morbidity, disability, and mortality and stated that “prevention must be the cornerstone of the global response.” So what’s going on in Australia? Why this attack on lifestyle-related prevention activity.

    There are perhaps two interrelated answers.

    That the Abbott Government is proving to be highly ideological – not a feature of their campaigning before the election – is hardly a matter for debate any longer.  The extent of the ideological thrust is however a surprise to many as is the extent of the influence of the far right think tanks like the Institute of Public Affairs. The IPA had waged a highly visible campaign against nanny state prevention activities in the election lead up. During the Budget, the ideological tenor of the government was especially on display when increasing spending. More money for medical research! Terrific idea? In principle, you’d think so. But the funds are for Medical – big M – research; Dutton made clear that it’s a Medical Research Future Fund – not a Health Research Fund – which is far more likely to rule out research into, for example, factors influencing behavioural elements like fast food or alcohol consumption. Particularly ironic (depressing) – but sending the clear ideological message – the savings from killing off the COAG Preventative Health Partnership and abolishing the national Prevention Health Agency are being directed into the Medical Research Future Fund according to Budget Paper #2.

    Just as worrying, and well documented by others, is the influence of the alcohol and food industries on the government (see for example Big Food with a regional flavour – how Australias food lobby works). The embarrassing Fiona Nash’s behaviour in hiring a junk food lobbyist as her chief of staff was probably just the visible tip of a very large iceberg. Her hamfisted attempt to delay the website and possibly wipe out the food star labelling system – and this is a voluntary system for the industry! – created the first scandal for the then new government. Given the level of control over ministerial staff appointments out of the PM’s office, one could suppose the PM thought there was no problem with having a junk food voice so intimately involved in the food minister’s work — a supposition largely confirmed in his refusal to have his non-performing junior minister resign over the matter. (As an aside, however, his reluctance could well be compounded by that fact that there are rather few women in the ministerial club and losing one – and a Nat at that – might have been rather problematical). At least they don’t let Nash out in public very often – although her launching of the most recent phase of the national tobacco campaign from a party base that still accepts Big Tobacco funding had a number of us seriously exceeding the NHMRC alcohol guidelines for single occasion risk!!

    Where the industry influence and the ideology will take us eventually is probably not to better health outcomes. Cuts to areas like prevention, just like undermining investment in newer green technologies, do not have outcomes that are immediately visible – the negative results take some time to manifest.   Eventually, our performance or rather lack of it, in prevention will become evident in the burden of disease measures and in comparison with other countries who are diligently tackling the tough lifestyle issues. The actions of an ideological government, out-of-touch with international evidence and action on these matters, is not likely to serve Australia’s longer term interests.

    [1] Australia’s health 2014, AIHW

  • Michael Keating. The Financial System Inquiry. Part 3: Investor protection and other matters.

    I am reposting Part 3 of this important series by Michael Keating which was posted during the holiday period.  John Menadue

    Investor protection

    It is now more than 15 years since the present regulatory system was established for the financial system. The basic presumption underpinning that approach to regulation has been that proper disclosure should be relied upon as much as possible. That way it was assumed that investors acting in their own interest would make the best decisions regarding the selection of financial products and services, and through competition thus maximise the efficiency of the system.

    However, the Financial System Inquiry (FSI) has now found that ‘In terms of fair treatment for customers, the current framework is insufficient’, with ‘The most significant problems related to shortcomings in disclosure and financial advice, and over-reliance on financial literacy’.  Furthermore, ‘consumers are taking risks they might not have taken if they were well informed or better advised’. The cost of this ‘poor advice, information imbalances and exploitation of consumer behaviour biases [are estimated by the FSI to] have affected more than 800,000 consumers, with losses totalling more than $5 billion, or $4 billion after compensation and liquidation recoveries’.

    Part of the problem is the complexity of the financial system, which in turn is partly a response to regulation and taxation distortions. But the complexity also reflects the desire to provide consumer choice and flexibility, with a wide variety of financial products and services, which is constantly being augmented by further innovation. In other words there is a trade-off between complexity and choice, and this makes consumer protection more difficult.

    One solution that many customers have adopted in response to this complexity is to rely heavily on financial advisors. Unfortunately some of these advisors have received inducements or are under pressure to not always act in the best interests of their customers, but instead to direct the customer to a preferred product or service. Of course such conduct should be illegal, and the FSI has recommendations to tighten regulation to prevent this sort of behaviour.

    Another problem, however, is the competency of the financial advisers themselves. There is considerable survey evidence that many financial advisers do not have adequate knowledge of the products they are recommending and an appreciation of the risks involved. In particular, the FSI research suggests that some financial planners have limited knowledge of the longevity risk for someone considering retirement and how it can be managed.  Accordingly the FSI has recommended that the competency of financial advisers should be raised, with a relevant tertiary degree being the minimum standard, plus additional competence for those advising in specialised areas such as superannuation. In principle this seems like a good idea, but it may prove difficult to implement, especially quickly because of shortages of suitably qualified advisors, and it will add to costs.

    A second stream of recommendations relate to improving the information to the consumer. An interesting example is the recommendation that member statements from superannuation funds should include a projection of their retirement income, with the Australian Tax Office assisting members to consolidate this information where they have more than one superannuation fund. The FSI cites research showing that giving consumers retirement income projections improves their engagement with saving for retirement, and helps them make more informed decisions about their retirement savings.

    Finally a third stream of recommendations, to assist customers to make better decisions in their own interest, relate to new products tailored to the needs of customers which can then be their default selection. For example, introduction of the comprehensive income product for retirement (CIPR), discussed in my previous comment on superannuation, would involve the trustees of a fund pre-selecting a suitable CIPR option on behalf of the members. This would typically improve retirement incomes, thus better meeting the needs of members in an accumulation superannuation scheme, and while such pre-selected options have been found to influence behaviour positively, they do not limit a member’s personal choice and freedom.

    Other matters

    For reasons of space these three comments on the FSI report have not covered its consideration of innovation and regulation and associated recommendations. In brief, perhaps the most interesting conclusions in this regard are

    • How the financial system can make more and better use of digital technology, and that
    • Australia’s regulatory architecture does not need major change, but because sometimes regulation inevitably involves difficult judgements there should be a regular process that allows the Government to assess the overall performance of financial regulators.

    Conclusion

    One of the strengths of the FSI report is that while it lays out a path for reform of the financial system, it leaves the details to be settled by the appropriate regulator. That seems sensible because of the technical nature of the judgements involved and because it is desirable to settle these details in consultation with those affected.

    Overall there is no reason to disagree with the FSI’s conclusion that the net result of its recommendations would be to:

    • Encourage an efficient financial system that allocates scarce financial resources for the greatest benefit for the economy
    • Promote competition
    • Strengthen the resilience of the financial system, and
    • Lift the value of the superannuation system and retirement incomes

    Furthermore I doubt that there will be much opposition to most of the recommendations and so they should be relatively easy for the Government to adopt. The most difficult areas may be superannuation, if only because of the number of people affected and the importance of their stake in superannuation. The ‘observations’ by the FSI about taxation may well provoke more controversy, but this can only be determined following the Government’s separate review of taxation. Personally I think the Government would be well advised to pursue the changes to the taxation of superannuation first recommended by the Henry Review back in 2009 and now supported by the FSI. Indeed it is difficult to think of an easier option for Budget repair, while dramatically improving fairness and making little or no difference to the rate of household saving.

    So as I suggested at the beginning of these three comments on the FSI Review, I think this report and the other reports that are in the pipeline may well provide the Abbott Government with the opportunity to develop a genuine reform strategy for the Australian economy which it can then take to the next election. In these circumstances the Opposition would also be well advised to consider its position on these issues. Indeed the great shame is that it allowed the Henry Report on taxation to languish while it was in government. It is now not too late to repair that damage to its credibility, but time may well be short.

  • Robert Douglas. Senate report on Australian inequality.

    Bridging our growing divide: Inequality in Australia is an important report tabled without fanfare in the Senate by its Community Affairs References Committee. The report is clearly argued and well-buttressed by data and references. The points it makes about an issue central to the kind of society we are developing in Australia deserve wide community discussion.

    The inquiry terms of reference called for a review of the extent of income inequality, the rate at which it is increasing and its impacts on access to health, housing, education and work.

    The senators were also asked to inquire into specific impacts on disadvantaged groups. These included the likely impact of government policies – especially 2014-15 budget measures – on rates of inequality, the principles that should underpin social security payments and practical measures that government could implement to address inequality.

    The six-month inquiry engaged 13 senators – five from the ALP, five from the Liberal Party, two Greens and one independent. The 273-page report, tabled in December 2014, drew on 64 written submissions and seven public hearings involving 59 witnesses from government and voluntary agencies around the nation.

    The report makes it clear the non-government representatives reached consensus on the key findings. The government members, led by Zed Seselja, were uncomfortable with the conclusions. They tabled a dissenting report.

    I was a co-author of a report by the Australia21/Australia Institute, Advance Australia Fair? What to do about growing inequality in Australia. This was released in mid-2014. I met the committee as a witness and spoke about the origins of the report in a roundtable of experts at Parliament House in January 2014.

    Arising from that rich discussion we proposed ten ways to move to a fairer Australia. These included promoting a national conversation about inequality, its effects and ways of dealing with it.

    The stark inequalities of Australian wealth feature on the cover of the Advance Australia Fair? report. Australia21/Australia Institute
    Click to enlarge

    What did the inquiry find?

    The committee’s majority report states that income inequality has increased in Australia since the mid-1980s. It asserts that the budget measures will be likely to exacerbate income inequality and poverty. The report emphasises that the Newstart payment is too low – for a single adult recipient it is more than A$100 per week below the poverty line.

    The report points to the important role of the minimum wage and the fact that lower incomes are associated with poorer health outcomes. In addition, low transfer payments or low incomes often compound the disadvantage felt by groups such as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, people with disability, people living with mental illness, single parents and new migrants.

    It also argues the need to consider how the income-support system can assist the large and growing group of people with insecure work. The report notes that regional variations in labour markets can seriously limit people’s employment opportunities.

    It goes on to underline the importance of Commonwealth rent assistance and of long waiting lists to enter public and social housing. According to the report, a decent wage is the best way to lift people out of household stress.

    Finally, the report discusses the importance of a one-on-one approach for reconnecting people with education, training and employment opportunities. It argues the need to invest in programs that connect with young people at risk of leaving school early, that develop tailored training for workers aged 50 and above and that provide long-term unemployed people with mentors.

