The melodramatic media story about the small Chinese naval flotilla exercising with “live” ammunition off the Australian and New Zealand coasts has run solid for more than a week. I’m beginning to suspect the Chinese military may have a sense of humour.
Here the political snafu, led by the ABC, has been fixated by the superficial issues around whether the People’s Liberation Army Navy Surface Force (aka the Chinese navy) gave late notice, or no notice, to Australian authorities of live-firing exercises in international waters. Apparently a Virgin Airline pilot was ahead of the game by reporting a “stay clear” warning from the Chinese navy ships. Australian media went into a spin about when the PM knew, how much warning had been given and what this all means for Australia’s “tricky relationship” with China.
Just before the story ran out of steam with a “so-what?’” shrug, a surprise development took it off life-support. The big reveal, reported last Wednesday by the ABC, was that Australian Defence officials believed that a Chinese nuclear powered submarine could be accompanying the task force. Senate Estimates heard from RAN Chief Admiral David Johnson:
The Defence Force chief told the committee that it was not clear if a Chinese submarine was in waters near Australia. “I don’t know whether there is a submarine with them. It is possible task groups occasionally do deploy with submarines but not always,” he said.
So, nothing new known – no facts to go by, but the real yarn was now there in plain sight. Our Chief Admiral knew as much as you and I do about what the Chinese were up to and how potent their “visiting” naval force is. Apparently less than Virgin Airline pilots. A day later our all-American Defence Minister Richard Marles weighed in with his admission that he didn’t know either. Maybe this time better to have said nothing, Mr Marles.
Hold on. Did the Admiral say a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine? Isn’t that what we are supposed to be getting by the 2040s? That’s a big worry for those Australians who lay awake at night anxious about the coming Chinese invasion. After all, Age/SMH journalist Peter Harcher told us in his 2023 ’Red Alert’ series war would likely happen within three years. In fact, he upped the ante later that year claiming that China’s “war” with the West was already underway. His latest sermon is a warning to Australians that we are now wedged between the hard rock of Chinese aggression and the sliding “degression” of military support from Trump’s United States. This writer thinks he’s probably half right. We are rapidly descending into strategic irrelevancy in the new Trumpian world order.
Readers of Pearls and Irritations well know the solid case that has been argued by many experts against the folly of the AUKUS pact with the United States and the United Kingdom. As former Foreign Minister Gareth Evans said recently:
Australia’s no-holds-barred embrace of AUKUS is more likely than not to prove one of the worst defence and foreign policy decisions our country has made, not only putting at profound risk our sovereign independence, but generating more risk than reward for the very national security it promises to protect.
Evans also asked the pertinent rhetorical question about whether the 40-year lead-time for delivery of the last SSN AUKUS submarine risks unacceptable capability gap issues in Australia’s naval defences. The answer, of course, is yes. The appearance of the Chinese navy flotilla off our coastline has almost certainly answered that question for us.
So let’s take a reality check. China clearly has the capability and operational willingness to send powerful modern warships, including nuclear submarines, into Australian waters to show us a glimpse of their military might. To give the Murdoch press its due, Ben Packham reported the salient facts in the The Australian on 25 February. He noted the 112 vertical launch missile cell firepower of the 12,000 tonne Renhai-class destroyer, the Zunyi. It is, he says, part of a sub-fleet of eight destroyers built by China in just eight years. Packham notes that, by contrast, the RAN “fields its smallest and oldest fleet in decades”.
Aside from the RAN’s ageing Collins class submarines — all six of which were recently out of action at the same time — the RAN combat fleet is limited to three Hobart class destroyers and seven Anzac-class frigates. This is the situation at the same time Marles is handing $798 million in Australian taxpayer dollars as tribute to the US for second-hand Virginia class submarines that “we hope” will be delivered by 2032. A good fiction writer would be hard pressed to make this account of weakness and deference believable.
But for those Australians concerned about the defence of the nation the news that the People’s Liberation Army now has the largest navy in the world must be a big concern. Perhaps some of the senior Defence boffins will prepare fresh briefings for Marles. Their briefing notes should reflect, firstly, the RAN’s current capability to deter, counter or overcome any hostile intent from the Chinese naval flotilla now steaming off our coastline. Second, the briefings should provide an estimation of the comparable fleet capabilities over a 5-, 10- and 15-year timeline. Note this is well in advance of the delivery of the SSN AUKUS fleet to be built in collaboration with the United Kingdom by 2040. Game over, I’d say.
I’m no military expert, but like many Australians it looks like AUKUS in Wonderland has become a bipartisan fantasy that no-one wants to defend – and yet no-one has the political courage to end. In that sense, the Chinese navy has done Australia a huge favour by demonstrating the futility of trying to contain its naval forces. New Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins said as much after her country had spoken to Chinese officials.
A very long time ago my mother dried my tears and told me to make friends with the boy who was throwing rocks at me and had a better aim. I took her advice and we made up and remain lifelong friends. Perhaps we Australians should stop whingeing about rising Chinese power and try to see through the other end of the looking glass. A first step might be to invite the captain of the Zunyi to bring his magnificent warship into a major Australian port for an open day. The kids would love it and our local tourist operators would be delighted to play host to a bevy of polite Chinese sailors. They might even invite Marles to come aboard.
Postscript: Writing this op-ed I heard AFR journalist and noted China hawk Phil Coorey giving his opinion to ABC Radio Adelaide on the “Chinese ship situation”. Coorey joked that the missing Chinese submarine might well be on its way to Adelaide. For those interested in naval history there is a fascinating book available on the last time a foreign submarine approached Adelaide. “U-Boat Far From Home” is the story of the epic voyage of U-862 to Australia and New Zealand in December, 1944. Compellingly written by ex-RAN officer David Stevens, the book tells of the approach U-862 made to Adelaide before heading south to Cape Jaffa, where Korvettenkapitan Heinrich Timm ordered his crew to open fire on a Greek freighter, the Ilissos. The surprised Ilissos returned fire with a single deck gun and almost sank the submarine. U-862 survived that contact and the war after sinking six ships. She initiated the largest submarine hunt ever undertaken in Australian waters and then slipped safely away to sail undetected around New Zealand. It seems we had no luck detecting a single marauding diesel-electric German U-boat in our waters 80 years ago. Perhaps the RAN might want to ask Stevens back for a history lesson.
Kym Davey
Kym Davey is a human rights advocate and former Commonwealth and State public servant. He is a member of Labor Against War.