Opposition Leader Peter Dutton would withdraw Australia’s bid to co-host next year’s global climate summit if the Coalition wins the federal election.
Australia has lobbied hard for the right to host the talks, known as COP31, in conjunction with Pacific nations. Australia has emerged as a leading contender, and has the backing of most countries in its United Nations grouping, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada and New Zealand.
However, Dutton has described the idea of hosting the UN climate conference as “not something we are supporting – it is madness”. He also falsely claimed it would cost Australia “tens of billions” of dollars to host the event.
Australia would reap big benefits by hosting the high-profile global talks. It would likely attract considerable investment in renewables and clean energy export industries, and strengthen Australia’s national security during a time of increasing geostrategic competition in the Pacific. To pull out now would be a costly move.
Decision deferred until June
The decision on who will host COP31 in 2026 was expected at last year’s summit in Azerbaijan. But it was deferred until June this year – after Australia’s next federal election.
Hosting rights are shared between five UN country groupings on a rotational basis. The final decision is made by consensus.
Australia’s bid to host with Pacific nations has considerable support. But Turkey, the only other country in the running, has so far resisted lobbying efforts to persuade it to drop out.
An economic boost for Australia
Hosting the UN climate talks would be a massive economic opportunity for Australia.
COP31 would be one of the biggest diplomatic summits Australia has ever hosted. Tens of thousands could be expected for a fortnight of negotiations, with satellite events held across the nation and the Pacific.
Adelaide is in the box seat to play host. The South Australian Government estimated hosting the UN talks could generate more than A$500 million for the state. But economic benefits would be much wider, and longer-lasting, than tourism receipts from those attending. The talks are a chance to attract investment for Australia’s energy transition and for clean energy industries of the future, including critical minerals and green iron.
The UK Government’s assessment of the value of hosting the UN climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 found the net economic benefit was double that spent – about A$1 billion. That includes benefits from trade deals and foreign investment. With abundant critical minerals, and excellent wind and solar resources, Australia has even more to gain.
Hosting the summit is a chance to attract the investment needed to replace ageing and unreliable coal-fired power stations. According to the Clean Energy Investor Group, which represents the capital behind large-scale renewables, more than 70% of the investment in clean energy comes from international sources.
Dutton says he plans to replace coal with nuclear power (and to rely on gas until nuclear plants are built decades from now). The Coalition’s nuclear plan would require hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer support.
Securing Australia’s place in the Pacific
Working with Pacific nations to address climate change is key to Australian national security.
Australia aims to be the security partner of choice for Pacific island countries. And Pacific island countries are crystal clear: climate change is their “single greatest threat”.
In 2022, the Solomon Islands signed a security deal with China, which raised the prospect of a potential Chinese naval base in Australia’s maritime approaches. Foreign Minister Penny Wong — who was in opposition at the time — described it as the worst foreign policy blunder in the Pacific since the end of World War II.
The Albanese Government has looked to cement Australia’s place in the Pacific by working with island nations to address climate change. In July 2022, Albanese joined Pacific leaders to declare a Pacific climate emergency and launched the bid to co-host a UN climate summit with Pacific nations. In 2023, Australia signed a climate migration deal with Tuvalu that also prevents Tuvalu from pursuing a security deal with China.
Pacific leaders have welcomed Australia’s plans to host the UN climate talks and have agreed to work together to advocate for the joint bid. Walking away now could do real damage to Australian strategy in the region.
Embracing Australia’s clean energy future
Hosting COP31 is a chance to set up Australia’s economy of tomorrow, signalling the shift from fossil fuel heavyweight to clean energy superpower.
Australia is leading the clean energy transition. This is a story to tell the world. One in three households have rooftop solar. Already 40% of the main national power grid is powered by wind, solar and storage. We are on track for 80% renewables by 2030.
South Australia is moving even faster and is set for 100% clean electricity by 2027. Hosting COP31 in the state would also be a chance to showcase clean energy export industries, especially plans to produce green iron and green steel at the Whyalla steelworks.
Australia is the world’s largest exporter of raw iron ore, but is well positioned to export more valuable, and lower polluting green iron to major economies in our region. The potential export value of green iron is estimated to be A$295 billion a year, or three times the current value of iron ore exports.
More broadly, our clean energy exports — including green metals, green fertilisers and green fuels — could be worth six to eight times more than our fossil fuel exports.
Walking away from the chance to host the world and showcase our clean energy future would be costly indeed.
Republished from THE CONVERSATION, 31 March 2025
Disclosure statement
Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia
Wesley Morgan
Dr Wesley Morgan is a research associate at the Institute of Climate Risk and Response at UNSW.
He has written widely on climate change, and international relations in the Pacific islands. His research considers the ways countries work together at the UN to tackle climate change, and integrate climate change into their foreign policy and national security strategies.
Wesley also has over a decade’s experience living and working in the Pacific islands, where he worked as Pacific Policy Advisor with Oxfam, and taught postgraduate courses in diplomacy at the University of the South Pacific.
Wesley’s research considers the impacts of climate change on Australia and Pacific island countries, and the international context for Australian climate policy.
Wesley is a fellow at the Climate Council and a research fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute (Griffith University).