    The report makes 13 recommendations to act on these key findings.

    The Senate report cites research that suggests the public differs from the government on the urgency of acting to reduce inequality. Australian National University, Australia Election Study 1987–2013, CC BY-NC-ND
    Click to enlarge

    What is the government position?

    The government senators’ dissenting report affirms that Australia is a prosperous egalitarian society, which provides security and opportunity for all. It argues that while Australia has some significant issues with poverty and much can be done to improve opportunity and circumstances for all Australians, the majority report adds little to the debate. It says history has shown that a strong economy that provides employment is the best way to build a prosperous society.

    The dissenting senators say arbitrary comparisons between relative income levels pale in significance compared to Australia’s capacity to grow wealth and lift people out of poverty through employment and education. The majority report fails to make the case that inequality is driving poor socioeconomic outcomes, they say, and does not meaningfully engage with budget policies to improve these outcomes.

    The five-page dissenting report has a single recommendation:

    That the Senate implements the government agenda to build a strong and prosperous economy for the benefit of all Australians.

    That this is the government members’ response to inequality in Australia shows why the public needs to join the debate.

    Robert Douglas is Emeritus Professor, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at ANU. This article first appeared in The Conversation on 13 January 2015.

  • Michael Keating. The Financial System Inquiry. Part 2: Superannuation and Retirement Incomes

    I am reposting Part 2 of this important series which you may have missed during the holiday period. John Menadue.

    Australia’s retirement income system is based on three pillars:

    • A means-tested age pension funded from general revenue which alleviates poverty by guaranteeing a base level of income support for retirees
    • Compulsory saving through the superannuation guarantee which was introduced in the early 1990s
    • Additional voluntary superannuation saving.

    This system has received considerable support from overseas authorities, such as the OECD and the World Bank, as providing a model for other countries to follow. Compared to most European and North American countries Australia’s system has a much lower level of unfunded promises and thus limits the risks to future tax payers. Australia’s retirement incomes system is also more flexible and provides better assistance for those on very low incomes and/or who have had broken work histories.

    The Financial System Inquiry (FSI) focused on the superannuation system, which is the newest pillar of the whole retirement incomes system, and is not without its problems. But it is important when reviewing superannuation to consider its role within the provision of retirement incomes more generally and how superannuation reacts with other elements of that retirement income system.

    Since the introduction of compulsory superannuation some 20 odd years ago the total assets of superannuation funds have increased by 2685 per cent from $59.6bn in September 1988 to $1598.8bn in September 2014.  Indeed, for many people superannuation is now their second most important asset after housing. Not surprisingly the finance industry has now become a strong supporter of compulsory superannuation, and advocates a further increase in the rate of this form of saving. The FSI also found that superannuation has been a major source of financial strength and stability as the funds cannot be quickly withdrawn, and the superannuation funds themselves typically have low levels of debt. Indeed, the 2014 Melbourne Mercer Global pension index rates Australia’s superannuation system second out of 25 countries.

    On the other hand, there are a number of criticisms of our present approach to superannuation policy. First the FSI considered that superannuation policy suffers from a lack of clarity around its objective to provide income in retirement to substitute for or supplement the Age Pension. The Inquiry therefore recommended that the superannuation system’s objectives should be enshrined in legislation with public reports on performance and how policy proposals are consistent with achieving these objectives over the long term.

    Second, the FSI is critical of the efficiency of the superannuation industry, and the report convincingly demonstrates how the administrative costs of superannuation funds have remained too high. Thus the FSI found that the size of the average fund increased from $260m in assets in 2004 to $3.3bn in 2013, but average fees only fell by 0.2 per cent over the same period, with two thirds of the estimated benefits from scale and lower margins being offset by increases in fund costs. While the FSI acknowledges that recent reforms to MySuper may result in lower administration costs in future, the evidence produced by the FSI suggests that these reforms may still not fully succeed. Instead the FSI recommends more competition so that if costs have not fallen sufficiently by 2020, new default members of superannuation funds should be allocated to MySuper products by a formal competitive process.

    Third, the FSI found that ‘superannuation assets are not being efficiently converted into retirement incomes due to a lack of risk pooling and an over-reliance on account based pensions’. This means that individuals are exposed to considerable risk from longevity and inflation, so that they are cautious and have a lower standard of living in retirement than is necessary. The FSI accordingly recommends introducing a comprehensive income product for retirement (CIPR). The FSI considers that ‘managing the longevity risk through effective pooling in a CIPR could significantly increase private incomes for many Australians and provide retirees with greater peace of mind that their income will endure through their retirement, while still allowing them some flexibility to meet unexpected expenses’.

    Fourth, as is well known, the tax concessions in the superannuation system are not well targeted and are most inequitable, with more than half the value of the concessions accruing to the top twenty per cent of income earners.  As a result the return on investment in superannuation is about four times as high for people on the top marginal tax rate as for people on a zero tax rate, after taking account of the tax concessions and means testing of the age pension entitlement.  Furthermore, quite a lot of the superannuation savings of high income people may represent a way of sheltering future bequests to their children from taxation, which is inconsistent with the objective of providing an adequate income in retirement.

    The FSI considers that this inequality in the taxation of superannuation has contributed to policy instability, causing most of the many changes to taxation arrangements for superannuation, and that the inequality thus undermines long-term confidence in the system. Differences in the taxation of different forms of income and saving also lead to distortions in resource allocation, and because the superannuation tax concessions are not well targeted to improving retirement incomes they increase the cost of the system to taxpayers. Furthermore, given the present and future Budget outlooks, there must a question about the sustainability of the present system of taxation for superannuation, as there are a number of options for improving the cost-effectiveness and fairness of the system while at the same time generating significant Budget savings.

    Although the FSI does not make specific recommendations for changing the tax arrangements for superannuation, as these are outside its scope, it does canvass two options for improvement:

    1. Reduce the cap on the amount of contributions that attract concessional taxation treatment (currently $540,000 over three years) to reduce the extent that very rich individuals could avoid tax in the future, and implement the recommendation by the 2009 Henry review of Australia’s Future Tax System to tax superannuation contributions at marginal rates less a flat-rate rebate.
    2. Levy additional earnings taxes on superannuation account balances above a certain limit.

    Of these two options the first may be better – it is less complex administratively, and would achieve the equity objective for superannuation, with a consistent concession to all contributions irrespective of a person’s income.  In the absence of other changes to personal tax, the effect of this proposal would be to reduce contributor’s disposable income, but retirement incomes would increase as the fund would no longer pay contributions tax, and so the effect would be similar to requiring employees to make an additional contribution to superannuation. As such phasing in this option may therefore be a better alternative to the proposed phased increase in the contribution rate from the present 9.5 per cent to 12 per cent.  Furthermore, if in addition, the tax on superannuation earnings was halved to 7.5 per cent, as also recommended by the Henry Review, then the retirement income for a median income earner was projected by the Henry Review to result in replacement rates of as much as 88 per cent and a replacement rate of 76 per cent for an average income earner.

    Overall these reforms to superannuation should be strongly supported. They would make a very substantial contribution to a less expensive and fairer retirement incomes system. For the average male wage earner the FSI has calculated that its reforms would have the potential to increase his retirement income by around 25 to 40 per cent (excluding the age pension) – no mean achievement, and at less cost after reform of the tax concessions than the present system.

  • Michael Keating. The Financial System Inquiry. Part 1: Resilience of the Financial System.

    I am reposting this important article in case you missed it during the holiday period.  John Menadue

    With its budget stalled the Abbott Government has often appeared to be floundering and devoid of any long term economic plan or strategy. But this appearance may be deceptive. In fact the Abbott Government has established major inquiries into the financial system, federalism and taxation. Taken together these reports could provide the basis for a comprehensive package of major reforms for the Government to at least announce, even if not complete, before the next election. Ideally that reform package would also include a review leading to a better integration of policy for retirement incomes; where many of the relevant issues have already been touched on by the recently released report on the Financial System and by the Henry Tax review (released five years ago, but except for the ill-fated mining tax, largely ignored since).

    In this comment I will discuss one of these building blocks – the report by the Financial System Inquiry (FSI) chaired by David Murray. The report considers two general themes – removing distortions to the funding of the Australian economy and allowing competition to drive efficiency – and it also has 38 recommendations covering five specific themes:

    • Strengthen the economy by making the financial system more resilient,
    • Lift the value of the superannuation system and retirement incomes,
    • Drive economic growth and productivity through settings that promote innovation,
    • Enhance confidence and trust by creating an environment in which financial firms treat customers fairly,
    • Enhance regulator independence and accountability, and minimise the need for future regulation.

    In addition the FSI Report has another 6 recommendations covering some significant matters that do not fit neatly under the five themes above, and the Report has a number of observations (but not recommendations) about changes to the tax system, which the FSI believes should be considered as part of the process in train for reviewing the tax system.

    Although the FSI Report has not received a lot of media attention it does seem to have been well received. Personally I think there is a good chance that the Government, after a period of consultation, will adopt many of the recommendations, although as I will identify there are a few recommendations that may be opposed by various interest groups.

    In this posting I will comment on the recommendations which are intended to:

    • Make the financial system more resilient, and
    • Increase efficiency through improved competition

    In two subsequent postings I will discuss

    • the proposed changes affecting superannuation, and
    • investor protection and some other related issues

    In the space available it is not possible to cover all the report and all its recommendations, and so I will concentrate on what I consider to be the most important.

    Resilience of the Financial System

    The FSI found that historically Australia has maintained a strong and stable financial system. At its core is the banking system and its safety is of paramount importance. The Australian banking system is, however, very concentrated, unusually dependent on foreign capital inflows, and exposed to fluctuating terms of trade, so that the Australian banks need to be better positioned than most. Accordingly the FSI recommends setting capital ratios for the Australian banks so that they are in top quartile of internationally active banks, and this in a world where the international standards for capital ratios are being raised. There was some expectation that the major banks would oppose this recommendation, arguing that it would reduce bank dividends and/or increase bank margins thus damaging economic growth. But the report shows that such fears have been greatly over-stated[1], and since the release of the report, the major banks seem to have decided that a fight over this recommendation is not worth it, and they seem likely to agree.

