Category: Politics

China is on the march to a dominant military footprint while American policy lacks strategic intent. (more…)

Political time seems absurdly compressed at present.  Everywhere.  It used to be that a week is a long time in politics: currently, in Britain, even a day seems long and bafflingly eventful.  Writing about those events – let alone actually understanding them – seems almost impossible.  Is it because modern politics induces otherwise sensible people to rampage into irrationality?  Around the world, the art of the possible has become the indulgence of zealotry, the yearning for monoculture and scorn for compromise. (more…)

The Battle for the South Pacific is on! China is already in Australia’s backyard, the South Pacific, wooing and cultivating friends with soft power.  As part of China BRI initiative, Chinese investment with the South Pacific nations totalled US 1.78 billion outstripping Australia’s AUD137M for subsea internet cable connecting Australia-PNG-Solomon Islands.  The current scorecard is China 10 nations and Australia 2 nations.  Is Australia’s or New Zealand’s security being threatened?  Would the formation of a South Pacific block a risky option for Australia or New Zealand economic health? Or if you can’t beat them, join them? (more…)

A glance at the increasingly Monty Pythonesque British/English Brexit illustrates the intra-European constitutional crisis of just how difficult it is to leave a multinational partnership of 40 years’ vintage – and how disastrous it will be economically, socially and, since it has a xenophobic tinge in origin, morally. A side effect of Brexit is an internal UK constitutional crisis which, internationally, has thus far concentrated on Northern Ireland’s desire to maintain the Good Friday Agreement which stipulates regulatory harmonisation between the NI and the Republic. Peace between Orange and Green is predicated on maintaining a seamless border which could be shattered by Brexit, especially, if, as looks increasingly likely, May’s hapless Government ends up with a “no deal” exit from the EU. Less apparent is the internal constitutional crisis featuring the pesky Scots. Let me spill the beans. (more…)

America First is not necessarily Australia First. That is, leaving aside the biological or human tendencies to be ‘tribal’ or sectarian etc, in my opinion, the Australian perspective, mindset and psyche as to how China and the Chinese are viewed must obviously be different from the Americans. It is and must in fact be based on our Australian historical experience and relationship and our close geographical and time zone proximity with China and the Chinese. (more…)

I try to refrain writing about Trump, he gets much more attention than he deserves! But the problem with Trump is not Donald Trump. The problem is not the people that elected him, nor the media that supports him. It is not the Republican party, or the support of the National Rifle Association, the Ku Klux Klan and the Koch brothers. Nor is his misogyny, disdain for truth and inability to express anything but simple – often incoherent – sound-bites or tweets what should give us the most concern. The really scary part is that nobody is standing up to him. (more…)

In what is perhaps a fantasy endeavour – to find Trump’s objectives in recent travel and assess outcomes – I suggest three. And in this essay, I look further into global and perceptual actions and needs… and the lack of decent vision in Australia. (more…)

I meant “wouldn’t” denuclearize.   (more…)

Trump has shown little political savvy and even less powers of analysis. However, it is hard to see the USA as having the moral high ground to justify the hysterical moral outrage generated by Trump’s incompetence when it has done exactly the same thing many times in many places. Syria is a case of double standards. Great powers always promote their own interests irrespective of their domestic arrangements. Americans don’t care about MH17 because lots of Americans were not involved so Trump was not going to raise that with Putin – if he was even aware of it. Australia would be well advised to keep out of this but we won’t because MH17 is important to us.   (more…)

Given the unexpected pace of events in recent weeks, the end of Syria’s seven-year agony appears to be very near. It is now all but certain that Bashar al-Assad’s government will win its long war against Sunni jihadists and their foreign supporters. The focus in Syria is already turning from conflict, casualty counts, and displacement to reconciliation, resettlement, and reconstruction. (more…)