    Other key recommendations to improve the resilience of the banking system are:

    1. Increase the risk weighting for mortgages held by the big banks. At present the big banks are able to shrink their mortgage books to just 18 per cent of their real size for the purpose of calculating minimum capital levels, and the FSI has recommended that this risk weighting should be increased to between 25 and 30 per cent, with the exact decision to be made by the regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority. This recommendation will also make the smaller regional banks more competitive because they can only risk weight their mortgages down to 39 per cent of their true value.
    2. Change the tax treatment of investor housing, which the FSI found presently ‘tends to encourage leveraged and speculative investment’, to the point where ‘Housing is a potential source of systemic risk for the financial system and the economy’. Accordingly the specific suggestion by the FSI is that the capital gains tax concessions for assets held longer than a year should be reviewed. In this context the FSI also recommends that superannuation funds should no longer be able to borrow to finance investments in property. This recommendation may prove particularly controversial with the owners of self-managed superannuation funds which have increased their borrowings by almost 18 times over the last five years from $497m in June 2009 to $8.7bn in June 2014. This leveraging up of these superannuation funds has not only made them more risky, but if they fail some of the risk is transferred to the taxpayer, as the owners of the funds then become eligible for the pension.

    In my opinion all the recommendations to improve the resilience of the financial system should be supported. The Global Financial Crisis has reminded us very forcibly of the problems that arise when an institution is considered to be ‘too big to be allowed to fail’.  I agree with the FSI that its package of recommendations to improve the resiliency of the financial system ‘would make institutions less susceptible to shocks and the system less prone to crises. It would reduce the costs of crises when they do happen … and minimise the cost to taxpayers, Government and the broader economy from the [inevitable] risks in the financial system.’

    Efficiency and Competition

    The FSI found that the primary driver of efficiency in the financial system is competition, and overall the Inquiry considered that ‘competition is generally adequate’. The FSI was, however, properly critical of the lack of competition in the superannuation industry (see more in next posting), and personally I was disappointed that the FSI did not pursue competition in the banking industry with the same vigour as it applied to the superannuation industry. From a lay point of view, some of the banking margins (eg. foreign exchange transactions) look excessive, but this was not seriously examined in this review. However, another aspect of some of the recommendations already discussed is that they should improve competition. In particular, the recommendations regarding risk weighting of assets will help make the second tier banks more competitive and overall the FSI is probably correct that its recommendations will help small business in particular gain improved access to funding.

     

    [1] The FSI calculated that increasing the capital ratios by one percentage point would increase average loan interest rates by less than 0.1 percentage point which could reduce GDP by 0.01-0.1 per cent. This seems a reasonable insurance cost against the potential losses from a financial crisis that challenged the solvency of the financial system. For example, on the basis of recent international experience, the FSI suggests that ‘the average financial crisis could see 900,000 additional Australians out of work, … [and] the average total cost of a crisis is around 63 per cent of annual, GDP, and the cost of a severe crisis is around 158 per cent of annual GDP’.

  • John Menadue. Why are the Nordics so successful? Part 2.

    You might be interested in part 2 of these articles on the Nordics.

    In my earlier postcard from Denmark, I described the Nordic success.

    I didn’t mention that they are rated the happiest people in the world, have the lowest rates of corruption and are on track to achieve their target of 50% renewable energy by 2020. Copenhagen is a very liveable city.

    But why have Denmark and other Nordics, Finland, Sweden and Norway been so successful?

    Obviously a small country like Denmark with less than six million people has advantages in terms of social cohesion. A small population makes for stronger personal and community ties, and national unity. But a smaller population does not have the advantages of scale although with higher value added production this is probably less of a problem than in earlier years.

    Amongst their other features, the Vikings were great traders. That tradition continues today with Danes actively pursuing overseas markets. The people are well equipped to do so. In my admittedly brief stay in Copenhagen I did not find any local who was not reasonably fluent in English. It contrasts sharply with our failures in developing Asian languages to equip us in our region.

    In the 1970s and early 1980’s Denmark came to the conclusion that it’s remarkably high taxes and high welfare was not sustainable. Changes needed to be made, but in the process they did not shred everything from the old model. The country continues to have high taxes and provides very generous welfare. This reflects the close linking of national identity and social responsibility which is central to Denmark’s welfare model.

    On discovering that the old social democratic consensus was no longer working, Denmark let some of it go with remarkably little fuss and introduced new ideas from across the political spectrum. They were determined to push through reforms. There was a hard-headedness and pragmatism about it.

    This pragmatism explains why the new consensus so quickly replaced the old one. Few social democratic politicians now want to dismantle the conservative reforms put in place in recent years. Denmark has seen an amalgam of left and right wing policies that are broadly agreed across the community. Winners don’t take all in Denmark. Compromise is essential. A left wing coalition led by Social Democrats and Social Liberals was returned to power in 2011.

    An underlying factor in the successful changes in recent years has been strong trust in government. The Danes do not see the state as a dead hand. They see government as enabling opportunity, promoting individual autonomy and social mobility. They trust their government and politicians to a remarkable degree. What a contrast it is to Australia.

    This Danish trust in institutions is quite remarkable. A survey by the European Commission in November 2012 found that 53% of Danes had public trust in institutions. In Europe it was only 32%. By comparison in Australia, Essential Media reports that our ‘trust in institutions’ ranges from above 50% for the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank but down to 20% or lower for trade unions, business groups and political parties. We have a long way to go to catch up to the Danes and other Nordics in trust in public institutions. We badly need to renew our public institutions that have been badly damaged. Just think of the deliberately created chaos in our last Parliament.

    Trust in government has been a feature in Denmark for centuries. That results in high quality people joining the public service. Citizens and companies pay their high taxes without a great deal of complaint, and play by the rules. Government decisions are widely accepted and few go to the courts to settle disputes.

    This trust in institutions is reflected in the fact that Danes expect their public leaders to keep their word. In his History of Denmark, Professor Knud J.V.Jespersen puts it this way.

    The fundamental attitude of modern Danes is that the state is a friend and ally, not adversary, a protector and not an enemy. This is very much an unconscious result of the fact that for generations, the Danes have been accustomed to a state of law fashioned by the Danish Law to express… the relationship between the individual, society as a whole and the state. … The code stated that any promise intended to create obligations of a legal nature should be considered as binding irrespective of the form of the promise and whether it related to commerce or any other contractual circumstance. Even a verbal promise to give a present or to sell a property was considered as binding as if it had been in writing. … It is still true in Denmark that a man is a man, his word is his word, and should anyone in public life in modern Denmark fail to deliver on his word or promise, the public will judge him accordingly….

    The most recent and spectacular example of this was when the previous Prime Minister, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen made a public promise in the run-up to the 1998 elections not to tamper with the rules for early retirement. When he did so anyway, after forming a government, he was embroiled in a crisis of confidence from which he never recovered. He lost the next election in 2001, not so much because he had chipped away at the system of early retirement benefits, which most people anyway thought was a sensible thing to do, but because he had breached a fundamental principle of Danish Law, the binding contract, which dates back to the Fifth Book of the Danish Law.’

    As part of this trust in government Danes insist on honesty and transparency. They insist on rigorous scrutiny with access to almost all official records.

    In the economic sphere, they let the economy rip but underpin that very liberal approach with support and retraining for those who are unemployed. The labour market is very flexible. Universal and free education encourages all students, regardless of social background, to achieve their potential. In taxation, husbands and wives are treated separately and on equal footing. Universal day-care for children makes it possible for both parents to work full time. This Danish emphasis on building human capital is not only a key to greater equity but major economic benefits.

    That commitment to human capital development is dramatically shown in its support for skilling in architecture, design and film.

    The Danes have clung to a strong public funder in health and have refused to go down the path of subsidised, costly and inequitable private health insurance

    The Danes have clearly shown the benefits of getting a few important things right. They are pragmatic enough to make major changes when necessary. We could learn something from that in Australia at the present time.

    At its core, the Danes have trust in institutions and government in particular. They see the government as a positive influence. Freeloading by any group or person is not tolerated. Governments in turn must earn that trust. Trust is perhaps a little fuzzy and hard to define. But we instinctively know it is essential in both private and public life.

    The greatest damage to public trust in my lifetime was the dismissal of the Whitlam Government in 1975.Our Governor General and High Court Justices deceived the Prime Minister and damaged our public institutions. We have not recovered from that appalling episode. Our ‘betters’ who extol the importance of institutions and the value of conventions, trust and tradition were the very people who caused such damage.

    We could learn from the Danes about good governance and trust, and the importance of developing human capital. They are the keys to their success.

     

  • John Menadue. What does Labor stand for? Part 6

    You might interested in this repost of part 6 on the economic role of government.

    The economic role of government

    In addition to key principles the second immediate issue is the economic role of government. Those who would benefit from weak and distrusted government have deliberately undermined the legitimacy of the public sector.

    We are often told that there is really no difference between the major parties. In some respects that is unfortunately true but I suggest there is a major and continuing difference. And that difference is over the role of government. The Labor Party has always rejected the view set out in the Liberal Platform ‘that only businesses and individuals are the creators of wealth and employment’

    Australians have been encouraged to forget that their prosperity is based on both public and private goods. To many people government has become ‘invisible’, except as a vehicle for distributive welfare. Australians have lost sight of the contribution of the mixed economy, not only in providing public goods, but also in ensuring that the forces of greed and short-sightedness don’t lead to economic and social collapse. It is noteworthy that despite the continued denigration of government and the public sector, the three most trusted institutions in Australia are public institutions – the High Court, the ABC and the Reserve Bank. In the survey by Essential Research there was not a private group in the top eight most trusted groups and institutions in Australia. The three least trusted groups were business, trade unions and political parties.

    Even conservatives acknowledge that only the public sector can provide some services such as national defence and management of the money supply. In addition, however there are economic functions where private funding or provision is possible but only at high economic cost, with distorted incentives and with serious consequences for equity. These include education, health insurance, energy and water utilities and communication and transport infrastructure. In these and other areas there are market failures for which prudent economic principles require a strong government role in funding or provision. Unless Labor articulates and defends the proper economic role of government – a pre-requisite to improving Australia’s weak taxation base – economic growth will be restrained by inadequate public spending and investment.

    Of these investments, the most important is human capital to ensure that people can develop their capabilities so that they can contribute to their full potential through employment, business or unpaid work. In the competitive global economy of this century, human capital is a nation’s only secure asset. Scandinavian countries demonstrate this. A population with skills and with incentives which match rewards to contribution will draw less on distributive welfare, preserving public revenue for needed social insurance and public goods. The best antidote to disadvantage and low self-esteem is not welfare but well paid and meaningful employment.

    Labor will find it hard to make these investments if it allows itself to be depicted as the party of big welfare spending. In fact conservative governments, because of under-investment in human capital and physical infrastructure, and neglect of economic adjustment, have spent strongly on distributive welfare to compensate for inequalities rising from a weakened economic structure. Over the last 50 years, social security assistance has risen from 5% of Australians’ household disposable income to 12%. Examples of this expanded social security assistance are baby-bonuses, family allowances and superannuation concessions for the wealthy. Governments are moving to wind back some middle class welfare, but the justification is more about immediate budgetary management rather than an expression of principles. Rather, Labor should be the party which ensures that Australia becomes less reliant on distributive welfare. Instead of referring to ‘the education revolution’ in isolation, it should present its human capital policies in the context of a unified set of principles in infrastructure, education, health, environmental  protection, underpinned by principles of investing in capabilities, nurturing individual freedom and autonomy and supporting social inclusion.

    There is an opportunity to differentiate Labor from what has emerged as continuity between Howard and Abbott in that both are strong on distributive welfare while ready to sacrifice other aspects of government which would strengthen the economy’s capacity to provide well-paid and productive employment with less need for social transfers.

    A reframing of policy in terms of strengthening the economy in order to reduce the need for distributive welfare would not only neutralise the ‘right’s’ attack on Labor as the party of the welfare state but would also give a unifying theme to many policies. It would link policies in industry adjustment, infrastructure, education, health and social inclusion. It would overcome the false framing of a trade-off between equity and efficiency. It would give Labor parliamentarians an opportunity to engage more openly with the public without the need for spin and carefully prepared texts.

     

    In the last 5 blogs I have argued that Labor should be explicit about the principles that drive policies and programs. Those key principles were

    Fairness

    Freedom

    Citizenship

    Stewardship and

    Ethical responsibility

    In addition to these principles Labor should stand for democratic renewal, including of itself and the key role of government in a strong economy and society.

     

  • John Menadue. Postcard from Denmark on the Nordic Success

    For holiday reading, you may be interested in this repost.

    I have been interested for many years in the economic and social success of the Nordic countries, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. Together they have a population of about 26 million.

    But what triggered my recent interest and decision to visit Denmark was the sheer pleasure of watching several Danish TV series –Borgen, The Killing, The Bridge. They are the best TV series that I have seen in years and far superior to the tosh that we often get from the US and sometimes from the UK. The Danish film industry receives government finance, but more importantly the Danes have invested heavily in human capital and the talent shows in these TV series. Portrayal of a country’s cultural life is important for the country to understand itself better. But in the case of Danish films, I have found them attractive enough to come and visit Copenhagen and spend some tourist dollars. Although I should say that Copenhagen is expensive.

    In 2012, the World Economic Forum and several related agencies ranked the four Nordic countries the best performing in the world. The ratings covered global competitiveness, ease of doing business, global innovation, corruption perception, human development and prosperity. Whilst the Nordics ranked 1 to 4 in the world, Australia ranked number 12.

    Last year The Economist, a conservative magazine, published a special survey of ‘The next supermodel’. The Nordics were the supermodel. It said ‘If you had to be reborn anywhere in the world as a person with average talents and income, you would want to be a Viking. The Nordics cluster at the top of league tables of everything from economic competitiveness to social health to happiness. They have avoided both southern Europe’s economic sclerosis and America’s extreme inequality. Development theorists have taken to calling successful modernisation “getting to Denmark”.’

    It added ‘The Nordics also offer something for the progressive Left by proving that it is possible to combine competitive capitalism with a large state; they employ 30% of their workforce in the public sector compared with an OECD average of 15%. They are stout free-traders who resist the temptation to intervene even to protect iconic companies. Sweden let Saab go bankrupt and Volvo is now owned by China’s Geely. But they also focus on the long-term – most obviously through Norway’s ($US884billion) sovereign wealth fund and they look for ways to temper capitalism’s harsher effects. Denmark, for instance, has a system of “flexicurity” that makes it easier for employers to sack people, but provides support and training for the unemployed. Finland organises venture capital networks.’

    The Nordics have traditionally had high taxes and high welfare spending along with strong economic growth and low unemployment. But the global financial crisis and membership of the European Union has forced readjustment and reform to reduce taxes and welfare spending.

    These changes are broadly supported by all the major parties. But the sales tax on new cars is still 180%. There are also heavy fuel and parking charges. This shows up in Copenhagen where it is one of the few major cities in the world not being strangled by cars. On the road you have to watch out for bicycles as much as cars. The 25% VAT includes food and restaurants.

    Taxes generally are amongst the highest in the world but the community seems broadly to accept them because it is confident that the government will spend the tax money for worthwhile purposes and with equity.

    In Denmark there are two or three strong parties and four or five other significant parties. No party has won an outright majority since 1901. No single party has formed a government alone since 1982. With multi parties, negotiation and compromise is essential. The record shows that new governments maintain the thrust of previous government policies although making changes around the edges.

    Capitalism is given a fairly free hand and there is acceptance that firms will go bust. But the Danes and others go all out to protect the most valuable resource, their human capital. People who lose their jobs through structural change are given good income support and meaningful retraining.

    The Danes have excellent schools and government funded and free health care. They root out corruption and rent seekers. If only we would do the same! Denmark has one of the most liberal labor markets in Europe with a very high rate of social mobility. In information technology and the internet they are ahead of most. 79% of eligible men work and 72% of eligible women work. Child care is readily available. The Danish gross government debt as a proportion of GDP is well below the US and Europe.

    In Denmark there is a strong tradition of different classes getting along with each other which is not surprising with such a small population (5 million) and a strong neighbour like Germany to the south.

    The absolutist monarchy took serious note of the French Revolution and decided that their survival depended on not resisting democracy and living modestly. Politicians think that it is smarter to be seen riding a bike to work rather than using a government limousine.

    The Nordic model is still work in progress with many changes necessary with I suspect more means testing. But they have probably reached the future ahead of others and are grappling with problems that others will face in the years ahead.

    The major stain on public life in Denmark, as it is with so many other countries in Europe, and even in far-away Australia, is the xenophobic attacks against refugees and migrants by political conservatives. Only last weekend in neighbouring Sweden the anti-immigration party, Sweden Democratic, polled 13% of the vote.

    In my next postcard from Denmark, I will try to describe why the Nordics and Denmark in particular have been so successful, despite high taxes, generous social services and more recently, significant increases in refugees at least compared with the size of their populations.

    Obviously organisation is easier in countries with small populations, but I suspect that the most important reason for Denmark’s success is good government. The Danish people see government not as a dead hand or the purveyor of red tape, but very largely an enabler of opportunity and freedom.

     

     

  • John Menadue. What does Labor stand for. Part 1

    You might be interested in this repost .  It was part 1 of a six part series. Part 6 will be reposted tomorrow.  John Menadue

    Labor’s constituency

    The Labor primary vote has declined from about 45-50% fifty years ago to 35-40% today. Labor has lost its clear identity with the ‘working class’ and what it stands for. Its natural constituency and membership has declined. To contain the loss, Labor has increasingly committed itself to focus groups, marginal seat strategies and ‘whatever it takes’. Values, principles and ideas have given way to marketing of products .Money has replaced membership as the driving force of campaigns. The trade unions remain the most important institutional Labor supporter. The unions have a proud record but their influence is out of proportion to their role in the community and the ‘Labor constituency’.

    Principles as the basis for policy

    If Labor is to differentiate itself from conservative parties, it needs to express that difference in a clear set of principles which accord with the best of Australians’ values. Otherwise the political contest is reduced to satisfying short-term materialist ‘aspirations’, appeasing vested interests and managing the media cycle. In such a contest, Labor is engaged in a futile struggle, for the Coalition is adept at conveying the misleading impression that it is the ‘natural party of government’, particularly because of its supposed competence in economic management. Joe Hockey’s performance as Treasurer shows that this supposed competence is a myth but conservative commentators still persist with the myth.

    From community values a set of principles of public policy can be developed – principles which define Labor in contrast to other parties. Those principles can underpin a coherent set of policies and programs which implement those policies.

    Values > principles > policies > programs.

    Moving to the ‘right’ on issues such as refugee policy and health care simply legitimises the conservative position – a position from where exploitation of people’s fear is likely to drive out sensible and reasonable political debate. Selectively compromising – a little socialism here, a little free market there – as was the strategy of Britain’s New Labour – only confuses Labor supporters and the electorate because it presents inconsistent values.

    Social democrat parties, including Labor, were founded on an optimistic view of human nature and on recognition of the public sphere where people realise their full capabilities. These ideas can be expressed in consistent and coherent principles such as stewardship, the common wealth, including enhancement of social, environmental and institutional capital and protection of natural resources.

    In his emphasis on the ‘social question’, John Curtin gave effect to these principles, acknowledging that only a strong society, including a strong and respected government, can support a strong economy. And of course there is no point in an economy that does not serve social ends.

    Curtin’s social democratic vision contrasts sharply with the Liberal Party platform ‘that only businesses and individuals are the creators of wealth and employment’, a view that reduces government to a burden rather than a contributor to the common wealth. Curtin’s vision contrasts with the notion that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’, which legitimises destructive social divisions, which encourages people to separate themselves from society in physical or metaphorical gated communities (private schools, private health insurance), which allows the connection between contribution and reward to be severed, which encourages rent-seeking, speculation and protection of privilege rather than productive investment and which compensates the ‘losers’ with social security handouts.

    Just as Labor governments provided leadership to face great challenges in the 1980s, so too today Australia faces even greater challenges – climate change, population ageing, dilapidated infrastructure, commodity based exports, deficits in human capital and a weak base for public revenue. The politics of ‘what’s in it for me’ discourages us from facing these challenges, for there will have to be trade-offs: some will have to pay more than others and some will have to forego benefits now for the sake of longer term benefits. Such transitions can be painful, but are more likely to gain support when people understand the principles underpinning public policy.

    When the Labor Party is unified around a set of principles it can still have a robust debate about how to give effect to those principles. But it would be in control of its message because its parliamentary representatives can engage with the electorate in a consistent and sincere voice, with less reliance on ‘talking points’ and spin and with less concern with the immediate reaction of focus groups. Labor supporters would be much more prepared to accept political compromise if they know that there is strong leadership and there is broad agreement on key values and principles. Labor leadership has to be patient and consistent around these values and principles – and never go backwards. Authenticity and sincerity are then easily recognised.

     

  • Andrew Podger. Integrating aged pensions and superannuation.

    Just as the Abbott government sorely needs a coherent health policy, welfare policy and family assistance policy, it should also put time and effort in 2015 into investing in a coherent approach to retirement incomes instead of focusing narrowly on the age pension.

    The budget measures are being stymied by the Senate, not because of poor communications, but because they simply do not stack up as fair and reasonable.

    David Murray’s FSI offers a more considered approach though it too only covers part of the retirement incomes system. Perhaps its most important contribution is Murray’s simple admonition to articulate in legislation the objectives of the superannuation system, the primary one being, ‘to provide income in retirement to substitute or supplement the age pension’.

    The wider retirement incomes system in fact has two objectives:

    1. The alleviation of poverty amongst the aged (addressed mainly by the age pension); and
    2. The maintenance of income and living standards at and through retirement (addressed mainly by superannuation).

    Australia’s ‘multi-pillared’ system (to use the language of the World Bank) has considerable strengths. Its ‘foundation pillar’, the age pension financed by general revenue, addresses poverty alleviation effectively and efficiently. Instead of a ‘pillar one’ national superannuation scheme with unfunded promised benefits, we have ‘pillar two’ mandated contributions and ‘pillar three’ tax-encouraged voluntary savings which are mostly fully funded. In theory at least, our approach imposes less risk on governments and future taxpayers.

    But there are significant weaknesses. The tax concessions for pillars 2 and 3 are very substantial and skewed to those on high incomes; the accumulated savings are not directed efficiently or effectively into retirement incomes; the transaction costs are high; and the system is very complex and places an undue burden on individuals, particularly on older people whose cognitive ability may be impaired (indeed, few financial advisers have an adequate understanding of superannuation products, tax arrangements and the means test). These weaknesses greatly overshadow those the Government has so far tried to address through its proposed age pension measures.

    Murray suggests changes to tax arrangements that would address the scale and distribution of the concessions for consideration through the White Paper process. The scale of the tax expenditures may be of the order of $10 billion (using a comprehensive consumption tax benchmark) rather than the $30 billion (using the comprehensive income tax benchmark) more commonly and inappropriately used, but this is still large, and it is even more skewed to the rich.

    Murray’s suggestions follow the Henry Report approach: taxing contributions at individuals’ marginal tax rates less 20 per cent, and applying a standard (low) tax on fund earnings whether individuals are in the accumulation or de-accumulation phase.

    As Murray highlights, our system’s greatest weakness is in the de-accumulation phase. Too much of the accumulated savings are taken in the form of lump sums and allocated pensions, and too little in the form of annuities or other forms of longevity insurance, with the result that many retirement incomes are lower than they could be, too much is left in unplanned bequests and too many rely on the age pension for their longevity insurance.

    Murray does not go as far as I would in regulating the de-accumulation phase, but he is certainly heading in the right direction. He recommends that funds be required to pre-select a comprehensive income product (which includes insurance against longevity risk) as a default option that individuals would not be required to accept. He believes that most people would accept such a product or buy some other form of insurance against longevity and not rely so much on the age pension, and that as a result they would in fact consume more in retirement knowing they are adequately insured. My own preference would be to mandate some form of deferred lifetime annuity, not only to reduce reliance on the age pension and enhance living standards in retirement, but also to limit opportunities for tax avoidance.

    Murray complements these proposals by recommending the removal of regulatory obstacles to longevity insurance products and greater competition to reduce fees.

    Two other aspects of the system were not within his terms of reference: pension indexation and the age pension age, the only aspects so far addressed by the Government.

    The Government rightly wants to move away from indexation based on average earnings (AWOTE). This index will move faster than community incomes as the population ages. But while CPI would protect the real incomes of pensioners, it is not appropriate as the sole adjustment factor in the longer-term. This will be most obvious to all if the Government sticks to it in February’s Inter-Generational Report: forty years of CPI-only indexation will reveal a dramatic reduction (up to a third) in the pension relative to community incomes.

    There is a case for some reduction in the relative level of the pension. Rudd’s costly increase in 2009 following the Harmer Report (which was in response to Abbott’s reckless promise of a $30 a week increase) contributed much of the sharp increase in social security outlays in recent years and crowded out much higher priority increases in assistance for the unemployed, sole parents and those in private rental accommodation.

    Once appropriate relativities are in place, all social security payments need to be regularly adjusted by more than CPI to maintain them. Biennial independent reviews should be set in legislation so that appropriate adjustments are made beyond automatic CPI indexation.

    The Government’s proposal to increase the age pension age to 70 is over-the-top – the currently legislated increase to 67 comes on top of the very cost effective measures since the 1990s to phase out wives’ pensions, widow class B pensions and pensions for women under 65. We do not need to press everyone to work until age 70.

    As Murray demonstrates, there are much better ways to improve the retirement incomes system, and to make budgetary savings.

    Andrew Podger is Professor of Public Policy at ANU. He was formerly Secretary of the Department of Health and Ageing.

     

    This article was first published in the AFR on 6 January 2015.

     

     

  • Building more roads is not 21st century thinking.

    In my blog of 3 January, I discussed our love affair with cars and how cars are crippling our cities.

    In the SMH on January 12 this year, Jacob Saulwick takes up the issue of our failure to face up to the futility and cost of building more roads. See link below to the article. John Menadue.

     

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/building-more-roads-is-not-21st-century-thinking-20150111-12lstx.html

  • John Menadue. Getting back on the front foot.

    The tide is turning on climate change. It is going out on Tony Abbott and Rupert Murdoch. They will never admit it but the efforts of the Rudd and Gillard Governments will be vindicated.

    It is time for the ALP to really go onto its front foot on climate change. In recent months they have been extraordinarily quiet. It is not good enough to rely on the failures of the Abbott Government. The ALP needs to develop and prosecute its own policies.

    People in South Australia must be extremely worried about recent bushfires and now predicted heavy rainfalls. But we are hearing little from the ALP about climate change. The Opposition’s Shadow Minister for The Environment, Climate Change and Water, Mark Butler, comes from South Australia.

    The evidence on the dangers of climate change is mounting almost daily. Australians are feeling and sensing that weather patterns are changing significantly. The climate change deniers, like Tony Abbott, Alan Jones, Maurice Newman, Dick Warburton and Rupert Murdoch, will surely find that their denial has been unwise and damaging to our national interest.

    Tony Abbott tells us that one of his great political successes has been the abolition of the carbon tax. His opposition to the tax was one of his ‘signature policies’. Increasingly we are coming to see that he has misled us. The carbon tax and the associated emissions trading scheme were necessary and good policies.

    The evidence on climate change is mounting month after month after month.

    Last week the Australian Bureau of Meteorology told us (see link here) http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

    • 2013 was our warmest year since records began in 1910. 2014 was our third warmest year. The 2014 spring was the warmest on record. Our mean average temperature in 2014 was 0.91 degrees above the 1961-1990 average.
    • Globally, 2014 may be the warmest year on record. No year since 1985 has observed a below average global mean temperature and all of the ten warmest years have occurred since 1998.
    • In Australia there was near average rainfall in 2014, but it was dry in the East and along the West coast.
    • Sea surface temperatures have remained high around Australia, with all five years between 2010 and 2014 within the eight warmest years on record.
    • There was extreme heat and significant warm spells.
    • There were significant bush fires, particularly in early spring.

    Despite Tony Abbott and Rupert Murdoch and the deniers, public opinion is shifting. In a survey released in 2014 the Lowy Institute showed the first increase in public concern over climate change in six years.  Almost two thirds of respondents said the government should be giving leadership on climate change.

    The international climate change conference in Peru late last year showed an increasing willingness by countries to take action on climate change.

    Despite attempts by Tony Abbott to sideline climate change at the G20 meeting in Brisbane, the presidents of the US and China signed a major agreement to combat climate change.

    In the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s most eminent climate scientists overwhelmingly agreed that climate change is a serious and developing problem.

    Pope Francis will weigh in in a few months’ time with the first ever Vatican teaching on climate change.

    But here, the Australian Government is rolling out its pay the polluter Direct Action Plan and trying to wind back the renewal energy target.

    Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce in October last year outlined his plans on competitiveness in agriculture and how farmers needed to adapt to climate variability. But there was no mention of climate change. This is quite remarkable as there is probably no group in Australia that is likely to be more affected by climate change than Australian farmers. But tagging along behind the Liberal Party for the sake of a few ministerial posts, the National Party is failing to provide effective leadership for rural Australia.

    The tide is turning on climate change.

  • Walter Hamilton. Crunch Time for Abenomics

    Is it time to declare Abenomics, the recession-busting strategy of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a failure?  If so, was the recent Japanese election purely an exercise for Shinzo Abe to protect himself and the ruling coalition from a half-awake electorate before the deluge?

    Launched with much fanfare in 2012, Abenomics promised to cure deflation, revive economic growth, break down structural rigidities in the economy, unlock the talents of women in the workplace and salvage the nation’s deficit-drowned budget. In two years, it has achieved none of these objectives; nor, arguably, has it brought any of them within reach.

    Deflation:

    After briefly ticking up to around 2% per annum––the central bank’s target––Japan’s core inflation rate has declined again to 0.7%, with some major retailers reporting a further drop in turnover during the recent end-of-year sales. One of the paradoxes of the current situation is that, despite historically loose monetary policy, money in circulation is tight. Japanese households, once famous for their high savings ratio (20%+), are now forced to dip into their savings (i.e. the nation’s domestic savings ratio has turned negative) just to keep their heads above water.

    Growth:

    Recent GDP data revealed Japan had fallen back into recession. Domestic demand remained a drag, as was––more surprisingly––private investment. The economy has contracted in six of the past 11 quarters for which official data are available. Manufacturers have lowered their expectations, according to the latest Tankan survey, the most authoritative indicator of future trends. If the GDP figure comes in positive for the final quarter of 2014, as some predict, it will be because a weaker yen has helped to boost external demand. However, with European economies going backwards, Chinese growth abating and the U.S. recovery maturing, an export-led recovery hardly seems feasible.

    Structural Rigidities:

    Structural change is harder to achieve in any economy and must be considered a medium to long-term objective. The problem is that the Abe Government has not clearly articulated what Japan’s future economy should look like. Though it has declared a willingness to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership––the regulatory and investment treaty being promoted by the United States––negotiations between Tokyo and Washington have been painfully slow. Interest groups hostile to the TPP, from the medical to the agricultural sectors, are doing their best to hold up a deal. Free trade agreements with China and South Korea remain a long way off, partly because of soured political relations.

    Lately, Abe has put more emphasis on corporate tax reform. One of the ruling coalition’s first actions after being re-elected was to approve a cut in the corporate tax rate by 2.5 percentage points to 32.1%, effective from this April. Another cut to 31.3% is due to follow a year later. The government also delayed the next scheduled consumption tax increase and unveiled a slew of other tax changes and incentives, although nothing radically new was announced. Whether these measures can stimulate demand remains doubtful, given that less than a third of Japanese corporations, according to Reuters, are actually paying tax (the rest are either unprofitable or making use of credits from earlier losses).

    Women:

    Abe says he wants more women to stay in the workforce (60% quit work when they have their first child) and be given opportunities to advance (female representation on company boards is just 1%). But he is up against a competing lobby among his conservative allies who want greater action to stem Japan’s falling birthrate. Some progress has been made­­––for instance, an expansion of childcare places––but there is a deep-seated cultural bias in the workplace against full female participation. Long hours of overtime remain the norm in companies, big and small. Studies have shown that the overtime ‘phenomenon’ has less to do with lifting productivity than with maintaining male-dominated corporate hierarchies. Anecdotally there is little evidence of change.

    Deficit:

    Government debt in Japan, equivalent to more than two years of gross domestic product, has continued to climb under the Abe administration. The fiscal 2015 budget is likely to add about 38 trillion yen (A$380 billion) to the debt. Few observers now believe the government can meet its target of balancing the primary budget (excluding debt serving commitments) by 2020. Fiscal hawks, however, are fighting a rear-guard action, and social security spending is being screwed down, further widening the gap between the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots’ in society. With fiscal expansion apparently no longer an option, there is a growing tension within Abenomics between expansionary and contractionary policy settings.

    Upside:

    The most important, and unexpected, wind-shift in favour of Japan, in recent months, has been the collapse in the prices of oil and other natural resources. The depreciation of the yen, engineered by the central bank to help revive corporate profits and support employment, had led to a sharp increase in the prices of finished imported goods and in the input costs of businesses. Energy imports swelled Japan’s large trade deficit, especially after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, but significant relief can be expected in 2015.

    Wages:

    For some observers, the key to the success or failure of Abenomics is wages growth. Professor Hiroshi Yoshikawa of Tokyo University is one prominent economist who has argued that reversing falling wage-rates, and not monetary easing (the primary focus of Abenomics Mark I), is the way to break the deflationary spiral. Abe’s own economic advisers have derided Yoshikawa’s thesis, but it seems the more pragmatic Abe is starting to pay attention to the professor. At their annual end-of-year soiree, Japanese captains of industry were exhorted by the prime minister to use higher profits to pay higher wages this year. While pressure from the top will probably have some effect, big companies may hand out larger bonuses (which can be adjusted downwards again later) rather than increase base pay-rates.

    The year ahead:

    Having just returned from a fortnight in Japan, my impression is that conditions have not fundamentally improved. It is easy to gain a false impression, if you are a tourist who only visits the corridor between Tokyo’s Ginza and Shibuya districts, where glitzy retail outlets always seem to have well-heeled customers. But go to the outer suburbs of the capital or to provincial towns and you will find evidence of continuing economic stress: shuttered commercial streets, miserably low casual wage-rates, depopulation, and decaying infrastructure.

    Even in the trendier parts of Tokyo, businesses are struggling to attract customers. One anecdote will suffice. I took lunch at a new restaurant in Aobadai that, judging from the smart décor and linen service, could be expected to leave me $50-$75 out of pocket for my meal, if it were in Sydney or Melbourne. I selected a course that included soup, bread, salad, pasta, dessert and coffee. The food was beautifully prepared, delicious, and in generous proportions. It cost me $11. How the restaurant could pay its rent, wages and materials costs, and still make a profit, was a complete mystery.

    Japan seems to be surviving on a mysterious, mathematics-defying, leap of faith. Perhaps what we are witnessing will, in time, bear out the old adage ‘it is always darkest before the dawn’. Though I would never underestimate the capacity of the Japanese to reinvent themselves, it is hard to escape the conclusion that something just doesn’t add up.

    Journalist and author Walter Hamilton reported from Japan for eleven years for the ABC.

     

     

     

  • Corporate tax avoidance.

    The Parliamentary Library has prepared a report for the Senate inquiry into corporate tax avoidance.  The report provides background on this issue as well as a summary of what other countries are proposing to address corporate tax avoidance by multinational companies. See link to report below.  John Menadue

    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2014/December/Senate_inquiry_into_corporate_tax_avoidance

  • A taxing tale of two peak bodies.

     

    In the SMH on 2 January, Michael West drew attention to the ways that two BCAs were treated differently. The Blind Citizens Australia (BCA) learned that it had been subject to federal government funding cuts. Another BCA, the Business Council of Australia, did much better. ‘Only a week earlier the government had backflipped on a proposed tax-avoidance reform entailing some $600 million in tax deductions that multinational companies could claim on interest on their debts in offshore subsidiaries.’ For the full story from Michael West see link below.  John Mendue

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/a-taxing-tale-of-two-peak-bodies-20150101-12gcty.html

  • Max Corden. Without revenue, Australia can only have half a budget debate.

    The missing element in this week’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, and more broadly, in current government policy, stares Australians in the face. Revenue needs to be increased. Increasing taxes, reducing tax concessions and eliminating loopholes are all options, which I and other commentators have argued for.

    For example, journalist Peter Martin has shown that if compulsory superannuation contributions were taxed as income, i.e. like wages (rather than being taxed at a concessional rate) there would be a net gain to the budget of approximately A$12 billion a year. But there are many other measures to consider, all designed to increase revenue. Prominent is the ending of negative gearing.

    Many of these possibilities, and more, were discussed in the Henry tax review, with many more expected to be discussed in the forthcoming white paper on tax reform. But this should have been the first order of business. This is where the solution to the “budget crisis” lies. There is, indeed, no reason why there should be a crisis.

    Corporations and households all borrow – and as a result go into debt. Why can’t governments do the same? At present Australia’s federal public debt is modest (relative to GDP) compared with the debt of most comparable countries. Why then create this air of panic or, at least, guilt?

    Click to enlarge

    There are two explanations.

    The first is that the Coalition has demonised deficits. In its view Labor produced deficits for several years but it – the Coalition – will produce surpluses by some specified time. It seems they believed in the demons they created, and as a result made unwise promises. Perhaps they genuinely believe that deficits are “bad””. Some of them even thought that the deficits of 2008-9, which were produced deliberately for Keynesian reasons to avoid excessive unemployment during the global financial crisis, were dangerous.

    There is a second, more rational, explanation for being concerned about budget deficits and setting the attainment of a surplus as a target. Too much debt leads to having to pay higher interest rates and, with the accumulation of debt, a bigger burden on the budget. All this is obvious. But there is the problem of political discipline. Less discipline on spending leads to more debt. Someone who has a tendency to alcoholism is wise to stay off alcohol altogether. This is the argument from prudence. But it can be carried to extremes, as it is at present.

    It is quite surprising that in the mid-year update there is a massive concern about a budget deficit and the objective of getting to surplus, relative to a concern about the state of the economy at a time when there is excessive unemployment. Is the government’s focus sensible?

    Click to enlarge

    The blame game

    Treasurer Joe Hockey blames (1) the sharp fall in the iron ore price, (2) the Senate and (3) the adverse inheritance from the previous government. With regard to commodity prices, one can never foresee world price changes precisely, but way back in the Howard years, when the iron ore price rose so much, there were plenty of people who saw the probability – not the certainty – of a later decline, and recommended caution (Ross Garnaut was one of them).

    With regard to the cross-bench Senators, they have reflected public opinion. They simply bear out the observation that the biases of the budget, as originally presented by the Treasurer, were not in tune with Australian historical attitudes and public opinion.

    Click to enlarge

    To what extent are the policy decisions of previous governments to blame for excessive spending commitments? The Gonski education reforms and the proposed establishment of a Disability Insurance Scheme under the Gillard government can take some of the blame. Perhaps there were other (possibly irresponsible) decisions as well. But what the budget statement seems to ignore is the severe harm done by the “Howard Gift”, namely the five personal income tax reductions and superannuation concessions of the Howard Coalition government.

    The elephant in the room

    Commentators like me are sometimes accused of being “economic rationalists”. Well, this is an area where more rational thinking is needed. The GST might be broadened and increased (though Hockey seems loathe to do so). Even the carbon tax might be reinstated, since it would both help to finance the budget substantially and bring about a desirable reduction in carbon emission. Both these widely-canvassed and very rational ideas, while economically sound, would encounter political and public opposition, particularly the broadening of the GST. Bipartisanship is needed here.

    Given the missing elephant of revenue, the mid-year update can be summarised as follows: Government spending can and will be cut, but the possibility of increasing revenue is not considered. The Australian government is required to live within its means, the means being defined as ruling out measures that generate extra revenues. The aim is to minimise the size of government irrespective of the purposes and efficiencies of the various governmental activities.

    The only hopeful sign is the admirable recent decision of the government to produce its tax white paper in 2015, which presumably includes the possibility of increasing revenue – the missing element in the budget update.

    Max Corden is Professorial Fellow in the department of Economics at University of Melbourne.

    This article first appeared in ‘The Conversation’ 19 December 2014.

  • John Menadue. Is the state being captured by special interests?

    In his recent book, ‘The Origin of Political Order and Political Decay’ Francis Fukuyama of ‘End of History’ fame, focuses on how even developed and democratic societies can be captured by powerful vested interests. He suggests that this has happened in the US with the coalition of extremists in big business, the Republican Party and the Tea Party.

    First there was the crippling of the political process in the US with money and lobbying; then followed the capture of the state.

    It is a warning for us. We have the institutions of democracy- responsible government, a parliamentary system, the rule of law and a ‘free’ press. But we run a serious risk of these institutions being hollowed out by powerful, wealthy and unrepresentative vested interests.  In Australia we are seeing what Ross Garnaut has called a ‘diabolical problem’, the power of the polluter lobby. Ken Henry has spoken of the appalling public debate on key issues.

    Perhaps the only US lobby group that we are not tracking is the gun lobby

    There is no better illustration of the threats we face than donations by the rich and powerful to buy favours from political parties and the state. The US sets an appalling precedent with its Supreme Court opening the flood gates for political donations.

    Our mining sector has an effective veto on mining tax reform. For $20 million the mining lobby threatened the elected government and saved itself billions of dollars in tax. Will any Australian government in future ever seriously address reform of our mining taxes?

    The payment of tax in Australia by many wealthy people and large corporations is optional. It is costing us tens of billions of dollars each year. Fifty seven percent of our ASX100 companies have subsidiaries in tax havens. One third of the top ASX200 companies pay company taxes of 10 % or less. The statutory rate is 30%. We need to hear from senior executives before a Royal Commission how  companies like Westfields, Glencore, Ikea, Google, Apple and News Ltd can avoid so much tax.

    Wealthy and powerful interests are handed out tax benefits in superannuation deductions, capital gains, negative gearing, family trusts, salary packaging and subsidies to coal, oil and gas companies. Yet we are told that we have to cut back on welfare concessions to fund the disability program. Australian government expenditure is one of the lowest in the developed world but wealthy interests keep proposing cuts to government spending and cuts in taxation.

    With over 60% of newspaper circulations in Australia, News Ltd is a major supporter of vested interests including Big Tobacco. It is an obstacle to informed debate on key public issues. News Ltd aided our disastrous involvement in Iraq and is vehemently opposes serious action on carbon emissions. News Ltd is polluting the public debate in Australia more than any other company.

    The ABC is under attack by News Ltd and other powerful interests.

    With journalists under-resourced, the media depends increasingly on the propaganda and promotion put into the public arena by vested interests. The Australian Centre for Independent Journalism at UTS found in a survey of major metropolitan newspapers published in Australia in 2010 that 55% of content was driven by public relations handouts from lobbyists and their associated public relations arms.

    There are over 900 full time independent lobbyists working in Canberra. That is over 30 lobbyists for every Cabinet minister. On top of these third party lobbyists there are special interests who conduct their own lobbying, e.g. Australian Mining Council and Australian Pharmacy Guild. On top of these lobbyists in Canberra, there are the lobbyists in state capitals. These lobbyists encompass the whole range of interests; mining, clubs, hospitals, private health funds, business and hotels that have all successfully challenged government policy and the public interest.  They are doing great damage in undermining the public interest.

    The health ‘debate’ is really between the Minister and the Australian Medical Association which opposes workforce reform, the Australian Pharmacy Guild that restricts competition, Medicines Australia which exploits its monopoly pricing power and the private health insurance companies which get a taxpayer funded subsidy of over $6 b per annum to undermine Medicare. All these vested interests effectively push aside the public interest.

    The wealthy private schools, with their influential alumni, lobby against needs-based funding which is necessary for both equity and efficiency.

    Most of the business economists that we see on television to ‘inform’ us are employees of banks and other financial institutions. They are unlikely to tell us about the conflict of interest of financial advisers employed by the banks. Public intellectuals have gone missing in action.

    Many of the ‘think tanks’ that pose as independent are funded by secret and  powerful interests. Yet we take them seriously.

    The wealthy polluters successfully destroyed an emission trading scheme and the carbon tax. We no longer have any credible program to reduce carbon emissions.

    We have seen enormous concessions given to casino operators without proper public processes and transparency.  The casino operators lobby both sides of politics.

    The wealthy and powerful have little sense of their enormous privileges and the damage that they are wreaking. During the debate on the mining tax we had the richest people in Australia such as Gina Rinehart and Twiggy Forrest protesting from the back of trucks about how the poor mining companies were being threatened. They should have been laughed off the political stage but we took them seriously. They tell us that the sky will fall in if their privileges are challenged. .

    One of the objectives of the privileged and News Ltd in particular is the discrediting of the whole political process and politicians. They are concerned because it is through political action that their privileges will be challenged. They tell us that only the private sector produces benefits for the community and that the government is both a burden and inefficient. Yet governments have been great contributors in the past and must be in the future.

    The discrediting of our parliament and government reached a peak during the last parliament with disruption and wild accusations of corruption. We need to improve our political processes because they are essential to any reform of our democratic institutions and countering vested interests.

    We face a serious threat with the hollowing out of our democratic institutions through the actions of wealthy and powerful vested interests. We should not take our liberal democracy for granted. It faces a serious threat from within.

    It is getting late and dark.

    Where is the protest movement to check the abuses by the wealthy and powerful and the takeover of the state for their own purposes?

  • The Chinese are coming.

    After WWII the financial hegemony of the US and Europe in the IMF and International Bank was established. Later, the Japanese came to dominate the Asian Development Bank. That is now being challenged by China. See article below by William Pesek in ‘Bloomberg View’, subject ‘China steps in as world’s new bank’.  John Menadue.

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-25/china-steps-in-as-worlds-new-bank

  • John Menadue. Our love affair with cars.

    We are infatuated by the convenience of our cars, particularly at holiday time.

    There are clearly major economic and social benefits but the costs both economic and social are going to become much more apparent. How can we continue to realise the benefits of car travel, but minimise future costs.

    There are enormous political problems in addressing the cost of traffic accidents, traffic congestion and carbon pollution from cars, but we need to start thinking seriously about a suite of options to minimise the damage that cars will continue to inflict on our economy and society. It is not only a political problem in terms of disruption of our lifestyles but the political problem is intensified because of the power of the automobile lobby and the large construction firms who want to keep building more and more freeways and tollways.

    I posted two earlier blogs on this subject. They were ‘Increasing the petrol tax is good policy’ on 9 May 2014 which included an earlier post, ‘Cars are killing our cities’.

    Some people suggest that public transport is the answer to the damage caused by car accidents, car congestion and pollution. But it is only part of the answer. Cities like London and Paris have very good public transport systems, but they still have problems of car congestion, accidents and pollution.

    The fact is we need to curb our use of cars.

    In 2013 a report by eight of the nation’s transport, health and planning organisations estimated that congestion on our roads is costing Australia about $10 billion p.a. This is projected to increase to $20 billion by 2020.

    The Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics estimated the cost of road accidents at $17.85 billion in 2006. When the cost of loss of life is included, the total cost of road crashes increased to $28 billion in 2006. There are reservations about these estimates, but they are the best that are available. Almost all commentators believe that the cost of road accidents is conservative and in any event the data is eight years old.

    According to the Australian Government Department of the Environment, ‘transport’ contributed 17% of our greenhouse emissions in 2013-14. The highest contribution of greenhouse gasses was ‘electricity’ which contributed 33% of greenhouse emissions.  Clearly greenhouse emissions from transport are a serious problem.

    We need to consider seriously a range of measures to maximise the benefits of car travel and to minimise the cost.

    We invariably complain about the cost of petrol, but we pay some of the lowest petrol prices in the OECD and petrol prices in Australia today are the lowest for four years. In the September quarter this year only Canada, Mexico and the US amongst OECD countries paid less for petrol than we did. The tax component of our petrol prices was the fourth lowest in the OECD. For these and other reasons, I support the government’s reintroduction of the indexation of petrol taxes which John Howard abandoned in 2001. Reintroduction of the indexation of fuel excise would be useful transport policy to discourage car use as well as making a small contribution to the budget.

    The Henry Tax Review recommended a traffic congestion tax. Well implemented, a congestion tax would encourage more rational use of our roads. We would have an incentive to travel outside peak congestion periods. It would provide an incentive for employers and for schools to move to more flexible work and school hours. London and Singapore have taken action on traffic congestion with clear public support.

    Just as the sensible carbon tax was designed to impose a charge on companies that pollute so motorists should pay a tax when they choose to travel in peak hours. Such a tax would have to be a state tax. Who is game!

    We need to consider increased sale taxes and registration fees. In almost every respect these imposts in Australia are much lower than in the rest of the world. In Denmark the sales tax on cars is 143%, in Finland 53%, the Netherlands 48% and Sweden 30%. In Australia it is 10%.

    A feature of many European countries is smaller cars, not the large SUVs that are so common in Australia. A Toyota Hilux emits double the carbon dioxide of a Toyota Carola. In addition to the high levels of pollution from large vehicles they obviously occupy more road and parking space. A useful approach would be to increase the sales tax and registration fees of these larger vehicles and reduce the fees for smaller vehicles with a neutral financial result for the government. Higher fuel excise would also discourage car use.

    We also need to tighten emission standards for all our vehicles. The Climate Change Authority says that the new tougher emission standards to operate from 2018 are one of the best and least costly options available to reduce carbon emissions from cars. In doing so we would bring Australian emissions into line with international standards.

    We also need to ensure that in future there is effective integration of transport and urban development policies. So often urban planning is deficient where there is no convenient or efficient means of transport except by car.

    These issues will involve hard political decisions. We cannot put off indefinitely addressing the problems of car use.

    In the short term we should be very cautious about repeated proposals from federal and state governments for more and more ‘freeways’ that only shift the bottleneck and line the pockets of construction and finance companies..

    We do need improved public transport and many major cities of the world show that that is possible. But we can’t avoid facing up to our own infatuation with cars. We are all guilty of helping to kill our cities.

    .

  • Glencore buying Rio Tinto could burn hole in Hockey’s pocket.

    In the SMH on December 20, 2014, Michael West draws attention to Glencore’s checkered history on paying tax and the consequences for Joe Hockey’s budget if Glencore acquired Rio Tinto.

    Michael West said that ‘billions of dollars in tax payments are on the line, not to mention job losses and the spectre of this country seeding control over a large chunk of its natural resources to a secretive group of commodity traders ultimately run out of Switzerland.’

    Glencore has a colourful history. According to an Australian public radio report the company was founded by Marc Rich and Company in 1974 by billionaire commodity trader Marc Rich who was charged with tax evasion and illegal business dealings with Iran in the US, but pardoned by President Clinton in 2001.

    For link to Michael West’s article, see below.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/glencore-buying-rio-tinto-could-burn-hole-in-hockeys-pocket-20141219-12ao4a.html

  • John Menadue. Capitalism and the fall of communism

    In this blog on 5 November I drew attention to an article by the Economics Editor of the Guardian Larry Elliott. In that article Elliott said “As the Berlin Wall fell, checks on capitalism crumbled.”  The principal thesis of that article was that with the end of communism capitalism became more aggressive and less inhibited. He said

    The fear that workers would ‘go red’ meant that they had to be kept happy. The proceeds of growth were shared. Welfare benefits were generous. Investment in public infrastructure was high. But there was no need to be so generous once the Soviet Union was no more. What was known as neoliberal economics was born in the 1970s but it was not until the 1990s that market forces reigned supreme. The free market spread to poorer parts of the world where it has previously been off limits, expanding the global workforce. That meant cheaper goods, but it also put downward pressure on wages. What’s more, there was no longer any need to be inhibited. Those running companies could take a bigger slice of profits because there was nowhere else for workers to go. If its citizens did not like ‘reform’ of welfare states, they just had to lump it.”

    This is not a new thesis, but it is becoming more and more urgent as a result of growing inequality.

    And inequality is becoming more entrenched and apparent as we see the massive scale of tax avoidance by large multinational companies like Google, Westfields, Apple, Amazon, Ikea, News Corp, Glencore/Xstrada and hundreds of others. Taxes which we pay to maintain a civilised society are becoming optional for the wealthy and powerful.

    In the next week or so I will be posting articles by Ian McAuley on this issue – capitalism, society and morality.

    I think that there is widespread evidence that with the end of communism and the fall of the Berlin Wall 25 years ago, capitalism has become less restrained, and more aggressive. The neoliberal theorists told us that if the rich have more money through tax reductions and other benefits they will invest more and the poor would get the ‘trickle down’ benefits.  This has not happened.

    • There is growing concern across the world about the rise of inequality and the destructive social and economic consequences. Thomas Piketty in his book Capital in the Twenty First Century draws attention to the long term trend to greater inequality. This book is terrifying conservatives. Inequality has become a major issue in the US where the process began with Ronald Regan and his neoliberal supporters. Alan Kohler in the Business Spectator points out that “rising inequality began in the 1980s and was the direct result of Reganomics and its pursuit of tax breaks for the rich”. Regan also set about quite deliberately to cripple the trade unions. This crippling of the trade unions and the tax benefits for the rich in the US have bought enormous benefits for the wealthy and a major skewing of income with disastrous effects on the economy and political life where wealthy vested interests can, in effect, buy governments. Even Rupert Murdoch has shown his concern by hopping on the bandwagon about growing inequality. But his concern is not convincing when we know that in the last 16 years he has paid $US 600 million in salaries to himself, his children and a few senior executives.
    • Maggie Thatcher followed suit in the UK. She said there was no such thing as society, only individuals and markets. This has culminated in what the Governor of the Bank of England said in May this year that “capitalism is at risk of destroying itself and that bankers have an obligation to create a fairer society”. He added “the basic social contract at the heart of capitalism was breaking down with rising inequality.” He warned “my core point is just that as any revolution eats its children, unchecked market fundamentalism can devour the social capital essential to the long term dynamism of capitalism itself…Capitalism loses its sense of moderation when the belief in the power of the market enters the realm of faith”.
    • The neoliberals present their case in terms of how they favour an open and competitive market when in practice a major objective is to favour capital against labour and reduced competition. In Australia, market based approaches to climate change through carbon taxes or an emissions trading scheme are rejected in favour of government handouts to polluters. Vested interests are able to bring influence or buy governments in a way not possible 25 years ago before communism collapsed.
    • We have seen rapacious banks with their obscene executive salaries bring the world economy to its knees in the global financial crisis.
    • In Australia we have a government that speaks about ending the age of entitlement but seems more determined to extend the benefits of the privileged. We have a Royal Commission that is allegedly about corruption but I suspect that the real agenda is to cripple the trade unions, the strongest countervailing force for justice in the Australian economy and society. The CFMEU and the HSU are fair game but not the much more culpable Commonwealth Bank.

    In my blog of 20 September this year, What does Labor stand for?” I emphasised that only a strong society, including a strong and respected government can support a strong economy. There is no point in an economy that does not serve social ends.

    There is a prevailing view by the present government, as the Liberal Party platform says “that only businesses and individuals are the creators of wealth and employment”.  As I said in that September blog this Liberal Party view sees government as a burden rather than a contributor to the common wealth. There is a danger that the increasingly unrestrained power of capital and big business legitimises destructive social divisions which encourages people to separate themselves from society in physical or metaphorical gated communities such as schools and hospitals. It allows the connection between contributions to be severed. It encourages rent-seeking, speculation and protection of privilege rather than productive investment. Increasingly, companies in Australia are paying large amounts out in dividends, buying back shares and sitting on idle cash rather than investing in the future of the Australian economy and Australian jobs. There are not many ’trickle down’ benefits in all of this.

    The fall of communism has emboldened the exponents of capitalism. There is a continual assertion of the importance of business over and against society and the community.

    Pope Francis is one clarion voice saying that business and the market must be underpinned by morality.  He has challenged market fundamentalists who hawk ‘trickle down’ theories as naive. He has denounced the new tyranny of unfettered capitalism and calls inequality ‘the root of social evil’. He is a lonely voice at the moment.

    Ian McAuley will be discussing these issues in a series of articles starting later this week in this blog.

    The fall of communism is proving to be a great boon for the powerful at the expense of the powerless. The restraints on the powerful are crumbling.

  • Luigi Palombi. It’s time to fix the free trade bungle on the cost of medicines.

    Ten years on from the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement, Australia is entering another round of negotiations towards the new and controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership. In this Free Trade Scorecard series, we review Australian trade policy over the years and where we stand today on the brink of a number of significant new trade deals.


    Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership present an opportunity to correct a mistake made a decade in the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement, which led to Australia paying higher prices for pharmaceuticals.

    In July 2004, Tony Abbott, then health minister in the Howard government, issued this statement:

    The price of pharmaceuticals will not rise as a result of the AUSFTA…

    Contrast this to what the Abbott government’s first budget, in May this year, told Australians:

    Over the past decade the cost of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule (PBS) has increased by 80%.

    To be sure, the “price of pharmaceuticals” is not the same thing as “the cost of the PBS”. But since the PBS is responsible for providing medicines to the vast majority of Australians, it is reasonable to infer that a contributing factor has been a rise in the price of pharmaceuticals. It is also reasonable to infer that the AUSFTA is partially to blame for that rise.

    The legislative instrument through which the AUSFTA was implemented is the US Free Trade Agreement Act 2004. The Therapeutics Goods Act 1984 was also amended to require companies seeking marketing approval for a pharmaceutical to provide a patent certificate as part of the Therapeutic Goods Administration’s (TGA) regulatory assessment process.

    The patent certificate must say if the sponsored medicine will “infringe a valid claim of a patent that has been granted in relation to the therapeutic good (being the patented medicine)” in question. It must also notify the patent holder.

    Otherwise known as “patent linkage”, the application for regulatory approval creates a link between a patented medicine and a possible generic substitute.

    The patented medicines are categorised as F1 formulary medicines, which means there is no approved substitute.

    When a generic medicine comes onto the market, these drugs are contained in the F2 formulary. Generic medicines contain the same active ingredient or have the method of production to the patented drug, or they may be similar in terms of its administration, dosage, method of treatment or indication.

    How does ‘patent linkage’ play out in Australia?

    “Patent linkage” provides advance warning to a patent owner, usually the manufacturer of a patented medicine, that a generic medicines’ manufacturer is about to enter the market with a competing and cheaper substitute medicine.

    With the knowledge that a generic medicine will trigger an automatic 16% price drop for the patented medicine – and result in its transfer from the F1 formulary to the F2 formulary – the patent owner applies to the Federal Court of Australia for a preliminary injunction.

    The injunction is normally granted and as a result, the marketing of the generic medicine is delayed by an average of three years.

    This means that the patented medicine stays in the F1 formulary. This affects the pricing of that medicine not only because the price is higher, but also because medicines in the F2 formulary are subject to mandatory price disclosure. This tends to exert downward price pressure on all medicines within the F2 formulary.

    For a generic manufacturer to defeat the injunction, it must mount a challenge to the validity of the allegedly infringed patent. The average cost of patent litigation is about A$5 million and requires a team of specialist patent lawyers, patent attorneys and highly skilled experts.

    In addition to the legal cost, the generic manufacturer is, by effect of the injunction, denied sales revenue for the duration of the injunction – not to mention the opportunity cost it incurs as its workforce diverts attention to the patent litigation.

    Patent linkage refers to the link that regulatory approval creates between a patented medicine and a possible generic substitute.Sarahbean/Shutterstock

    In Australia, legal costs follow the event, meaning that should the generic manufacturer lose, it will also be required to pay a significant percentage of the legal costs incurred by the patent owner in defending its patent.

    So, it is critical that a generic company carefully assess any patent that puts at risk a proposed generic medicine launch. This assessment costs money. And unfortunately, because of differences in patent law around the world, it is impossible for a generic manufacturer to extrapolate the results of a patent challenge in one country to that in another.

    How does it affect medicine prices?

    The longer a medicine remains in the F1 formulary, the higher the cost of that medicine to the PBS. This, combined with the consequences on price once that medicine moves into the F2 formulary, creates a significant incentive for patent owners to stop generic competition.

    Patent owners encircle a valuable patented medicine with a series of “evergreening” patents. These usually apply after the patent (for the active ingredient) has or is about to expire. This can extend patent protection beyond the normal 20 to 25 year period to a period closer to 40 to 50 years.

    Unfortunately, the profit margin for generic manufacturers has fallen significantly due to the price disclosure mechanism, while the cost of patent litigation has risen significantly. Consequently, the capacity of generic manufacturers to assume the risks involved in risky and expensive patent litigation has fallen dramatically.

    In the absence of any serious intervention by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, it is likely that fewer “evergreening” patents will be challenged in the future. This means that more medicines will remain in the F1 formulary and for a longer period and the costs of medicines will rise.

    A consequence of price rises, particularly at a time of economic austerity, is that newer medicines are not being listing on the PBS. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee, which decides which drugs will be subsidised through the PBS, for instance, recently rejected the costly drug Sovaldi, despite effectively treating hepatitis C virus infection.

    If the Abbott government wishes to limit the annual cost increase of the PBS to 4%, it is critical that only medicines that are truly innovative and deserving of patent protection remain in the F1 formulary. If room in the PBS is to be made for medicines such as Solvadi, then it is essential for more of the older F1 medicines be moved into the F2 formulary more quickly.

    The cost of the PBS has risen by 80% in the past ten years. It’s likely that without the AUSFTA, the cost of the PBS, and by inference the cost of medicines, would have risen by much less.


    This article draws on research prepared for the 2014 Workshop “Ten Years since the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement: Where to for Australia’s Trade Policy?”, sponsored by the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, UNSW Australia.

    Luigi Palombi is Adjunct Professor at Murdoch University. This article was first published in ‘The Conversation’ on 21 October 2014.